How East Asians View Democracy. First systematic comparative survey of attitudes and values toward politics, governance, democracy and reform, and citizens’

How East Asians View Democracy

First systematic comparative survey of attitudes and values toward politics, governance, democracy and reform, and citizens’ political actions in East Asia

Standardized survey instruments designed around a common research framework

Federated country-team structure, coordinated by Yun-han Chu, National Taiwan University, with international steering committee

Funded by Taiwan Ministry of Education, Henry Luce Foundation, World Bank, foundations in some of the countries, and other sources

Allows for nested comparisons: three Chinese societies, five “Confucian” societies, developed/developing, democratic/non-democratic; within-society educational, gender, occupational, ethnic, religious, and other groups

Later changed its name to Asian Barometer Surveys. Web address: www.asianbarometer.org

East Asia BarometerA Comparative Survey of Democratization and Value Change, 2001-2003

Table 1.2a Survey Schedules and Sample Sizes of First Wave EAB

Data release form

Table 1.2b Survey Schedules and Sample Sizes of Second Wave AB

Location Survey Schedule Valid Cases

Taiwan Jan 14-Feb 15 2006 1587

Hong Kong Sep-Dec 2007 849

Thailand Apr-Sep 2006 1546

Philippines Nov 25-Dec 5 2005 1200

China Oct 15 2008 Not yet complete

Mongolia May 25-Jun 9 2006 1211

Japan Feb 23-Mar 12 2007 1067

South Korea Sep 7-22 2006 1212

Indonesia Nov 15-29 2006 1598

Vietnam Nov 25-Dec 5 2005 1200

Singapore Jul 15-Dec 22 2006 1012

Malaysia Jul 14-Aug 15 2007 1218

Cambodia Apr 19-May 4 2008 1000

Thailand China Mongolia Taiwan Philippines Korea Hong Kong Japan AverageOur form of gov'tbest for us

68.2% 94.4% 69.8% 67.3% 53.6% 36.0% 54.5% 24.3% 58.5%

Satisfied with howdemocracy worksin our country

90.4% 81.7% 69.8% 53.4% 52.5% 61.8% 57.6% 49.0% 64.5%

Rejectsauthoritarianalternatives

77.3% 74.3% 75.4% 82.7% 70.4% 86.6% 83.9% 95.4% 80.7%

Commitment todemocracy

92.2% 66.1% 84.0% 50.1% 73.5% 76.6% 52.0% 74.9% 71.2%

Satisfied withcurrent gov't

89.7% N/A 55.2% 41.3% 58.5% 35.0% 34.6% 37.1% 50.2%

Trusts gov'tinstitutions

64.3% 72.2% 52.0% 39.2% 41.4% 28.6% 63.2% 31.3% 49.0%

Expectsdemocraticprogress

96.2% 96.7% 92.1% 87.5% 82.3% 95.0% 59.1% 85.0% 86.7%

Average 82.6% 80.9% 71.2% 60.2% 61.7% 59.9% 57.8% 56.7% 66.4%

Regimesupport

Support fordemocracy

Relatedattitudes

Regime Support and Democratic Support in Asia(% of total sample expressing support)

Notes: Source: 2006 Asian Barometer Surveys, preliminary 7-nation dataset as of July 2007 "Rejects authoritarian alternatives"=respondent rejects at least half of the authoritarian alternatives on which s/he expresses an opinion, out of a possible total of three; "Commitment to democracy"=combined measure of five positive attitudes toward democracy; "Trusts government institutions"=summed trust scores for five government institutions is more positive than negative. Bold (red) numbers are at or above the average for that row, nonbold (green) numbers below the average

Table 1.3 Meaning of Democracy (% of total sample mentioning this meaning)

Table 1.13 Commitment to Rule of Law(% of respondents)

Table 1.8 Support for Democracy(% of respondents)

Table 1.9 Authoritarian Detachment(% of respondents)

Japan Hong Kong Korea Taiwan China Philippines Mongolia Thailand AveragePeople with little or no education should have as much say in politics as highly educated people [political equality] (agree).

90.3% 90.1% 72.2% 90.2% 91.6% 55.4% 83.0% 84.5% 82.2%

When judges decide important cases, they should accept the view of the executive branch [separation of powers] (disagree).

