HOW MARRIAGE WORKS AND WHY MARITAL EDUCATION

(USUALLY) FAILS Benjamin R. Karney

Department of Psychology, UCLA

October 1, 2010

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MARRIAGE IS IMPORTANT AND VALUED

Over 90% of Americans will marry in their lifetimes.

Those in satisfying marriages live longer, healthier lives.

Satisfaction with marriage predicts life satisfaction better than satisfaction with other domains.

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“Our national goal should be no less than to rebuild a marriage culture.”- David Popenoe, Professor of Sociology, Rutgers University, Testimony Before the Subcommittee on Human Resources, Committee on Ways and Means, United States House of Representatives, Washington, DC, May 22, 2001

“The Decline of Marriage”-  Editorial by James Q. Wilson, San Diego Union-Tribune, February 17, 2002

 “’Culture of Marriage’ Disappearing”-  Headline in the Cleveland Plain Dealer, January 2, 2005

MARRIAGE UNDER ATTACK!

U.S. DIVORCE RATES OVER TIME

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Source: National Center for Health Statistics

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MARRIAGE RATES AMONG YOUNG ADULTS AGES 25-34, 1965-2010 (PERCENT)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census and American Community Survey.

Benjamin Karney, RAND Corporation

SES AND THE PROBABILITY OF DIVORCE

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1015202530354045

Unemployed Poverty Welfare Income

LowMiddleHigh

Source: Bramlett & Mosher, 2002, Figure 26

FROM WELFARE REFORM TO MARRIAGE PROMOTION

Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 (PROWRA)

Expired in 2002 – extended 20 times before reauthorization was passed in February, 2006

Final version allocated $150 million of TANF money per year toward demonstrations and research.

HOW TO SPEND 750 MILLION PROMOTING MARRIAGE

Advertising campaigns on the value of marriage

Education in high schools on marriage values & relationship skills

Education programs for non-married expectant & recent parents

Education & skills training for engaged couples & for couples & individuals interested in marriage

Skills training programs for married couples

Divorce reduction programs that teach relationship skills

Marriage mentoring programs

“Programs to reduce the disincentives to marriage in means-tested aid programs, if offered in conjunction with any activity described in this subparagraph.”

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…did it work?

THAT WAS FIVE YEARS AGO

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The Fragile Families study The promise of the “magic moment”

From basic research to intervention

GOAL: “To learn whether well-designed

interventions can help couples fulfill their aspirations for a healthy relationship, marriage, and a strong family.”

THE BUILDING STRONG FAMILIES STUDY

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If the best study of marital education ever conducted shows no effects, then we’ve got a problem.

What’s the problem?

How can we solve it and do better at improving the lives of families?

PUTTING ON THE BRAKES

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Identify the assumptions of current marital education efforts

Describe research evaluating those assumptions

Present an expanded model of how marriages actually work

Discuss the implications of that model for family polices and programs

GOALS OF THIS TALK

WHAT IS THE THEORY BEHIND CURRENT MARITAL EDUCATION

EFFORTS?

Think again of what the $750 million can be spent on: Values education Communication skills training

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1. Marital problems stem from not caring enough about marriage

2. Marital problems stem from not knowing enough about marriage

3. Low-income populations are especially likely to fall short in these ways

THE ASSUMPTIONS

ARE FAMILY VALUES DECLINING?

Thornton & Young-DeMarco, 2001 Monitoring the Future General Social Survey International Social Science Project Intergenerational Panel Study of Parents and Children National Survey of Families and Households

“There is very little evidence that the commitment of Americans to children, marriage, and family life has eroded substantially in the past two decades” (p. 1030).

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Marriage as central to personal fulfillment Cherlin (2009)

Low-income populations are less tolerant of divorce than higher income populations. Karney, Garvan, & Thomas (2003)

Single mothers on welfare delaying marriage due to fears of divorce Edin & Kefalas (2003)

CARING TOO MUCH?

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THE BEHAVIORAL MODEL OF MARRIAGE

DYADIC PROCESSES(e.g., problem-solving,

social support, attributions)

MARITAL OUTCOMES(e.g., satisfaction,

stability, healthy children)

The way spouses interact does: Correlate with satisfaction cross-sectionally Predict satisfaction and divorce longitudinally John Gottman pioneered this work

The way spouses interpret each other’s behavior does, too

Pretty obvious, right?

SUPPORT FOR THE BEHAVIORAL MODEL?

Karney/ 19

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Frequently! Gottman, et al., 1998 Lawrence, et al., 2008

But not always. Gottman & Krokoff, 1989 Karney & Bradbury, 1997

SO: NEGATIVE BEHAVIORS ARE BAD?

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Frequently! Karney & Bradbury, 2000 Paleari, Ragalia, & Fincham, 2005

But not always. The Doormat Effect (Luchies et al.,

2010)

SURELY FORGIVING OUR PARTNERS IS GOOD?

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The behavioral model is pretty thin conceptually

“A conceptualization of ‘the husband is unhappy because he doesn’t communicate well’ is about as useful a conceptualization as ‘the patient died because his heart stopped beating.’”

Heyman, 2001

WHAT HAS BEEN HOLDING BACK PROGRESS?

