Upload
georgina-williams
View
235
Download
1
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
IIM Ahmedabad
Introduction to Integrated Environment Assessment Models
Presentation byP.R. Shukla
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad
APEIS Capacity Building Workshop onIntegrated Environment Assessment in the Asia-Pacific Region
October 24-26, 2002, Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi
IIM Ahmedabad
• Why Integrated Environment Assessment?
• What is Integrated Environment Assessment?Example: Integrated Assessment of Climate Change
• What are Integrated Assessment Models and Component Models?Example: Integrated Assessment Models for Climate Change Policy Analysis
• What kind of results and insights do Integrated Assessment provide?Example: Results and Insights from Integrated Assessment of Climate Change
• Why and what kind of capacity building for Integrated Assessment in developing countries?
Presentation Agenda
IIM Ahmedabad
Multiple Interfaces of Environment Assessment
PolicymakingProcess
Integrated Assessment
Models and Frameworks
Ecology
Policy sciences
Hydraulics
Meteorology
Climatology
GeophysicsAtmospheric
Chemistry Economics
Biology
Geochemistry
Knowledge disciplines
IIM Ahmedabad
• Diverse Scientific Disciplines
• Diverse socio-economic scenarios
• Macro and micro-economies
• Local and regional boundaries
• Short and long time horizons
• Local and global environmental concerns
• Rural and urban perspectives
• Regional emissions and impact assessment
• Probability and Decision under uncertainty
• Technology
What to Integrate?
IIM Ahmedabad
Why Integrated Assessment?
• To assemble, summarise, organise, interpret and reconcile pieces of existing knowledge
• To add value through integration (but not to add knowledge)
• To develop full range of policy outcomes
• To enhance Communication between scientific disciplines and policy formulation
IIM Ahmedabad
Why Integrated Assessment Models?
• Framework for conducting research ensuring consistency pointing to areas where more information is required
• IAMs are good ‘forecasting’ and ‘heuristic’ tools
• Communications tools between different sciences and between science and policy
• Insights from investigations in the domains of the sub-components
IIM Ahmedabad
What is Integrated Environment Assessment?
ExampleIntegrated Assessment
of Climate Change
IIM Ahmedabad
Integrated Climate Change Dimensions
Atmospheric Composition
Climate & Sea Level
Human Activities Ecosystems
IIM Ahmedabad
What are Integrated Assessment Models?
ExampleIntegrated Assessment Models forClimate Change Policy Analysis
IIM Ahmedabad
AIM Model System
Land use
TemperaturePrecipitation
Sunshine
Water resource
Crop Productivity
Socio-economic indicator
Impact on food demand
Adaptation strategy
AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact
A set of ecosystem models, including a vegetation dynamics model, a water resource model, an agricultural productivity model and a health impact model
A reduced-form model to project future socio-economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries
Futureeconomic trend
Futureenvironmental trend
India
Thailand
Korea
Japan
China
AIM/TrendIndustry
Green Purchase
Environ-mental Burden
Environment Fund
Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle)
Was
tes
Environmental Burden
Rec
ycle
Technology needsTechnology assessment
Environmental Industry
Environmental burden
Consumer
Research on new technologies
AIM/MaterialA environment-economy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules
AIM/Energy/Technology/Country
A bottom-up technology selection model of energy useand emissions at country and local level
AIM/Bottom-upA bottom-up technology
& land use model for Asia-Pacific region
AIM/Top-downA general-equilibrium-
type world economic model
AIM FamilyAIM Family
IIM Ahmedabad
Strategic Database
OutputsOutputs
OutputsOutputs
Outputs
Innovational Work System
CommonCommonDatabaseDatabase
Monitoring & Processing
Data from IEM
AIM-Trend
AIM-EnergyAIM-Top-down
AIM-Material AIM-Ecosystem
Policy making
Statistics
Atmospheric CompositionMAGICC
Climate & Sea LevelSCENGEN
Human ActivitiesERB-AGLU
EcosystemsAGLU & MERGE
MiniCAMAn Integrated Modelling Framework
IIM Ahmedabad
MiniCAMCOMPONENTS
ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION CLIMATE & SEA LEVEL
HUMAN ACTIVITIES ECOSYSTEMS
MAGICCAtmospheric Chemistry
MAGICCOcean Carbon
Cycle
MAGICCClimate
MAGICC--Ocean · temperature
· sea level
ERBEnergy System
ERBOther Human
Systems
ALUAg., L'stock
& Forestry
(none)Coastal System
MAGICCTerrestrial
Carbon Cyc.
