Singapore , 26-27 July 2012

ASEAN MEDIA FORUM

Review of Global and Regional Food

Security Situation and Future Outlook

Hiroyuki Konuma

FAO Assistant Director- General and Regional

Representative for Asia and the Pacific

2

3

4

5

India, 237.7, (44%)

China, 130.4, (24%)

Pakistan, 43.4, (8%)

Bangladesh, 41.7, (8%)

Indonesia, 29.9, (5%)

Philippines, 13.2, (2%)

Others , 49.8, (9%)

91 percent of undernourished in Asia and the Pacific live in just 6 countries

91% of Asia and the Pacific’s undernoulished population live in just 6 countries

6

Asia and the Pacific is the home of 62 percent (2/3)of world hungry population,

despite remarkable

economic growth

7Source: ESCAP

8

Poor consumers• Proportion of poor ((living less than US$ 1.25/day)

in total population dropped from 50% to 22% between 2990 and 2009 in Asia

• However, success in economic growth did not result in alleviating hunger

• Inequitable distribution of benefit of economic growth

• Widening income disparity and inequality at both in least developed and middle income countries

• Micro nutrient malnutrition affecting additional two billion people, particularly children

• More than one billion people over weight

• New factor influencing hunger : Food price hike and volatility affected poor consumers who spend a large portion of income for food

Food prices are high and volatile

Food prices are high and volatile(still remains 2 times high from 10 years ago)

Corn future market at Chicago Board of trade,

25 July 2012 (US$787.50)

10

wheat future market at Chicago Board of

Trade, 25 July 2012 (US$ 903)

11

Proportion of undernourished

population in Asia-Pacific region remains

16% ,far from MDG target of 10% to be

achieved by 2015)

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990-92 1995-97 2000-02 2005-07 2009 2010

ProportionSource: FAO SOFI 2010

Can we produce sufficient

food to meet the demand

of growing future

population?

13

14

World population

Source: UN, 2011

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

19

50

19

55

19

60

19

65

19

70

19

75

19

80

19

85

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

30

20

35

20

40

20

45

20

50

20

55

20

60

20

65

20

70

20

75

20

80

20

85

20

90

20

95

21

00

developed Sub-Saharan Africa

NothAfrica and the Middle East Latin America and Caribb

South Asia Eastern Asia

percentage annual growth rate (right scale)

millions

15

Food consumption(Kcal/person/day)

Source: Alexandratos, 2011

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1969/71 1979/81 1990/92 2005-07 2030 2050

Industrial countries Sub-Saharan Africa

Near East-North Africa Latin America & Caribbean

South Asia East Asia

16

Urbanization

Source: UN, 2011

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

19

50

19

55

19

60

19

65

19

70

19

75

19

80

19

85

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

30

20

35

20

40

20

45

20

50

Rural Urban

billions

17

Changes in the composition of diets

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2005-07

2030 2050

Near East and North Africa

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2005-07

2030 2050

Latin America and Caribbean

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2005-07

2030 2050

South Asia

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2005-07

2030 2050

East Asia

Cereals Roots & tubersMeat Dairy Veg oils SugarOthers

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2005-07

2030 2050

Industrial countries

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2005-07

2030 2050

Subsaharan Africa

Source: Alexandratos, 2011

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Global production in 2050

Compared to 2005/07, the world would

produce every year

• one more billion tons of cereals (45%)

• 196 more million tons of meats (76%)

• 713 more million tons of roots and tubers (64%)

• 172 more million tons of soybeans (79%)

• 429 more million tons of fruits (68%)

• 365 more million tons of vegetables (47%)

19

Past and projected increases

in global production

56

317

170

24

77

60

0 100 200 300 400

developed

countries

developing

countries

world

percent

2005/07-

2050

(projected)

1961-

2005/07

(observed)

Source: Bruinsma, 2011

20

Is there enough land?

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Developed

countries

sub-Saharan

Africa

Latin America Near East /

North Africa

South Asia East Asia

Arable land in use, 2005/07

Additional land projected to be in use, 2050

million ha

Source: Bruinsma, 2011

21

Increasing water use for agriculture,

which accounts 70% of total water

use

10th New Ag International Conference and

Exhibition, 28 - 30 March 2012, BangkokSource: Selected Indicators , FAO - RAP 2011

Water is a Key Requirement for Food Production

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Sources of production growth

Source: Bruinsma, 2011

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

world developing developed

(percent)

Yields increases

between 2005/07 and

2050

Crop intensity increases

between 2005/07 and

2050

Area increase between

2005/07 and 2050

24

Yields need to increase over average 0.8%/year

towards 2050, compared to 1.7% in past decades

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

1961/63 2005/07 2050

cereals (tons/ha) soybeans (tons/ha)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1961/63 - 2005/07 2005/07 - 2050

cereals (growth % per year)

soybeans (growth % per year)

Source: Bruinsma, 2011

Uncertainties( uncertain factors influencing future food security)

• Crude oil prices hike

• Food price volatility

• Impact of climate changes

• Bio-fuel development

• etc…….25

Crude oil price increased over 500% since 1999

27

“worse case” 2080 scenario:

• less harvested area, up to -

39% (World) and -29%

(developing countries)

• up to 130 million more

undernourished in S-SH Africa

Source: IIASA (Fischer, 2011)

Source: IPCC (2007)

Uncertainty: climate change

The number of natural disasters occurring

worldwide has increased

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

40019

80

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

Africa Asia-Pacific Caribbean Europe Latin America North America

Number of Disasters

Source: ESCAP and ISDR, The Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2010.

World bio-ethanol and bio-diesel production is projected to be doubled in 20 years between 2009 and 2018; increasing competition of land and water use with food production, in addition to competition of use of food grains between bio-ethanol and food/feed

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Conclusion• Resources may be sufficient to produce food for 9.2

billion people, but – huge investment agricultural research and

infrastructure is required to increase productivity – Reduce post-harvest losses and waste--access to food by the poor remains a critical issue

which requires targeted approach; safety net

• Yields increases may be attained, but natural resources management needs to be improved substantially to counteract competition ,over use,etc.

• Crude oil price hike, food price volatility, bio-fuel development and climate changes are major sources of uncertainty 32

• Everyone has a right to access to food

• Food is essential for our survival, stability,

peace and world security

• Building awareness, sense of strong

solidarity, help each other

• Sustainable consumption, reduce waste

• Public and private sector partnership and

working together

Thank you33