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8/17/2019 Higher education Significance
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Futures for Higher EducationScenario workshop
DELEGATE PACK
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4 uestions to co!p"ete #efore we start
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3www. .com
$hat%s &our 'ision for the HE sector in () &ears*
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4www. .com
$hat wi"" the !ost successfu"
institutions #e doing in () &ears that the othersaren%t*
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5www. .com
+t%s ,- &ears fro! now. what wi"" ha'e
changed !ost in ter!s of the uni'ersit&%s/
/!ission
/inco!e
/organisation 0 wa&s of working
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6www. .com
$hich aspect of &our strateg& is !ost critica" toensuring the future success of the uni'ersit&*
8/17/2019 Higher education Significance
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F1T12ES F32 H+GHE2
ED1CAT+3
Trends presentation
5),,
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The workshop addresses two
!ain ai!s
Analysingtrends into thefuture and what
is taking usthere
Exploring whatwe want for
the future andhow we could
get there
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This presentation focuses on
three !ain trends
Thefundingof highereducation in theUK
Thedemandfor
highereducation
Innovati on andevolution inhigher
education
APICTUREFORTHE
FUTURE?
8/17/2019 Higher education Significance
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NOWCurrent
situation
2/3-5 years‘Lock ins’
Long-term r!"ers
Outcome 1
Outcome 2
Outcome 3
What is hoped for int#e 3$-year "!s!on?
Short-term choices
Long-term choices
‘Segment stories’
A.
B.
C.
nstitutional le!el
"ector le!el
Key indicators 2010 2015 2040
#.
$.
%.
&'" "L(E LL)"&*A&E"C+,-+E&" +/ &'E(A0
8/17/2019 Higher education Significance
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And these are points for the
group to consider
'eadline 1uestions
• What are the key
decisions that faceyour institution?
• 'ow 2ight theseshape highereducation in the )3and around theworld?
•
'ow do you see thefuture of 'E in the
&hings to think a4out
• What sectors ha!e
changed 4eyondrecognition?
• What sectors arestarting rapid changenow?
• What a4out ‘Black"wans’?
8/17/2019 Higher education Significance
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DEVELOPING A PICTURE OFTHE FUTURE
8/17/2019 Higher education Significance
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These are so!e caricatures of
the "ast decade
6 De!and continuing to outstrip hea'i"&
regu"ated supp"&
6 Persistence of a do!inant ( &ear residentia"
degree !ode" 7 prestige of traditiona" !ode"s
6 Pri'ate pro'iders and FE !argina" or
su#ordinate to uni'ersities
8/17/2019 Higher education Significance
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And this has #een the stor& of
funding for the past twent& &ears
8/17/2019 Higher education Significance
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$e are now set for a
"i#era"isation of the !arket
6 Supp"& side "i#era"isation
6Tuition fee rep"acing grant 7 with !ore scope fordifferentiation in cost 83r not999:
6 Stronger de!and "ed focus on ;ua"it&%
6 +ntroduction of a!enda#"e !echanis!s to restrain
ta
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3thers sectors ha'e #een
through "i#era"isation
• L o t s o f s 2 a l l n i c h e s u p p l i e r s 5 s o 2 e 4 i g ! a l u e e n t r a n t s
ew entrants?
• n w h a t i s o 6 e r e d i n t e r 2 s o f s e r ! i c e s 7 p r i c i n g 7 s u p p o r t 7 e t c
nno!ation?
• B i g g e s t a n d 2 o s t 8 n a n c i a l l y s o u n d o f t h e ‘ i n c u 2 4 e n t s ’
Continued 2arketdo2ination for a ti2e?
• A 2 o n g s t 4 o t h o r i g i n a l p l a y e r s a n d n e w e n t r a n t s/ailures7 2ergers andtake9o!ers?
• E x a n t e t o p r o t e c t c o n s u 2 e r i n t e r e s t s a n d e x p o s t c o 2 p e t i t i o n l a w
ew regulation?
• A n i n : u x o f f o r e i g n i n ! e s t 2 e n t a t s o 2 e p o i n tew sources offunding?
