Upload
others
View
5
Download
4
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
IMPORT – EXPORT RELATIONS
AND
BASIC RULES OF
WHEAT TRADE IN TURKEY
February 17, 2018, Dubai / UAE
Middle East Grain Congress-2018
AGENDA
1-TURKISH AGRIFACTS
2 – WHEAT ROLE IN TURKISH AGRICULTURE
3 – TURKISH WHEAT & DERIVATIVES TRADE
4- TMO, TURKISH GRAIN BOARD
5- 2018/2019 SEASON PROSPECTS
6- SUMMARY
1- TURKISH AGRIFACTS
TURKISH AGRIFACTS
Turkish Population ( 2018 ) : 80.8 MlnsAgricultural Employment Rate : 20%Economic Magnitude: 850 Mlrd USDGlobal Rank: 16th
Growth Rate ( 2017 ): 7.5%GDP Per Capita ( 2017 ) : 10.500 USDAgricultural Value : 100 Mlrd USDGlobal ( 3.2 Trillion USD ) Share: 3%Turkish AgriExports : 17 Mlrd USD ( 11% of Turkish total )Turkish AgriImports : 17 Mlrd USD ( 8% of Turkish total )
2- WHEAT ROLE IN TURKISH
AGRICULTURE
TURKEY HAS AROUND
78 MLN HA OF ACREAGE
INCLUDING
24 MLN HA OF ARABLE AGRICULTURAL LAND
( APPROX 30% SHARE )
APPROX. 11.5 MLN HAOF TURKISH ARABLE
AGRICULTURAL ACREAGE TOTAL ( 24 MLN HA )
BELONGS TO THE CEREALS COMPRISING
- 7.7 MLN HA OF WHEAT- 2.75 MLN HA OF BARLEY- 0.7 MLN HA OF CORN- 0.35 MLN HA OF OTHERS ( PADDY RICE, RYE, OATS, TRITICALE ETC ).
IN 2017/18 SEASON;
TURKEY RAISED AROUND 36.5 MLN T OF CEREALS COMPRISING
- WHEAT, 21.0 MLN T ( 16/17, 18 ),- BARLEY, 6.5 MLN T ( 16/17, 5.0 ),- CORN, 6.0 MLN T ( 16/17, 6.4 ),- OAT, 250 KMT ( 16/17, 200 ),- RYE, 325 KMT ( 16/17, 300 ).
IN 2017/18 SEASON;
21.0 MLN T ( 2016/17, 18 ) OF TURKISH WHEAT OUTPUT HAS BEEN COMPRISING
4.15 MLN T ( 16/17, 3.6 ) OF DURUM
16.85 MLN T ( 16/17, 14.4 ) OF OTHERS ( MAINLY MILLING )
IN 2017/18 SEASON;
WITH 21.0 MLN T ( 2016/17, 18 ) OF WHEAT ( ALL SPECIES ) OUTPUT
TURKEY HAS
10TH RANK ( EU LEADERSHIP )
IN GLOBAL OUTPUT ( 757.5 MLN T )
HOWEVER, IN 2017/18 SEASON;
WITH 4.15 MLN T ( 2016/17, 3.6 ) OF DURUM WHEAT OUTPUT
TURKEY HAS
3RD RANK ( AFTER CANADA AND ITALY )
IN GLOBAL OUTPUT ( 36.5 MLN T )
3- TURKISH WHEAT & DERIVATIVES TRADE
TURKISH WHEAT OUTPUT OF 21.0 MLN T IN 2017/18 SEASON WILL BE CONSUMED AS
- FOOD ( FOR WHEAT FLOUR, PASTA/MACARONI, BULGUR/CRACKED
WHEAT, SEMOLINA, BISCUIT, STARCH ETC ) OF 17 MLN T,
- SEED OF 1.7 MLN T,
- FEED OF 1.3 MLN T,
- OTHERS ( LOSSES ETC ) OF 1.0 MLN T.
