Iannaccone - JW Growth1

8/13/2019 Iannaccone - JW Growth1

1/25

Journal ofContemporary Religion, Vol. 12, No. 2, 1997 133

Why the Jehovahs Witnesses Grow so Rapidly: A

Theoretical Application

RODNEY STARK & LAURENCE R . IANNACCONE

ABSTRACT This paperapplies a general theory of whyreligious movements succeed or

fail to explain why the Jehovahs Witnesses are the most rapidly growing religiousmovement in the western world. In addition to qualitative assessments of Witnessdoctrines, organisational structures, internal networks, and socialisation, we utilisequantitative datafrom a variety ofsourcesto assess such thingsa s the impactoffailed

pro phe sies, how strictness eliminates free-riders and strengthens congregations, the

demographic make-up of the Witness laborforce, and the effects of continuity withlocal religious cultures on success.

Introduction

Duringthepast7 5 years theJehovahs Witnesses have sustained an extraordi-nary rate ofgrowthcurrently more than 5% per yearand have done so on aglobalscale. In 1995, there were at leasta million very active Witnesses in the

United States and about 4 million inthe other 231 nations in which they conduct

missions.Indicative oftheimmenseeffort involvedin this achievementis the fact that

almost every readerofthis essay will havebeen visited by Jehovahs Witnessesduring thepast severalyears. However, iftheWitnesses frequently appear on

our doorsteps, they are conspicuously absent from our journals. For example,during its 34-year history, the Journal for the Scientific Study ofReligion haspublished articlesdevotedto an amazingarrayof obscure religious movements,butnone hasbeen devoted to the JehovahsWitnesses. When theworld did notendin 1975, as manyWitnesses expected it to, thisdidprompt Social Compass(1977, No. 1) to devote an issue to the Witnesses and failed prophesies.However, apart from these and severalsimilar articles, especially an essay by

Richard Singelenberg(1989),social scientists have producedonly twosubstantialstudies of theWitnesses during thepast 50 years. One of these is an unpub-lished dissertation basedon severallocal congregationsin Minnesota (Zellner,1981) . Theother is JamesA. Beckfords (1975) fine monograph basedon hisfieldworkamong several British Witnesscongregations. We shall drawupon Beck-

fords work often inthisessay, butthefactremains that it is now more than 20years old and no monograph, regardless of merit, can stand as an adequate

researchliterature on one ofthe mostsignificant religious movements ofmodem

times. The lack of researchon the Witnesses is matched by their almost completeomission from textbooks on the sociology of religion, as well as from those

devoted to American religious history.


2/25

134 R. Stark & L. R. Iannaccone

This essay will only beginto make up for the social scientific neglect oftheWitnesses, for it is not primarily even a case study. Instead, we focus ourattentionon a single question about this group: what accounts for its amazinggrowth? To begin, we offer a very briefsummary of thehistory and doctrinalinnovations of the movement, paying attention to the unusual levels of per-secution they havefaced nearly everywhere.Thenwe will examine the detailsofWitnesses growth, noting that in recent decades, despite their continuingrapid growthin theUnited States, theirgrowth rates have been substantiallyfaster in Europe, Latin America, and in parts ofAfrica and Asia.

Against this background we apply a theoretical model of why religiousmovements succeed to see how well it explains Witness growth. We willexamine whether(and towhatextent) the Witnesses satisfy each element ofthetheory. Since an entire article devoted to explaining the theoretical modelappeared in thisjournalvery recently (Stark, 1996b), we shallnot offerextendeddiscussionofthe propositions. In addition toillustrativeandqualitative materi-als, we will test major propositions using quantitative data from a variety of

sources, including the 1991 Canadian Census (Statistics Canada, 1993), themergedU S GeneralSocial Survey (1972 1994), the American NationalSurvey ofReligious Identification (Kosmin, 1991) , a data set based on the nations ofSub-Saharan Africa, and especially statistics published annually by the Wit-nesses (we shall first demonstrate their reliability). We also draw upon informalinterviews withactive witnessesand field observations madeover a numberofyears. In conclusion, we examine alternative projectionsoffuture growth.

A BriefHistory

All scholarly accounts ofthe Jehovahs Witnesses trace themovementback to

Charles Taze Russell (18521916) and often through himback to the famousadventist, William Miller (1782 1849). Of course, Russell never actually met aJehovahs Witness, since his organisationwas called theWatch Tower Bibleand Tract Society, and his followers went by the name of Bible Students.Moreover, Russells controversial doctrines, unfulfilled chronologies for theSecond Coming,loose organisational style,and failure toappoint a successor ledto numerous Bible Student schisms throughout his lifetime and immediatelyfollowing his death in 1916. Thus, Melton (1989) correctly identifies Russell asthe founder of an entire family of denominations, of which the JehovahsWitnesses areby far thelargest. In the power struggle that followed Russellsdeath, Judge J . F . Rutherford quickly tookcontroloftheWatchTower Society

through legal maneuvers that includedtheouster ofdissidentboard directors.The subsequentchanges in organisation, policy and doctrine were so drastic,

and thenumber of defectors so large that many scholars nowconsider the

Jehovahs Witnesses to be an offshoot oftheoriginal movement whichRussellstarted (Bergman, 1984: xvii; see also Melton, 1989: 530). There are, to this day,manysmallBible Student groups that remain more faithful to Russells originalteachings.

Rutherfords rise to power was aidedby government persecutionat the endof World War I. The Bible Students were conscientiousobjectors who refusedmilitary service and they widely circulated literature urging others to dolikewise. This was regarded as sedition by various Canadian and American


3/25

The Growth ofJe ho va hs Witnesses 135

officials. Thus,on March 1, 1918, the CanadianSecretary ofState issued a decreemakingit a crime punishableby a fine up to$5000 and up to 5 years inprisonfor being in possession of Bible Student literature. Then, on May 7, 1918, theUnited States District Court issued warrants for thearrest of Rutherford andseven of his aides forconspiring topromote draft evasionduring a time ofwar.

