impact of science on society

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United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, Place de Fontenoy, Paris-7« (France).

Printed in France by Imp. Firmin-Didot. Paris - Mesnil - Ivry. © Uraco 1967. AVS.67/L63/A

C O N T E N T S OF THE PRECEDING ISSUES

Vol. XVI (1966), No. 2 A new look in meteorology, the World Weather Watch, by K . L A N G L O .

Brain and the development of the human person, by J. C. ECCLES

Some impacts of aviation, by L. A. B R Y A N National scientific objectives and the organization of science in Ghana, by J. Y A N N E Y E W U S I E .

Vol. X V I (1966), N o . 3 Chemistry and society: Introduction, by P. P I O A N I O L . Social consequences of the development of agricultural chemistry, by H . R I C H A R D .

Changes in transportation and urban environment, by J. K O L B U S Z E W S K I .

Earthquakes—avoidable disasters, by E . M . F O U R N I E * d'ALBE. A n emergency technical aid service for natural disasters, by E. D . MILLS.

Vol. XVI (1966), No. 4 Chemistry and society: Phyto-chemistry and zoo-chemistry in Hispanic America, by F. GIRAL.

Progress in the chemistry of detergents andits social consequences, by R . C . T A R R I N G .

Seismology and earthquake engineering, by J. H . H O D G S O N .

Vol. XVII (1967), N o . 1 Evolution and its importance to society, by Sir G A V I N D E B E E R . Some aspects of town reconstruction (Warsaw and Skopje), by A . C I B O R O W S K I .

Agrindus : integration of agriculture and industries, by H . H A L P E R I N .

The applications of nuclear energy—technical, economic and social aspects, by J. G A U S S E N S and R . B O N N E T .

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Vol. XVII (1967), No. 2 COIltentS

107 Science popularization in the atomic age, by E . Rabinowitch

Traditionally concerned either with intellectual initiation or with the dissemination of n e w findings for practical appli­cation, science popularization is now faced with a third and urgent responsibility—that of helping nations to appreciate the dangers which science has created for their future as a result of both the destructive powers and the capacity for production it has placed in men's hands. In this article the 1966 Kalinga Prize winner stresses not only the threat of annihilation by modern weapons but also the social conse­quences of the scientific revolution: the material enrichment of one-third of mankind and the relative impoverishment of the remaining two-thirds, further accentuated by scienti­fically-induced demographic trends, and daily rendered less bearable by the 'revolution of rising expectation'. Nations must learn h o w to adapt their ways of life to the inescapable requirements of the scientific age.

115 Major research and development programmes as instruments of economic strategy, by D . Lecer!

Major research and development programmes (the best-known examples of which are the space and nuclear research pro­grammes of the great industrial powers) would appear likely to have tremendous repercussions on the future. O n e of the striking features of this type of organization is that it reverses the traditional research-development-production cycle and takes in the entire process, planned within a fixed schedule (the problem of the time factor is thus overcome); it is characterized by centring a coherent group of projects round a theme drawing in, from above, so to speak, a large number of scientific disciplines and from below a large number of branches of production. Such major programmes m a y be domestic or multilateral. O n account of their attrac­tive and associative power and of their effects in restructuring the industrial armature, they emerge as a n e w instrument in

the domain of State intervention, the initiative in the matter of new developments passing from the enterprise to public authority.

135 The menace of extinct vocanoes, by H . Tazieff

Official surveys show less than 500 active volcanoes in the whole world, but volcanoes which have lain dormant for thousands of years m a y suddenly c o m e violently to life. A s there are several thousand of these, hundreds of millions of people are living under the threat of possible eruptions. Because of their colossal power, nothing can be done to stop eruptions, but modern science can forecast them, and threatened areas could be evacuated in good time. Unfor­tunately, the eruption of a volcano can be forecast only if it is kept under constant observation by teams of properly-equipped geologists, geophysicists and geochemists. N o t even ten of the thousands of volcanoes involved, however, are kept under this sort of observation—one in Hawaii, another in Kamtchatka and half a dozen in Japan. Warnings have been given in good time by forecasting in Hawaii.

The International Institute of Volcanological Research, recently set up in Italy under the aegis of the National Research Council and Unesco, is n o w engaged in the difficult and exacting study of the phenomena of eruptions. Whatever the practical outcome, fundamental understanding of this still very mysterious field of investigation will be considerably advanced by the first continuous analyses ever to have been m a d e on an active volcano.

149 Geothermal power, by C . J. Banwell

The production of geothermal energy from natural hydro-thermal areas has been increasing from the beginning of the twentieth century at a rate comparable with petroleum pro­duction seventy years earlier. A survey of k n o w n volcanic areas throughout the world suggests that full development along similar lines could eventually yield an energy output comparable with the total consumption of all forms of primary energy in 1966. This output could be maintained for a period of the order of centuries. There is, in addition, a virtually inexhaustible source of thermal energy in the earth's crust which can be tapped wherever it is required, by the application of present-day technological methods. The availability of this universally distributed energy source effectively removes the threat of a world heat and power shortage to an indefinitely distant future and, if developed in time, will allow the world stock of fossil fuels to be conserved for a m u c h longer period for those applications, such as air transport and in petro-chemical industries, where they are still irreplaceable.

167 Chemistry and society, V: The development of the varnish and paint industry during the past two decades, by H . Rabaté

The author examines the m a n y uses of the products of the paint, varnish and allied industries, with special emphasis on the crucial problem of preventing the corrosion of construe-

tional materials, using the word corrosion in its widest sense. T h e progress achieved during the past twenty years is due

not only to the efforts of individual nations but also to joint international efforts, a notable example of research co­operation in this field being the work of the O E C D G r o u p of Experts on the biological fouling and corrosion of ships' hulls.

This is followed b y accounts of moves towards standar­dization at both national and international level, of the evo­lution of the manufacturing processes and methods of using the products and finally of the technical, economic and physiological considerations bearing on the use of paint for coloration.

CONTRIBUTORS TO THIS ISSUE

Dr. C. J. BANWELL, DSIR, Geophysics Division, P O Box 8005, Wellington, N e w Zealand

Graduated M . S c . (Physics), Canterbury College, University of N e w Zealand, 1932. Fundamental research in: velocity of light in a magnetic field, 1932-36: radio research (upper atmosphere), 1936-39; radar research and development in United Kingdom, United States, N e w Zealand and Pacific area, 1939-46; radio astronomy (solar noise and meteor research), at Jodrell Bank, University of Manchester, 1946-47; general geophysical research in N e w Zealand, 1947-50; and from 1950 to present time, geothermal research and develop­ment in N e w Zealand, general volcanology, terrestrial heat flow measurements, principally in thermal areas.

Didier L E C E R F , Unesco, Place de Fontenoy, 75 Paris-7«

Deputy Director of the Office of Economic Analysis, Unesco. Graduate, Ecole Normale Supérieure (Paris); agrégé de l'Uni­versité; graduate, Ecole Nationale d'Administration; at one time attached to the Office of M r . Louis Joxe (then Minister of State for Algerian Affairs). Rapporteur of the '1985 Group' responsible to the Commissariat Général du Plan for exploring, from the point of view of future significance, useful information concerning France in 1985 as a basis of orientation for the Fifth Plan. Joint-author of Réflexions pour 1985 (published by La Documentation Française).

Henri R A B A T É 26 rue d'Aumale 75 Parish-

Lecturer (paints and varnishes) at the Ecole Nationale Supé­rieure des Beaux-Arts, Institut Supérieur des Matériaux et de la Construction Mécanique, Ecole Spéciale des Travaux Publics, du Bâtiment et de l'Industrie. Referee, Tribunal de Commerce de la Seine, and engineering expert, Cour d'Appel de Paris and the Tribunal de Grande Instance de la Seine. Rapporteur of the Commission Générale des Peintures to the Association Française de Normalisation. M e m b e r of the O E C D Group of Experts for the study of biological fouling and corrosion of ships' hulls. Founder and editor of two journals: Peintures—Pigments—Vernis and Travaux de Peinture. Compiler of Glossaire Trilingue (français-Anglais-Allemand) Special aux Industries des Cires, Huiles, Gommes, Résines, Pigments, Vernis, Encres, Peintures, Produits d'Entre­tien et Préparations Assimilées. Chairman of the International Commission of the International Union for Pure and Applied Chemistry ( I U P A C ) on terms used in the paint and varnish industry.

E . R A B I N O W I T C H , University of Illinois, Department of Botany, 297 Morril Hall, Urbana, 111., United States

P h . D . (Chemistry) at the University of Berlin in 1926. In 1933 was invited by Niels Bohr to work in Copenhagen. F r o m 1934 to 1937 worked at the University College in London in Professor F . G . Donnan's laboratory. In 1938 joined the staff cf M I T as research associate with the Cabot Solar Energy Research Project. F r o m 1944 to 1947 worked in Chicago in the Information Division of the Metallurgical Project (part of the Manhattan District). Co-author of the Franck Report on political and social implications of atomic energy in June 1945. One of the founders of the Organiza­tion of Atomic Scientists of Chicago and editor of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Active in the Pugwash conferences. Joined the University of Illinois in 1947 to teach advanced courses in photobiology and in biophysics.

W a s elected member of the Boston Academy of Arts and Sciences in 1957. Honorary D . H . L . of Brandeis University in 1960 and, in 1964, Doctor of Science, Dartmouth College. Author of numerous scientific books and articles.

Haroun T A Z I E F F Geologist and agronomist w h o , since 1948, has concentrated 15 quai de Bourbon, on the study of volcanoes. Lectures on volcanology at the 75 Paris-4e unversities of Brussels and Paris and is co-founder of the

International Institute of Volcanological Research at Catania, Italy.

Author of numerous scientific publications, reports of research on such subjects as the mechanism of volcanic and volcanic-seismological phenomena, and several popular science books, including Craters of Fire, When the Earth Trembles, and Volcanoes. Has also m a d e several documentary films: Les Rendez-vous du Diable, Grêle de Feu, Le Gouffre de la Pierre Saint-Martin, L'Exploration Géophysique du Volcan Niragongo, Les Eaux Souterraines, Le Volcan Interdit.

In 1966 he was awarded the Académie Française Jean Walter Prize, the Parkin Prize of the Académie des Sciences, the Grand Prix du Cinéma Français pour la Jeunesse, and the Oscar du Courage.

E . Rabinowitch Science popularization in the atomic age1

In the past, popularization of science had essentially two purposes. The first one was intellectual: to give people without advanced scientific training the chance to participate in the great intellectual adventure of scientific research, to understand the scientific way of searching for truth in nature, and to acquire a feeling for the beauty of the great theoretical constructs of modern science. The other aim was practical: to provide professionally interested people with information which they could use in their work, to help them understand the immediate significance for them of n e w scientific developments—for example, to explain to a doctor the n e w facts discovered by biologists, or to the engineer the new findings of solid state physicists.

A third, n e w purpose of the popularization of science has appeared in our time, w h e n science is becoming decisive for the whole future of humanity. It has given individual nations (particularly the so-called 'great powers') an immerse capacity for destruction, and it has endowed mankind with greatly increased productive capacities. In view of this n e w importance of science, its popularization n o w has a n e w function: that of helping nations to appreciate the dangers which science has created for their future—yes, for the very survival of the h u m a n race on earth—and to understand what science can do to end hunger, poverty and m u c h of the disease n o w wide­spread on earth. W h a t has been in the past but a dream, a Utopia, m a y become, with the age of science, a realistic possibility. It is vital that mankind should acquire adequate understanding of both the destructive and the constructive capacities of science. This alone can permit adaptation of our social structures to man's n e w habitat, created by science, to the n e w conditions of h u m a n existence—conditions which science continues to change from day to day.

1. The text of this article is substantially that of the speech delivered by the author when he was awarded the 1966 Kalinga Prize.

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The destructive power of m o d e m science had burst forth upon mankind on that day in August 1945 w h e n the city of Hiroshima evaporated, and almost 100,000 of its inhabitants were burnt to a crisp, in a matter of seconds, after a single atom b o m b burst a few hundred feet above the ground. A n d this was a b o m b now described as a 'low-power', 'tactical', c o m m o n ­place atom b o m b . W e have learned since h o w to build weapons m a n y thousands of times more powerful—'thermo-nuclear' bombs, a single one of which could destroy a megalopolis of the size of N e w York, Tokyo, M o s c o w or Paris and burn to death not just a few tens of thousands but millions of people dwelling there. W e have also learned h o w to pack this incredible amount of destructive power into a warhead that weighs only one, or a few tons; this has m a d e it worth while to build long-range rockets, which can carry this destruction across the oceans, from any point in the Western Hemisphere to any point in the Eastern Hemisphere (or vice versa). It was possible to develop such long-range rockets earlier; but the cost was m u c h too high to justify their construction as long as all that they could carry overseas was an ordinary high-explosive or incendiary b o m b . Together, the two developments—the thermo-nuclear b o m b and the long-range rocket —have changed the world. Because of them, all of us n o w live but by the grace of G o d and the reasonableness of m e n whose finger is poised, somewhere in a faraway part of the world, on a button that can send such a b o m b to explode in our midst.

Setting aside the apocalyptic visions conjured up by other forms of scien­tific warfare, such as chemical and bacteriological warfare, the combination of thermo-nuclear b o m b and long-range rocket is enough to enable the leaders of certain nations to destroy—if they should ever so desire—all h u m a n and higher animal life on a continent, and to scatter enough radio­activity to m a i m also all higher plant life on it. If m e n have a hope for survival, it is only because a certain residue of rationality can be expected to remain in all nations and their leaders, even in the midst of the gravest political crisis.

W e will live under this threat of annihilation in all future times. M a n can survive on earth only if the weapons created by modern science are never to be used on a large scale, not even once, at any time in the future. Scientists w h o developed the atom b o m b during the Second World W a r early recognized what the introduction of this weapon would m e a n to mankind. In the Franck Report of June 1945 they warned the United States Government against the introduction of the first available atom b o m b s as a legitimate weapon in the war against Japan. It is a matter of history that the warning was not heeded, that the bombs were used; and that since that fateful juncture, a nuclear arms race between major powers has been under way.

I n o w want to mention the second great challenge with which the scientific revolution of our time has confronted mankind. This is the challenge of two-thirds of mankind being destitute, and growing poorer, while one-third

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of mankind is well-fed and is enriching itself further by utilizing the enor­m o u s capacity for production science has put at its disposal.

T h e situation is m a d e even more tragic by the fact that the 'underdeve­loped' two-thirds of mankind are also undergoing another upheaval—a demographic revolution. Application of elementary hygiene and medicine to child-birth and child-rearing practices—another aspect of the scientific revolution—has greatly increased life expectancy at birth everywhere. In some countries which used to be devastated by malaria life expectancy has doubled within a single generation following the introduction of D D T spraying. Because of this beneficial use of science, the population of m a n y countries in the developing world is n o w increasing by 3 or even 4 per cent annually. S o m e nations, such as India, are engaged in a desperate race to keep the increase in agricultural productivity ahead of the increase in popu­lation. In some others, this race is being lost day by day.

Together with this crisis, there has been—again due to the scientific revo­lution—a great change in the readiness of peoples to suffer deprivation, in their willingness to accept miserable life and early death as something given by G o d (or gods), against which there can be no rebellion. The radio, the television, the aeroplanes which fly over the remotest areas of the Old and the N e w World, have opened the eyes of m e n everywhere to the existence of other ways of life, more prosperous, happier (at least, to the extent to which happiness depends on material well-being). This has been called the 'revolution of rising expectations'.

Such are, then, the three main consequences of the scientific revolution— spectacular rise in man's capacity to increase agricultural and industrial pro­ductivity (as well as to regulate the rate of increase of population); the population explosion, and the revolution of rising expectation.

W h a t will happen if w e do not meet the two challenges of the scientific age—the threat of an atomic holocaust, and the danger of the rapidly growing

y populations of the 'underdeveloped' continents sinking deeper and deeper into poverty and hunger?

W h a t will happen if w e do not prevent the misuse of science for destruc­tion has been often discussed. Most people know—even if they tend to forget it—of the desolation that will face the surviving part of mankind in the aftermath of the Third World W a r . W h a t will happen if w e fail to meet the challenge of underdevelopment is not equally clear—but m a y be no less tragic. W h a t will occur, if—as the likelihood is great at the present moment—the continents of South Asia, of South and Central America, of Africa sink into increasing destitution and despair; if they enter the worst hunger period in history—a fate which m a n y demographers and nutrition specialists consider likely? I do not know, and I hope w e shall never have to discover the answer to this question.

If I m a y be permitted a political remark, w e have seen, in recent years, attempts to spread throughout the developing world what I would call the

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'Chinese credo'—the idea of a rebellion of the starving (and largely coloured) 'world village', not only against the iniquities of capitalist exploi­tation, or colonialist domination, but against the whole technically advanced 'white' civilization, against the prosperous 'world city' of Europe and North America. Several attempts to spread this gospel have failed; but what are the chances that the victors in these early upheavals, the generals w h o have n o w in their hands the fate of m a n y developing countries, will succeed in ensuring economic viability and a hopeful future for these countries? The problems they are facing are terribly difficult. The aid which developing nations receive from abroad is woefully insufficient. If they fail, the preachers of hate and rebellion of the destitute 'South' against the prosperous 'North' are likely to find m a n y n e w and eager followers.

W h a t can science do in the face of these challenges? H o w can it help? Mankind needs n o w , as it never did before, the spread of objective, scientific attitudes, to permit an effective approach to the solutions of the problems created by science. These problems cannot be solved by slogans, by recourse to ideological dogmas, by the free play of political passions. This applies to development as well as, if not more than, to disarmament and world security. All these problems the technically advanced nations of the West and the East should be able to solve, but only if they approach them rationally and co-operatively, disregarding national rivalries and ideological conflicts, in recognition of their c o m m o n interest in avoiding c o m m o n disasters. Unfor­tunately, there is not m u c h evidence that this is what is happening n o w .

For some years after the war, there was an increasingly broad awareness of the dangers of nuclear war, a growing readiness to forego nationalist traditions and accept the forms of international organization needed to m a k e war impossible. The confrontation between the United States of America and the U . S . S . R . over nuclear missiles in C u b a led, a few years ago, to a climax of world-wide concern with the threat of a nuclear war. Since then, a reverse trend has set in. W e hear soothing assertions to the effect that since nuclear weapons have not been used since 1945, they will never be used. People have become accustomed to their existence; they have learned to 'live with them'. T w o political scientists, reviewing m y book, The Dawn of a New Age, wrote that the world has n o w lived with the atom b o m b s for twenty years, and none has gone up (since 1945) in anger or by accident —therefore, they went on, there must be something wrong with the dire warnings of scientists about the dangers of the nuclear arms race. This smugness is becoming widespread. The readiness to accept an international order, a rule of law in international affairs (which alone could put an end to the arms race and start building a securely peaceful world) is on the decline; instead, w e witness a new explosion of nationalism, in both old countries of Europe, and new States in Asia, Africa and South America. W e are well on the w a y back to international anarchy, to 'every nation for itself and the devil take the hindmost'.

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A s to the second challenge of the scientific revolution, it is a sad fact that the amounts of money spent by advanced nations on technical and economic assistance are n o w decreasing, rather than increasing. A n d yet these amounts have never been adequate (except in the relatively easy case of the Marshall Plan of aid to post-war Europe). They have not been suffi­cient to bring about a break-through towards self-sustained development, to permit the 'take-off', as economists call it, in more than a few, small, isolated countries. A n d this aid is n o w decreasing. In m a n y countries in Latin America, Africa and Asia, the results are disappointing; foreign aid has neither created lasting political friendship nor initiated hopeful economic progress. In development, as in disarmament, w e n o w see no significant movement forward, but stagnation and slackening of efforts.

G o o d things are being done by Unesco, F A O , W H O and other agencies of the United Nations; but the scale of their efforts is small and the support they receive from the m e m b e r nations, great and small, is reluctant and inadequate.

Scientists all over the world understand the critical situation. In the Pugwash conferences no doubt is expressed, by scientists from both East and West, from the South as well as from the North, about the urgency of the challenges of the scientific era. They all hope for a world system that will permit the cessation of the nuclear arms race and far-reaching—or even complete—progress towards disarmament; they all see the need for a m u c h greater effort by the technologically advanced nations to help the developing world.

At the recent Pugwash meeting in Sopot (Poland), I submitted a paper suggesting that an early step towards disarmament m a y be for the great powers to agree on simultaneous transfer of substantial funds (of the order of several billion dollars annually) from their military budgets to an interna­tional effort in developmental aid to new nations. (This proposal was derived from suggestions m a d e by a Soviet chemist at the preceding Pugwash Conference in Addis Ababa, devoted to the problem of science and deve­lopment of n e w countries.) T h e rationale of this proposal is to tie up the c o m m o n negative aim—to slow down the arms race—with a c o m m o n positive aim—to invest m a n y times what is being invested n o w , in a world­wide effort towards the development of underdeveloped continents. This tie-up, I argued, might make the first step in disarmament not only more acceptable, but also easier to verify.

A very important point is that the development effort should be under­taken co-operatively by all donor nations, from M o s c o w to Washington (with Paris, London, and B o n n in between), and involve a co-operative organization of developing areas on the receiving side. M u c h of the assis­tance effort is n o w going to waste; this is one of the main reasons w h y the willingness for aid is decreasing. It is wasted—this became clear at the Pugwash Conference at Addis Ababa—because it is allocated without

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rational planning and with largely political aims in mind. It is used to m a k e a receiving country favourably inclined to a donor nation, often by helping its government to build palaces, atomic reactors or other spectacular struc­tures. These do serve the greater glory of the local ruler; but they do not contribute to the economic development of the country. Scientists from the n e w countries complained in Addis A b a b a that they have little, if any, influence on the developmental plans of their o w n governments. They appealed to scientists from the developed countries, East and West, to urge the donor governments to adopt rational approaches to development prob­lems, to support competent research and objective evaluation of the natural resources of the developing areas so as to identify objectively the projects which could be of the greatest economic advantage. In areas which have c o m m o n problems, such as the great river basins in Africa or South America, developmental effort should be integrated (as is attempted n o w in the lower M e k o n g valley).