ALUCrops & Forestry
Un-managed Eco-system & Animals
ALUHydrology
IIM Ahmedabad
19952005
20152025
2032
BG
DN
PL
MM
RV
NM
PA
KID
NTJK IN
DLK
AK
GZ
CH
NPH
LTH
AIR
NPR
KU
ZB
MYS
JPN
NZ
LA
US
TK
MTW
NK
AZ
KO
RSG
P0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16CO2 per capita[t-C/cap/yr]
YearCountry
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
AFRICA+MIDDLE EASTLATIN AMERICAASIA PACIFICNORTH AMERICAEUROPE+FORMER USSR0
10
20
30
40
50
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
AFRICA+MIDDLE EASTLATIN AMERICAASIA PACIFICNORTH AMERICAEUROPE+FORMER USSR0
10
20
30
40
50
GDP growth
19952005
20152025
2032
BG
DN
PL
MM
RV
NM
PA
KID
NTJK IN
DLK
AK
GZ
CH
NPH
LTH
AIR
NPR
KU
ZB
MYS
JPN
NZ
LA
US
TK
MTW
NK
AZ
KO
RSG
P0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16CO2 per capita[t-C/cap/yr]
YearCountry
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
AFRICA+MIDDLE EASTLATIN AMERICAASIA PACIFICNORTH AMERICAEUROPE+FORMER USSR0
10
20
30
40
50
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
AFRICA+MIDDLE EASTLATIN AMERICAASIA PACIFICNORTH AMERICAEUROPE+FORMER USSR0
10
20
30
40
50
GDP growth
Land use
Temperature
Precipitation
Sunshine
Water resource
Crop Productivity
Socio-economicindicator
Impact on food demand
Adaptation strategy
AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact
A set of ecosystem models, including a vegetation dynamics model, a water resource model, an agricultural productivity model and a health impact model
A reduced-form model to project future socio-economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries
Futureeconomic trend
Futureenvironmental trend
India
Thailand
Korea
Japan
China
AIM/TrendIndustry
Green Purchase
Environ-mental Burden
Environment Fund
Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle)
Was
tes
Environmental Burden
Rec
ycle
Technology needsTechnology assessment
EnvironmentalIndustry
Environmentalburden
Consumer
Research on new technologies
AIM/MaterialA environment-economy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules
Emission Intensity of SO2 in China
AIM/Energy/Technology/Country
A bottom-up technology selection model of energy useand emissions at country and local level
AIM/Bottom-upA simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region
AIM/Top-downA general-equilibrium-
type world economic model
AIM FamilyAIM Family
Land use
Temperature
Precipitation
Sunshine
Water resource
Crop Productivity
Socio-economicindicator
Impact on food demand
Adaptation strategy
Land use
Temperature
Precipitation
Sunshine
Water resource
Crop Productivity
Socio-economicindicator
Impact on food demand
Adaptation strategy
Land use
Temperature
Precipitation
Sunshine
Water resource
Crop Productivity
Socio-economicindicator
Impact on food demand
Adaptation strategy
AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact
A set of ecosystem models, including a vegetation dynamics model, a water resource model, an agricultural productivity model and a health impact model
A reduced-form model to project future socio-economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries
Futureeconomic trend
Futureenvironmental trend
India
Thailand
Korea
Japan
China
AIM/TrendA reduced-form model to project future socio-economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries
Futureeconomic trend
Futureenvironmental trend
India
Thailand
Korea
Japan
China
Futureeconomic trendFutureeconomic trend
Futureenvironmental trendFutureenvironmental trend
India
Thailand
Korea
Japan
China
AIM/TrendIndustry
Green Purchase
Environ-mental Burden
Environment Fund
Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle)
Was
tes
Environmental Burden
Rec
ycle
Technology needsTechnology assessment
EnvironmentalIndustry
Environmentalburden
Consumer
Research on new technologies
AIM/MaterialA environment-economy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules
IndustryGreen Purchase
Environ-mental Burden
Environment Fund
Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle)
Was
tes
Environmental Burden
Rec
ycle
Technology needsTechnology assessment
EnvironmentalIndustry
Environmentalburden
Consumer
Research on new technologies
IndustryGreen Purchase
Environ-mental Burden
Environment Fund
Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle)
Was
tes
Environmental Burden
Rec
ycle
Technology needsTechnology assessment
EnvironmentalIndustry
Environmentalburden
Consumer
Research on new technologies
