ICES/NAFO Decadal SymposiumSantander, Spain10-12 May, 2011

Changes in the NAO forcing in the North Atlantic during 2000-2009

K. Drinkwater, E. Colbourne, and H. Loeng

OutlineOutline

• Introduction to North Atlantic Oscillation

• Temporal Variability in NAO Index

• Decadal

• Spatial Variability in SSP patterns

•Effects on Composite Climate Index (SSTs, SSSs, Sea Ice)

•NW Atlantic-Norwegian/Barents Sea

•Conclusions

Positive Phase of NAO• deeper Low over Iceland, stronger High over the Azores

• more northerly storm track

• Colder, dryer in NW Atlantic

• Warmer, wetter in Europe

Negative Phase of NAO• weaker Low over Iceland, weaker High over the Azores

• weaker storms, move southerly

• Warmer, wetter in NW Atlantic

• Colder dryer in Europe

Phases of the NAO

http://bit.ly/c5WPrR C.G. Fletcher

NAO linked to variability in SSTs, SSSs, subsurface SSTs, convection, strength of ocean currents, heat advection, etc.

A few A few Biological Biological Correlates Correlates with NAOwith NAO

NAO in 2000-2009

Hurrell NAO IndexHurrell NAO Index

Hurrell website

Winter (DJFM) NAO index using difference of normalized sea level pressure (SLP) between Lisbon, Portugal and Stykkisholmur/Reykjavik, Iceland since 1864. The SLP anomalies at each station were normalized by division of each seasonal mean pressure by the long-term mean (1864-1983) standard deviation.

NAO Time Series – Decadal VariabilityNAO Time Series – Decadal Variability

In 2000-2009 postive index but declined from high in 1990s, still 4th highest decade on record; within decade variance 4th lowest out of 14.

Sea Level Pressure Anomalies (Relative to 1968-1996)Sea Level Pressure Anomalies (Relative to 1968-1996)

2000 2001 2002

2003 2004

Sea Level Pressure Anomalies (Relative to 1968-1996)

2005 2006

20092008

2007

2000-09 Mean SLP and Anomalies2000-09 Mean SLP and Anomalies

Sea Level Pressure Sea Level Pressure Anomalies

There were weak SLP anomalies with the largest variability in the NE Atlantic. Little difference in NW.

1950-59 1960-69 1970-79

1980-89 1990-99 2000-09

NAO relationships with environmental variables

2000-09

1990-99

Positive SST anomalies throughout the North Atlantic.

In contrast, earlier decades tend to show out of phase between NW and NE Atlantic.

1950-59

1980-891970-79

1960-69

  1950.001951.0

01952.0

01953.001954.0

01955.001956.0

01957.0

01958.001959.0

01960.001961.0

01962.001963.0

01964.001965.0

01966.001967.0

01968.0

01969.001970.0

01971.0

01972.001973.0

01974.001975.0

01976.001977.0

01978.001979.0

01980.0

01981.001982.0

01983.001984.0

01985.001986.0

01987.001988.0

01989.0

01990.001991.0

01992.0

01993.001994.0

01995.001996.0

01997.001998.0

01999.002000.0

02001.002002.0

02003.0

02004.002005.0

02006.002007.0

0

Torshavn AT 0.79 -0.53 -1.10 1.92 -0.16 -0.34 0.03 0.22 -0.16 2.11 1.54 0.98 -0.53 0.03 0.79 -0.72 -0.53 -0.16 -0.34 -0.72 -0.91 0.60 1.35 -0.53   -0.16 0.60 -0.16 -0.72 -2.04 -0.16 -1.29   -0.72 0.98 -1.10 -0.34 0.60 0.22 0.41 1.73 1.92 0.98 -0.53 -0.72 -1.29 -1.48 1.35 0.41 -0.16 0.22 0.22 1.73 2.30 1.54 0.65 1.89 1.26

Jan Mayen AT 1.54 -0.15 0.41 0.97 0.30 -0.60 0.41 0.97 1.20 0.19 1.76 0.64 -0.04 -0.37 -0.71 -1.05 -1.50 -1.72 -3.64 -2.51 -0.71 -1.84 0.52 -1.72 1.31 -0.94 0.86 -0.71 -0.94 -0.60 0.07 -1.16 -0.94 -0.60 1.76 -0.49 0.07 -0.26 -1.72 -0.49 1.09 1.20 0.64 0.64 0.86 0.30 0.19 -0.15 0.52 1.65 0.86 0.52 2.32 1.31 1.87 1.65 1.99 1.37

Bergen AT 0.25 0.05 -1.79 1.35 -0.22 -1.03 -1.19 -0.19 -0.66 0.99 0.33 0.59 -1.39 -0.97 -0.66 -1.08 -1.59 -0.22 -0.59 -0.72 -1.24 -0.03 -0.03 -0.68 1.22 0.56 -0.64 -0.61 -0.83 -2.37 -0.28 -1.41 0.62 0.03 0.47   -1.31    0.98 1.68 0.43 1.06 -0.53 -0.41 -0.19 -1.23 0.87 -0.30 1.29 1.64  1.53 1.53 1.25 0.89 2.46 0.98

Bodø AT 0.89 -0.77 -1.53 1.65 0.29 -2.90 -1.38 -0.47 -1.23 0.74 0.14 0.89 -1.23 0.14 0.59 -1.38 -2.75 0.14 -1.53 -0.17 -0.62 -0.77 1.65 -0.77 1.35 -0.32 -1.08 -0.93 -1.08 -0.47 0.14 -1.99 -0.32 -0.32 0.44 -1.68 -1.23 -1.38 -0.32 0.89 1.35 0.89 0.89 0.74 0.14 -0.17 0.29 0.89 0.89 1.05 1.20 -0.47 1.05 0.89 1.35 1.35 1.50 1.46