These are some of the aims scientists of all nations can and should work for. They must continue to remind nations that they all live on an atomic powder magazine, to which more and more explosive material is being added, a powder magazine that could go up one day by the foolish act of a single national leader. They must keep alive the worry, concern and indig­nation over the absurdity of this situation, over the senseless accumulation and proliferation of weapons which nobody in his proper mind can plan to use. Billions and billions of dollars are being spent, in Washington and in M o s c o w , in Paris and in Peking, on developing and storing arms which do not have rational justification, not even the justification which battleships, tanks, or war-planes (not to speak of cross-bows and muskets) have had in the past—a realistic possibility of using them either for national defence against aggression or for national expansion. Such rational use of weapons has become impossible since 1945; the arms race which has been going on since then does not have even the limited rationale which arms races (and wars) have had in the past. It is all a nightmare, shadow-boxing—heaping up unimaginably destructive weapons which have no rational use whatsoever, either in the hands of the smaller nations which aim to acquire a minimal nuclear arsenal, or in the hands of the 'great' powers which already possess tens of thousands of nuclear weapons.

Equally urgent is the second task of the scientists—to maintain pressure for rational, scientific, non-partisan, co-operative approaches to the immensely difficult problem of world development, of bringing all humanity into the mainstream of a scientific-technological civilization—the only viable civi­lization in the habitat science has created for mankind.

This is n o w the main task of science popularization : to educate mankind for living in the n e w world created by the scientific revolution.

This is not a short-range, emergency operation. This is what science popu­larization will have to be about for a long time to come. Science cannot be

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satisfied n o w with explaining to the layman the structure of the nuclear reactor or of a long-range rocket, the molecular architecture of the gene or the working of a wonder drug. The understanding of science is n o w needed for a m o r e crucial purpose than intellectual enjoyment—it is needed to teach nations h o w to adapt their ways of life (particularly their ways of interna­tional life) to the inescapable requirements of the scientific age.

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D . Lecerf Major research and development programmes as instruments of economic strategy

The author of this article does not claim to introduce the reader for the first time to what will here be called 'major programmes', as opposed to unco­ordinated research.

Space research (in the United States and the U . S . S . R . ) and nuclear research provide the best-known examples, and comprise a coherent combination of projects concerning, at one and the same time, research, development and production (at least of prototypes). Such programmes often have behind them a special body set up for the purpose (e.g., the National Aeronautics and Space Administration ( N A S A ) ). They m a y be national (like the French Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique or the recently-adopted Plan-Calcul), bilateral (the pro­g r a m m e for the construction of the Concord supersonic airliner could probably by regarded as a major programme) and even multilateral ( C E R N , E U R A T O M and the European rocket project show h o w intellectual co-operation can lead to practical action);for, owing to their dimensions, major programmes must often be carried out on a very extensive economic scale and at the international level.

A s far as science policy is concerned, major programmes need no vindi­cation, since most scientists acknowledge the effectiveness of the technique. Indeed, several international meetings organized by Unesco have recommen­ded major programmes.

This does not mean that everything should be integrated into major pro­grammes; in science policy, allowance must be m a d e for 'unco-ordinated research'. It is undoubtedly the task of university laboratories, for instance, to carry out basic research which is neither problem-focused nor designed to fit into any particular programme, because latitude must be left for unpredictable, original ideas.

Nor does this mean that major programmes can be applied in just any context; one of the prerequisites for these programmes is basic research, but they, in their turn, m a y be a means, working back to source, of inducing the development of such research.

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It does not m e a n , either, that the formidable deontological problems, which are the inevitable price of the effectiveness of major programmes as a method of organizing research, should be disregarded. The establishment of the appropriate structures does not in fact go forward without friction and resistance on the part of the economic agents concerned. The extent of the powers conferred upon such bodies calls for serious reflection upon their value as decision-makers and supervisors. Whereas, with the usual method of organization, the community of research workers exerts a regu­lating influence through academic discussion, the practice of programming by project which is typical of major programmes ends by replacing this intellectual control by control through the assessment of results. The autho­rity responsible for a major programme m a y be obliged to take chances and be exposed to considerable pressure in regard to the choice of projects, objectives and economic agents.

There is reason to suppose that industrial society is still far from having discovered ways of mastering the research factor in an age of science and technology, and that the conduct of major programmes will lead to a secon­dary development of the social sciences—a sort of sociology of research— particularly on account of the vast problems to be solved from the point of view of organization and structures, receptiveness to new ideas, the channelling of technological progress (which m a y shatter societies), and so on.

With regard to economic development, the most controversial point seems to be this: what is the ultimate purpose of major programmes? For it is a fact that the best-known examples of major programmes—with their space and nuclear research activities, often linked to the arms race—are not those that most faithfully reflect the aims of mankind and of development.

There can be no doubt about their attractive power. They are certainly a means of drawing large resources to research and development, techno­logical progress and the building up of 'know-how' . They are apt, however, to cause considerable distortions in the (often frail) industrial structure of countries of medium economic stature. Indeed, w e m a y say of them what is said of military programmes, namely that the medium powers should beware of being carried away by a spirit of emulation which, in weakening their economic potential by leading them to spend too m u c h on defence, prevents them from attaining the ends of their political project, of which eco­nomic growth alone is often the main justification. Attention should therefore be paid to keeping a proper balance between economic development efforts and those devoted to major programmes.

But this is not the only matter deserving attention; there is also the ques­tion of adding as m u c h as possible to the store of h u m a n knowledge (through the joint endeavours of mankind as a whole). For economists, however, the main attraction of major programmes is that they are instruments: (a) in the broad, diversified domain of State intervention, major programmes are assum­ing growing importance and are regarded as a n e w form of economic lever;

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(b) it has recently been realized that major programmes are valuable instru­ments of industrial strategy.

W o u l d it not then be better to forget certain things which m a k e us auto­matically associate major programmes with the nuclear and space themes of 'big science' and with conditions in the highly developed countries, and the industrial giants in particular? W h y not contemplate applying this instrument to different activities and making it serve different purposes? W h a t methods would enable developing countries to benefit by it? Such are the problems with which I shall try to deal in this article.

INSTRUMENTAL VALUE OF MAJOR P R O G R A M M E S

Major programmes—a new tool in the domain of State intervention

Although the Soviet Union's research and development effort has, in m a n y respects, served as a model and prototype, it is in the United States that the revolutionary nature of the implementation of major programmes is the most striking. Behind it of course are the needs created by defence and United States space policy. But it is also evident that a new m o d e of eco­nomic organization is emerging.

O n 13 July 1964, D r . Albert Keeley, Director of Electronics and Control, N A S A Advanced Research Bureau, addressed a gathering of United States electronics industrialists. The gist of his statement was that the United States was entering a period of transition which was working a radical change in the nation's political, economic and social life. T h e magnitude of that transition was not generally understood. . . . It was really a case of a third revolution, following on from the industrial revolution of the nineteenth century and the American political revolution of the eighteenth century. T h e scientific revolution would have still greater effects on the life of the nation than the two previous ones had done.

W h a t is 'revolutionary' about the major programme phenomenon? Major programmes are not confined to developing research but, covering

the whole chain from basic research to the industrial concretization of new ideas, they reverse the traditional research-development-production cycle. For they begin by laying d o w n the characteristics that n e w products should have and, working back up the line, they deduce, from the need thus iden­tified, the action required at the level of development and research. This is an essentially voluntaristic attitude towards discovery.

It is particularly significant that, in this type of organization, an attempt is m a d e to integrate the time factor, hitherto considered as comparatively independent and irreducible. T h e launching of 'new products' is subjected to a hard and fast time schedule, because it m a y be of vital importance to reduce the sometimes very long interval between the discovery of a theore­tical principle and its industrial application.

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This m a x i m u m saving of time in the research-development-production cycle is itself the outcome of a n e w type of programming, which substitutes for the traditional system of programming by discipline that of programming by project. A major programme is in fact a coherent combination of projects centred round a key theme which, owing to its dynamic nature and its eco­nomic 'fall-out', draws in a large number of scientific disciplines and branches of production. This programming opens up a new field of studies and n e w materials and thus prompts the most advanced firms to maintain high-calibre research teams, to increase the latter's creative capacity and to build up knowledge and means directly usable in actual economic markets. Hence, it is clear that the major programme technique goes very far beyond that of 'concerted action', which is simply multidisciplinary.

H o w is it that this reversal is possible? Behind it is a prodigious increase in public expenditure on research and

development. In the United States, the funds allocated to research and deve­lopment rose, between 1940 and 1965, from $250 to $20,000 million, tripling over the last ten years alone; and most of the funds (70 per cent of the total) are of public origin, public financing reaching 85 per cent for some branches.

Major programmes in the United States have the practical effect of creating monopsony—i.e., a market situation in which a single buyer faces a large number of sellers. T h e situation enables the United States Government to m a k e private enterprises allow it to lay down specific objectives, to choose what it considers to be the best means, and to exercise supervision throughout —in short, to set up an organization which will ensure the conduct of these various operations and go fairly thoroughly into details.

There has been m u c h talk of the importance of public financing of research and development in the United States, but without always laying enough emphasis on the consequent changes.

The traditional method has been for the government merely to give m o n e y to laboratories and await the research results. Research laboratories are comparatively isolated from the industrial market and produce a greater or lesser number of original ideas, which m a k e their w a y slowly through the development structure. Most of these ideas fall by the wayside; but some of them (one in 2,400 according to certain United States experts) finally reach the workshop.

The new method brought into being by the major programmes on the contrary challenges the traditional administrative machinery, creates links between State, industry and universities within small bodies of a n e w kind, and sets up one huge organization capable of launching new products within a given time.

It would doubtless be wise, in studying this organization, to guard against an enthusiasm which might blind us to the considerable problems involved. T h e establishment of these n e w structures does not in fact go forward without friction and resistance on the part of the economic agents concerned.

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The reason for the bitter controversy raised in the United States by the recent establishment of the N A S A Electronic Research Centre at Boston was that this body is in practice responsible for planning the whole of research in space electronics and is able to enforce its decisions. N o w , as has already been pointed out, the extent of the powers conferred on such a body raises the question of its soundness as a decision-maker (choice of objectives, projects and economic agents) and supervisor.

At all events, from the standpoint of economic analysis, the following pomfs can here and n o w be noted.

Initiative for new developments passes from the enterprise to the major programme, i.e., to the public authorities. In so far as the great technological future becomes less and less dependent on the decisions of the private entre­preneur, w e m a y well wonder what is left of Schumpeter's concept of the 'creative entrepreneur', w h o was notable precisely for his role in innovation.

Major programmes exercise a great deal of pull; in fact public major programmes orient the objectives of the large industrial groups (a list of n e w products—or services—to be launched in accordance with a specific time­table), the future time-table of the major programmes serving as a frame­work for the time-table of the groups. F r o m that there emerges a complex network of relations between the large groups and the small and m e d i u m -sized firms through the mechanism of subcontracting, but with the public authorities stepping in to ensure the requisite synchronization (there are special services—concerned with small business administration—responsible for following the problems of sub-contractors). This n e w kind of public intervention seems well on the way to overriding the classical instruments of State action in the matter of economic stimulation, namely currency and credit, the taxation system, the budget and government orders (where 'major works policy' is concerned).

A less important part of the future time-table consists in using the 'tech­nical fall-out' of major programmes in order to solve problems which are small in themselves but m a y be obstacles to the satisfactory marketing of new products. The United States has for some years been engaged in spreading to industry the esoteric scientific progress m a d e in the course of military, nuclear and space programmes, the m o m e n t the results are declassi­fied. However, though the major programmes were initiated in the United States to win the arms and space race (which are non-economic aims), labo­rious calculation of the famous 'technical fall-out' in the civilian domain has by no means succeeded in determining its full economic effects. T h e most important is the commercial utilization of this enormous machine designed to launch new products in accordance with a fixed time-table.

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Major programmes as an instrument of industrial strategy

At the same time there is a nascent awareness in Europe of the revolutio­nary nature of this tool and its economic implications, namely its challenge to European economies in a world where the opening up of frontiers makes competition a matter of life and death. This new awareness is interesting in several respects: it links the major programme technique to industrial strategy; this strategy is defined as that of countries of m e d i u m or modest economic stature in a world dominated by superpowers; and, by transposing the major programme technique from its United States context, it brings out the value of such programmes as generally applicable instruments.

It is first of all an awareness of the dominating influence that the imple­mentation of major programmes by industrial giants exerts on countries with a modest economy, and particularly of the gradual loss of freedom of deci­sion in economic affairs which, for the latter countries, seems to be the natural result.

A s an illustration of this awareness, the Commission Permanente de l'Electronique du Plan (France) notes in substance, at the end of 1965, that w e are witnessing a vast concentration of research and development in the matter of computers in the United States, and that, broadly speaking, the activity of European firms is confined to manufacturing with techniques developed on the other side of the Atlantic.

In this domain the Commission detects the appearance of a trend whose effect is cumulative and irreversible and whose logical consequence is a state of under-development. In support of this argument it analyses an actual case, that of I B M France. T h e percentages given by the Commission 1 show that, quantitatively speaking, I B M France does far less research than I B M United States.

The proportion of turnover represented by the firm's expenditure on research shows that in relative terms I B M United States does four times more research than I B M France. In terms of manpower the discrepancy is smaller, but that is due to the difference between the cost of the French research worker and that of his opposite number in the United States.

The Commission notes secondly that this situation, where specialization in the activity tends to give the United States firm the m o r e exalted occupa­tions and the French subsidiary the donkey work, is further aggravated by the system of exploiting research results. Research by I B M France is done under contract from the parent firm, any research results being the exclusive property of the parent firm and being patented in the United States. For use of the whole range of I B M patents, including those for which it was

1. Expenditure on research and development (total turnover): I B M United States, 8 per cent; I B M France, 2 per cent. Manpower used in research and development (total manpower): I B M United States, 12 per cent; I B M France, 5 per cent.

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originally responsible, I B M France pays dues fixed and collected by the parent firm.

These dues are far higher than the research contracts awarded by the parent firm (55 million francs as against 26 million francs in 1964). So there is a very large deficit in the 'grey matter' balance, and one which appears to increase regularly. This deficit was only just m a d e good in 1964 by exports of equipment manufactured by I B M France; but the Commission e m p h a ­sizes that the organization as a whole means that a firm situated in France has to pay for 'grey matter' (including its own) with manual labour.

There is likewise an awakening to the decisive role of research and deve­lopment in economic competition.

In an international context which is vigorously competitive and domi­nated by the United States economy, the progress of European industry depends primarily on its capacity for invention, innovation and improvement of techniques.

Owing to modern progress in transport, possession of domestic raw mate­rials has become a secondary economic factor. T h e extension of production cycles works in the same way, since the cost of raw materials tends to account for an increasingly small proportion of the price of end products. A s the part played by the natural conditions of the geological and geogra­phical environment diminishes in importance, economic differences between the nations will henceforth depend more and more on the value of their total material capital and of their h u m a n capital, the former being governed in the long run by the latter.

Europe should therefore strive to take up its position, in the scheme of international exchanges, at the level appropriate to the 'quality' which it is able to give its inhabitants. If it confines itself to selling semi-finished pro­ducts it will be making bad use of its h u m a n potential and, in a world of open frontiers, will soon be swamped by finished products. Maintenance of the balance of payments will require an over-all increase of traditional exports, and the European economy will find itself confined increasingly to the production of comparatively unsophisticated goods with a small 'grey matter' content. Should this be carried to the extreme, Europe as a region will become an importer of patents and an exporter of brains.

At the same time there is a growing awareness of the need for selective strategy in industrial development. For there is a prevalent feeling that, in a world dominated by superpowers, countries which are of medium economic stature (either because they are small or because of the weak industrial composition of their economies) should choose sectors in which to concen­trate their efforts to evolve and to withstand the assaults of the United States economy and of competing industrial countries. A n unpublished report pre­pared in 1965 at the request of the French Government notes in substance that as long as it remained under the protection of customs and contingency barriers, Europe could continue to produce everything and claim to export

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everything with its units of often inadequate size and its frequently out-of-date methods. Today, the advance of competition and the invasion of foreign capital, in an international environment where the opening up of frontiers introduces an atmosphere of fiercer competition, m e a n that Europe can no longer disregard the need for selective industrial strategy.

In practice, a choice should be m a d e for each branch between various courses of action: 1. Organizing the cutting d o w n of production, particularly in the case of

large sectors that are expensive for the community as a whole, which implies readiness to count on imports instead of obstinately exploiting poor deposits and barren land, or underemploying h u m a n resources not put to the best use for want of vocational training.

2 . Accepting foreign penetration, this attitude being conceivable in several situations: manifestly limited progress of the particular branch, expected benefits with regard to technique and competition, inadequacy of domestic production, and so on.

3. Organizing the development of the branch either in its present structure, particularly by means of aid to research and development, or after reor­ganization of the structure through merging and specialization, that ope­ration too being accompanied by aid to research and development and being carried out on a national or an international scale.

In this context, there is a widespread conviction in Europe that major pro­grammes are a choice instrument of this aid to research and development in those sectors where efforts should be concentrated. T h e above-mentioned report on industrial research stresses that, in the European countries, research will not be able to attain in every sector the same degree of effec­tiveness as in countries with far greater financial, material and h u m a n resources; and in no individual sector will a European country be able to keep the lead in all applicable techniques. International division of labour, however, m a y be so arranged that, although the choices m a d e m a y imply the sacrifice of a number of key activities for which Europe will be depen­dent on other countries, European countries will be among the leaders in their selected areas.

Once the likely areas of strength have been identified, there should be concentration on those activities which, owing to their dynamic nature, broad scope and 'economic fall-out', are such as to draw in a great m a n y sectors of activity and scientific disciplines; and they should be m a d e the subject of major programmes. Recourse to the major programme technique is the answer to limited resources and the will to maximize the return on industrial research work geared to economic objectives.

T h e result of this selective industrial strategy is a similarly selective strategy in the choice of subjects for major programmes; and there are subjects to choose from other than the exploration of outer space and nuclear research. Apart from the obvious subject of data processing, other subjects

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that c o m e to mind are the exploitation of oceans and the problem of water and primary resources (or other subjects connected with the development of natural resources).

There are also 'median themes' connected with major operations, or pro­posed for their intrinsic worth. These themes are vertical if their economic ends are their distinguishing feature (transport, machine tools, energy conver­sion and fuel cells, water-powered dynamos, etc.); and they are horizontal when their use is c o m m o n to a large number of sectors (materials and metals, unit operations in industry, polymerization and substitution of synthetic for traditional materials, precision measurement and equipment, etc.).

It is significant that in France the working group on industrial research recently recommended that 75 per cent of State appropriations for develop­ment should go to major operations, 15 per cent to median themes and 10 per cent to unco-ordinated research.

Major programmes and the developing countries

Major programmes are not bound up with 'big science' themes. N o r are they the prerogative of the industrial giants. They are, in the hands of countries of modest economic stature, an instrument of industrial strategy.

Does this hold good for the developing countries too? There are a number of indications to support the belief.

These countries are subject to dominating influences with regard to research and development which, if no sector of activity were spared, would condemn their entire economies to the menial tasks of supplying raw materials or, at best, to sub-contracting and processing, the more exalted operations being conducted in the industrialized countries. In this respect major programmes m a y be regarded as the prerequisite for gaining access to the great techno­logical future and the instrument without which these countries will be unable to ensure their freedom of decision in economic matters.

Recourse to major programmes is the answer to the inadequate dimen­sions of the industrial armature; and it is all the more important for the developing countries to choose the sectors in which to concentrate their research and development efforts. In so doing they will assist the interna­tional division of labour instead of submitting passively to the forces that control it.

Recourse to major programmes is the answer to limited resources, for in international competition it is not so m u c h the percentages of the gross national product allocated to research and development as efforts in abso­lute terms which condition a break-through on the international market. It would thus seem particularly expedient to gear the main lines of research and development efforts to economic objectives. Unco-ordinated research would appear to be more in the nature of a luxury reserved for the industrial giants.

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T h e developing countries are already devoting very considerable efforts to education, but are not making the best use of the qualified people turned out by the educational system. Recourse to major programmes m a y be the answer to this poor use of the scientific élite w h o find refuge in business administration, and could lead to a redistribution of qualified personnel a m o n g the various sectors.

In addition to these arguments based on the developing countries' eco­nomic situation, the position as regards research suggests striking c o m p a ­risons. Its main features are: the relatively small proportion of resources devoted to research and development; the importance of the public sector in industrial research; concentration of effort in a few sectors and even in a few firms, and an almost total absence of any research activity in m a n y sectors; very little State assistance, which is sporadic and seldom channelled towards economically significant operations.

These characteristics also apply to a number of European countries and are just as sound an argument for adoption of the major programme technique to increase the economic efficiency of the research and development effort.

T h e objection has been raised that an independent research and deve­lopment effort often represents a very considerable financial burden for the developing countries, and that it is often more advantageous to buy licences. In fact this is not really an objection because implementation of a major programme does not m e a n that all progress must derive from an independent research and development effort. O n the contrary, it is desirable to import, whenever possible, the most advanced foreign techniques necessary for a major operation. T h e essence of this selective strategy is to direct the inde­pendent research and development effort towards the gaps in the competition —where, consequently, the competitors are not in the lead technically and where it is possible to be or to become the strongest. I shall return later to this notion of 'gap-filling' which is a feature of such selective strategy.

O n the other hand, the systematic exclusion of any independent research effort would also be a policy incompatible with this selective strategy; to wait until the industrial giants have developed their research effort in the hope of buying licences from them would be to run the risk of seeing rivals secure a decisive advantage and refuse to concede it. There is increasing evidence that where a licence represents a competitive advantage the holder agrees to concede it only in exchange for other licences also involving c o m ­petitive advantages.

T h e further objection has been raised that, on account of their size alone, major programmes exceed the capacities of the developing countries, and that the success of these major operations depends on the existence of firms whose financial and material dimensions are great enough to meet the conse­quent requirements.

Such an objection generally reflects the fascination exercised by the current major programmes of the industrial giants in space exploration and nuclear

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research. But the very purpose of this selective strategy is to seek other themes more in keeping with development needs and to get rid of this association of ideas which distorts the true nature of major programmes. These are not to be identified with certain themes or stipulated m i n i m u m dimensions; what distinguishes them is that they reverse the traditional research-development-production cycle and cover the complete process or trajectory, keeping to a hard and fast time-table. They are, therefore, to be regarded as a programming method whereby a coherent combination of projects is centred round a theme which has a strong power of attraction and association both for several scientific disciplines and for several branches of production.

Since the industrial armature of the developing countries is weak , major programmes are just what is needed to stimulate the growth of domestic production units or implement projects on an international basis.

