1st SRII Asia Summit 201316- 18 September, 2013, Bangkok, Thailand

Status of Global and Regional

Food Security, and Future Outlook

Presentation at ASEAN Feed and Rice Symposium

Bangkok, April 9, 2014Hiroyuki Konuma

FAO Assistant Director- General and Regional Representative for Asia and the Pacific

Outline of my presentation

• Present agricultural production and food security situation

• Future outlook of food security situation towards 2050 (can we produce sufficient food to meet the growing demands?)

• Constraints, challenges and uncertainties• Way forward

Cereal production for 2013/14 (as of March 2014) is expected to increase by 9%, contributed by wheat production increase of 8 %,

course grain 11% and rice 1.1%

Global scenario on malnutrition

Undernourishment currently at 842 m (12% of global population)

63 % or 529 m live in Asia Pacific (representing 11.8% of population)

Around 2 billion people suffer from micronutrient deficiencies (30%)

~75 percent of people with micronutrient deficiencies live in Asia

165 million children are stunted (26%)

In South Asia around 39 percent of children under age of 5 are stunted

1.4 billion adults are overweight, of which 500 million are obese

Prevalence of Undernourishment (%)

in Asian Countries (1990/1 to 2011/13)

Source: FAO

Prevalence of Stunting among Children less than 5 years (%) (2010 to 2012)

Source: FAO

Low-income Asian countries

Middle-income Asian countries

High-income countries

Prevalence of overweight in Asian countries (BMI≥25) in adults

Source: WHO Global NCD Status Report, 2010

Malnutrition in the Pacific Island countries

80% of adults are overweight in the Cook Islands, Kiribati, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, Nauru, Tokelau, Tonga and Samoa

60% of adults are obese in Tonga and the Cook Islands;

75% of all adult deaths are due to NCDs;

40% of children under the age of five are anaemic in Papua New Guinea, Fiji, Nauru, the Solomon Islands; Tuvalu;

40% of pregnant women are anaemic in the Solomon Islands, Fiji, Nauru and Samoa

As food security improves, diets change

1990 2000 20090

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

10% 9% 8%

1990 2000 2009

22% 19% 13%

1990 2000 2009

VegetalAnimal

12%8% 9%

South Asia East Asia Southeast Asia

kcal

/cap

/day

Livestock products now among the top 5

commodities in all Asian sub-regions, 2012

Meat, cattle

Milk, whole fresh

Maize

Meat, pig

Rice, paddy

0 50,000 100,000

East Asia Southeast Asia

Rubber

Meat, chicken

Meat, pig

Oil, palm

Rice, paddy

0 20,000 40,000

US$ billion at (constant 2004-2006 prices)

Livestock products now among the top 5

commodities in all Asian sub-regions, 2012

South Asia Central Asia

US$ billion at (constant 2004-2006 prices)

Chicken

Potatoes

Wheat

Rice, paddy

Milk, whole fresh

0 50,000

Potatoes

Cotton, lint

Meat, cattle

Wheat

Milk, whole fresh

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

Can we produce sufficient food to meet the demand of the growing future population which would reach 9.2 billion by 2050?

13

Outlook Towards Year 2050

14

World Population Trends

Source: UN, 2011

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1200019

5019

5519

6019

6519

7019

7519

8019

8519

9019

9520

0020

0520

1020

1520

2020

2520

3020

3520

4020

4520

5020

5520

6020

6520

7020

7520

8020

8520

9020

9521

00

developed Sub-Saharan AfricaNothAfrica and the Middle East Latin America and CaribbSouth Asia Eastern Asiapercentage annual growth rate (right scale)

millions

15

Food Consumption Trends(Kcal/person/day)

Source: Alexandratos, 2011

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1969/71 1979/81 1990/92 2005-07 2030 2050

Industrial countries Sub-Saharan Africa

Near East-North Africa Latin America & Caribbean

South Asia East Asia

Middle Class Population

17

Global Urbanization Trends

Source: UN, 2011

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.019

50

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Rural Urban

billions

60% increase in food production needed by 2050(77% increase, if developing countries only)

18

56

317

170

24

77

60

0 100 200 300 400

developed countries

developing countries

world

percent

2005/07-2050 (projected)

1961-2005/07 (observed)

Source: Bruinsma, 2011

Demand growth for meat (to 2030)

S Asia E.Asia SE.Asia Aus&NZ0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Beef Mutton Pork Poultry

Eggs

Mill

ion

tonn

es

Demand growth for milk (to 2030)

Series10

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

S AsiaE.AsiaSE.AsiaAus&NZ

Million MTs

Source: Robinson and Pozzi, 2011

21

Global Production in 2050

Compared to 2005/07, the world would produce every year as at 2050

• one more billion tons of cereals (45%)• 196 more million tons of meats (76%)• 713 more million tons of roots and tubers (64%)• 172 more million tons of soybeans (79%)• 429 more million tons of fruits (68%)• 365 more million tons of vegetables (47%)

Future Outlook Towards Year 2050

Can we increase food production by 60 % (or 77% in developing countries) by 2050 to meet the needs

of growing population which would exceed 9 billion at that time?