Nor Sea Air T ER40                -0.08 1.89 2.10 1.16 -1.38 0.77 0.22 -1.28 -1.27 -0.12 -1.33 0.03 -0.57 -0.17 2.20 -0.73 1.80 -0.58 0.42 -1.13 -1.37 -0.72 -0.29 -1.56 -0.05 -1.11 1.06 -0.94 -0.42 -0.04 0.13 0.89 1.81 0.96 0.75 -0.21 0.22 -0.80 -1.13 0.22 0.78 0.99 1.12 0.06           

Bear Island AT 1.25 -1.05 -0.20 0.48 1.68 -0.28 1.25 1.00 0.14 0.65 0.40 -0.11 -2.08 -2.50 0.65 -1.31 -1.74 -0.71 -3.19 -0.11 -0.71 -1.74 1.68 0.06 1.85 -0.80 0.91 -0.88 -1.56 -0.20 -0.71 -0.88 -0.63 0.06 1.51 -0.03 -0.03 -0.80 -1.74 -0.28 1.34 1.00 0.65 -0.28 0.40 -0.54 -0.37 -0.46 -0.03 1.51 1.00 0.48 1.00 -0.46 1.51 1.68 2.45 1.85

BSW AT ER40                -1.14 0.76 0.35 0.61 -1.42 -1.01 1.09 -1.50 -2.03 -0.09 -3.21 -0.49 -0.55 -0.64 1.57 -0.05 1.64 -0.20 1.06 -0.58 -1.98 -0.57 -0.81 -1.52 0.13 0.13 1.20 -0.13 -0.26 -1.35 -1.37 1.00 1.79 0.94 0.70 -0.29 0.79 0.39 -0.39 -0.26 -0.91 1.30 1.85 0.66           

BSN AT ER40                -1.45 0.38 -0.60 -0.15 -1.59 -2.18 0.84 -1.35 -1.99 -0.87 -3.59 -0.65 -1.22 0.08 0.92 -0.40 1.13 -0.79 1.33 -0.80 -1.53 -0.99 -0.91 -1.20 -0.12 0.48 2.28 0.79 0.21 -1.41 -2.02 0.12 1.59 0.32 0.36 -0.18 0.34 0.82 0.24 -0.21 -0.45 1.75 2.13 1.33           

BSE AT ER40                -1.60 0.62 -0.98 0.23 -0.64 -2.13 0.37 -0.93 -2.32 0.40 -2.26 -0.99 -0.72 0.11 0.29 0.17 0.93 0.16 0.96 -0.61 -1.77 -1.96 -0.44 -1.37 -0.56 0.70 1.49 0.17 0.06 -1.07 -0.62 0.78 1.21 0.53 0.74 0.32 0.17 1.66 0.62 -0.53 -2.15 0.03 2.06 0.98           

Murmansk AT 0.64 0.17 -0.17 0.43 1.06 -1.11 -2.20 0.76 -0.59 0.84 0.35 1.35 -0.56 -0.33 0.27 -1.13 -2.88 1.54 -2.47 -1.31 -0.03 -1.84 0.94 0.63 1.03 1.20 -0.87 -0.37 -1.01 -1.16 -0.64 -0.91 -0.51 0.82 0.20 -1.01 -0.55 -1.51 0.00 2.00 0.59 0.80 0.37 0.53 0.37 0.97 0.24 0.06 -1.89 -0.14 1.65 0.34 -0.14 0.86 1.28 2.10 0.64 1.31

Barents summer open water                                         0.37 -0.61 1.41 -0.50 -0.87 -0.48 -0.48 -0.72 -0.37 0.94 -0.43 -0.46 -1.20 0.36 2.80 1.48 -0.14 -0.80 -1.25 -1.25 0.43 -0.52 -0.31 -1.06 0.76 0.21 1.06 -0.10 -0.57 1.86 0.80 2.99 0.42 -0.86 2.57 1.16 3.12 

T Svinøy                                                         -0.83 -1.74 -0.66 0.12 0.42 1.12 -0.25 -1.24 -0.07 -0.94 -1.66 -0.15 0.65 -0.14 -0.92 -0.80 -1.18 0.18 -1.26 0.92 0.69 -0.51 0.79 0.02 2.13 1.32 1.52 0.73 1.75 1.45

T Gimsøy                                                         -1.64 -0.71 -0.55 -0.58 -0.92 1.00 -0.22 -0.98 -0.37 -1.31 -0.63 1.21 1.71 -0.25 -0.10 -0.27  0.62 -2.32 0.27 0.23 0.87 -0.70 0.36    1.46 1.21 2.61 1.30

Nor Sea Soda T                  0.07 3.06 3.15 0.04 1.10 0.10 -0.17 -0.25 0.13 -1.19 0.98 0.07 0.09 1.11 -0.14 1.75 -0.67 -0.88 -0.82 -0.37 -1.29 0.32 -1.13 -1.50 -1.46 -0.06 0.23 -1.25 -0.01 1.50 -0.49 2.11 1.01 0.67 0.16 -0.15 -0.81 -0.85 -0.33 1.11 1.32 0.84 1.01 3.65 3.41       

