IBON- Nat Sit, Econ-pol 1008-27

8/8/2019 IBON- Nat Sit, Econ-pol 1008-27

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Change Under theNew Administration?

On the national economic & political situation

IBON Foundation

August 27, 2010


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Outline

Intro

Economiccrisis: Undemocratic economyPoverty, inequality & backwardness

Political crisis: Undemocratic politicsElite rule & repression

Policy challenges The story so far


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Si Manny Villar angmagtatapos ng

ating kahirapan.Kung walang corrupt,Kung walang corrupt,walang mahirap.walang mahirap.Pag may Erap,

may ginhawa.

Bayan natin,bago lahat.

Pagbabagongkailangan sa ating

bagumbayan

Sa mabilis na pag-ahon kailangan nggaling at talino

Babangon ba tayo sa

hirap? Eddie syempre!Sa wakas,

panibagongPilipinas!

You will never walk alone


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Economic crisis:

Poverty & backwardness


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Philippines Real GDP Growth by Administration, 1986-2009

(1.0)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Year

%

Aquino:ave. 3.9% Ramos:

ave. 3.8% Estrada:ave. 2.4%

Arroyo:ave. 4.5%

Rapid economic growth


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Unemployment Rate, 1956-2009 (%)

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

1956

1959

1962

1965

1968

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

Year

%

Lumaki saLumaki sa

panahon ngpanahon ngglobalisasyonglobalisasyon

Pinakamataas naPinakamataas naunemploymentunemployment

rate, 11.2%rate, 11.2%(ave. 2001(ave. 2001--09)09)

rising unemployment


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Tunayna unemployment rate*

4.3 Mwalang trabaho(2009)

28.1 Mmababang kalidad natrabaho, sa 35.1 M employed noong2009: 4.2 Munpaid family workers 12.2 Mown account workers 11.7 Mwage and salary workers

walang nakasulat na kontrata (tantsang IBON batay sa NSO data)

* adjusting for govts change in methodology in April 2005; 2009 labor force ~ 39.4 million (IBONestimates on NSO data)

record joblessness


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NCR Daily Non-Agricultural Minimum Wage,

1987-2010p (Pesos, 2000=100)

237.42

238.10

120.92

216.16

216.63203.10

201.02

242.35

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-86

Jul

Jan-87

Jul

Jan-88

Jul

Jan-89

Jul

Jan-90

Jul

Jan-91

Jul

Jan-92

Jul

Jan-93

Jul

Jan-94Jul

Jan-95

Jul

Jan-96

Jul

Jan-97

Jul

Jan-98

Jul

Jan-99

Jul

Jan-00

Jul

Jan-01

Jul

Jan-02

Jul

Jan-03

Jul

Jan-04Jul

Jan-05

Jul

Jan-06

Jul

Jan-07

Jul

Jan-08

Jul

Jan-09

Jul

Jan-10

Month

Pesos

Nominal wage

Real wage (inflation-adjusted)

Aquino:tumaas P82

Ramos:P16

Estrada:

P22Arroyo:

P5

flat wages


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2008: 8.2 M Pilipinonag-abroad paramagtrabaho (stock ng

permanent & temporaryworkers)

2009: 3,900 umaalisaraw-araw

record forced

migration


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Opisyal na poverty line

(2006) = P41 =

= 33%33%Opisyal napovertyincidence

28 M na mahirap?(NSCB, 2006)

1 kilo bigas,1 itlog


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Alternatibongpoverty line (2006)

= P86 == 70%70%

Poverty

incidence67%67% Self-rated poverty

(April 2010)

66 M na mahirap!(94 M populasyon, 2010)


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Severe inequality Net income ng Top 1,000

corporations:

2001: P116 bilyon 2002: P173 B

2003: P176 B

2004: P371 B

2005: P497 B

2006: P599 B

2007: P686 B

2008: P416 bilyon

Ave. 2002-08: P417 bilyon


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Kita sa 1 taon ngpinakamahirap na