Multinational major programmes would, of course, find firm support in such international action as might be taken, for instance, by Unesco. The major programme technique is indeed commonly employed by international organizations. But it is important that it should become part of the practice of M e m b e r States so that multinational major programmes are tailored to the development needs of the countries concerned. It is likewise important to work out a methodology for the preparation and application of major programmes. So far as development planning is concerned, this approach should entail practical application of the proposed selective strategy.

OUTLINE OF A M E T H O D O L O G Y FOR THE APPLICATION OF MAJOR P R O G R A M M E S

This methodology comprises the following stages: definition of an economic strategy; identification of critical dependencies; selection of themes for major programmes.

It is worked out at the national level, where science policy decisions are taken.

Because it is based on recognition of the disproportion between domi­nant economies and small or m e d i u m economic powers, and because it lays d o w n techniques enabling economies of modest stature to struggle against the cumulative effects of domination, this methodology is eminently suitable for developing countries.

It does not imply the previous existence of a powerful industrial armature, but simply that of a certain industrial future. N o r does it imply the previous existence of a long scientific tradition or of a large body of research workers, but only an urge to take part in the great technological future of mankind and an education system capable of producing a certain scientific potential in due course. Far from being characteristic of the highly developed countries, it implies no more than the will to develop. In so far as domination tends

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to paralyse this will, there is a concomitant need to maintain a certain inde­pendence of the centres of economic decision, but this in no w a y implies pursuit of the autarchic dream of an impossible economic self-sufficiency. This method enables us to turn major programmes into instruments adapted to the needs of the developing countries.

Attention needs to be given to the uses which can be found for this methodology in the frame of reference of international action.

Its application is obvious in respect of technical assistance for science policy: international co-operation is enlisted for the preparation of national major programmes.

Again note needs to be taken of Unesco's action in the matter of inter­national scientific co-operation, which has given rise to such activities as oceanographical research, the Hydrological Decade, brain research and the study of the earth's crust and the upper mantle, and has permitted of the formation of themes for numbers of major programmes for which the funds released by disarmament could be used—e.g., food resources and biological productivity, exploitation of mineral and chemical resources, energy sources, construction and utilization of high-performance computers, and so on.

T h e time would seem to have c o m e to measure such possible major pro­grammes (whose natural outcome would be operational) against the metho­dology of using major programmes for development; this would permit of an assessment in concrete terms of h o w far the needs of economic deve­lopment determine the affinities between a given major programme and a given country or group of countries, and tend to upgrade particular major programmes which should be regarded as priority operations (or warranting of especially large resources). The precedent of C E R N shows that intellec­tual co-operation can be converted into operational action and that interna­tional co-operation could then find an outlet in the conduct of multinational major programmes.

N o doubt the resultant distribution of major programme themes in space (by geographical area) and in time (by order of priority) would in the main amount to a set of hypothetical possibilities; but it would constitute a guide to work on and would, in particular, bring about the preparation of a series of suggestions methodically propounded which could be raised at ministe­rial conferences. T h e object would thus be to effect the convergence of intellectual co-operation and operational action by giving a science-policy content to the global quantitative projections prepared for such conferences as C A S T A S I A and by presenting prospects sufficiently attractive to induce international initiatives for the promoting of the multinational major projects proportioned to the major economic regions. T h e fact is that, apart from certain national major programmes adapted to the needs and possibilities of certain countries of the requisite economic stature, the dimensions of m a n y major programmes are such as to require co-operation between several States.

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Thus the methodology suggested would conduce to enlisting the major programmes for the purposes of international co-operation, for which they would supply both an incitement and a concrete frame of reference.

It must be recognized that u p to n o w operational co-operation between developing countries has encountered considerable difficulties as a conse­quence of the exiguity of their several scientific potentials, the capacity of each to contribute to a c o m m o n enterprise being insirfficient to form a truly effective operating force. However, the first quantitative pointers emerging from the preparatory work for C A S T A S I A are that in the near future this scientific potential will no longer be so limited and that the training systems will be in a position to produce researchers in adequate numbers. T h e problem is to determine the extent of the needs by reference to the future programmes, and there are grounds for thinking that the existence of major programmes would not only provide adequate openings but would also serve to channel large numbers of highly qualified personnel to research and development activities.

Further, it is not out of the question that the application of the proposed methodology would m a k e it possible to get better results from poolings of limited resources. Just as, at national level, the systematizing effect produced by the major programme creates greater efficiency, so it is conceivable that, at international level, a major programme geared to the economic develop­ment needs of the countries involved would contribute to a rational ordering of the international division of the tasks and to organizing the concerting of efforts. Instead of requiring an effort in an identical direction from all the countries concerned and thus producing a form of emulation more costly than effective, a major programme designed by a rigorous metho­dology should call for a different kind of contribution from each country; this specialization, its framework constituted by the various national pro­jects, would serve the ends both of the c o m m o n enterprise and of each country's development.

Planning and economic strategy

The problem. The idea of planning an over-all economic strategy integrating the strategies of the economy's different sectors is seductive but quite cer­tainly Utopian. T o achieve it the first necessity would be to estimate the trend of demand in the future, involving the determination in detail of the existing position of the individual sectors of industry in relation to their foreign competitors and projection of the model thus constructed as a func­tion of the foreseeable evolution of needs and techniques, with several variants. After that one would have to work out the combination of deci­sions which best fitted each variant of the model, having regard to the country's general aims and subject to a diversity of constraints (political, social, etc.).

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In the present state of our knowledge it is impossible to construct such a model of spontaneous evolution. That being so, does the impossibility of working out an economic strategy on wholly scientific foundations m e a n that w e must accordingly rely passively on market mechanisms? T h e answer is certainly N o . Planning cannot abdicate from trying and in the absence of a fully calculated strategy it resorts to an empirical approach. Since State intervention (on m o r e or less deliberate lines) occurs in any event, the empi­rical approach is justified as a means of ordering these interventions with greater coherence. It can alternatively lead to the acceleration of certain developments judged ineluctable or to the creation, for branches of industry judged specially promising or essential to a complex industrial economy, of conditions for development which the dynamics of the market had denied them.

The empirical approach. The basis of the empirical approach is the undoubted fact that in a world dominated by super powers, the countries of modest economic stature (whether this is because they are small countries or because of the weak industrial structure of their economies) most urgently need to select those sectors in which to concentrate their development efforts and their resistance to the assaults of the industrial giants and of foreign industrial competitors. The climate of intensified competition thus makes a selective economic strategy inevitable.

For the purposes of the empirical ,approach a distant horizon could be selected, e.g., 1985. T h e first phase would be to attempt to identify the branches of activity, in the prospective economic structure, constituting the industrial armature desirable for the country, working on widely volitive criteria: the 'status' of the branch, its foreseeable rate of expansion and its volume.

T h e notion of the status of a branch of industry reflects an intuitive idea that certain activities are situated higher in the scale than others. Thus elec­tronics is superior to textiles and textile-manufacturing is superior to earth-moving. The motivations of this assessment are complex but the difficulty of the particular type of activity, its technical complexity and the qualifica­tions required for it seem to be determining factors. It is in the branches thus selected that the effort of research and innovation will be most intensive and most necessary.

F r o m the practical angle, it would seem possible to assess the status of a given branch of industry from one or more of the following elements: proportion of skilled personnel to total labour force, number of patents used or registered, frequency of improved versions of the product and relative importance of research and development.

Careful attention should be given to what the foreseeable rate of expan­sion indicates: to get the best value out of the technical advances achieved by the research effort, it is advisable to choose those branches which have

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the best future development prospects. This choice is of great importance for the balance of external trade.

The classification of industrial branches by volume can also serve as a guide for action, since, other things being equal, it is advantageous to favour the industries bulking largest in the economy. T h e value added to market prices can be used as an indicator of the volume of each industry.

In the second phase the initial highly volitive judgement would be modified by bringing in such considerations as obvious functional expediency (thus food-processing industries are generally located in the centres of the pro­ducing zones because their raw materials are more perishable than their products); inherited advantages, so long as they are not out of date; the extent of foreign investment in an industry; capacity for research and inno­vation; and industry's structure from the dimensional point of view as c o m ­pared with that of the same industry in foreign countries.

Certainly it is outside Unesco's province to recommend particular indus­trial strategies to particular countries. Nevertheless, in educational planning, where similar difficulties arise, the problem has been overcome. In the field of science policy, Unesco is competent and will base its action on the choices m a d e by national development plans in the matter of industrial strategy.

Identification of critical areas of dependence

A precondition for applying the economic strategy thus arrived at is securing the independence of the decision-making centres in the branches of the economy selected; from this point of view, the major programmes have an important part to play because in m a n y cases it is technological dependence which bars the way to autonomy in decision making.

The problem. Subordination to decision-making centres in other countries is a normal situation resulting from the international division of labour and w e need to appreciate the extent to which the idea of economic independence is a myth: it only has a meaning at the level of the great economic empires capable of existing in complete autarchy. For the great majority of countries it is advisable to abandon all notions of autarchy in advance and accept the fact that subordination to foreign centres of decision takes a wide variety of forms—influence on prices, delivery dates, quality, quantity of products delivered, access to markets and lastly the competitive advantages conferred by technological superiority. Normally, economic life is a network of reci­procal dependent relationships in which each centre of decision preserves a margin of autonomy.

Thus, ensuring a government's decision-making autonomy in the imple­mentation of its industrial strategy is not a matter of eliminating all depen­dence but of identifying and, if possible, eliminating the critical points of dependence.

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The critical dependences are those which, by negating the autonomy of the economic decision centres, are such as to destroy the will to develop and to impose, from outside, a regression in a branch which the economic stra­tegy aimed at encouraging. This kind of dependence is necessarily evolutive and varies with the degree of constraint the foreign decision-making centres see fit to exercise; it is nevertheless more or less permanent in character since it is a function of the disparity in size between super powers and small or medium powers, and results from the effects of dominance in the relations of the former with the latter.

A m o n g these dominance effects there has long been a tendency to single out the encirclement of the centres of decision by the share-purchase mecha­nism and financial domination. Once a given threshold has been crossed, firms pass into foreign control and there is a similar threshold beyond which the whole industry passes out of a nation's control. However, the implemen­tation of major programmes in the dominant economies has harshly spotlighted the importance of technological dominance—the concentration of 'know-how' in the hands of a super power—a monopoly which embodies a decisive element, in other words a 'critical threshold'. It is no use keeping an industry in national hands from the point of view of ownership of the shares if technological dominance can frustrate the will to develop.

The trajectory method. The trajectory method makes it possible to identify the nature of the dependence constraints and to detect the critical depen­dences.

The definition of an industrial strategy ends up with a proposed calendar of 'products to be launched and marketed'. For each of these products, identification of inputs and outputs permits the plotting of the complete trajectory from the raw materials to the complex finished goods and the location of the various centres of economic decision along the whole length of the line.

While it m a y be necessary to work backwards up the line to gain a c o m ­plete picture of the process, it is by examining the trajectory in the opposite direction that the critical areas of dependence will be identified. For it is in this downward direction that dependence constraints tend naturally to rebound and propagate from one centre of decision to another. A firm m a y be in domestic ownership but, the m o m e n t it becomes subject to the dictates of a foreign centre of decision, its o w n comportment will be that of a foreign centre of decision: for example, if a national firm is faced with a refusal by foreign suppliers to meet its orders, with delivery delays, price changes, quantity restrictions or a technological blockade, it will pass on the effects of the constraints imposed on it, in the shape of hold-ups, bottlenecks, or blow-outs in the execution of the programme.

Once the successive dependence constraints have thus been identified and ranked, attention must be turned to the various possible counter-moves, in

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descending order d o w n the line. A constraint at raw material level can be relieved simply by a diversification of the sources of supply. O n the other hand, it m a y be that the critical threshold for satisfactory performance is access to techniques which remain in foreign hands, in which case the counter-m o v e might be, say, an exchange of manufacturing licences of equal value in terms of competitive advantage or an independent research and develop­ment effort.

Releasing the constraints. O n the basis of this inventory of constraints, a choice will be m a d e in line with the selective strategy adopted of the acti­vities to be undertaken in the domain of industrial research. In view of the cost of activities of the major programme type, these will obviously be few in number.

Each country will attempt to locate its spearheads in the gaps between the peak efforts of its partners. It will therefore be to its advantage to convert the latter to this same selective strategy and come to an agreement on the division of labour. It will then be able to concentrate in its o w n hands the software of certain activities corresponding to its o w n peak efforts and if desired contract out the hardware to its partners. In selecting their peak efforts, each country will have to endeavour to bring about some convergence of objectives. In the present state of national industrial practice, it seems difficult to lay d o w n a complete economic strategy with built-in science policy considerations at the outset; what happens in fact is that the constraints in the one field are added to those in the other. For practical purposes the best method of relieving the constraints at government level is systematic encouragement of activities whose objectives converge on the plane of science policy (thereby lightening the burden which research and development represents for the economy).

A n attempt will also be m a d e to relieve constraints at the level of the economic agents (mainly firms) by selecting them, protecting them and federating them, notably by restructuring operations.

T h e major programmes emerge as the instrument whereby this restruc­turing can be effected and the requisite convergence of objectives be secured, on the basis of a predefined coherent frame of reference.

The choice of major programme themes

The problem. Science policy determines the dimensions of the research and development effort to be adopted. This quantitative planning is, however, only one of the aspects of science policy. T h e other, equally essential, is of a qualitative nature and consists in distributing the total effort between non-co-ordinated research and major programmes. T h e major programme themes trail in their wake a series of projects of smaller scope centred on 'medium themes'.

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The size of the share allotted to the major programmes could become an indicator of the coherence of a country's science policy. W h a t happens is that the prior determination of a selective industrial strategy and the identi­fication of the critical dependences and of the means for relieving them m a k e it possible to introduce a higher degree of system into the science-policy choices by showing clearly the main axes of the efforts to be m a d e . It is by reference to these axes that the major programme themes will have to be defined, preference being given to those which, by reason of their dynamism, their scope, their strictly scientific significance, would seem richest in eco­nomic 'fall-out' and likely to afford the whole economy the benefit of sus­tained stimulus. A big operation of the major programme type needs as its mainspring some stimulating and mobilizing central idea with sufficient fede­rative and 'snowballing' power to bring about a convergence of efforts and to associate both academic disciplines and branches of economic activity. Thus, it can cause the emergence of a field of new studies and n e w materials which makes it worth while for the most highly developed enterprises to maintain high-level research teams, to augment their creative potential and to acquire knowledge and methods which can be used directly in the strictly commercial sphere. Higher up the line the attractive power of this key idea will also channel adequate numbers of students still in training towards research activities and disciplines relevant to the major axes of penetration adopted by the science policy.

Rules for the choice of themes. It will be well here to restate the principles already propounded on the inferences of the adoption of a selective strategy by developing countries and medium powers: it is in terms of the existence of the dominating economies and of the dominance effects exerted by the industrial giants that the choice of themes must be m a d e and here the notion of 'gap-filling' is of primary importance.

Autonomous efforts simply to catch up should be as few as possible and only undertaken for clearly formulated reasons (e.g., national defence require­ments and the impossibility of importing the essential foreign technology as a result of bans such as the M a c M a h o n Act). This rule has far-reaching consequences: it implies, more particularly, that the developing countries, far from trying to catch up with the industrial giants in space or nuclear research, should eschew emulation in these fields of 'big science'. In the final count, it implies unlimited diversification of major programme themes. Lastly, at the level of the international community, it implies a progressive development of all branches of knowledge as each country, instead of con­centrating its efforts in fields where it is backward, will be directing them to those where it is capable of excelling and in particular to those where it has no competitors.

Autonomous efforts should be saved for those domains where develop­ment is possible via gaps in the dominant economies and where original

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methods can be applied. The gap concept is of very general scope since it is liable to apply at any point along the research-development-production trajectory, the gap being the m o r e marked according to whether it exists at the level of the concerned scientific discipline (up-trajectory research) or at that of marketable products (down-trajectory). This gap principle is mandatory in nature: duly warranted special cases apart, it is a waste of time for developing countries to try to measure up to industrial giants which can mobilize infinitely superior resources as competitors.

For the mounting of a major operation, recourse should be had to the most advanced foreign techniques, to be imported ad hoc or on a permanent basis. A major programme does not rely exclusively on autonomous local effort. O n the contrary, selective strategy consists in restricting the latter wherever possible and resorting to it only w h e n it is impossible to import the required ' k n o w - h o w ' from abroad, this limiting condition being added to the selective conditions laid d o w n in the phase of definition of the eco­nomic strategy and identification of the critical dependences.

Practical methods for selecting themes. These selection rules are cumulative, not alternative in nature. Their end result is to narrow the field of choice to a limited number of trajectories to match specific gaps. For making the final selection, it will be advisable to draw up a list of handleable themes and it is with the help of the trajectories just mentioned that the latter can in practice be identified.

Having regard to the federative power of major programmes and to the snowball effects expected of them, it is reasonable to expect that the themes will be found where trajectories intersect and that the points of multiple intersection correspond to the m o r e dynamic themes, e.g., computer engi­neering.

Another method is to identify the 'junction' projects, i.e., those projects which constitute critical thresholds for several programmes: for example, the metallurgy of special metals (beryllium, zirconium, tantalum, tung­sten, etc.) has numerous applications in nuclearonics, space research, aero­nautics, chemical engineering, high temperature studies, superconductors, etc.

A third method is to identify 'junction' equipment (frequently heavy equip­ment), e.g., computing and documentation plant, metrological equipment.

These three methods were in fact used in the French Fifth Plan in an attempt at an initial regionalization of the research and development effort, which amounted to tackling the s a m e type of problem as occurs at national or international level on the reduced scale of a limited region's economy.

After consideration of this range of pointers which m a y designate either m e d i u m themes or major themes for large-scale operations, the orientation which seems the most promising is best chosen empirically, followed by the articulation of a selection of organically-interrelated projects around the central theme to m a k e up a coherent major programme.

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In doing this, the following points should be borne in mind: the snow­balling and restructuring effects exerted by every major programme; the major programmes in the public sector in fact set the objectives of the big industrial groups and induce the growth of a complex economic structure in which the big groups are linked with small and m e d i u m businesses through the mechanism of sub-contracts; the technological 'fall-out' of the major programmes and the profits they will produce for other branches in the commercialization of their products.

In concluding this study, w e express our conviction that the international organizations have a part to play and a responsibility to assume; for indeed the major programmes have significance for the future and will undoubtedly expand and multiply in this age of science and technology, inevitably exer­cising a powerful attraction upon governments and those responsible for science policy. T h e risk the world faces, however, is that this instrument will be used for ends which will do little to promote development—if, for ins­tance, the contagion of emulation should induce the countries of Latin America, Africa and Asia also to choose space or the atom as the subjects of their major programmes, instead of concentrating their efforts in the gaps left in the efforts of the super powers. Such competition would probably have effects as lamentable as those of the arms race. O n the other hand, the major programme themes suggested by the study group on the long-term conse­quences of disarmament for the development of scientific and technical research offer n e w avenues of opportunity into which the developing countries m a y even n o w direct their efforts. Here the organizations of the United Nations system could m a k e an important contribution, not only by stimu­lating systematic reflection but also by opening wide the gate to great collec­tive adventures in those paths which today are the paths of peace.

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Haroun Tazieff T h e m e n a c e of extinct volcanoes

In the almost twenty years I have been travelling around the world trying to get to k n o w something about the most splendid and violent spectacle that nature has to offer, I have gradually become convinced of something that laymen and even professional geologists and volcanologists usually ignore, and it fills m e with dread—the prospect, some day soon, of unheard-of volcanic catastrophes. Y o u m a y perhaps imagine that only the stupid outbreak of nuclear war could cause the deaths of a hundred thousand, five hundred thousand, or a million people within a few minutes, but you would be wrong; wrong, because, as geological evidence has finally convinced m e , humanity has so far been fantastically lucky and the catastrophes of Pompeii and St. Pierre de la Martinique are nothing to what awaits it. A n d still, thirty thousand, forty thousand people killed by the blast of a volcano—these were already bad enough; but these were small towns compared with the enormous modern cities threatened at closer or longer range by a volcanic outburst— Naples and R o m e , Portland and Seattle, Mexico City, Bandung, Sapporo, Oakland, Catania, Clermont-Ferrand.. . !

Yes indeed! R o m e , Portland, Clermont-Ferrand: volcanoes regarded as well and truly extinct near these cities are dead only to eyes that cannot or will not see. M e n , as w e all k n o w , have short memories. Political or natural, catastrophes cease to worry them almost as soon as over, and teach them little. A volcano m a y be less than a century dormant and people almost cease altogether to think of it as such; all the more so if a thousand years or more has passed.

But volcanoes are geologically live: time, for them, is counted not in years or even in centuries, but in millenia and tens of millenia. The thousand-year sleep that is nothing to them is an eternity to m e n living under their shadow—the volcanoes of the Massif Central in France, those of Latium, of the Cascade Range in Oregon, and of California (although the latter had numerous, if not major, eruptions throughout the last century, and even as

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recently as 1916 in the case of Lassen Peak). But Clermont-Ferrand, R o m e ? Completely forgotten by the inhabitants, the fact remains that only a few millenia separate us from the last eruptions. In the course of their lifetimes, millions of years long, there must have been m a n y lulls, for dozens or even hundreds of centuries, and there are really no grounds for supposing that the present calm signifies the end of the volcano's activity rather than a period of repose. Obviously the very length of these quiet periods is hopeful; centuries, hundreds of centuries might pass and Clermont-Ferrand, R o m e or Seattle not be wiped out. But the interval might be m u c h less.

The two most violent eruptions of the twentieth century occurred at appa­rently extinct volcanoes; the first at the Katmai volcano in Alaska from 6 to 8 June 1912, the second at the Bezymyannaya Sopka in the Kamchatka peninsula on 30 March 1956. Relatively little was k n o w n about Katmai and its neighbouring volcanoes, but ten years ago it was thought that there remained little to learn about the volcanic chain around the Bezymyannaya volcano—indeed, Klyuchi, hardly 5 0 kilometres away, is one of the best-k n o w n volcanological observatories. Nevertheless, and despite intensive study of the strongly active volcanoes in the area, no importance was attached to this insignificant 'extinct' cone, its very n a m e , ' U n n a m e d ' emphasizing its insignificance.