TURKISH WHEAT FLOUR OUTPUT
IS AROUND 17.5 MLN T
LOCAL TURKISH WHEAT FLOUR OUTPUT
CAPACITY IS OVER 30 –35 MLN T WITH MORE
THAN 700 SMALL, MEDIUM AND LARGE-
SCALE MILLERS.
WITH OVER 80 MLN OF LOCAL POPULATION, PLUS REFUGEES AND TOURISTS, TURKISH
WHEAT FLOUR CONSUMPTION IS
AROUND 14 MLN T.
THE BALANCE OF 3.5 MLN T OF WHEAT FLOUR
HAS BEEN EXPORTED AND SO TURKEY IS
THE BIGGEST GLOBAL EXPORTER.
TURKEY APROX. PERFORMS 1/3 OF
GLOBAL WHEAT FLOUR TRADE WITH MAIN
DESTINATIONS OF IRAQ, SYRIA, SUDAN, ANGOLA,
PHILIPPINES AND MADAGASCAR.
TURKISH PASTA/MACARONI
OUTPUT IS AROUND
1.75 MLN T
LOCAL TURKISH PASTA OUTPUT CAPACITY IS
AROUND 2.0 MLN T WITH NEARLY 25
FACTORIES.
TURKISH PASTA/MACARONI CONSUMPTION IS
AROUND 750 THD T.
THE BALANCE OF 1.0 MLN T OF
PASTA/MACARONIHAS BEEN EXPORTED AND
SO TURKEY IS THE SECOND BIGGEST GLOBAL EXPORTER FOLLOWING ITALY.
THE MAIN DESTINATIONS OF
TURKISH PASTA/MACARONI
EXPORTS ARE ANGOLA, BENIN,
SOMALI AND TOGO.
EXCEPT UNFAVORABLE WEATHER-SUFFERED
SEASONS,
TURKEY IS ALMOST SELF-SUFFICIENT COUNTRY
FOR WHEAT.
HOWEVER, TURKISH GOVERNMENT PROTECTS LOCAL
FARMERS WITH IMPORT-DUTY ( 45% NOW ) AGAINST CHEAPER
IMPORTS. AND SO, TO BE COMPETITIVE AT EXPORT
MARKETS, THE GOVERNMENT GRANTS LOCAL FACTORIES DUTY-FREE IMPORTS UNDER
INWARD PROCESSING REGIME.
AT THIS POINT;
IN 2017 CALENDAR YEAR,
TURKEY IMPORTED
4.57 MLN T ( 2016, 3.47 ) OF WHEAT.
THE MAIN ORIGINS OF TURKISH WHEAT IMPORTS WERE
- 2.85 MLN T OF RUSSIA,- 570 THD T OF LITHUANIA,- 435 THD T OF UKRAINE AND- 161 THD T OF LATVIA.
4- TMO, TURKISH GRAIN BOARD
http://www.tmo.gov.tr
TMO, TURKISH GRAIN BOARD, ESTABLISHED
IN 1938, WAS THE MAIN STATE
STRUCTURE IN GRAIN MARKETS,
INCLUDING WHEAT.
THE MAIN MISSIONS OF TMO ARE
- TO TAKE PROTECTIVE MEASURES FOR PRODUCERS AND CONSUMERS
BY REGULATING AGRICULTURAL MARKETS, ESPECIALLY GRAIN
MARKETS,
- TO KEEP STOCKS FOR THE STATE OF EMERGENCY.
TMO HAS BEEN ANNOUNCING
PURCHASING AND INTERVENTION PRICES FOR FARMERS, SELLING
THE STOCKS FOR THE LOCAL FACTORIES.
IN SOME SEASONS, IF NEEDED, THE
GOVERNMENT ALSO APPOINTS THE RELEVANT STRUCTURE TO PERFORM THE IMPORTS AND/OR
EXPORTS UNDER INTERNATIONAL TENDERS.