FUGLØYA - BJØRNØYA T                                                      -1.46 -2.05 -1.94 -0.69 -1.34 -0.16 0.96 0.37 -0.46 -1.39 -0.70 -0.75 0.59 1.35 1.09 0.73 0.40 0.09 0.67 -0.47 -0.54 0.09 1.16 0.74 0.41 0.94 0.74 1.40 1.53 2.23 2.01

VARDØ-N T                                                       -0.69 -1.72 -1.67 -0.53 -1.17 -0.93 1.15 0.21 -0.20 -1.07 -0.95 -0.39 0.57 1.41 1.13 1.05 0.72 0.50 0.76 -1.04 -0.84 -0.76 1.34 0.83 1.03 0.52 0.34 1.04 2.03 2.59 2.66

Kola T 1.66 1.07 0.51 -0.27 1.70 0.62 -0.78 0.37 -0.64 0.92 0.92 0.37 0.27 -1.05 0.33 -0.27 -2.24 -0.16 -0.64 -0.60 0.49 -0.82 0.27 0.94 0.12 0.96 0.39 -0.70 -1.85 -2.11 -0.62 -1.83 -0.53 1.27 0.33 -0.49 -0.55 -1.01 -0.35 1.07 1.33 1.21 1.31 0.27 -0.16 0.84 -0.35 -0.76 -0.57 0.64 1.46 1.15 1.01 0.47 1.79 1.91 2.38 2.18

BSW Soda T                  -0.35 0.78 0.98 -0.70 -1.12 0.23 -0.61 -1.11 -0.05 -1.58 -0.61 0.09 -1.07 1.07 1.39 1.29 0.57 -0.13 -0.86 -1.88 -1.36 -0.24 -0.81 -1.43 0.11 0.43 -0.22 -0.70 -1.04 -0.53 0.25 1.58 0.90 1.08 0.39 -0.27 -0.60 -1.11 -0.41 0.39 1.57 1.65 1.41 1.24 0.37       

T Sørkapp                                                         -1.82 -1.68 0.19 -0.86 -0.64 0.36 0.48 -0.02 -1.74 -1.52 -1.52 -0.44 1.07 1.60 0.93 0.61 0.69 1.47 -0.50 -0.20 -0.35 0.15 -0.21 0.38 -0.07   0.62 1.41 1.60 0.77

BSN Soda T                  -0.93 1.20 0.65 -1.41 -1.29 -0.62 -1.19 -1.04 -0.54 -1.39 -1.48 0.32 -0.47 0.82 1.19 1.52 1.02 0.29 -0.64 -1.11 -0.20 -1.08 -0.84 -2.32 -0.50 1.11 0.17 -0.14 -0.91 -1.27 -0.37 1.95 0.08 1.26 1.32 -0.75 -0.22 -0.93 -0.47 -0.14 0.67 0.94 1.36 0.59 -0.40       

BSE Soda T                  0.23 1.75 0.45 -0.78 -1.04 -0.18 0.70 -1.38 0.41 -0.59 -1.70 0.74 -0.66 0.10 1.29 1.00 1.20 0.78 0.36 -1.79 -1.34 -1.17 -1.23 -1.79 0.08 0.72 0.19 -0.25 -0.99 -0.39 0.41 1.68 0.55 0.05 1.68 0.01 0.52 -0.40 -0.82 -0.80 -0.62 1.62 1.11 -0.20 0.19       

S Svinøy                                                         -2.57 -1.96 -0.78 0.21 0.28 1.07 0.30 -0.45 0.26 -0.43 -1.03 -0.38 0.74 0.15 -0.34 -1.23 -1.38 0.21 -1.00 0.46 0.79 0.01 0.41 0.03 0.96 1.27 1.45 1.50 1.47 1.16

S Gimsøy                                                         -1.09 -2.72 -0.79 0.51 -1.12 -0.27 1.09 -0.18 1.39 -0.88 -0.61 -0.85 1.15 0.54 0.21 -0.12  0.03 -1.18 -0.39 -0.27 0.42 -0.33 -0.03    1.00 1.96 2.54 1.15

Nor Sea Soda S                  0.97 1.04 2.17 1.59 1.21 1.14 0.60 -0.47 1.17 0.72 0.63 1.10 1.77 1.39 0.50 -0.24 0.32 -0.55 -1.32 -2.20 -0.73 -2.03 -0.16 0.89 0.60 0.25 0.04 0.56 0.06 0.81 -0.60 -1.18 -0.83 0.42 -0.42 0.11 0.04 -0.35 0.10 -0.78 1.87 1.67 0.72 0.25 0.81       

FUGLØYA - BJØRNØYA S                                                       -1.75 -2.65 -2.36 -0.84 -0.44 0.12 0.34 0.75 1.02 0.42 -0.04 -0.29 -0.65 1.11 1.13 0.34 0.75 -0.33 -0.44 -0.69 -0.21 0.01 0.72 0.29 0.18 0.48 0.90 1.80 1.77 2.29 1.90

VARDØ-N S                                                       -0.69 -1.97 -2.58 -1.77 -0.89 -0.20 0.63 0.40 1.14 0.62 0.34 -0.06 -0.92 0.42 1.14 0.55 0.89 0.20 -0.45 -1.04 0.64 -0.46 -0.28 0.85 0.32 0.92 0.68 1.18 2.00 2.07 1.64