The explosion of 30 March 1956 blew the top off the mountain, hurtling debris 40,000 metres into the air, blasting d o w n the forests at its base, and snapping tree trunks like matchwood up to 20 kilometres away. A s in Alaska forty-four years earlier, no-one was killed, but only because these regions are practically uninhabited. What would happen in six months, six years or sixty times six years if a cataclysm on this scale were to strike Java or Japan? In fact such a cataclysm did occur although, fortunately, on a smaller scale, about fifteen years ago in N e w Guinea. In this case it was not even k n o w n that the mountain was a volcano; M o u n t Lamington, near the eastern end of N e w Guinea, had been regarded as just an ordinary mountain until the day when, on 16 January 1951, a thin column of vapour was seen rising from its summit. The next day slight earth tremors were noticed around the foot of the mountain. The escapes of gas and the tremors increased during the next two days, and a small amount of ash was ejected. O n 20 January, the eruption had become spectacular; the wreath of ashes reached up over 10,000 metres into the sky and rumblings were heard, sometimes dozens of kilometres away. O n Sunday 21 January, the volcano was roaring conti­nuously and at 10.40 a . m . it exploded: a fearsome wreath of convoluting clouds of gas, spilling ash, lapilli and blocks, shot up to a height of 15,000 metres in a matter of seconds and formed a huge mushroom cloud, while a glowing avalanche spread over the ground with the same terrifying speed. T w o hundred and fifty square kilometres of countryside were laid waste, and 3,000 people killed.

I have tried to intimate to readers m y anxiety about supposedly extinct

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volcanoes; but there is another, yet more terrifying menace: the menace of ignimbrite flows.

There has only been one ignimbrite eruption in historic times. It was relatively moderate. I say relatively because it nevertheless covered a surface some 30 kilometres long by 5 kilometres wide with a layer on average 100 metres deep, which, if spread over the whole of Paris would bury it nearly 10 metres deep. This was the eruption which created the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes in Alaska in 1912 to which I alluded earlier.

The geological history of the earth is, however full of really colossal ignimbrite escapes in which thousands and tens of thousands of square kilometres have been suddenly engulfed beneath suffocating clouds of gas and avalanches of incandescent sand. There are a great m a n y sheets of ignim-brites in N e w Zealand, where they were described for the first time some thirty years ago, and there are also m a n y in the United States and Italy, Japan and the Soviet Union, Kenya, Chad , Sumatra and Central America, Latin America, Iran and Turkey. All these were the result of sudden, almost lightning-fast escapes of m a g m a , supersaturated with gas, which, after forcing open a long fissure, spurted up and spread out, allowing for differences of scale, somewhat like milk boiling over from a saucepan. It is almost certain that speeds of over 100, perhaps even 300, kilometres an hour were reached, and the very nature of the material spewed out in this w a y — with droplets of lava, vitreous fragments of exploded bubbles and incandescent fragments of pumice suspended in the released gas—made it so fluid that it was able to spread over immense areas, immediately wiping out all life.

A s already indicated, the only ignimbrite eruption k n o w n to have occurred in the world in historic times is that of the Valley of T e n Thousand Smokes. This n a m e was given to the valley by Robert Griggs w h e n , after great effort, he and his team arrived in 1917, five years after the eruption, at the head of the Katmai Pass and discovered the extraordinary expanse of salmon-pink and golden sand from which innumerable jets of high-pressure steam were rising, thousands of fumaroles caused partly by the rivers and streams trapped under the thick sheet of burning ignimbrite sands, and partly by the m a g m a gases still imprisoned in the sands. Fifty years to the day after the eruption, on 6 June 1962, it was the turn of m y friends the geologists Mari­nelli, Bordet and Mittempergher and myself to arrive in this fabulous valley: only three or four columns of steam still rose lazily at the top end of the valley, towards Novarupta, the small volcano whose detonations marked the end of the cataclysm.

W e gazed for a long while at this tawny wilderness, stretching away astonishingly flat within its ring of mountains. But behind the wonder aroused by this austere beauty, behind the geological interest, behind our discussions of h o w the ignimbrites came to be there, there lay the inescapable thought that an eruption of this type might very well occur in the near future, not this

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time in a desert as in the Alaskan peninsula or the Tibesti Massif of the Sahara, but in some overpopulated part of the globe—for there are recent ignimbrites throughout Latium and California, throughout Japan and Indo­nesia.

This is what I have in mind when I speak of the possibility, or rather the probability, of volcanic catastrophes involving a million or even several million deaths. Like a giant land-mine under our feet, this danger threatens vast areas of the globe, including a number of countries which believe them­selves safe from volcanic perils.

Governments, whether 'advanced' or 'developing', are obviously not worried, primarily because of ignorance, but also through lack of foresight. Thus, as soon as w e arrived in a country on a volcanological investigation mission, the local authorities have sometimes submitted the most pre­posterous projects to us, not merely revealing a complete misunderstanding of what an eruption is but even proposing methods for slowing or stopping it or for harnessing its energy for industrial use; w e have really had the greatest trouble in convincing them that their beautiful plans were scatter-brained.

During a recent mission to a country where an eruption had gone on conti­nuously for a year, w e could see as soon as w e visited the volcano an un­mistakable threat to the inhabited areas around its base; as soon as the rainy season started, the valleys would be swept by torrents of volcanic m u d , the terrible lahars which year in and year out claim thousands of victims throughout the world.

Civil engineers should have set to work months beforehand to protect the population, building embankments to divert the thrust of the liquid m u d pouring d o w n at 50 or 60 kilometres an hour. A s nothing of the sort had been done, all that remained was to keep a watch on the upper slopes of the mountain where the lahars would start, and get the people ready to evacuate the threatened regions calmly and in good order at any m o m e n t of the day or night. I accordingly put a plan to the authorities but could see straight away that it evoked no enthusiasm whatsoever.

After a fortnight, m y friend Ivan Elskens, the expedition's chemist, finally came up with a psychological explanation. Whatever a government m a y do to avoid a catastrophe, natural or otherwise, it will still be criticized by the opposition. W h y lay oneself open—particularly since, whatever efforts are m a d e , it is almost certain that they will not be totally successful, volcanolo­gical forecasting being at present no more foolproof than weather forecasting (although it seems as absurd not to attempt it as not to attempt to forecast the weather)? Natural catastrophes being, by the nature of things, beyond the power of governments, governments are unwilling to chance their funds on undertakings which simple prudence would dictate.

This is, I think, the reason w h y official contributions to volcanological research have been, except in the case of Japan, so insignificant. Earthquake forecasting, which is m u c h m o r e difficult than the forecasting of eruptions,

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receives equally little encouragement. The authorities try to forget disasters as quickly as possible: despite the destruction of San Francisco in 1906, the richest and most powerful country in the world had to wait sixty years, until the Anchorage disaster of 1964, before it w a s decided to invest in the necessary seismological equipment and try to forecast future cataclysms.

A few more examples like Krakatoa, St. Pierre de la Martinique, or Pompeii will probably be necessary before the decision is m a d e to set up observatories which would m a k e it possible to forecast the awakening of 'extinct' volcanoes and the opening of fissures from which ignimbrite flows escape.

Providing the indispensable m i n i m u m of funds are allocated, it should be easier today to forecast the awakening of a volcano than to forecast the weather. This is, alas, still far from being the case. Forecasting depends on detecting significant fluctuations in a series of physical and chemical para­meters. T h e difficulty lies in interpreting the changes observed; some of the parameters at times speak a relatively comprehensible language while others remain, for the present at least, indecipherable. The indecipherable factors include variations in the composition of the field of gravity, the nature of the gases and, all too often, seismic manifestations; the comprehensible ones include these same seismic effects when conditions are favourable to their interpretation, the slow tumescence of the volcano, variations in temperature, sometimes variations of the magnetic field and soon, perhaps, variations of the gases.

Since w e are still at the stage of conjecture regarding the causes and, consequently, the mechanism of eruptions, these variations which modern techniques m a k e it possible to measure cannot really be understood nor, therefore, can their meaning be interpreted with certainty. But there is a gradual improvement, and successful forecasts of impending activity have several times been m a d e , the best example being the eruption of Kilauea in December 1959-January 1960: seismographs had given notice of the awaken­ing of the volcano nearly six months before it erupted. Thanks to their excellent observation network on Hawaii and on Kilauea itself, scientists of the volcanological observatory were able to determine the focal depth of the tremors: about 5 0 kilometres, which is suprising enough for volcanic seismic effects, the hypocentre of which is usually localized less than 5 kilometres below the surface, and still m o r e surprising in Hawaii where the lower limit of the earth's crust itself is only 15 kilometres below sea level.

In the following weeks, the volcanologists noted that the focal depth was getting less and less and by measuring the speed of the rise they produced an estimate of the time it would take for this depth to be reduced to zero, i.e., w h e n the m a g m a would erupt at the surface. A s the measurements continued the coefficient of error due to extrapolation w a s reduced. A network of field seismographs was brought into service in addition to the fixed network, allowing high-precision determination of the epicentres, i.e., the zones where

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the eruption was likely to take place (with this vast shield volcano, eruptions can occur equally well in the area of the central crater or up to 10 or 20 kilo­metres away on the slopes of the mountain). A s the tremors increased in number and intensity, the whole volcano swelled, probably under the pressure of the rising m a g m a — t h e angles and directions of this tumescence, which is otherwise quite imperceptible, can be accurately measured with the aid of instruments k n o w as tiltmeters or clinometers.

Thus , by carefully following the evolution of phenomena which had long been k n o w n to be closely connected with the rise of the m a g m a , the scientists at Hawaii Observatory were able to predict with unprecedented accuracy the exact point—the Kilauea Iki crater—and m o m e n t where the eruption would take place. They went even better: when the eruption stopped after three weeks of violent and spectacular activity, not only were they able to state that it had not finished and would start again, but were even able to say that this would happen 15 kilometres away near the small village of K a p o h o . A s a result, it was possible to evacuate the population and even all their movable belongings before the earth gaped open to release the gas and incandescent lava which was to destroy the houses and fields.

Unfortunately, it is not always so easy to interpret seismograph and clino­meter data. The behaviour of volcanoes of the Hawaian type is relatively straightforward, but that of most of the others is not—particularly the dangerously explosive stratified cones which abound in the circum-Pacific 'ring of fire'. These latter are, however, up to n o w at least, the subject of the most wary observation, since more than half of the paltry dozen volcano-logical observatories which exist are concentrated here, most of them in Japan, one in Kamchatka and another in N e w Britain.

There is as yet no means of knowing exactly w h y eruptions of one type are fairly predictable and w h y others defy forecasting. T h e difference appears to depend on the nature of the m a g m a , on its chemical composition, its visco­sity, its content in dissolved gases, and perhaps even its origins.

Let us accept for the m o m e n t the theory that the substance emitted by basaltic volcanoes comes from a deep m a g m a , highly fluid and relatively poor in gases and everywhere present beneath the earth's crust, whilst the circum-Pacific volcanoes are fed by limited m a g m a chambers, strung out along narrow zones and consisting of pockets, within the crust itself, of molten rocks whose composition gives the substance a high viscosity and a high gas content. It is then easy to see that the eruptive processes of these different types of m a g m a will be different and so, therefore, will be the pre­monitory signs which m a k e it possible to predict them.

T o reach the surface and erupt, a fluid m a g m a coming up from the depths of the earth has to force its way through kilometres of rock, thus opening fissures first in the depths of the earth and then higher and higher as it rises, or widening existing conduits. W h e n it finally reaches the last few kilometres, this n e w intruded material produces a swelling in the configuration of the

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volcano itself and it is this which the seismographs and tiltmeters register: the tremors accompanying the opening of the fractures, and the tumescence of the mountain itself. T h e m a g m a s of the circum-Pacific chain are a different matter. Probably starting life at lesser depths with the melting of sediments within the earth's crust itself, rich in silica and water, they are both viscous and gas-supersaturated.

Before going any further, I would like to point out that although these ideas are based on geological evidence, they are nevertheless only a hypo­thesis, and the evidence could be interpreted in different ways. W e k n o w a lot less about the inside of our o w n planet than about outer space—a paradox that has various explanations: partly the nature of cosmic and terrestrial matter, but also the incredible disproportion in the sums allocated for these two different kinds of research. T h e inadequacy of the funds allocated for the study of the interior of the earth shows once again h o w underesti­mated is the importance of such research. Even from the utilitarian point of view, the future of mankind lies here on earth. Mankind will have to dig deeper and deeper into the earth to find mineral deposits w h e n those at the surface have been exhausted, but the old empirical methods of finding them will no longer do, and they will have to be located before drilling even starts; for this w e shall need more positive theories concerning the origin of these deposits than those w e m a k e do with at present, and w e shall find them only if w e go and look for fresh data in the depths of the earth itself.

Accepting the hypothesis that the circum-Pacific m a g m a s do not stretch round the whole globe in a continuous layer beneath the earth's crust but form pockets within the crust, that because of their viscosity, their mobility is extremely low, and that they contain a high quantity of dissolved gases, w e can understand w h y seismographs and tiltmeters cannot, as in the case of basaltic volcanoes, clearly warn of the approach of an eruption. If such be indeed the case, the m a g m a would normally be quite near to the surface and the seismic effects accompanying any possible rise of the m a g m a would not be distinguishable, as in the case of Hawaii, by their focal depth from the tremors due to various causes which are constantly occurring in the upper kilometres of any active volcano. Moreover, this m a g m a is often so viscous that the speed of its rise is greatly reduced, if not nil. T h e seismic effects connected with the rise of the m a g m a m a y thus be lost a m o n g ordinary earth tremors, making it very difficult if not impossible for the seismologist to dis­tinguish genuine foreshocks. Tiltmeter readings would be equally useless: the volcano will obviously not swell unless matter is rising up inside it.

H o w do these volcanoes erupt at all if there is little or no rise of the lava from the m a g m a chamber towards the surface? It m a y be that the action of the gases alone is responsible. This type of acid, viscous m a g m a is particu­larly rich in dissolved volatile elements, water vapour in particular. While it is incubating in its chamber, the m a g m a begins to separate out into crys­tallized minerals and gases. The gases take the form of bubbles, microscopic

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to start with but getting larger and larger, by adiabatic expansion as the light bubbles rise through the viscous mass, by the movement of fresh volatile molecules through the m a g m a and by the coalescence of bubbles.

Time obviously plays an essential part in this process, particularly because of the high viscosity of the molten mass of silicates. Whereas gases percolate easily through fluid m a g m a s such as basalts or basanites, escaping into the atmosphere either through fissures in the roof or through the free surface of the lava column, in a thick m a g m a the rising and growth of the bubbles are hindered by the viscosity, and the higher the viscosity the more years it will take before sufficient pressure is built up in the pocket of gas trapped under the roof of the chamber—which is less permeable than that of a basic chamber—to break it. In addition, the longer the period of incubation, the more viscous the m a g m a becomes because of the gradual acidification of the residual molten mass as the ferromagnesian minerals crystallize out, and the thicker becomes the lava 'plug' in the neck of the crater as the upper part of the m a g m a gradually solidifies and the crater is filled in by sediments and by the collapse of the walls of the throat.

Naturally, therefore, there m a y be very long quiet periods before the pressure of the gas slowly accumulating under this thickening plug becomes high enough to blow the plug. Years or centuries m a y pass in this way and as yet w e have no means of telling from the surface of the earth that this slow concentration of endogenic energy is going on. A s a result, such a crater will soon c o m e to be classified as belonging to an extinct volcano—and w e k n o w the terrifying consequences which this m a y have.

In these circumstances, h o w can w e forecast a renewal of activity? In the first place, at the risk of repeating myself I would say that w e must get it into our heads that whatever the type of volcano, m a g m a or activity concerned, w e shall never be able to predict anything with any accuracy unless a constant watch is kept by a specialized team. O n c e this has been established, and accepting the theory that the violent explosions of volcanoes of the cir-cum-Pacific type are in fact the result of the accumulation of gases under the roof of the chamber, it would seem logical to look for significant signs in possible changes in the fumaroles which the crater exhales to a greater or less extent and which have their origins inside the pocket of incubating lava. Changes discovered in this w a y m a y not always be easy to interpret—in so far as they can be interpreted at all—but logically they must hold a clue to what is going on d o w n below.

The temperature of some fumaroles has been recorded for a long time back, on the logical assumption that the temperature will rise as an eruption approaches. However , with acid volcanoes at least, this method of detecting an eruption has had practically no success. This is not surprising if w e accept the theory that explosive eruptions are the result of the building up of gas pressure and not of the rise of m a g m a , since it is essentially the latter which determines the rise in temperature.

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W e are thus left with the chemical composition of fumaroles, which ought to depend on the deep-lying processes mentioned above. T h e reflection of these processes in the chemistry of the fumarole gases should provide valuable information; and for s o m e six years n o w our team has been attemp­ting to collect such information.

This is not a simple or an easy matter, if only because of the number and variety of the factors involved. The vapours escaping at the surface have greatly varying temperatures and pressures which affect their composition; basically, however, this composition depends, first, on the nature of the true m a g m a gases, those which actually escape from the m a g m a , and secondly on the degree to which they are contaminated, on their way from the m a g m a chamber to the surface, by water and air contained in the fissures and pores of the rocks of the earth's crust or even, as in the case of limestones, by the rocks themselves.

In addition, gases combine very easily with one another and these combi­nations are determined, other things being equal, by temperature and pres­sure conditions. There m a y be a great deal of difference between the c o m p o ­sition of what the volcanological chemist analyses at the temperature and pre­sure of his laboratory and that of the fumarole escaping from its vent at 500° or 1,000° Centigrade; and the latter in turn will no doubt be different again from the gas initially given off by the original molten mass of silicates.

W e are as yet unable to bring up samples of gases from their deep origins, uncontaminated by contact with the earth's crust, but at least w e can avoid pollution by atmospheric air. This, however, is not always easy, and analysis of volcanic gases often loses m u c h of its significance because they have been mixed with too m u c h air and water. M a n y chemists thought to correct this fault, first by subtracting the water—which very often represents 90 to 99 per cent of their samples—and examining only the remainder, and secondly, by estimating the proportion of atmospheric air contained in the sample on the basis of the amount of nitrogen it contains and subtracting this in its turn. Without launching into a discussion of all the chemical reactions which the presence of water and oxygen might set off, it is quite clear that even w h e n such subtractions have been m a d e , analyses of this kind give a far from true picture of the composition of the fumaroles.

It is more than a century since Saint-Claire Deville first tackled this problem, and in that time some acceptable analyses of volcanic gas have been carried out in various places. However, such analyses are still insufficient evidence on which to base any clear conclusions about the mechanism of eruptions or to permit identifications of the premonitory symptoms of a possible future eruption, the reason being that, if not completely isolated, analyses on individual volcanoes have certainly been carried out m u c h too infrequently, too sporadically, at too long intervals, in conditions too hard to reproduce, to give any real idea—indispensable for prediction purposes—of the development of the gas phase.

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H . Tazieff

Observation of a dormant volcano m a y not require analyses at very close intervals, but the development of the chemical composition and pressure of the fumaroles should at least be followed step by step. Since only gases are invol­ved, this alone might yield warning signs, however slight, by which to detect renewed volcanic activity. But the best hope for a better understanding of volcanic activity and, hence, of developing volcanological forecasting is to m a k e a close study of the variations, both sudden and gradual, in the gases given off from the mouth of an active volcano sampled at a fixed point.

This is the job with which w e have been particularly concerned: to try and analyse the volcanic gases as nearly continuously as possible, and to look for warning signs in the variation in their composition and in the comparison between this variation and variations detected by other means such as the seismograph and the clinometer.

T h e first samples of gas taken by our group were analysed in a laboratory by D r . Marcel Chaigneau, director of the Gas Laboratory at the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique in Paris, using the Lebeau and Damiens method over a mercury trough. T h e results were extremely accurate but the operations took so long that, with the resources at our disposal (i.e., without special volcanological staff or equipment) no m o r e than two or three series of analyses could have been carried out in a year. T h e problems to be solved in fact require the results of hundreds of analyses for, primarily, what w e are trying to do is to detect and follow up variations in composition which w e intuitively feel to be important.

It was at this point that two chemists in our team, D r . I. Elskens of the University of Brussels and Dr. F . Tonani of the University of Florence, rightly pointed out that the high degree of accuracy obtained over a mercury trough was not absolutely necessary for our purposes, since it was more impor­tant to detect variations and establish relationships between the vairous consti­tuents than to k n o w their exact composition. They pointed out that it would be possible to carry out analyses sufficiently accurate for our needs (i.e., with a margin of error of 1 or 2 per cent) very rapidly and on the spot by adopting a new industrial process used for quantitative analysis of traces of gas in offices and factories. This process is based on the principle of the selective adsorption of a given gas when it is passed over a certain powdered substance in a small glass tube; the specific indicator changes in colour along a length of the tube proportionate to the amount of the particular gas present.

This extremely rapid and easy method proved astonishingly effective. With a little practice w e were soon able to do two analyses a minute and on one occasion when the explosive activity was favourable (i.e., strong enough and at the same time so directed that it was possible to get near to the erupting mouth) w e were able to spend more than two hours inside the crater of Stromboli itself and carry out a long series of tests, mainly to determine the amounts of water and carbon dioxide present and with the subsidiary aim of determining the hydrochloric acid content. Although w e expected to find

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The menace of extinct volcanoes

fluctuations, the range and rapidity of those w e did discover amazed us. T h e graph shows this better than words, but I must nevertheless stress the point

that the carbon dioxide content went from 0 to 25 per cent in less than 3 minutes and that of water vapour from 0 to 45 per cent in a similar time and even went from 2 0 to 50 per cent in a few seconds, that is it m o r e than doubled almost instantaneously. This alone should suffice to show that the isolated or practically isolated analyses which had previously been obtained by conventional methods were really of only very minor value.

With the hazardous and uncomfortable conditions under which w e were working, it was difficult, in addition to taking samples, to note with accuracy the timing of eruptive effects and particularly of explosions. It would seem however, from a reading of the graph, that there is a close connexion between variations in water and carbon dioxide content and the explosive activity of the volcano, although w e still do not have sufficient data to draw firm con­clusions.

Continuous sampling at very frequent intervals is thus absolutely necessary for a proper study of the problems of eruptive activity. O n the other hand, a watch can be kept quite satisfactorily on the fumaroles escaping from a dor­mant crater, which are obviously subject to infinitely slower variations, by less frequent analyses, the development curve being determined from points obtained at intervals of only one a month or even less. But to reach an understanding of the mechanism of eruptions proper, even our new procedure is insufficient, particularly since it is unusual to be able to stay more than a few minutes or even seconds at a time in a really active crater. In fact this memorable 'Operation Stromboli', during which w e had several times been peppered with incandescent projectiles (from which our fibreglass helmets gave us very good protection), ended more or less in a scramble for safety after three hours w h e n , following an explosion which had produced a parti­cularly large number of projectiles, the rubber soles on the boots of the most intrepid volcanologist that I k n o w , Franco Tonani, caught fire. W e took the hint and left.