AIM/MaterialA environment-economy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules
Emission Intensity of SO2 in ChinaEmission Intensity of SO2 in China
AIM/Energy/Technology/Country
A bottom-up technology selection model of energy useand emissions at country and local level
AIM/Bottom-upA simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region
AIM/Bottom-upA simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region
AIM/Bottom-upA simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region
AIM/Top-downA general-equilibrium-
type world economic model
AIM/Top-downA general-equilibrium-
type world economic model
AIM/Top-downA general-equilibrium-
type world economic model
AIM FamilyAIM FamilyGDP and CO2 Emissions:
AIM/Trend Model
IIM Ahmedabad
SO2 EmissionAIM/Emission Model
2000 2030
< 0.01 0.01-0.017
0.017-0.026 0.026-0.035 0.035-0.044 0.044-0.053 0.053-0.060
> 0.060
Million Tons < 0.01
0.03
0.07
0.15
< 0.20
0.11
Million Tons
< 0.01
0.03
0.07
0.15
< 0.20
0.11
Million Tons
Land use
Temperature
Precipitation
Sunshine
Water resource
Crop Productivity
Socio-economicindicator
Impact on food demand
Adaptation strategy
AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact
A set of ecosystem models, including a vegetation dynamics model, a water resource model, an agricultural productivity model and a health impact model
A reduced-form model to project future socio-economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries
Futureeconomic trend
Futureenvironmental trend
India
Thailand
Korea
Japan
China
AIM/TrendIndustry
Green Purchase
Environ-mental Burden
Environment Fund
Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle)
Was
tes
Environmental Burden
Rec
ycle
Technology needsTechnology assessment
EnvironmentalIndustry
Environmentalburden
Consumer
Research on new technologies
AIM/MaterialA environment-economy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules
Emission Intensity of SO2 in China
AIM/Energy/Technology/Country
A bottom-up technology selection model of energy useand emissions at country and local level
AIM/Bottom-upA simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region
AIM/Top-downA general-equilibrium-
type world economic model
AIM FamilyAIM Family
Land use
Temperature
Precipitation
Sunshine
Water resource
Crop Productivity
Socio-economicindicator
Impact on food demand
Adaptation strategy
Land use
Temperature
Precipitation
Sunshine
Water resource
Crop Productivity
Socio-economicindicator
Impact on food demand
Adaptation strategy
Land use
Temperature
Precipitation
Sunshine
Water resource
Crop Productivity
Socio-economicindicator
Impact on food demand
Adaptation strategy
AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact
A set of ecosystem models, including a vegetation dynamics model, a water resource model, an agricultural productivity model and a health impact model
A reduced-form model to project future socio-economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries
Futureeconomic trend
Futureenvironmental trend
India
Thailand
Korea
Japan
China
AIM/TrendA reduced-form model to project future socio-economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries
Futureeconomic trend
Futureenvironmental trend
India
Thailand
Korea
Japan
China
Futureeconomic trendFutureeconomic trend
Futureenvironmental trendFutureenvironmental trend
India
Thailand
Korea
Japan
China
AIM/TrendIndustry
Green Purchase
Environ-mental Burden
Environment Fund
Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle)
Was
tes
Environmental Burden
Rec
ycle
Technology needsTechnology assessment
EnvironmentalIndustry
Environmentalburden
Consumer
Research on new technologies
AIM/MaterialA environment-economy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules
IndustryGreen Purchase
Environ-mental Burden
Environment Fund
Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle)
Was
tes
Environmental Burden
Rec
ycle
Technology needsTechnology assessment
EnvironmentalIndustry
Environmentalburden
Consumer
Research on new technologies
IndustryGreen Purchase
Environ-mental Burden
Environment Fund
Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle)
Was
tes
Environmental Burden
Rec
ycle
Technology needsTechnology assessment
EnvironmentalIndustry
Environmentalburden
Consumer
Research on new technologies
AIM/MaterialA environment-economy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules
Emission Intensity of SO2 in ChinaEmission Intensity of SO2 in China
