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US Economic Briefing:High Frequency Indicators
Yardeni Research, Inc.
September 26, 2017
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
[email protected]
Debbie Johnson480-664-1333
[email protected]
Mali Quintana480-664-1333
[email protected]
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
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Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
September 26, 2017 / High Frequency Indicators
www.yardeni.com
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Key Global Indicators 1Global Boom Bust Barometer 2US Leading
Indicators 3ECRI 4Citigroup Economic Surprise Index 5US
Unemployment Claims 6-7US Petroleum Usage 8US Electricity Output
9-10US Railcar Loadings 11-14US Federal Tax Receipts & Deposits
15US Business Credit 16MBA Mortgage Applications Survey 17US
Commercial Paper 18US Liquid Assets 19-20US Profits Cycle
21-23Confidence, Boom Bust Barometer, S&P 500 24Gasoline Prices
& Rig Count 25
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
16 17 18 19 2040
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
9/25
Jul
INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES & WORLD EXPORTS
CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index*(1967=100)
Volume of World Exports(2005=100, sa)
* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc,
burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and
tallow.Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and CPB Netherlands
Bureau for Economic Policy.
yardeni.com
Figure 1.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
16 17 18 19 203
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
9/25Apr
INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES & WORLD EXPORTS
CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index*(1967=100)
Value of World Exports (IMF)(trillion dollars, annualized,
nsa)
Source: Commodity Research Bureau and IMF.* Includes copper
scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print
cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.
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Figure 2.
Key Global Indicators
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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
201830
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
9/25
YRI GLOBAL GROWTH BAROMETER*
* Average of nearby price of Brent crude oil and CRB raw
industrials spot price index times 2 and divided by 10.Source: The
Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 3.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2018 2019 202020
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
9/25
9/25
COMMODITY PRICES
CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index*
Brent Crude Oil Futures Price**(dollars per barrel)
* Times 2 and divided by 10. Includes copper scrap, lead scrap,
steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops,
hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.** Nearby futures price.
Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 4.
Global Boom Bust Barometer
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73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13
15 17 19 2130
50
70
90
110
130
150
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
Conference Board LEI(2010=100)
Aug
LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
ECRI Weekly Leading Index(1992=100, 4-wa)
9/159/15
Aug
Source: Conference Board and Economic Cycle Research Institute
(ECRI).Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the
National Bureau of Economic Research.
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Figure 5.
73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13
15 17 19 2140
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Conference Board CEI(2004=100)
Aug
LEADING & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS
ECRI Weekly Leading Index(1992=100, 4-wa)
9/159/15
Aug
Source: Conference Board and Economic Cycle Research Institute
(ECRI).Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the
National Bureau of Economic Research.
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Figure 6.
US Leading Indicators
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
2200
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
-200
ECRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX & HIGH YIELD CORPORATE
SPREAD(basis points, inverted scale)
9/25
High-YieldCorporate Spread*
ECRI Weekly Leading Index(1992=100)
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National
Bureau of Economic Research.* High yield corporate less 10-year
Treasury yield.
Source: Merrill Lynch, Federal Reserve Board, and Economic Cycle
Research Institute (ECRI).
yardeni.com
Figure 7.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
9/25S&P 500 INDEX & ECRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX
ECRI WeeklyLeading Index(1992=100)
S&P 500 Index
Source: Standard & Poor’s and Economic Cycle Research
Institute (ECRI).
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Figure 8.
ECRI
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-160
-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
-160
-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
9/25
CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX(percent)
Based on US Dollar (-8.7)
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Source: Citigroup.
Figure 9.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2018-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
9/25
CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX(percent)
Based on G10 Currencies (17)
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Source: Citigroup.
Figure 10.
Citigroup Economic Surprise Index
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73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13
15 17 19 21150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS(thousands, sa)
9/16
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National
Bureau of Economic Research.Source: US Department of Labor.
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Figure 11.
73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13
15 17 19 21150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS(thousands, sa, four-week moving
average)
9/16
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National
Bureau of Economic Research.Source: US Department of Labor.
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Figure 12.
US Unemployment Claims
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73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13
15 17 19 211
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
CONTINUING UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS(millions, sa)
9/2
Continuing +Extended*
Continuing
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Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.Note: Shaded areas denote
recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic
Research.
