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Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference Nov. 6-7, 2017 Baltimore, MD Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview Sebastian Lutz, Varun Mahajan Sponsored by

Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview Sebastian Lutz, Varun ... · Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference . Nov. 6-7, 2017 . Baltimore, MD . Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview

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Page 1: Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview Sebastian Lutz, Varun ... · Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference . Nov. 6-7, 2017 . Baltimore, MD . Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview

Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference

Nov. 6-7, 2017

Baltimore, MD

Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview

Sebastian Lutz, Varun Mahajan

Sponsored by

Page 2: Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview Sebastian Lutz, Varun ... · Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference . Nov. 6-7, 2017 . Baltimore, MD . Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview

Corporate Clients | Equity Markets and Commodities | 2017

Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview

EBIG Conference

Session 1A (6 November 2017)

1045 – 1215 Hrs

Page 3: Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview Sebastian Lutz, Varun ... · Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference . Nov. 6-7, 2017 . Baltimore, MD . Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview

Retirement planning is a marathon, not a sprint!

consistency

high volatility cheat days

changing regulations new shoes

low interest rates

uncertainty

financial crisis

Sebastian Lutz | Corporate Clients | Equity Markets and Commodities | 2017 1

Page 4: Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview Sebastian Lutz, Varun ... · Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference . Nov. 6-7, 2017 . Baltimore, MD . Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview

Primary Risk Areas in Life Insurance Products

Marketing and customer behaviour

Equity Risk

Interest Rate Risk

Mortality Risk

Risk 1

Risk 2

Risk 3

Risk 4

2 Sebastian Lutz | Corporate Clients | Equity Markets and Commodities | 2017

Page 5: Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview Sebastian Lutz, Varun ... · Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference . Nov. 6-7, 2017 . Baltimore, MD . Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview

Put Call Parity or the redistribution of returns

Source: John C. Hull, Options, Futures and Other Derivatives (8th ed. 2012)

How to build guarantees?

3 Sebastian Lutz | Corporate Clients | Equity Markets and Commodities | 2017

Page 6: Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview Sebastian Lutz, Varun ... · Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference . Nov. 6-7, 2017 . Baltimore, MD . Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview

Underlying

› Global equity benchmark indices:

US: S&P 500, Nasdaq, Russell 2000, etc.

Europe wide: Euro Stoxx 50, Stoxx 600, etc.

Europe: FTSE 100, DAX, CAC, FTSE MIB, etc.

Asia/Pacific: HSCEI, Nikkei 225, KOSPI, ASX, etc.

› Global single stocks:

Large/mid cap stocks that are part of the major equity benchmark

indices

› Commodities & Real Estate:

Broad commodities index: CBCICOCA, etc.

Single commodity: Gold, Oil, Copper, etc.

Exchange-traded REITs & replicable real estate indices

› Hybrid asset class:

Linked to equity, rates, commodity and real estate indices

Payoff

› Vanilla:

Delta -1,asset-backed financing, calls, call-

spreads, collars, puts, put-spreads

› Light exotic options:

Basket options, barriers, digitals, etc.

› Exotic options:

Cliquet, autocalls, worst of / best of,

reverse convertible, himalaya, etc.

› Rules-based strategies:

Volatility control, risk parity, momentum,

mean reversion, low volatility, etc.

› 3rd party managed portfolios:

Actively managed portfolio by 3rd party

asset managers (subject to guidelines &

constraints

› to hedge a variety of payoffs linked to a wide range of underlyings customized for your insurance product

› OTC Equity Options:

Executed under

ISDA/CSA

› OTC Equity Swaps:

Executed under

ISDA/CSA › Bespoke indices:

Creative strategies tailored for powerful results

Wrapper

Payoff

Underlying

A building set

Sebastian Lutz | Corporate Clients | Equity Markets and Commodities | 2017 4

Page 7: Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview Sebastian Lutz, Varun ... · Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference . Nov. 6-7, 2017 . Baltimore, MD . Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview

Source: John C. Hull, Options, Futures and Other Derivatives (8th ed. 2012)

The basics of fixed index annuities

Option

Premium

Value of Option

at Maturity

t0 T

Capital-

guarantee

5 Sebastian Lutz | Corporate Clients | Equity Markets and Commodities | 2017

Fixed

Income

Investment

𝑲𝒆−𝒓𝒕

𝑲

Page 8: Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview Sebastian Lutz, Varun ... · Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference . Nov. 6-7, 2017 . Baltimore, MD . Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview

