!Human-Triggered Earthquakes and Their Impacts on Human Security-NATO

8/13/2019 !Human-Triggered Earthquakes and Their Impacts on Human Security-NATO

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COPY: Achieving Environmental Security: Ecosystem Services and Human Welfare.

Human-Triggered Earthquakes and TheirImpacts on Human Security

Christian D. KLOSEa

a Columbia University, New York NY, USA

Abstract. ! comprehensi"e understanding o# earthquake risks in ur$ani%edregions requires an accurate assessment o# $oth ur$an "u&nera$i&ities andearthquake ha%ards. Socioeconomic risks associated 'ith human-triggeredearthquakes are o#ten misconstrued and recei"e &itt&e scienti#ic( &ega&( and pu$&icattention. Ho'e"er( more than )** damaging earthquakes( associated 'ithindustria&i%ation and ur$ani%ation( 'ere documented since the )*th century. Thistype o# geoha%ard has impacts on human security on a regiona& and nationa& &e"e&.+or e,amp&e( the /e'cast&e earthquake caused 0 deaths and 1S20.3 $i&&iondamage 4in 5. The monetary &oss 'as equi"a&ent to 0.6 percent o# !ustra&ia7snationa& income 48DI5 or * percent o# !ustra&ia7s 8DI per capita gro'th o# thesame year. This artic&e pro"ides an o"er"ie' o# g&o$a& statistics o# human-triggered earthquakes. It descri$es ho' geomechanica& po&&ution due to &arge-sca&egeoengineering acti"ities can ad"ance the c&ock o# earthquakes or trigger ne'seismic e"ents. Last&y( de#ense-oriented strategies and tactics are descri$ed(

inc&uding risk mitigation measures such as ur$an p&anning adaptations and seismicha%ard mapping.

ey!ords. Human-triggered( earthquakes( ha%ard( "u&nera$i&ity( risk( humansecurity( mitigation( strategies( tactics( socia& science( C&ause'it%

"ntroduction

E"ery earthquake that ruptures some'here on Earth is triggered $y some stresspertur$ation in the Earth7s crust. Earthquakes occur under natura& conditions 'hentectonic stress states change 4e.g.( at p&ate $oundaries( ri#t systems( or "o&canoes5. +or

e,amp&e( natura& triggering stress pertur$ations can resu&t #rom tectonic de#ormationprocesses o# dri#ting p&ates 4e.g.( oceanic or continenta& against oceanic or continenta&5(de#ormations #rom prior "o&canic eruptions( or #rom sur#ace processes( inc&udingerosion 4e.g.( ri"er transport5 and sedimentation 4e.g.( ri"er de&tas5. The ma9ority o# a&&earthquakes are triggered $y natura& processes and( in particu&ar( a&ong su$duction%ones surrounding the :aci#ic Ocean( 'here oceanic crust s&ides $eneath the continents4e.g.( ;apan( !&aska5. ased on the concept

Correspondence to? C. K&ose( Think 8eoHa%ards( @ose"i&&e C!( 1S!A christianBcdk&ose.com.


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o# a human-nature coupled system6( geoengineering acti"ities 4human system5 a&terstresses in the interior o# the Earth7s crust 4nature system5 that can $ring pree,isting#au&ts to #ai&ure. This phenomenon is ca&&ed geomechanical pollution 6( 3. Suchinduced stress changes( ho'e"er( may desta$i&i%e on&y sha&&o' #au&ts in the upper parto# the crust 4)*km5. Their in#&uence tends to $e sma&& in &o'er parts( distant to the&ocations o# geoengineering acti"ities. O"er the &ast decades( se"era& studies a$outearthquakes triggered $y human geoengineering actions ha"e $een pu$&ished( inc&udingarti#icia& 'ater reser"oir impoundments( deep and open-pit mining( hydrocar$on

production( and #&uid in9ectionsFe,tractions 4see ta$&e 5 G. This paper gi"es a $rie#o"er"ie' o# ho' human acti"ities can trigger earthquakes and ho' human-triggeredearthquakes can a##ect human security . +urthermore( in order to determine humansecurity issues( this chapter out&ines a &ogic approach as to ho' earthquake ha%ards(human "u&nera$i&ities( and resu&ting risks can $e estimated. +ina&&y( "on C&ause'it%7sear&y socia& science approach )( 0 is used to pro"ide risk mitigation and reductionstrategies #or human-triggered earthquakes.