5- 2018/2019 SEASON PROSPECTS
DUE TO DRIER FALL 17, THE PLANTINGS COULD
NOT BE DONE IN DUE TIME AND AS INTENTED IN
ANATOLIA ( ASIAN PART OF TURKEY ) MOSTLY, SO
SOME ACREAGE CUTS WERE UNFO EXPERIENCED.
IN ADDITION, RAINS AND ESPECIALLY SNOWS ARE LESS THAN EARLIER YEARS SO FAR.
INDEED, IT’S EARLY TO SPEAK, BUT IF CURRENT PARTLY
UNFAVORABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE KEPT TILL THE
HARVESTINGS AND DURING HARVESTINGS ( LATE MAY-JUNE-
EARLY JULY ), FURTHER LOSSES ARE POSSIBLE.
TENTATIVELY, TURKISH WHEAT NEW-CROP SIZE MAY BE AT
17 – 19 MLN T RANGE, IE 2 – 4 MLN T
LESS THAN CURRENT YEAR’s 21 MLN T.
BY ASSUMING STILL HIGH PACE OF WHEAT FLOUR AND
PASTA/MACARONI EXPORTS FOR 2018/19 SEASON, TURKEY MAY NEED HUGE WHEAT IMPORTS UNDER DUTY-FREE INWARD PROCESSING REGIME. TMO MAY ALSO ANNOUNCE DUTY-
FREE INTERNATIONAL IMPORT TENDERS TO CURB LOCALLY HIGHER PRICES. CURRENT 45% OF IMPORT-DUTY MAY BE ALSO LESSENED EVEN
ZEROIZED.
6- SUMMARY
• TURKEY IS AMIDS THE MAIN PLAYERS IN GLOBAL WHEAT OUTPUT ANDTRADE.
• TURKEY IS THE LEADER GLOBAL WHEAT FLOUR EXPORTER ( TO MORETHAN 120 COUNTRIES ) BY PERFORMING 1/3 OF GLOBAL WHEAT FLOURTRADE.
• TURKEY IS THE SECOND BIGGEST PASTA/MACARONI EXPORTER ( TO MORETHAN 150 COUNTRIES ) AFTER ITALY.
• NORMALLY, TURKEY IS SELF-SUFFICIENT IN WHEAT, BUT TO BE COMPETITVEIN WHEAT FLOUR AND PASTA EXPORTS, GOVERNTMENT GRANTS DUTY-FREE ( NORMALLY, 45% ) IMPORTS UNDER INWARD PROCESSING REGIME.
• TMO, TURKISH GRAIN BOARD, IS THE PUBLIC STRUCTURE TO REGULATETHE LOCAL MARKETS AND KEEP THE STOCKS FOR THE STATE OFEMERGENCY.
• WEATHER CONDITIONS SO FAR ARE NOT FAVORABLE IN ANATOLIA, ASIANPART OF TURKEY, MOSTLY AND SO TUR NEW-CROP SIZE MAY BE 2 – 4 MLN TLESS THAN CURRENT 21 MLN T.
• IF SO, BY KEEPING STILL HIGH PACE OF WHEAT FLOUR AND PASTAEXPORTS, TURKEY MAY NEED MORE WHEAT IMPORTS. TMO MAY ALSOANNOUNCE INTERNATIONAL DUTY-FREE IMPORT TENDERS.
Great thanks for your kind attention…
Teşekkürler…
Большое спасибо…
شكرا
THE EXPERT SUPPORT ON REPORTING, ANALYSES, CONSULTING AND BROKERAGE AS PER OVER 20-YEAR SECTOR
EXPERIENCE ( SINCE 24 DECEMBER 1998 )
VEYSEL KAYAhttp://www.sunseedman.com
[email protected] : SUNSEEDMAN
GSM : 00 90 542 273 50 63Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/SUNSEEDMAN
Linkedin: http://www.linkedin.com/in/SUNSEEDMAN
Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/SUNSEEDMAN