76.3% 55.2% 69.0% 66.6% 39.9% 38.7% 74.2% 40.3% 57.5%

Government leaders are like the head of a family; we should all follow their decisions [government accountability] (disagree).

85.7% 67.3% 52.9% 66.1% 39.3% 47.5% 34.5% 41.8% 54.4%

The government should decide whether certain ideas should be allowed to be discussed in society [political liberty] (disagree).

70.3% 69.2% 60.1% 71.5% 36.8% 39.7% 23.2% 47.3% 52.3%

If the government is constantly checked by the legislature, it cannot possibly accomplish great things [separation of powers] (disagree).

62.1% 55.7% 53.8% 29.6% 55.4% 49.9% 41.3% 47.8% 49.4%

If we have political leaders who are morally upright, we can let them decide everything [government accountability] (disagree).

68.3% 60.5% 37.2% 62.4% 47.0% 46.9% 30.7% 25.1% 47.3%

Harmony of the community will be disrupted if people organize lots of groups [political pluralism] (disagree).

42.4% 52.1% 64.8% 38.1% 24.5% 46.2% 31.5% 16.2% 39.5%

If people have too many different ways of thinking, society will be chaotic [political pluralism] (disagree).

44.2% 45.2% 52.8% 25.0% 36.9% 43.4% 19.9% 23.7% 36.4%

Average percent democratic 67.4% 61.9% 57.9% 56.2% 46.4% 46.0% 42.3% 40.8% 52.4%

Democratic Values in East Asia(% giving pro-democratic answer)

Table 1.7 Perceived Change from Past to Present Regime (% of valid sample mentioning this meaning)

Democraticperformance

Policyperformance

Thailand 69.7 57.3Japan 60.8 15.2China 53.1 -8.2Mongolia 51.8 -16.8Taiwan 50.0 -11.1Korea 31.5 -23.1Philippines 26.8 8.9Hong Kong -24.1 1.3 Democratic performance includes freedom of speech, freedom of association,equal treatment of citizens by government, providing citizens w ith popular inf luenceover government, and providing an independent judiciary. Policy performanceincludes w orking against corruption, providing law and order, providing economicdevelopment, and providing economic equality.

Difference in Perceived Performance of Current and Past Regimes

(% perceiving improvement minus percent perceiving worsening)

Table 10.3 Impact of Regime Policy Performance on Support for Democracy

(Standardized regression coefficient)

Hong Kong Taiwan Japan Philippines Korea China Thailand Mongolia AverageFor the sake of the family, the individualshould put his personal interests second.

90.2% 86.1% 72.7% 79.0% 69.9% 91.0% 88.1% 73.6% 81.3%

If there is a quarrel, we should ask anelder to resolve the dispute.

36.9% 68.9% 66.2% 75.8% 44.2% 72.4% 76.7% 70.9% 64.0%

When one has a conflict with a neighbor,the best way to deal with it is toaccommodate the other person.

67.1% 46.1% 75.4% 45.8% 71.4% 71.9% 50.7% 82.3% 63.8%

A person should not insist on his ownopinion if his co-workers disagree withhim.

53.4% 63.0% 61.4% 57.0% 61.4% 51.6% 62.3% 66.7% 59.6%

Even if parents’ demands areunreasonable, children still should dowhat they ask.

23.6% 23.7% 43.5% 29.2% 47.5% 34.2% 37.5% 69.0% 38.5%

When a mother-in-law and a daughter-in-law come into conflict, even if the mother-in-law is in the wrong, the husbandshould still persuade his wife to obey hismother.

37.7% 48.4% 23.3% 27.9% --- 53.5% 43.3% 26.9% 37.3%

When hiring someone, even if a strangeris more qualified, the opportunity shouldstill be given to relatives and friends.

35.2% 28.4% 33.6% 24.9% 26.3% 36.7% 46.6% 65.6% 37.2%

Wealth and poverty, success and failureare all determined by fate.

40.1% 27.3% 26.7% 55.1% 29.5% 24.4% 43.5% 46.5% 36.6%

A man will lose face if he works under afemale supervisor.