Ivan Elskens, w h o quite properly believes that the mouth of a volcano

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H . Taziefi

is no place for any m a n in his right mind, decided thereupon to apply himself to the realization of our old dream of an instrument capable of carrying out continuous and automatic sampling and analysis of the volcanic gases and transmitting the results to a recording meter situated at a respectful distance from the crater. 'Then you can go and mess about near the craters as m u c h as you like', Elskens told us, 'and I will m a k e myself confortable with a glass of beer and a book and just look up from time to time to keep an eye on the meter.'

In actual fact, in three years, with the assistance of an electronics expert, M r . Bara, he succeeded in developing this instrument. O n 29 August 1966, on the slopes of the north-east bocca of Etna, Elskens, albeit without a glass of beer, used his field telechromatograph for the first time, measuring, to start with, a single constituent of the volcanic gas and recording by remote control the variations in the carbon dioxide content of gases issuing at a temperature of 1,000° from a vent which was belching out molten lava.

It is too early yet to talk about the results of this operation or predict the potential of the new instrument, but I a m sure that a very important step forward has been made and that the simultaneous recording of two such fundamental parameters as seismic activity and the composition of the gas given off by an erupting volcano will enable us to understand this mysterious phenomenon infinitely better than hitherto.

I would like also to mention the two other new aids to observation and forecasting. O n e resembles the tiltmeter but provides more easily interpre­table data than tilt variations which, especially with volcanoes of the circum-Pacific type, are often misleading. The method consists of measuring the dia­meter of a crater by means of a tellurometer. Robert W . Decker, whose idea it was, measured the diameter of Kilauea at fairly close intervals and dis­covered that it was increasing continuously and quite noticeably right up to the time of eruption. Before instruments were available to measure distances of up to several tens of kilometres very accurately and very rapidly, such opera­tions were m u c h too slow and expensive to be of practical value in volcano-logy. It is n o w quite possible that the Decker method will produce results greatly superior to those obtained by clinometer.

The second method, used for long-range forecasting (several months to, perhaps, several years), is based on a hypothesis deduced by M r . C . Blot, head of the geophysics section at the O R S T O M Centre, N o u m e a (New Caledonia), from the relationship which appears to exist between certain deep (550 to 650 kilometres below the surface) and intermediary (150 to 250 kilometres) seismic effects, and certain eruptions in the N e w Hebrides archipelago.

Since submitting the first results of his observations at the General Assem­bly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics at Berkeley in August 1963, Blot has been applying the relationships which he has dis­covered to attempted forecasts of the volcanic eruptions in the region of the

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The menace of extinct volcanoes

N e w Hebrides. In the last three years, the volcanoes G a u a , A m b r y m and Lopévi all resumed strong activity on dates forecast months in advance.

In collaboration with M r . J. Grover, chief of geological survey, Solomon Islands, it has been possible to extend these studies and forecasts to the vol­canoes of the Santa Cruz and Solomon Islands (Tinakula and various under­water volcanoes).

At the last Pacific Scientific Congress in Tokyo, September 1966, Blot and Grover presented a paper setting out the results of these forecasts of volcanic eruptions in the south-west Pacific which ended as follows:

'It seems more and more likely that a relationship exists between deep seismic effects, intermediary effects and volcanic eruptions. T h e relationship between deep effects and eruptions cannot be a direct one, since explosions and lava flows do not originate at depths of 400 to 700 kilometres. However, a certain alteration in tensions or an abrupt change of phase at these depths could set off a thermo-energy phenomenon which—in zones where the critical physical conditions obtain, particularly under the volcanic arcs— could cause other rapid changes producing intermediary seismic effects at depths between 250 and 60 kilometres, depending on the regional tectonics. These would be the zones in the upper mantle where the molten pockets occur and where m a g m a forms and where, according to the views of, for example, D r . Shimozuru and Dr. Gorshkov, volcanic eruptions originate.

'By observing seismic activity in a given area following the start of deep seismic effects and by the detection and localization of intermediary effects beneath volcanic areas, it will be possible to keep a closer watch on one sector or one volcano several months before a possible eruption.'

The relationships discovered in the N e w Hebrides and, with increasing frequency, throughout the Pacific show that there m a y be a constant interval between the beginnings of phenomena at different levels right up to the surface, if the depth, distances and intensities of these phenomena and other, still somewhat indeterminate tectonic, physical and chemical factors can be. taken into account.

These intervals appear to be, on average, 12 ± 2 months between the 650 and 200 kilometre levels (along the line of the 60° inclination of the deep structures of the Pacific arcs) and 6 ± 2 months between the inter­mediary seismic effects 200 kilometres beneath the volcanoes and the actual eruptions.

If this theory proves true, it would be of the utmost value for the fore­casting of possible cataclysms. So far it has not been possible to verify it thoroughly outside the N e w Hebrides area and, even there, it is a little early yet to draw any final conclusions regarding the reality of these rela­tionships. (In Hawaii, where the structure is different from that of the circum-Pacific type and the deepest seismic effects recorded were those detected at 60 kilometres under Kilauea, observatory specialists concerned with all phenomena giving advance warning of eruptions by the various

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H . Tazieff

volcanoes on the island recently acknowledged that some eruptions had been preceded several months earlier by seismic effects at a depth of 60 kilo­metres.)

The arguments which Blot has put forward on the basis of his observa­tions thus appear very attractive and, though some questions remain to be answered about the mechanical, physical and chemical processes which determine the upward propagation of endogenic energy at a speed of some hundreds of kilometres a year from the depths up to the neck of a volcano, this link, if it really exists, will certainly be one of the basic criteria in volca-nological forecasting in the future.

148

C. J. Banwell Geothermal power

INTRODUCTION

There is, at the present time, a widespread and increasing interest in the possibilities of geothermal energy production throughout the world. In m a n y countries, it is becoming realized that some of the hot spring and fumarole areas within their territories m a y have a hitherto unsuspected potential for power and heat production, which could have an important effect on their economies. A factor stimulating this interest has undoubtedly been the success of power and heat production schemes on a considerable scale in Italy, Iceland, N e w Zealand, and recently in California. The Italian scheme, which began with a small plant at Larderello in 1904, has increased steadily in capacity, and development has been extended to several neigh­bouring areas until today it has the largest power production of all. In Iceland, production of hot water from drill-holes has been increasing over some decades, the heat being used directly for dwellings, hothouses and various industrial purposes. In N e w Zealand, preliminary drilling began at Wairakei in 1950; by 1960 steam production had reached a level sufficient to supply the present station, and has been maintained at this level up to the present time. In California, power production began in June 1960, with a 12.5 megawatt plant, and capacity has been increased considerably since by further drilling. Installed generating capacities and the fuel oil equivalent of the heat produced by the drill-holes are shown in Table 1.

T h e fuel oil equivalent for the Larderello and Geysers schemes is the quantity of oil it would be necessary to use in a thermal plant (over-all thermal efficiency 25 per cent) to generate the same amount of electrical energy. For Wairakei and Reykjavik, the heat equivalent of the oil is equated to the total heat produced by the drill-holes. In the case of Wairakei, this includes the large quantity of heat discharged unused in the separated hot water, and some heat from prospecting holes not currently connected to

149

Impact, Vol. XVII (1967), No. 2

C . J. Banwell

T A B L E 1. Generating capacity and heat output of hydrothermal schemes.

Generating capacity Fuel oil equivalent (megawatts)] (metric tons/year)

Larderello group (Italy) 538 1 518 000 Wairakei, Kawerau (New Zealand) 175 1 636 000 The Geysers (California, United States) 50 149 000 Reykjavik (Iceland) — 110 000

T O T A L 763 3 413 000

the power station. The Kawerau contribution (105 tons/year) consists entirely of process heat used in the neighbouring pulp and paper mill.

In addition to the above plants already in operation, drilling in several fields in Japan has reached an advanced stage, and varying amounts of exploratory work have been carried out over the past few years in other promising fields in southern California, Mexico, Central America, N e w Zealand, the Philippines, Taiwan, Kamchatka, Iceland and Italy. In N e w Zealand two more prospecting holes have been drilled in each of six new fields in the past ten years, and production tests are proceeding or due to begin shortly in four of them.

WORLD DISTRIBUTION OF HYDROTHERMAL FIELDS

Hot springs with deep temperatures ranging up to about 150°C. are widely distributed over the earth, and occur in m a n y different geological forma­tions. For the most part, they can be accounted for by deep circulation of surface water in areas where the geothermal gradient ranges from normal (i.e., 30°C. per kilometre) to a few times normal. The existence of these springs is not evidently dependent on local volcanism and m a y well be due to tectonic activity which keeps flow paths open to abnormally great depths. S o m e of these springs have been used from prehistoric times for supplying hot baths, spas and the like, and in modern times a few have been used for small-scale industrial processes and even power generation. It is quite possible that the value of some can be increased still further by the applica­tion of modern technology, but it is likely that each will need to be treated as a special case, and a careful study m a d e of the economics of possible new uses of the hot water.

Nearly all the hydrothermal fields that are currently being studied for large-scale development, whether for power production or process heat, are characterized by strongly boiling springs, geysers or fumaroles and,

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w h e n drilled, are found to have underground temperatures ranging up to 300°C. or higher.

These fields are generally associated with volcanism in some w a y , although the connexion is not always very direct or obvious. In N e w Zealand and Iceland, the steam and hot water are produced from deposits of eruptive rocks and debris, though the fields are not in the immediate vicinity of active volcanoes. In Italy and California, production drill-holes have not penetrated any volcanic formations, although there are volcanic rocks within a few kilometres. At the present time, the only general rule that can be derived from the limited data available is that productive fields appear to be associated with rocks of the acid volcanic series, especially, at least in N e w Zealand, with rhyolites. In this connexion, it m a y be noted that the great Hawaiian volcanoes of the central Pacific, which are predominantly basic, have very few hot springs, despite their enormous lava outputs, while in Iceland, which is volcanically a transitional area, the basalt dykes are associated only with hot springs, and the high temperature activity with active volcanism.

With these rather provisional rules in mind, it is interesting n o w to look at a m a p of world volcanism, such as that given by Rittmann in Plate I of his book Volcanoes and their Activity. In this m a p , the boundary shown as the 'andésite line' between the Pacific basin and the surrounding land areas, marks the transition from mainly basic to mainly acid volcanism, or to the 'Pacific rock suites', as Rittmann describes them. O f the fifty main volcanic districts of the earth listed by Rittmann, twenty-four belong to the Pacific suites, seventeen (including the volcanoes of the Pacific basin) to the Atlantic suites, one (Iceland) to Pacific-Atlantic transitional suites, and one (Italy) mainly to a special Mediterranean suite. The remaining seven districts consist of plateau basalts. Apart from the special case of Larde-rello in Italy, and the borderline case of Iceland, all the hydrothermal fields already developed, or showing promising results from prospecting, are associated with volcanism of the Pacific, or acid suites. While it would be premature to dismiss volcanic areas of other types from consideration at this stage, it does appear that it m a y be more profitable to select the acid volcanic areas first for further exploration in most instances. At the same time, it must be recognized that the other areas have been little explored by drilling, and it would be good scientific procedure to test at least a few of those thought to be most promising on other grounds, or located in areas where hydrothermal energy would be of special value.

A survey of the distribution of the Pacific rock suites over the globe gives a list of regions showing significant possibilities of hydrothermal productivity, as set out in Table 2 .

In each section of this table, the areas have been arranged with the most active first. O f all the areas listed, Nicaragua in Central America is probably the most active, followed closely by the Sunda-Moluccas area.

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C. J. Banwell

T A B L E 2. Areas with apparent hydrothermal power potential.

Island arcs Sunda-Moluccas (Indonesia) Alaska, Aleutians Kamchatka, Kurile Islands North and west Japan Fuji-Bonin zone Marianas Ryukyu Islands (including Formosa) Philippines-Northern Celebes Halmahera N e w Guinea, N e w Britain Solomon Islands, N e w Hebrides Tonga-Kermadec Islands—

N e w Zealand Lesser Antilles (Caribbean) Graham Land, south Shetlands Continental margins Central America Mexico

California-Nevada (United States) Wrangell Mountains (southern Alaska,

western Canada) Northern Andes Southern Andes (Peru and Chile)

Southern Europe, Asia Minor Iran, Armenia Turkey (north Anatolia and Aegean

coast) Aegean Islands Hungarian basin Spain (south coast)

Transitional rock suites South-west Italy, Sicily Iceland, Jan Mayen, Spitzbergen Virunga volcanoes (Lake Victoria,

Central Africa)

In s o m e of the areas listed, volcanism as it is usually understood must be regarded as extinct, but it is interesting to note that in the Hungarian Basin abnormally high heat flows (up to about twice normal) are found in Tertiary andésite and dacite rocks, as well as in the Pliocene sediments of the Hungarian plain. Whether this represents the final traces of a dying volcanism, or whether the beginning of a n e w eruptive cycle cannot be decided with any certainty on present evidence.

O f the volcanic areas not included in the above table, the northern part of the Ethiopian 'Atlantic' volcanism merits s o m e c o m m e n t . This area extends across the Gulf of A d e n a short distance into Arabia, and heat flows in the sea floor in the Gulf are found to be up to several times normal. A s far as is k n o w n , no systematic heat-flow measurements have been m a d e over the adjoining land but these results suggest that some of these areas m a y justify more thorough study.

ENERGY POTENTIAL OF WORLD HYDROTHERMAL SYSTEMS: MEASUREMENTS AND ESTIMATES

Table 3 gives the result of various measurements and estimates of the natural heat flow from the very few hydrothermal systems so far sub­jected to systematic quantitative investigation. M o s t authers quoting values are disposed to set wide limits to their results, and in some cases the flows

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Geothermal power

have been calculated from other published figures, or extrapolated to a larger area from sample measurements. Nevertheless, it is believed that the totals given are well within an order of magnitude of the true values.

Only for Iceland do the totals give anything like a complete measure of the natural heat output. For N e w Zealand, the estimated total is about 106 Kgcal/sec, while in the United States the areas studied constitute only a very small fraction of those known. Nevertheless, some important conclu­sions emerge from the measurements.

First, it is evident from a comparison of Tables 1 and 3 that heat pro­duction obtainable by drilling exceeds the natural heat output by a consi­derable factor. For Wairakei the ratio is about 5, for Kawerau, where the field is far from being exploited, about 2 , and for T h e Geysers nearly 28 times. In Iceland, where two low-temperature fields only have so far been developed, the ratios are about 3 (Reykir) and 42 (Reykjavik). It is not known h o w long these increased heat flows, which must depend upon some form of heat storage, can be maintained, but neither the Larderello area, which has been exploited at an increasing rate since the beginning of the century, nor Wairakei, where production at a significant level began about twelve years ago, have shown any evidence of exhaustion of the

T A B L E 3. Natural heat flows from selected hydrothermal areas.

., Oil equivalent A r e a H e a t o u ' P u t (Kscal/«*> ( m e t r i c tons/year)

New Zealand

Wairakei Waiotapu Orakeikorako Kawerau N g a w h a

Iceland

High temperature activity (thirteen areas)

L o w temperature activity (nine areas)

United States

The Geysers (California) Steamboat Springs (Nevada)

100 000 142 000 82 000 18 000 9000

1 000 000

100 000

180 7000

351000

1 100 000

300 000 420 000 240 000

53 000 26 000

3000 000

300 000

540 21 000

1 039 000

3 300 000

7 180 21 540

G R A N D TOTAL 1 458 180 4 360 540

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C . J. Banwell

heat supply. Indeed, even very conservative estimates of the stored heat in these areas would indicate productive lives measurable in centuries, though proper control of the water supply and other field management measures will almost certainly become necessary in the course of time.

The second conclusion, somewhat surprising, and of considerable impor­tance from the viewpoint of volcanological theory, emerges from a c o m p a ­rison between the heat output discharged in lavas, ash showers and other volcanic activity in a given area, and the measured heat output of the hot springs. In the central volcanic area of N e w Zealand, the average rate of heat discharge over the past 10,000 years in lavas from the central volcanoes, Ngauruhoe and Ruapehu, and in the seventeen major ash eruptions in this period, is only about one-tenth of the natural heat output from hydro-thermal activity. In the Steamboat Springs area of Nevada the ratio, averaged over a m u c h longer period, is only 1 : 70, and, of the volcanoes whose lava outputs have been systematically studied, only M a u n a L o a has a m e a n rate of heat output in its lavas approaching that of the hydrothermal sys­tems of Iceland or N e w Zealand. A further example is provided by the eruption of the Capelhinos volcano, in the Azores, which was carefully observed, and which produced a m e a n heat output during its period of m a x i m u m activity, between September 1957 and October 1958, about three times that of these systems. Since the last eruption in this island (Faial) occurred in 1672, it is apparent that the long-term m e a n heat output is only very small. If all the recorded eruptions in the Azores group over the past three hundred years (seventeen) are assumed to have been as large as the 1672 eruption, the mean rate of heat output is still only 75 per cent that of Iceland or N e w Zealand, and if the heat flow is averaged over the total land and shoal area of the group, the superficial rate is only about double normal. In the Azores group itself, volcanism is of the Atlantic type, and there appears to be very little hydrothermal activity.

The high ratio of hydrothermal to eruptive volcanic heat output in the areas of acid (Pacific) volcanism can be explained by the generally explo­sive nature of these eruptions, and the resulting preponderance of frag­mentary and permeable material in the deposits. In the course of time, a thickness of several kilometres of ash and breccias, mixed with occasional lava flows, forms a permeable mass through which ground water can circu­late with relative freedom, and through which new lavas must rise. If such lavas lose heat rapidly to the circulating water, they m a y remain at depth for long periods as a circulating m a g m a pool, or as a succession of cooling injections, transferring their heat to the ground water and thus maintaining surface hot spring and geyser activity. T h e situation is not unlike that of a volcano on the ocean floor, except that the overlying frag­mentary material restricts the water circulation sufficiently to prevent the immediate dissipation of heat and promote the establishment of large high-temperature regions which can be tapped for hydrothermal energy.

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Geothermal power

The relations established in the foregoing paragraphs between heat discharged by hydrothermal activity and volcanism on the one hand (say about ten times) and the ratio of production obtainable by drill-holes to natural activity (again about ten times) on the other, give a means for making a very rough estimate of the m a x i m u m amount of geothermal energy that might be found associated with Pacific-type volcanism through­out the world. T h e volumes of volcanic materials produced in the period between 1500 and 1914 have been estimated to be about 393 c u . k m , the greater part of which (some 342.5 c u . k m ) consists of fragmentary mate­rials and lavas of the Pacific type. Taking reasonable values for the heat capacity and initial temperatures of these materials, the m e a n volcanic heat discharge is about 2 X 107 Kgcal/sec. Multiplying these by the above two factors of ten gives a potential heat production of 2 X 10° Kgcal/sec, equi­valent to about 6 X 109 metric tons of oil per year, which is equal to the estimated total world consumption of all forms of primary energy for the year 1978. It is hardly necessary to stress that this figure is highly tentative, and has necessarily been based on extrapolations from what is still a very small amount of sound observational data. Also, it must be recognized that the distribution of this energy throughout the world is far from uniform. Most of it is in the circum-Pacific belt, m u c h on islands of limited area and population, and some in areas of such high volcanicity that it would be imprudent to establish important industries or large populations there. There remain nevertheless m a n y places where hydrothermal energy, used either directly as heat, or for power generation, m a y prove extremely important to the local economy for a long period to come.

USE OF H Y D R O T H E R M A L ENERGY

Since hydrothermal energy is initially in the form of heat, it is reasonable to consider first those applications where heat is used directly for warmth or for some industrial process. All the early uses have indeed taken this form, from primitive cooking in natural springs and fumaroles, to hot baths and spas, heating of dwellings and hothouses, to the extraction of chemical products, such as the borax industry at Larderello. Before the development of electric power transmission, there was no alternative to the use of the heat at or within at most a few kilometres of the production area, and, since m a n y of the k n o w n hydrothermal fields are located in areas which are inaccessible or remote from population and industries, the choice of fields was restricted. Both electric power transmission and the development of drilling techniques for hydrothermal development have greatly altered this situation. In the majority of countries where the use of electric power has become established on an appreciable scale, the d e m a n d has increased at a rate which has pressed heavily on available generating capacity and energy sources, and hydrothermal energy has tended to be regarded as yet

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another alternative which might be considered. In Italy, the trend at both Larderello and in the new fields has been towards the generation of more electric power to feed the hungry networks. T h e situation in N e w Zealand, w h e n hydrothermal power development was first seriously considered, was essentially the same. Grave electric power shortages had developed in 1948-1949, and threatened to continue for some time, so that there was a strong motive for investigating sources which would be supplementary to and could be developed in parallel with the hydroelectric schemes which are the prin­cipal source of electrical energy in this country. Alternative uses for the hydrothermal heat were indeed investigated, but the Wairakei field, which appeared to be the most promising at the time, was not located near any important centres of industry, and transport costs of raw materials and finished product appeared to be a serious difficulty for most of the processes considered. Similarly, in California, the Geysers hydrothermal station pro­duces and sells only electric power. Only in Iceland, where there are still adequate sources of hydroelectric power, combined with a consistently cold climate and an almost complete lack of local fuels, and at Kawerau ( N e w Zealand) where a large pulp and paper mill, using m u c h process heat, is located close to a thermal area, has geothermal heat been developed on a large scale for direct use. In Rotorua (New Zealand), in m a n y parts of Japan, and in a few other areas, individual drill-holes or small groups of holes are used to supply heat for dwellings, swimming baths, hothouses, hospitals and small industries.

It would be unfortunate if electrical power generation came to be regarded as the main or exclusive object of hydrothermal development, for several reasons. Firstly, electrical power generation used alone often involves the waste of m u c h of the heat produced, and has a relatively high capital and operating cost which would put it out of the reach of m a n y developing countries. Secondly, districts without an existing power network m a y be discouraged from development because of failure to realize other possibi­lities, or because a hydrothermal electric station, being essentially a base load station, is difficult to use without considerable supporting capacity to deal with peak loads. The list of suggested uses in Table 4 is intended as a guide only, and the selection of a particular use or group of uses must depend very m u c h upon local circumstances such as the size of the geothermal field, the temperature and pressure at which steam or hot water can be produced, the location of the field in relation to population, harbours and transport, and the nature of local industries.