10,400,000pamilya(52,000,000+milyong Pilipino)

Net worth ng 20pinakamayamang

Pilipino

US$15.6US$15.6billionbillion

(2006)


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Gross Domestic Product, by Industry

1946-2009p (% of GDP, current prices)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1946

1949

1952

1955

1958

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

Year

%

Agric l re, fi hery & forestry

Industry

Manufacturing

Services

Manupakturakasing liit ng

sa 1950s

Agrikulturapinakamaliit

sa kasaysayan

21.8%

18.1%

2009p


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Overseas em tta ces,

1980-2009 ( S$ m lli , f GDP)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Year

US$milli

,c

rre

t

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

fGDP

OFW remittances (US$ million)

As percentage of GDP (% )

1980-90:Slowly rising

share of GDP

1990-2004:Rapidly growingshare of GDP

2004-2009:Flattening

share of GDP?


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National Government (NG) Deficit,

1999-2009/2010e (PhP billion and % of GDP)(390.3)(298.5)(210.7)

(4.9)

(3.8)

(5.4)

(450)

(400)

(350)

(300)

(250)

(200)

(150)

(100)

(50)

0

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Year

PhPb

illion

(6.0)

(5.0)

(4.0)

(3.0)

(2.0)

(1.0)

0.0

PhP billion

% of GDP

P622 B P746 B est

Kabuuang bayadsa utang


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1st

semester 2010 trends 7.9% GDP growth(NSCB)

Listed companies doubled 1st quarter

profits (PSE) 1Q-09 : P64.1 billion

1Q-10 : P137.1 billion

Apr2010(NSO)

4.7 million unemployed Filipinos

11.6% unemployment


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Political crisis:

Elite rule & repression


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Presidential-level electoral fraud (2004) +P20.9 billion (US$430 M) ofkickbacks, ill-gotten

wealth

& payoffs in just 16 majorcorr

uptioncases

1. IMPSA power scam (US$470 M project; US$14 M kickback)2. PIATCO-NAIA Terminal 3 scam (US$425 M project; US$20-70 M kickback)3. Jose Pidal accounts (P300-400 M in ill -gotten wealth)4. Fertilizer funds scam (P728 M for presidential election campaign)5. NorthRail scam (US$503 M project; US$50 M kickback)6. Diosdado Macapagal Boulevard scam (P1.1 B project; P533 M kickback)7. Quedancor swine scam (P2.5 B program; P900 M for presidential election

campaign)

8. Irrigation fund scam (P3.1 B missing)9. Mega-Pacific poll automation scam (P1.3 B project; P500 M kickback)10. NBN-ZTE scam (US$330 M project; US$130 M kickback)11. Cybereducation project (P27 B)12. Military comptrollers scandal (P71 M in ill-gotten wealth)13. Euro General scandal (P7 M in ill-gotten wealth)14. Jueteng payoffs (P500,000 to P1 M monthly)15. PEACE Bonds (P1.4 B brokers fee)16. Mismanaged PAGCOR/GSIS funds (hundreds of mill ions of pesos)

Hello Garci?... So Iwill still lead

by more than one M, overall?


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Election outcomes Aquino anti-Arroyo, anti-

corruption+Binay solid LGUnetworking

Votes

garnered

(% of total)

Percentage

point leadover second

placer

Ramos (1992) 23.6 3.9

Estrada (1998) 39.9 24.0Arroyo (2004) 40.0 3.