A month later they were sentenced to 20 years inprisonon each offourcounts.These convictions promptedviolent mob actions in manyAmerican communi-ties against many local Bible Students. A year later the convictions wereoverruledand subsequently dropped. However, the episode madeRutherford amartyr,and greatly increased his prestigewiththerankandfile.As we shall see,martyrdom soon became acommon badgeofhonor, as the movement hasbeenhounded by hostile governments in many corners oftheglobe.

Throughout the 1920s, Rutherford consolidatedhis controlofthemovementandmanagedto translate hispowerinto an efficient organisation able tosustaineffective recruitment efforts. In 1931, at the convention of Bible Students inColumbus, Ohio, a resolution was passedadopting the name Jehovahs Wit-

nesses.From the start, the Witnesses have been literal and dedicated Adventists.

Under Rutherford they proselytised to the slogan Millions now living willnever die to awaken the world to the rapid approach of theend of time.Moreover, date-setting has been a frequent aspect of Witness theology andpractice. Russell hadset 1914 as the dateofArmageddon. When World War Ibroke out that year, Bible Students rejoiced. When the end did not come, Russellpostponed Armageddon to 1918, but diedbefore that datearrived. Rutherfordcontinued date-setting, initially committing to 1920, then 1925 and finally to1940. Following Rutherfords death on January 8, 1942, the Witnesses ceasedspecific date-setting. However, during the late 1960s the belief that the endwould come in 1975 began to circulate and soon gained wide-spreadacceptance(although it was never madetheofficialview). As we shallsee, the failure ofthatdatecaused considerabledamage tothe Witness mission,butthedamage is longsincehealed becausethe majority ofcurrent members were either very youngat

the time or had not yetjoined.Althoughthe Witnessescontinueto proclaimtheimminent return of Christ and remain committed to a modified version ofRussells Bible-based chronology ofthe endtimes, the Watch Tower leadershipnowseems determined to avoid settingany newdates. Indeed, the November

1995 issue oftheWatchtower reinterpretsa longstanding teaching concerning theworldslast generationso as to effectively remove any limit on thenumber ofyears that might elapse before the Second Coming.

If, on theone hand, the Witnesseshavealways proclaimed(and often dated)the worlds end, they were fromthe starteven more notoriousfor whatthey didno t believe. Russell emphatically denied many orthodox Christian doctrinesincluding the Trinity, eternaltorment and the immortalityofthe soul.Based onhis reading oftheBible andhis rejection ofpost-biblical theologicalstatements,suchas theNiceancreed, Russell argued that thereis but one God, the FatherJehovah.T he Holy Spirit isnot a separate person,but ratherGods energis-ing spiritor force. Jesus isnot himself God,butratherGods only begottenSon,thedivine Wordthrough whom therest ofthe worldwas created. According toRussell, thedead do not now inhabit heavenor hell,but rathersleep until the

resurrection which will usher in Gods millennial Kingdom. Those who reject


4/25

136 R. Stark & L . R . Iannaccone

Gods grace and remain incorrigibly wicked even after this period will beconsigned to a second death of total annihilation, but not an eternity oftorment.

The day-to-day practices of Witnesses are no less distinctive than their beliefs,and mostly these, too, date back to Russell. To remain a Witness in good

standing one must be a publisher ofGods word,which, generally speaking,means attending severalhours of meetingseach weekand devoting another4hours or so to distributing Witness literature door-to-door every week. Wit-nesses are expected to maintain strict rules of sexual conduct and to avoidsmoking, drugs and blood transfusions. They celebrate neither birthdays, norChristmas, nor any other holidays.College education is discouraged. Theymustnot vote,holdpoliticaloffice, salute the flag or serve in the military;norare theypermitted to have any contact with former Witnesses. Above all, they are toremain faithfulto theauthorityof the Watch Tower Society (which, except at itshighest levels, is a layorganisation that employs no clergy, and relies entirelyupon volunteer labor and leadership). Those who fail to comply with these

requirements can be disfellowshipped, but more typically they defect of theirownaccord.

The Witnesses door-to-door activities and staunch refusal to salute anynationsflag or serve in itsmilitaryhave been a constantsourceofconflict andpersecution. Since the prosecution of Rutherford and his associates duringWorld War I, the American courts have heard innumerable cases involvingtheWitnesses. Between 1938 and 1955 the Witnesses were involved in 45 casesbefore the UnitedStates Supreme Court,andhave been forced intocourtbattlesrepeatedly since then (Penton, 1985) . During World War II, Witnesses wereprosecuted for their refusal to serve in the armed forces. In theUnited Statesthousands of male Witnesses spent World War II in federal prisons, andit is amatter of publicrecord that Americanjudges gave them longer sentences thanthey did to conscientious objectors of other religions (Conway, 1968) . Similarprosecution of Witnesses took place in Canada and Australia (Kaplan, 1989).Surprisingly, hundreds of male Witnesses were sentto prison inneutralSwedenfor refusing to serve. Since Swedish law provided for only relatively shortsentences, thegovernment drafted the Witnesses again and again, and resen-tenced them eachtime. Prosecutionof Witnesses for draft evasion continuedinSweden longafter the end ofthe war. Finally, in1964, theSwedish Governmentexempted theWitnesses from military service, but notby recognising them aspacifists. Instead, the Swedish government declared them unfit for service

according to the same rules as are applied to certain alcoholics or asocialindividuals (Yearbook, 1991:161 166) .Things were, ofcourse, much worse in Nazi Germany where a number of

Witnesses were executed for theirpacifism. Oftheothers, a few were confinedto mentalhospitals, while thousands were sent to concentration camps,suchasDachau, where manydied (Conway, 1968) .