Kola S  1.20 1.46 2.26 -0.86 1.32 1.56 2.17 0.72 -0.23 2.65 2.56 1.32 0.23 1.17 1.47 0.52 -0.35 0.79 1.88 3.01 1.12 1.83 1.50 1.27 0.54 -0.84 1.06 -0.11 -1.06 -1.68 -0.20 -1.13 -0.88 -1.13 0.27 -0.03 0.33 -0.65 -1.81 -0.40 -0.16 0.48 0.74 1.63 -1.05 -0.28 1.53 0.33 0.00 0.17 -0.76 -0.23 1.00 2.04 1.02 1.02 0.85

BSW Soda S                  0.11 0.17 0.46 0.14 -0.18 0.69 0.27 -0.13 -0.58 -0.64 0.01 0.35 0.12 0.76 1.50 1.17 0.91 -0.28 -0.41 -1.29 -0.61 -0.77 -0.66 -0.10 -0.35 -0.95 -0.60 -0.38 -0.46 -0.21 -1.40 -1.12 -0.76 0.14 0.57 -0.29 -1.03 -0.40 0.82 1.62 2.38 2.11 2.38 2.44 1.24       

BSN Soda S                  -0.81 0.81 0.08 0.07 -0.65 0.38 0.77 0.10 -0.18 -0.84 -0.79 0.52 0.26 0.80 1.15 1.33 1.33 0.03 0.40 -0.60 1.29 0.48 1.72 0.10 -0.11 -1.20 -0.28 -0.84 -0.91 -0.74 -0.94 0.09 -0.15 -1.01 -0.93 -1.81 -1.09 -1.79 0.43 0.31 1.44 1.26 1.06 2.17 0.88       

BSE Soda S                  0.62 -0.39 0.12 -0.10 0.10 0.91 0.96 -1.08 0.99 0.30 -0.58 1.10 0.94 1.05 1.15 0.71 2.15 1.14 0.49 -1.37 -1.18 -1.44 0.11 -0.58 0.44 -0.01 -0.85 -0.77 -0.96 0.13 0.38 -0.76 -0.29 -0.29 -1.25 0.18 0.98 0.00 0.01 -1.97 -0.03 1.90 1.52 0.99 0.87       

Normalized CLIMATE ANOMALIES

INDEX 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

   

NUUK 0.80 0.51 1.09 0.43 0.57 1.32 0.18 0.98 1.48 0.72 1.60 0.59 1.41 1.09 0.64 1.61 1.17 -0.15 0.72 0.63 0.32 -0.37 -1.10 0.46 0.44 0.37 0.10 1.63 0.57 0.91 1.07 0.49 -0.93 -1.89 -2.20 1.77 0.41 0.27 0.73 -1.18 -0.54 -0.11 -1.47 -1.68 -0.47 0.03 0.77 0.42 0.61 0.06 0.82 1.33 0.56 1.91 1.10 1.67 1.26 1.04

W. GREENLAND ER40 AT                1.26 0.17 1.16 0.69 1.24 1.07 0.54 1.37 1.14 -0.31 0.84 0.36 0.36 -0.98 -1.10 0.28 0.06 0.37 0.27 1.30 0.79 1.32 1.27 0.75 -1.91 -1.76 -1.07 1.30 0.36 0.37 0.77 -1.14 -0.84 0.12 -1.56 -1.16 -0.28 0.22 1.18 0.63 0.41 0.38 0.43 1.16           

IQUALUIT 0.36 0.16 0.78 0.18 0.17 1.92 -0.03 -0.06 1.02 -0.04 1.10 -0.08 0.18 0.54 -0.36 0.48 1.25 -0.47 0.61 1.06 0.21 0.34 -1.96 0.23 -0.52 0.22 -0.60 1.65 -0.98 0.29 1.04 1.92 -0.55 -1.27 -0.81 1.64 -0.40 -0.43 0.29 -0.79 -0.91 -0.15 -1.48 -1.54 0.01 1.02 1.00 0.72 0.58 0.53 0.91 1.05 0.29 1.31 0.54 1.40 1.98 0.58

LABRADOR SEA ER40 AT                1.27 0.10 1.10 0.60 0.87 0.83 0.54 1.43 1.52 0.08 0.95 0.76 0.26 -0.59 -1.90 0.39 0.02 0.45 -0.06 1.07 0.56 1.21 1.14 1.24 -1.50 -1.69 -1.19 0.70 0.26 0.42 0.70 -0.72 -1.35 -0.45 -1.26 -1.11 -0.05 0.54 1.28 0.92 0.98 0.79 0.56 1.41           

CARTWRIGHT 0.24 1.27 1.72 0.81 0.42 1.50 0.22 -0.05 1.48 0.62 1.50 0.97 0.00 0.30 0.01 0.17 1.80 0.38 0.51 1.40 0.66 0.40 -2.32 0.71 -1.05 -0.54 -0.51 1.19 -0.63 1.05 0.36 1.75 -1.01 -0.11 -0.71 -0.19 -0.58 1.04 0.14 -0.16 -0.94 -1.30 -1.05 -1.01 -0.17 0.20 1.12 0.12 1.23 1.82 1.13 1.22 0.18 1.01 1.79 1.59 2.56 0.57

LABRADOR SHELF ER40 AT                1.20 -0.10 0.82 0.28 0.32 0.55 0.13 1.23 1.32 0.08 1.03 0.87 0.04 -0.59 -2.46 0.21 -0.22 0.27 -0.21 0.86 0.42 1.22 1.09 1.74 -1.28 -1.18 -0.73 0.58 0.15 0.72 0.42 -0.33 -1.33 -0.72 -1.24 -1.12 0.17 0.52 1.44 0.45 1.16 1.35 0.80 1.45           