Strike Price Implied Vol. Vega Rho (+10BPS)

100% 5.2% 13.2% 0.39% 0.047%

Long Call – 1Year S&P 500 Index

-40.00%

-30.00%

-20.00%

-10.00%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150%

Underlying price (%)

Payoff (%)

Source: Commerzbank AG, Bloomberg (Date October 16th)

6 Sebastian Lutz | Corporate Clients | Equity Markets and Commodities | 2017

Page 9: Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview Sebastian Lutz, Varun ... · Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference . Nov. 6-7, 2017 . Baltimore, MD . Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview

7.50%

12.50%

17.50%

22.50%

27.50%

32.50%

37.50%

42.50%

47.50%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Implied 1YVolatility

RealizedHistorical 1YVolatility

Implied 1Y VolYearly Average

RealizedHistorical 1YVol YearlyAverage

Max:11/12/2008

48.69%

Min: 7/18/2017

12.62%

Source: Commerzbank AG, Bloomberg, black line shows realized volatility over the previous trading days of 1 year

Implied vs. Historic Volatility – S&P 500 Index

How low is volatility at the moment?

7 Sebastian Lutz | Corporate Clients | Equity Markets and Commodities | 2017

Page 10: Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview Sebastian Lutz, Varun ... · Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference . Nov. 6-7, 2017 . Baltimore, MD . Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

16.00%

18.00%

20.00%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Constant Rate Dividend Rate

1.92% 2.07%

Min: 7/18/2017

4.86%

Max: 11/12/2008

18.78%

Source: Commerzbank AG, Bloomberg (Date October 16th), calculations based on black-scholes model with historic implied volatility using constant rate and dividend.

How could option prices on SPX look like?

8 Sebastian Lutz | Corporate Clients | Equity Markets and Commodities | 2017

Page 11: Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview Sebastian Lutz, Varun ... · Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference . Nov. 6-7, 2017 . Baltimore, MD . Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview

-10.00%

-7.50%

-5.00%

-2.50%

0.00%

2.50%

5.00%

7.50%

70% 80% 90% 100% 105% 110% 115% 120% 125%

Underlying price (%)

Payoff(%)

Call Spread Price Implied Vol. Vega Rho (+10BPS)

100% / 105% 5.2% - 2.5% = 2.7% 13.2% / 11.3% 0.03% 0.014%

100% / 110% 5.2% - 0.9% = 4.3% 13.2% / 9.8% 0.14% 0.030%

Call Spread – 1Year S&P 500 Index

Source: Commerzbank AG, Bloomberg (Date October 16th)

9 Sebastian Lutz | Corporate Clients | Equity Markets and Commodities | 2017

Page 12: Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview Sebastian Lutz, Varun ... · Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference . Nov. 6-7, 2017 . Baltimore, MD . Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview

The Cliquet – 1Year S&P 500 Index

-10.00%

-7.50%

-5.00%

-2.50%

0.00%

2.50%

5.00%

7.50%

70% 80% 90% 100% 105% 110% 115% 120% 125%

Local Cap Global

Floor Price

2% 0% 2.6%

5% 0% 4.7%

Date SPX Closing Performance

9/30/2016 2168.27 -0.12%

10/31/2016 2126.15 -1.94%

11/30/2016 2198.81 3.42%

12/30/2016 2238.83 1.82%

1/31/2017 2278.87 1.79%

2/28/2017 2363.64 3.72%

3/31/2017 2362.72 -0.04%

4/28/2017 2384.2 0.91%

5/31/2017 2411.8 1.16%

6/30/2017 2423.41 0.48%

7/31/2017 2470.3 1.93%

8/31/2017 2471.65 0.05%

9/29/2017 2519.36 1.93%

Payoff(%)

Underlying price (%)

Source: Commerzbank AG, Bloomberg (Date October 16th)

>

%0,%,100minmax12

1 1t t

t CapIndex

IndexNotional

10 Sebastian Lutz | Corporate Clients | Equity Markets and Commodities | 2017

Page 13: Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview Sebastian Lutz, Varun ... · Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference . Nov. 6-7, 2017 . Baltimore, MD . Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview

Call Spread Collar Price Implied Vol. Vega Rho (+10BPS)

90% / 100% / 110% - 2.6% + 5.2% - 0.9% = 1.7% 17% / 13.2% / 9.8% -0.17% 0.057%

-100.00%

-90.00%

-80.00%

-70.00%

-60.00%

-50.00%

-40.00%

-30.00%

-20.00%

-10.00%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

0% 30% 60% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150%Underlying price (%)

Payoff (%)

Short OTM Put

Long ATM Call

Short OTM Call

Short OTM Put Long ATM Call Short OTM Call

90% 100% 110%

Source: Commerzbank AG, Bloomberg (Date October 16th)

Call Spread Collar – 1Year S&P 500 Index

11 Sebastian Lutz | Corporate Clients | Equity Markets and Commodities | 2017

Page 14: Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview Sebastian Lutz, Varun ... · Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference . Nov. 6-7, 2017 . Baltimore, MD . Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview

Option Prices

1Y SPX Index Options

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130%

-10.00%-7.50%-5.00%-2.50%0.00%2.50%5.00%7.50%

10.00%12.50%

70% 80% 90% 100% 105% 110% 115% 120% 125%

-100.00%

-80.00%

-60.00%

-40.00%

-20.00%

0.00%

20.00%

0% 30% 60% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150%

Source: Commerzbank AG, Bloomberg (Date October 16th)

-4.00%

-2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

70% 80% 90% 100% 105% 110% 115% 120% 125%

-10.00%

-7.50%

-5.00%

-2.50%

0.00%

2.50%

5.00%

7.50%

70% 80% 90% 100% 105% 110% 115% 120% 125%

ATM Call

5.2%

Call Spread

100% Call / 110% Call

5.2% - 0.9% = 4.3%

Multiplicative Cliquet

5% Cap 2% Cap

4.70% 2.60%

%0,%,100minmax12

1 1t t

t CapIndex

IndexNotional

Call Spread

100% Call / 105% Call

5.2% - 2.5% = 2.7%

Call Spread Collar

100% Call / 110% Call / 90% Put

5.2% - 0.9% - 2.6% = 1.7%

12 Sebastian Lutz | Corporate Clients | Equity Markets and Commodities | 2017

Page 15: Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview Sebastian Lutz, Varun ... · Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference . Nov. 6-7, 2017 . Baltimore, MD . Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview

-10.00%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

100.00%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140%

Strike Price Implied Vol. Vega Rho (+10BPS)

100% 5.27% 13.2% 0.39% -0.052%

Long Put – 1Year S&P 500 Index

Underlying price (%)

Payoff (%)

Source: Commerzbank AG, Bloomberg (Date October 16th)

13 Sebastian Lutz | Corporate Clients | Equity Markets and Commodities | 2017

Page 16: Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview Sebastian Lutz, Varun ... · Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference . Nov. 6-7, 2017 . Baltimore, MD . Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview

Hedging and basis risk conundrum

VA

Policy

General Account

Separate Account

INSURER

Capital Market

Hedges

Short “Delta”

≤ 100% of Premium

Fund

Performance

Long “Delta”

= 100% of Premium

Mutual Fund

Units

Commerzbank/

Exchange

Mututal Funds

Manager

~ Potential offset opportunity

Protection

Wrapper

OTC Equity Options:

Executed under ISDA/CSA

Payoff

Put, Put-Spreads

Underlying

14

Variable Annuities

In a typical VA set-up, the policyholder gets “long exposure” to a single or multiple mutual funds via the separate account

The policyholder also gets downside guarantees (i.e. put option) on the mutual fund performance via the general account

The hedging of a put option requires creating a “short exposure” on the underlying asset; however, it is not possible to physically short

sale a mutual fund

The basis risk arises as the put option on mutual fund is hedged by creating a short exposure on a proxy basket of benchmark equity and

bond indices (through exchange-traded futures or OTC total return swaps) as opposed to the mutual fund itself

However, by definition, the amount of short exposure is always less than the amount of long exposure; it should therefore be possible to

offset the short against the long by optimising the product and/or fund design

As opposed to underlying investments in funds another solution is to create investment options that are indexed based or Etfs. These

could be hedgeable and mitigate Basis risk. Thereby being efficient for the manufacturer and low cost for the investor