7.0% 9.7% 15.4% 23.6% 26.7% 8.5% 46.7% 30.3% 21.0%

Average percent traditional 43.5% 44.6% 46.5% 46.5% 47.1% 49.4% 55.0% 59.1% 49.0%

Traditional Values in East Asia(% agree or strongly agree)

Better educated

Higher income

Urban Older MaleInvolved in

politicsInternal efficacy

Inst'l trust

Leaders responsive

Increased pol rights

Democratic progress

China Traditional values -.462 -.207 -.301 .241 -.240 -.071 -.092 -.174 .047 -.055 Democratic values .367 .182 .287 -.198 .059 .167 .071 .140 .138Taiwan Traditional values -.395 -.271 -.167 .414 -.150 -.221 .144 -.086 .162 Democratic values .246 .196 .092 -.219 .057 .181 .190 -.112 .099 -.073Hong Kong Traditional values -.426 -.227 N/A .322 .088 -.081 -.189 .074 Democratic values .453 .328 N/A -.309 .079 .222 -.120 .079Korea Traditional values -.211 -.152 -.096 .256 .116 -.218 .123 -.243 -.093 Democratic values .152 .201 .119 -.166 .226 -.097 .231 .074Japan Traditional values -.212 .274 -.121 .086 -.115 Democratic values .222 .105 -.016 -.092 .105 .165 .297 -.116 .287 -.099 .065Philippines Traditional values -.090 -.178 .072 .057 -.071 -.132 -.105 Democratic values .067 -.069 .262 .292 .072Thailand Traditional values -.271 -.280 -.098 .155 -.063 -.223 -.231 -.051 .120 Democratic values .157 .212 .185 .210 .069 .199 -.181Mongolia Traditional values -.094 -.077 -.106 .094 .058 -.139 -.071 -.135 Democratic values .150 .073 -.121 .079 .063 .244 .264Notes:

Table 5. Correlates of Traditional and Democratic Values

Dependent variables are additive scales of respondent's disagreement or agreement with traditional-value and democratic-value questionnaire items. The scale ranges from -9 to +9 for traditional values (Korea is pro-rated on a base of 8) and from -8 to +8 for democratic values.

Socioeconomic status

Entries are Pearson's correlation coefficients. Unbolded (green) numbers are significant at the .05 level, bolded (red) numbers at or above the .001 level. Blank cells indicate correlations without statistical significance. N/A=not applicable (no urban-rural variable in Hong Kong).

Education measured in years, income in quintiles, age in five-year age groups, involvement in politics by expressing interest in politics and following news about politics, internal efficacy by response to four questions on one's ability to understand and participate in politics, institutional trust by expressed trust in five government institutions, leaders responsive by response to two questions on responsiveness of government leaders, increased political rights by perception current regime has improved access to up to five political rights, democratic progress by view that current regime is more democratic than previous one.

Political attitudes and perceptions

Source: 2001-2003 East Asia Barometer Surveys

First and Second Wave Comparison

Satisfaction with the way democracy works (% satisfied)

45.448.1

61.448.1

47.9

55.967.163.4

52.4

37.8

88.979.7

47.9

67.5

0

20

40

60

80

100

First wave Second wave

Democracy is always preferable(% Agree)

68.563.4

49.442.7

40.4

47.554

39.7

63.6

50.6

83.8

72.7

40.4

43.1

0

20

40

60

80

100

Japa

n

Korea

Taiwan

Mon

golia

Philip

pines

Thaila

nd

Hong

Kong


We should get rid of parliament and elections and have a strong leader decide things

(% Strongly or somewhat disagree)

79.178.584.482.7

68.3

76.1

59.2

35.8

69.4

58.6

76.6

68.771.5

78.8

0

20

40

60

80

100


Authoritarian detachment(% Oppose all three non-democratic alternatives except

expert rule)

54.3

71.2

65.1

76.8

50.0

30.9 37.028.4

35.638.5 43.1

54.7

49.4

73

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0


Democracy can solve the problem(% Positive response)

63.1

66.8 71.7

55.2

46.8

54.3

7277.0

60.755.9

89.8

66.2

39.2 39.2

0

20

40

60

80

100


Whatever its faults may be, our form of government is still the best for us

(% Agree)

