Slide 2 How Can Engineering Probability Help to Achieve
Sustainability ? Slide 3 What is Sustainability? Traditional
definition Policies and strategies that meet societys present needs
without compromising the ability of future generations to meet
their own needs. (Brundtland Commission, 1987) Public Policy
Perspective Satisfaction of basic economic, social, and security
needs now and in the future without undermining the natural
resource base and environmental quality[3]. Slide 4 Sustainability
Concept Humans are integral part of the natural world and nature
must be preserved. Triple bottom line solutions Good for the
environment Good for economics Good for society Slide 5 Source: Bob
Willard, The Sustainability Advantage. Typical business view
Sustainability view Environment ECONOMY Society ENVIRONMENT Society
Economy Mental Models Slide 6 Triple Bottom Line The triple bottom
line for business is one that protects the environment and improves
the lives of the people whom that environment interacts with. A
measure of success in terms of per capita, natural capital, and
profit. The 3 Pillars People Planet Profit Slide 7 Triple Bottom
Line People Fair practices for all people and does not exploit
interest of separate parties based on money, status or growth.
Planet Management of renewable and non renewable resources while
reducing waste. Profit Financial benefit enjoyed by the majority of
society. Slide 8 Sustainability and its Place in Business
Cost-savings Corporate image and reputation Guidelines/directives
from upper management Impact of legislation (must do factor) Slide
9 Definition of Sustainability: Two Views Ford: A business model
that seeks to create value for stakeholders by preserving or
enhancing economic, environmental and social capital. Herman
Miller: Not doing business where it will harm future generations,
with the head of the Environmental Department adding that its also:
something thats profitable.if we arent making money at this, we
will be out of business. And then we wont be doing anybody any
good. Slide 10 Environmental Impact How bad is it? How much waste
do you think we generate? as individuals? as a society? from
industry? How much CO 2 do you think a refrigerator produces? How
much impact do you think computers have? Other examples? Slide 11
Example: Refrigerator Impact In the course of its service life, an
average three-star refrigerator consumes roughly 5,000
kilowatt-hours and produces about 2,400 kilograms of CO 2 (a
greenhouse contributor). An assessment of the entire product line
of a refrigerator - ranging from the extraction of raw materials to
the disposal of the used product - shows that the lions share of
this energy (90 percent or more) is consumed during the
refrigerator's period of use. Slide 12 Example: Computers &
Energy Consumption If the number of workstation computers continues
to grow as it has in the recent past, a new power plant will have
to be built every five years in order to cover the increasing
electricity consumption in Germany. While the computers specific
energy consumption per processing transaction is decreasing, this
development is offset by the greater computing power of the new
machines. Slide 13 Natural Resources Goods and Services Pollution,
Waste and Environmental Disturbances Source: World Resources
Institute Approximately 25% of what goes in the pipe comes out as
goods and services. Todays Material Flow Slide 14 Source: World
Resources Institute Tomorrows Material Flow Reduce Use of Natural
Resources Recover Technical Nutrients Slide 15 References [1]
Garrett Hardin, The Tragedy of the Commons, Science, Vol. 162, No.
3859 (December 13, 1968), pp. 1243-1248. [2] epa.gov, nrel.gov [3]
http://www.episodes.org/backissues/264/279-284.pdf,
http://www.groundwater.org/gi/contaminationconcerns.html [4]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_transport,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telecommuting [5]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biodiesel,
http://www.biodieselsustainability.com /,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy Slide 16 References
[6] http://rainforests.mongabay.com/1010.htm,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logging,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pulp [7]
http://www.sustainablefish.org/,
http://marinebio.org/Oceans/Conservation/sustainable- fisheries.asp
[8] http://www.epa.gov/ord/lrp/research/landfill.htm,
http://www.wm.com/, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landfill [9]
http://www.usgbc.org/, http://www.greenbuilding.com/,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_building,
http://www.carbonsmart.com/carboncopy/2009/03/leed-
breeam-and-green-star-joining-forces.html Slide 17 Engineering
Probability Tools Descriptive Statistics Probability Distributions
Data Collection/Sampling Statistical Estimation Hypothesis Testing
Regression and Analysis of Variance Slide 18 Engineering
Probability Approach to Sustainability For a given topic, students
should be able to address the following questions: What are the
issues that impact sustainability? What is currently known about
these issues? What knowledge is needed to better understand how to
achieve sustainability? What are potential factors and research
questions? What data are needed? What are practical issues for
collecting these data? How can probability and statistics tools be
used to analyze the data? Slide 19 Example: Groundwater
Sustainability 50% of the U.S. depends on groundwater for daily
drinking water. Sustainability Issues: Maintaining groundwater
levels Keeping groundwater free of contaminants [3] Slide 20
Groundwater Sustainability What is currently known about
groundwater levels? Climate change is primarily quantified by a
rise in the Earths near-surface air temperature. The rise in
temperature will cause glaciers, ice sheets, and snowcaps to melt,
causing added runoff into oceans. The runoff into oceans will
increase sea level. The primary sources of fresh water (glaciers,
etc.) will be reduced. Fresh ground water supplies at coasts could
be contaminated by salt water from oceans. Slide 21 Groundwater
Sustainability What are sources of groundwater contamination?