Even today, the Witnesses continue to face restrictions and governmentopposition in manynationsas of1995 theWitnesses reported that they werebanned outright (but carrying on underground) in 26 nations. These no longerinclude theformer Soviet Union and easternEurope. However, theWitnessesremain illegal throughout most of the Islamic worldwe shall return to this

topic. EvenwheretheWitnesseshave gained theright to exist, they continue to


5/25


6/25


7/25


Tablel. Jehovahs Witness Growth, World-Wide: 19 28 1995

Year

Averagenumber

ofpublishers

Percentage

increase

1928 44,080

1935 56,153 28%1940 96,418 72%

1945 127,478 32%1950 328,572 158%1955 570,694 74%1960 851,378 49 %1965 1,034,268 22 %1970 1,384,782 34%1975 2,062,449 49%

Failed prophecy

1980 2,175,403 5%

1985 2,865,183 33%1990 3,846,311 34%

1995 4,950,344 29%

Throughout, membership is limited to those qualified as

publishers, which omits mostpeople under age 17 and all whofail

to engage in a substantial amount of missionaryactivity each

month (see text).

and survey-basedstatistics mesh perfectly once we take account oftheirdiffer-ent definitions ofmembership. Accordingto theGeneral Social Surveys, only62 % of self-identified Jehovahs Witnesses attend church once a week or moreoften. Applying this percentage to Kosmins estimate of the total number ofself-identified Witnesses in the United States,we obtain anactive membership of

856,220, which is very close to the Watch Tower Societys official count of816,000 publishers.

Given these reasons to trust thenumbers, what do they show?

Patterns of Growth

Table 1 shows that by 1928, Rutherford had recruited more than 40,000 Wit-nesses, although they werent yet using that name. The Witnesses grew slowlyduring the first half of theDepression, having more than56,000 members by1935. Growth speededup during thelatterhalf ofthe Depressionand by 1940

there were nearly 100,000 Witnesses. In the aftermath of World War II, theWitnesses experiencedexplosive growth, interrupted only briefly in themiddle1970s by a failed prophecy concerningthe SecondComing, which we discuss ina later section. By 1995, there were 4,950,344 publishers world-wide and thisnumber hasbeen growing by more than 5 % per year.

Againone mustrecognisethat thesenumbers count onlythe active publishers,memberswhose levels ofcommitment and participationfar exceed those ofthetypical Christian adherent.To meaningfully compare thenumber of Witnesses tothemembership of some other denomination,we must either shrinkthelattergroups membership statistics so as to eliminate inactive membersor we mustmagnifythe Witness numbers to include their nominal members. We must also

take account of the fact that most denominations count their children as


8/25


9/25


Table3. Growth inthe nationsof theformer

Soviet Union: 1990-1995

Average number

ofpublishers

Percentage

increase

1990 39,306

1991 45,887 16.7%1992 58,823 28.2%1993 78,186 32.9%1994 103,093 31.9%1995 137,764 33.6%

almostall ofthese couldbe divided into 2 or 3 congregations ifmoreelderswere available. The Yearbook noted that in Murmansk, a congregationhaving800 publishers cannot be divided because there is only one elder. This isbecause no one else hasbeen a memberfor more than a yearand the Witnessesare reluctant to place leadership responsibilities on someone with so littleexperience.

However, despite their recent breakthrough in the former Communist blocnations,theWitnesses are not everywhere.Only a fewbravepioneers are to befound in theIslamic world. Thus, there are only 37 Witnesses in Bangladesh(compared with 13,686 in India) and344 in Pakistan. In 1992 therewere 58 inAlgeria, 34 in Morocco, 3 1 in Tunisia and eight in Libya. Since then theWitnesseshave stoppedreporting membership for thesenationsa tactic theyadopt whenever persecutionbecomes too great (presumably they do this inorder notto inform local officials how many areyet tobe discovered). When theShah ruled Iran, theWitnesses maintained a mission, but they never reportedmore than 35 publishers. Whenthe Shah was overthrown, the Witnesses were

expelled. Elsewhere intheIslamic world, theWitnesses haveneverreported anymembersin Algeria,Afghanistan, Yemen, Oman, Egypt, Jordan,Syria, Iran, Iraq,

Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Morocco or theSudan. Keep in mind that it is against thelaw to seek convertsfrom Islaminthese countries. Of course,it wasillegal until

quite recently for the Witnesses to function in Spain and Italy, and they wereprohibited inmuch of eastern Europe until the last several years. Nevertheless,they functioned effectively asa secret underground, astheirsubstantial current

membership in many of these nations reveals. Consequently, it is certain that

therearesecret Witnesscells functioning in each of these Muslim nations today.However, the first proposition in the theory of why religious movements

succeed suggests that these cellswill have little success and that even if itoneday becomeslegal for theWitnesses to proselytise inthese nations, they will not

achieve much growth here. The sameappliestomost Asian nations, especially

those with a relatively strongtraditional faith, suchas Hinduism, as opposed to

Asian societiesdominated by anarray of weak, non-exclusive faiths (Iannaccone,

1995c; Stark, 1996a).


10/25


Table4. Correlations (r ) among rates ofreligious member-ship in sub-Saharan Africa

Witnesses Muslims Christians

Witnesses 0.42** 0.43**

(37) (37)Muslims 0.86**(38)

** P


11/25


12/25

144 R. Stark & L . R . Iannaccone

increasing their effort to convince others that their beliefs are valideffortsmotivated by their need to reduce their cognitive dissonance. The Witnessesknew they had been wrong and they dealt with their disappointment withreducedeffort.

Medium Tension (Strictness)In order to grow,a religious movement must offer religious culture that sets itapart from thegeneral, secular culture. That is, movements mustbe distinctiveand impose relatively strict moral standards.