Sebastian Lutz | Corporate Clients | Equity Markets and Commodities | 2017

Page 17: Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview Sebastian Lutz, Varun ... · Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference . Nov. 6-7, 2017 . Baltimore, MD . Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview

Varun Mahajan | Corporate Clients | Equity Markets and Commodities | 2017

Exploring a different engine behind Variable

Annuities An Introduction to iCPPI technology

Page 18: Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview Sebastian Lutz, Varun ... · Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference . Nov. 6-7, 2017 . Baltimore, MD . Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview

Variable Annuity Hedging

Source: Ernst & Young

Variable

Annuity

Hedging

Liquidity

Risk

Surrender

Risk

Equity

Volatility

Risk

Gamma

Risk

Interest

Rate Risk

Gap Risk

FX

Volatility

Risk

Interest

Rate

Volatility

Risk

Switching

Risk

Longevity

Risk

Lapse

Risk

Dividend

Risk

Mortality

Risk

Basis

Risk

Counterp

arty Risk

Collateral

Risk

Op

Risk

Key

Person

Risk

Model

Risk

Spread

Risk

Regulatory

Risk

› Key VA Risks

› Capital Market Risks

› Actuarial/ Behaviour Risks

› Ancillary Risks

› In short, VA is a complicated

derivative !

› Possible to mitigate some risks

through clever product design;

hard to substantially simplify

through incremental changes

› Explore an alternative technology

to power Variable Annuities:

“iCPPI”

› Pros and cons

Varun Mahajan | Corporate Clients | Equity Markets and Commodities | 2017 16

Page 19: Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview Sebastian Lutz, Varun ... · Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference . Nov. 6-7, 2017 . Baltimore, MD . Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview

iCPPI Products in Africa, Asia & Europe

Absa

ING Fideuram

Zurich

Metlife

Generali

BT Capital

Mercer

Life Co + Bank

Varun Mahajan | Corporate Clients | Equity Markets and Commodities | 2017 17

Page 20: Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview Sebastian Lutz, Varun ... · Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference . Nov. 6-7, 2017 . Baltimore, MD . Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview

Gap

To understand iCPPI, we first need to understand CPPI

Current

Asset

Value

Cushion

Growth

Assets

Safe

Assets

Multiplier

The Concept:

The Mechanism Explained in 7-steps:

› CPPI = Constant Proportion Portfolio

Insurance

› An asset allocation technique to

protect investment capital over time

› Invest in Growth Assets during

market rallies and shift capital to Safe

Assets during drawdowns

› Works for “Liquid” investments only

› Current Asset Value less acceptable

Minimum Asset Value = “Cushion”

(i.e. loss absorption capacity)

› Allocation to Growth Asset =

Cushion x Multiplier (pre-determined)

› Multiplier >1 => Gap Risk

What is it ?

How does it work ?

Growth Assets Safe Assets Capital

Preservation

1 2 3 5 4 6 7

Varun Mahajan | Corporate Clients | Equity Markets and Commodities | 2017 18

Acceptable

Min.

Asset

Value

Page 21: Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview Sebastian Lutz, Varun ... · Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference . Nov. 6-7, 2017 . Baltimore, MD . Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview

10% Correction in

Growth Assets i.e.

$8 reduction

Simple Illustration of CPPI Concept – Day 1 & Day 2 (Example #1 of 3)

Net

Asset

Value

(NAV)

$100

Cushion

$20 Growth

Assets

$80

Safe

Assets

$20

Multiplier

(4x)

Calculation Asset Allocation

Net

Asset

Value

(NAV)

$92

Cushion

$12 Growth

Assets

$48

Safe

Assets

$44

Multiplier

(4x)

Calculation Asset Allocation

Day 1 Day 2

Varun Mahajan | Corporate Clients | Equity Markets and Commodities | 2017 19

Protection

Floor

$80

Protection

Floor

$80

Page 22: Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview Sebastian Lutz, Varun ... · Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference . Nov. 6-7, 2017 . Baltimore, MD . Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview

25% Correction in

Growth Assets i.e.