A s a final comment on application, it might be remarked that a country which has both adequate supplies of fossil fuels and hydrothermal energy sources within its territory m a y still find it advantageous to use hydro-thermal sources for power generation and heating and reserve its fuels for mobile use in vehicles, ships and aircraft, for export, or for use in petro­chemical industries.

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T A B L E 4. Applications for hydrothermal energy.

High-pressure and temperature systems

(Temperature 150-250 ° C , pressure 50-250 psig)

1. Electric power generation. Over-all efficiency 5-20 per cent. 2. Mixed, with high-pressure turbo-alternator stages for electric power followed

by one or m o r e process stages. Over-all efficiency dependent on economic and engineering considerations, but could reach 80-90 per cent full use of heat.

3. Process only, preferably multi-stage, beginning with processes requiring high temperatures such as the drying of inorganic raw materials (e.g., bricks, ceramics, ores) prior to further furnace treatment. Successive stages at lower

temperatures and pressures m a y be separated by heat exchanger if necessary, and used for food cooking and sterilization, drying or concentration of milk and vegetables, grain drying and space heating.

4. Production of fresh water by desalination of sea water, local saline ground water or bore water in multiple-effect evaporators. This is in principle a very efficient w a y of using steam or hot water at any initial temperature, and m a y operate d o w n to a vacuum stage if a supply of cooling water is available. The yield in pounds of fresh water per pound of steam is determined mainly by considerations of capital cost of plant, but could reach 10 or more and, for any given design of plant, the generally low cost of geothermal steam would give an advantage.

5. Concentration of natural brines, and solutions from industrial plant (e.g., ore-processing solutions, sugar concentrates and the like) for the recovery of minerals and foodstuffs. A s in 4 above the heat can be used in a multiple-effect system, giving high yields per pound of steam or hot water.

6. Fractional distillation for separating or purifying natural or industrial fluids. Examples include the production of heavy water from ordinary water, distilla­tion of spirits, petroleum refining, recovery of industrial solvents.

Low-pressure and temperature systems

(Temperature 150-80°C, pressure 50 psig and lower)

1. Electrical power generation. Seldom desirable except in special cases. Over­all efficiency 5 per cent or less.

2. Mixed, with power generation stage only if cost of alternative power sources high. Remaining stages as for 3 to 6 above. Efficiency of use of heat will not be very different, but capital cost per unit of product processed will be higher because of the absence of the less bulky high temperature stages.

3. Feed heating for boilers and other processing plant using fuel heat sources. If the throughput of the plant is great enough to take full advantage of a hot water bore with good yield, the fuel saving m a y justify the bore cost.

4. Space heating in dwellings and hothouses, kiln drying of timber, thermal baths, swimming pools.

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THE FUTURE : GEOTHERMAL ENERGY

U p to the present time, the development of hydrothermal energy has followed very closely the pattern of petroleum development. Both have begun by drilling in areas where there were already k n o w n surface seepages, and both have found large spontaneous flows with relatively shallow drilling. The hydrothermal growth curve parallels the petroleum curve with a time lag of about seventy years, m u c h of this growth being due to the opening up of n e w fields with only minor developments in drilling and development techniques. Indeed, most of the drilling methods and equipment have been taken over with little alteration from the petroleum industry, and the lag in development has been in part due to the lack of transportability of hydro-thermal energy, which had to wait for low-cost electric power distribution before it could find its way to suitable markets. A s with the oil industry, there has been a rapid development in prospecting methods, and areas are n o w being investigated which would not have been judged promising by observation of their surface activity alone. The fields so far explored contain large volumes of hot water to transfer the heat, and enough of the drill­holes encounter well-fissured producing zones to m a k e it appear unnecessary to supplement the water supply, or artificially increase the permeability, by methods of the kind n o w commonly used in oilfields. It seems very probable that m o r e oilfield techniques will be taken over, with suitable adaptions, to maintain production in existing fields as the pre-existing fluid supply becomes exhausted, and to improve production as exploration moves into more difficult fields where there is evidence of an adequate heat supply, but where the natural permeability or water supply are deficient. It must be remembered that, in a geothermal field, what is sought is not a fluid, but thermal energy, the fluid present contributing relatively little to the stored heat, and func­tioning mainly as a means for bringing heat to the surface.

T h e heat production of the hydrothermal fields so far developed repre­sents about 0.1 per cent of world consumption of primary energy from all sources. In N e w Zealand the fraction is about 20 per cent, although only about 5 per cent is delivered to the power system. In Iceland, the fraction used is probably over 20 per cent, but in Italy less than 1 per cent and in the United States m u c h lower. Although the foregoing estimates of energy potential of world hydrothermal systems suggest that the present output m a y be capable of being increased by a factor of perhaps 100 times, the distribution of k n o w n prospective hydrothermal resources does not, in general, correspond well with world distribution of population or industry. At present, Japan appears to have the most favourable combination of popu­lation, high and increasing industrialization and large hydrothermal energy potential, followed by Italy, N e w Zealand, Iceland, Mexico, the Philippines, Taiwan, Central America, the Pacific coast of the United States, and parts of Asia Minor. T h e island of Java has a unique combination of high popu-

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lation density and apparent hydrothermal potential, but in view of its present relatively low level of industrial development, is most likely to benefit in the near future by using the heat to process foodstuffs, fibres and similar agricultural products. However, cheap electric power has generally proved an important stimulus to industrial development, and the discovery of a plentiful source of cheap steam almost anywhere on this island could prove of immense value.

The remainder of the earth, including the major part of all the continents, and the very densely populated regions of India and China, has no evident hydrothermal potential at all. Thus, hydrothermal energy, although it m a y prove to be of immense importance to certain fortunate areas, is unlikely to have a major effect on the world economy as a whole. To put the posi­tion into better perspective, the following table of permanent (i.e., non-dissipative or continuous) world energy resources has been drawn up (Table 5). The estimates have been drawn from what appear to be reliable sources, or have been calculated from available data on what seem to be reasonable assumptions on present evidence, but they should nevertheless be regarded only as indicative of possibilities. A world with a steadily increa­sing need for power may be prepared to divert far more of its resources into developing high cost schemes than would seem reasonable or possible now, and new ways of collecting or converting energy will be devised.

Solar energy has been calculated as 1 per cent of that absorbed over the total land surface, hydroelectric as 20 per cent of the value calculated from mean land height and world rainfall. Hydrothermal is equal to the natural heat flow from all Pacific-type volcanic areas as calculated above. Power in megawatts has been calculated at the rate of 1 megawatt per 1,000 Kgcal/sec, which implies a conversion efficiency of slightly less than 25 per cent. The above figures should be compared with the 1966 world con­sumption of primary energy of 3.5 X 109 metric tons oil equivalent, or about 1 ton oil equivalent per head. Actual oil consumption is about 1.2 X 109 tons, and the mean electrical energy consumption is about 0.1 K w per head. Distribution of consumption is far from uniform. In the United

T A B L E 5. World energy resources (continuous basis).

Source

Solar energy Hydroelectric Tidal Hydrothermal

T O T A L 7.92 x 107 2.35 x 1011

Generating capacity (megawatts)

7 x 10' 8 X 10« 1 X 10« 2 X 10«

Oil equivalent (tons/year)

2.1 x 1011

2.2 x 1010

2.8 X 109

5.8 X 108

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States consumption of all forms of primary energy is equivalent to 6.55 tons of oil per year and per head, while N o r w a y consumes 1.3 K w per head of electric power, compared with an average for Europe of about 0.32 K w per head. Projections of present growths of population and primary energy consumption to the year 2000 give a population of about 6.6 X 109 con­suming primary energy at a rate of about 1.4 X 1010 tons oil equivalent per year, of which about 5.7 X 109 tons will be oil fuels and the remainder other fossil fuels, hydroelectric, nuclear, hydrothermal and solar, including crops grown for fuel.

Most of the energy sources referred to above are complementary rather than alternative. Liquid fuels from petroleum are of unique value for aircraft propulsion, and appear likely to remain so for a long time. Nuclear power m a y in time replace some of the oil n o w used for ship propulsion, while solid fuels, hydroelectric and geothermal energy are essentially non-mobile energy sources, suitable for local use as heat, or for distribution over power networks for driving machinery, electrolytic refining plant, arc furnaces, and industrial and domestic heating. For the best use of these energy sources, it would appear very desirable to reserve the liquid fuels for mobile use, especially in aircraft, and the heavier and non-mobile sources for ship pro­pulsion and all forms of heating. Eventually, as liquid fuels become scarcer, it is to be expected that their price will rise to a level where it will be economic to use primary energy from other sources to m a k e synthetic forms.

Neglecting solar energy, the large-scale conversion of which has so far been severely hampered by high capital costs and the irregularity of the supply, it appears from the foregoing that about half the world energy demand in the year 2000 could be met with oil, and the balance by hydro­electric power if this were fully developed. In reality, hydroelectric energy suffers from a similar disability to hydrothermal; its distribution does not coincide at all closely with that of world population, m u c h is in mountainous and inaccessible country, sometimes the supply is seasonal, and electric power transmission over great distances becomes costly and inefficient. While new techniques, such as direct current transmission, will do something to improve this situation it is probably true that hydroelectric power will be able to meet only a fraction of the requirements of the more densely populated areas, and m u c h of their energy needs must continue to be drawn from consumable resources—oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear fuel, and any other source that can be economically tapped.

Table 6 gives a summary of recent estimates of world reserves of non-replaceable energy sources, all expressed in terms of oil, which is rated for this purpose at 1.068 X 10' Kgcal/metric ton.

Estimate (c) for nuclear energy is based on the arbitrary assumptions that ten times as m u c h uranium can be produced at competitive prices from lower grade ores, and that breeder reactor development will reach the stage where all the uranium can be converted to fissionable material. It appears

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T A B L E 6. Non-replaceable energy resources.

Source Heat equivalent (metric tons oil)

Crude oil ) Natural gas j 12.48 x 1011

Gas oil ) Coal 3.94 x 1011 (a) Proved Coal 4.28 x 1012 (b) Possible and probable

Nuclear

K n o w n high-grade ores 3.9 x IO9 (a) U 235 only K n o w n high-grade ores 5.4 x 1011 (b) U 235 and U 238 Possible workable ores 5.4 x 1012 (c) U 235 and U 238

that, even with both these possibly optimistic assumptions, the world nuclear energy resources from uranium are only of the same order of magnitude as the estimated m a x i m u m coal supply. This situation would be drastically changed by the successful development of a controlled fusion reaction, but, so far, this has not been done.

Assuming that the consumption of non-replaceable fuel resources continues to increase at the present rate (about 4.1 per cent per a n n u m ) until the year 2000, after which the increase becomes the same as the present popu­lation rate (about 1.9 per cent per a n n u m ) , the total reserves of oil, plus proved coal, plus k n o w n high-grade uranium ore with complete conversion (b) would be exhausted by about the year 2066. If the m a x i m u m figures quoted above are used, the possible total of reserves is increased rather more than five times, and exhaustion will occur about the year 2142, by which date the average population density would have risen to 700 per sq.km. Even on the more optimistic assumptions, these reserves have a rela­tively limited life.

GEOTHERMAL E N E R G Y , THE ULTIMATE RESERVE

Virtually every inhabitant of the earth lives within a few kilometres of an energy source which is for all practical purposes inexhaustible, and which is n o w within reach by the application of present-day technology. It can be obtained at any desired rate and in predictable quantity and temperature, and at any desired point, at reasonable cost. T h e product m a y be in the form of electric power, heat energy, or both. There are few hazards and no dangerous waste products to be disposed of.

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T o justify these statements, it is necessary to present some quantitative data. T h e normal rate of increase of temperature with depth near the earth's surface in non-volcanic areas is about 30°C. per k m , ranging from almost zero in a few places to five or six times normal in some areas. Measure­ments in deep drill-holes show that this gradient is maintained d o w n to at least several kilometres, and there is reason to believe that it continues unchanged to depths of the order of a least 10 to 15 k m . Calculation of the thermal energy content of crostai rocks under normal gradient shows that the amount of energy begins to become appreciable at about 3 è k m , and below this increases rapidly until the total d o w n to 7 è k m , the depth which a few prospecting holes have n o w approached, is equivalent to 7,500 m e g a ­watt years or 21 million tons of oil per sq .km. Taking the land area of the earth as 149 X 10" s q . k m , the total energy reserve to this depth is equi­valent to 3.15 X 1015 tons of oil, or about 2.9 X 109 tons of fissionable uranium oxide. This calculation takes account neither of the continental shelves or the ocean bed, all with a substantially similar gradient, nor of the considerable land areas where the gradient is twice normal or more . It m a y be noted that an increase of only one-third in the gradient almost doubles the total stored energy d o w n to 7è k m .

There are a number of ways of bringing this energy to the surface for use. All depend on circulating water or some other heat transfer fluid through the rock, using drill-holes for injection and extraction, the method adopted depending on the structure and physical properties of the rock formations present. This is not the place to discuss these methods in detail, but a few illustrative examples will be listed.

In formations with horizontal bedding and permeable strata, the circu­lating fluid is injected into a suitable formation via a single hole or a row of holes, and extracted via a similar row of holes or a ring of holes at distances up to a few kilometres away, depending on the amount of power and operating life required.

In formations with permeability at depth mainly due to jointing and faults, holes are sited to take advantage of these features so as to give the largest area of contact. W h e r e possible, injection should be into the shallower and cooler zones, and withdrawal from as deep as possible, so as to achieve the most efficient heat transfer, and gain full advantage of convective driving forces.

W h e r e the initial permeability at the desired depths is limited, injection of cold water into the hot formations m a y in some circumstances produce progressively increasing permability by fracture under the induced thermal stresses. In this connexion it is interesting to note that during some initial trials of deep fluid injection in a well of the Rocky Mountain Arsenal near Denver, for the purpose of disposing of radio-active wastes, there was evidence of local seismic activity, apparently connected with the injection. If this correlation is substantiated, it m a y indicate thermal fracture, pro-

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moted possibly by the presence of pre-existing tectonic stress in the forma­tions permeated. Clearly, more tests at other sites, and m u c h more informa­tion with regard to the relation between seismic activity and tectonics, geology, rock temperature at the injection point and the like, will be necessary before this remarkable, and apparently quite unexpected pheno­m e n o n , can even begin to be understood. Another still more interesting possibility arising from these tests is that of controlling potentially disastrous shallow earthquakes by stress relief, to prevent dangerous accumulations. At depths of the order considered here, say up to 10 k m , accumulation of tectonic stress as a source of earthquake energy is still a plausible mechanism, and the disastrous effect of some earthquakes has been due not so m u c h to their magnitude as to the shallowness of their source, and nearness to a large city. Thus, geothermal development, correctly managed, m a y not only supply a populated area with a limitless supply of energy, but also provide protection against certain kinds of earthquake hazard.

W h e r e initial permeability is very limited, fracture by hydraulic pressure applied through drill-holes is a method already established in oilfields. If the formations have traces of horizontal or nearly level bedding, the frac­turing m a y propagate along them. If the rock is almost homogeneous, near vertical or steeply dipping, fracturing m a y occur under the stresses present, leading to the possibility of intersecting the upper part of the fracture with relatively shallow injection holes.

W h a t m a y prove a very attractive alternative in s o m e cases is the use of explosive charges to form large volumes of shattered rock through which the fluid can be circulated freely. The use of nuclear explosives for this purpose has been suggested, and calculation, based on the effects of test explosions at comparatively shallow depth, shows that an explosion with a yield of 250 kilotons, in rock at a temperature of 400°C. (depth 7è to 10 k m , depending on the gradient), would produce about 600 megawatt years of generated energy (1.7 million tons of oil) at a cost, for drilling and explosive, of about 0.5 mill per k w h (or $1.50 per ton of oil). The cost of generating plant and distribution must be added to this, but the over-all cost still compares favourably with present-day wholesale electric power costs in most parts of the world. A recent press report states that an under­ground explosion test with a yield in the order of 200 to 1,000 kilotons was carried out successfully in Nevada on 20 December 1966, without pro­ducing intolerably large seismic effects. T h e amount of explosive energy required is about 2 per cent of the generated energy obtained from the rock, or about 0.5 per cent heat produced.

The problems involved in the development of geothermal energy by any of these means must not be underestimated. Capital costs will tend to be high; new, perhaps radically new, engineering methods will have to be evolved, and our present fragmentary knowledge of the physics of the earth's crust will need to be greatly developed. Practical experience and scientific

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knowledge grow together in an enterprise of this kind, stimulating and assis­ting each other at m a n y points, and past experience in other fields of endeavour shows that, provided the need is pressing enough and the promise of reward sufficiently great, solutions of increasing elegance and effectiveness are found. There is no reason to suppose that it will be otherwise with geothermal energy.

Regarding the claim that geothermal energy is inexhaustible, the theo­retical life for the geothermal energy that appears to be accessible by using production methods n o w k n o w n is about 430 years, using the same basis as for the other resources discussed above. This figure appears at first sight to be short of an 'unlimited' life, but if w e calculate the average world popu­lation density by the date of exhaustion, the year 2430, at the present rate of increase, there would be 194,562 persons per sq.km. There can be little reason to doubt that, long before this level is reached, some factor such as famine, epidemics, nuclear w a r or reason will have intervened to maintain the density at a more tolerable level. A world power demand 100 times the 1966 value could be met from immediately available geothermal resources for about 10,000 years. With improvements in methods of exploitation not involving any radically n e w approach, this life could be increased perhaps five or six times.

The real significance of geothermal power over the rest of this century lies not so m u c h in its immense energy reserve as in its near-universal distri­bution. Unlike most minerals and fossil fuels, it is the monopoly of no country or region, and is available to all w h o have the enterprise and skills to tap it. T h e fact that it can be developed in the requisite quantity in almost any place where it is wanted gives it a unique value for supplying existing areas of high population density, or providing power for mining and similar industries in remote, inaccessible or inhospitable areas. General applica­tions for geothermal energy are essentially the same as those for hydro-thermal energy discussed above, but its special characteristics suggest some uses and produce some consequences that merit reference.

Important ore deposits are often located far from suitable energy sources for processing and refining. It is therefore not u n c o m m o n for the ore to be shipped in a more or less raw and therefore bulky form from the mine to a location sometimes thousands of kilometres away, where there is cheap power for refining and reduction to the final product, which is then shipped to the markets. T h e availability of plentiful and cheap power at the mine would permit the final product to be shipped direct to markets, or subjected to further processing and fabrication in a single unit near the ore body. Further, by suitable planning, the life of the geothermal power source deve­loped could be adjusted to match that of the ore body, thus minimizing costs, or it could be enlarged to provide power for new industries to employ communities dependent on the mine. If the nature of the ore processing required mainly low temperature heat, this could be obtained relatively

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cheaply by drilling shallower holes, without in any w a y prejudicing the later production of heat at higher temperatures for power generation or other purposes.

In m a n y parts of the world, especially the tropics, agricultural production is limited mainly by poor soil fertility or lack of usable water. A local power source which could be used for the manufacture of fertilizers by atmospheric nitrogen fixation, and for desalination or pumping of local water supplies could improve the food supply of the area radically without the necessity for importing either fuel or raw materials.

Areas which are desert at the present time, but potentially fertile, can be brought into production, and mutually complementary agricultural and industrial communities established by using geothermal energy to bring ground water to the surface, recharge depleted aquifers with desalinated sea water, and provide electric power and heat for homes and industries.

In cold climates, geothermal heat can be produced at relatively low cost by shallower drilling to heat dwellings and hothouses for the production of high vitamin fruit and vegetables.

If undersea settlements come to be established on the sea bed of the con­tinental shelves or elsewhere, for the exploitation of ore deposits or other purposes, geothermal energy will provide a plentiful, safe and convenient source of heat and power throughout the life of the settlement.

A further consequence of the drilling of comparatively deep holes in m a n y n e w parts of the earth will be a greatly increased probability of the discovery of n e w mineral deposits and ore bodies, as well as a greatly improved knowledge of the structure and geology of the earth's crust. T h e discovery of new sources of metals and minerals is likely to become of major importance within the next few decades as k n o w n high-grade deposits become worked out, and serious shortages of key metals threaten to develop. A deep-seated ore body m a y be worked simultaneously for its mineral content and for its power, in certain cases, by establishing a shatter zone in the ore body by a nuclear explosion, and circulating suitable solvent solutions to bring both heat and useful minerals to the surface.

A widely disseminated source of power should lead to a more uniform distribution of world population in the course of time, once the need to cluster about fuel and raw material sources is removed. Although climatic variations and the uneven distribution of some essential minerals will always tend to produce some differences, it is possible to envisage a world of more nearly self-contained, well-balanced groups, with travel and transport increasingly devoted to cultural and educational purposes rather than to commerce.

Looking farther afield, it m a y be suggested that thermal conditions very similar to those in the earth's crust m a y be present in the m o o n and inner planets, since their composition and m o d e of formation appear to be very similar. If this proves to be the case, future settlements on these bodies

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m a y find crustal thermal energy a very convenient and plentiful source of power. They are very unlikely, on present evidence, to find any fossil fuels, and even uranium will be expensive to transport from earth.

In conclusion it m a y be remarked that the present position with regard to the exploration of the earth's interior is not very different from that of Europe in the Middle Ages with regard to the earth's surface at about the time Columbus set out to discover a n e w route to the Indies. The oceans were k n o w n mainly as a source of storms, dangers and mysterious wealth, and the explorer was assisted or hampered by a nearly inextricable tangle of theological beliefs and travellers' tales, by the observations and supersti­tions of coastal fishermen w h o seldom ventured out of sight of land other than by accident, and by the understandable doubts and hesitations of those he expected to provide the money and equipment for his enterprises. Today, the surface of the earth is nearly all well-explored and accurately m a p p e d , and it has indeed proved to be a source of far more riches than the early explorers could have imagined, but w e still k n o w the interior most directly only as the source of disastrous earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, neither yet well understood or satisfactorily explained. T h e would-be explorer is again assisted or confused by the extrapolations and theories of geologists, the travellers' tales of seismologists, the scanty and often contradictory observations of volcanologists and geophysicists, the beliefs and experience of miners and drillers w h o have penetrated a few kilometres into the crust in a few limited areas; and by the understandable doubts and hesitations of those w h o are expected to provide the money for bolder explorations. The promise of great wealth is certainly there. It m a y yet exceed our present expectations.

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Chemistry and society V

H . Rabaté The development of the varnish and paint industry during the past two decades

INTRODUCTION

Paint is as old as the world in the sense that its history is interwoven with that of the earliest beginnings of mankind.