Yes! In principle we have to

But majority of it (91 %) has to come from existing arable land through agricultural research and

yield increase 22

23

Sources of Production Growth (91% is expected to come from yield increase)

Source: Bruinsma, 2011

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

world developing developed

(percent)

Yields increases between 2005/07 and 2050

Crop intensity increases between 2005/07 and 2050

Area increase between 2005/07 and 2050

Targeted Increases in Food Production Must be met under Existing Constraints

• Stagnation of expansion of arable land• Increasing scarcity of water resources• Decline of productivity growth affected by lack of

investment in agriculture in recent decades• Increasing post-harvest losses and table waste• Various uncertainties such as future crude oil

prices, food price hike and volatilities, negative impact of climate changes and natural disasters, and bio-fuel development.

24

25

Limited Scope Exists for Expansion of Arable Land in Asian Countries (only 5% of existing land can be expanded mainly in

Africa and Latin America)

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Developed countries

sub-Saharan Africa

Latin America Near East / North Africa

South Asia East Asia

Arable land in use, 2005/07

Additional land projected to be in use, 2050

million ha

Source: Bruinsma, 2011

Increased Production will Increase the Demand for Water

26

Water is a Key Requirement for Food Production

10th New Ag International Conference and Exhibition, 28 - 30 March 2012, BangkokSource: Selected Indicators , FAO - RAP

2011

Growth in cereal yields is slowing

Wheat Rice (paddy) Maize Total cereals0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1961-20071987-20072005-2050

Growth rate, percent per year

Source: Bruinsma 2011

Livestock will require a larger share

South Asia East Asia & Pacific0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

20002050

Percent cereals used as animal feed

Asia’s Net Feed Imports

US$ million

30

Sour

ce: F

AOST

AT

S.Asia E.Asia SE.Asia0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1990 2000 2009

Projection for Maize Production in China

2025

1997

0 50 100 150 200 250

230.56

121.9

China

Million tonnes

But net imports to increase

39

.8

1.9

0 10 20 30 40 50

2025

1997

Million tonnes

2025 1997

338-Oct-2012

8-Oct-2012 34

Crude oil price increased over 500% since 1999

FAO Food Price Index in February 2014 averaged 208 point s which was 2.6% higher than previous month, 50 % higher in real term than 10 years ago

The price of cereals, sugar and dairy products are increasing (FAO Food Price Index, Feb 2014)

Feed prices over the last ten years

Jul-02

Nov-02

Mar-0

3Jul-0

3

Nov-03

Mar-0

4Jul-0

4

Nov-04

Mar-0

5Jul-0

5

Nov-05

Mar-0

6Jul-0

6

Nov-06

Mar-0

7Jul-0

7

Nov-07

Mar-0

8Jul-0

8

Nov-08

Mar-0

9Jul-0

9

Nov-09

Mar-1

0Jul-1

0

Nov-10

Mar-1

1Jul-1

1

Nov-11

Mar-1

2Jul-1

20

100

200

300

400

500

600

maize soybean meal

USD/MT

Uncertainty: climate change

39

“worst case” 2080 scenario: • less harvested area, up to -

39% (World) and -29% (developing countries)

• up to 130 million more undernourished in S-SH Africa

Source: IIASA (Fischer, 2011) Source: IPCC (2007)

The number of natural disasters occurring worldwide has increased

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

Africa Asia-Pacific Caribbean Europe Latin America North America

Number of Disasters

Source: ESCAP and ISDR, The Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2010.

World bio-ethanol and bio-diesel production is projected to be doubled in 20 years between 2009 and 2018; increasing competition of land and water use with food production

Potential Risks (if the world is unable to meet the production target, and if there is

a food shortage)• Export ban of food by food exporting

countries to protect their own consumers• Uncertainty to secure food import• Food price hike• Food and feed price volatility• Negative impact to the poor consumers• Social unrest , political instability, ………

Remove bottlenecks, cope with constraints

• Stagnation of expansion of arable land• Increasing scarcity of water resources• Decline of productivity growth affected by lack of

investment in agriculture in recent decades• Increasing post-harvest losses and table waste• Various uncertainties such as future crude oil

prices, food price hike and volatilities, negative impact of climate changes and natural disasters, and bio-fuel development.

43

Technologies, institutions and policiesBut....

None of the solutions can be delivered without institutional support and sound policies

Technology and institutions must work together; and policies must provide enabling environment for this

For our future generation!

Let’s Work Together.

What measures might be taken to minimize the risks

A. Production, Research

• Sustainable agricultural intensification /Save and Growth Approach

• Promote technical cooperation with developing countries, SSC , knowledge sharing

• Contribute to the advancement of agricultural research and technological innovation

• Enhance agricultural research, extension and ICT linkages.

B. Trade

• Encourage more free trade agreements to secure food supply

• Diversify trade sources• Negotiate long-term forward trade

contracts• Establish emergency food reserve• Promote food security partnership under

Regional /sub-regional frameworks such as ASEAN, ASEAN +6 47

C. Consumption

• Diversify diets, which will help to ensure a healthier and more nutritious balanced diets,

• Nutrition education• Reduce food losses and waste• Sustainable consumption• Create awareness and advocate the

importance of food and agriculture48