$20 reduction

Main Issue with CPPI Concept – Cash Lock Risk (Example #2 of 3)

Net

Asset

Value

(NAV)

$100

Cushion

$20 Growth

Assets

$80

Safe

Assets

$20

Multiplier

(4x)

Calculation Asset Allocation

Net

Asset

Value

(NAV)

$80

Cushion

$0

Growth

Assets

$0

Safe

Assets

$80

Multiplier

(4x)

Calculation Asset Allocation

› No further participation in Growth Assets

Day 1 Day 2

Varun Mahajan | Corporate Clients | Equity Markets and Commodities | 2017 20

Protection

Floor

$80

Protection

Floor

$80

Page 23: Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview Sebastian Lutz, Varun ... · Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference . Nov. 6-7, 2017 . Baltimore, MD . Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview

CPPI Illustration Through Time

21

t T

Guarantee

Present Value

of the

Guarantee Cash Lock Risk; no future allocation

to Growth Assets feasible in a

‘classical/mutualised’ CPPI

Cushion

Protection Floor

(Present Value of

the guarantee)

NAV

The higher the Cushion,

the higher the allocation

to Growth Assets.

Varun Mahajan | Corporate Clients | Equity Markets and Commodities | 2017

Page 24: Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview Sebastian Lutz, Varun ... · Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference . Nov. 6-7, 2017 . Baltimore, MD . Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview

31.25% Rally in

Growth Assets i.e.

$25 gain

CPPI Advantage – Open-ended Protection & Profit Lock In (Example #3 of 3)

Net

Asset

Value

(NAV)

$100

Cushion

$20 Growth

Assets

$80

Safe

Assets

$20

Multiplier

(4x)

Calculation Asset Allocation

Day 1 Day 2

› One can ‘choose’ to lock-in $20 of profit !

Net

Asset

Value

(NAV)

$125

Cushion

$25 Growth

Assets

$100

Safe

Assets

$25

Multiplier

(4x)

Calculation Asset Allocation

Varun Mahajan | Corporate Clients | Equity Markets and Commodities | 2017 22

Protection

Floor

$80

Protection

Floor

(80% of

highest

daily

value)

$100

Page 25: Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview Sebastian Lutz, Varun ... · Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference . Nov. 6-7, 2017 . Baltimore, MD . Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview

Introduction to iCPPI ( i = individualised )

23

Contribution

options (a)

Withdrawal

options (b)

Guarantee (3)

Investment (1)

Term (2)

One-off Regular Ad-hoc

% of net

contributions

% of highest

Account Value

% Withdrawal

for Life

Equity funds Bond Funds Multi-Asset

Funds

5 Years 10 years

Lump Sum Annuity Ad-hoc

20 years

P

O

L

I

C

Y

C

H

O

I

C

E

S

C

P

P

I

M

E

C

H

A

N

I

S

M

A

S

S

E

T

A

L

L

O

C

A

T

I

O

N

3

2

1

a

b

Growth Assets

Safe Assets

Individualised policy

choices

Daily, individualised

CPPI mechanism

Individualised

asset allocation

Individuals with different

circumstances

Varun Mahajan | Corporate Clients | Equity Markets and Commodities | 2017

Page 26: Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview Sebastian Lutz, Varun ... · Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference . Nov. 6-7, 2017 . Baltimore, MD . Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview

How iCPPI can provide flexibility through time

24

Contribution

Holiday

Additional

Contributions

Withdrawals

Sum of contributions

Portfolio value

time

$

Payment Flexibility

Sum of contributions

Portfolio value

Protected value

time

$

80% of

contributions

100% of

contributions

100% of highest

Account Value

Protection Flexibility

100%

80%

Source: FNZ

Varun Mahajan | Corporate Clients | Equity Markets and Commodities | 2017

Page 27: Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview Sebastian Lutz, Varun ... · Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference . Nov. 6-7, 2017 . Baltimore, MD . Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview

How iCPPI can solve CPPI cash-lock issues

25

Cushion

$20 Growth

Assets

$80

Safe

Assets

$20

Multiplier

(4x)

Safe

Assets

$80

25% correction

i.e. $20 loss $100

contribution Safe

Assets

$80 Cushion

$0

Growth

Assets

$0

Safe

Assets

$20

Cushion

$4 Growth

Assets

$16

Safe

Assets

$84

Multiplier

(4x)

”More of the same”

”New lease of life”