3. New religiousmovements are likely to succeedto the extent that theymaintain a medium level oftension with their surrounding environ-mentarestrict, butnottoo strict.

Strictness refers to thedegree that a religious group maintains a separateand

distinctive life style or morality in personal and family life, in such areas as

dress, diet, drinking, entertainment, uses of time, sex, child rearing, and thelike. Or a group is not strict to the degree that it affirms the current ...mainline life style in these respects (Iannaccone, 1994: 1190) .

To summarisethe basis for this proposition, strictness makes religious groupsstrong by screeningoutfree-riders andthereby increasing the average level ofcommitment in thegroup. This, in tum, greatly increases thecredibility ofthereligiousculture (especiallypromises concerningfuture benefits,since credibilityis the result ofhighlevels ofconsensus), as well as generatinga high degree ofresource mobilisation (see below). Put another way, high costs tend to increaseparticipation amongthose who do join by increasing the rewards derivedfromparticipation. It may seem paradoxical that when the cost of membership

increases, the net gains ofmembership increase too. However, this is necessarilythe case withcollectively producedgoods. For example, an individuals positiveexperience of aworship service increasesto the degree that thechurch isfull, themembers participateenthusiastically(everyone joins in thesongs andprayers),

and others express very positive evaluations ofwhat is taking place. Thus, aseach member pays the costs of membership, eachgains from higher levels ofproductionofcollective goods.

Table6 demonstrates this point ratherdramatically. The dataare basedonall20 2 self-identified Witnesses included in all of the General Social Surveys(1972 1994). However, as we already have seen, a substantial numberof self-identified Witnesses are only nominal members and are so regarded by the

group. Anauthentic Witness qualifies as a publisher and hence attendschurchseveral times a week. Of GSS Witness respondents, 52% reported attendingchurch more than once a week. It seems appropriate to use attendance to

separatetheactive from themerely nominal Witnesses. Thus, thetable lets uscompare the two groups and the combined group allows us to see what aWitnesscongregation would be like, ifall the nominal members were permittedto hang around and free ride.

It is obvious that ifthenominal membershung around, the average level ofcommitment would decline greatly in Witnesses congregations. There would bean immensedecline in the proportionwho strongly identifiedwith the denom-ination: from9 3 to 61%. There wouldbe a lot less praying. Among the married,


13/25


Table6 . Publishersandnominal witnesses,GS S 1 972 1994

Publishers

(105)

Nominal

(97)Combined

(202) US population

% Strong identificationwith denomination 93% 27% 61% 39%

% Pray daily 100% 59% 83% 56%% Spouse is a Witness 80% 21% 61%

(74) (57) (117)

% Who smoke 0% 48% 24% 35%% Whodrink 76% 85% 81% 71%% Who go to a barat

least oncea year 14% 49% 30% 49%

Married persons only.

the incidence of non-Witness spouses would increase from 20 to 39%. The

Witnesses would shift from a group wherein everyone observes theban onsmoking, to agroup inwhich many would betaking smoke breaks. Whiletherewould be little changein thepercentagewho drink (drinking isnot prohibitedbecause theBible teaches that Christ and the Apostles drank wine), there wouldbe a very substantial increase in the proportion of Witnesses to be found in barsand taverns. It seems clear that only because the Witnesses do notallow freeriding, arethey able to generate thecommitment neededto putpublishersonmillions ofdoorsteps everyyear.

Furthermore, for a religious group, as with any organisation, commitment isenergy. That is, when commitment levels arehigh, groups can undertake allmanner of collective actions and these are in no way limited to the psychic

realm. For example, Witnesses whose homes are damaged or destroyed bynatural disasters often have them repaired or completely rebuiltby volunteer

crews oftheirco-religionists.This line of analysis leads to a critical insight, perhaps the critical insight:

membership in a strict (costly) religion is, for manypeople,a goodbargain.Conventional cost-benefit analysis alonesuffices to explainthecontinued attrac-tion of strict religions.

Obviously, there are limits to how much tension or strictness is beneficial. Oneeasily notices groups too strict to expect growth. Strictnessmustbe sufficient toexcludepotentialfree-ridersand doubters, but it mustalso besufficiently low soas not to drive away everyoneexcept a few misfits and fanatics.

Appliedto the Witnesses,theissue is not whethertheyare sufficiently strict,but whether they arent too strict. Their stormy relations with outsiders, es-pecially governments, make it clear that they are in considerable tension withtheir environment. The very highexpectations concerning religiousand mission-ary activity, their unbending pacifism, rejection of flag-saluting and anthem-singing, and their refusal to have blood transfusions all demonstrateconsiderable strictness. Onthe other hand,the Witnessesare comfortablewithmuch of the general culture. Although they prohibit smoking, they do notprohibitdrinkingand most of them do. Theyhave no distinctive dress require-ments and female Witnesses do notstinton cosmeticspublishers are expectedto be nicely dressed and well-groomed, when they go calling. They do not


14/25


15/25


16/25

148 R. Stark & L . R. Iannaccone

a year (Siewert & Kenyon, 1993) . That same year, there were 3,279,270overseasJehovahs Witnesspublishers (nearlyall ofwhom werenative-speak-ers of thelanguage of their mission area) operating on a total budget of$45million(Yearbook, 1993: 33 , 40). That is 80 times as manymissionaries for a tinyfractionofthecost.

Does it matter?Each year the Witnesses publish thetotal number ofhours ofmissionary workthey performed. Dividing hoursof effort by thetotal numberofbaptisms achieved, shows that in recent years it has required about 3300hours ofpublishers time to produce a baptism. Dividing the total number ofhours by the average number ofpublishers,we find that each isputting inabout

20 hours of missionary work each monthand, thus, itrequires an average of14publishers to gain onebaptism per year.This mightnot seem impressive,butitcomes to a growth rate ofabout 7% per year. In thelast section of this essay wewill show that even far lower rates of annual growth must result in a hugeWitness population in a relatively short time.

