Hypoxia Management tools: Hypoxia Management tools: indicators & modelsindicators & models

Bob WoodJohn JacobsHeath KelseyXinsheng Zhang

Cooperative Oxford Lab

www.ecocheck.org

This workshop…what I This workshop…what I learnedlearned

• Hypoxia is a growing problemHypoxia is a growing problem

• There are negative resource impacts There are negative resource impacts associated with hypoxiaassociated with hypoxia

• Predictive models are the ultimate Predictive models are the ultimate targettarget

• Our knowledge is still incomplete… Our knowledge is still incomplete…

Intersecting objectivesIntersecting objectives

• NOAA’s place-based Integrated NOAA’s place-based Integrated assessment approachassessment approach– Chesapeake Bay chosen as a ‘proof-of-Chesapeake Bay chosen as a ‘proof-of-

concept’ concept’ for Integrated Ecosystem for Integrated Ecosystem Assessments (IEA)Assessments (IEA)

• Support commitments to Ecosystem-based Support commitments to Ecosystem-based fisheries management (NOAA; CBP; MD)fisheries management (NOAA; CBP; MD)

• Deliver more with less (“actual actions”)Deliver more with less (“actual actions”)

Ecosystem-based managementEcosystem-based management

• Support philosophical change in Support philosophical change in management approachmanagement approach– Institutional boundaries must be overcomeInstitutional boundaries must be overcome– Constituents must be informedConstituents must be informed

Link indicators to research, & modelingLink indicators to research, & modeling

National Marine Fisheries Service

MD coastal bays “report card”MD coastal bays “report card”

www.ian.umces.edu

Management tools:Management tools:indicators (spatial), models, synthesisindicators (spatial), models, synthesis

Pathogens & the Coastal Bay

Ecosystem Health‘report card’

Linking Report card values to goods & services

Dissolved Oxygen / Eutrophication gradient

Mar

ine

/ Fre

shw

ater

gra

dien

tEutrophication/hypoxia in MD Coastal Bays

temp

pH

Sal

DO

Deep

Turb

Chlor

SusSolids

TN

PO4

TP

Silica

temp

pH

Sal

DO

Deep

Turb

Chlor

SusSolids

TN

PO4

TP

Silica

Individual water quality samples

Jacobs, Wood, et al.

Dissolved Oxygen-Eutrophication gradiant

Ma

rin

e-F

resh

wa

ter

gra

dia

nt

-4 -2 0 2 4 6

-4-2

02

4

temp

pH

Sal

DO

Deep

Turb

Chlor

SusSol

TN

PO4

TP

Silica

Water Quality PCA biplot vs Myco(circle radii = Myco ct)

.

DO ------------------------------------- eutrophication

Dissolved Oxygen-Eutrophication gradiant

Ma

rin

e-F

resh

wa

ter

gra

dia

nt

-4 -2 0 2 4 6

-4-2

02

4

temp

pH

Sal

DO

Deep

Turb

Chlor

SusSol

TN

PO4

TP

Silica

Biplot VibP vs. Hydrographic PCA(circle radii = VibP ct)

DO ------------------------------------- eutrophication

bottom dissolved oxygen (ppt)

Vib

rio

p.

con

cen

tra

tion

in w

ate

rs (

log

10

)

5 6 7 8 9 10

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

DO vs. log10(Vibrio P.): r^2 = 0.28 ; p= 1e-012DO versus Vibrio p. abundance

r2 = 0.28 p<0.0001

Bay Habitat Health ‘report card’Bay Habitat Health ‘report card’anchor to ecosystem goods & service outcomes

Chesapeake Watersheds Chl-aChl-a DODO

ClaritClarityy WQIWQI P-IBIP-IBI B-IBIB-IBI SAVSAV BIBI

BHHBHHII

Patapsco 0 0 0 0 10 63 2 36 18.1

Patuxent 13 49 5 22 8 24 18 17 19.4

Mid Bay 13 25 18 19 30 23 9 21 19.8

Choptank 5 78 0 28 12 31 30 24 26.0

Potomac 38 47 7 31 25 20 39 28 29.5

York 36 51 4 30 57 16 35 36 33.3

Rappahannock 19 87 8 38 38 48 3 29 33.7

N Bay 39 66 6 37 41 56 52 50 43.2

James 45 100 2 49 54 35 24 38 43.4

S Bay 4 88 5 33 51 56 57 55 43.6

Tangier Sound 13 100 8 40 no data 76 25 50 45.2Coming soon to… www.ecocheck.org

Moving into Chesapeake

Bay

Built upon the Bay Built upon the Bay Program (in MD) Program (in MD) WQ monitoring WQ monitoring

surveysurveyAlso being mapped:•Mycobacterium sp. •V.parahaemolyticus•Hematodinium