Day 1 Day 2 Day 2+

$20 new

contribution

Varun Mahajan | Corporate Clients | Equity Markets and Commodities | 2017

Protection

Floor

$80

Protection

Floor

$80

Protection

Floor

$20

Protection

Floor

(80%)

$80

Protection

Floor

(80%)

$96

Page 28: Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview Sebastian Lutz, Varun ... · Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference . Nov. 6-7, 2017 . Baltimore, MD . Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview

iCPPI Typical Set-Up – Separately Managed Accounts (SMA)

26

CPPI rebalancing

within each SMA

Hedge Provider

Assets

(e.g. mutual funds) SMA platform: trading / custody

Growth Asset

Safe Asset

Data for each SMA Trade instructions (CPPI rebalancing) &

gap risk protection for each SMA

Implementation of trade

instructions within each SMA

Client interface

(e.g. website)

Customer policy

data flow & cash

Policies linked to

segregated accounts

Customers’ assets visible in their

respective accounts

Customers have flexibility within their

unique CPPI policy

IT capability makes this solution

scalable

Varun Mahajan | Corporate Clients | Equity Markets and Commodities | 2017

Page 29: Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview Sebastian Lutz, Varun ... · Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference . Nov. 6-7, 2017 . Baltimore, MD . Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview

iCPPI Example for a pre-retirement investor : problem

27

Key Facts

Age 50 years

Planned Retirement Age 65 years

Savings $200,000

Additional yearly

contributions (possibly)

$20,000

Investment Decisions Self

Risk Appetite

Medium

Capital Protection Desirable

Current Annuity Rates Finds them low so does not

want to lock-it now

Preferred De-accumulation

Option

Lump Sum Payment

Varun Mahajan | Corporate Clients | Equity Markets and Commodities | 2017

Page 30: Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview Sebastian Lutz, Varun ... · Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference . Nov. 6-7, 2017 . Baltimore, MD . Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview

Solution

28

4. The investor makes ongoing contribution, can

make ad-hoc additions (e.g. due to inheritance)

and is guaranteed to get back 100% of all

contributions when he turns 65

Contribution

option

Withdrawal

option Guarantee

Term One-off &

Regular

%100 of net

contributions

15 Years

Lump Sum

1. The investor makes appropriate policy choices

2. The investor decides the composition of Growth

Assets (can change over time)

40%

20%

30%

10%

US Equity

Global Equity

US Bonds

EM Bonds

3. iCPPI Mechanism determines the ongoing

allocation between Growth & Safe Assets a

b

50% 50% Growth Assets

Safe Assets

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Total Contribution

(Guaranteed Amount)

Account Value

Lump Sum

Or

De-

accumulati

on Plan

Or

Fixed

Annuity Accu

mu

lati

on

Ph

ase E

nd

s

Ongoing Contributions One-time

Payment

Varun Mahajan | Corporate Clients | Equity Markets and Commodities | 2017

Page 31: Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview Sebastian Lutz, Varun ... · Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference . Nov. 6-7, 2017 . Baltimore, MD . Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview

iCPPI Example for a post-retirement investor : problem

29

Key Facts

Age 65 years

Planned Retirement Age Retired

Savings $500,000

Yearly Withdrawals $25,000

Investment Decisions Needs Advise

Risk Appetite Very Low

Capital Protection Necessary

Current Annuity Rates Finds them low

Preferred De-accumulation

Option

Annual minimum

withdrawal for 20 years

Varun Mahajan | Corporate Clients | Equity Markets and Commodities | 2017

Page 32: Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview Sebastian Lutz, Varun ... · Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference . Nov. 6-7, 2017 . Baltimore, MD . Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview

Potential capital to

purchase an

annuity

Solution

30

4. The investor makes ongoing withdrawals and is

guaranteed to receive at least 5% for the next

20 years

Contribution

option

Withdrawal

option Guarantee

Term One-off

5% withdrawal

for 20 years

20 Years

Regular

Withdrawal

1. The investor makes appropriate policy choices

2. The insurer provides a default Growth Asset

allocation depending on investor’s risk profile

10%

10%

70%

10%

US Equity

Global Equity

US Bonds

EM Bonds

3. iCPPI Mechanism determines the ongoing

allocation between Growth & Safe Assets a

b

40%

60%

Growth Assets

Safe Assets

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Total Withdrawals

(Guaranteed Amount)