21.627.6

36

21.2

56.262.2

66.961.2

53.351

69.1

61.5

77.3

65.5

82.7

48.5

68.1

83.8

56.6

76

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Japa

n

Korea

Taiwan

Mon

golia

Philipp

ines

Thaila

nd

Indo

nesia

Mal

aysia

Singap

ore

Hong

Kong

Vietna

m

Cambo

diaChin

a

First Wave Second Wave

Second Wave

Q103. People have the power to change a government they don’t like

56.6

39.544.1

49.2

59.4

34.7

81.7

15.8

67

13.3

76.5

16.9

67.1

26.9

75.6

21.4

51.245.3

28.2

62.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Japa

n

Kor

ea

Taiw

anM

ongo

liaP

hilip

pine

sTh

aila

ndIn

done

sia

Mal

aysi

aS

inga

pore

Hon

g K

ong

Agree Disagree

Q113. How often do national governments abide by the law?

37.7

54.3

17

78.4

36.6

56.7

24.7

72.4

30.4

63.5

14.2

53.2

18.5

60.7

36.3

53.2

76.5

18

53

9.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Japa

n

Kor

ea

Taiw

anM

ongo

liaP

hilip

pine

sTh

aila

ndIn

done

sia

Mal

aysi

aS

inga

pore

Hon

g K

ong

Always/Usually Occasionally/Rarely

Q43. On the whole, how would you rate the freeness and fairness of the last national election?

66.4

18.2

57.3

27.1

46.741.3

66.8

25.9

54.4

40.2

66.6

19.1

83.3

13

72.6

15.8

85.2

6.8

37.6

7.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Japa

n

Kor

ea

Taiw

anM

ongo

liaP

hilip

pine

sTh

aila

ndIn

done

sia

Mal

aysi

aS

inga

pore

Hon

g K

ong

Free and fair/Minor problems Not free or fair/Major problems

Q110. People are free to speak what they think without fear

51.9

44.1

56.5

39.9

73

23.9

68.1

28.6

66.7

31.1

69.8

22.1

89.5

8.3

65.5

32

38.5

59.8

83.8

13

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Japa

n

Kor

ea

Taiw

an

Mon

golia

Phi

lippi

nes

Thai

land

Indo

nesi

a

Mal

aysi

a

Sin

gapo

re

Hon

g Ko

ngAgree Disagree

Q111. People can join any organization they like

56.5

38.2

64.3

29.9

76.8

18.8

78.6

18.4

65.3

32.2

68.5

23

90.1

6.2

71.3

25.2

45.651.4

80.1

13.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Japa

n

Kor

ea

Taiw

an

Mon

golia

Phi

lippi

nes

Thai

land

Indo

nesi

a

Mal

aysi

a

Sin

gapo

re

Hon

g Ko

ngAgree Disagree

Q116. How well do you think the government responds to what people want?

33.3

64.1

21.2

74.4

35.8

59.2

24.6

73.8

32.7

65

47.3

4146.2

52.556.2

38.8

66.4

30.4

43.6

49.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Japa

n

Kor

ea

Taiw

an

Mon

golia

Phi

lippi

nes

Thai

land

Indo

nesi

a

Mal

aysi

a

Sin

gapo

re

Hon

g Ko

ngResponsive Not Responsive

Q45-47. Access to Public Services

Japan Taiwan Mongolia Philippines Thailand Indonesia Malaysia Singapore

Place in Public

Primary School

67 2 61 3 18 56 65 16 77 8 80 20 70 9 66 19

Medical Treatment

Nearby94 4 90 8 25 60 57 34 83 11 84 13 80 18 89 10

Help from Police

53 14 47 16 38 47 41 26 61 19 56 26 47 21 75 10

Ea

sy D

ifficul

t Ea

sy E

as

yEa

sy E

as

yEa

sy E

as

yEa

sy D

ifficul

t Difficu

ltD

ifficul

t Difficu

ltD

ifficul

t Difficu

ltD

ifficul

t

Don’t walk away after democratic transition, but invest in the consolidation of new democracies at risk.

Consolidation is not only about elections and civil society, but even more about rule of law, accountability, and governance – the “quality of democracy.”