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A #ig assu!ption that needs to #e
assessed
-ostindustrialecono2icde!elop2ent
(e!eloping 2iddleclasses in
e2ergingecono2ies
(ata richandknowledge dri!enworld ;
learningthroughout career
Ongo!ngangro%!ngeman&or
#!g#ere'(at!onanresear(#
8/17/2019 Higher education Significance
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Cou"d this #e a picture of a
deregu"ated high de!and future*
= 4-- ! = -)> ! = -?( ! = ?55 ! = ?(? ! = ?>5 ! = >4? ! = @>- != ,.)@- != ,.5>- != ,.(? != ,.4 != ,.>,( != ,.@@) != 5.5)) !
)
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97,997
,,,.4@)109,940,,?.@4)117,290122,150
136,295
152,620173,985
199,225
214,6905,.,>-
239,210229,645
54>.-
High! "#$%&i'( i()&i&i'(%* i($'+ !'+ ('(-EU "'+i$i*" )"(&) 1994.95 - 2008.09
/%(" ('(-EU "'+i$i* )"(& (#+!) $*#"i(g )"(&) !'+ EEA $'#(&!i)
A$%"+i$ %!)
+i**i'(, $%)h &!+)
"(& (#+!) /h%" $'#(&)
SourceB Higher Education Statistics A genc& 8HESA:B 2esources of higher education institutions. Students in higher education institutions. 'arious &ears
5 1 , 8
8 0 +
5 1 , 4
9 9 +
Fro! 5))>0)@ w riting up and sa##atica" students are no "onger inc"uded in standard counts of students
*
*
5 1 , 7
1 3 +
5 2 , 2
0 0 +
8/17/2019 Higher education Significance
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Howe'er the worst financia" and
econo!ic crisis since ,5 started in 5))>
Our GDP growth forecast is slow relativeto previous recoveries. This reects theeects of the scal consolidation, therelatively slow easing of tight creditconditions and ongoing private sector
deleveraging. )ar(# 2$**
Given rising pressure on governments!alance sheets and limitations on pu!licfunding growth, "oodys anticipates thatthe university sector will, over the longterm, see# more independent sources of
funding to nance growth ande$pansion. %e anticipate thatendowment fund !uilding through
philanthropy, enrolments of internationalstudents and !orrowing will rise in somecountries. 'igherEducation7 @une $
8/17/2019 Higher education Significance
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And the route out is "ong and
co!p"e<
Econo2ic
outlook
"o!ereign de4t
crisis
Bankingde4tcrisis
Creditand
lendingcrisis
*ecession andune2pl
oy92ent
8/17/2019 Higher education Significance
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$i"" this "ock in the shift to
tuition #ased funding*
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$hat other uestions wi"" need to
#e reso"'ed*
2 2 e d i a t e 1 u e s t i o n s • 2 p a c t o f g o ! e r n 2 e n t s t u d e n t n u 2 4 e r d e r e g u l a t i o n a n d i n c e n t i ! e s
8/17/2019 Higher education Significance
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How wi"" these changes affect
pressures around999
6 ;Custo!er% satisfaction 7 ua"it& of teaching
and faci"ities*
6 Staff and professiona" satisfaction 7 the
'o"u!e and ua"it& of research*
6 Prestige and the push for ;wor"d c"ass%
status 7 continued cost inf"ation*
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$e are a"read& seeing the
g"o#a"isation of higher education
5))0,)HE+ in the 1K
5))0,)HE+ o'erseas
)
-))))
,)))))
,-))))
5)))))
5-))))
()))))
(-))))
4)))))
4-))))
(4).),)
O7!)%) )"(&) '( U8 HE !'7i)i'( %(" *'$%&i'( ' )"4, 2009.10
L'$%&i'( ' )"4
8/17/2019 Higher education Significance
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This is #eing dri'en #& g"o#a"
econo!ic de'e"op!ent
China seeks to be the Asian country with the greatest number of
international students and a major destination in the world for
international students, according to goals outlined in its National
Plan for Medium and Long-Term ducation !eform and
"e#elo$ment %&'(')&'&'*+ ith an annual international student
growth rate of ., international student numbers will reach at
least /'',''' by &'&', making it the biggest hosting country in Asia+
8China on the CuspB eco!ing the #iggest internationa" student destination in AsiaB
The 3#ser'ator& on order"ess Higher Education:
China
+ndia
igeria
1nited States
a"a&sia
Hong Kong
Pakistan
Saudi Ara#ia
Canada
Thai"and
Taiwan
Korea 8South:
ang"adesh
Sri Lanka
Singapore
Gapan
orwa&
2ussia
+ran
Turke&
) 5).))) 4).))) ?).)))