NE NFLD SHELF ER40 AT                0.63 -0.96 1.07 0.42 0.72 0.07 0.01 1.06 1.73 0.86 0.51 1.45 0.93 0.73 -2.50 0.03 -0.94 0.00 -0.11 0.60 0.39 1.36 0.56 2.05 -0.35 0.04 -0.12 -0.58 -0.23 0.92 0.56 0.26 -1.06 -1.16 -1.71 -1.19 -0.21 0.00 1.27 -0.08 1.47 2.26 1.50 1.72           

ST JOHN'S -0.42 1.88 1.44 1.09 0.74 -0.26 0.04 -0.72 1.20 -1.01 0.87 0.42 -0.18 -0.09 -0.74 -0.26 1.13 1.09 -0.41 1.09 1.01 0.92 -1.31 0.33 -1.19 -0.88 0.35 0.22 -0.74 0.81 -0.82 1.53 -0.58 0.98 0.66 -1.31 -0.60 -0.12 0.68 -0.19 -0.07 -1.02 -1.39 -1.14 -0.03 -0.33 0.78 -0.69 1.13 2.51 1.55 0.78 0.07 0.88 1.11 1.26 2.19 0.40

GRAND BANKS ER40 AT                1.08 -0.79 1.43 0.97 0.96 0.46 -0.03 0.81 2.01 2.00 0.50 2.11 1.82 1.39 -0.88 0.34 -0.29 -0.18 0.67 0.92 0.55 1.28 0.31 2.22 -0.42 0.73 0.26 -1.59 -1.01 0.05 0.55 -0.19 -1.10 -1.38 -1.98 -1.34 -0.26 -0.34 0.65 -0.26 1.29 2.52 1.35 0.99           

NL SEA ICE                           0.87 1.21 1.45 2.16 0.93 0.92 1.88 0.77 0.47 -1.69 -1.10 -0.65 -0.04 0.17 0.88 1.06 1.04 0.77 1.41 0.65 -0.59 -1.61 -1.67 0.11 0.52 0.53 0.07 -0.93 -1.36 -1.07 -1.39 -0.85 0.29 1.35 0.58 0.99 1.21 0.88 1.41 1.01 0.61 1.98 1.44 1.95 1.11

ICEBERGS 0.44 1.09 1.08 1.02 0.65 1.02 0.99 -0.25 1.11 0.10 0.73 0.94 0.93 1.07 0.57 1.00 1.11 0.46 0.77 1.03 0.98 1.00 -1.21 -0.13 -0.92 0.96 0.89 1.07 1.00 0.88 1.07 1.01 0.83 -0.87 -2.11 -0.44 0.81 0.64 0.83 0.67 -0.05 -1.77 -0.17 -1.45 -1.47 -0.98 0.22 -0.37 -0.91 1.07 -0.12 0.98 -0.17 -0.25 0.72 1.09 1.11 0.63

ST. PIERRE BANK BT -0.46 0.64 1.84 -0.84 1.30 -1.16 -1.99 -0.54 1.29 -1.51 -0.51 -0.13 1.34 0.66 0.39 -0.75 0.00 -0.23 2.05 1.41 0.23 -0.38 -0.12 -0.55 0.55 -0.54 2.47 -0.26 1.61 0.40 0.28 0.85 -0.18 1.42 2.07 -1.42 -0.42 -0.78 0.87 -0.55 -1.26 0.20 -0.47 -0.69 -1.78 -1.07 -0.21 -0.21 -0.61 0.67 0.70 -0.53 -0.62 -1.11 1.29 2.91 1.70 -0.70

S27 SURFACE T -0.15 1.13 1.16 0.37 -0.92 -1.73 -0.14 -1.57 0.52 -0.84 0.40 0.97 -0.07 -0.03 -1.10 -0.46 0.14 1.33 -0.20 0.43 1.84 1.00 -1.22 -0.61 -1.08 -0.88 -0.10 -0.44 -0.86 1.05 -0.80 1.48 0.37 1.21 -0.61 -1.26 -0.33 -0.12 0.49 -0.06 0.05 -2.49 -1.40 -1.37 0.32 -0.60 0.32 -0.39 0.86 1.81 1.15 0.92 -0.08 1.34 2.00 2.00 3.22 0.43

S27 BOTTOM T -1.11 1.01 1.06 1.05 0.58 0.75 0.77 -0.03 1.10 -0.60 1.19 -0.10 1.38 0.85 -0.03 1.03 4.07 0.91 2.32 1.73 1.51 0.68 -0.56 -1.51 -1.49 0.28 0.55 0.08 0.94 1.32 1.14 1.13 0.57 -0.75 -0.76 -1.40 -0.11 0.04 0.02 -0.19 -0.76 -1.42 -0.95 -1.37 -1.16 -0.38 1.24 0.83 1.36 1.43 1.31 1.50 0.60 0.63 2.95 2.65 2.70 1.23

S27 AGERAGED T 0.31 1.92 0.90 2.83 0.14 1.27 1.28 -1.10 2.47 0.59 0.52 0.79 1.21 1.21 0.09 0.63 2.32 1.27 2.73 1.90 1.68 0.87 -0.74 -0.76 -1.19 0.46 0.83 -0.23 0.89 0.81 -0.14 1.33 1.47 0.33 -1.10 -1.15 0.25 -0.10 -0.14 0.41 -0.13 -2.46 -0.69 -1.04 0.16 -0.40 2.47 -0.05 -0.05 1.18 1.14 1.25 0.68 1.18 2.95 1.98 3.27 0.01