W e find it everywhere and in all ages, and it is no exaggeration to say that it represents one of civilization's richest treasures—as the dispenser of colour, which Goethe called 'the daughter of light', it is a source of joy and hence of life.

For centuries, the making and use of paint stayed in the domain of art. Later great architects and decorators were drawn into the round; but it w a s not until the end of the eighteenth century that painting and paint-making were reborn as a n e w branch of occupational activity tributary to s o m e extent, if not to science, at least to technology.

T h e early nineteenth century saw sensational discoveries affecting the basic raw materials—oils, solvents and pigments.

In the twentieth century, the making of varnishes, paints and related liquid- and solid-base preparations took on an industrial character and labo­ratories were started to investigate and check both the basic characteristics of the semi-finished and finished products, and the opt imum conditions for using them.

With the prodigious advances of organic and physical chemistry during the first half of the twentieth century, there appeared m a n y types of n e w binding agents (artificial and synthetic resins based on macromolecular c o m ­pounds), n e w solvents, thinners and plasticizers, particularly petroleum deri­vatives, and also new pigments including artificial metallic reds and browns, organometallic pigments and strictly organic pigments.

T h e paint industry has become a great branch of the chemical industry, possessing huge resources and exercising the unusual privilege of contri­buting at once to the economic, physical and cultural well-being of m e n and w o m e n everywhere.

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H . Rabaté

A W I D E R A N G E OF USES

Organic and semi-organic varnishes, paints and related solid- and liquid-base preparations must fulfil three main functions: protection of substrates (metals and alloys, temperate or tropical timber, masonry, etc.) against all forms of external attack, either by normal weathering or by other adventi­tious agents of chemical and physical disintegration; decorative effect, in almost all cases; frequently also, hygiene (fungicidal, larvicidal, pesticidal, microbicidal, insecticidal preparations, etc.).

Today, in addition to these primary functions of protection, decoration and hygiene, paints and allied products can be called on to do a number of other jobs which, though less usual, are by no means unimportant.

O n e of the most frequent is that of ensuring safety and comfort. In m a n y circumstances visual warnings are as reliable as acoustic warnings, if not more so, their effect being achieved principally by the eye-catching quality of certain colours and combinations of colour.

T o some extent, protection against corrosion must be considered a safety function, since it m a y prevent sudden fractures of, for example, the gantries of travelling cranes or wires in carrying cables at points where cracking corrosion m a y develop rapidly. In addition, certain paints, usually red or white, are used to form films on parts of machines and structures which m a k e it easier to detect fine cracks on the surface of metals and ferriferous alloys.

In m a n y countries norms have been prescribed for the use of coloured 'safety paints'. T h e Association Française de Normalisation ( A F N O R ) states in this connexion: 'The purpose of safety paints is to draw attention to actual or potential dangers in work places or places of c o m m o n resort, to facilitate their identification and to guard against them by appropriate action. Colours m a y also be used on appliances and equipment designed for the prevention of accidents.'

The use of coloured paints on machine-tool jigs permits of improvements at once in productivity and in workers' safety. A combined solution, in electric welding shops, to the problems of protecting workers' eyes against the harmful effects of ultra-violet radiation and of adequate lighting and good visibility, can be achieved by finishing the inside wall surfaces with preparations combining whitish colours with m a x i m u m ultra-violet absorp­tivity.

Purpose-made signal paints are used to indicate the levels of contents in tanks and to also facilitate the detection of leakages of liquids, especially hydrocarbons, whether stored in tanks or circulating in filling and discharge pipe systems.

Considerable progress has been m a d e in the reduction of eye strain and corresponding nervous exhaustion by the application of preparations with so-called anti-reflection films to cut d o w n dazzle caused by a light source, regardless of its position in relation to the observer's eyes. Similarly, shading

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paints for glazed roofs, bays, windows and so on, in industrial premises, used during the hot s u m m e r months, forming matt white or coloured (blue, green, etc.) films of high opacifying power, markedly reduce the effects of glare on the eyes of the workers and prevent excessive rises in the inside air temperature.

Under certain working conditions, coats of oily paints m a y m a k e very effective protective buffers against explosions that m a y be caused by the accidental contact of certain metals in the molten state with water or d a m p patches on the inside walls of recipients.

Certain types of paint have properties of heat conduction, retention or resistance by means of which both heat and cold can be combated effectively. They m a y be paints of high heat conductivity, which promote the passage of heat from the inside to the outside and avoid untoward rises in temperature within confined spaces; or paints of low heat conductivity, which, on the contrary, stop heat from escaping and thus prevent an uncomfortable fall in temperature inside a building. Related to these are paints designed to stand up to high temperature; paints designed to stand up to low temperatures; what are called fire-proof paints which slow d o w n the propagation of fire; and paints with high reflective power in the infra-red band of the solar spectrum which reduce the amount of heat absorbed by the deck-plates and topsides of ships sailing tropical waters with cargoes of foodstuffs, especially fruit, and cut d o w n evaporation losses of liquid hydrocarbons in overground storage tanks.

Paints whose electrical properties are put to good use in industry include those forming films of high dielectric rigidity and those which are good elec­trical conductors, necessary for instance for metal surfaces on which elec­tric spot-welding is to be carried out after painting.

T h e enantiotropic properties of certain substances are utilized in pyro-metric paints, producing films whose solid constituents, of which only very few are true pigments, change colour according to the temperature they are subjected to (the change m a y be either reversible or irreversible).

S o m e paints have special waterproofing properties producing hydrophobic and 'hydrophractic' films that are highly impermeable to water in all its forms.

Special preparations have been developed for circumstances in which toughness is essential. These produce high-rugosity, abrasive films entirely resistant to erosion and wear through friction and shock, which can be used for the decks of oil tankers, the treads of metal staircases and zinc roofing traversed frequently by maintenance m e n . Conversely, 'lubricant' prepara­tions produce uniform, smooth, comparatively soft films on which things slide easily.

Lightness is often a desired quality and paints with a very low specific mass have been developed for the treatment of ballistic missiles, rockets and guided missiles.

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T h e photolytic properties of light-sensitive varnishes used for reproduction of drawings m a y be contrasted with the reflective (impermeability) properties of other products in the ultra-violet and infra-red radiation bands respec­tively.

M a n y applications can be found for sound-proofing paints and for anti-vibration preparations on the sheet metal of railway carriages and carriage doors and car bodies.

Anti-fouling properties are found in paints forming films which shed air­borne dust and underwater paints for finishing coats on ships' hulls below the water line. Similarly, anti-condensation and de-icing properties are called for in industry and elsewhere.

Baroscopic and hygrométrie preparations, based on cobalt compounds , change colour according to the variations in barometric pressure and atmos­pheric humidity.

F r o m the foregoing w e m a y gather some idea of the already manifold use­fulness of paints. At the same time the current diversification and industriali­zation of actual painting techniques hold further promise.

Set out below in Table 1 are approximate figures of per capita consump­tion of varnishes, paints and related liquid- and solid-based preparations in selected countries in 1957 and 1964.

THE PREVENTION OF CORROSION IN GENERAL

In every country of the world there are constant warnings by informed tech­nologists of the seriousness of the deterioration to which building materials exposed to the open air are subject.

M o r e specifically, the estimation of losses of metals and alloys through corrosion—using the term in the widest sense, and including corrosion in

T A B L E 1. Per capita consumption of varnishes, paints, etc., in selected countries (in kg)1.

Country 1957 1964 Country 1957 1964

6.5 9 6.5 9 7.5 8.5 8 8.5 6 7.5 2.5 6

1. These can only be approximations as there are certain disparities in the methods of calculation used by the non-official and official bodies concerned in the countries in question.

United States of America Canada Sweden Federal Republic

of Germany France United Kingdom

16 14 10.5

7.5 7.7 8.2

18 15 12

11 9.5 9.5

Netherlands Denmark Belgium Norway Switzerland Italy

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Development of the varnish and paint industry

the open air caused by bad weather, submarine corrosion caused by sea water and underground corrosion caused by properties of the soil—is causing increasing concern in industrial and economic circles. Responsible bodies in both categories are trying to alert public opinion to the growing danger of a serious decline in national wealth through the unrelenting process of destruc­tion, which is the natural concomitant of the accelerated reversion of chemi­cally less stable base metals and alloys to the more stable mineral forms from which they started.

Towards the end of the Second World W a r , in 1944, an English writer qualified rust as a 'fifth column'. In September 1949, Herbert H . Uhlig asserted that corrosion caused a degree of waste which represented a challenge to the powers of technologists and science alike. Table 2 shows the degrees of corrosion of steel by atmospheres of varying corrosivity.

T h e same author has estimated (1954) annual steel losses in the United States of America by atmospheric corrosion alone at approximately $2,000 million and that country's annual losses from corrosion of metals and alloys of all kinds at nearly $6,000 million, with nearly half this huge sum as the amount required to finance the prevention of the corrosion by the provision of protective coverings of all kinds including varnishes, paints and related preparations. (This information was provided by various specialists in October 1963 at the National Metals Congress held in Cleveland by the American Society for Metals.)

F . N . Alquist m a d e the point that the annual loss of one of the main m a n u ­facturers of chemicals in the United States by corrosion of metals and alloys had reached a figure of $20 million.

Another example in the United States is provided by the railroad c o m -

T A B L E 2. Degrees of corrosion of steel by atmospheres of varying corrosivity

Place Type of atmosphere Degree of corrosion

Khartoum Continental, dry 1 Singapore (Malaysia) Tropical, marine 9 Freeport, Tex. (United States) Rural, marine 19 Kure Beach, Tex. (United States) Marine 38 Freeport, Tex. (United States) Marine 39 Pittsburg, Pa. (United States) Industrial 65 Sheffield (United Kingdom) Industrial 78 Frodingham (United Kingdom) Industrial 100 Kure Beach, N . C . (United States) Marine 470 Freeport, Tex. (United States) Industrial, marine 501

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panies whose combined anti-corrosion bill for rolling stock was running at $191 million per a n n u m around the 1953-55 period.

D r . L . V . Mclntire, of the Southwestern Louisiana Institute, has stated that 30 to 40 per cent of annual steel production in the United States is used to replace steel in service that has been seriously damaged by corrosion, remarking that, in the oil industry alone, the United States has to meet steel replacement and maintenance costs totalling $600 million a year.

At a technical meeting held on 2 2 January 1954 in L o n d o n by the Corro­sion G r o u p of the Society of Chemical Industry, D r . J. C . Hudson stated that the annual cost in the United Kingdom of protecting metals and ferriferous alloys against corrosion totalled $200 million, this estimate being based on the cost of protecting the country's annual output of metals and ferriferous alloys with varnishes, paints and related preparations.

In a report issued by the National Chemical Laboratory, London, in July 1960, it was stated that annual losses through corrosion in the United Kingdom came to approximately £ 6 0 0 million.

Such figures are as eloquent as they are disturbing. S o m e of them are certainly misleading since the authors sometimes fail to indicate to what period of their country's metallurgical activity they are referring. Never­theless, the fact remains that the study of the problems of corrosion and its prevention must remain a constant concern of private companies and State bodies in any w a y responsible for preserving the national wealth.

Today, corrosion is combated by a multitude of methods exhibiting appre­ciable dissimilarities; the choice of method in each particular case is dictated by a diversity of technical and financial considerations.

T h e different types of approach are broadly as follows: (a) modifying the chemistry of metals and alloys exposed to corrosion (use of corrosion-resistant materials); (b) modifying the chemistry of corrosive milieux; (c) applying inorganic, semi-organic or organic protective coatings which consti­tute a reasonably effective and lasting barrier between metals and alloys and corrosive milieux; (d) cathodic protection.

Protective coatings, which are legion today, are conveniently divided into metal coatings and non-metallic, the most important element in the latter group being varnishes, paints and related preparations.

T h e protection of metals and alloys against corrosion by means of var­nishes, paints and related preparations is still undoubtedly both the most convenient and the cheapest method—it is simple and adaptable to nearly all cases, its all-round effectiveness being mainly ascribable to the fact that, over the last few decades, there have been repeated sensational advances in the field of pigments, solvents, plasticizers and, above all, film-formers.

T h e exceptional variety of the semi-artificial, artificial and even synthetic resins n o w available to the varnish and paint industry cannot be overstressed —this diversity of sources and combinations offers the widest possible choice between binding agents and derived suspension media so that, for any given

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use, a preparation can be compounded to form a film whose physical, physico-chemical and chemical characteristics are exactly adjusted to the stringency of the physical conditions and the length of service required.

T h e fundamental part played by varnishes, paints and related preparations in preventing the corrosion of metals and alloys is eloquently illustrated by the fact that, out of every 100 sq. m of constructional metals and alloys in the true sense, approximately 75 to 8 0 sq. m are in fact protected by organic or semi-organic coatings; furthermore, the remaining 2 0 to 25 sq. m consisting almost entirely of zinc-based metal facings are often treated additionally with a suitable paint, to enhance either their durability or the decorative effect.

STUDY OF CORROSION AND MARINE FOULING

In April 1955, the Sub-Committee for Research Co-operation of the Orga­nization for Economic Co-operation and Development ( O E C D ) reached the view that the concerned nations could usefully be induced to undertake a c o m m o n research programme on the study of the corrosion and fouling of the hulls of sea-going ships. A n initial meeting of a group of experts from Belgium, France, Federal Republic of G e r m a n y , Italy, N o r w a y and the United K i n g d o m was held in Paris in October 1955, at which the following recom­mendations were adopted: 1. The Group considers that research on the protection of ships' hulls against

corrosion and fouling presents possibilities of international co-operation which are worth studying very seriously.

2. A s regards technological studies on protective compositions, the ineluc­table exigencies of military security and industrial secrecy are a major obstacle to such co-operation.

3. O n the other hand, the Group does recommend the international study of the following two aspects of problems relating to fouling. (a) Standardization of testing methods including, though not restricted

to, the following: (i) Technique for the utilization of testing rafts, (ii) Standardized presentation of reports of tests on rafts and ships'

hulls, (iii) Centralization and circulation of studies on the natural conditions

(environmental characteristics, flora and fauna) prevailing at testing stations, in ports and on ocean routes of regular lines, etc.

(b) Fundamental research on biological, chemical and physical problems. T h e Group recognizes that, taken together, these problems represent an enormous field of research, but considers that, by exploiting, under both national and international arrangements, all the facilities avail­able in participant countries, it would be possible, eventually, to achieve far-reaching results.

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4 . The Group recommends that, within the above terms of reference, an examination of these problems be carried out in each country with the co-operation of the appropriate bodies, with a view to the preparation of the forthcoming meeting and with the intent of ensuring that their coverage at that meeting is as comprehensive as possible.

Joint research projects were discussed and agreed, and consequential deci­sions taken on the details of the tests to be carried out. The results of the latter, effected between 1956 and 1966, have been systematically circulated.

Today w e have an admirable schematic of the course to be followed to arrive one day at solutions which are both sound and economical for the arduous problems raised by the prevention of marine fouling and of the corrosion towards which fouling is a far from negligible factor.

THE EVOLUTION OF PAINT-MAKING AND PAINT-USING TECHNIQUES

Techniques both for processing the raw materials and semi-finished and finished paint products, and for using the latter, have evolved extensively and rapidly in the past ten years.

Great store is n o w set by coated or nucleated pigments, in which the active constituents form skins round cores of an inert substance.

Recourse is also had to pigments improved by surface treatments—thus the makers of titanium whites strive to modify the nature and surface state of those products' particles so as to m a k e them less prone to chalking and yellowing. It is possible, for example, to secure high resistance to chalking by covering the elementary titanium dioxide particles with a hydrophobic and organophile resinous product; against yellowing use is m a d e , more par­ticularly, of improving agents based on aluminium phosphate.

Prussian blue, ultramarine blue, lead chrome and titanium dioxide are m a d e hydrophobic and organophile by surface coatings with various c o m ­pounds with a high molecular weight.

The colour retention of some inorganic pigments is substantially improved by a surface treatment using trace quantities of high-stability complex c o m ­pounds.

In the field of binding agents, two types of artificial resin have assumed great importance—epoxy resins and polyurethane resins.

The study, both of the characteristics of ready-mixed preparations and of the dry films they give, has m a d e considerable strides thanks to n e w methods of physical examination: visible, ultra-violet and infra-red spectrography; mass spectrography; X-rays, X-fluorescence; nuclear magnetic resonance; electric paramagnetic resonance, and so on.

A thorough knowledge of rheology phenomena, which determine the mechanical properties and strength of materials provides invaluable infor­mation for the choice of a paint. Elasticity, viscosity, plasticity, dilatancy and

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Development of the varnish and paint industry

thixotropy all c o m e within the field of rheology, and Theological principles are the starting points for the detailed examination of a variety of perma­nently recurring problems: agitation of reactive media, grinding of pastes and mastics, preservation of ready-mixed paints, applying paints, drying and hardening of paint films, etc.

T h e use of several layers of varnish, paint or related preparations for protective coatings of appreciable and uniform thickness on relatively rough-surfaced steels usually runs into snags in the shape of phenomena still little k n o w n occurring in the passage of the first paint film to the dry state on the sharp edges of ridges or the points of spicates on the surface or at the bottom of roughly punctiform cavities where there is always a danger of shearing action.

Again, the length of the effective protection afforded by paints, etc., is essentially conditioned by their elasticity, by the mutual adhesion of the successive coats and, above all, by the adhesion of the priming coat to the steel beneath which, in its turn, depends on the steel's wettability by the paint used for the priming coat and the latter's easiness of application.

T h e ease of application of paints, their body and their power, w h e n freshly applied, to mould as closely as possible to the inequalities in the surface of a comparatively rough substrate are also within the purview of rheology.

T h e present pursuit of industrial rationalization conduces to the use of easy, rapid and labour-saving painting methods consisting in the treatment with an appropriate paint or related preparation of prefabricated building components, e.g., concrete slabs and panels, w o o d e n panels, curtain-walls and claddings, steel and aluminium strip, etc.

Brush and roller painting and hot or cold paint spraying, with or without compressed air, are still the most c o m m o n painting methods used in the building trade and in industry for series of objects of variable shapes and dimensions. But m u c h more mechanized, even automated, methods have become essential for handling very large numbers of items of identical shape and dimension. Such methods are becoming increasingly worthwhile since they save labour, increase productivity and, under certain conditions, permit of relatively effective regulation of the thickness of the dry paint films, with a saving in paint.

Painting with electrostatic spray-guns involves creating an electric field around the object to be painted and breaking d o w n the paint into fine 'glomerules', which are then directed into the electric field and pick up a charge.

T h e charged 'glomerules' in the electric field then m o v e towards the object to be painted and fix on its surface. A s the charge they carry with them must be able to escape and return to the generator, a regular high-tension circuit needs to be formed.

There are four types of electrostatic spray-gun in current use: electrostatic

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spray-guns proper, centrifugal-atomizing models, pneumatic atomizing m o d ­els and high-pressure hydrostatic atomizing models.

T h e paints used with electrostatic spraying devices must necessarily have special electrostatic characteristics—conductivity or, conversely, resistivity. A point to note is that the spread of the resistivity values of such paints can range, say, from 107 to 109 o h m s / c m , it being understood that the range will decrease in inverse proportion to the degree to which the projection of the paint glomerules is determined by the strength of the electrostatic forces employed.

Immersion painting is employed in industry for various purposes, such as coating metal furniture parts, car-body sections, angle irons used in building and intricately shaped objects whose surfaces it is difficult to get at with other painting techniques. Its drawbacks are that it gives films of non-uniform superficial structure and internal texture frequently presenting some areas of excessive thickness through trickling or dripping and others too thinly coated or even bare of paint as a result of freak dilution of the fresh film, on emer­ging from the bath, on the surface of which there is inevitably an abnormally high concentration of volatile liquid elements.

T h e 'irrigation' process, or trickle process, consists in running paint on to the objects to be treated. In 'curtain irrigation' objects pass through a curtain of paint flowing from a narrow, adjustable slit.

Painting with rollers or cylinders, which is very c o m m o n today, for the high-speed strip-coating, before machining, of highly flexible sheet steel (steel strip) that has been chemically passivated by phosphatizing treatment, for example, and of galvanized steel sheet, tin plate and aluminium sheet gives films of even thickness and ensures exceptionally high rates of pro­duction. For example a seven phase strip-coating chain (readying; passivation; drying; painting; stoving; cooling; winding off), taking a strip of steel 1 m wide moving at a speed of 40 m / m i n , turns out 30,000 sq. m of painted sheet in eight hours with six to eight w o r k m e n .

T h e application of paint by electrophoresis—which must be understood as including electrolysis, electro-osmosis and electrocoagulation at the same time—can be considered as a form of immersion painting in which the formation of the fresh film is facilitated by acceleration with two electrodes, the object to be painted acting as the anode and the vat containing the paint as the cathode.

T h e first electrophoresis strip-coating chain came into service at the end of 1962 at the Cowley works of the Pressed Steel C o . Ltd., using the Electrocoat process developed by Imperial Chemical Industries Ltd.

In the United States, several motor car manufacturers and makers of metal furniture and joinery are trying, in collaboration with various paint m a n u ­facturers, to develop their o w n electrophoresis coating processes—a notable instance is the Ford Motor C o . , which has been working with the Glidden C o . and the Pittsburgh Plate Glass C o .

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Development of the varnish and paint industry

T h e problems raised by the compounding of 'electro-deposition' paints are m a n y and have not yet been entirely solved. They include: the choice of polymeric substances, that are soluble or dispersible in water and capable, under the action of an electric field, of moving towards one or other of the electrodes; study in detail of the 'electro-depositing' characteristics of paints, which are affected by m a n y factors; and basic research on the three pheno­m e n a of electrophoresis (movement of electrically charged particles in suspension under the action of an electric field), electrolysis (phenomenon of dissolution and ion discharge), and electro-osmosis (the reverse of elec­trophoresis), the dispersed phase remaining fixed and the liquid phase moving under the action of the electric field.

This auspicious evolution of paint-making and using techniques depends to a great extent on increasingly close collaboration between engineers, architects, manufacturers and users. Manufacturers, w h o are always ready to take advantage of n e w and interesting raw materials, have developed the habit of circulating more and more information to the users of their products and pass on to them the results of their o w n laboratory work while leaving them the initiative of carrying out their o w n research and trials on the job.

T h e users thus assist the development of the paint industry by adopting such n e w products as present improved characteristics and conversely, the users' requirements influence manufacturing trends, research on the use of n e w raw materials and so on, conducing to increased activity both in the research laboratories and in the production plants.