Promoting the “d” word is less valuable than promoting deeper democratic values.

Longterm modernization promotes democratic values, but slowly and unevenly.

The modernization process that most changes values is education. Take authoritarian governments at their word in their democratic claims, and

work with the public’s rising expectations for democracy.

Policy implications

Institutionalizing African Democracy:Formal or Informal?

Michael Bratton, Michigan State University

Research Questions

What are the trends over time in popular support for democracy?

Is nostalgia for authoritarian rule growing or shrinking?

Over time, are Africans becoming more or less satisfied with the quality of democracy delivered by their leaders?

How much democracy do they think they have?

How do they arrive at their attitudes to democracy? With reference to formal or informal institutions? Which is more important?

If informal institutions remain important to African politics, do they help or harm democracy?

The AfrobarometerA comparative series of public attitude surveys on democracy, markets and civil society.

Run by Idasa (South Africa), CDD (Ghana) and MSU, plus national partners. Based on:

* national probability samples (1200-3600) representing all adult citizens

* margin of sampling error of +/- 3% at 95 % confidence

* face-to-face interviews by trained interviewers in language of choice

* response rates averaging above 80%

* standard questionnaire with identical or functionally equivalent items

DataComparisons of observed values across countries, and over time, between:

* Afrobarometer Round 1 (12 countries), 1999-2001 (21,000+ cases)



Back to Afrobarometer Countries

Figure 2: Coverage of Afrobarometer Surveys, 1999-2006

http://www.afrobarometer.org/countries.html

75 75 7570 70 69 68 66 65 65 64

61 57 56 56

5043 38

62

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Figure 3: Support for Democracy, 18 African Countries, 2005

Percent who prefer democracyAfrobarometer mean

“Which of these three statements is closest to your own opinion? A. Democracy is preferable to any other kind of government; B. In some circumstances a non-democratic government can be preferable; C. For someone like me, it doesn’t matter what form of government we have”

92 8984 83 83 82 81 80

76 72 72 71 66 6662 57

51

40

73

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Figure 4: Rejection of Military Rule,18 African Countries, 2005

Percent who disapprove of military ruleAfrobarometer mean

“There are many ways to govern a country. Would you disapprove or approve of the following alternative:The army comes in to govern the country?”

88 86 83 82 82 82 78 7674 73 71 70

66 59 5756 52

44

71

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Figure 5: Rejection of One-Party Rule,18 African Countries, 2005

Percent who disapprove of one-party ruleAfrobarometer mean

“There are many ways to govern a country. Would you disapprove or approve of the following alternative:Only one political party is allowed to stand for election and hold office?”

Figure 6: Popular Demand for Democracy:Average Trends, 12 African Countries, 2000-2005

61

73

78

6962

6669

70

7882

7880

46

56 56

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

circa 2000 circa 2002 circa 2005

Support democracy Reject one-party rule Reject military rule

Reject one-man rule Patient with democracy

Percentage approving democracy or rejecting other political regimes

Figure 7: Popular Support for Democracy:Trend Comparison, Extreme Cases, 2000-2005

40

50 50

84

65

38

30

40

50

60

70

80

90


Lesotho Tanzania

Percentage saying that “democracy is preferable to any other form of government.”2005 figure for Tanzania includes 59 percent “don’t know/don’t understand.”

*

Figure 6: Popular Demand for Democracy:Average Trends, 12 African Countries, 2000-2005

61

73

78

6962

6669

70

7882

7880

46

56 56

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85


Support democracy Reject one-party rule Reject military rule

Reject one-man rule Patient with democracy

Percentage approving democracy or rejecting other political regimes

Figure 8: Perceived Supply of Democracy:Average Trends, 12 African Countries, 2000-2005

58

52

5049

48

54

45

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60


Satisfied with democracy Perceive extensive democracy

Think country will remain democratic

Percentages (a) satisfied with “the way democracy works” (b) perceiving that country has “full” or “almost full” democracy and (c) thinking country will remain a democracy in the future

Figure 9: Satisfaction with Democracy:Trend Comparison, Extreme Cases, 2000-2005

54

70

84

35

26

60

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90


Ghana Nigeria

Percentage “satisfied” or “very satisfied” with “the way democracy works in (this country).”* The estimate for Ghana in 2002 is based on 15 percent “don’t knows” (imputed from R1 and R3 distributions)

*

70 69

63 59 5957

53 53 5148 46

40 37

26 26 26 26

14

45

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Percent fairly or very satisified Afrobarometer mean

“Overall, how satisfied are you with the way democracy works in (your country)?”