Linking watershed land use patterns to

ecological stress

Anacostia

Annemessex

BackCreek

Elizabeth

Manokin

NortheastPatapsco

PiscatawayPocomoke

Chester

ChoptankWicomicoBack

Bay

CorsicaCorsica

RhodeRhode

Anacostia

Annemessex

BackCreek

Elizabeth

MagothyMagothy

Manokin

NortheastPatapsco

PiscatawayPocomoke

St Marys

Chester

ChoptankWicomicoBack

%Urban

%Forest

%Agriculture

%Wetland

Sassafras

Honga

Little Choptank

Monie

Severn

Mattawoman

Sassafrass

UpperChoptank

Pocomoke

UpperChester

Annemessex

Manokin

BackCreek

Northeast

Wicomico

Mattawoman

StMarys

Piscataway

Severn

Patapsco

Magothy

Elizabeth

Anacostia

0 5 10 15

DO

Urb

an%

ra

nki

ng

Urban% watershed vs. DO (bottom)

DO

Urb

an

Lan

d U

se R

anki

ng

%Urban Land Use & dissolved oxygen

Magothy

Anacostia

Mattawoman

Severn

Elizabeth

Piscataway

StMarys

Annemessex

Manokin

Patapsco

Pocomoke

Wicomico

Northeast

UpperChoptank

UpperChester

BackCreek

Sassafrass

0 2 4 6

TDN

Ag

% r

an

kin

gAg% watershed vs. Total N (surface)

Agri

cult

ura

l La

nd U

se R

anki

ng

TDN

%Agricultural Land Use & total dissolved nitrogen

A simple model: Bay Anchovy A simple model: Bay Anchovy modelmodel DO Scale Function of bay anchovy consumption

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

DO (mg/L)

DO

sca

le f

un

ctio

n (

frD

OX

)

Temperature Scale Function of bay anchovy comsumption & respiration

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

-10 0 10 20 30 40 50

Temperature

Tem

pera

ture

scale

fu

ncti

on

s

fcTemp

frTemp

Zooplankton Scale Function of bay anchovy consumption

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Zooplankton Biomass (g DW/m3)

Zo

op

lan

kto

n s

cale

fu

nct

ion

(fr

ZP

)

Dissolved Oxygen

Temperature

Prey

Response functions from literature:e.g., Brandt et al. 1992; Luo & Brandt 1993

Ch

esa

peake

Bay P

rog

ram

mon

itori

ng

data

Bay anchovy Habitat Bay anchovy Habitat SuitabilitySuitability

(growth rate potential)(growth rate potential)

Zhang, Bahner, Wood, Houde, Annis, Harding

Model PerformanceModel Performance

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

GR

P (

g/g

/d)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

MD

DN

R R

ecru

itm

ent

Ind

ex

Jun - Sep Mean GRP

Recruitment Index

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

GR

P (

g/g

/d)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

MD

DN

R R

ecru

itm

ent

Ind

ex

Jun - Sep Mean GRP

Recruitment IndexVIMS VA Bay CPUE

(MD DNR seine)

Consider punctuating research & Consider punctuating research & model development with value model development with value added productsadded products

Outreach:Outreach:• Agency Agency

managersmanagers• Decision makersDecision makers• ConstituentsConstituents

AcknowlegementsAcknowlegements

Many colleagues from partner Many colleagues from partner institutions including …institutions including …

Center of Marine Biotechnology Center of Marine Biotechnology (U.MD)(U.MD)

UMCES – HPL; CBL; IANUMCES – HPL; CBL; IAN

Chesapeake Bay ProgramChesapeake Bay Program

SERCSERC

And othersAnd others