FLEMISH CAP AVG T   1.41 2.01 1.24 0.10 0.03 0.32 0.03 1.29 0.45 1.14 1.09 1.39 0.94 0.84 1.76 3.10 2.01 1.36 0.99 1.66 0.72 -0.62 -0.77 -0.39 0.08 1.19 0.50 1.24 1.59 0.75 1.19   -0.05 -0.20 -1.16 -0.32 -0.34 0.99 -0.64 -0.64 -1.31 -1.58 -2.47   -0.67 0.18 -0.12 0.82 1.59 0.45   -0.20 2.41 1.29 1.19 2.60 

FLEMISH CAP SURFACE T -1.27 1.06 1.42 0.13 0.19 0.08 -0.30 -0.62 0.50 -0.16 0.36 -0.41 0.03 -0.07 -0.05 0.38 2.07 1.23 0.54 0.66 0.72 0.33 -0.58 -0.29 -1.65 0.50 -0.87 -0.29 0.48 1.30 0.26 0.91 -0.48 1.02 -0.11 -2.17 -0.16 0.89 0.62 0.01 -0.51 -1.30 -1.54 -1.66 -0.73 0.01 0.17 0.32 2.50 0.13 0.85 0.48 -0.66 0.20 0.53 1.57 2.29 0.44

FLEMISH CAP BOTTOM T -0.44 0.60 0.32 0.33 0.92 1.22 0.11 -0.54 0.90 -0.45 0.69 0.29 1.28 0.98 1.22 1.27 3.36 1.66 3.30 0.75 1.31 0.74 -0.38 -0.98 -0.85 -0.01 0.23 -0.74 0.84 1.01 0.39 0.27 -0.27 1.21 1.11 -1.24 -0.89 -0.20 0.96 -0.79 -2.30 -1.02 -0.66 -0.41 -2.59 -0.51 -0.48 -0.11 0.82 1.78 0.36 -0.16 0.11 0.84 1.08 2.28 1.40 0.18

FLEMISH CAP CIL   0.90 0.94 1.86 -0.08 -0.28 0.58 -0.52 1.78 1.47 0.94 -0.20 3.08 0.92 0.86 1.09 4.81 1.62 2.70 1.49 2.80 0.35 -1.36 -1.28 -0.79 0.74 1.86 0.33 0.88 1.17 1.05 0.94     -1.44 -0.81 -1.13 0.48 -0.26 -0.83 0.03 -1.68 -0.62 -1.26 0.01 -0.26 0.80 -0.26 0.72 1.37 1.25 0.54 0.80 0.41 2.72 1.06 2.70 0.15

GRAND BANKS SODA T                   -0.11 1.12 0.94 -0.20 0.26 -1.55 -0.50 0.03 1.79 -0.33 1.78 1.56 1.02 0.31 -0.24 -0.24 -1.09 -0.41 -0.13 -0.10 1.34 -0.50 1.96 -0.17 1.35 -0.28 -1.80 -0.45 0.58 0.87 0.78 -0.36 -2.15 -1.56 -1.12 -0.18 -0.62 0.21 -0.43 1.32 1.49 0.61 0.91 -0.19 1.00       

SEAL ISLAND AVG T 1.13 1.13 -0.17 0.56 -0.86 0.39 -0.07 0.00 0.02 0.83 1.61 1.93 1.69 2.30 1.22 3.28     0.68 0.86 0.95 1.13 -0.44 0.91 1.39 0.46 0.29 0.02 1.17 0.10 -0.27 0.17     -1.96 -0.64 0.49 -0.91 0.20   -1.74 -1.64 -1.39 -1.32 -0.76 0.66 0.32 1.10 0.95 1.39 0.29 0.54 0.86 1.22 2.32 1.59 1.74 1.30

BONAVISTA AVG T -0.57 -0.05 -0.52 -0.07 0.09 0.09 0.71 0.82 1.06 0.40 0.73 0.89 0.78 0.82 0.82 3.30       0.21 0.45 0.75 -0.85 -0.47 0.49 0.56 0.78 0.47 1.27 0.73   0.59   -1.02 -1.94 -1.47 0.52 0.97 0.30 0.45 -1.68 -1.61 -1.30 -0.97 -0.83 0.30 -0.10 1.01 0.87 1.41 0.75 0.56 0.66 0.99 2.48 2.05 2.33 1.32

SEAL ISLAND CIL 0.23 0.85 0.06 0.21 -0.68 0.95 -0.19 -0.68 0.28 -0.32 -0.20 0.97 0.60 0.77 0.66 2.59     -0.57 -0.26 0.44 0.15 -2.01 -0.43 1.22 -0.34 -0.10 0.21 1.93 0.25 0.34 0.53 -0.61 -0.79 -1.54 -0.70 0.95 -0.51 0.47   -1.26 -1.36 -0.55 -0.71 -0.61 1.22 0.51 1.46 0.63 1.91 -0.26 0.52 1.07 0.43 1.41 1.09 0.65 0.81

BONAVISTA CIL -0.02 0.52 -0.39 0.74 0.05 -0.03 1.06 1.37 0.91 0.38 0.64 1.10 1.43 1.18 0.85 1.77       0.09 -0.02 0.15 -1.65 -0.84 1.09 0.16 0.08 0.83 1.48 0.54 0.00 0.56   -1.02 -2.37 -0.87 0.90 1.03 -0.07 -0.02 -1.66 -1.78 0.01 -0.55 0.03 0.99 0.49 1.03 0.35 0.93 0.17 1.24 0.98 0.58 1.72 1.41 1.67 1.03