In additionto missionising, a large volunteer religiouslabor force contributes

to the strengthof religious movementsin otherimportant ways(Iannaccone etal., 1996) . For example, labor can often be substituted for capital. Thus, while theMethodists must not only pay their clergy, butalso pay for all theirclerical,cleaning andmaintenanceservices, and hire contractorsto build newchurches,theWitnessesrely on volunteer labor to provideall these things, including theconstruction of their meeting halls. Indeed, the Witnesses rely on volunteerrapid-building crews to constructa new Kingdom Hall from thegroundup

over a single weekend.It is worth pausingto assess thequalifications ofthis labor force. It has been

widely assumed that the Witnesses are a proletarian movement (cf. Cohn,1955) . Of course, this is asserted about most religious movements and fre-

quently, this has been found not to be true (Stark & Bainbridge, 1985; Stark,1996a). Here, too, it seems not to be true. Thus, James Beckfords (1975) datashowed that British Witnesses rarely came from theworking class. While theupper classeswere also rarely represented,the British Witnesses were essentiallya middle-class movement.

This conclusion mustbe qualified by the fact that, at least inCanada and theUnited States, Witnesses are substantially less likely to attend college. TheCanadian Census reported that only 3% of Witnesses had college degrees,compared with 17% ofthegeneral population(the figures for both groups arebased on the population 25 44 ) . The American National Survey of ReligiousIdentification(ANSRI)reported that, of Witnessesage 25 and older,4% ofwhitesand8% of blacks were college graduates, orjustover5 % overall. The combinedGSS data reveal that5 % of Witnesseshad attended college.

This is entirely to be expected since the Witnesses express very negativeopinions about the worth of higher education. They much prefer that theirchildrenbecome publishers upon thecompletionofhigh school, and to pursueskilled crafts and trades. However, as Penton pointed out (1985: 274), theaverageWitness with only a high school educationis probably better educatedthan others with similar amounts of schooling, because Witness children arevery shaped-up, and are expected to study and get good grades. This issupported by performances on the 10-word vocabulary test included in the

General Social Surveys. Active Witnesses score as well on this test as do


17/25

The Growth ofJeho vahs Witnesses 149

members of the general population who have attended college and almostaswell as those whohave graduatedinactive Witnesses do notperform nearly aswell. In additionto being better studentswhenthey are in school, thismayalsoreflect the emphasis theWitnesses place on speaking and writing. Observersbelieve that Witnesses in Africa and Latin America are substantially better-

educated, and more apt to have technical training than the average citizen(Penton, 1985: 273).

It is true that the mean household income for American Witnessesabout$27,500 based on ANSRI datais slightly below thenational mean ($29,943 in1990, the year for which theANSRI data apply). However, this income figureseems remarkably high, when we take severalfactors into account. First, theWitnesses arefar less likely to be employed full-time47% in the ANSRI data,compared with 63% of the general population. Some Witnesses (especiallypioneers)choose to support themselvesby working only part-timein order todevote moretime to church work.Moreover, half ofall female respondents intheANSRI data reported themselves as full-time housewives. Given that many

of the other Witness females are single, widowed or divorced, relatively fewWitness families have two earners. In addition, as will be seen, white non-Hispanics make up less than half of American Witnessesand still theaverageWitness household income iscloseto the nationalaverage.Indeed, Witnesses areprecisely as likely as the generalpopulation to owntheir own home(63% in the

GSS data). Despitehaving fewcollege graduates among themanddespitegivingtheir primary attention to religious work, the Witnesses seem remarkablywell-offeconomically.

AdequateFertility

In order to succeed,

6. Religious movementsmust maintaina level of fertility sufficient tooffsetmember mortality.

Many religious movements have been doomed, because they had such lowlevels of fertility that very highrates of conversion soon were necessary merely

to offsethigh rates of mortality.Nosuch problems confront the Witnesses.The CanadianCensus reveals them

to be slightly younger than Canadiansin general.Table7 showsthe same istrueintheUnited StatesWitnesses are more likely to be under 30 andless likely tobe over 65 than is the generalpopulation. Moreover, active American Witnessesaremoreapt to be married thanis the general population, which is confirmedby theAmerican National Survey ofReligious Identification (ANSRI). They alsoare far more likely to have large familiesabout a third have four or morechildren.The ANSRI failedto askadults how manychildren they had, but itdidobtain completedataon thecomposition ofthe household, whichallowed thecalculationthat the mean household size(3.4) ofJehovahs Witnesses is exceededonly by Mormons (3.8) among major religious groups (the generalpopulationfigure is 2.6). However, Witnesses are disproportionatelyfemale, less so amongthe active members, less so according to the ANSRI, andeven lessso inCanada(55% female). It is typicalfor religiousmovements to over-recruit women (Miller

& Hoffman, 1995) , but this is not importantso long as it doesnotresult in too


18/25


Table7 . Demographics ofAmerican Witnesses

GSS 19 72 1994ANSRI

1990

(720)

US A (GSS)

1972 1994

(32,380)

Publishers

(105)

Nominal

(97)

Combined

(202)

Maritallife

% Married% Ever Divorced

78%16%

52 %25%

65%20%

65%

60 %18%

Fertility

% 2 or more kids% 4 ormore kids

Age% 18-29% Over 65

65%

31%

31%

10%

58 %

23%

32%

11%

61%

27%

32%

10%

2

2

27%

11%

57%

18%

24%

19%

Se x% Fem ale 67% 75% 71% 64% 56%

Race

% African-American% Asian-American% Hispanic-American% White, Non-Hispanic

29%9%

13%

49%

36%6%

11%

47%

32%7%

12%

49%

40 %4%

12%

44 %

14%2%

5%

79%

little fertility. It is of interest that theWitnesses are about as likely as otherAmericansto have been divorced.

