IIM Ahmedabad

Inventory and Future Emissions from India:

Analysis Using AIM Local Model

P.R. ShuklaIndian Institute of Management

Ahmedabad, India

7th AIM International WorkshopNIES, Tsukuba, Japan, March 15-17, 2002

IIM Ahmedabad

Overview

India Emission Inventory

India Future Emissions

Large Point Sources (LPS)

Area Sources

District Ahmedabad

IIM Ahmedabad

India Emission Inventory

IIM Ahmedabad

Emissions Inventory for India

Emissions (Tg) 1990 1995 2000 CAGR *

Carbon dioxide 593 778 935 4.9

Methane 17.050 18.050 19.100 1.2

N2

O 0.213 0.251 0.308 3.8

SO2

3.540 4.640 5.940 5.3

NOX

2.640 3.460 4.300 5.0

CO2

equivalent GHG 1016 1234 1432 3.5

* Compounded Annual Growth Rate over 1990-2000 (%)

IIM Ahmedabad

India Emission Trends (Tg)

Carbon dioxide Methane

1616.5

1717.5

1818.5

1919.5

1990 1995 2000

Emis

sion

s(T

g)0

200

400

600

800

1000

1990 1995 2000

Emis

sion

s (T

g)

Growth rate 4.9%

Growth rate 1.2%

IIM Ahmedabad

India Emission Trends (Tg)

SO2 and NOx N2O

01234567

1990 1995 2000

Emis

sion

s (T

g)

SO2 (GR 5.3%)

NOx (GR 4.9%)N2O Growth rate 3.9%

00.050.1

0.150.2

0.250.3

0.35

1990 1995 2000

Emis

sion

s(T

g)

N2O (GR 3.8%)

IIM Ahmedabad

Emission Inventory: 466 Districts of India

IIM Ahmedabad

CO2 Emission Distribution1995 2000

IIM Ahmedabad

No of Largest Percentage ofemitter districts total emission

1995 20001-5 16.1 15.81-15 36.7 36.91-25 50.3 56.41-47 67.4 73.61-233 95.3 95.9All India 100 100

Coal mainstay- hot-spots have high correlation with coal consumption

Thermal power plants (Coal), large cities (Oil) and industrial towns –main hot-spots

Electricity generation dominates the hot-spots

CO2 Emission Distribution

IIM Ahmedabad

SO2 Emission Distribution1995 2000

IIM Ahmedabad

No of Largest Percentage of emitter districts total emission

1995 20001-5 15.5 16.11-15 33.4 36.21-25 46.5 50.11-47 63.8 68.51-233 94.3 94.8All India 100 100

Hot-spots have high co-relation with CO2 emissions

Top 20 districts growth rate higher than national average

Least 400 contribution decreased but emissions marginally increased

SO2 Emission Distribution

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Delhi SO2 Emissions from Oil

SO2 Co-efficient decrease from 0.02 to 0.005 for Diesel over 1995-2000 has resulted in substantial SO2 emission reduction in case of Delhi

00.0050.01

0.0150.02

0.0250.03

0.0350.04

1900 1995 2000

Emis

sion

s (M

T)

HSD MS SKO LDO FO Naphtha LSHS ATF

IIM Ahmedabad

Future Emissions

IIM Ahmedabad

Emission projections for India

Emissions (Tg) 1995 2000 2010 2020 2030 CAGR*

CO2

778 935 1507 2097 2482 3.37

Methane 18.05 19.10 21.5 23.2 24.83 0.91

N2O 0.25 0.31 0.40 0.61 0.75 3.18

SO2

4.64 5.94 6.46 8.09 7.62 1.42

NOX

3.46 4.30 6.08 7.64 8.48 2.59

CO2

equivalent GHG 1234 1432 2063 2752 3233 2.79

* Compounded Annual Growth Rate over 1995-2030 (%)

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LPS Future Emissions

IIM Ahmedabad

LPS Database

Data for increasing numbers of LPS

Coverage of gases: CO2 and SO2

Emissions factors for India

Projections up to year 2030

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LPS Coverage for IndiaSector Sub-sectors LPS covered

2000 2010 2020 2030Power (coal & Oil) 82 111 131 150Power (natural gas) 12 17 20 23Steel 11 17 23 29Cement * 85 98 110 123Fertilizer 31 41 52 62Paper 33 38 43 48Sugar 28 28 29 30

Energy

Caustic Soda 19 21 23 26H2SO4 manufacturing 63 64 66 68Aluminium (Al) 3 4 5 5Copper ore smelting (Cu) 8 9 10 11Lead ore smelting (Pb) 5 6 7 8

Industrial processes

Zinc ore smelting (Zn) 3 4 5 5

Total 383 458 524 588

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LPS Locations2000 2030

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Database Generation

Sectoral demand projections on the basis of macro-economic parameters

Thirty year time series GDPGovernment projectionsExpert opinion

LPS demand on the basis of sectoral demand elasticity and past production trendsDemand over and above LPS capacities assigned to Area Sources