Surface water contamination and runoff. Combined sewer/stormwater
systems that overflow during significant storm events.
Malfunctioning or leaking septic systems, lagoon systems,
centralized wastewater treatment systems. How does nature prevent
contamination? Native shrubs, perennials, flowers absorb water and
filter out contaminants. Trees, shrubs, and grasses can form
buffers to protect clean water sources. Slide 22 Groundwater
Sustainability What knowledge is needed? Potential factors? Can we
detect potential sources of contamination? Monitor fresh water
supplies. Can we mimic nature? Study porous pavements (e.g.,
Cowboys Stadium). Can we develop a cost-effective desalination
process to convert salt water to fresh water? Study existing
desalination processes and costs. Can we avoid sewer/stormwater
system overflows? Study the causes of combined sewer/stormwater
overflow. Slide 23 Groundwater Sustainability Data? Issues? To
monitor fresh water supplies, collect field data. Issues: There a
lot of places to monitor. Need to specify the metrics to quantify
water quality. To study porous pavements, collect data on the
permeability of various pavements and their ability to filter out
contaminants. Issues: Need to specify runoff conditions, such as
the amount and the level/type of contamination. Slide 24
Groundwater Sustainability Data? Issues? To study desalination,
collect data on the energy needs of various processes. Issues: It
may be difficult to gain access to data. Need to specify the
salinity of the influent water. To study sewer/stormwater system
overflows, collect data on storm events and overflow. Issues: Need
to specify the metrics used to describe a storm event (e.g., amount
or rate of precipitation) and the severity of an overflow (e.g.,
amount or rate). Need to be able to measure these metrics. Slide 25
Groundwater Sustainability How can probability and statistics tools
be used to analyze the data? Use plots to track water quality. Use
two-sample tests to study different pavements, such as two-sample
tests on filtration percentages. Develop a regression relationship
between the cost of desalination and the salinity of influent
water. Fit probability distributions to storm event data. Estimate
the probability of such events leading to combined sewer/stormwater
system overflows. Slide 26 Topic 1: Transportation Systems
Emissions from vehicles have been cited as major contributors to
greenhouse gases and land use. Sustainability Issues: Air pollution
Land use Telecommuting [4] Slide 27 Transportation Systems What is
currently known? Public transportation consumes less energy and
uses land more efficiently than private transportation. Public
transportation is accessible to all members of society. Public
transportation encourages cities to grow more compactly.
Telecommuting replaces the daily work commute with
telecommunication links. Adding HOV lanes reduces vehicle traffic.
Slide 28 Transportation Systems How do transportation systems
impact pollution? Vehicle emissions are one of the leading
contributors to air pollution. Adding HOV lanes reduces vehicle
traffic. Under-utilized public transportation systems fail to
reduce vehicle traffic. Idling, acceleration, and deceleration of
vehicles contributes higher emissions per mile traveled. Cars are
most fuel efficient at 40-60 mph. Disposal of old vehicles is not
sustainable. Slide 29 Topic 2: Cleaner Energy Alternative energy
sources are critically important for curbing greenhouse gas
emissions and creating a more independent energy economy.