It haslong been noticed that theWitnessesareveryunusual for their degree

ofracial andethnic integration, notonly among therank andfile, but among

leaders as well. Witness literaturehas always been quite militant in its standagainst all forms of prejudice and discrimination. The data fully supporttheseperceptions. Both the GSS data and the ANSRI data reveal that white, non-Hispanic Americans make up less than half of self-identified AmericanWitnesses. African- Hispanic- and Asian-Americans form the majority. Thismay greatlyfacilitate the appeal ofthe movement in LatinAmerica, Africa andparts ofAsia.

AFavorableEcology

To theextent that a religious economy iscrowded witheffective andsuccessful

firms, it will be harder fornewfirms to make headway(Stark& Bainbridge1985;1987; 1997;Stark & Iannaccone 1994, 1996) . Stated as a proposition:

7. Other things beingequal, new and unconventional religious organi-

sations will prosper to theextentthat they compete against weak, localconventional religious organisations within a relatively unregulatedreligious economy.

Put anotherway, new religious organisations will do best whereconventionalreligious mobilisation is lowat least to the degree that thestate gives suchgroupsa chance toexist. Thus, we ought to find that where conventionalchurchmembership and church attendance rates are low, the incidence of unconven-

tionalreligious movements will be high.


19/25


Table 8. Where the Witnesses grow25 Canadian metropolitan areas (1991)

Correlations( r ) with%giving their religious

Membership rates affiliation as none

Jehovahs Witnesses 0.61**Para-religions 0.82**

48 Americanstates (1990)

Correlations( r) with:

% Giving theirreligious Church membership

affiliation as none rate per 1000

Membershiprates

Jehovahs Witnesses 0.39** 0.48**

Cult centers 0.52** 0.32*

* P


20/25


21/25


Studies ofthetransformationofsects from higherto lower tension havelongrecognised thecentral role playedby second and third generationmembers in

this process. As Bryan Wilson (1966: 207) putit, There iscertainly a differencebetween those who are converted to a sect, and those who accept adventistteachings at their mothers knee. When groups do not grow, orgrow very

slowly, they will soon be made up primarily of those who did not choose tobelong,butsimply grew up belonging. Conversion selects people who find thecurrent level of a movements strictness to besatisfactory. However, socialisa-tion will not select nearly so narrowly. Therefore, unless most whodesirereducedcosts defect (which tends to be thecase for encapsulated groups, suchas the Amish), the larger the proportion of socialised members, the larger theproportion who wishto reduce strictness.

Effective Socialisation

To succeed,

10 . Religious movements must socialise the young sufficiently well asto minimise bothdefection and theappeal ofreduced strictness.

We have noted how groups have perishedfor lack offertility. A sufficiently highrate of defection by those born into thefaithamounts to thesame thing as lowfertility. Thatis, much conversion isneededsimplyto offset mortality. Yet, theretentionofoffspring isnot favorable tocontinuedgrowth, if it causesthe groupto reduce its strictness, as noted above.

It seems instructive that two ofthe most successful religious movements ofmodern timesthe Mormons and the Witnessesboth achieve very effectivesocialisation by giving young people important roles to perform. Mormonreligious education is predicated on the assumption that it is preparingteenagers to be missionaries, thereby being ableto send more than 40,000 youngmen and women off each year to be full-time missionaries (at their ownexpense). Nothing builds more intense commitment than the act of being amissionary, and for Mormons this experience comes at preciselytheage whenpeopleare themost susceptible to doubt and defection.

The Witnesses do not train their children to spend 2 years as full-timemissionaries,butthey do trainthem, from their earlyteens, to spend a lifetimeas apart-time missionaryapublisher. Most Witnesschildren begin to knock ondoorsby thetime they complete high school (and many beginyounger). Beingthus exposed to rejection, ridicule and even abuse may cause some young

Witnesses to withdraw. However, it appears thatrejection binds most of themevermorestrongly to the movement,to thecommunity ofspecial believers whohave overcome Satans power. Consequently, the Witnesses seem quite suc-cessful inretaining their childrenBeckford (1975) found that about two-thirdsof those over 1 6 withWitnessparents remainedactive members. Throug 1994,the GSS data include 67 persons who reported that at age 1 6 they wereWitnesses and47 (or 70%) of them reported they still were.

Future Prospects

Recently, Gerald Marwell (1996: 1099) rhetorically dismissed the Jehovahs

Witnesses as unlikelyto be around 100 years from now. In our view, notonly


22/25

154 R. Stark & L . R. Iannaccone

Table 9. ProjectedJehovahsWitness growth 1990-2090

2% per year 4% per year Actual

1991 3,923,237 4,000,163 4,071,9541992 4,001,702 4,160,170 4,289,7371993 4,081,736 4,326,577 4,483,900

1994 4,163,371 4,499,640 4,695,111

1995 4,246,630 4,679,625 4,950,344

2000 4,688,631 5,693,4802010 5,715,416 8,427,741

2020 6,967,060 12,475,115

2030 8,492,807 18,466,2182040 1 0,35 2,6 84 2 7,334 ,5 13

2050 12,619,865 40,461,757

2060 15,383,544 59,893,283

2070 18,752,454 88,656,690

2080 22,859,137 131,233,557

2090 27,865,161 194,257,721

willtheystill bearound, but it seems very likelythat by then,they will be a verylarge religious body. Because the properties of exponential growth are notintuitive, it is useful to examine straight-line projections oftheposs ib le futuresofrapidly growing movements.

