IDENTIFIKASI KOMODITAS UNGGULAN/KUNCI & ASSET BAGI

PENGEMBANGAN EKONOMI KOMUNITAS

R WIDODO D PRAMONO

MPKD-UGM

TUJUAN STRATEGIS PEL

• MENGURANGI KEMISKINAN

• MENGURANGI PENGANGGURAN

• MENGHINDARKAN STAGNASI

OPTIMALISASASI SUMBER DAYA LOKAL (TIDAK HANYA SDA)

PENGEMBANGAN (PRODUKSI & PASAR) “KOMODITAS/PRODUK”

Source of Generator for Local/Regional Economic Development

• Internal Base– Internal growth of demand

of good and services • Quantity (pop growth, per-

capita consumption)• Diversity

– Internal growth of supply• Quantity (extensification,

intensification trhough skill & technology improvement

• Diversification (creativity)

• External (export Base)– Increase productivity-

Production Surplus of internal & external demanded product

– Gain of Export-import

• Does export always generates LE/Nat Ec growth?

• When does export benefits local/nation?

Komoditas (Product) PROSPEKTIFuntuk PEL =KOMODITI KUNCI

• adalah yg memiliki posisi-peran penting (langsung atau tidak langsung/multiplier)

• bagi unit2 ekonomi (rumah tangga, usaha, lokalitas) • untuk bertahan atau berkembang • kini atau potensial di masa datang

KOMODITAS/PRODUK:

1. BAHAN BAKU

2. BARANG OLAHAN

3. PERALATAN

4. OBJEK WISATA (MISAL KAWASAN, RESTORAN, EVENT)

5. JASA-JASA (TERMASUK KNOWLEDGE)

POSISI/PERAN PENTING bagi UNIT2 EKONOMI

BAGI POSISI/PERANINDIKATOR (semakin besar

semakin prospektif)

Rumah tangga Sumber kebutuhan langsungNilai barang terkonsumsi, % dari

pengeluaran

  Sumber Pendapatan % dari income keluarga

  Sumber Pekerjaan  %/Jumlah KK terlibat

Usaha Pemicu pertumbuhan Unit usaha jumlah usaha terkait

 Memberi Efisiensi (transport, atau

pengolahan)selisih biaya produksi -

pemasaran

Lokalitas (ekonomi lokal) Sumber kebutuhan lokal % pemenuhan kebutuhan lokal

  Penyerap tenaga kerja% atau nominal tenaga kerja

terkait

 Pendapatan lokal

(PAD=tabungan/kontribusi masy) % atau nominal

  Devisa =keuntungan lokal=PDRB % atau nominal

PERAN KOMODITAS/PRODUKKini (sudah) atau (baru) potensial?

• KINI (SUDAH), INDIKATOR 2 dapat di cek dengan data statistik (sejarah) sektor/sub sektor

• POTENSIAL (INDIKATOR 2 diperkirakan dengan SIMULASI berdasar logika entrepreuner)

• SISI SUPLLY?--- DATA INVENTARSISASI INPUT• SISI DEMAND?-- DATA PASAR/KEBUTUHAN

– EKSISTING DEMAND ? (‘nampak” tetapi belum terpenuhi)– POTENSIAL DEMAND? (belum nampak…. Tetapi berdasar ‘hakekat’

manusia…. Kebutuhan “baru” dapat dikenalkan– LOKAL?– LUAR/EKSPORT?

BERKEMBANGNYA KOMODITAS

• TIDAK HANYA TERGANTUNG PADA FAKTOR PRODUKSI

• The accumulation of factors of production per se – be they knowledge, physical or human capital –cannot alone explain economic development.

• Those factors are necessary inputs in production, but they are not in themselves sufficient for economic growth to occur.

• Tetapi tergantung pada BERKEMBANGNYA TRANSAKSI/EXCHANGE= BERTEMUNYA SUPPLY & DEMAND

• Karenanya Sangat TERGANTUNG Pada ENTREPRENEURSHIP

• Entrepreneurship is ability to create economic innovation such as try to overthrow established production technique, price, and producer, and bridging supply and demand (Schumpeter 1912), .

