DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Long term Development of the Energy Market in Macedonia and the Region, June, 2016, Skopje

How to increase penetration of

renewables in energy system

Prof.dr.sc. Neven Duić

International Centre for Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems

Power Engineering and Energy Management ChairDepartment of Energy, Power Engineering and EnvironmentFaculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture

University of Zagreb, Croatia

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

LCOE – various technologies

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

3

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

PV revolucija

Grid parity

reached in

102

countries

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

New installed and decommissioned power

capacity in EU, 2015 [MW], EWEA

Power sector developments

In and out …

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Power sector developments

Global installed generation capacity net change, 2015 [GW]Bloomberg New Energy Finance/UNEP Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2016

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Power sector developments

EU electricity generation installed capacity net change,

2000-2015 [MW], EWEA

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Denmark – 42%

Ireland, Portugal – 24%

Cape Verde, Spain – 20%

Nicaragua, Germany – 15% Costa Rica, Romania – 13%

Sweden – 12% Uruguay, EU – 10%

Estonia – 9% Lithuania, Greece, Poland – 7%

Austria, Belgium, Netherlands, Morocco, UK – 6%

Croatia, Cyprus, Honduras, India, Italy, N. Zealand, US – 5%

Australia, Bulgaria, Canada, China, France, Tunisia, Turkey,

World – 4%

Brazil, Chile, Finland – 3%

Dominican R, Hungary, Latvia, Lux., Macedonia, Norway,– 2%

Czechia, Japan, Mexico2014, Ukraine – 1%

hard

easy

Wind share in electricity demand 2015

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

PV revolution

Solar share in electricity demand 2015Greece, Italy – 8%

Germany – 7%

EU, Belgium, Bulgaria – 4%

Czech Rep., Romania, Spain – 3%

World, Denmark, Malta, Lux., Slovakia, Slovenia,

UK – 2%

Austria, Cyprus, France, Netherlands, Portugal,

US – 1%

Croatia, Hungary – 0.5%

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

How to increase penetration of renewables in energy system?• More grid capacity

• Cycling of thermal power plants

• Power exchanges

• Demand management and integration of power, heating, cooling, transport and water systems

• Energy storage

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Smoothing intermittency by geographical dispersion

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Baseload + wind

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Flexibility of conventional PP

Flexible generation: Backing up renewables, RESAP, EURELECTRIC, 2011

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Electricity price = marginal cost

Demand

Supply

HE NECoal

Import

Gas

Fuel oil

Marginal cost

Base load

Electricity market

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Demand

Supply

HE

NECoal

Imports

Gas

Fuel oil

Marginal cost

Base load –

windy night

Wind

Electricity price = marginal cost

Electricity market

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Nord pool spot

DK+EE+FI+LT+

LV+NO+SE

75% market

http://www.nordpoolspot.com/Market-data1/Maps/Elspot-

Market-Overview/Elspot-Prices

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Go-live!

NWE+CWE price

coupling on

February 4, 2014

75% of European

power marketES+PT connected in

May 2014

IT+SI connected in Feb

2015

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Wind and solar: Coal vs. gas?

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

A new coal power plant?

19

80

www.cropex.hr, 19.2.2016

New coal PP

500 MW * 8000 h * 50 EUR/MWh

= 200 MEUR/year subsidy

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Consequences of market liberalisation: Demission of base load

The importance of balancing power (gas, hydro)

Cycling of old coal power plants (4000 hours by 2020)

Market arbitrage (time delay, power-to-heat, power-to-water, e-mobility, demand management, power-to-efuels)

Markets and RES

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Power to heat

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Electromobility Only personal cars and short distance utility

vehicles, 430000 PHEV and BEV sold in 2015

If RESe 80% reduction of primary energy

Fast charging 70 kW – huge problem if left uncontrolled, ex AT, 4 mln cars arrives home, plugs in – 280 GW (14 GW installed cap)

Smart charging – market based, smoothing the demand

Demand management

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Smart charging

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Wind and solar are coming, but difficult to integrate

Integration of power, heating, cooling, water and transport system necessary

Great time for engineers!

Natural gas and hydro critical for transition

Conclusions

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

PV: 65 GW

Wind: 50 GW

CSP: 11 GW

Dammed hydro: from 18.8 to 23.5 GW

Large-scale HPs: 1.5 GW

Solar thermal with energy storage in DH: 13.3 %

Seasonal thermal energy storage: 230 GWh

Waste incineration plants: 0.96 GWe

Geothermal plants: 1.25 GWe

Geothermal heating plants: 7.5 GW

River hydro, pumped-hydro 2 GW, 1000 GWh

Decommission of nuclear PPs

Reduction in thermal power plants capacity to 24.7 GW

Supply side 2050 – SEE 100% RESZero carbon energy system of South East Europe in

2050, D.F. Dominković, I. Bačeković, B. Ćosić, G.

Krajačić, T. Pukšec, N. Duić, N. Markovska, Applied

Energy, doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.03.046

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!

Благодарам за вниманието!

Neven.Duic@fsb.hr