“How to tell President the Facts”Statistics and the Environment.

Adrián Fernández, PhD.National Institute of Ecology, SEMARNAT, Mexico.

August 6, 2003

Mexico City population at risk:

•20 million inhabitants, including:

2.2 million children

250,000 street sellers

250,000 taxi, microbus and bus drivers

• More than 30 million trips-person are made every day

• People spend in average 3 hr commuting per day;

20% of commuters spend 4 or more hours

• CO, PM, VOCs and NOx exposure levels are 2-3 times

higher in commuting microenvironments than at

fixed site monitoring stations

Mexico City population at risk:

•20 million inhabitants, including:

2.2 million children

250,000 street sellers

250,000 taxi, microbus and bus drivers

• More than 30 million trips-person are made every day

• People spend in average 3 hr commuting per day;

20% of commuters spend 4 or more hours

• CO, PM, VOCs and NOx exposure levels are 2-3 times

higher in commuting microenvironments than at

fixed site monitoring stations

Lead (g/m3) CO (ppm)

SO2 (ppm)

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Concentraciones (ppm)

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Concentraciones (ppm)

1.28

0.98

0.61

0.10

0.090.120.160.240.210.25

0.32

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

µg/m≥

Annual average concentration Dowtown (Merced) monitoring station

Lead

• Unleaded gasoline introduced in 1990

• Leaded gasoline completely phased out in 1997

• Average blood lead levels dropped from 20 ug/dl in the late 1980s to less than 10 ug/dl in the late 1990s

Sulfur Dioxide

• Industrial heavy fuel oil was phased out in mid 1990s

• Sulfur content of diesel was reduced to 0.05% in 1995

• Power plants and other industry shifted to natural gas in the early 1990s

Main reasons for air quality improvement 1990-1999

Ozone (ppm) PM10 (g/m3)

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Concentraciones (ppm)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

µg/m≥

NO2 (ppm)

0.000

0.010

0.020

0.030

0.040

0.050

0.060

0.070

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Concentraciones (ppm)

Annual average concentration Downtown (Merced) monitoring station

Number of days with ozone above 100, 150, 175, 200, 225, 250 and 300 AQ Index Points

Year >100 >150 >175 >200 >225 >250 >275 >300Number of

data

1988 329 228 126 66 18 8 2 0 366

1989 329 129 56 15 4 2 1 0 365

1990 328 220 151 84 47 20 8 3 365

1991 353 296 245 174 114 61 27 8 365

1992 332 266 203 123 75 37 19 11 366

1993 324 241 155 80 42 14 8 1 365

1994 344 262 186 93 36 4 0 0 365

1995 324 262 191 88 36 6 3 0 365

1996 327 235 152 69 27 5 0 0 366

1997 322 214 123 52 14 2 0 0 365

1998 320 215 133 58 16 3 0 0 365

1999 300 188 98 30 10 2 0 0 365

2000 323 184 77 20 5 0 0 0 366

2001 296 143 54 12 2 0 0 0 365

Ozone annual peaks in Mexico City and the South Coast

0.000

0.100

0.200

0.300

0.400

0.500

0.600

1973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000

Concentration (ppm)

South Coast Air Basin

ZMVM (5 stations*)

* Tlalnepantla (TLA), Xalostoc (XAL), Merced (MER), Pedregal (PED) y Cerro de la Estrella (CES)

Tailpipe emissions of CO in g/l FTP-75 cycle tests

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1 101 201 301 401 501 601 701 801 901 1001 1101 1201 1301

Tiempo, seg.

CO, g/l

FTP-75, km/hr 93-98 2000-01 90 y ant 1991-92

Tests on 36 vehicles of 4 technological strataTests on 36 vehicles of 4 technological strata

Evolution of vehicle emissions through three Remote Sensing Campaigns

• Several thousand vehicles were measured in each campaign• Most of monitoring points were the same• Average age of measured vehicles was 8 years

Campaign CO, % vol HC, ppm (C3) NO, ppm

2000* 1.3 440 914

1995 ** 2.1 1070 --

1991*** 4.3 2100 --

•*IMP, Study commissioned by CAM*IMP, Study commissioned by CAM

•**Bishop, Stedman, Dávalos, De la Garza (1977)**Bishop, Stedman, Dávalos, De la Garza (1977)

• *** Beaton, Bishop, Stedman (1992)*** Beaton, Bishop, Stedman (1992)

HC CO NOxUS emission limits

1972 2.2 24.2 NR1975 0.94 15.0 1.941978 0.94 15.0 1.251981 0.25 2.1 0.621994 0.16 2.1 0.25

Mexican emission limits (0 km)1975 2.5 29.2 NR1977 2.6 24.2 2.21988 2.0 22.2 2.31990 1.8 18.0 2.01991 0.7 7.0 1.41994 0.25 2.1 0.62

Tail-pipe emissions in g/km

2001* 0.16 2.1 0.25

* These emission levels were met in 1999 through a “voluntarily” agreement .