#. Ho! Can Human Activities $rigger Earth%ua&es'

Human-triggered earthquakes are a g&o$a& en"ironmenta& change that increases'or&d'ide and e,ponentia&&y o"er time 4see #igure 5. These earthquakes resu&t #romthe mechanica& response o# the continenta& crust 4i.e.( e&astostatic( poroe&astic5( due to

"ery sma&& induced stress pertur$ations stemming #rom geoengineering acti"ities at thesu$sur#ace. These acti"ities inc&ude 4see #igure )5?

sur#ace and underground mining 4e.g.( $&ack coa&5(

arti#icia& 'ater reser"oirs 4i.e.( impoundment andFor operation stage5(

hydrocar$on production and enhanced reco"ery 4e.g.( crude oi&( natura& gas(steam in9ections5(

'aste 'ater in9ections deep underground 4e.g.( radioacti"e( to,ic( or otherha%ardous &iquids5(

in9ections o# car$on dio,ide deep underground 4to reduce greenhouse gasesinto the atmosphere5(

geotherma& energy production in greater depth 4= *** m5( and

coasta& management 4e.g.( #ormation o# arti#icia& &and5.


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(igure #./um$er o# human-triggered earthquakes "ersus time. The earthquake cata&og is $ased on e"ents'ith moment magnitudes


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&o' human-triggered seismicity rate in acti"e continenta& regions might a&so $e due tothe #act that &ess attention is paid to seismic e"ents in these regions and that mostearthquakes are assumed to $e o# natura& origin. Earthquakes &ike Ca&i#ornia7s


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). Ho! *o Human+$riggered Earth%ua&es Affect Human Security'

!s a#orementioned( the num$er o# human-triggered earthquakes is much sma&&er incomparison to nature-triggered earthquakes. Their socioeconomic impacts( ho'e"er(are disproportiona&&y higher( $ecause human-triggered earthquakes

on&y occur in regions c&ose to the geoengineering acti"ities( i.e.( rura& andur$ani%ed areas(

occur most&y in natura&&y sta$&e continenta& regions( 'ith =* percent o# the'or&d popu&ation(

nuc&eate in "ery sha&&o' depths 4* J )*km5( 'hi&e damaging seismic energycan reach the Earth sur#ace(

can create &asting seismic acti"ities in areas that 'ere initia&&y sta$&e 4e.g.(!ustra&ia( Europe5 )0( G3.

2! "##ects on National Security

The 3 othcountries accused each other to ha"e triggered the earthquakes( due to deep potashmining and sa&t 'ater in9ections( respecti"e&y 6( )G.

The po&itica& tensions $et'een $oth countries &ed to in"estigations o# their secretser"ices. E"idence sho's that the


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induced annua& 'ater &e"e& changes o# more than 0*m. >oth processes $roughtneigh$oring steep oriented #au&ts to #ai&ure and caused the damaging earthquakes inSnna and M&kershausen( inc&uding se"ere mine co&&apses. Since 0( 'hen the

potash mining production ended in this area( more than )** mi&&ion 1S2 4)** "a&ue5'ere in"ested to re#i&& the underground e,ca"ation in order to mitigate the ha%ard &e"eor ne' earthquakes and mining co&&apses.


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$a$&e . Se&ection o# human-triggered earthquakes 'ith signi#icant e##ects on human security.ureau o# Statistics5. +urthermore( the #inancia& &oss 'as equi"a&entto G* percent o# the !ustra&ian 8DI gro'th and * percent o# the 8DI per capitagro'th $et'een and . It a&so accounted #or 0 percent o# the tota& costs o# a&&natura& disasters and 6 percent o# the costs o# a&& earthquakes recorded in !ustra&ia#rom G to 6. This resu&t suggests that mining-triggered earthquakes can ha"e


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serious impacts not on&y on the region c&osest to the geoengineering acti"ity $ut a&so ona nation7s income.

