© OECD/IEA 2017

IEA Technology Roadmap:

Delivering sustainable bioenergy

Adam Brown

ETIP Bioenergy, 11 April 2018

© IEA 2017

Roadmap launched

IEA Bioenergy Roadmap launched on 30 November 2017 at joint IEA and

Mission Innovation Event in Ottawa

• Technology Roadmap - Delivering Sustainable Bioenergy

www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/technology-roadmap-on-bioenergy.html.

• Team effort!

© IEA 2017

The full portfolio of technologies is needed for decarbonisation

Delivering deep carbon emission reductions will require an unprecedented effort in technology innovation and diversification worldwide

Technology area contribution to global cumulative CO2 reductions

0 200 400Gt CO2 cumulative reductions in 2060

0

10

20

30

40

50

2014 2020 2030 2040 2050

GtC

O2

Efficiency 40%

Renewables 35%

Fuel switching 5%

Nuclear 6%

CCS 15%

Efficiency

40%

Renewables

35%

Fuel

switching 5%

Nuclear 6%

Efficiency 34%

Renewables 15%

Fuel switching 18%

Nuclear 1%

CCS 33%

2DS

RTS

B2DS

Global CO2 reductions by technology area

© IEA 2017

Bioenergy an essential component of IEA Low Carbon Scenarios

Bioenergy to provide some 17% of cumulative carbon savings to 2060 in the 2DS and around 22% of

additional cumulative reductions in the B2DS, including an important contribution from BECCS

Role of Bioenergy – RTS to B2DS Role of Bioenergy

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Global Emissions GT CO2

2DS - Other technologies

2DS - Bioenergy

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Global Emissions GT CO2

2DS - Other technologies

2DS - Bioenergy

B2DS - Other technologies

B2DS - Bioenergy

© IEA 2017

Strong acceleration needed between now and 2030

0

20

40

60

80

2015 2060

EJ Other

Electricity

Transport

Industry

0

20

40

60

80

2015 2030 2060

EJ Other

Electricity

Transport

Industry

Modern bioenergy in final energy consumption in 2DS

2X

3X

© IEA 2017

Modern bioenergy accounted for around half of renewables in final energy consumption in 2015, a

contribution five times greater than wind and solar PV combined. However, growth rates vary by sector.

Modern bioenergy in final energy consumption 2015 (left) and growth by sector 2008-15 (right)

Bioenergy is already a significant global energy source

0

100

200

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Sec

tor

grow

th (

inde

xed

2008

= 1

00)

Biofuels for transport Modern bioenergy for heat

Bioenergy for electricity

Modern bioenergy for heat Biofuels for transport

Bioenergy for electricity

Total: 17 EJ

© IEA 2017

Biofuels: an important option in a portfolio of transport solutions

While demand of transport services more than doubles , biofuels complement end-use efficiency and

strong growth in electricity, providing almost 30% of transport final energy demand in 2060

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

EJ

Hydrogen

Electricity

Biofuels

Other fossil

Fossil Jet Fuel

Fossil Diesel

Fossil Gasoline

Transport Fuels – 2DS

© IEA 2017

Advanced biofuels play a key role

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2015 2025 2035 2045 2055

EJ Biojet

Biodiesel - advanced

Biodiesel - conventional

Biomethane

Ethanol - advanced

Ethanol - conventional

© IEA 2017

Electricity generation in 2DS

Bio-electricity grows 7-fold and goes from 2 to 7% of electricity generation

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

TWh Biomass with CCS

Biomass

Other Renewables

Hydro

Nuclear

Natural gas

Coal

Oil

© IEA 2017

Four key actions

Need for appropriate policy frameworks

1. Promote short term deployment of mature options

2. Stimulate the development and deployment of new technologies

3. Deliver the necessary feedstock sustainably, backed by a supportive

sustainability governance system

4. Develop capacity and catalyse investment via a coordinated international

collaboration effort

© IEA 2017

• New technologies needed with good carbon performance and adapted to market roles in 2DS.

• Continued R,D and D to reduce costs and improve GHG performance of existing biofuels technologies

• Demonstrate reliable performance from existing “novel biofuels” plants

• Develop and demonstrate routes to diesel and biojet with improved costs, better C balances and GHG performance (link to RE H2 production)

• Identify potential and development paths for cost reduction

Stimulate development and deployment of new technologies

Some routes to new biofuels

© IEA 2017

Advanced biofuels cost reduction potential

Support costs to buy down costs c 100Bn$ - 0.5% of fossil fuel costs in transport

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Production(right axis)Novel biofuels costs

EJUSD/GJ

carbon costs

Costs can be reduced by

o the impact of R&D

o scale-up economies of scale

o experiential learning.

o scope for integration with other processes and leveraging/using

existing infrastructure

o adding value to co-and by-products

o Reducing financing costs

© IEA 2017

Deliver the necessary feedstock sustainably

• Deployment will need wastes, residues, forestry and energy crops

• Produced in line with sustainable resource management, forestry and agricultural

practice

• Produced with minimized impacts on land use change emissions by co-

production with food, use of under-productive land, improved production

• Supported by general effort to improve agricultural productivity and efficiency

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

MSW Residues Forestry operations Agriculture Total -Minimum Total Maximum

EJ

2DS/B2DS needs

© IEA 2017

What next?

• Influencing - Strategy for IEA Bioenergy

- Biofuture Platform

- MI Sustainable Bioenergy Challenge

• Follow up of key deployment indicators via IEA Clean Energy Progress Report…….

• Continued cooperation/coordination of international organisations - Potential for cost reduction for advanced biofuels

- Potential for bioenergy in industry (along with other renewables)

- Role of international aid agencies and lenders in bioenergy

- Expanded work on synergies between bioenergy and wider bioeconomy

- Identification of policy best practice for stimulation of sustainable bioenergy including novel biofuels

- Effective application of sustainability criteria for bioenergy, including for forestry based biomass.

© IEA 2017

Conclusions

• Sustainable bioenergy is an essential element in the portfolio of measures

needed for a low carbon scenario.

• Biofuels can play a particularly important role in the transport sectors.

• Advanced biofuels key to success – low emissions, use in aviation and shipping

• Progress is much slower than necessary so we need to:

- Expand deployment of existing technologies

- Commercialise the new technologies

- Develop sustainable supply chains and appropriate sustainability governance systems

- Build technical and regulatory capacity in a much wider range of countries and regions