Upload
patkidney
View
798
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
All changed, changed utterly - from the days of the wireless to today’s digital home and beyond It is only a relatively short time since the radio or wireless was a piece of furniture in European home and the mainstay of home entertainment. Radios get smaller, televisions entered homes and home entertainment became a reality. The advent of the digital age, fixed and wireless connectivity to the Internet has transformed the consumer experience ... This talk will chart the course of the home technology evolution over the past 50 years Explore where it might go in the future.
Citation preview
Ref: 67485649/225
“All changed, changed utterly” - From
the days of the “wireless” to today's
digital home and beyond”
IET Ireland Network
2011 Chairman‟s Address
Pat Kidney
06 Oct 2011
2
67485649/225
Engineering and Technology
3
67485649/225
IET Vision and Mission
Vision
w To share and advance knowledge throughout the global Science, Engineering and Technology community to enhance people’s lives around the world
Mission
w To build an open, flexible and global knowledge network supported by individuals, companies and institutions and facilitated by the IET and its members
4
67485649/225
Ireland Network Vision
To operate as an autonomous group within Ireland whilst
co-operating with other professional bodies
To serve our members in Ireland by organising an annual
programme of meetings, technical visits and social events.
To help our members remain employable for life
To raise the profile of the engineer in Irish society
To spread engineering knowledge, learning and problem
solving skills
To promote the ideas and intellectual output of Irish people
To facilitate the links between business and academia.
5
67485649/225
„Employment for life‟ has become
„employable for life‟
Networking potential and access to influential people in the wider industry and society
Being part of a high-tech knowledge community
Support knowledge and skills development
Broad scope of membership
w Chartered Eng, Eng Tech, IT Professions, etc.
Professional registration, international recognition / scope
Why the IET?
6
67485649/225
A Professional Home For Life
Late-career/Retired Mid-career Young
Professionals Students
Links to
industry
Specialist technical knowledge
Broad sector
knowledge
Professional Skills Management Skills Mentoring
Community
Volunteering
Careers
guidance
7
67485649/225
Programme of events 2011/2012
Research and
Development
Engineering and
Technology
Power Telecommunications
and Media
Smart
Economy
Other Events
8
67485649/225
Programme of events 2011/2012
Research and
Development
Drug Delivery in medicine
Engineering and
Technology
Control system of the Airbus
A320
Power
What now for the single
electricity market
Telecommunications
and Media
Saorview Smart
Economy
Other Events
Ref: 67485649/225
“All changed, changed utterly” -
From the days of the “wireless” to
today's digital home and beyond Pat Kidney
06 Oct 2011
10
67485649/225
Home technology from a slow start
to the ubiquitous mobile
11
67485649/225
When technology started to
provide home entertainment….
12
67485649/225
…it was a family affair
13
67485649/225
The Television ….first to transmit
pictures
14
67485649/225
Traditional TV watching… linear
Whatever programme
Available at that moment
Available on that channel
One size fits all concept
15
67485649/225
However, the future of content is in
the long tail and choice
Consumer are all individuals
Consumers matched with Content
Opportunity for targeted advertising
Titles
No o
f V
iew
ers “The 80/20 rule does not apply in a
world without the constraints of physical media”
Broadcast
DTT/Cable/Satellite
Uni cast
IPTV
16
67485649/225
Combination of Broadcast and
Broadband IPTV revolutionises the
market
Broadband IPTV complements
DTT & provides innovative new
services:
w Catch up TV
w Video on demand
w User generated content
w Social networking
w Interactive services
17
67485649/225
“Receivers of the future” in 2000 …
• Could be a Set Top Box...
• Could be a TV set...
• Could be a PC with plug-in card...
• Could be a mobile…..
• or a digital device of some kind...
Integrated Receiver-
Decoder (IRD)
?
18
67485649/225
The growing appetite for the
flexible consumption of content…
19
67485649/225
Who is watching what?
online video regularly –
younger and larger HH
Online video has
complemented, rather than
replaced, pay TV
The young are far more
likely to view TV content
via devices, such as
games consoles and
laptops.