In recent years the Witnesses have beengrowing inexcess of5% per year.Tobe conservative, letussuppose that over thenext centurytheyare able to growby 4% per year. To be even less optimistic about theirprospects, let us base asecondprojection on only halfthat rate.Both results are shown inTable 9. Ifthe

Witnessesgrowby a mere 2% per year, they will number almost 28 million inthe year2090. If theygrowby 4 % per year,theywill number nearly200 millionin2090and keep in mind that these projections arebased only on publishers.

Thus far, as can be seen in the column at the far right in Table 9, actualWitness growth substantially exceeds even the 4% projections. Granted thatmany things can invalidate projections, when a movement has maintained asubstantial rate ofgrowth for a longtime, it takes alot to slow it down. Considerthat ifsocial scientists back in 1950 had projected Witness growth for thenext40 years atthe rate of6% per year, their membershipprediction for 1990 wouldhave been nearly500,000 too low.

In anyevent, whilewe cannotbe sureat what ratetheWitnesses will grow

during thenext century, in our judgmenttheleast plausible assumptionis thattheywill quit growingor beginto decline in thenear future. Continued growthis the most plausible assumption and we favor the4 % projection.

Conclusion

This essay has combined very general theoretical aims with an extensivedescriptionof a majorreligiousmovement. The modelis an attemptto state thenecessary and (hopefully) thesufficient conditions for thesuccess of religiousmovements. By applying this model to theJehovahs Witnesses we have tried

not only to test it, butto explain why a movement that most social scientific


23/25


observers seem to have found uninteresting or unattractive, has achieved suchremarkable success. We propose thattheJehovahs Witnesseshave grownandwill continue to grow to theextentthat they satisfy these propositionsotherthings beingequal.

Whatever theeventual fate ofthetheory, we wouldhope that our descriptivematerials would help to convinceother scholarsthat their time isnotbetter spentdocumenting the rites of a coven of13 Dutch witches. Far better that they shouldcontributeto understanding a movementthat is changing millions oflives.

Rodn ey Stark is Professor ofSociology andComparative Religion at the University of

Washington. Correspondence: University ofWashington, DK-40, Seattle, WA 98195,USA. Laurence R. Iannaccone is P rofessor ofEconomics at Santa Clara University.Correspondence: Santa Clara University, Santa Clara, CA 95053. USA.

NOTES

Fortunately, the Americanstudy wassummarised in a chapter (Kephart & Zellner, 1994).

Oneofthe more widelyused sociologytexts devotes1 2 pages,fully or partially, tothe Moonies,

even greatercoverage tothe Shakers and the Mormons, but mentions the Witnessesonly twice(Roberts, 1995). The first mentionconsists of one sentence and the second mention merely

includes them in a list ofconservative churches. Asecondwidely-used text (Johnstone,1992)

also makes only two trivial mentions ofthe Witnesses, while also devoting substantial coverage

to far less significant groups. The samepattern holds among historians. The most popular

textbook on American religion (Albanese, 1992) includes many pages on Bahai, Theosophy,Christian Science, NewThought,New Age, the ShakersandFather Divine, but makes only twovery passing mentions of the Witnesses (the author devotes three-and-a-half pages and two

additional references to Elvis Presley!). As for the most recent history of American religion

written for thepopularmarket,the index ofMartin Martys Pilgrims in TheirOwnLan d: 50 0 YearsofRel igio n in America (1984) includes twopage references to the Witnesses, one of which is

actually devotedto the Bible Student movementfrom which theWitnesses emerged, the othermerely mentioning that President Dwight EisenhowerhadWitness relatives. Such brevity could

not have been governed by lack ofspace, since Marty included substantial discussions of far

smaller and less significant groups including the Moonies, Christian Science, Bahai, Oneida,Shakers, Transcendental Meditation and Yoga.SeeBergman(1984) fora shorthistory of the Bible Student Movementand its schisms,together

witha comprehensive bibliography of all Bible Student writings.

Ironically, most mainline Christians currently view the Trinityas an unfathomable mystery

and many doubt that all non-Christians are destined for the firesof hell. Yet, it isforlackof

belief inthesetraditional doctrines that Christian writerscommonlyclassify the Witnessesas acult.

Both Kosminssurveyand the General Social Surveys suggest thatabout40%ofself-identifiedAmerican Witnesses do not attend church regularly. Given that about 20 % of the American

population is under age14 and about28% is under 18, it seems likelythat 1520% of Witness

children are not counted as publishers. Finally, the category of interested affiliates is large,

because newcomersare not encouraged to formallyjoin the JehovahsWitnesses until they have

been involved for a yearor two.Based on the Witnesses 5 % annual growth rate, we may infer

thatthe number ofinterested affiliates isperhaps 10%,as largeas the total numberofpublishers.This marked tendency to marrywithin the group is also confirmed by Canadian census data

(Heaton, 1990).Fora formal derivation ofthese propositions,seeIannaccone (1992).

Fora game-theoretic model of this principle, see Iannaccone (1992, 1994).

For a definition of these groups and an analysis based on an earlier edition of Meltonsencyclopedia,seeStark& Bainbridge, 1985.


24/25

156 R . Stark & L . R. Iannaccone

REFERENCES

Albanese, C. L. AmericaReligions an dReligion. Belmont,CA: Wadsworth, 1992.Bainbridge, W. S . Satans Power. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1978.

Bainbridge, W. S . The Sociology ofRe lig io us Mov em en ts . NewYorkand London:Routledge, 1997.Barrett, D. B . WorldC hristian Encyclopedia: AComparative SurveyofChurches andReligions inthe Modern

World A.D. 19002000. Nairobi: Oxford University Press, 1982.

Beckford,J . A. Th e TrumpetofProphesy:ASociological StudyofJeho va hs Witnesses. New York: Wiley,1975.