Comparison of USA and Mexican Standards

Rational for taking action with new cars

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1990 1995 2000 2010

2000-2010

93 - 99

84- 92

83 & earlier

Background for the TIER I negotiations (1)

• In 1997 INE started negotiations with Car Manufacturers Association (AMIA) to review standards for new vehicles

• Standards in México were similar to those applied in the US for 1981-1993 vehicles

• The difference in NOx emissions between a 1997 Suburban and a Cavalier was 7:1 (1.2 g/km vs 0.17 g/km, TIER I standard was 0.25 g/km)

• AMIA´s position: earliest possible date to meet the new standards TIER I (EPA 1994) was 2001

Background for the TIER I negotiations (1)

• In 1997 INE started negotiations with Car Manufacturers Association (AMIA) to review standards for new vehicles

• Standards in México were similar to those applied in the US for 1981-1993 vehicles

• The difference in NOx emissions between a 1997 Suburban and a Cavalier was 7:1 (1.2 g/km vs 0.17 g/km, TIER I standard was 0.25 g/km)

• AMIA´s position: earliest possible date to meet the new standards TIER I (EPA 1994) was 2001

Arguments stated by AMIA members in 1997:

• Regulatory efforts should concentrate only in old cars

• Altitude played an important role

• Gasoline quality was a serious problem (sic)

• Costs for meeting TIER I (EPA 1994) will be too high

• Earliest possible date for TIER I = 2001

Arguments stated by AMIA members in 1997:

• Regulatory efforts should concentrate only in old cars

• Altitude played an important role

• Gasoline quality was a serious problem (sic)

• Costs for meeting TIER I (EPA 1994) will be too high

• Earliest possible date for TIER I = 2001

Creating value: the 2-year exemption of the vehicle inspection program

• Current federal standards mandate an inspection for all vehicles twice a year, irrespectively of age and model. I/M annoys people, and there is a risk of failing the test

• INE proposed to CAM a voluntary standard: “1999 & 2000 vehicles meeting TIER I (instead the obligatory target of 2001) would obtain a 2-year I/M test waiver

• Key issue: the scheme would generate competition, because some vehicles were already TIER I while others were not. Consumers would have more choices

• Result: all 1999 vehicles met the ”voluntary” standard

Creating value: the 2-year exemption of the vehicle inspection program

• Current federal standards mandate an inspection for all vehicles twice a year, irrespectively of age and model. I/M annoys people, and there is a risk of failing the test

• INE proposed to CAM a voluntary standard: “1999 & 2000 vehicles meeting TIER I (instead the obligatory target of 2001) would obtain a 2-year I/M test waiver

• Key issue: the scheme would generate competition, because some vehicles were already TIER I while others were not. Consumers would have more choices

• Result: all 1999 vehicles met the ”voluntary” standard

Emission levels of some 1998 & 1999 models

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

1998 1999

Pickup larga NissanCombi Panel

JetaSedán

Silverado

Suburban

Ram 1500Ram 2500

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1998 1999

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1998 1999

Hidrocarbons Carbon monoxide Nitrogen oxides

g/km g/km g/km

In May 2000 INE told the media that the I/M waiver would be cancelled because authorities had no news from AMIA

The following week AMIA sent a proposal to INE and went back to the negotiations table

Comparison of emissions: Prius vs VW TaxiComparison of emissions: Prius vs VW Taxi

Considering: about 200 km driven per day, 60,000 km per year

The annual emissions of 1 taxi are equivalent to:Emissions of 147 Prius for CO, 74 for NOx, 71 for THC, and 2 for CO2Fuel savings are around US $2000 - 2500 per year.

Emissions VW Beetle Taxi

PriusTaxi Difference% less

emissions

CO ton/year 2.5 0.017 2.48 99.2

CO2 ton/year 13.6 7.0 6.6 48.5

NOx kg/year 144 2.0 142 98.6

THC kg/year 285 4.0 281 98.6

Fuel efficiency of passenger vehicles comparable to the Fuel efficiency of passenger vehicles comparable to the hybrid vehicle Prius (model-year 2002)hybrid vehicle Prius (model-year 2002)

Source: Mexican Automotive Manufacturers Association & CONAE (www.conae.gob.mx)* These values were obtained under laboratory conditions

Manufacturer Brand Fuel Efficency (City)Km/L*

Toyota PriusCorolla

22.112.8

Chevrolet Astra 11.7

Dodge AthosNeón SE

14.410.9

Ford Focus 12.1

Nissan Sentra SE-R 12.2

Honda Civic 14.1

VW Golf A4 9.7

José María Velasco: Camino a Chalco con Volcanes,

1891.

Aerial view of Manzanillo Bay (INEGI, 2000)