21 "##ects on uman ealth

It has $een reported 6 that ma9or earthquakes and &ong-&asting micro-earthquakesU'hether nature or human triggeredUdo ha"e negati"e psycho&ogica& e##ects on the

popu&ation. The 3livetti eart Study 6( #or e,amp&e( reported on &ong-termpsycho&ogica& e##ects caused $y earthquake tremors that occurred near :o%%uo&&i 4/ap&es5in Ita&y $et'een 0 and 6. This se"en-year &ongitudina& scienti#ic study( starting in* a#ter the


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(igure ,. @e&ationship $et'een the 'ater &e"e& change o# the Vipingpu 'ater reser"oir and the seismicity4


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There are t'o ad"antages o# de#ining risks &ogica&&y. +irst( humans tend to ha"e norecords on impacts o# e,treme e"ents 4&o'-pro$a$i&ity5 such as earthquakes. Thus( the

#requency4or occurrence time is associated 'ith a high uncertainty 4. >ut( humansha"e an understanding 4#ee&ing5 on possi$&e ha%ard intensities 5 and impacts orscenarios. Hence( a &ogic approach is more intuiti"e and use#u& unti& more data areo$ser"ed and empirica&&y acquired. Second( the approach 6 X & o# simp&ymu&tip&yingand &( as suggested $y the 1nited /ations( 3G is a &egitimate 'ay( $utthe a&ge$raic product is under-estimating risks #or non-e,treme ha%ard or "u&nera$i&ity"a&ues. +or e,amp&e( a monitored re&ati"e ha%ard &e"e& is mediumP *.3 and there&ati"e "u&nera$i&ity is a&so mediumP & *.6. The resu&ting risk 'ou&d $e mediumP

as 'e&& 'ith *.3min*.6 *.6( #o&&o'ing the &ogic approach. In contrast( theapproach suggested $y the 1/ 'ou&d resu&t in a much &o'er risk &e"e& o# *.3X*.6 *.)3. This &eads to an underestimation o# the e,pected risk and an o"erestimation o# thee,pected human security.

8enera&&y( the risk and security uncertainties associated 'ith human-triggeredearthquakes are certain&y high. >ut( they are much sma&&er in comparison touncertainties associated 'ith nature-triggered earthquakes( $ecause &ocation and

productionFoperationFconstruction p&ans are accurate&y and precise&y kno'n. Thus(triggering stress pertur$ations at potentia& earthquake nuc&eation points can $e mode&edin space and time( 'hi&e e,isting popu&ation densities and economic assets are a&sokno'n.

8aussian error propagation sho's that risk uncertainty and security uncertainty

Sare sma&&er 'hen app&ying a &ogic approach

405

in comparison to the traditiona& approach

465

Equations 0 and 6 sho' that the traditiona& approach o# determining geoha%ardrisks resu&ts in higher uncertainties than a &ogic approach 'ith imp&ications #or #urtherrisk mitigation strategies or tactics. Thus( a risk-a"erse or risk-acceptant decision maker'ou&d decide #or a &ogic approach o# ca&cu&ating e,pected risk and security &e"e&s.

+ina&&y( the &argest uncertainty o# the resu&ting riskFsecurity resu&ts main&y #ormsthe natura& system( inc&uding the geo&ogica& situation and the kno'&edge a$out historicearthquakes( i.e.( pa&eo-seismicity. :o&icy too&s cou&d $e imp&emented( #or e,amp&e( i#regions o# potentia& earthquake nuc&eation points can $e identi#ied. Scienti#ic e##ortscou&d concentrate in those regions to e"a&uate the natura& system 4source o# geoha%ard5more precise&y 4see #igure 65. In case o# the Snna and M&kershausen earthquakes(

po&icy too&s 'ere imp&emented in the ear&y *s to mitigate the ha%ard &e"e& #or ne'earthquakes and mining co&&apses. Since 0 more than )** mi&&ion 1S2 4)** "a&ue5'ere in"ested to re#i&& the underground e,ca"ations.