Account Value

Lu

mp

Su

m In

vestm

en

t

Accu

mu

lati

on

Ph

ase E

nd

s

Ongoing Withdrawals

Varun Mahajan | Corporate Clients | Equity Markets and Commodities | 2017

Page 33: Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview Sebastian Lutz, Varun ... · Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference . Nov. 6-7, 2017 . Baltimore, MD . Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview

Advantages & Disadvantages of iCPPI (insurer’s perspective)

Insurer is primarily exposed to large

market gap events (typically ≥ 10% in

1-day) when hedging a CPPI; this risk

can be syndicated and more easily

passed to the wider market (investment

banks, hedge funds, etc.) unlike the

substantially more dynamic and

complicated VA risks

Easily manageable lapse/surrender

risks as the insurer is effectively selling

a ‘daily crash put’ as opposed to a

long-term put option

Limited or no basis risk

iCPPI implementation is technologically

challenging requiring both time and

capital investment

Significant operational risk due to daily

rebalancing of each individual account

Management of Safe Asset

Policyholders will have to be educated

about how a CPPI mechanism works

31

Varun Mahajan | Corporate Clients | Equity Markets and Commodities | 2017

Page 34: Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview Sebastian Lutz, Varun ... · Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference . Nov. 6-7, 2017 . Baltimore, MD . Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview

Advantages & Disadvantages of iCPPI (investor’s perspective)

Payment flexibility over time -

increases/withdrawals possible as

financial circumstances evolve

Protection flexibility over time – can

increase/decrease protection levels as

risk appetite changes

More asset allocation flexibility (within

Growth Assets) compared to traditional

Variable Annuities

Protection flexibility over time – can

increase/decrease protection levels as

risk appetite changes

Potentially less severe penalties for

surrendering policy early

Cheaper and more transparent pricing

The allocation between Growth & Safe

Assets (i.e. the CPPI mechanism) can

be difficult to understand

The account can be largely made of

Safe Assets during market drawdowns

thus limiting participation when the

market eventually rebounds

Safe Asset may carry overnight or

longer term credit risk

The final outcome is path dependent

32 Varun Mahajan | Corporate Clients | Equity Markets and Commodities | 2017

Page 35: Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview Sebastian Lutz, Varun ... · Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference . Nov. 6-7, 2017 . Baltimore, MD . Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview

Appendix – iCPPI Front-End

33 Varun Mahajan | Corporate Clients | Equity Markets and Commodities | 2017

Page 36: Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview Sebastian Lutz, Varun ... · Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference . Nov. 6-7, 2017 . Baltimore, MD . Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview

SMA platform providers are able to integrate education tools

› The necessary education tools can be provided as either step-through

demonstrations or online videos for the available products describing their

associated features and risks

› Back-testing can be made available with interactive graphs with predefined

market scenarios, and the ability to create custom scenarios

Source: Socius

34 Varun Mahajan | Corporate Clients | Equity Markets and Commodities | 2017

Page 37: Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview Sebastian Lutz, Varun ... · Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference . Nov. 6-7, 2017 . Baltimore, MD . Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview

iCPPI product can also be integrated with Digital Advice

Source: Socius

Online Suitability Tests to assess financial goals

and risk appetite Product Recommendations through a Financial

Advisor

35 Varun Mahajan | Corporate Clients | Equity Markets and Commodities | 2017

Page 38: Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview Sebastian Lutz, Varun ... · Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference . Nov. 6-7, 2017 . Baltimore, MD . Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview

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Corporate Clients | Equity Markets and Commodities | 2017

Page 39: Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview Sebastian Lutz, Varun ... · Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference . Nov. 6-7, 2017 . Baltimore, MD . Hedging of Equity Risks: An Overview

Sebastian Lutz

Head of North America Equity Derivatives Institutional Sales

Phone +1 212 895 1745

E-mail [email protected]

Varun Mahajan

Head of Product Engineering

Phone +44 20 7475 2193

E-mail [email protected]

New York address:

225 Liberty Street,

New York

NY 10281-1050

USA

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30 Gresham Street,

London EC2V 7PG

United Kingdom

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Kaiserplatz

Frankfurt am Main

Germany

www.commerzbank.de

Corporate Clients | Equity Markets and Commodities | 2017