Sustainability Issues: Renewable energy Electric vehicles Biodiesel
[5] Slide 30 Cleaner Energy What is currently known? Our present
fuel resources are mostly made up of fossil fuels, which are not
considered renewable. (The worlds consumption of fossil fuels is
100,000 times faster than their natural production.) The combustion
of fossil fuels releases air pollutants. Renewable energy sources
are naturally renewable, such as solar, wind, hydropower, and
geothermal. In 2010, only a small portion of electricity
generation, about 18%, was from renewables. Renewables have high
variation and higher cost. Slide 31 Cleaner Energy What are
alternatives for vehicles? Biodiesel is a mixture of diesel and
biomass from plant oils, animal fats and even recycled grease, and
can reduce vehicle emissions of greenhouse gases by 75%, but the
cost-effectiveness of biodiesel processes is still unclear. Diesel
vehicles can directly use biodiesel blends without any engine
modifications. Battery electric cars have zero tail pipe emissions,
but their battery storage still needs improvement. Hybrid
gas-electric cars can improve fuel-efficiency, but require special
engines. Slide 32 Topic 3: Logging The U.S., with less than 5%of
the world's population, consumes 17% of the world's output of
timber and is the third largest importer of tropical timber.
Sustainability Issues: Deforestation Forest biodiversity Pulp/paper
production [6] Slide 33 Logging What is currently known? The forest
products industry is a large part of the economies in developed and
developing countries. Wood is considered a renewable resource. The
primary material for making paper is wood pulp. Alternatives
include recycled pulp and field crop fiber. Wood is also used for
construction and is hard to replace. Slide 34 Logging What is known
about deforestation? Deforestation is one the major contributors to
global warming. Deforestation disturbs the water cycle (i.e.,
rainfall) and increases soil erosion. Reforestation replenishes
forests, but can diminish biodiversity. Tropical deforestation is
still a problem. The restriction of trade in certain species is
enabled by listing with CITES(the Convention on International Trade
in Endangered Species of Wild Flora and Fauna), but this is still
controversial. Slide 35 Topic 4: Fisheries The global fishing fleet
is estimated to be 250% larger than what the ocean can sustainably
produce. Sustainability Issues: Overfishing Ocean conservation Food
supply [7] Slide 36 Fisheries What is currently known? Fish
currently supply the greatest percentage of the world's protein
consumed by humans. Seafood guides help consumers make informed
choices. Fish farming, an alternative to sea fishing needs more
development. Management of ocean ecosystems as a whole is needed,
including prohibiting fishing in certain zones. Management requires
communication between national governments and markets. Slide 37
Fisheries What is known about overfishing? Depleted fish stocks can
be restored only if the species' ecosystem remains intact.
Overfishing disturbs the life cycle (food web) of aquatic flora and
fauna. Overfishing and by-catches made during fishing may result in
depletion of certain species, leading to possible extinction and a
reduced food supply for predators. Advanced technologies have
contributed to overfishing. Slide 38 Topic 5: Waste Management In
2006, U.S. residents, businesses, and institutions produced
approximately 4.6 pounds of waste per person per day.
Sustainability Issues: Landfills Recycling Bioreactors [8] Slide 39
What is currently known? Reuse, recycle, reduce, recover. Landfill
mining and reclamation (LFMR) is a process whereby solid wastes
that have previously been landfilled are excavated and processed.
Landfills are monitored to minimize groundwater contamination.
Methane from landfills is a natural energy source. The
decomposition of plastics takes about 1000 years. Landfills occupy
land that could be used for other purposes. Waste Management Slide
40 What are bioreactors? Bioreactors use moisture to enhance the
waste degradation process, but more research is needed to design
safe bioreactor landfills. Different biological process are
performed to decompose different types of waste. Different types of
waste (e.g., recyclables, food, textiles, drugs, e-waste) can be
treated more efficiently if separated, but this is a difficult to
achieve in practice. Waste Management Slide 41 Topic 6: Green
Building Buildings account for a large amount of land use, energy
and water consumption, and air and atmosphere alteration.
Sustainability Issues: Environmental Impact Life Cycle Cost
Sustainable Design [9] Slide 42 Green Building What is currently
known? Green building typically costs more to implement, but costs
less to maintain, and is more economical over the entire life cycle
(cradle-to-grave). There are already many green building guides
(e.g., LEED in U.S., BREEAM in U.K., Green Star in Australia).
Green building uses non-toxic recycled materials and rapidly
renewable plants (like bamboo), and seeks to reduce waste during
construction. Slide 43 Green Building What are the impacts of green
building? Reduced energy usage via solar energy, insulation,
high-efficiency windows, natural lighting/shading. Reduced water
usage via on-site water treatment or a greywater system for
irrigation. Better indoor air quality improves human health.
Reduced waste generation.
