Alberto Alfonzo & Tugberk TanrisevdirEconomic Development and International PoliticsINAF 100
What factors affect the odds of winning the African Cup of Nations?How do these factors affect?
We expect: Host Nations to be more probable to win the Tournament,GDP Per Capita (Constant US$ 2005) to have a positive effect on the chances of winning,Urban Population Percentage to have a positive impact on winning the Cup. On the other hand, the Total Population to have a negative effect.
Independent VariablesDependent VariablesGDP Per Capita (Constant 2005 US$)Chance of winning ACNHome AdvantageTotal PopulationUrban Population Percentage
We studied these factors on every country that reached the Semifinals and Finals of the CAN, from 1962 to 2012.
We created a new variable Points per Tournament to control for in which position countries finished in the tournament.
We ran regressions in order to find significant relationships between our independent and dependent variables.
Home Advantage11 countries which hosted the ACN won the title out of 29 tournaments.
GDP Per Capita (Constant 2005 US$)
For the 7 latest tournaments of CAN, we observed that 5 out of 7 times: countries with higher GDP Per Capita won.
2000Cameroon2) Nigeria3) South AfricaResultGDPPC868,1227604678,58615545854652,3388083YES/NO
2002Cameroon2) Senegal3) NigeriaResultGDPPC895,6460436701,7336937042675,55899580YES
2006Egypt2) Ivory Coast3) NigeriaResultGDPPC868,12276041251,971990746831,78868940NO
2004Tunisia2) Morocco3) NigeriaResultGDPPC868,12276041910,193407139783,07388692NO
2008Egypt2) Cameroon3) GhanaResultGDPPC1456,565676926,4843849723570,36368375YES
2010Egypt2) Ghana3) NigeriaResultGDPPC1550,064093610,1836567963972,54617876YES/NO
2012Zambia2) Ivory Coast3) MaliResultGDPPC798,2602435936,3859404089476,44467831NO
Urban Population Percentage
For the 7 latest tournaments of CAN, we observed that 3 out of 7 times: countries with higher Urban Population Percentage won.
Egypt, whose Urban Population Percentage was lower than its opponents', won 3 times.
For the 7 latest tournaments of CAN, we observed that 4 out of 7 times: countries with more Total Population won.
Egypt, whose Total Population was higher than its opponents', won 3 times.
Home Advantage does not have a positive effect as we expected.
GDP Per Capita does have a positive impact on the chances of winning the CAN, as we expected.
As for Total Population and Urban Population Percentage, the results are erratic. Therefore we cannot reach a conclusion yet.