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2. 0is& 3itigation and 0eduction Strategies

E,pected risks associated 'ith human-triggered earthquakes depend on $oth the ha%ard4o# the potentia&&y threatening phenomenon5 and the "u&nera$i&ity 4see eq. 5. T'otypes o# strategies e,ist 'ith se"era& tactica& measures to mitigate e,pected risks andimpro"e human security. ! strategy is a de#ined 'ay that has to $e taken to reach arequired goa& o# minimi%ing risk 4ma,imi%ing human security5 0. Tactics can $eunderstood as those measures that #o&&o' such a de#ined 'ay. Car& "on C&ause'it%#ormu&ated a theory-&a'-$a&ancedP #rame'ork( 'hich is compara$&e to today7sconcepts o# socia& science ). +urthermore( "on C&ause'it% argues that theories aremore appropriate to de"e&op strategies( 'hereas &a's are app&ica$&e #or tactica&4operationa&5 measures. >ased on "on C&ause'it%7s #rame'ork( risk mitigationstrategies and tactics inc&ude( #or e,amp&e?

mitigateFreduce potentia& ha%ards

understand geo&ogica& and tectonic conditions that support p&annedgeoengineering acti"ities 4e.g.( stress pertur$ations5(

per#orm geomechanica& &ong-term mode&s(

conduct geophysica& monitoring 4e.g.( 35

generate ha%ard maps 4see #igure 65(

change the operationFproduction techno&ogy according&y(

mitigateFreduce e,istingF#uture "u&nera$i&ities

create e##ecti"e and e##icient emergency response p&ans and institutions(

shi#t geoengineering acti"ities a'ay #rom ur$an areas(

shi#t ur$an areas a'ay #rom geoengineering acti"ities(

rein#orce $ui&ding structures(

change $ui&ding codes(

change ur$an p&anning.

Tactica& measures to mitigating ha%ard &e"e&s 4i.e.( threat5 #o&&o' an o##ensivestrategyP to reducing the se"erity o# the threatening seismic e"ent. On the other hand(measures that mitigate "u&nera$i&ities #o&&o' a de#ense strategy(P 'hi&e responding toand pre"enting the threat. In addition( many o# "on C&ause'it%7s proposedstrategiesFtactics are de#ense oriented. E"en more( he argues that de#ense is a stronger#orm o# 'ar( $ecause the time that passes unti& a threat occurs accumu&ates to the credito# the de#ender? $eati sunt possidentesP 4#ortunate are those in possession5 0. Thea"ai&a$&e time unti& an earthquake occurs can $e used to imp&ement po&icy too&s toincreasing "u&nera$i&ities and( thus( impro"ing the o"era&& human security 4e.g.( torein#orce $ui&ding structures5. 8eoha%ard reduction measures( on the other hand( can $eapp&ied on&y to human-triggered threatening e"ents. Impacts o# nature-triggeredgeoha%ards 4e.g.( "o&canic eruptions( tsunamis5( a&&o' on&y "u&nera$i&ity reductionmeasures to ensure human security.

4. (uture Ha-ard Hots5ots

The acce&erating g&o$a& c&imate change and an increasing g&o$a& energy demand 'ith

e,pected supp&y shortages #orce economies and societies to #ind a&ternati"e energy


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sources. On top o# this they try to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions( 'hich arethought to increase g&o$a& 'arming. This( in turn( has $een stimu&ating entrepreneurssince the $eginning o# the )st century to #ind ne' so&utions and options a5 to

producing &arger amounts o# geotherma& energy #rom deep underground and $5 tosequestering car$on dio,ide 4CO)5 deep underground to achie"e a reduction o#atmospheric emissions. >esides e,isting geoengineering practices 4e.g.( arti#icia& 'aterreser"oir impoundments or deep mining5( it can $e anticipated that ne' earthquakeha%ards increase in the "icinity o# geotherma& po'er p&ants and car$on capture andsequestration 4CCS5 sites.

