IERM Overview

Goals: 1. Development of an integrated, whole-

system model for ecological response to water level/flow scenarios

2. Blend ecological research from LOSL study with existing data and knowledge base for system

Five main benefits to incorporating data collection into the IERM Scale integration Process representation Extending available data Spatial extrapolation Evaluation of competing responses

Benefit #1: Scale Integration

IERM will provide means for integrating a range of spatial and temporal scales

Includes H&H inputs as well as ecosystem interactions

Example:

H&H Inputs(weekly)

Muskrat Response(annual)

Plant Community Response (long-term)

Fish Response(seasonal)

Algal Response(weekly)

Benefit #2: Process Representation

Representation of processes that explain community/population dynamics

Process-based model provides predictive capability

Connects indicator to stressors

Potentially connects indicator species to entire community

Process Representation – Sport Fish Example

Temperature

Water Level& Flow

NutrientSources

Phytoplankton

Zooplankton

PlanktivorousFish

YOY Abundance•Growth•Predation•Natural Mortality

Juvenile Abundance•Growth•Predation•Natural Mortality

Habitat Quantity& Quality

Adult Abundance•Growth•Natural Mortality•Reproduction

(Graduation)

(Graduation)

Stocking

Harvest

Species or Guild

Benefit #3: Extending Available Data

Model can account for time lag in cause-effect relationships

Measured fish guild response depends on initial community abundance/structure prior to field experiment

Consider feedbacks between ecosystem components (e.g. muskrat cattails)

Benefit #4: Spatial Extrapolation

IERM provides avenue for extending results for a localized area to other parts of the system

Need to include all important governing factors to make extrapolation work

Examples: Extend results for 32 Lake Ontario wetlands to other wetland areas

Extend dabbling duck nesting success for Lake St. Pierre to Lake Ontario

Benefit #5: Evaluate Competing Responses

Data collection efforts address responses for individual species

IERM provides “big picture” evaluation of all species responses

Example: Regulation “Scenario X” impacts:

Wetland diversity Northern pike population Dabbling duck population Muskrat population

Evaluate Competing Responses - Example

St. LawrenceFlow Variations

Lake OntarioWL Variations

Wetland Plant Diversity

Wetland Plant Diversity

Cattail Abundance

Northern Pike Habitat Quality

Northern Pike Habitat Quality

Muskrat Habitat Quality

Muskrat Habitat Quality

Regulation

Cattail Abundance