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Choices in late 1980s
Democracy, then reform– Open up society to reform it
– U.S. thought “totalitarian”
system not reformable
Reform, then democracy –Shock the economy, then (maybe) open up –Models of Chile, China
Mikhail Gorbachev, 1985-91• Democracy, then reform
• Socialism with a human face
• Openness
• Restructuring
Glasnost (Openness)
• End to secrecy– After Chernobyl 1986
• Freedom to
assemble, speak, etc.
• Open discussion of problems
Glasnost: Unanticipated effects• Unleashed nationalisms
• Decentralization spreads
conflict to local scale
• No one calls shots;
little democratic experience
Perestroika (Restructuring)
Political: Reduce Party control
Economic: Privatize non-industrialeconomy
Place name changes:Transliteration
Gomel
Tadzhikistan
Nakhichevan
Kirghizstan
Homyel
Tajikistan
Naxçivan
Kyrgyzstan
Perestroika: Unanticipated effects• Reluctance to give up security
• Mistrust competition, inequality
• Economic output lower, food shortages/lines
Gorbachev Era • Reversed “Brezhnev
Doctrine” in E. Europe
• Some allies more
hard-line than USSR
• Hard-liners tested him– Lithuania, Georgia,
Azerbaijan massacres
Afghanistan war, 1979-89• Underestimated Muslim mujahadin rebels
• Bogged down like Vietnam
• Stinger missiles shot down helicopters
Afghanistan war, 1979-89• Withdrew 1989
• Pro-Soviet regime ousted 1992
• Bitter Afghantsy (veterans)
Poland & Hungary• Western-oriented
• Soured on socialism
after repression– Hungary 1956– Poland 1970 & 1981
• Regimes liberalized
Better-off first to revolt
Poland, Hungary in Warsaw Pact
Baltic States in USSR
Slovenia, Croatia in Yugoslavia
Czech Rep. in Czechoslovakia
Better-off first to revolt
Socialist state prevented full development
Resented supporting poorer areas
“Pull” of European Union integration
Western TV signals
• Finnish TV in Estonia
• W. German TV in GDR,
Czech., Poland
• Austrian TV in Hungary
TV stationsas battlegrounds
Lithuania massacre 1990 U.S. bombs Serbia 1999
Romanian Revolution 1989
Ostankino tower clashes,Moscow, 1991, 1993
Poland 1989 • Solidarity strikes, peasant party force election
• 1st non-Communist prime minister appointed; Lech Walesa later pres.
Hungary 1989• Party drops power monopoly
• Declares republic, opens discussion of 1956
• Opens western border
East Germany(GDR) 1989
• “Tourists” cross Hungarian border to Austria (brain drain)
• Huge youth rallies spread from Leipzig
• Fear of Stasi secret police lost
• Gorbachev prevents crackdown
Berlin Wall 1989• Minister on TV ends travel restrictions
• Berlin Wall falls overnight after 28 years
• GDR dissolves 1990, becomes FRG poor region
Post-Soviet paths, 1989
• “Reformed” Communist parties
• Pro-West consumer capitalism
• “Third Way”: democratic socialism / Greens
• Right-wing ethnic nationalism
Czechoslovakia 1989• Student protests
repressed
• “Velvet Revolution” returns leaders from 1968 Prague Spring
• Dissident writer
Vaclav Havel president
Czechoslovakiaends 1993
• Czech Rep. More developed than Slovakia
• Czechs want quick NATO, EU entry
• “Velvet Divorce” of leaders, not people
Bulgaria 1989 • Russians popular in Slav Orthodox country
• Communists win 1990 election; lose 1991
• Economic reforms difficult
Romanian Revolution 1989
• Dictator Ceaucescu
wooed West
• Autocratic “personality
cult,” secret police
• Military revolt executed
him, poverty remained
Baltics1990
• Lithuania declares full independence
• Soviet crackdown
• Latvia, Estonia declare sovereignty (own laws supreme)
Boris Yeltsin,1991-99
• Party official from Urals; resigned 1990
• Modernizer; Russian Federation Pres. 1991
• Russia needs own identity apart from USSR,
declares republic laws supreme
August 1991 Coup • Day before Union of Sovereign States declared
• Gorbachev under arrest by KGB; VP in power
• Moscow KGB declined to arrest Yeltsin (on tank)
• Gorbachev rescued, coup collapses
Coup Aftermath • Yeltsin undercut Gorbachev as main leader
• Baltics independence recognized in Sept.
• Other republics start to declare as “sovereign”
December 1991 Endgame
• Russia, Ukraine, Belarus independent
• Declare “Commonwealth of Independent States”
• 8 independent republics join CIS (Georgia later)
• Gorbachev resigns, Soviet flag lowered
Aftermath• Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakstan disarm nukes
• Economic, military ties disrupted between republics
• Rise of “mafia” economy, crime
“Shock therapy” • Close command industries
•Reduce or end subsidies
• Privatize industrial economy
•High unemployment,
inflation, inequality
• Winning regionsHub cities
Gateway
Spatial economy • Losing regionsOlder military-industrial
Agricultural, Resources
Ethnic minority
Post-Communists, 1990s
• Elected in Poland, Hungary, Lithuania!
• Slowing down shock therapy?
• Seen as capitalist/modern,
not nationalist, social conservative
Opposition to Yeltsin
• Candidates: Rutskoi, Lebed, Zhirinovsky, Zyuganov
•Communists & nationalists lament loss of Empire
•Slavophile populists mistrust West; often anti-Semitic
•Yeltsin tanks fire on Parliament, 1993
Yeltsin’s Demise • Financial crash
• Health problems
• Drunk as a skunk
• Corruption extended to family
• Ethnic minority autonomy (soft on Chechens?)
Vladimir Putin, 2000-? • Underestimated as Yeltsin puppet
• Ex-KGB in Germany; knows West well
• Yet also placates “Eurasians,” Soviet memories