* Extended claims are nsa.
Figure 13.
73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13
15 17 19 210
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
CONTINUING UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS(millions, sa, four-week moving
average)
9/2
Aug
Number ofUnemployed
Continuing
Continuing +Extended*
yardeni.com
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.Note: Shaded areas denote
recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic
Research.
* Extended claims are nsa.
Figure 14.
US Unemployment Claims
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91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2016
17
18
19
20
21
22
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
9/15
US PETROLEUM PRODUCTS SUPPLIED(million barrels per day, 52-week
ma)
Total* (20.0)
* Includes motor gasoline, distillate fuel oils, and all other
products.Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 15.
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 207.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
Jul
9/15
US GASOLINE DEMAND & VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED
Gasoline Usage(million barrels per day, 52-wa)
Vehicle Miles Traveled(trillion miles, 12-month sum)
Source: US Department of Energy.
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Figure 16.
US Petroleum Usage
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
16 17 18 19 2060000
62000
64000
66000
68000
70000
72000
74000
76000
78000
80000
60000
62000
64000
66000
68000
70000
72000
74000
76000
78000
80000
9/16
US ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT*(GW hours, 52-week moving
average)
* Excluding Hawaii and Alaska.Source: Edison Electric
Institute.
yarden
i.com
Figure 17.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
16 17 18 19 20-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
9/16
Q2
US ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT* vs. REAL GDP(yearly percent
change)
Electric Utility Output(52-week moving average)
Real GDP
* Excluding Hawaii and Alaska.Source: Edison Electric
Institute.
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Figure 18.
US Electricity Output
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
16 17 18 19 2065
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
60000
62000
64000
66000
68000
70000
72000
74000
76000
78000
80000
9/16
US ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT* vs. PRODUCTION(52-week moving
average)
Electricity Output(GW hours)
Total Manufacturing Production
* Excluding Hawaii and Alaska.Source: Edison Electric
Institute.
yardeni.com
Figure 19.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
16 17 18 19 209500
10500
11500
12500
13500
14500
15500
16500
17500
60000
62000
64000
66000
68000
70000
72000
74000
76000
78000
80000
9/16
US ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT* vs. GDP(52-week moving average)
Real GDP(billion dollars, saar)
Electricity Output(GW hours)
* Excluding Hawaii and Alaska.Source: Edison Electric
Institute.
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Figure 20.
US Electricity Output
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018400
450
500
550
600
400
450
500
550
600
9/16
RAILCAR LOADINGS*(thousand units, 26-wa)
Total
Source: Atlantic Systems and Standard & Poor’s.* Carloads
plus intermodal.
yardeni.com
Figure 21.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018150
200
250
300
350
400
150
200
250
300
350
400
9/16
RAILCAR LOADINGS(thousand units, 26-wa)
Carloads
Intermodal
Source: Atlantic Systems.
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Figure 22.
US Railcar Loadings
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90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 195
10
15
20
25
30
5
10
15
20
25
30
9/16
RAILCAR LOADINGS: MOTOR VEHICLES
Motor VehiclesLoadings(thousand units, 26-wa)Sales(million
units, saar)
Source: Atlantic Systems and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 23.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19200
500
800
1100
1400
1700
2000
2300
2600
2
3
4
5
6
7
9/16
RAILCAR LOADINGS: LUMBER & WOOD PRODUCTS
Lumber & Wood ProductsLoadings(thousand units, 26-wa,
sa)
Housing Starts(thousand units, saar)
Source: Atlantic Systems and US Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census.
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Figure 24.
US Railcar Loadings
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Figure 25.
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 2060
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
9/16
RAILCAR LOADINGS(thousand units, 26-wa)
Coal
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 203
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
9/16
Nonmetallic Minerals
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 2030
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
9/16
Chemicals & PetroleumProducts
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 205
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
9/16
Pulp & PaperProducts
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 204
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
9/16
Metals & Products
Source: Atlantic Systems and American Trucking Association.
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 206
7
8
9
10
11
9/16
Waste & ScrapMaterials
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US Railcar Loadings
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201995
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
2509/16AugATA TRUCK TONNAGE INDEX & INTERMODAL RAILCAR
LOADINGS
Railcar Loadings:Intermodal Containers(thousand units, 26-wa)
(246.6)
ATA Truck Tonnage Index(2000=100, sa) (149.0)
Source: American Trucking Association and Atlantic Systems.
yardeni.com
Figure 26.