T h e enormous amount of building that has been going on for the past two decades all over the world, and especially in Europe, has led to a marked increase in the production of varnishes, paints and related preparations with liquid and solid bases; as a result, with the development of both pure and applied research, there have been appreciable improvements both in the c o m ­position of multiple-coat protective and decorative coatings and in the principles for executing them.

T h e public are becoming daily more conscious of the valuable services rendered by these preparations in terms of economics (preservation of all kinds of structures and buildings), in purely industrial terms (increased pro­ductivity), and lastly, from the social and h u m a n angle (improved conditions of hygiene and safety).

It only remains to express the hope that the general public will be better and better informed of what it m a y rightly expect from the products of this flourishing, specialized branch of the chemical industry, whose future is so bright with promise.

NATIONAL A N D INTERNATIONAL STANDARDIZATION

T h e principles for the manufacture of pigments, varnishes, paints and related preparations, n o w effectively grounded on the classical methods of physics,

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physical chemistry and chemistry, are sufficiently well established to offer pos­sibilities for the establishment of fairly precise standards and specifications.

Compliance with such specifications is therefore gradually becoming a standing requirement and the negotiation of contracts of any magnitude between buyers and sellers without the stipulation of certain m i n i m u m technical conditions for acceptance is no longer considered acceptable.

M o r e specifically, since our learning (1915-20) to set out requirements in clear terms and to draft specifications with precisely stipulated clauses, it has become essential to take into consideration the results of work done on standardization, nationally and internationally. This being so, two things are necessary: (a) conformity with clearly defined standards must be insisted upon, and (b) a check must be m a d e to ensure that these standards have in fact been observed.

Strict compliance with contract specifications based on national and inter­national standards has become all the more necessary since m a n y govern­ment departments and private companies, in France, and no doubt elsewhere, require the prior acceptance of clauses guaranteeing the durability and pro­tective efficacy of varnish and paint jobs, though these guarantees, save in exceptional cases, are not adequately explicit.

If the old expression 'of good quality' which still appears in a multitude of commercial agreements and legal texts, remains applicable for certain transactions, it is completely outdated and therefore inoperative w h e n used without reflection in reference to the products of the industry in general and in particular to pigments, varnishes, printing inks, paints and similar prepa­rations, which have benefited for several decades from the steady and even sensational progress of the scientific disciplines basic to these industries.

These scientific advances have permitted, first, of the manufacture of products of specifically defined characteristics and, secondly, the develop­ment of physical, physico-chemical and chemical testing and checking methods whose rigour and reproducibility guarantee their validity and effectiveness.

These testing and checking methods attest the value of the extensive standardization work carried out at the international level by the Interna­tional Standardization Organization (ISO) and at the domestic level, by such bodies as A F N O R .

It is undeniable that judicious standardization presents significant advan­tages for the economy.

However , as the Director-General of A F N O R has said, w e should 'no longer consider standardization as something which has been done once and for all, but as the technique for establishing and promulgating a body of stan­dards which need to be brought up to date and developed ever more rapidly to keep them in line with the evolution and expansion of h u m a n activities. . . . Consequently, the line of evolution to be followed for methods of standar­dization must be in the direction of greater speed of action and bolder anti-

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Development of the varnish and paint industry

cipation of technological developments, even if it means the standards no longer being accepted as unanimously as in the past—it is no use being in agreement on an already out-dated technique. Hence, except in the matter of terminology, the obligatory character of the standards will have to be attenuated.1

PAINT A N D C O L O U R

Colour has become one of m a n ' s most valuable allies and the means by which he can m a k e the best use of it are nowadays m a n y and varied thanks to the great range of proven manufactured products and building materials both old and new at his disposal: stained glass; ceramics; stone and marble tiling; carpets and hangings; appliquéd metals and alloys; wallpapers; veneers of natural, laminated and densified woods; moulded plastic panelling; and in particular varnishes, paints and related preparations, which flourishing in­dustry, proud of its past and confident of the future, puts into the hands of the artists and decorators commissioned for work on dwellings, factories, shops and offices whether building or already in existence.

T h e earliest achievements of the technique of decoration with paint can still be admired in such famous palaeolithic cave-dwellings as Lascaux which Fernand W . Windeis has finely described as the Sistine Chapel of prehistory.

It can justly be asserted that these early m e n have victoriously held time at bay with their works of decorative art which mingle drawings from the life and pictorializations of mystical belief, in a symphony of tones and sym­bolism.

Over the thousands of years since geological times, our ancestors of the reindeer era have handed d o w n to us the proof of the sense of colour which was their o w n spontaneous development though probably more as a reflection of their religious thinking than of an aesthetic ideal that as yet they could only partially conceive.

While modern varnishes, paints and related preparations serve above all to ensure the survival of the rarest artistic treasures, the purest architectural splendours and the most audacious works of engineering, thereby conserving and even enhancing the legacy of the bygone generations, they have the additional role of affording the m a n of today faced with ever more weary and depressing conditions of life, the potent inspiration of colour, whose physical, physiological and even therapeutic influence can no longer be ignored.

Physically, psychologically and, above all physiologically, workers are directly influenced by the colours of the wall surfaces in their places of work and the relief of fatigue of the peripheral or central nervous system that can be thus effected needs no further demonstration. In addition, it is possible

1. In a paper presented to the General Assembly of A F N O R in Paris on 25 M a y 1965.

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to deceive the eye completely as to the dimensions of a room by judicious colouring of the painted surfaces, so that panels appear to be wider or narrower than they are and ceilings higher or lower. Thus the look of a long, narrow room can be improved by treating the end wall with a paint of a darker or lighter colour than the side walls.

If the individual needs colour at work, he also needs it in his leisure periods.

Thus, for example, a restful atmosphere can be created, at least in part, by a sound choice of colour schemes for the rooms where manual and non-manual workers seek a few hours' relaxation.

At all times and in all circumstances, varnishing and painting jobs are 'paying propositions', alike on the purely economic plane and on that of hygiene, comfort and the satisfaction of the least material aspirations of the mind.

I cannot close this chapter on the m a n y functions of paint without quoting from a text published in 1772 by the famous Watin, which contains in posse all that is still worth saying today, nearly two centuries later, about the extraordinary evocative richness and the astonishing creative power of colour through paint:

'Painting is a liberal art, the child of imagination or genius, which speaks to the eye, attracts it, delights it, fascinates it, and sometimes beguiles it with inconceivable illusions; it uses the noblest of the organs to dominate the senses, touch the heart, arouse and m o v e the passions, instil fear, restore calm, spread terror, create ecstasy and, sometimes, like the portrait of Miltiades, mould great m e n and m a k e heroes.

'Mirror of nature, this art portrays for us nature's graces, wonders, riches and variety; it gives a kind of life to the objects that it picks on by the sweep of the brush strokes and the varied shading of the colours; it is a mirror that reflects and renders faithfully the object set before it but which does not lose the image w h e n the original is removed. O n the contrary, it outlines the form, imitates the shading, copies the colouring, fixing, preser­ving and sometimes even improving all. Through it, everything that exists is reproduced, multiplied and perpetuated, through it all the beauties of the uni­verse m a y be brought together in one portfolio; it can even launch out from the confines of our world, for the imagination lends it wings; and it can glide as freely through the fertile realms of fantasy.

'The child of necessity and luxury, paint is essential to m a n in that it freshens and preserves the most useful and everyday things, embellishing and protecting his apartments and equipages and, by flattering them, contrives to m a k e them pleasing to the eye; providing a means of economy for thrift, an occupation for leisure and expedients for necessity, it offers at little cost the pleasures of an expressive and cheerful adornment which in a m o m e n t can be varied, modified and renewed as fancy m a y desire.'

Thus paint, which is a source of comfort and well-being, of light and

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physical pleasure, is also, for the individual, a source of intellectual pleasures, of intimate satisfactions and therefore of poetry.

A n d not the least strange of the paradoxes of our present restless and anxious existence is the fact that science, at the same time as it daily offers us n e w building materials, with new and changing technical demands, also allows us to offset the inevitable loss of deep spiritual satisfactions brought about by an almost morbid urge to increasing industrialization, through the happy invention of fresh products and processes by which w e can recover, through colour, at least something of the 'Beauty that must die, and Joy whose hand is ever at his lips, bidding Adieu'.

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dialéctica Revue trimestrielle de philosophie de la connaissance

Comité directeur : S'attache à promouvoir les principes directeurs de la méthodo-Ferdinand Gonseth, Lausanne logie ouverte. Image vivante du développement de la philosophie Paul Bernays, Zurich ouverte, elle publie sur cette dernière et ses thèses essentielles H . König, Wabern/Berne des éditoriaux, des articles de fond, des comptes rendus des P . E . Pilet, Lausanne débats et des discussions sur ses tendances et ses engagements

actuels. Rédaction : 12, chemin du Muveran, Organise des débats et publie des enquêtes sur les questions 1000 Lausanne (Suisse) essentielles de la connaissance moderne (Voir par exemple les

numéros sur l'idée de complémentarité avec la participation de Vente et abonnements : cinq prix Nobel de physique, sur les fondements de la psycho-W . Roesch & C l e , Monbijou- logie, du calcul des probabilités, sur la notion d'analogie, sur strasse 9, 3000 Berne (Suisse) le fait et le droit, l'epistemologie de la physique quantique, etc). Prix du numéro : Se prête à la remise en cause du fondement des disciplines Suisse 9 F ; Étranger 10 F abstraites et des bases des disciplines expérimentales.

Abonnement annuel : C o m m e n t e les publications récentes et accorde l'hospitalité de Suisse 30 F ; Étranger 35 F ses colonnes aux discussions de principe à leur sujet.

Appelle à la collaboration tous ceux qui entendent participer à la synthèse et à l'intégration de l'ensemble des connaissances modernes.

Procède actuellement à une enquête sur la question brûlante de la rénovation de l'enseignement des mathématiques, de la physique et de la biologie.

Dialéctica en un m o t est l'organe vivant et la tribune libre de la méthodologie et de la philosophie ouvertes.

L POLITICO Rivista trimestrale di scienze politiche diretta da Bruno Leoni

X X X I , N . 4, Dicembre 1966

F. A . Hayer G . Giglio

B. Leoni

E . Noel

P. Cortney D . Villey

M . Matsushita A . K e m p

A . A . Sheafield P. T . Bauer

B . R . Shenoy G . Von Habsbourg

G . Schmolders

J. M . Buchanan

Y . Iwasa

T h e principles of a liberal social order Cause e fattori della decolonizzazione dell'Africa T w o views of liberty: occidental and oriental (?)

Note e discussioni

Il Comitato dei rappresentanti permanenti presso le Comunità Europe Il prezzo dell'oro d o p o le grandi guerre L'idée occidentale de la liberté T h e core of freedom Welfare without the Welfare State Welfare without the Welfare State Development planning. Foreign aid and economic progress Currency over-valuation in s o m e underdeveloped countries A policy for Africa A theory of incentive taxation in the process of economic deve­lopment Monetary and fiscal policies for economic growth in a free so­ciety Practical problems in the implementation of fiscal and m o n e ­tary policies for economic growth

Tavola Rotonda sul positivismo giuridico (Losano, Tarello Cattaneo, Conte, C a m m a r a t a )

Attività degli istituti Recensioni e segnalazioni

Direzione, redazione, amministrazione: Istituto d Scienze Politiche della Università di Pavia Abbonamento (4 fascicoli) : Italia L. 4 000 ; ridotto per studenti L . 2 500, Estero L. 5 600.

COUNCIL OF SCIENTIFIC AND INDUSTRIAL RESEARCH

CSIR Publications REPORTS A N D SURVEYS Report of the Dycstuff Exploratory Committee Report on the Selection of a Site for the Location of a Rayon Factory in India

by D r . Lavgi Thoria

M I S C E L L A N E O U S Adapted Processes for the Manufacture of Box Sides by B . M . Dass and S. N . Bose Adapted Processes for the Manufacture of Glazed Kid by B . M . Dass and J. C . D e b Austenitic Grain Size Control of Steel by B . R . Nijhawan and A . B . Chatterjee Cottonseed and Its Products by M . N . Krishnamurtbi Directory of Collection of'Microorganisms and List of Species Maintained in India Geological Time Index to Flora of the Upper Gangetic Plain and of Adjacent Siwalik and Sub-

Himalayan Tracts Indian Graphite—Its Beneficiador! and Uses by J. C . Ghosh , R . Banerjee sod

M . R . Aswatha Narayaoa Indian Vegetable Oils as Fuels for Diesel Engines by J. S. Aggarwal,

H . D . Choudhury, S. N . Mukerjee and Lai C . V e r m a n Indian Vegetable Oils as Lubricants in Internal Combustion Engines Manufacture and Application of Liquid Gold by A . R a m . Krimullah

and Lai. C . V e r m a n Patented Inventions of CSIR Patents for Inventions

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M I N E R V A A Review of Science, Learning and Policy Editor : Edward Shils Volume V , Number 2, Winter 1967

ARTICLES Organising for science in Britain: some relevant questions, by Lewis A. G ¡inn Problems of decision-making in Soviet science policy, by Richard Rockingham GUI Libraries for technological universities, by R. J. Dannati American higher education in 1990, by Frank Bowles REPORTS AND DOCUMENTS Recommendations of the Science Council for the Development of Scientific Institutions in

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in Impact

Vol. 32, N o . 2, Spring, 1967

Editorial comment : Biological variation and its human implications

Leaving school Behind, by j. B . Mays , M . A . , Ph. D .

Cellular defence Mechanisms against infection and instrusions, by W . Hartston, M . D . . M . R . C . P . . D . P . H . . D . T . M .

Diseases of animals communicable to man, by W . N . Scott, M . R . C . V . S . , F . R . S . H . , M.I.Biol.

Book reviews.

World Directory of National Science Policy-making Bodies Vol. I: Europe and North America

Répertoire mondial d'organismes directeurs de la politique scientifique nationale Vol. I: Europe et Amérique du Nord

rhis directory was compiled by Unesco with the assistance of the National Commissions. It comprises organizations having at the national level a policy-making function for the planning, organization or co-ordination of scientific and technological research. For each of these organizations, information is provided on its administration, financing and operations.

Volume I of this directory comprises abcut If C entries on national science policy-making bodies of M e m b e r States of Europe and North America.

The succeeding volumes of the directory will deal with the countries of Asia, Latin A m e ­rica, Africa and the Arab States respectively and are planned to appear in 1967 and 1968.

Unesco/F. Hodgson Ltd., Paris-London 1966 (x + 356 p.) Price/Prix : $13 ; 65/- ; 45 F

DIOGENE REVUE I N T E R N A T I O N A L E D E S SCIENCES H U M A I N E S

Rédacteur en chef: Roger C A I L L O I S

Gershom Scholem Abraham A . Moles et J. M .

Oulif Adolph G . Horon

Theodosius Dobzhansky Paul Demiéville

Jean-François Bergier

Sommaire du numéro 58 (avril-juin 1967)

Mysticisme et société

Le troisième homme : vulgarisation scientifique et radio Canaan et l'Egée : mise au point sur les origines gréco-phéniciennes L'évolution créatrice Les premiers contacts philosophiques entre la Chine et l'Europe

CHRONIQUE

Nouvelles tendances en histoire économique

Le numéro : 5,50 F. Abonnement annuel : France, 20 F étranger, 25,50 F. Rédaction et administration : place de Fontenoy, Paris-7' (tél. : 566 57-57). Revue trimestrielle paraissant en trois langues : anglais, espagnol, français. L'édition française est publiée par la librairie Gallimard, 5, rue Sébastien-Bottin, Paris-7'. Les abonnements sont souscrits auprès de cette maison (CCP 169-33 Paris).

Yearbook of international organizations 1964-1965

10th edition, in English, 9 in. x 6 % in., 1,702 pages. Price: U . S . $ 1 8

BACKGROUND This indispensable reference b o o k in the field of international relations, governmental and non-governmental, is produced by the Union of International Associations with the official collaboration of the United Nations Secretariat (Ecosoc Resolution 334 (XT) 1950; United Nations D o c . E /2489 ,1953 ; United Nations D o c . E / 2 8 0 8 , 1955). T h e tenth edition describes 1,897 international organizations, 239 of which did not appear in the ninth edition, issued w o years ago. T h e increases were greatest in the Bibliography, Documentation, Press sector 31 per cent) ; Pure and Applied Sciences (29 per cent) ; and Social Sciences (27 per cent).

CONTENTS Number of organizations

U N I T E D N A T I O N S , SPECIALIZED A G E N C I E S 21

II. E U R O P E A N C O M M U N I T Y 7

C o m m o n Market business and professional groups 233 III. O T H E R I N T E R G O V E R N M E N T A L B O D I E S 151

IV. I N T E R N A T I O N A L N O N - G O V E R N M E N T A L O R G A N I Z A T I O N S , CLASSIFIED A C C O R D I N G T O H E L D O F ACTIVITY: Bibliography, Documentation, Press 54 Religion, Ethics 87 Social sciences, Humanistic studies 67 International relations 106 Politics 14 Law, Administration 45 Social welfare 70 Professions, Employers 78 Trade unions 59 Economics, Finance 33 Commerce, Industry 168 Agriculture 64 Transport, Travel 63 Technology 70 Science 118 Health 150 Education, Youth 83 Arts, Literature, Radio, Cinema, T V 65 Sport, Recreation 76

V . N A T I O N A L O R G A N I Z A T I O N S IN C O N S U L T A T I V E S T A T U S W I T H T H E U N I T E D N A T I O N S . 15 INDEXES

Subject index (key-words) in English. 1,897 international organizations Index of initials (abbreviations). 3,000 addresses of organizations (international and Geographical index to addresses. regional) Subject index (key-word) in French. 12,000 n a m e s of officials

A good way to keep informed about European and world affairs is to read regularly the journal of the German Society for Foreign Affairs:

EU R O P A - A R C H IV Zeitschrift für internationale Politik herausgegeben von Wilhelm Cornides

EUROPA-ARCHIV, now in its twentieth year of publication, contains articles and documents on inter­national relations and a current chronology of world events as well as review articles and a bibliography of recent publications.

Articles in recent issues

A m o s Ben-Vered: Viktor Meier:

Georg W . Strobel: Henry A . Kissinger:

Arnold Hottinger:

Heinzgeorg N e u m a n n :

Israel und Deutschland Rumänien auf d e m W e g e der Emanzipation Zwanzig Jahre Volkspolen Die Überwindung der Spaltungstendenzen im westlichen Bündnis Der K a m p f der irakischen Kurden u m die Auto­nomie Portugal und die Entkolonisierung in Afrika

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E U R O P A - A R C H I V V E R T R I E B

Frankfurt am Main, Grosse Eschenheimer Strasse 16-18

Synthèses Revue mensuelle internationale paraissant à Bruxelles sous la direction de Maurice L A M B I L L I O T T E

Sommaire du numéro 239-240 d'avril-mai 1966

Deux souvenirs, par Robert A R O N Caliban se révolte, par Maurice L A M B I L L I O T T E Harold Wilson dans Londres à l'italienne, par Pierre D E V O S L'Indonésie à la dérive, par Bernard C O U R E T Montherlant humaniste, par Philippe de S A I N T - R O B E R T Entretien avec Dominique Aubier, servante de D o n Quichotte, par

Jean-Michel M I N O N Actualité de Pierre Drieu La Rochelle, par Jean L A C H O W S K I Charles Forot, son action et son message, par Joseph D E L M E L L E L'univers et ses énigmes, par Alfred H E R R M A N N Université et étudiant en Pologne, par J. L U K A S Z E W S K I Paris, spectacle permanent, par J E A N - L E O Littérature : Marcel L E C O M T E , D Î N A D O M S , Michel R I M E T , J. M .

A N D R Œ U Chronique de la poésie : Hélène PRIGOGINE, ARSÈNE GRUSLIN Chronique du théâtre, par Stélios C A S T A Ñ O S de M É D I C I S Chronique des arts, par François M A R E T Notes de sociologie, par Fanny F U K S Synthèses de la presse internationale, par D R A G O M A N Supplément : Ce que nous croyons sur la vie, la mort et l'éternité,

par M . L O R E N Z I N I de B U T T A F O C O

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Cartimez, P . O . Box 134-135, 3, rue 13 Decembrie, B U C U R E S T I . (Tel« : 226.) L a Maison du livre, 13, avenue Roume, D A K A R .

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Textbook Sales (PVT) Ltd., 67 Union Avenue, SALISBURY. Librería Científica Medinaceli, Duque de Medinaceli 4 , M A D R I D 14. For The Courier': Ediciones Iberoamericanas S.A. , calle de Onate IS, M A D R I D . Al Bashir Bookshop, P . O . Box 1118, K H A R T O U M . All publications : A / B C . E . Fritzes Kungl. Hovbokhandel, Freds-gatan 2, S T O C K H O L M 16. 'The Courier1 only : The United Nations Association of Sweden, Vasagatan 15-17, S T O C K H O L M C . Europa Verlag, Ramistrasse S, Z Ü R I C H ; Librairie Payot, 6 rue Grenus, 1211 G E N È V E 11. Librairie internationale Avicenne, boite postale 2456, D A M A S . Dar es Salaam Bookshop, P . O . Box 9030, D A R E S S A L A A M . Suksapan Panit, Mansion 9, Rajdamnern Avenue, B A N O K O K . Société tunisienne de diffusion, 5 ave. de Carthage, T U N I S . Librairie Hachette, 469 Istiklal Caddesi, Beyoglu, ISTANBUL. Uganda Bookshop, P . O . Box 145, K A M P A L A . Meíhdunarodnaja Kniga, M O S K V A G-200. Librairie Kasr El Nil, 38, rue Kasr El Nil, C A I R O . Sub-dépôt: La Renaissance d'Egypte, 9 Sh. Adly Pasha, C A I R O (Egypt). H . M . Stationery Office, P . O . Box 569, London, S.E.I. Government bookshops: London, Belfast, Birmingham, Cardiff, Edinburgh, Manchester. Unesco Publications Center, 317 East 34th St., N E W Y O R K , N . Y . 10016. Editorial Losada Uruguaya, S.A., Colonia 1060, M O N T E V I D E O . Teléfono 8-75-71. Dipuven, avenida Libertador, Qta. 'Dipuven', Urb. Los Caobos, apartado de correos no. 10440, C A R A C A S . Librairie-papeterie Xuân-Thu, 185-193 rue T u - D o , B . P . 283, S A I G O N .

Jugoslovenska Knjiga, Terazije 27, B E O O R A D .

U N E S C O B O O K C O U P O N S

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