,@0
5))0,)
Number of studentsin UK higher
education inst itutionsfrom the top 20countries of domicilefor non-EU students,2009/10
8/17/2019 Higher education Significance
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Producing new concentrations
of de!and
,9ir!ingha! Cit& 1ni'ersit&
59Co'entr& 1ni'ersit&
(9De ontfort 1ni'ersit&
49Edin#urgh apier 1ni'ersit&
-9G"&ndwr 1ni'ersit&
?9Herriot$att 1ni'ersit&
>9Kingston 1ni'ersit&
@9Lancaster 1ni'ersit&
9Leeds etropo"itan 1ni'ersit&
,)9anchester etropo"itan 1ni'ersit&
,,9idd"ese< 1ni'ersit&
,59ottingha! Trent 1ni'ersit&
,(9391ni'ersit& of 1"ster
4@91ni'ersit& of $a"es
491ni'ersit& of $a"es. ewport
-)91ni'ersit& of $arwick
-,91ni'ersit& of $ o"'erha!pton
-591ni'ersit& of the $est of Eng"and. risto"
-(9Jork St ohn 1ni'ersit&
)3 pro!iders with courses in 'ong 3ong
A d i i l l 4 l
8/17/2019 Higher education Significance
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And increasingly glo4alresearch networks
The continued strength of the traditional centres ofscientic e$cellence and the emergence of new playersand leaders point towards an increasingly multipolarscientic world, in which the distri!ution of scientic
activity is concentrated in a num!er of widely dispersedhu!s.
8/17/2019 Higher education Significance
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ut addressing these trends is
not si!p"e
‘Brand’
-ositioning
n!est2ent
+!erseasacade2icand industrypartners for
research
ew
co2petitors ;)" andChinese
uni!ersities
Co2plexethical and
politicallandscape
(i!ersestudent and
sta=ngneeds
eworganisational challenges ;'*7 8nance
Wider rangeof degree
2odels
8/17/2019 Higher education Significance
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2esearch concentration !a& affect &our
institution%s positioning do!estica""& and g"o#a""&
8/17/2019 Higher education Significance
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3r wi"" a drift toward contract #ased funding
present cha""enges or opportunities*
HE+CI s'r"ey
$%9J $J9 $9K $K9D $D9 $
#
$
%
J
K
D
#
Colla4orati!e
research
Contract
research
9
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#7EAA7AAA
$7AAA7AAA
$7EAA7AAA
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J7AAA7AAA
J7EAA7AAA
E7AAA7AAA
6$i($ 0#"g& %**'$%&i'(
8/17/2019 Higher education Significance
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How wi"" financia" !ode"s
e'o"'e*
6 EfficienciesB strea!"ining and new accounting practices*
6 CostsB ho""owing out of functions as part of efficienc& and
!odernisation strategies 7 narrower focus*
6 FundingB new !ode"s of pri'ate re'enue*
6 ew wa&s of !onetising the asset #ase 7 in'est!ent
dri'en organisations*
8/17/2019 Higher education Significance
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Jou !a& #e interested in 1S
re'enue !ode"s
8/17/2019 Higher education Significance
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Jou !a& #e interested in 1S
e
8/17/2019 Higher education Significance
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How !ight the presence of new
entrants affect &ou*
+ n l i n e p r o ! i s i o n 7 w i t h l o c a l l e a r n i n g 4 a s e s > l o c a t i o n s w i t h i n
# 2 i l e s o f D 2 i l l i o n A 2 e r i c a n s
o tenured professors ;
recruited 4y the class
Large 2arketing 4udget ;$Mof Apollo Nroup’s O#.% 4illionnet re!enue on selling and
pro2otional expenses A g g r e s s i ! e r e c r u i t 2 e n t o f t h o s e w i t h a c c e s s t o f e d e r a l a i d a n d
! e t e r a n s ; n e a r l y M o f
r e ! e n u e
&he )ni!ersity of-hoenix
J7K enrolledstudents in $#
8/17/2019 Higher education Significance
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And what a#out on"ine 7 are we
"ea'ing a decade of disappoint!ent*
6 (e!elop2ent in C-( 5 &E>6 /acilitated6 Blended6 +nline
6 ncreasingly 4otto2 upadoption and adaptation oftechnologies ; e.g. Cloudco2puting
6 (o technologies re1uirere!iew of 2ethods?
