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Subodh Sharma Dr.nat.tech.; Aquatic Ecology Centre, P.O. Box: 6250, [email protected]. 1
Unit 3 (3 Hrs.) Human Population Resources and Sustainability (1.5 Hrs. )
3.1 The Human population: Dimensions3.1.1 Human population expansion and its cause3.1.2 Dynamics of population growth
Post Graduate Diploma in Environment Education
Subodh Sharma Dr.nat.tech.; Aquatic Ecology Centre, P.O. Box: 6250, [email protected]. 2
Post Graduate Diploma in Environment Education
3.1.1 Human population expansion and its cause
The recent rapid expansion of human population is a unique event.
Population grew slowly for most of human history.
In modern times it has expanded greatly.
(source: Joseph A. McFalls, Jr. 1991 in Wright 2005)
Subodh Sharma Dr.nat.tech.; Aquatic Ecology Centre, P.O. Box: 6250, [email protected]. 3
Post Graduate Diploma in Environment Education
3.1.1 Human population expansion and its cause
World population growth rate and absolute growth (source: Shiro Horiuchi in Wright, 2005)
Declining fertility rates in the last three decades have resulted in a decreasing rate of population growth.
Subodh Sharma Dr.nat.tech.; Aquatic Ecology Centre, P.O. Box: 6250, [email protected]. 4
Post Graduate Diploma in Environment Education
3.1.1 Human population expansion and its cause
Reasons for the Patterns of Growth:Slow Growth: The main reason for the slow and fluctuating population growth prior to the early 1800s was the prevalence of diseases that were fatal, such as small pox, diphtheria, measles and scarlet fever, specially in infants.
In addition, black plague of the 14th century, typhus, and cholera eliminated large numbers of adults.
Famines also took their tool periodically.
Fast Growth: The main reasons for increase in growth rate were breakthrough in scientific discoveries that diseases were caused by infections. During 1960, population growth rate peaked at 2.1% per year.Then it began a steady decline.The decline was due to decline in world fertility rate.
Subodh Sharma Dr.nat.tech.; Aquatic Ecology Centre, P.O. Box: 6250, [email protected]. 5
Post Graduate Diploma in Environment Education
3.1.1 Human population expansion and its cause
United Nations population projections. The most recent population projections demonstrate the vital role played by different fertility assumptions. (source: UNPD, 2002 in Wright, 2005)
Global human population will reach 8.9 billion by 2050 as medium scenario.
Subodh Sharma Dr.nat.tech.; Aquatic Ecology Centre, P.O. Box: 6250, [email protected]. 6
Post Graduate Diploma in Environment Education
3.1.1 Human population expansion and its cause- Different Worlds
The World Bank, divided the countries of the world into three main economic categoriesHigh–income, highly developed, industrialized countries.Middle-income, moderately developed countries.Low-income, developing countries
Highly Developed Moderately Developed Developing countries
964 million 2.7 billion 2.65 billion
United States, Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, the countries of Western Europe, and Scandinavia, Singapore, Taiwan, Israel, and several Arab states
Latin America, northern and southern Africa, China and some smaller eastern Asian countries, eastern Europe, and countries of the former USSR.
Eastern, western and central Africa, India, and other countries of central Asia, and a few former Soviet republics
Subodh Sharma Dr.nat.tech.; Aquatic Ecology Centre, P.O. Box: 6250, [email protected]. 7
Average annual rate of population change (natural increase) in 1994From Miller 1996, page 227)
Subodh Sharma Dr.nat.tech.; Aquatic Ecology Centre, P.O. Box: 6250, [email protected]. 8
Post Graduate Diploma in Environment Education
3.1.1 Human population expansion and its cause- Different Worlds
The high-income nations are commonly referred to as developed countries. They make up just 16% of the world’s population. They control about 81% of the world’s wealth.
The middle and low income countries are grouped together as developing countries. They make up 41% of the world’s population. They control only 3.4% of the world’s gross national income.