AIM/Energy/Technology/Country
A bottom-up technology selection model of energy useand emissions at country and local level
AIM/Bottom-upA simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region
AIM/Bottom-upA simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region
AIM/Bottom-upA simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region
AIM/Top-downA general-equilibrium-
type world economic model
AIM/Top-downA general-equilibrium-
type world economic model
AIM/Top-downA general-equilibrium-
type world economic model
AIM FamilyAIM Family
IIM Ahmedabad
Water Consumption:AIM/Ecosystem Model
Land use
Temperature
PrecipitationSunshine
Water resource
Crop Productivity
Socio-economicindicator
Impact on food demand
Adaptation strategy
AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact
A set of ecosystem models, including a vegetation dynamics model, a water resource model, an agricultural productivity model and a health impact model
A reduced-form model to project future socio-economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries
Futureeconomic trend
Futureenvironmental trend
India
Thailand
Korea
Japan
China
AIM/TrendIndustry
Green Purchase
Environ-mental Burden
Environment Fund
Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle)
Was
tes
Environmental Burden
Rec
ycle
Technology needsTechnology assessment
EnvironmentalIndustry
Environmentalburden
Consumer
Research on new technologies
AIM/MaterialA environment-economy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules
Emission Intensity of SO2 in China
AIM/Energy/Technology/Country
A bottom-up technology selection model of energy useand emissions at country and local level
AIM/Bottom-upA simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region
AIM/Top-downA general-equilibrium-
type world economic model
AIM FamilyAIM Family
Land use
Temperature
PrecipitationSunshine
Water resource
Crop Productivity
Socio-economicindicator
Impact on food demand
Adaptation strategy
Land use
Temperature
PrecipitationSunshine
Water resource
Crop Productivity
Socio-economicindicator
Impact on food demand
Adaptation strategy
Land use
Temperature
PrecipitationSunshine
Water resource
Crop Productivity
Socio-economicindicator
Impact on food demand
Adaptation strategy
AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact
A set of ecosystem models, including a vegetation dynamics model, a water resource model, an agricultural productivity model and a health impact model
A reduced-form model to project future socio-economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries
Futureeconomic trend
Futureenvironmental trend
India
Thailand
Korea
Japan
China
AIM/TrendA reduced-form model to project future socio-economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries
Futureeconomic trend
Futureenvironmental trend
India
Thailand
Korea
Japan
China
Futureeconomic trendFutureeconomic trend
Futureenvironmental trendFutureenvironmental trend
India
Thailand
Korea
Japan
China
AIM/TrendIndustry
Green Purchase
Environ-mental Burden
Environment Fund
Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle)
Was
tes
Environmental Burden
Rec
ycle
Technology needsTechnology assessment
EnvironmentalIndustry
Environmentalburden
Consumer
Research on new technologies
AIM/MaterialA environment-economy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules
IndustryGreen Purchase
Environ-mental Burden
Environment Fund
Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle)
Was
tes
Environmental Burden
Rec
ycle
Technology needsTechnology assessment
EnvironmentalIndustry
Environmentalburden
Consumer
Research on new technologies
IndustryGreen Purchase
Environ-mental Burden
Environment Fund
Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle)
Was
tes
Environmental Burden
Rec
ycle
Technology needsTechnology assessment
EnvironmentalIndustry
Environmentalburden
Consumer
Research on new technologies
AIM/MaterialA environment-economy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules
Emission Intensity of SO2 in ChinaEmission Intensity of SO2 in China
AIM/Energy/Technology/Country
A bottom-up technology selection model of energy useand emissions at country and local level
AIM/Bottom-upA simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region
AIM/Bottom-upA simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region
AIM/Bottom-upA simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region
AIM/Top-downA general-equilibrium-