Aquino (2010) 42.1 15.8


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Democratic elections? New old senators

Revilla (Lakas-Kampi),Estrada (PMP),Defensor-Santiago (PRP), Drilon (LP),

Enrile (PMP), Cayetano (NP), Marcos(NP),Recto (LP), Sotto, III (NPC),Osmena, III (LP),Lapid (Lakas-Kampi),Guingona, III (LP)

Millionnaire Congress(HOR) 75% triple or double-digit

millionnaires (P10.5 - 947.9M)


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Democratic elections? Political dynasties, warlords

& electoral violence Ex. Aquino-Cojuangco, Marcoses c/o CenPEG 16 senators (67%), 130+

congressmen (60% ofregular seats), 53gov/26vice gov from political families

Money/big biz-driven victories Tens/hundreds of millions & billions of pesos to

finance campaigns

c/o NEDA P10 billion campaign spending byall candidates c/o PCIJ P4.3 billion in just ad spending by

natl/partylist candidates

US influence in spirit of democratization


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Democratic elections? Weak party system,

corrupted partylist system

Systematic State-sponsored

attacks/campaigns againstprogressive groups Bayan Muna,Anakpawis, Gabriela

Womens Party, Kabataan,ACT

Teachers, Katribu & Makabayan Glaring sign of anti-democratic

tendencies in Philippine politicalsystem


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Political repression & humanrights violations 1,205 extrajudicial killings, 206 enforced

disappearances, 371 political prisoners

Militarist approach to armed conflict 2001 NationalInternal SecurityPlan (NISP),

National Military Strategy (NMS), Oplan BantayLaya 1 & 2

Erratic peace talks with CPP-NPA-NDFP& MILF US military aid (2001-11): US$427 million up to

est. US$1.3 billion; helicopters, aircraft, ships,boats, trucks, rifles, helmets, vests


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Imperyalismong US: Higit na diin sa

Timog-Silangang Asya & sa Pilipinas Counter-maneuvering against

China/Europe (motive), superpowerstatus (means), focus on marked

increase in focus on ASEAN (method) 2 porma ng US intervention sa Phil:

Pwersang militar sundalo, logistics,military aid, trainings/exercises, CMO

Democratization ex. election-relatedtrainings sa govt agencies,LGUs,

judiciary, media, NGOs


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Critical forward deployed/postured forcesin East Asia/Asia-Pacific Domestic threats: Abu Sayyaf, MILF, CPP-

NPA-NDFP

Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA), MutualLogistics Support Agreement (MLSA) Operation Enduring Freedom-Philippines

(OEFP, Oct-2001) ~ 50,000 US troopsnationwide in rotating deployment(ex.163 exercises in 2008)

Joint Special Operations Task Force-Philippines (JSOTF-P, 2003) ~ 600 US

special operations forces (SOF) troops Counter-terrorism & irregular warfare:

combat operations & support + civic actions& engineering projects + psychologicaloperations

US-RP Security Engagement Board (SEB,2006)

Joint Defense Assessment (JDA, 2003) &Philippine Defense Reform (PDR) 2001-2011: US$427 million in military aid +

US$926 million in socioeconomic aid

US agenda &

intervention


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Policy challenges7 major tasks1. Immediate social & economicrelief

2. Avert fiscal crisis in a progressive manner

3. Addressjobs crisis ofrecord high unemployment,poor quality work and low earnings

4. Rectify severe inequalities in income, wealth andassets (including of land)

5. Promote real democracy & human rights

6. Curb pervasive corruption including electoral fraud7. Restore countryssovereigntyin its international

economic and political affairs


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Building political momentum:

Pro-demo

cracy & pea

ce

1. Investigate/prosecute formerPres.Arroyo/allies for electoral fraud,corruption and serious human rightsviolations (HRVs)

2. Investigate/prosecute military & police

officials for involvement in serious HRVs;transmit 1998 ICC Rome Treaty to Senateforratification

3. Independent probe ofMay 10 elections4. Suspend/review Visiting Forces

Agreement(VFA) with US and, inmeantime, expel US forces

5. Immediately resume formalpeace talkswith NDFP and MILF Release all political prisoners as confidence-

building and goodwill measure


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The story so far

Insanity: doing the same thing overand over again and expecting differentresults.

