Impacts of Czech brown coal mines enlargement: assessment by energy model TIMES-CZ

69TH SEMI-ANNUAL ETSAP MEETING

Lukáš Rečka lukas.recka@czp.cuni.cz

Cork, 30th May, 2016

Agenda

• Motivation

• TIMES-CZ model

• Model Structure

• Scenarios

• Results

• Sensitivity analysis

• Conclusions

• Planned extension of the model

Motivation

Gross electricity production by resource and gross electricity consumption in

the Czech Republic in 1993-2013

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

TW

h

Wind

Biogas

Solar

Hydro

Biomass

Oil

Natural gas

Nuclear

Other

Brown coal/lignite

Hard coal

Gross electricity consumption

Source: Eurostat

Assess the impacts of possible extension of Czech brown coal mines on Czech energy system

• 4 scenarios to assess the ‘breaking’ of the territorial ecological limits (TEL)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

PJ

Planned mining of Brown coal

TEL4

TEL3

TEL2

TEL1

Source: Eurostat

TIMES-CZ

Model of the Czech Energy System including the whole energy ballance

• based on Czech region of TIMES-PanEU

• Updated from 2010 to 2012 data

• ETS sectors disagreated on plant level (except Iron and Steel industry)

• Non-ETS sectors as in TIMES-PanEU

• time horizon 2012-2050

• 5 year periods

• ETS sectors: plant-level data of fuel use, emissions and electricity/heat generated

• District heating partly regionalized

• RES potentials based on State Energy Policy (SEP)

• Reserves of brown coal according to 4 variants of territorial ecological limits

• Capital costs of new technologies based on DIW (2013)

• Fuel cost base on World Energy Outlook 2014

PES

BC reserves

BC Imp./Exp.

Ele

ctr

icit

y

Co

ke

Dis

tric

t h

ea

t

Naft

a

Ga

so

lin

e

Ga

s

Ste

am

Households

BC heating

Gas heating

BM heating

ELC heating

Gas water boiler

District heating

Elc. water boiler

Elc. heat pump

Oil reserves

Oil Import

HC reserves

HC Imp./Exp.

Gas reserves

Gas Import

Biomass

potential

PV, CSP &

thermosolar

potential

Conversion

Sector

Coal processing

Refinery

Heat & Power

generation

Individual ETS sources

Residual heat plants

Nuclear power plants

Residual autoproducers

RES

Electrolysis

Gasisfication Liquefication

Gas processing

Ga

s

Bio

ma

ss

HC

BC

Oil

Win

d

Wa

rm w

ate

r

Ro

om

he

at

Wa

rm w

ate

r

Ro

om

he

at

Pro

ce

s. h

ea

t

LH

2

Commercial Room heat boilers

Process heat boilers

Warm water boilers

Industry

Transport Road

Road - freight

Rail - passanger

Rail - freight

Wind

potential

TIMES-CZ Structure

Scenarios 1) 4 scenarios based on SEP to assess the ‘breaking’ of the

territorial ecological limits (TEL) only

• Main trends according to State Energy Policy (SEP)