:! *eothermal "nergy ;roduction

8eotherma& energy production is proposed as an a&ternati"e energy source( due to anincreasing g&o$a& energy demand and e,pected shortages( in particu&ar( o# hydrocar$onenergy supp&ies throughout the )st century. >oth the e,traction o# hot 'ater in deep

$oreho&es and the rein9ection o# co&d 'ater in distant $oreho&es can generate ageotherma& energy production cyc&e unti& the hot rocks deep underground 4)-Gkm5 coo&do'n and the therma& energy source ceases. The production cyc&e( ho'e"er( can $e

pertur$ed 'hen too much #&uid is e,tracted 4see #igure 35 or in9ected G3. Largeamounts o# 'ater masses can $e remo"ed or accumu&ated during the &i#espan o# a deepgeotherma& po'er p&ant. These 'ater mass im$a&ances( again( a&ter the stress states o#the Earth7s crust and can set o## earthquakes. Se"era& e,amp&es ha"e $een reported(

inc&uding( #or e,amp&e( the ase& earthquake in S'it%er&and in )**G 4see ta$&e 5(the


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(igure 2. Ha%ard map o# potentia& coa& miningQtriggered earthquakes in an area o# the /e'cast&e coaie&d in/e' South a&es 4!ustra&ia5. The squares sho' the &ocations o# underground coa&mines in appro,. 3**mdepth. The resu&ting stress changes in the Earth7s crust are qua&itati"e&y indicated $y the &a$e&s Lo'Ha%ard(P


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earthquakes 4


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and natura& gas reser"oirs G*( in coa& $eds #or methane production G( in sa&ineaqui#ers G)( or in rocks that enhance minera&i%ation o# CO ) G0. /one o# theseoptions ensures an immediate trapping o# the &iquid CO). The in9ected $u$$&e migratesthrough pores( #ractures( and #au&ts G6 and migrates to'ard the sur#ace due to its

$uoyancy. Thus( regions near in9ection sites are prone to a higher earthquake ha%ard.O##shore car$on capture and sequestration 4CCS5 acti"ities can set o## earthquakes.Such tremors can trigger su$marine &ands&ides( 'hich( in turn( may cause tsunamis that

put coasta& regions at mu&ti-ha%ard risks.

(igure 6. 8eo&ogica& and seismo&ogica& situation near the Sa&ton Sea geotherma& po'er p&ant in southernCa&i#ornia 41S!5. The 'hite $o, indicates the samp&ing area o# earthquakes 'ith moment magnitudes


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more 'i&&ing to recogni%e potentia& gains and un'i&&ing to recogni%e potentia& &osses.Thus( true risk reduction strategies that address ha%ard pre"ention and "u&nera$i&itymitigation need more scienti#ic( &ega&( and pu$&ic attention( inc&uding ur$an p&anningadaptation and ha%ard-mapping.

ine =ater and the

"nvironment )64)**5( )-*.3 L. See$er( ./.:. !gar'a&( ;.8. :ada&e( and S.C. .K. @astogi( @.K. Chadha( :.


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.


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63 S. Steacy( ;. 8om$erg( and &and( E.S. O7Leary( E. +arinaro( +. ;asso( and orm( Spatia& predictions o# geo&ogica& rock mass properties$ased on in-situ interpretations o# mu&ti-dimensiona& seismic data( "ngineering *eology 9,4)**5( -G.

3 L.!. Vadeh( +u%%y sets as a $asis #or a theory o# possi$i&ity.4u00y Sets and Systems # 45( 0-).

3 K. :ruess( /umerica& studies o# #&uid &eakage #rom a geo&ogic disposa& reser"oir #or CO)sho' se-&imiting #eed$ack $et'een #&uid #&o' and heat trans#er( *eophysical esearch ?etters ,) 4)**35(L66*6.

G* K. ;essen( !.@. Ko"scek( and +.anagement264)**35( )0-0.

G ;. 8a&e and :. +reund( Coa&-$ed methane enhancement 'ith CO)sequestration 'or&d'ide potentia&(

"nvironmental *eosciences4)**5( )*-).

G) ;.

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!Human-Triggered Earthquakes and Their Impacts on Human Security-NATO