Housing Directors Network

Andrew LycettGroup Chief Executive RCT Homes

‘The Times They Are a Changin’

Supply Demand and Need

-99,616-53%

+40,484+4.3%

+99,165+110%

+119,964+9.4%

+79,932+45%

Households are headed for the Private Rented SectorDriven by stock transfer 28,000 RTB/RTA Sales

9.7% 13.6%6.3% 70.4%

Overall growth of 99,000 compares to 120,000 additional homes

Tenure Changes In RCT

Distribution Of Rented Stock

Meanwhile 90,000 people are on the social housing waiting list

That figure increased to 24,376 in 2011/2012

There were 3,082 empty privately owned properties in RCT at March 2013

The Local RCT Housing Market

• private rented sector increased from 7,000 to 14,500 homes• Market in North for one and two bed homes comparable to

social rents• Population largely unchanged between 1991 and 2001.

– central and northern valleys declined by 5% whilst increasing in the south by 10%

• Persimmon snowline at Abercynon for new build market sale• Property turnover rates have increased by 24% during the last

12 months. – trend experienced by other RSLs and other LSVTs

elsewhere, indicating that there is a structural component to this

• 1 in 5 of RCT Homes properties under occupied.

Under Occupation

Impact Of Under Occupation

Housing Need In RCT

Market Rents

Poverty In RCT

• RCT CBC estimated annual reduction in Housing Benefit for under occupancy at £1.740m

• 28 of the 152 LSOAs in the top 10% of most deprived areas in Wales

• 22/75 electoral wards are Communities First Areas• 27% of residents have a limiting long term illness • 41% of residents with no academic qualifications• 78% of RCT Homes tenants are in receipt of Housing Benefit

(57% full, 21% partial) • Rhondda food bank reported a 40-50% increase in users• £70m LA public expenditure cuts (40% implemented)

What’s Happening With Demand?

• During 2013/14 a total of 5,378 applications to the Common Housing Register were received by RCTCBC.

• Of these 2,333 applicants were housed (1,678 by RSLs) and 4,050 were closed or cancelled

• As at March 2014 there were 4,107 active applicants on the Common Housing Register. – 30% of applications were social housing tenants wishing to

transfer• 74% of housing offers made were declined

– after 23,253 applicants were skipped in selecting who to make an offer of housing to

• 22% of applicants housed were assessed as not in housing need

What Are The Drivers?What have we done?

• Combined the data – linked up data; tenancy information and property data, for example linked Academy data to Void costing data, Major works data and the tenancy sustainability team data.

• Checked and cleaned data.• Used statistical analysis e.g. Chi Squared techniques to identify

correlations between data sets looking for ‘significance’

• Initial work programme – taking each point separately, answering the questions for tenancy ending.

• Overview of the void costs (as they are now linked back to tenancy data we can split the costs by tenancy end reason and add the rent loss to the void cost)

Trends

• In February 2014 we were 26% up on the tenancy endings of previous year

• At the same time in 2013 we were in line with the previous year, so 0% increase.

• In 2011-12 we had 67 less tenancies endings at this point in the year showing a 7% decrease.

• Shortly after transfer we had 583 empty homes, all of which were repaired and re-let

• Last year saw a reversal of trend

What is the trend – year on year,month on month

The tenancy ending spikes are more to do with the number of Sundays in a month rather than a trend month by month

Key stats –tenancies ending

• There have been 278 more tenancies ending in 2013-14 compared to 2012-13.

• As there has been a decrease in the number of Sheltered tenancies ending. 14 less tenancies ended during 2013-14.

• So the increase is in General needs housing with an increase of 29% and 292 tenancies.

• 11% property turnover for General needs and 15% property turnover for Sheltered.

2011-12 2112-13 2013-14General -4% 3% 29%Sheltered -13% 2% -15%All -5% 3% 25%

Reason for Tenancies Ending

Length of tenancy

Previous focus was on sustaining tenancies beyond 12 and 24 monthsAre Longer periods of support and engagement required?

