Implementing SWFDP in Eastern Africa: What our NMHS need from Regional and

Global CentersMichael S.Z Nkalubo

PR UgandaChair EAC Heads of Met. Services

AtNOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction

(NCWCP) College Park, MD 20740(18-20TH JUNE 2013)

Outline of the presentation

• Introduction• Benefits of SWFDP to EAC Met. Services• The role of EAC Heads of MET in SWFDP• Hazards related to extreme weather events• Mobile Weather Alert Pilot in Uganda• Recommendations• Assistance required

Introduction

• We have realised dramatic developments in weather forecasting science over the past few decades through;

– Advances in Monitoring and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) as well as Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS).

– Leading to improved alerting of weather hazards at increased lead times of warnings.

Introduction cont’d

• However, most National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), especially in developing and least developed countries have seen little progress due to;

– Limited budgets and investments in weather monitoring infrastructure

– Low societal perception of the importance of weather forecasting to socio-economic development.

– Increasing gap in application of advanced technology (e.g. NWP,EPS) in early warnings, between developing countries and the developed ones.

Introduction cont’d

• In response to these challenges, WMO instituted the Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) as a bold measure to narrow the gap thru;

– Increasing availability and developing capacity of the NMHSs to use existing NWP and EPS products.

– Enabling NMHSs in developing countries develop and maintain reliable and effective routine forecasting and severe weather warning programmes

Benefits of SWFDP to EAC Met Services

1. CAPACITY BUILDING

• Since 2010 annual training of core group of operational forecasters from the region on severe weather forecasting and warning services in support of disaster risk reduction, and fishing and farming communities.

• Uganda has benefited from special training of all operational forecasters in preparation for mobile weather alert pilot with funding from WMO and training experts from the UK Met Office.

• Forecasters from Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia and Rwanda benefited from the meteorological training course on ECMWF Products. This program is supported by WMO

Benefits cont’d

2. ACCESS TO GUIDANCE PRODUCTS FROM WAFCs.

– From CPC (NOAA) through open website.

– From ECMWF and accessed as WMO member with password.

– From the Met. Office, and accessed with password. (Special Product: 4km Lake Victoria model)

– RSMC – Pretoria

3. ESTABLISHMENT OF THE RSMC- NAIROBI WEBSITE AND PORTAL.

- Products accessed through password.

http://www.meteo.go.ke/rsmc/index.php

Members of the SWFDP-Eastern Africa benefit by way of easy accessibility of both global and regional NWP products some of which are;

RM (14&7km) WRF(14km) COSMO (7km) Met Office LAKE VICTORIA (4km) UK MET OFFICE LAM (12 km)

4. INCREASED AWARENESS OF USERS AND STAKEHOLDRES ON USE OF WEATHER INFORMATION

• A public relations offices have been established at all NMSs in the EAC region.

• Training of a core team in PWS and daily weather programs on National Televisions is undergoing

• NMSs are also encouraged to negotiate with private TV stations to broadcast daily weather forecasts.

5. CONTRIBUTION TO ARCHIVEMENT OF THE MDG’s

• MDG 1 Eradication of extreme poverty and hunger --through enhance food security

• MDG 2 Reduced child mortality• MDG 7 Environment sustainability• MDG 8 Global Partnership– where SWFDP

addressing special needs of LDCs, developing countries and SIDs

Recognized contributions of SWFDP to the EAC region

• The Heads welcomed the significant contributions of the SWFDP to disaster risk reduction, sustainable development and climate change resilience, as well as to vital socio-economic sectors as agriculture and fisheries.

• Project has enhanced the authority and visibility of NMSs, and built public and government confidence in the accuracy and reliability of forecasts and warnings of severe weather events

• The Heads acknowledged that the SWFDP represents a systematic and practical approach for strengthening capacity for transferring new knowledge and skills to NMSs

Role of EAC Heads of Met. Services

• The EAC Heads of National Meteorological Services participate in meeting of the Regional Subproject Management Team (RSMT) for the Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) in Eastern Africa

• Deliberate on achievements and challenges, and provide direction on its future implementation and possible expansion.

• The outcome of the meeting will inform the EAC five-year Meteorological Development Plan and Investment Strategy.

Selected examples of hazards related to weather extremes in Uganda

On March 2, 2012, a landslide in Bududa (Eastern Uganda) left 300 people dead, loss of property and left thousands homeless.

• However, the DoM had issued a warning which was rather ignored.

Landslides The residents look-on helpless after the occurrence of the landslide.