• entrepreneurs are those who convert between spheres of exchange, attempt to construct bridging transactions" (Barth, 1967

LOGIKA ENTREPRENEURSHIP UNTUK IDENTIFIKASI KOMODITAS KUNCI utk PEL

• DGN KREATIVITAS, INOVASI, DAN KEBERANIAN BERSPEKULASI (Pramono, 2009 coming)

• MEPERTEMUKAN FAKTOR PRODUKSI UNTUK MENGEMBANGKAN KOMODITI/PRODUK (SUPPLY) DENGAN DEMAND

• Entrepreneurship is ability to create economic innovation such as try to overthrow established production technique, price, and producer, and bridging supply and demand (Schumpeter 1912), .

• entrepreneurs are those who convert between spheres of exchange, attempt to construct bridging transactions" (Barth, 1967

• entrepreneur is as “self employment with an uncertain return” (Baron and Shane 2005) • They are persons who create a new business in the face of uncertainty for the purpose of achieving profit and growth by

identifying opportunities and assembling the necessary resources to capitalize on them (Zimmerer and Scarborough 2005),

• MENGEMBANGAN INSTITUSI USAHA• Entrepreneurship proves to be an important vehicle for exploiting opportunities and stimulating growth: an increase in new

firm formation activity stimulates economic growth (Pamela Mueller 2007).• entrepreneurship as either the creation of new economic activity (Low and MacMillan, 1988; Shane and Venkataraman,

2000), often resulting in the creation of new organisations (Schumpeter,1934, p. 66; Gartner, 1989; Reynolds, 1999), or the pursuit of innovation (Schumpeter, 1934; for a review, see Wennekers and Thurik, 1999; Davidsson et al., 2001).

• DIVERSIFIKASI, “POSITIONING”, DAN EKSPANSI=MENCARI PASAR BARU• They improve regional carrying capacity through diversifying and enlarging business and therefore optimizing local assets

and increasing job opportunities (Pramono, 2009 coming) • Entrepreneurship and firm turnover play critical roles in economic dynamics and endogenous growth. (Baumol 2003,

Baumol et al. 1982)• the entrepreneurial "function . . . is [best] thought of as a propensity to take advantage of opportunities with an orientation

toward expansion." Belshaw (1965).

Terjadinya transaksi atau MUNCULNYA IDE “KOMODITAS/PRODUK”

Abundant COMMODITY/PRODUCT

Large Existing DEMAND (OTHER PLACES)

Abundant LOCAL RESOURCES For whom,

WHAT !!!!!

Large Existing DEMAND (LOCAL OR OTHER PLACES)

WHAT !!!!!LOCAL HAS: The same commodities, the same raw material, or substitution

ANALISIS BEA TRANSPORT

IDE PRODUK

IDE PRODUK

ENTREPREUNER

Kriteria pilihan Komoditas/Produk (semakin tinggi/besar, semakin favorit)

• Peluang keberhasilan/kemudahan implementasi/resiko kegagalan– Ketersediaan/akses bahan baku– Ketersediaan teknologi– Penerimaan sosial/tradisi– Kepastian pasar– Kesiapan institusi

• Skala keuntungan kegiatan ekonomi terpicu– Banyaknya unit usaha Backward-forward linkage– Serapan tenaga kerja/rumah tangga terlibat– Keuntungan (PDRB, Pendapatan rumah tangga)– Daya saing dengan produk substitusi atau dari produser lain

• Tingkat keberlanjutan– Ketersediaan/akses bahan baku– Jangkauan pasar, pesaing (termasuk barang substitusi)

SIMULASI PROSPEK PERAN KOMODITAS KUNCI BAGI PEL

• TINGKAT Perkembangan Ekonomi Lokal = VOLUME TRANSAKSI KOMODITAS KUNCI DAN KOMODITAS TERKAIT (DALAM KLUSTER)

• VOLUME TRANSAKSI = – NILAI/KUALITAS SETIAP TRANSAKSI–JUMLAH BERTEMUNYA ANTARA

SUPPLY DAN DEMAND

Kontribusi PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI– Economic Development (Growth) of the region is