Bergman, J . Jehovahs Witnesses an d Kindred Groups: A Historical Compendium an d Bibliography. New

York, NY : Garland Publishing Inc., 1984. [Series information: Sects and Cults in America:BibliographicalGuides, vol. 4. General editor: J . Gordon Melton.]

Botting, H. & Botting, G. Th e Orwellian World ofJe ho va hs Witnesses. Toronto: University ofToronto

Press, 1984.

Bradley, M. B.,Green,N. M. Jr., Jones, D . E., Lynn,M. & McNeil, L . Churches and Church Membershipin the United States, 1990. Atlanta: GlenmaryResearch Center, 1992.

Cohn, W. Jehovahs Witnesses as a ProletarianMovement. American Scholar 24, 1955: 281298.

Conway, J . S . Th e Nazi Pe rsecution ofthe Churches: 19321945. Toronto: ReyersonPress., 1968.

Festinger, L., Henry, H . W . & Schachter, S. When Prophesy Fails. Minneapolis: University of

Minnesota Press,1956.

Franz, R. Crisis ofConscience. Atlanta,GA : Commentary Press, 1983.Heaton, T . B. Vital Statistics. Encyclopedia ofM or mon ism, 1990.Iannaccone, L. R . Religious Practice: A HumanCapital Approach. Journalfort he Scientific Study of

Rel igio n 29, 1990: 2 97 314.

Iannaccone, L. R. Sacrifice and Stigma: Reducing FreeRising in Cults, Communes, and Other

Collectives.Journal ofPolitical Economy 100, 1992: 271291.

Iannaccone, L . R. Why Strict Churches Are Strong. American Journal of Sociology 99, 1994:1180-1211.

Iannaccone, L. R. Risk, Rationality, and ReligiousPortfolios. EconomicInquiry 33, 1995c: 285 295.Iannaccone, L. R., Olson, D. & Stark,R. Religious Resources and Church Growth. Social Forces 74,

1996: 705-731.

Johnstone, R. L. Religion in Society: A Sociology ofRe ligion . Englewood Cliffs: Prentice Hall, 1992.

Kaplan, W. State an d Salvation: Th e Jehovahs Witnesses an d their Fight for Civil Rights. Toronto:University ofToronto Press, 1989.

Kephart,W. & Zellner, W. Extraordinary Groups:AnExamination ofUnconventional Life-Styles, 5th edn.

NewYork: St. Martins Press, 1994.Kosmin, B. A. Research Report: Th e National Survey of Religious Identification. New York: City

University ofNewYork, 1991.

Kox,W., Meeus, W., & Hart, H.t. Religious Conversion ofAdolescents: Testing the Lofland andStarkModel ofReligious Conversion. Sociological Analysis 52, 1991: 227240.

Lofland,J . & Stark,R. Becoming a World-Saver: A TheoryofConversion to a Deviant Perspective.

American Sociological Review 30, 1965: 862 875.

Marty, M. Pilgrims in Their Own Land: 50 0 Years ofRel igi on in America. Boston: Little, Brown, 1984.

Marwell, G. We Still Dont Know ifStrict Churches are Strong, Much Less Why: Comment onIannaccone.American Journal ofSociology 101, 1996: 1097 1108.

Melton, J . G. The Encyclopedia ofAm er ican Religions, 3rdedn. Detroit: GaleResearch, 1989.Miller, A. S. & Hoffman, J . P. Risk and Religion: An Explanation of Gender Differences in

Religiosity.Journal for the Scientific Study ofRel igio n, 34 1995: 6375.

Penton, M. J . ApocalypseDelayed: Th e Story ofJe ho va h s Witnesses.Toronto: University ofToronto Press,

1985.

Roberts, K. A. Religion in Sociological Perspective. Belmont, CA : Wadsworth, 1995.

Siewert, J . & Kenyon,J . A., eds. Mission Handbook: 19931995 Edition. Monrovia, CA: MARC, 1993.

Singelenberg, R. It Separated the Wheat fromthe Chaff: The 1975 Prophesy and its Impact onDutch JehovahsWitnesses. Sociological Analysis 50, 1989: 23 40.

Stark, R. How NewReligions Succeed: A Theoretical Mode, inBromley, D. & Hammond, P. E .,eds. Th e FutureofNewReligious Movements. Macon: Mercer University Press, 1987: 1129.

Stark,R. Reconstructing the Rise ofChristianity:E xplorations inHistorical Sociology. Princeton: Princeton

University Press, 1996a.


25/25

The Growth ofJeho va hs Witnesses 157

Stark, R. why Religious Movements Succeed or Fail: A Revised General Mode. Journal of

Contemporary Religion 11, 1996b: 133146.

Stark, R . Towards a Theory ofReligion: Religious Commitment.Journal fort he Scientific Studyof

Rel igio n 19, 1980: 114118.

Stark, R. Th e Future ofRel igion: Secularization, Revival, an d CultFormation. Berkeley: University of

California Press, 1985.

Stark, R . & Bainbridge, W. S. A Theory ofRe ligion. NewYork & Geneva: Peter Lang, 1987.

Stark,R. & Iannaccone, L . R. Rational Choice Propositions andReligious Movements, in Bromley,D. G. & Hadden, J . K., eds. Religion and the Social Order: Handbooko n Cults an d Sects in America.

Greenwich, Conn:JAI Press, 1993: 109125.

Statistics Canada. Religions in Canada: Th e Nation. Ottawa: Statistics Canada, 1993.

Wilson, B. Religion in Secular Society. London: C.A. Watts, 1966.

YearbookofJe ho vahs Witnesses. Annual editions. Brooklyn: Watchtower Bible and Tract Society.Zellner, W. OfAnother World: Th e Jehovahs Witnesses. Unpublished PhD Dissertation, Sociology,

South Dakota State University, 1981.

Documents

Iannaccone - JW Growth1