type world economic model
AIM/Top-downA general-equilibrium-
type world economic model
AIM/Top-downA general-equilibrium-
type world economic model
AIM FamilyAIM Family
1995 Baseline
2032 Fortress World
2032 Policy Reform
WATER CONSUMPTION
0.0000
100.0000
200.0000
300.0000
400.0000
500.0000
600.0000
700.0000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
YEAR
CO
NS
UM
PT
ION
(km̂
3/year)
MF
FW
PR
GT
1 40 200 1000 5000
m3/ha/yearChange of water consumption from 1995 to 2032(Domestic + Agriculture + Industry)
1995 Baseline
2032 Fortress World
2032 Policy Reform
WATER CONSUMPTION
0.0000
100.0000
200.0000
300.0000
400.0000
500.0000
600.0000
700.0000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
YEAR
CO
NS
UM
PT
ION
(km̂
3/year)
MF
FW
PR
GT
1 40 200 1000 5000
m3/ha/yearChange of water consumption from 1995 to 2032(Domestic + Agriculture + Industry)
2030Market Force
IIM Ahmedabad
26 region – 36 sectorComputable General Equilibrium Model
(AIM/Top-down)
World level
Bottom-uptechnology
& land use Model
(AIM/Bottom-up)
Bottom-uptechnology
& land use Model
(AIM/Bottom-up)
Bottom-uptechnology
& land use Model
(AIM/Bottom-up)
・・・
Country level
AIM/Top-down &AIM/Bottom-up Model
Land use
Temperature
Precipitation
Sunshine
Water resource
Crop Productivity
Socio-economicindicator
Impact on food demand
Adaptation strategy
AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact
A set of ecosystem models, including a vegetation dynamics model, a water resource model, an agricultural productivity model and a health impact model
A reduced-form model to project future socio-economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries
Futureeconomic trend
Futureenvironmental trend
India
Thailand
Korea
Japan
China
AIM/TrendIndustry
Green Purchase
Environ-mental Burden
Environment Fund
Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle)
Was
tes
Environmental Burden
Rec
ycle
Technology needsTechnology assessment
EnvironmentalIndustry
Environmentalburden
Consumer
Research on new technologies
AIM/MaterialA environment-economy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules
Emission Intensity of SO2 in China
AIM/Energy/Technology/Country
A bottom-up technology selection model of energy useand emissions at country and local level
AIM/Bottom-upA simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region
AIM/Top-downA general-equilibrium-
type world economic model
AIM FamilyAIM Family
Land use
Temperature
Precipitation
Sunshine
Water resource
Crop Productivity
Socio-economicindicator
Impact on food demand
Adaptation strategy
Land use
Temperature
Precipitation
Sunshine
Water resource
Crop Productivity
Socio-economicindicator
Impact on food demand
Adaptation strategy
Land use
Temperature
Precipitation
Sunshine
Water resource
Crop Productivity
Socio-economicindicator
Impact on food demand
Adaptation strategy
AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact
A set of ecosystem models, including a vegetation dynamics model, a water resource model, an agricultural productivity model and a health impact model
A reduced-form model to project future socio-economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries
Futureeconomic trend
Futureenvironmental trend
India
Thailand
Korea
Japan
China
AIM/TrendA reduced-form model to project future socio-economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries
Futureeconomic trend
Futureenvironmental trend
India
Thailand
Korea
Japan
China
Futureeconomic trendFutureeconomic trend
Futureenvironmental trendFutureenvironmental trend
India
Thailand
Korea
Japan
China
AIM/TrendIndustry
Green Purchase
Environ-mental Burden
Environment Fund
Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle)
Was
tes
Environmental Burden
Rec
ycle
Technology needsTechnology assessment
EnvironmentalIndustry
Environmentalburden
Consumer
Research on new technologies
AIM/MaterialA environment-economy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules
IndustryGreen Purchase
Environ-mental Burden
Environment Fund
Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle)
Was
tes
Environmental Burden
Rec
ycle
Technology needsTechnology assessment
EnvironmentalIndustry
Environmentalburden
Consumer
Research on new technologies
IndustryGreen Purchase
Environ-mental Burden
Environment Fund
Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle)
Was
tes
Environmental Burden
Rec
ycle
Technology needsTechnology assessment
EnvironmentalIndustry