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2020
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
9/16
RAILCAR LOADINGS: INTERMODAL TRAILERS(thousand units, 26-wa)
Source: Atlantic Systems and American Trucking Association.
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Figure 27.
US Railcar Loadings
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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 20201300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
2500
2600
2700
2800
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
2500
2600
2700
2800Aug
9/22
FEDERAL TAX RECEIPTS & DEPOSITS: INDIVIDUAL &
PAYROLL(billion dollars)
Deposits: Withheld Income & Employment Taxes(260-day
sum)Receipts: Individual Income Taxes PlusSocial Insurance and
Retirement Receipts*(12-month sum)
* Employment and General Retirement, Unemployment Insurance, and
Other Retirement.Source: US Treasury and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 28.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
9/22
Aug
FEDERAL TAX RECEIPTS & DEPOSITS: CORPORATE INCOME
TAXES(billion dollars)
Deposits(260-day sum)
Receipts(12-month sum)
Source US Treasury and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 29.
US Federal Tax Receipts & Deposits
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82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
Jul
SHORT-TERM BUSINESS CREDIT & INVENTORIES(billion dollars)
9/13
C&I Loans PlusNonfinancialCommercial Paper(nsa)
Manufacturing & TradeInventories(sa)
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National
Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Census Bureau.
yardeni.com
Figure 30.
575
775
975
1175
1375
1575
1775
1975
2175
2375
575
775
975
1175
1375
1575
1775
1975
2175
2375
9/13
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2060
100
140
180
220
260
300
340
380
420
60
100
140
180
220
260
300
340
380
420
9/20
COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL LOANS(billion dollars, nsa)
NONFINANCIAL COMMERCIAL PAPER(billion dollars, nsa)
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
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Figure 31.
US Business Credit
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90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 203
4
5
6
7
8
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
425
450
475
500
525
550
9/15
Aug
MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS: NEW PURCHASE INDEX & SINGLE-FAMILY
HOME SALES
Mortgage Applications:New Purchase Index(4-week average, sa)
New Plus ExistingSingle-Family Home Sales(million units,
saar)
Source: Mortgage Bankers of America.
yardeni.com
Figure 32.
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
9/15
MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS: REFINANCING INDEX(4-week average, sa)
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association.
yard
eni.
com
Figure 33.
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
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Figure 34.
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
9/20
COMMERCIAL PAPER OUTSTANDING(billion dollars, sa)
Total
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
9/20
Domestic Financial
Foreign Financial
Foreign Bank (nsa)
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20150
250
350
450
550
650
750
850
950
1050
1150
1250
9/20
9/20
Asset Backed
Total Financial
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2075
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
9/20
Nonfinancial
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US Commercial Paper
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90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 202.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.07.58.08.59.09.510.010.511.011.512.012.5
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.07.58.08.59.09.5
10.010.511.011.512.012.5
9/11LIQUID ASSETS*(trillion dollars, sa, ratio scale)
* Total savings deposits (including money market deposit
accounts), small time deposits, and total money market mutual funds
held by individuals &institutions.Source: Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System.
yardeni.com
Figure 35.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2020
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
9/13
9/15
LIQUID ASSETS*
As a percent ofWilshire 5000 (46.0)
S&P 500 Market Cap (55.7)
* Total savings deposits (including money market deposit
accounts), small time deposits, and total money market mutual funds
held by individuals &institutions.Source: Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System, Standard & Poor’s Corporation, and
Wall Street Journal.
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Figure 36.
US Liquid Assets
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84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
20100500900130017002100250029003300370041004500490053005700610065006900730077008100850089009300
100500900
130017002100250029003300370041004500490053005700610065006900730077008100850089009300
9/11
9/11
INTEREST-BEARING DEPOSITS(billion dollars, sa)
Savings Deposits (includingMoney Market Deposit Accounts)*
Total Small TimeDeposits**
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
* Included in M2.** Included in M2. IRA and Keogh account
balances are excluded.
yardeni.com
Figure 37.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020.4
.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
.4
.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
9/11
9/11
MONEY MARKET MUTUAL FUNDS(trillion dollars, sa)
Held By:Retail*
Institutions**
* Included in M2. IRA and Keogh account balances are excluded.**
Included in MZM, but not in M1 or M2.