NE NFLD SHELF SODA T                   -0.42 0.59 -0.21 -1.22 -0.31 -1.67 -0.76 1.04 1.78 -0.02 1.33 1.69 1.45 -1.35 0.70 -1.49 -0.56 0.22 -0.93 -0.10 1.29 0.27 2.03 0.16 0.34 -0.09 -0.80 0.82 0.76 0.32 1.15 -0.66 -1.91 -2.02 -1.48 -0.06 -0.25 0.09 0.23 0.50 0.39 0.96 0.60 -0.35 0.65       

HAMILTON BANK SURFACE T 0.50 1.65 0.74 -0.15 1.45 -1.67 -0.86 -1.16 0.12 -0.21 -0.06 -3.72 -0.89 -0.99 -0.29 1.52 1.68 1.18 0.39 0.82 -2.63 0.26 -2.44 0.45 -0.11 1.32 0.69 -0.96 -0.20 0.53 1.13 0.12 -0.33 -0.66 -1.65 -0.81 0.10 -1.12 -0.18 -0.39 0.38 -0.87 -0.56 0.34 0.15 -0.19 -0.52 0.12 2.82 -0.01 1.75 0.05 -0.23 2.50 2.03 2.73 1.43 0.67

HAMILTON BANK BOTTOM T -0.63 1.14 -0.87 0.34 -1.23 -0.09 -0.13 -0.73 0.47 -0.47 -0.10 1.42 0.78 0.56 1.30 2.94 1.10 0.92 -0.36 0.22 0.20 -0.03 -0.22 -0.53 0.43 0.90 0.38 2.70 0.91 0.58 -0.23 -0.10 -0.98 -1.65 -0.95 -1.32 -0.08 -0.98 0.33 -0.66 -1.19 -0.45 -0.96 -1.29 -0.64 0.49 0.67 1.71 0.65 1.56 0.28 1.79 1.72 1.19 2.25 1.86 0.66 1.82

LABRADOR SHELF SODA T                   -0.01 0.48 0.91 0.66 -0.76 -0.24 0.57 0.88 0.91 0.60 -0.12 -0.55 -1.10 -2.01 0.49 0.65 0.43 -0.23 0.97 -0.10 1.50 0.76 0.44 -0.79 -1.10 -2.24 -0.85 0.11 0.03 -0.11 0.42 0.00 -1.46 -1.19 -0.26 0.42 0.81 -0.42 1.35 1.78 0.85 0.87 1.14 0.53 2.12       

LABRADOR SEA SODA T                   0.93 1.24 1.61 1.74 1.02 0.80 1.84 1.93 1.05 0.69 0.17 -0.23 -0.21 -1.17 0.23 0.89 0.73 0.19 1.20 0.60 1.21 1.07 0.61 -1.05 -1.67 -2.37 -0.90 0.23 0.08 0.59 -0.36 -1.25 -0.75 -1.08 -1.20 0.04 0.06 0.55 1.62 1.65 0.23 0.27 1.76 1.34 2.33       

W. GREENLAND SODA T                   0.78 1.38 1.40 1.36 0.73 0.65 1.44 1.32 -0.16 -1.13 -0.82 -1.37 -0.64 -1.02 0.10 1.04 0.05 -0.43 2.08 0.39 1.60 1.43 0.13 -1.24 -2.32 -2.01 0.42 0.45 0.25 0.43 -1.15 -0.79 -0.05 -0.79 -0.50 0.40 -0.39 0.42 0.81 1.26 0.06 0.02 1.85 0.31 2.64       

S27 SURFACE S 0.50 -0.25 -0.69 0.32 1.09 0.48 0.84 -0.33 -0.05 0.77 0.13 0.67 0.43 1.01 1.24 1.34 1.12 0.77 0.65 0.46 -1.48 -0.38 0.43 -0.63 -0.80 0.38 1.28 0.18 0.83 0.91 0.79 0.39 1.23 -1.23 -2.28 0.25 0.71 0.76 1.09 1.65 1.48 -1.85 -0.96 -0.04 -0.33 -1.82 0.22 -0.26 -0.29 -0.37 -0.23 -0.56 1.06 1.01 0.58 0.44 0.65 0.00

S27 AVERAGED S 0.64 0.74 -0.58 0.12 1.03 -0.54 1.63 -0.43 -1.08 -0.45 -0.14 0.49 0.60 0.93 0.78 1.77 1.47 1.30 -0.34 0.32 -1.99 -1.41 -0.95 -0.91 -1.82 0.29 0.52 -0.52 -0.16 0.58 0.37 0.40 1.40 -0.62 -1.51 -0.08 0.41 1.04 1.78 1.04 1.82 -0.88 -1.34 -0.38 -1.14 -1.72 -0.07 0.32 0.32 -0.44 0.43 -0.88 1.15 0.52 0.93 0.99 0.91 0.97

FLEMISH CAP AVG S   -0.83 0.15 0.34 1.02 0.44 1.61 1.71 -0.73 0.83 0.34 0.83 1.12 0.73 1.80 2.29 2.39 0.93 -0.05 0.83 0.24 -1.71 -1.12 -1.32 0.34 0.83 -0.93 0.34 0.83 1.22 0.00 0.44   -1.41 -2.39 -1.12 -0.05   1.02 1.02   -0.15 0.05 0.15   0.54 0.34 1.12 0.73 0.83 -0.05   1.32 2.29 1.12 -0.44 1.61 