Rudimentary rescue efforts such as using hand hoes

Army was also involved in rescue effort

Floods Common in Kampala; the capital city of Uganda, western, central and Eastern regions especially during the El-Niño phenomenon.

They damage structures, crops, animals and settlements.

Water borne diseases like cholera, dysentery, and typhoid are also common.

School girl struggle thru floods

Motorists in flooded major street in

Kampala

Residents rendered homeless by flood

waters

LightningLake Victoria basin is reported with the highest average annual frequency of lightning and thunderstorms in the world (Bukoba reports 226 days per year, Kampala 222 days, Entebbe 211days and Kisumu 202 days).

In June, 2011, 22 students and a teacher died after lightning struck their school in the country’s mid-west. In another school, northwest of Kampala – 37 students and two teachers were killed

October, 2012 - Three radio stations also say recent lightning has damaged their transmission equipment

Uganda Pilot project under SWFDP Mobile Weather Alert

LAUNCHING OF THE MOBILE WEATHER ALERT PILOT PROJECT

• Designed initially for fishermen over Lake Victoria and later for farmers in Kasese district.

• To safeguard life and property of the fishing community and other users of Lake Victoria by providing an effective, efficient and tailor made daily weather alert service, for socio-economic development.

Enhancing “End to End” Weather and Climate Services to address challenges of extreme weather

Delivering Severe Weather Warning directly to fishermen

Delivering seasonal forecasts and agricultural advisories directly to farmers

farmers

fishermen

Integrated Observations

Development of weather and

climate products

Communication to end users

Service provider - end users interaction

Utilise mobile phone technology to develop a sustainable warning service that reduces the vulnerability of communities in the Lake Victoria Region to weather hazards.

Users:•Fishermen•Transporters•Tour operators•Lake rescue teams•Police and UPDF marines

Project Objective

Mobile Weather Alert: Community weather information via mobile technology

Severe Weather Warning Service for Fishermen

Sesse Islands（ Severe Weather Warning Service for fishermen）

farmers

fishers

Mobile weather forecasts for farmers in Kasese district – western Uganda

Major crops in Kasese

From Baseline Survey, 2012

farmers

fishers

Community Knowledge Workers (CKWs)

Delivering information to end users

• They themselves are farmers• Network of information intermediaries• Based at the grassroots, these intermediaries use mobile technology to

deliver agricultural information both to and from the smallholder farmers

farmers

fishers

Dissemination

Information delivered:1. Seasonal forecasts2. Monthly update 3. Agricultural advisories

Dissemination via CKWs’ Smart Phones

farmers

fishers

Participatory approach: CKW and farmers trained on weather observation

Farmers (CKWs) asking questions to the observer of the Uganda Department of Meteorology

farmers

fishermen

Farmer’s participation: Observation using plastic rain gauges

farmers

fishermen

Community Knowledge Workers (CKW) Workshop

farmers

fishermen

Integrated Observations

Development of weather and

climate products

Communication to end users

Service provider - end users interaction

Benefits of the Mobile Weather Alert

• Reduction in the frequency of deaths on Lake Victoria.

• Improved capacity amongst pilot communities to respond to warnings of severe weather.

• Increased capacity of UDoM to deliver effective warnings ( due to SWFDP).

• Sustainable increase in observations (Two AWS will be installed on ferries plying routes over Lake Victoria).

• Business model for wide-scale rollout. This is anticipated.

Challenges in implementing

• Sustainability and roll-out of the project across the entire region

• Internet speeds in the region is still low and downloads of guidance products is sometimes difficult.

• Sparse observation network limits the accuracy and reliability of forecasts

• Technical capacity in terms of human resource and computing facilities still inadequate.

Recommendations of EAC Heads of NMSs

• The Project should be sustained and strengthened as it moves from demonstration to operational stage. This calls for support from all partners.

• Additional resources and commitment at regional and national levels to ensure EAC leadership in transforming the Project into an integral part of the forecasting and warning services of NMSs in the region.

• EAC and Partner States marshal NWP experts from the region to initiate development of a Global NWP model

Assistance required• As a region we want to acquire a broadband Internet

connection in order to be able to access adequate real time data for NWP

• To assist Burundi, Rwanda and Uganda NMSs to acquire expertise in running models through exchanging experts with KMD and TMA and acquisition of the required hard and software and through the “cascading forecast process” from RSMC

• Uganda to get Technical Advisor as she transforms into a Meteorological Authority to oversee the operationalisation of the recommendations from a USTDA funded study “ Modernisation of Uganda Meteorological Services” and to assist in financial mobilization .

Thank you for your kind attention