Source: Federal Reserve Board.
yardeni.com
Figure 38.
US Liquid Assets
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80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2010
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Aug
9/21S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC
INDICATORS
US CoincidentEconomic Indicators(2004=100)
Forward Earnings*
* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings
estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994,
weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Conference
Board.
yardeni.com
Figure 39.
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
9/21
S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC
INDICATORS(yearly percent change)
US Coincident Economic Indicators
Forward Earnings*
* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings
estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994,
weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Conference
Board.
yardeni.com
Figure 40.
US Profits Cycle
Page 21 / September 26, 2017 / High Frequency Indicators
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
16 17 18 19 2030
50
70
90
110
130
150
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
Jul
9/21S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & FACTORY ORDERS
Total New Factory Orders(trillion dollars, saar)
Forward Earnings*(weekly)
* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings
estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994,
weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and US Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
yardeni.com
Figure 41.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
16 17 18 19 20-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
9/21
Jul
S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & NEW FACTORY ORDERS(yearly
percent change)
S&P 500 Forward Earnings*
New Factory Orders(3-ma)
* 52-week forward consensus expected S&P 500 operating
earnings per share. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.
Time-weighted averageof current and next year’s consensus earnings
estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System.
yardeni.com
Figure 42.
US Profits Cycle
Page 22 / September 26, 2017 / High Frequency Indicators
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80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Aug
9/21
S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION(yearly
percent change)
Forward Earnings*
US Industrial Production
* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings
estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994,
weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
yardeni.com
Figure 43.
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-10
-5
0
5
10
-40
-20
0
20
40
9/21
S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & INDEX OF AGGREGATE WEEKLY
HOURS(yearly percent change)
Aggregate Hours
S&P 500 Forward Earnings*
* 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings. Monthly
through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Time-weighted average of
current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.Source: Bureau
of Labor Statistics and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
yardeni.com
Figure 44.
US Profits Cycle
Page 23 / September 26, 2017 / High Frequency Indicators
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201840
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
20
30
40
50
60
70
9/16
9/16
YRI BOOM-BUST BAROMETER & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX
Boom-Bust Barometer*
Consumer Comfort Index
* CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial
unemployment claims, four-week moving average.Source: Bloomberg,
Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor.
yardeni.com
Figure 45.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
9/16
9/25S&P 500 INDEX & YRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX
S&P 500 Index
YRI Weekly Leading Index*
* Average of Consumer Comfort Index (which is a four-week
average) and the four-week average of Boom-Bust Barometer, which is
CRB raw industrialsspot price index (weekly average) divided by
weekly initial unemployment claims.Source: Bloomberg, Commodity
Research Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Standard &
Poor’s.
yardeni.com
Figure 46.
Confidence, Boom Bust Barometer, S&P 500
Page 24 / September 26, 2017 / High Frequency Indicators
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1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
2011 2013 2015 2017.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
9/13
9/25
GASOLINE PRICES(dollars per gallon)
National AveragePump Price (weekly)Futures Price (daily)*
* Nearby contract.Source: Oil & Gas Journal and Haver
Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 47.
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
9/22
ACTIVE US RIG COUNT(units)
US Rig CountTotal US (935)
Gas (190)Oil (744)
Source: Baker Hughes Inc.
yardeni.com
Figure 48.
Gasoline Prices & Rig Count
Page 25 / September 26, 2017 / High Frequency Indicators
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Key Global Indicators 1Global Boom Bust Barometer 2US Leading
Indicators 3ECRI 4Citigroup Economic Surprise Index 5US
Unemployment Claims 6US Unemployment Claims 7US Petroleum Usage 8US
Electricity Output 9US Electricity Output 10US Railcar Loadings
11US Railcar Loadings 12US Railcar Loadings 13US Railcar Loadings
14US Federal Tax Receipts & Deposits 15US Business Credit 16MBA
Mortgage Applications Survey 17US Commercial Paper 18US Liquid
Assets 19US Liquid Assets 20US Profits Cycle 21US Profits Cycle
22US Profits Cycle 23Confidence, Boom Bust Barometer, S&P 500
24Gasoline Prices & Rig Count 25Copyright and Hedge Notice