GRAND BANKS SODA S                   0.56 -1.07 -0.28 0.37 0.74 1.42 1.19 2.38 -0.18 1.09 0.57 -2.89 -0.76 0.90 -1.08 -0.32 -0.07 1.01 0.00 0.71 1.04 0.67 -0.21 2.00 -1.01 -1.98 0.61 0.10 1.13 0.71 1.62 1.73 -1.36 -0.91 -0.47 -0.91 -1.32 0.19 -0.46 -0.50 -0.52 -0.53 -0.21 0.97 0.73       

SEAL ISLAND AVG S 1.05 1.05 -0.06 0.60 -0.12 0.92 0.60 0.66 -0.77 0.14 0.47 1.18 1.05 0.79 0.86 1.51     2.36 0.53 -0.51 -0.19 -2.14 -0.25 0.01 0.21 -0.25 -1.10 0.27 0.01 0.27 3.33     -1.23 -0.06 0.60 0.27 -0.32   -0.90 -1.03 1.12 -0.32 -0.58 0.86 -0.32 0.92 0.40 0.99 -0.58 0.40 1.31 0.21 1.51 0.86 0.66 0.34

BONAVISTA AVG S 1.39 0.17 0.04 0.53 1.63 -0.08 1.63 2.24 0.65 -0.08 0.53 0.78 2.24 2.12 2.24 3.22       -1.91 -1.79 -1.67 -0.69 -0.20 0.53 0.41 -0.93 -0.20 1.26 0.17   0.04   -0.81 -1.67 -0.81 1.02 2.00 0.41 0.78 -1.18 -1.18 -0.32 0.04 0.53 1.63 -1.54 1.51 0.04 0.41 0.41 0.29 2.61 1.14 2.49 1.51 2.49 1.63

NE NFLD SHELF SODA S                   1.14 0.11 -0.93 0.12 0.15 1.12 1.61 3.01 1.78 0.99 -0.78 -1.41 -0.56 1.14 0.17 2.49 -0.35 1.84 2.08 0.04 1.42 -0.31 -1.22 0.24 -0.67 -0.23 -0.38 -0.48 -0.01 -0.18 0.91 0.56 0.61 -1.14 0.15 -1.36 -0.75 -0.70 -0.85 -0.72 -1.26 -0.45 0.13 0.42 -0.47       

LABRADOR SHELF SODA S                   0.83 0.06 1.54 0.45 0.08 0.56 0.29 -0.09 0.30 -0.91 -0.98 -1.35 -0.77 -0.86 0.03 1.64 0.65 1.38 1.96 1.36 1.71 0.11 -0.14 -0.67 -1.56 -1.92 -0.24 -0.56 -0.57 -0.92 0.19 -1.06 -0.65 -0.39 -1.42 0.16 0.01 -0.10 0.55 0.94 0.93 0.23 0.65 1.68 0.68       

LABRADOR SEA SODA S                   0.27 0.75 1.96 1.93 1.60 0.96 1.05 1.16 0.78 -0.10 -0.78 -1.14 -0.67 -0.26 0.33 0.78 0.02 0.61 0.92 1.29 0.34 0.73 -0.43 -1.55 -1.96 -2.54 -1.07 -0.27 -0.60 -0.06 0.39 -0.88 0.79 0.27 -1.57 -0.06 0.35 0.89 1.40 1.26 0.69 0.86 1.58 1.83 2.34       

W. GREENLAND SODA S                   1.70 3.66 2.92 1.84 2.04 -0.18 0.15 0.50 -0.74 -3.34 -2.23 -2.53 -2.37 -0.91 0.48 0.98 -1.42 -1.03 0.03 0.43 1.61 0.97 -0.76 0.08 -1.44 -0.80 -0.15 -0.35 -0.42 0.14 0.90 -0.85 1.46 0.43 -1.34 1.23 0.08 0.16 -0.02 0.25 1.01 1.62 2.52 1.98 3.41       

No

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Lab

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or

•Composite Climate Indices based on 40 time series of meteorological, sea-ice and oceanographic conditions •Prior to late 1990s out-of-phase relationship, but since then they have been in phase.

•Due to changes in atmospheric pressure patterns, weakening of NAO forcing

Drin

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., a

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ted

20-Year Running Mean of Correlation Coefficients of Composite Climate Indices for

Labrador Sea and Norwegian/Barents Seas

Last Year of 20-yr time series

Through 2000s negative correlation between 2 regions declining rapidly as both regions warming.

Comparison of Composite Climate Indices

20-year Running Mean of Correlation Coefficients of 20-year Running Mean of Correlation Coefficients of Composite Climate Indices with NAO Composite Climate Indices with NAO

Last Year of 20-yr time series

NAO shows significant weakening of correlation with Labrador region although strengthening in NE Atlantic.

ConclusionsConclusions1. NAO winter anomalies generally positive in 2000-2009, 4th highest decadal anomaly on record (14 decades) but relatively low within decade variability.

2. Mean of the decade shows most of the SLP action in the Northeast Atlantic.

3. Temperatures (salinities and ice) show similarity on both sides of the Atlantic, opposite to usual NAO response.

4. NAO index show weakening correlations with NW Atlantic climate index suggesting weakening of NAO forcing during 2000-2009.

Thank You for Your Attention!