6 a!igating knowledge6 ntercultural and online
learning
6 *esearch 2ethods 5networks
8/17/2019 Higher education Significance
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And what a#out ;un#und"ed%
!ode"s of de"i'er&*
6 The ro"e of techno"og& in ena#"ing the
disaggregation of de"i'er& and
co!part!enta"ised ;products%
7 The de"i'er& processB6 Content 7 s&""a#us. research scho"arship
6 C"assroo! 7 teaching. "ectures. super'ision
6 +nfrastructure 7 +T networks. "i#raries. estates etc
7 The ;product%B
6 Pa& as &ou go tuition. credit accu!u"ation6 E
8/17/2019 Higher education Significance
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And through a"" of this generations
wi"" change 7 what wi"" this !ean*
T o d a & • C o h o r t o f f e e p a & i n g s t u d e n t s e n t e r i n g i n t o a c a d e ! i c w o r k f o r c e • $ e # 5 9 ) g e n e r a t i o n e n t e r i n g i n t o h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n
5 ) 5 ) • F e e p a & i n g c o h o r t e n t e r i n g a n d ! a t u r i n g i n t o a c a d e ! i c p o s t s
• $ e # 5 9 ) g e n e r a t i o n e n t e r i n g i n t o t h e a c a d e ! i c w o r k f o r c e
5 ) ( ) • F e e p a & i n g c o h o r t ! o ' i n g i n t o " e a d e r s h i p p o s i t i o n s • $ e # 5 9 ) g e n e r a t i o n e n t e r i n g i n t o ! a t u r e a c a d e ! i c p o s t s
5 ) 4 ) • H E + s s t a f f e d a n d " e d # & t h o s e w h o h a ' e p a i d f o r ! o s t o r a " " o f t h e c o s t o f t h e i r t u i t i o n a n d # e e n # r o u g h t u p o n i n t e r n e t s o c i a " n e t w o r k i n g
8/17/2019 Higher education Significance
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And socia" priorities wi"" e'o"'e
7 what wi"" #e the ne
8/17/2019 Higher education Significance
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So!e initia" uestions for the
group
6 $hat is right. wrong or !issing fro! this pictureB or
ha'e &ou heard it too often to care*
6 $hat is !ost significant for &ou and what are &ou
"ess #othered a#out*
6 $hat are the !ost significant uncertainties and how
!ight these shape outco!es*
6 $hat other wa&s are there or shou"d there #e of
"ooking at a"" this*
1) d d "
6) ,m"c(t"onPossible futures for the institution – in 30 years
8/17/2019 Higher education Significance
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1) Trend! dr"#er!
e#ent
ww.idenk.co2
5) The $e%"n"ng
&oment')
2) The wort c(e
3) The *et c(e
4) +n "nteret"ng c(e
() /e(t"onh" w"th
go#ernment')
*) /e(t"onh" w"thother "nt"tut"on
c) Other re(t"onh"
) uet"on to onder
y
$oode (n "m(ge
(
8/17/2019 Higher education Significance
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( * A/
*e!iew of the workshop
#. a2e>PPPPPPPP
$. 'ow do you rate the session