• Electricity production, RES, Nuclear, price of EU ETS - up to 40€/CO2t

2) + Relax assuption on Nuclear

3) + Relax assuption on RES

• RES potentials increased according to RES Chamber

Wind Biomas PV Water Geothermal Total

Twh 18.3 22 12.7 2.7 9.7 66

1) Results – Brown coal consumption & mining

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

PJ

TEL 3&4 Domestic demand

TEL 2 Domestic demand

TEL 1 Domestic demand

TEL4

TEL3

TEL2

TEL1

1) Results – Electricity production by source

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

90 000

100 0002

01

5

20

25

20

35

20

45

20

20

20

30

20

40

20

50

20

15

20

25

20

35

20

45

20

20

20

30

20

40

20

50

TEL 1 TEL 2 TEL 3 TEL 4

GW

h

Nuclear

RES

Gas

Brown coal

Hard coal

Other

2) Results – Electricity production by source

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

90 000

100 0002

01

5

20

25

20

35

20

45

20

20

20

30

20

40

20

50

20

15

20

25

20

35

20

45

20

20

20

30

20

40

20

50

TEL 1 TEL 2 TEL 3 TEL 4

GW

h

Nuclear

RES

Gas

Brown coal

Hard coal

Other

3) Results – Electricity production by source

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

90 000

100 0002

01

5

20

25

20

35

20

45

20

20

20

30

20

40

20

50

20

15

20

25

20

35

20

45

20

20

20

30

20

40

20

50

TEL 1 TEL 2 TEL 3 TEL 4

GW

h

Nuclear

RES

Gas

Brown coal

Hard coal

Other

Sensitivity analysis

• TEL 2 – the selected ‚breaking‘ of TEL

• 3 fuel price assumption sets, 4 EUA price scenarios

• 3 scenarios of nuclear development

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Ha

rd c

oa

l

Na

tura

l ga

s

Oil

Bro

wn

co

al - C

zech

Bro

wn

co

al - im

po

rt

Ha

rd c

oa

l

Na

tura

l ga

s

Oil

Bro

wn

co

al - C

zech

Bro

wn

co

al - im

po

rt

Ha

rd c

oa

l

Na

tura

l ga

s

Oil

Bro

wn

co

al - C

zech

Bro

wn

co

al - im

po

rt

WEO-450 Weighted WEO-Cur-pol.

€/G

J

Fuel price assumptions €/GJ

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

€/tC

O2

EUA price scenarios

SEP

WEO-Cur-pol.

WEO-450

Low

Sensitivity analysis – share of electricity a) Nuclear, Brown coal, Water, Wind and PV

Nuclear as SEP

Nuclar - phase out Dukovany 2027

Nuclear - no new PP

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Lignite SEP Water Wind

Lignite WEO-450 Lignite WEO-Cur.Policy Lignite Cur.Policy-low

Lignite EUA-low Lignite Cur.Pol-NoNew PV

Lignite Cur.Pol-NoNew+DU Lignite SEP-NoNew Lignite SEP-NoNew+DU

Sensitivity analysis – share of electricity b) Nuclear as in SEP – Hard coal, Nature gas and Biomas

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Hardcoal SEP Natral gas SEP Bimass & Biogas SEP

Hardcoal WEO-450 Natral gas WEO-450 Bimass & Biogas WEO-450

Hardcoal WEO-Cur.Policy Natral gas WEO-Cur.Policy Bimass & Biogas WEO-Cur.Policy

Hardcoal Cur.Policy-low Natral gas Cur.Policy-low Bimass & Biogas Cur.Policy-low

Hardcoal EUA-low Natral gas EUA-low Bimass & Biogas EUA-low

Sensitivity analysis – share of electricity c) No new Nuclear – Hard coal, Nature gas and Biomas

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Hardcoal Cur.Pol-NoNew Natral gas Cur.Pol-NoNew

Bimass & Biogas Cur.Pol-NoNew Hardcoal Cur.Pol-NoNew+DU

Natral gas Cur.Pol-NoNew+DU Bimass & Biogas Cur.Pol-NoNew+DU

Hardcoal SEP-NoNew Natral gas SEP-NoNew

Bimass & Biogas SEP-NoNew Hardcoal SEP-NoNew+DU

Natral gas SEP-NoNew+DU Bimass & Biogas SEP-NoNew+DU

Conclusions

• ‘breaking’ of the territorial ecological limits does not have significant affect of Czech energy system

• If SEP assuptions are fullfilled

• If higher installlation of RES is allowed - according to

Czech RES chamber assuption

• Approximately 3 mil. t of brown coal would need to be

imported in case of not ‘breaking’ of the territorial ecological limits

• RES are at least competetive with nuclear sources at EUA price at 40€

• Sensitivity analysis shows fuel switch btw Hard coal and Natural gas

Planned extension of the model

Disaggregate Steel and Iron industry on EU ETS plant level

Elasticity of demand

Load curve with higher time resolution - up to hourly profiles

Electricity storage

Better regionalization of heat supply and demand