Cumulative percentage of length of time for leavers 2013-14

66% of tenants end their tenancy within 5 yearsWhat is a successful tenancy? Who can afford/ still wants a tenancy for life?

Who Is Most Likely to Fail?

Analysis Of Tenancies Ending• 63% of single persons ending their tenancies do so within the first

5 years• 82% of single people with one child who end their tenancies, end

it within the first 5 years• 91% of single people with two children who end their tenancies,

do so within the first 5 years• 65% of couples with 2 or more children that end their tenancies,

end it within the first 5 years• Compare this to just 50% of couples who end their tenancies, do

so within the first 5 years• Only 32% of households with adults and no children in the

tenancyend their tenancies within the first 5 years• 57% of households with more than two adults with children end

their tenancies within the first 5 years

Reasons For Leaving By Household Composition

Main findings:Proved to have an effect on those leaving:More likely to leave:• Younger tenants• Those living in a flat• Those living in Rhondda• Those living in 1 and 2 bed properties• Those that came through the homelessness

route• Those in the red and amber category

Main findings:Proved to have an effect on those staying:More likely to stay:

• Those living in houses• Those living in 3 and 4 bed properties• Those living in Taff• Those within the green category

Main findings:

No proved effect on those leaving:

• Homes with significant MIP investment• Transferring tenancies• Those living in Cynon

What can we do with these findings:

Working with the neighbourhood plans to build up profiles of tenants within each area, to know when to target tenancies to sustain tenancies

Develop profiles of leavers to inform tenancy sustainability team to target higher risk tenants

Profile of Leavers

Profile A :Left to be nearer family • Living in a 2 bed Flat• Within the Cynon area• One person living in the property• Came through the waiting list route• Female within the 25-34 age group• Average (median) length of tenancy 2 yrs 6 months• Group accounts for 18% of tenancies ending in 2013-14 to

date.• This group accounts for:

– 18% of void costs.– 13% of rent loss.– 17% of total void costs

Profile of Leavers

Profile B: Left through a transfer• Living in a 3 bed House• Within the Rhondda area• Two people living in the property• Came through the waiting list route• Main tenant is Female within the 35-50 age group• Average (median) length of tenancy 4 yrs 8 months• This group accounts for

– 19% of tenancies ending in 2013-14– 22% of void costs.– 25% of rent loss.– 23% of total void costs

Profile of Leavers

Profile C: Left through abandonment• Living in a 2 bed flat• Within the Rhondda area• Two people living in the property• Came through the waiting list route• Main tenant is Male within the 25-34 age group• Average (median) length of tenancy 1 yr 5 months• Group accounts for:

– 8% of tenancies ending in 2013-14 to date.– 6% of void costs.– 7% of rent loss.– 8% of total void costs

Age band profile of leavers and current tenants

Property Type

Number of bedrooms

Void Costs – Based on tenancy ending reasons

2013-14 Leavers reasons

Rent 17 £61,754 £3,633 £3,531Property Size 67 £240,866 £3,595 £2,702Transfer 124 £484,019 £3,903 £2,688Deceased 64 £274,429 £4,288 £2,412Health 76 £248,245 £3,266 £2,266Unable to transfer 20 £57,527 £2,876 £2,261Unhappy with area 38 £109,815 £2,890 £2,162Other 71 £196,815 £2,772 £1,958Abandoned 39 £128,227 £3,288 £1,939To be near Family 139 £394,145 £2,836 £1,776Total 655 £2,195,841 £3,352 £2,228

Count Total claimed Value

Mean Median

Anecdotally we had always supported transfers as we believed they encouraged longer tenancy duration and better tenant relationship – this was not the case

Void Costs – Based on tenant age band

Do We Understand Our Data?• Older tenants tend to cost more – possibly report fewer

repairs during tenancy?• Younger people tend to be in smaller units so lower cost?

unknown 8 £7,012 £5,111 £3,869 £3,698 £3,796 £2,66851_64 75 £2,550 £2,045 £0 £2,298 £1,060 £1,343>80 54 £2,398 £2,011 £0 £1,774 £1,017 £1,40335_50 141 £2,329 £1,874 £0 £2,226 £1,073 £1,20325_34 194 £2,282 £1,913 £0 £2,163 £881 £1,08865_80 45 £2,275 £1,823 £0 £1,993 £1,063 £91019_24 134 £1,875 £1,453 £0 £1,698 £703 £99116_18 4 £664 £498 £0 £664 £0 £664Grand Total 655 £2,228 £1,835 £0 £2,021 £906 £1,148

HMU costCount Total Cost Surveyed Cost

MIP Cost Non MIP cost

Contractor cost

Void Costs – Based on property type

Simple but smaller homes costs less at void stage – less to go wrong?