Figure 10: Satisfaction with Democracy:

18 African Countries, 2005

Figure 8: Perceived Supply of Democracy:Average Trends, 12 African Countries, 2000-2005

58

52

5049

48

54

45

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60


Satisfied with democracy Perceive extensive democracy

Think country will remain democratic

Percentages (a) satisfied with “the way democracy works” (b) perceiving that country has “full” or “almost full” democracy and (c) thinking country will remain a democracy in the future

Multiple Regression (OLS) a

1.319 .027 .000

-.093 .008 -.083 .000

-.057 .009 -.049 .000

.002 .000 .045 .000

.062 .011 .045 .000

.052 .002 .185 .000

(Constant)

Gender (Female)

Habitat (Rural)

Age

Religion (Muslim)

Education

Model1

B Std. Error

UnstandardizedCoefficients

Beta

StandardizedCoefficients

Sig.

Figure 13: Explaining Popular Demand for Democracy:

Selected Social Influences

Model Summary

.217 .047 .047 .54511

R R SquareAdjustedR Square

Std. Error ofthe Estimate

The dependent variable (demand for democracy) is an average index of support for democracy and rejection of three authoritarian alternatives (military, one-party and one-man rule).

It measures the depth of popular commitments to a democratic regime.

Multiple Regression (OLS)

1.318 .021 63.233 .000

.356 .007 .427 49.247 .000

.200 .007 .242 27.910 .000

(Constant)Free and Fair Elections

Trust in the President

Model1

B Std. Error


Beta


t Sig.

Model Summary

.575 a .330 .330 .767

Model1



Dependent Variable: EXTENT OF DEMOCRACYa.

Figure 14: Explaining the Perceived Extent of Democracy:

Formal Institutions versus Informal Ties, 2005

Source: Individual-level data, Afrobarometer Round 3 for original 12 Afrobarometer countries(n = 17,917 unweighted, 14,400 weighted)

Adjusted R square for all 18 R3 countries = .287 (Beta = .396 for free and fair elections. Beta = .239 for trust in president)

Figure 15: Explaining the Extent of Democracy: Formal versus Informal Predictors

6459

36

41

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Circa 2000 Circa 2005

Formal Institution (Free and Fair Elections)

Informal Tie (Trust the President)

Percentage share of explained variance in extent of democracy accounted for by each predictor 12 original Afrobarometer countries (Round 1, N = 21,531; Round 3, N = 17,917)

“In your opinion, how much of a democracy is (your country) today?”

Figure 16: Support for Democratic Institutions:Average Trends, 16 African Countries, 2002-2005

7981

63

55

6561

66

74

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

circa 2002 circa 2005

Support open elections Support multiple parties

Support legislative independence Support judicial review

Percentage approving democratic side of forced choice statements (see text for wordings)

81

47

66

36

65

46

63

41

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Elections that removeleaders

President subject torule of law

A representativelegislature

Peaceful multipartycompetition

Figure 17: Formal Institutions:Popular Demand versus Perceived Supply, 18 African Countries, 2005

Persons who want this institution Persons who think this institution is provided

Percentage approving democratic side of forced choice statements (see text for wordings)

43

62

64

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Clientelism Corruption Presidentialism

Figure 18: Indicators of Informal Institutions:18 African Countries, 2005

Percent Who Acknowledge this Informal Institution

Clientelism: Average construct of agreement with two items:1. “In our country these days, we should show more respect for authority.” 2. “Once in office, leaders are obliged to help their home community”

Corruption: “How many of the following people do you think are involved in corruption? Members of parliament/National assembly deputies? Elected local government councilors?

Presidentialism: How much do you trust each of the following? The President?