Albert Einstein

1879-1955


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State of play:

Possibilities &realities

(+)

Pagbabago! Democracy,peace & prosperity

As president sound 42%mandate +vast powers ofpresidency Majority in HOR,control of

Senate, also in LGUs albeitfluid

Domestic & international

goodwill Strong peoples movements

resilient even uponsystematic attack

()

Pagbabago! Democracy,peace & prosperity

Big business influence onadministration

Likely factionalism& in-fighting

Arroyo rearguards in Consti-indep SC & Ombudsman

US interest in Philippines aspart of imperial geopoliticalagenda in East/SEAsia


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State of play:Possibilities &realities

(+) ()

Continued globalization offensive Economic life under control ofprivate profit-seeking interests Privatization Public-Private

Partnerships(ex. water/powerratehikes,LRT/MRT rate hikes, toll fees)

FTAs DTA Sec. Domingo: Well try tojoin as many trade agreements aspossible

Continued anti-people fiscalpolicy

To payrising debt se

rvice

Higher taxes, fees &charges ?! Why not tax wealthy/high-income Decreased spending on social &

economic services


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Hacienda Luisita

sham compromise deal

Hacienda LuisitaSDO, evasion ofland reform


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Salamat po

www.ibon.org IBON Foundation is on Facebook twitter.com/IbonFoundation


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Verdict on automation


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AES failure:Fraud was possible

Doubts on Comelec integrity

Basic principle:Private voting, public counting

AES controversies/vulnerabilities Lack of transparency, security &voterverifiability

Franticreplacement of 76,000 CF cards

Transmission failures, possibility ofremote access to

canvassing servers Bottlenecks

?! 3-5 million disenfranchised voters


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Traditional fraud methods Ex. vote-buying, ballot substitution/pre-

shading, padding ofvoters list ?! Automated fraud ?!

Privatization of elections

Comelec outsourcing Consti function toprivate & foreign firm Smartmatic primarily profit-seeking firm

AES failure:Fraud was possible


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Recycled ideas,Recycled Cabinet


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Pagbabago?

Bangayan: Kamaganak Inc, Trapo LP,Hyatt 10, The Firm, Soc Dem/civil society

Ochoa (Exec Sec),Abad (PMS),Lacierda (Spokesman),

de Mesa (Legal counsel) de Lima (DOJ),Romulo (DFA),Robredo (DILG) Paderanga (NEDA),Purisima (DOF),Henares (BIR),

Abad (DBM),Domingo (DTI) Reyes (DAR),Alcala (DA),Paje (DENR),Baldoz (DOLE),

de Jesus (DOTC),Singson (DPWH),Almendras (DOE),

Lim (DOT),Montejo (DOST) Soliman (DSWD),Deles (OPAPP),Luistro (DepED),

Licuanan (CHED),Ona (DOH) Gazmin (DND),David (AFPchief-of-staff),Verzosa (PNP

chief)


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Pagbabago?

de Lima (DOJ) most positiveappointment; strong HR advocate

Romulo (DFA) recycled, pro-VFA, favored DanielSmoth transfer to US embassy, pro-JPEPA, ex-DFA/DOF

Paderanga (NEDA) ex-NEDA, ex-ADB, Foundation forEconomic Freedom, pro-neoliberal globalization, UPSE

Purisima (DOF) Hyatt 10, pro-VAT, ex-SGV/Ernst &Young,ArthurAndersen

Domingo (DTI) ex-SM Investments Corp, ex-ChaseManhattan/Chemical Bank, ex-DTI USec

Henares (BIR) ex-World Bank, ex-BIR


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Pagbabago?

de Jesus (DOTC) ex-president Meralco

Singson (DPWH) ex-Maynilad CEO

Almendras (DOE) ex-president Manila Water

Lim (DOT) Makati Business Club

Soliman (DSWD)/Deles (OPAPP) anti-Left

Luistro (DepED) no public school experience

Ona (DOH) pro-health privatization, pro-corporatization


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Hello Garci?... So Iwill still lead

by more than one M, overall?


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Documents

IBON- Nat Sit, Econ-pol 1008-27