HOUSE 239 £3,381 £2,882 £0 £2,983 £1,534 £1,697BUNGALOW 12 £2,353 £2,014 £0 £1,778 £1,288 £906MAISONETTE 30 £1,725 £1,358 £0 £1,681 £585 £865FLAT 367 £1,656 £1,398 £0 £1,555 £692 £852BEDSIT 7 £1,542 £1,542 £0 £1,542 £1,105 £619Grand Total 655 £2,228 £1,835 £0 £2,021 £906 £1,148

Count Total Cost Surveyed Cost

MIP Cost Non MIP cost

Contractor cost

HMU cost

Void Costs – Based on Moved to where

Indicators of tenant age impacting on void costs are clearAlso older tenants are being replaced by younger more transient tenants

Count

MOVED TO NURSING HOME 15 £4,683 £4,099 £0 £2,982 £1,605 £1,932EVICTION UNKNOWN 14 £4,120 £2,833 £0 £3,071 £1,054 £1,829HM PRISON 12 £2,909 £2,225 £0 £2,004 £926 £1,265DECEASED 51 £2,831 £2,519 £0 £2,275 £1,157 £2,002TRANSFER TO RCT PROPERTY 120 £2,653 £2,114 £0 £2,373 £1,130 £1,396TRANSFER TO OTHER RSL 67 £2,650 £2,102 £0 £2,281 £1,093 £1,263PURCHASE OWN HOME 8 £2,592 £2,089 £0 £2,556 £1,292 £1,025ABANDONED 48 £2,112 £1,741 £0 £2,034 £921 £971MOVED TO PRIVATE RENTED 134 £2,048 £1,647 £0 £1,951 £808 £1,098MOVED TO FAMILY AND FRIENDS 125 £1,767 £1,447 £0 £1,663 £698 £879UNKNOWN 47 £1,563 £1,371 £0 £1,438 £531 £759MOVED OUT OF COUNTRY 13 £1,368 £1,087 £0 £1,368 £364 £816MOVE ON 1 £1,007 £927 £0 £1,007 £314 £693Grand Total 655 £2,228 £1,835 £0 £2,021 £906 £1,148

Total Cost Surveyed Cost

MIP Cost Non MIP cost

Contractor cost

HMU cost

Assessing Vulnerability

• A risk based assessment of tenancy support needs. The assessment covers 6 key areas – Home, Tenancy And Community– Finance And Budgeting– Maintaining The Safety And Security Of The Home– Living Skills– Occupation And Accessing The Community– General Health And Well Being

Vulnerability Outcomes• 60% of new tenants are identified as not having a vulnerability• 11.3% were identified as having a mental health vulnerability,

including mental health as a lead vulnerability with a secondary vulnerability identified.

• Nearly 6% had an identified vulnerability that included alcohol or substance misuse

• Nearly 5% were vulnerable as a result of domestic abuse• Nearly 4% were careleavers, a further 4% had learning

difficulties identified, and $ had physical disabilities• Nearly 2% were identified as vulnerable as a result of finances• There were a small number of others identified as vulnerable

due to age and being a single parent.

Responding to Vulnerability

For the 106 customers assessed, over 140 interventions have been delivered.

Challenges

• Poverty and worklessness• Comparative cost and quality of PRS• Benefit Reform - Bedroom tax, non dep, caps etc. • Tenant choice – direct payment• The big smoke attraction• Change in model to shorter tenancies• Added value services not appreciated until received• Range of support on offer eg employment training,

budgeting, money advice