Figure 19: Explaining the Extent of Democracy:Comparing Formal and Informal Institutions, 2005

Multiple Regression (OLS)a

2.627 .038 69.910 .000

.021 .006 .033 3.455 .001

-.028 .005 -.045 -5.366 .000

.081 .006 .121 12.481 .000

-.064 .006 -.097 -10.947 .000

027 .006 .033 -4.149 .000

-.131 .009 -.121 -14.126 .000

.203 .007 .255 28.679 .000

(Constant)

FORMAL INSTITUTIONS Elections that remove leaders

Peaceful multiparty competition

A representative legislature

President subject to rule of law

INFORMAL INSTITUTIONS Clientelism

Corruption

Trust in the President

Model1

B Std. Error


Beta


t Sig.

Dependent Variable: EXTENT OF DEMOCRACYa.

Model Summary

.433 .187 .187 .798

Model1



Source: Individual-level data, Afrobarometer Round 3

(n = 25,397 unweighted, 21,600 weighted, across 18 countries)

www.afrobarometer.org

http://www.afrobarometer.org/

• Jordan: Center for Strategic Studies• Palestine: Center for Policy and Survey

Research• Morocco: Hassan II University-Mohammadia• Algeria: University of Algiers• Kuwait: Kuwait University• Yemen: Yemen Interactions • Lebanon: Statistics Lebanon• United States: University of Michigan (PI),

Princeton University (co-PI)

The Arab Barometer Team

2006 Arab Human Development Report: Deficit

of Freedom. “Viewed from the perspective of

freedom and good governance, it is difficult to

describe subsequent events in the Arab arena as the

kind of widespread, thorough-going reform for

which the report called…despite the growing winds

of protest against governments and the intensifying

demands for radical reform around the Arab

world.”

Thinking about Governance and Democracy in the Arab World

2006 SurveysAll

Countries Jordan Palestine Algeria Morocco Kuwait

Despite drawbacks, democracy is the best system of government

86%N=5,740

86%N=1143

83%N=1270

83%N=1300

92%N=1277

88%N=750

Having a democratic system of government in our country would be good

90%N=5,740

93%N=1143

88%N=1270

81%N=1300

96%N=1277

93%N=750

Support for Democracy Has Consistently Been High in All Muslim Arab Countries Surveyed

Support for Democracy Is High among More as well as Less Religious Persons

2006 Frequency of Reading the Quran

Agree that

despite

drawbacks,

democracy

is the best

system of

government

Everyday

several times a week Sometimes rarely never

All Countries

86% 86% 86% 85% 90%

Jordan 87% 85% 85% 84% 83%

Palestine 85% 83% 80% 78% 93%

Algeria 80% 82% 85% 80% 90%

Morocco 90% 94% 95% 93% 90%

Kuwait 87% 89% 90% 86% 86%

What Qualities Are Important in the Spouse of Your Son or Daughter?

That S/he Prays Is:

Very Important

Despite Its Problems, Democracy Is the Best Political SystemJordan 2006 Palestine 2006

Strongly Agree/Agree

Disagree/Strongly Disagree

StronglyAgree/Agree

Disagree/StronglyDisagree

53 59 56 62

Somewhat Important 26 25 24 20

A little Important 8 6 9 7

Not Important 13 10 11 11

3227

3340 44

32 29

1223

149

33

1223

05

1015202530354045

Algeria Jordan Morocco Kuwait Palestine Yemen Lebanon

Internal reasons External reasons

Why Does the Arab World Lag Behind? What Do Ordinary Citizens Think

Do People Think the is U.S. Helping?To What Extent Do You Agree or Disagree with the Following Statement?“U.S. Democracy Promotion Policies toward Arab Countries Are Good”

2006 The most important characteristics of democracy

Jordan

Opportunity to change government=20% Freedom to criticize government=19% Reduce income gap between rich and poor=30% Provide basic necessities like food=31%

Palestine


Algeria


Understanding and Support of Democracy Are Often Instrumental

People Are Divided about the Role of Religion in Government To What Extent Do you Agree or Disagree with the Following Statement?