EXPANDING THE BEHAVIORAL MODEL

Initial

Satisfaction

Relations

hip Processes

Relationship

Outcomes

CONTEXT

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Strong associations between SES and marital outcomes point this way

Stress of all kinds is associated with higher divorce rates

Marital satisfaction covaries with fluctuations in acute stress over time (Karney et al., 2005)

Spill-over vs. cross-over

CONTEXT CANNOT BE OVERLOOKED

TWO ROUTE MODEL OF STRESS EFFECTS

Stress

RelationshipContent

RelationshipSatisfaction

Route 1: The Content of the Relationship

1010 Newlywed Couples; Schramm et al., 2005.

CONTEXT AND STRESS AFFECTS…

What we talk about with our partner

How much we interact with our partner

When we interact with our partner

Where we interact with our partner

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DOES STRESS AFFECT THE EXPERIENCE OF SPECIFIC

MARITAL PROBLEMS?

2 t effect size r

Wives .60 3.7*** .38

After periods of relatively high stress, wives perceived more severe problems in the marriage, controlling for changes in their satisfaction.

Karney/ 29

Specific problems mediated the stress spillover effect.

DO SPECIFIC RELATIONSHIP PROBLEMS MEDIATE STRESS

EFFECTS?

Stress

Specific Relationship

Problems

Marital Satisfaction

.60*** -.45***

.01 (-.42**)

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Some problems are just worse than others

Forgiveness is a bad idea if it rewards the transgressor

Maybe forgiveness only works for mild problems?

EXPLAINING THE MIXED RESULTS ON FORGIVENESS

FORGIVENESS INTERACTS WITH PROBLEM SEVERITY

McNulty, J. K., O’Mara, E. M., & Karney B. R. (2008). Benevolent cognitions as a strategy of relationship maintenance: Don’t sweat the small stuff…but it’s not all small stuff. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 94, 631-646.

less severe prob-lems

more severe prob-lems

-4-3.5

-3-2.5

-2-1.5

-1-0.5

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more forgiving

less forgiving

TWO ROUTE MODEL OF STRESS EFFECTS

Stress

RelationshipContent

RelationshipSatisfaction

Route 2: The Processing of Relationship Problems

RelationshipProcesses

Karney/ 33

DOES STRESS AFFECT WIVES’ TENDENCY TO FORGIVE?

2 t effect size r

Wives .32 2.1* .23

After periods of relatively high stress, wives are more likely to blame their husbands for negative behaviors.

Karney/ 34

DOES WIVES’ FORGIVENESS MEDIATE STRESS EFFECTS?

Tendency to forgive partially mediated the stress spillover effect.

Stress

Maladaptive Attributions

MaritalSatisfaction

.32* -.20***

-.25* (-.42**)

CONSEQUENCES OF STRESS:STRESS CROSSOVER

Partner A Partner B

DOES PARTNER’S OWN STRESS MODERATE STRESS CROSSOVER?

Stress crossover should be greatest when partners have higher levels of their own stress

Partner A

negative

behavior

If Partner B has low

stress

If Partner B has high

stress

Adaptive response Little

crossover

Maladaptive response High

crossover

DOES PARTNER’S OWN STRESS MODERATE STRESS CROSSOVER?

Wives Low Stress Wives High Stress88

90

92

94

96

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Stress crossover was greatest at times when wives had higher

stress

Husband Low StressHusband High Stress

Wiv

es’ S

atis

fact

ion

SO WHY IS RELATIONSHIP MAINTENANCE SO HARD?

Is it because people do not know what to do?

Neff & Karney, 2004, 2007, 2009:

The same couples who can be forgiving when stress is low, are less forgiving when stress is high.

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The effects of skills interventions are likely to fade quickly They do (Blanchard et al., 2009)

Programs teaching skills might actually backfire For some couples, they do (Halford, Sanders,

and Behrens, 2001)

Marital interaction may not be a skill Think “capacity”

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR MARITAL EDUCATION?

Karney/ 40

THE STRESS-VULNERABILITY-ADAPTATION (SVA) MODEL

Enduring Vulnerabilities

External Stress

Adaptive Processes

Marital Quality

MaritalDissolution

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Because programs to improve communication do not have lasting effects

Because communication may only be a symptom of larger problems that marital education programs ignore

Because all of this is most true in the low-income populations that have been targeted

SO WHY DOES MARITAL EDUCATION USUALLY FAIL?

THE UNIQUE PROBLEMS OF LOW-INCOME RELATIONSHIPS

Problems for all relationships

Spending time together (F=2.72, p=.04) Sex (F=1.90, p=.13) Each other’s parents (F=2.56, p=.05) Being a parent/having children (F=.42, p=.74) Communication (F=.97, p=.41) Household chores (F=.89, p=.44)

Problems more severe in lower income

Money (F=14.83, p<.0001) Drinking/drug use (F=13.64, p<.0001) Being faithful (F=11.97,p<.0001) Friends (F=10.79,p<.0001)

SUMMARY OF PROBLEM ANALYSES

The problems addressed by relationship skills classes are not more severe in low-income couples.

The problems that are especially severe for low-income couples may be independent of relationship skills and attitudes.

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Marriage-friendly environments: Health care Child care Living wage for working people

Does this work? Norway (Hardoy & Schone, 2008)

Money as a marital aid

NEW DIRECTIONS FOR SUPPORTING MARRIAGE