The young value the
flexibility
Figure 1: TV and online video consumption by age
group1 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]
1 Questions: “Do you frequently use a TV?”; all respondents; n = 6000; “Do
you also take pay-TV?”; all respondents with fixed broadband; n = 4918;
“Have you viewed an online video within the past 3 months?”; all
respondents; n = 6000.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
18–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 55–64 65+
Perc
enta
ge o
f re
spondents
TV Pay TV Online video
20
67485649/225
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Germany
France
USA
Spain
Poland
UK
Percentage of subscribers
Intend to churn Intend to churn, but tied into contract
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
1 2 3 4 5
Overall fixed broadband customer satisfaction
(1 = unsatisfied; 5 = very satisfied)
Pe
rce
nta
ge
of
su
bs
crib
ers
Europe 2009
Europe 2010
USA 2010
• Service usage is
fragmenting. The ubiquity
of connected devices
enables users to carry
out an increasing number
of digital activities
simultaneously..
• Service providers must
prioritise customer
care.
Resulting in some interesting user
behaviour Figure 1: Percentage of fixed broadband subscribers who
intend to change service provider, by overall fixed
broadband customer satisfaction1 [Source: Analysys
Mason, 2010]
Figure 2: Percentage of mobile broadband subscribers
who intend to change service provider, by country1
[Source: Analysys Mason, 2010]
1 Question: “Do you intend to change your Internet service provider in the
next six months?”. Figure 1: respondents with a fixed broadband
connection, decision makers; n = 4117. Figure 2: respondents with a
mobile broadband connection; n = 1388.
21
67485649/225
The audio-visual sector is undergoing
three, significant high-level changes
22
67485649/225
Digital distribution is resulting in more
channels, services and indirectly content
Number of HD channels in Europe
Source: SES 2009, Analysys Mason 2010
52
101
176
228
276
319344
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Num
ber
of
HD
channels
Global 3D TV shipment forecasts
0.2 1.5 3.59.5
16
25
36.5
46
53.5
64
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
3D
TV
Ship
ments
(m
illions)
Source: DisplaySearch
23
67485649/225
Video to PC and to TV will be the
main driver of IP traffic growth Global Consumer Internet Traffic Forecast
Source: Cisco Global Consumer Internet Traffic, 2009-2014
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Tra
ffic
(P
B p
er
mo
nth
)
File Sharing Internet Video Internet Video to TVWeb/Data Video Calling Online GamingVoIP
Notable growth in
traffic to connected-
TVs is expected in
the next few years
However,
highest traffic
demand still
expected to
come from
video to PC
services
24
67485649/225
New interfaces on TVs makes
consumption of interactive content easy
Canvas
Source: BBC
Sony Bravia TV Source: Sony
Yahoo! Connected TV
Source: Yahoo!
OpenTV
Source: CNN
25
67485649/225
Draft Project Canvas service structure Project Canvas indicative screenshots:
Source: BBC
Connected TV offers opportunities to
producers to create new types of content
26
67485649/225
The digital home is a reality…the
building blocks are in place
ubiquitous high-speed
connectivity through:
w high penetration rate for
fixed broadband
w maturity of home
networking technology
w widespread deployment
of 3G and 3.5G cellular
networks.
growing number of
connected devices
Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/lorenjavier/ CC BY-
ND 2.0
27
67485649/225
The digital home …more blocks
w digital delivery of content
w move towards open
standards
w consumer desire for
flexibility in the way they
access and consume their
content
w green agenda
w deployment of smart
infrastructure by utilities.
28
67485649/225
fixed broadband is reaching
stagnation in developed markets Figure 1: Fixed and mobile broadband connections in developed markets, 2009–2015 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Bro
ad
ba
nd
co
nn
ectio
ns (
millio
n)
Fixed broadband Mobile broadband
5-year growthopportunity for
new fixed broadbandconnections
For further information, please see Analysys Mason’s Fixed broadband: worldwide forecast 2010–2015 at
http://www.analysysmason.com/Research/Content/Viewpoints/RDMB0_Fixed_BB_worldwide_forecast/.