“Religious Practice Is a Private Matter and Should Be Separated from Socio-Political Life”

Influence of Religious, Cultural and Political Orientations, Expressed as Probability of the Null Hypothesis, on “Religious Practice Is a Private Matter

and Should Be Separated from Socio-Political Life” (H0 if p > .050)

Items from Surveys in 2006 Jordan Palestine Algeria Morocco Kuwait

Religiosity: How often do you read the Quran? Everyday or almost, Several times a week, Sometimes, Rarely, Not at all

.871 .305 .106 .715 .343

Culture: A university education is more important for a boy than a girl. Strongly Agree, Agree, Disagree, Strongly Disagree

.629 .241 .484 .753 .635

Political Discontent: Using a 10-point scale, where 1 means very dissatisfied and 10 means very satisfied, indicate how satisfied you are with the performance of the current (Jordanian) government

.350 .000 .000 .004 .707

Political Discontent: Our political leaders care about ordinary citizens. Strongly Agree, Agree, Disagree, Strongly Disagree

.008 .087 .037 .099 .050

External Interference: Some people have said that the Arab world lags behind other regions. Which of the following statements do you most agree with? It is because of Domestic factors, Both Domestic and International factors, International factors

.955 .267 .494 .060 .001

Disagreement about the Political Role of Islam Is Equally Pronounced among People

Who Do and Do Not Favor Democracy

Men of Religion Should Have No Influence in Government Decisions (Jordan 2006)

Strong Agree/Agree Disagree/Strong Disagree

Democracy Is the Best Very Strong/ Strong

Political System

Somewhat Strong/ Not Strong

Despite Its Problems

40.9%

Secular Democracy

44.4%

Democracy with Religion

7.3%

Secular Non-Democracy

7.5%

Religious System without Democracy

2006 Surveys

Strongly Agree or Agree that Democracy, Despite Its Drawbacks,

Is the Best Political System

Strongly agree/Agree that men of religion

should influence government

decisions

Strongly disagree/Disagree that men of religion should influence government

decisions

All Countries 54% 46%

Jordan 52% 48%

Palestine 55% 45%

Algeria 58% 42%

Morocco 63% 37%

Kuwait 39% 61%

Percent Agreeing with Statement about Democratic Values

2006

Surveys

It is (very) important to have political leaders who are open to

different political opinions

Does not mind having neighbors of a different

race

Agree that Men and women should have

equal job opportunities

and wages.

All Countries

Secular Democracy 95 (50) 86 76

Islamic Democracy 95 (63) 82 70

Jordan Secular Democracy 94 (53) 79 66


Palestine Secular Democracy 96 (58) NA 79

Islamic Democracy 97 (61) NA 72

Algeria Secular Democracy 95 (60) 83 71


Morocco Secular Democracy 93 (62) 94 78


Kuwait Secular Democracy 96 (64) 88 85


2006 Surveys

(*** p H0 < .001)

All Countries Jordan Palestine Algeria Morocco Kuwait

Reads Quranmore often

.030(.029)

-.107(.072)

.034(.061)

-.074(.076)

-.021(.057)

-.027(.107)

Higher trust in prime minister

.190(.032)***

.212(.084)***

.334(.064)***

.152(.085)

-.092(.069)

.318(.102)***

Citizens have power to influence government

-.106(.038)***

-.471(.093)***

-.350(.088)***

-.146(.084)

-.017(.081)

.635(.144)***

Democracies not good at maintaining order

-.135(.042)***

-.340(.100)***

-.264(.090)***

-.248(.099)***

.244(.104)***

-.330(.129)***

Higher education

.051(.033)

.070(.091)

.015(.077)

-.037(.100)

.026(.081)

.065(.099)

Older age

.058(.029)*

.142(.068)*

-.011(.059)

.062(.081)

.107(.067)

-.031(.072)

Less favorable family economic situation

-.074(.046)

-.112(.068)

.036(.087)

.014(.131)

-.217(.114)*

.707(.195)***

Constant -.328(.240)

-2.267(.568)***

-.853(.525)

-1.100(.672)

.094(.594)

.334(.754)

Binary Logistic Regression Models Estimating Support for Secularism among Persons Who Support Democracy

Presentation to Press and Others in Morocco

Documents

How East Asians View Democracy. First systematic comparative survey of attitudes and values toward politics, governance, democracy and reform, and citizens’