• expansion production and sale (quantity)• the increase of Productivity (efficiency) • Adding value

NERACA TRANSAKSI

VOLUME PRODUKSI

KEUNTUNGAN UNIT

BEA PRODUKSI

HARGA

VOLUME PERMINTAAN

(lokal/luar)

=KONTRIBUSI PERTUMBUHAN

IDENTIFIKASI SUPPLY & DEMAND

KOMODITAS LAMA (ekspansi, Kompetisi)

KOMODITAS/ PRODUK BARU (di tingkat lokalitas) (Entry, Diversivikasi, Kompetisi)

PASAR EKSISTING

• FULFILL

• “MEREBUT” berkompetisi

• Share dari komoditas sama

• mengganti komoditas subtitusi

PASAR “KEBUTUHAN” BARU (INTRODUKSI)

KOMODITAS/ PRODUK BARU (di tingkat manapun) (Diversivikasi, Inovasi)

DEMANDSUPPLY

RAW MATERIAL (Sumber daya alam, dimiliki atau aksesible)

TEKNOLOGI/KETRAMPILAN (dimiliki atau aksesible)

INSTITUSI PRODUKSI

DATA EVALUASI PROSPEK PENGEMBANGAN KOMODITA

INPUT MATERIAL TEKNOLOGI INSTITUSI PROD JANGKAUAN STRATEGI PEMASARAN INSTITUSI123456789

SUPPLY DEMANDKARAKTER

KOMODITASNo

KESIMPULANTK RT Unit Usaha PAD PDRB /RANGKING

123456789

NoKEBERLANJUTAN

SKALA EKONOMI TERPICUEVALUASI

KEMUDAHAN

KERANGKA EVALUASI ASET bagi pengembangan KOMUNITAS

TOTASSETS =

(L + PvT + S + pInf) + IIA + (SIA + EIA) + (Ex-Im)

Commodities Abilities Circumstances Commodities (new)

input in production processor 1 Processor 2 output

COMMODITIES ABILITIES CIRCUMSTANCES

L = land pvT = private toolsS = savingpInf = public infrastructureEx = exports (income)Im = import (expenditure)

IIA = individual intangible assets

SIA = social Institutional assetsEIA = economic institutional assets

Sumber: Pramono, 2011

No ASSETS ELEMENTS ASSETS

CATEGORY

RELATED INDICATORS

1 Space (land) to stay X1

2 Space (land) to generate income X1

Land-man ownership ratio

3 transport Tools (Bike, Car, Motorcycle) X1 Vehicle-population ratio

4 Information Tools (Radio, TV, N paper) X1 TV.radio-population ratio

5 Comunication Tools (Telephone, Post) X1 Connection per head

6 Income/material for daily Necesities X1 Income per capita

7 Saving X1 Income-expenditure ratio

1 Environment Quality (Landscape, Water, Air, Built Env) X2

Water quality, air quality

2 Land Quality (Productivity) X2 Agriculture productivity

3 Availability of Public Transport Infra X2 Road length/coverage/population/ha

4 (Freedom from) Disaster*) X2 e.g. disaster frequency (e.g. fire, flood, etc)