29
67485649/225
Operator‟s focus is moving from
outside to inside
30
67485649/225
Digital home multimedia
Content creation
Professional content
User-generated content
Services
Content
Service wrap
Content aggregation
Professional
User-generated
Devices
Primary terminals
Peripheral devices
Connectivity
To the home
In-home
Consumer
31
67485649/225
Multimedia digital home services
Whole-home
DVR
Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/lge CC BY 2.0
32
67485649/225
Multimedia digital home services
Whole-home
DVR
Digital music1
Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/lge CC BY 2.0 Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/horiavarlan CC
BY 2.0
1 For further information, please see Analysys Mason’s Digital music services: strategies for operators at
http://www.analysysmason.com/Research/Content/Viewpoints/Analysys_Mason_RDMB0_RDMY0_Digital_music_strategies_Mar2011/.
34
67485649/225
Multimedia digital home services
Online storage and
backup1
Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/walkn CC BY
2.0
1 For further information, please see Analysys Mason’s Online storage is a growth market that ISPs cannot afford to ignore at
http://www.analysysmason.com/Research/Content/Viewpoints/Online-storage-is-a-growth-market-that-ISPs-cannot-afford-to-ignore/.
35
67485649/225
Multimedia digital home services
Technical support
and warranty
services2
Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/walkn CC BY
2.0
1 For further information, please see Analysys Mason’s Online storage is a growth market that ISPs cannot afford to ignore at
http://www.analysysmason.com/Research/Content/Viewpoints/Online-storage-is-a-growth-market-that-ISPs-cannot-afford-to-ignore/.
2 For further information, please see Analysys Mason’s Beyond voice: how telcos are realising the potential of ICT support services at
http://www.analysysmason.com/Research/Content/Viewpoints/Beyond-voice-how-telcos-are-realising-the-potential-of-ICT-support-services/.
Online storage and
backup1
Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/alanclarkdesign CC BY-
ND 2.0
36
67485649/225
Home automation value chain
Services
Service wrap
Actual services
Applications
Devices and appliances
Enabling devices
Single-function devices
Appliances
Networks
Utility networks
Communications networks
In-home networks
Consumer
37
67485649/225
Home security and
monitoring
Home automation services
Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/fotdmike CC
BY 2.0
38
67485649/225
Home automation services
Energy
management
Home security and
monitoring
Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/fotdmike CC
BY 2.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
01
Ap
r
08
Ap
r
15
Ap
r
22
Ap
r
29
Ap
r
06
Ma
y
Avera
ge t
em
pera
ture
(d
egre
es C
els
ius)
Daily u
sage (
kW
h)
Usage (kWh) Average temperature (Celcius)
39
67485649/225
Multimedia
Home
automation
Past Present Future
Music Video Game
s
Devices
Music
Video
Game
s Different types
of content to
dedicated
devices
Different
types of
content to
various
devices
Devices
Music
Video
Game
s
Different
types of
content
flowing from
one device to
another
Proprietary home
controller connected
to various functions
(HVAC, lighting, etc.)
Move towards open
standards grows the
market, yet home
automation network
remains separate
Home automation
network integrated with
multimedia network,
appliances connected
to home network
40
67485649/225
A glimpse into the future?
Source: KT Corp. (Kyeonggi-do, Korea, 2011), KT to Launch Kibot, a robot for kids, first-ever in the world. Available at http://www.kt.com/eng/index.jsp.
41
67485649/225
Food for thought – an engineering
challenge
“In the old days of Radio, one person, or a small group,
spoke to hundreds, or thousands or tens of thousands.
They were trained in the subject and even trained to
speak on a microphone.
Nowadays, with Internet, everyone has a voice, everyone
says his bit.
The ratio of mouths to ears has changed. The ratio of
literate to illiterate communication has changed”.
42
67485649/225
Pat Kidney
Suite 242, The Capel Building
Mary's Abbey
Dublin 7, Ireland
Tel: +353 86 2446091
www.analysysmason.com