Environmentalburden
Consumer
Research on new technologies
AIM/MaterialA environment-economy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules
Emission Intensity of SO2 in ChinaEmission Intensity of SO2 in China
AIM/Energy/Technology/Country
A bottom-up technology selection model of energy useand emissions at country and local level
AIM/Bottom-upA simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region
AIM/Bottom-upA simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region
AIM/Bottom-upA simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region
AIM/Top-downA general-equilibrium-
type world economic model
AIM/Top-downA general-equilibrium-
type world economic model
AIM/Top-downA general-equilibrium-
type world economic model
AIM FamilyAIM Family
IIM Ahmedabad
Emissions and Concentrations
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
19
90
20
15
20
40
20
65
20
90
21
15
21
40
21
65
21
90
22
15
22
40
22
65
22
90
Pg
C/y
r
WRE 750WRE 650WRE 550WRE 450WRE 350
IS92a
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
19
90
20
15
20
40
20
65
20
90
21
15
21
40
21
65
21
90
22
15
22
40
22
65
22
90
pp
mv
WRE 750WRE 650WRE 550WRE 450WRE 350
IS92a
IIM Ahmedabad
Energy Consumption Carbon Emissions
0
200
400
600
800
1995 2005 2015 2025 2035Year
Car
bon
(M
T)
0
10
20
30
40
50
1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
Year
Exa
Jou
les
Coal
Oil
GasHydro
Nuclear
RenewablesBiomass
Energy and Carbon Emissions for India: AIMENDUSE Model
IIM Ahmedabad
GHG versus Local Emissions in India
Carbon Emissions SO2 Emissions
0
200
400
600
800
1995 2005 2015 2025 2035Year
Car
bon
(M
T)
Year
Mil
lion
Ton
nes
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
7
IIM Ahmedabad
Global Carbon Mitigation Scenarios(2000 - 2100)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Ca
rbo
n (
Mill
ion
To
n)
550ppmv
650ppmv
750ppmv
Base Case
IIM Ahmedabad
Technology, Energy & Climate: MINICAM
1990 2005 2020 20352050
20652080
2095
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000M
illio
ns o
f Ton
nes
of C
arbo
n pe
r ye
arsoil carbon sequestrationsequestration from fossil power generationsequestration from synfuels productionsequestration from H2 productionend-use technology improvementsnuclearsolarbiomass550 ppmv emissions
550 ppmv
IIM Ahmedabad
Indian Energy System Transformation Under 550 ppmv Stabilization
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Exa
joul
es
Oil Gas Coal Biomass Hydro Solar Nuclear0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Carbon Capture
Energy Efficiency
Wind
Solar
Biomass
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
India 550 ppmv emission
Base Case Energy System Energy Changes: 550 ppmv Case
MT
C
550 ppmv
IIM Ahmedabad
Technological Change in India to Stabilize CO2 at 550 ppmv
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Carbon Capture
Energy Efficiency
Wind
Solar
Biomass
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
India 550 ppmv emission
550 PPMV550 PPMV
Non-Fossil Energy Contribution to GHG Mitigation
400
800
1200
2000
1600
IIM Ahmedabad
Impact of Regional Energy Market Developments in South-Asia
CarbonSOX
0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
7.5
9.0
10.5R
edu
ctio
n (
%)
Year
Emissions Reduction (2015)
Grid Integration
Grid Integration + Regional Co-operation
IIM Ahmedabad
Why and What kind of Capacity Building for Integrated
Environment Assessment in Developing Countries?
IIM Ahmedabad
Integrated Environment Assessment: Developing Country
Problems
• Assessment and modeling capabilities
• Inadequate database
• Structural changes in the economy
• Myriad and conflicting developmental concerns
• Weak regional and international linkages
• Lack of sustained funding
IIM Ahmedabad
Limitations of Present Approaches
• Limited capability to characterize and parameterize long term interactions between the economy, society, and environment
• Assumptions derived from developed world perspective
• Inability to characterize discontinuities and extreme events
• Weak behavioral interfaces
• Distance between analysts and policy makers
IIM Ahmedabad
Capacity Building Needs for Developing Countries
• Inventorize existing best competence, data and experiences
• Networking and cooperation with regional and global teams
• Promote integrated assessment modeling under developing country expert leadership in cooperation with global experts
• Sustained funding
• Institutionalize integrated assessment activities