5 Disaster Mitigation Availabilty*) X2 e.g. fireman per population

6 Quality of Public Transport Infra X2 Public bus per pop

7 Education Facilities and Support X2 Scholl per pop

8 Health Facility X2 Clinic per pop

9 Market Facilities X2 Number per km2, and m2 market place per pop

10 Access to Clean Water X2 % of Water connection to Household

11 Recreation Facility X2 Park m2 per head

12 Library X2 Number per pop, or m2 Library building per pop

13 Internet Net X2 % of Water connection to House

1 Self/CommEducation Level X3 Perception

2 Self/CommHealth Quality X3 Mortality, life expectancy

X1 = L, Pvt, S; X2=Pinf; X3 = IIA; X4=SIA; X5= EIA JENIS-JENIS ASSET

Jenis aset (lanjutan)3 Communication Skill/Ability X3 Literacy

4 Creativity/Innovation X3 Perception, or entrepreneur index

5 Strugling Spirit/Survival Power X3 perception

1 Community Membership/Kindship/Identity X4 perception

2 Trust X4 perception

3 Social Cooperation X4 Number per population

4 Solidarity X4 perception

5 Community Forum X4 frequency

1 Access to Credits X5 Perception, number of bank per population

2 Access to Job X5 Perception, un employment rate, sector heterogeneity

3 Opportunity to Set Up Business X5 Perception, sector heterogeneity

4 Opportunity to Aspirate in Public Decision X5 The present of regulation, frequency of public forum

5 Access to Material Consumption X5

6 Access to Material Input (for ec. production) X5

7 Opportunity to Product Marketing X5

Perception, Number per km2, or and m2 market place per pop

8 Health Cost X5 Perception, % of income and expenditure

9 Access to Health Insurance X5

10 Education Cost X5 Perception, % of income and expenditure

11 Access to Housing X5

12 Transport cost X5 Perception, % of income and expenditure

Alat survei Evaluasi Aset KomunitasPerception to Assets Improvement

(AIM)*) Perception on the level of Assets

to Support Functionings (LAF)

No ASSETS ELEMENTS ASSETS

CATEGORY better worse NSMD N respondent VH H UC C VC N **)

respondent

1 Space (land) to stay X1 **) **)

2 Space (land) to generate income X1 **) **)

3 transport Tools (Bike, Car, Motorcycle) X1 **) **)

n…. **) **)

n ***) ***) ***) **) **)

% **) **)

Value **) **)

Score **) **)

1

Environment Quality (Landscape, Water, Air, Built Env) X2

2 Land Quality (Productivity) X2

3 Availability of Public Transport Infra X2

n….

N****)

%*****)

Value******)

Score********)

1 Self/CommEducation Level X3 **) **)

2 Self/CommHealth Quality X3 **) **)

3 Communication Skill/Ability X3 **) **)

n… **) **)

n **) **)

% **) **)

Value **) **)

Score **) **)

1 Community Membership/Kindship/Identity X4

2 Trust X4

3 Social Cooperation X4

n…

n

%

Value

Score

1 Access to Credits X5 **) **)

2 Access to Job X5 **) **)

3 Opportunity to Set Up Bussiness X5 **) **)

n… **) **)

n **)

% **)

Value **)

Scoring Survei dan Index Perkembangan Masy (Capability Index)

Perceptual evaluation scale of assets availability and

accessibility

Perceptual evaluation scale of opportunities or constraints given

by assets to perform or create functionings

BETTER (score 2) WORSE (score 0) NSMD (not so much a Different) (score -2)

VH = Very Helpful (score 2) H = Helpful (score 1) UC = Unclear (score 0) C = Constraining (score -1) VC=Very Constraining (score -2)

LAF + ABS (LAF) (AIM – 100)%X + 800 /300 -2CEI =

Capability Index/Index

Perkembangan Masy

Notation: CI = Capability Index= the extension of freedom to

chooseLAF = The average Level of Opportunities given by

AssetsAIM = The average Level of Assets ImprovementABS = absolute value

Interpretasi IndexLAF AIM CI RANK MEANINGS, for instance 200 200 2.00 Highest

100 100 1.00

50 50 0.75

People is experiencing a perfectly happy situation.. Commodities and Circumstances optimize, even

improve the existing basic abilities and give a great opportunities to a variety of functionings

-200 200 0.67

0 100 0.67

100 0 0.67

-100 100 0.33

-50 50 0.42

The improvement of assets do not facilitate expected functionings, in fact,its constrains

0 0 0.67

50 -50 0.58

0 -100 0.67

100 -100 0.33

The situation is acceptable. Assets may not be improved, but their existance still gives opportunities

to functionings

-100 0 0.00

People are unhappy. The lack of improvement of assets may constrain the opportunities to achieve

expected functionings -100 -100 -0.33

200 -200 -0.67

-150 -150 -1.08

-200 -200 -2.00 Lowest

People are very unhappy/desperate. Commodities and Circumstances reduce the existing (basic) abilities &

constrain functionings