The disparity of wealth is difficult to understand just by looking at general income figures.Therefore, the UNDP has devised the Human Poverty Index (HPI).HPI is based on life expectancy, literacy, and living standards.
Subodh Sharma Dr.nat.tech.; Aquatic Ecology Centre, P.O. Box: 6250, [email protected]. 9
Post Graduate Diploma in Environment Education
3.1.1 Human population expansion and its cause- Human Poverty Index
Subodh Sharma Dr.nat.tech.; Aquatic Ecology Centre, P.O. Box: 6250, [email protected]. 10
Post Graduate Diploma in Environment Education
3.1.1 Human population expansion and its cause- Human Poverty Index
Subodh Sharma Dr.nat.tech.; Aquatic Ecology Centre, P.O. Box: 6250, [email protected]. 11
Post Graduate Diploma in Environment Education
3.1.1 Human population expansion and its cause- Factors Affecting
Fertility Rates: Global Trends
Replacement–level fertility, is the number of children a couple must bear to replace themselves.Total fertility rate (TFR), an estimate of the average number of children a woman will have during her childbearing years under current age-specific birth rates. If world’s TFR remains at 3.2, the population would reach 694 billion in 2150, i.e., 124 times the current population.
TFRs for various groupings of countries in 1994.Miller, 1996
Subodh Sharma Dr.nat.tech.; Aquatic Ecology Centre, P.O. Box: 6250, [email protected]. 12
Post Graduate Diploma in Environment Education
3.1.1 Human population expansion and its cause- Factors Affecting
Fertility Rates: Global Trends
Population experts expect TFRs in MDR to remain around 1.8 and those in LDC to 2.3 by 2025.
This will lead to a projected world population of around 9 billion by 2025., with more than 90% of this growth taking place in LDC’s.
A key variable in population projections is the time at which the total fertility rate of the world drops to a replacement level of around 2.1 children per woman (fig.).
Subodh Sharma Dr.nat.tech.; Aquatic Ecology Centre, P.O. Box: 6250, [email protected]. 13
Post Graduate Diploma in Environment Education
3.1.1 Human population expansion and its cause- Factors Affecting
Fertility Rates: in the USAUSA population has grown from 4 million in 1790 to 261 million in 1994.
Subodh Sharma Dr.nat.tech.; Aquatic Ecology Centre, P.O. Box: 6250, [email protected]. 14
Post Graduate Diploma in Environment Education
3.1.1 Human population expansion and its cause- Factors Affecting
Fertility Rates: in the USAUSA population has grown from 4 million in 1790 to 261 million in 1994.
Subodh Sharma Dr.nat.tech.; Aquatic Ecology Centre, P.O. Box: 6250, [email protected]. 15
Post Graduate Diploma in Environment Education
3.1.1 Human population expansion and its cause- Factors Affecting Birth Rates & Fertility Rates
•Average level of education and affluence•Importance of children as a part of the labor force•Urbanization•Cost of raising and educating children•Educational and employment opportunities for women•Infant mortality rate•Average age at marriage•Availability of private and public pension systems•Availability of legal abortions•Religious beliefs•Availability and use of reliable methods of birth control
Subodh Sharma Dr.nat.tech.; Aquatic Ecology Centre, P.O. Box: 6250, [email protected]. 16
Post Graduate Diploma in Environment Education
3.1.2 Dynamics of Population Growth
Population entering
1.Birth
2.Death
3.Migration
Population growor decline
Population change = (births + immigration) – (deaths + emigration)
Population leavingZero population growth (ZPG)
Crude Birth rate : the number of live births per 1000 people in a population in a given year
Subodh Sharma Dr.nat.tech.; Aquatic Ecology Centre, P.O. Box: 6250, [email protected]. 17
Post Graduate Diploma in Environment Education
3.1.2 Dynamics of Population Growth
Factors affecting death rateIndicators of overall health
Subodh Sharma Dr.nat.tech.; Aquatic Ecology Centre, P.O. Box: 6250, [email protected]. 18
Post Graduate Diploma in Environment Education
3.1.2 Dynamics of Population Growth
Population Age Structure for countries with rapid, slow, zero and Negative Growth
Subodh Sharma Dr.nat.tech.; Aquatic Ecology Centre, P.O. Box: 6250, [email protected]. 19
Post Graduate Diploma in Environment Education
3.1.2 Dynamics of Population Growth
Population Age Structure and projected growth in LDC and MDC
Subodh Sharma Dr.nat.tech.; Aquatic Ecology Centre, P.O. Box: 6250, [email protected]. 20
3.2 Population and Development3.2.1 Reassessing the Demographic Transition3.2.2 Millennium Development Goals
Subodh Sharma Dr.nat.tech.; Aquatic Ecology Centre, P.O. Box: 6250, [email protected]. 21
Post Graduate Diploma in Environment Education
3.2.1 Reassessing the Demographic Pattern
Key Question: What do the developing countries need to do to undergo the demographic transition?