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CO2 from LPS

2000 2010

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CO2 from LPS2020 2030

IIM Ahmedabad

CO2 from Energy Sector LPS

0200400600800

100012001400160018002000

2000 2010 2020 2030

Year

Tg

Pow er (Coal & Oil) Pow er (Gas) Steel Cement Fertilizer Paper Sugar

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Sectoral LPS share for CO2 2000

LPSAll India

LPS Share66%

Other34%

Power (Coal & Oil)62%

Steel20%

Cement12%

Paper3%

Power (Gas)3%

IIM Ahmedabad

Sectoral LPS share for CO2 2030

LPS Share71%

Other29%

Power (Coal & Oil)64%

Steel15%

Cement14%

Paper2%

Power (Gas)5%

LPSAll India

IIM Ahmedabad

SO2 from LPS2000 2010

IIM Ahmedabad

SO2 from LPS2020 2030

IIM Ahmedabad

SO2 from Energy Sector LPS

00.5

11.5

22.5

33.5

44.5

5

2000 2010 2020 2030

Year

Tg

Pow er Steel Cement Fertilizer Paper Sugar

IIM Ahmedabad

SO2 from Industrial Processes LPS

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

2000 2010 2020 2030

Year

Tg

H2SO4 Copper (Cu) Lead (Pb) Zinc (Zn)

IIM Ahmedabad

Sectoral LPS share for SO2 2000

LPS Share66%

Other34%

Power (Coal & Oil)59%

Steel22%

Cement10%

Paper5%

Ind. Process4%

LPSAll India

IIM Ahmedabad

Sectoral LPS share for SO2 2010

LPS Share

Other

All India LPS

Steel20%

Cement12%

Ind. Process2%

Paper5%

Power61%

67%

33%

IIM Ahmedabad

Sectoral LPS share for SO2 2030

LPS Share63%

Other37% Power (Coal & Oil)

50%Steel23%

Cement15%

Paper5%

Ind. Process7%

LPSAll India

IIM Ahmedabad

SO2 Emissions in India

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035Year

Mill

ion

Ton

nes

IIM Ahmedabad

Kuznets’ Analysis - SO2 Emissions

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1500 3500 5500 7500GDP per capita (PPP$)

MT

2025

IIM Ahmedabad

AIM Local ModelAhmedabad District

IIM Ahmedabad

Ahmedabad District

AhmedabadMunicipal area

Gujarat

Gujarat State & Ahmedabad District

Area Population Sq. Km. Thousands

Gujarat 18509 184 196024 (3) 41310 (34)Ahmedabad Dist. 648 7 8707 (6) 4802 (75)

Villages Taluka

IIM Ahmedabad

Ahmedabad District

Viramgam

Dholka

AhmedabadCity

Daskroi

Dehgam

Sanand

Dhandhuka

AhmedabadMunicipal Area

21.90 N

23.40 N71.60 E 730 E

Lat

itude

Longitude

IIM Ahmedabad

Ahmedabad District Profile

Note: Figures in brackets show % Urban share

Area Population HouseholdsSq. Kms. Thousands Thousands

Ahmedabad City 292 (83) 3250 (99) 629 (99)Daskroi 664 (5) 338 (28) 68 (29)Dholka 1788 (2) 307 (26) 57 (25)Dhandhuka 2683 (4) 252 (21) 42 (22)Sanand 791 (5) 162 (16) 30 (16)Viramgam 1714 (4) 278 (22) 54 (22)Dehgam 620 (4) 214 (15) 41 (15)

Taluka

IIM Ahmedabad

Ahmedabad IndustriesIndustrial Area Number of Industries Vatva 283 Rakhial/Odhav 233 Naroda 345 Narol 40 Dudheshwar 66 Danilimda/Chandola lake 64 Saraspur/Bapunagar 59 Amraiwadi 25 Bavla 11 Dhandhuka 5 Daskroi 18 Sanand 108 Dholka 23 Isanpur 28

IIM Ahmedabad

Vehicles in Ahmedabad District

Class of Vehicles 1980 1990 2000 (Estimate)

Motor Cycle 241165 1257826 3100130Auto Rickshaw 31053 98917 201790Jeep 14328 33798 79623Motor Cars (3 and 4 wheelers) 52817 141584 357612Taxi Cabs 2896 9069 55487Buses 11203 20011 36264Trucks and Goods Vehicles 44392 119461 319182Tractors 32492 85386 206912Others 28158 107982 118584

All Vehicles 458504 1874034 4475584

IIM Ahmedabad

LPS Coverage for Ahmedabad

Industry LPS Covered Major Emissions

Chemicals Manufacturing 66 CO2, SO2, NOx

Dyes Manufacturing 25 CO2, SO2

Others Industries 9 CO2, SO2

Pharmaceuticals 2 CO2, SO2, NOx

Steel Foundries and Fabrication 94 CO2, SO2

Textile Mills 4 CO2, SO2, NOx

Textile Processing and Dyeing 17 CO2, SO2

IIM Ahmedabad

CO2 Emissions2000 2030

IIM Ahmedabad

SO2 Emissions2000 2030