School of thoughts:1. need to bring down birth rates.2. concentrate on development.
Population conferences:Bucharest, Romania (1974) and Mexico City (1984)
Debatable Issue
End of Debate:International Conference on Population and Development
Cairo, 1994
Subodh Sharma Dr.nat.tech.; Aquatic Ecology Centre, P.O. Box: 6250, [email protected]. 22
Post Graduate Diploma in Environment Education
3.2.1 Reassessing the Demographic Pattern
Subodh Sharma Dr.nat.tech.; Aquatic Ecology Centre, P.O. Box: 6250, [email protected]. 23
Post Graduate Diploma in Environment Education
3.2.1 Reassessing the Demographic Pattern
Key Question: Large or Small Families?
Why Poor in developing countries have large families?
1. Security in one’s old age.
2. Experience of high infant and childhood mortality.
3. Helping hands.
4. Importance of education as unnecessary.
5. Status of women: opportunities for women’s education and careers is still discouraging.
6. Availability of contraceptives.
Subodh Sharma Dr.nat.tech.; Aquatic Ecology Centre, P.O. Box: 6250, [email protected]. 24
Post Graduate Diploma in Environment Education
3.2.1 Reassessing the Demographic Pattern
Promoting Development• Good and Bad News• Millennium Development Goals(Eight goals, conditions in 1990 are compared with the year 2015 as the date for reaching the targets.
Good news is that many developing countries have made remarkable economic progress.
Bad news is that:
• a fifth of the world’s population (1.2 billion people) lies onless than $1 a day,
• over 1 billion lack access to clean water,• 2.4 billion lack access to sanitary facilities, and• over 800 million are malnourished.
Subodh Sharma Dr.nat.tech.; Aquatic Ecology Centre, P.O. Box: 6250, [email protected]. 25
Post Graduate Diploma in Environment Education
3.3 Towards a Sustainable Future through social modernization
A New Direction : Social Modernization
1. Improving education – especially literacy and the education of girls and women.
2. Improving health – especially lowering infant mortality.
3. Making family planning accessible (that is both available and affordable).
4. Enhancing income through employment opportunities.
5. Improving resource management (reversing environmental degradation).
Subodh Sharma Dr.nat.tech.; Aquatic Ecology Centre, P.O. Box: 6250, [email protected]. 26
Post Graduate Diploma in Environment Education
3.3 Towards a Sustainable Future through social modernization
Putting It All Together Social Development
Subodh Sharma Dr.nat.tech.; Aquatic Ecology Centre, P.O. Box: 6250, [email protected]. 27
Post Graduate Diploma in Environment Education
Concluding remarks
Cairo Conference in Sept 1994
“Program of Action” – to address the world’s persistent problems of poverty and population.Consensus: all nations agreed that population is an issue of crisis proportions that must be confronted forthrightly.
In the words of President of World Bank Lewis Preston: “Putting it bluntly, if we do not deal with rapid population growth, we will not reduce poverty – and development will not be sustainable”
