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The uncertainty in predicting flash floods in the Mediterranean Storms: the role of an observational network Franco Siccardi Interuniversity Research Center on Environmental Monitoring of the Universities of Genova and Basilicata - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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The uncertainty in predicting flash floods in the Mediterranean Storms: the role of an observational
network
Franco SiccardiInteruniversity Research Center on Environmental Monitoring of the Universities of Genova and
Basilicata
and Environmental Engineering Department of the University of Genova
In August was the Jackal bornIn August was the Jackal born
The rains fell in SeptemberThe rains fell in September
Now such a fearful flood as Now such a fearful flood as thisthis
Says he, I can’t remember.Says he, I can’t remember.
R.Kipling, Second Jungle R.Kipling, Second Jungle Book, 1907Book, 1907
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2004?
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time and space scales
22/09/1992 - 10.45
22/09/1992 - 15.30
22/09/1992 - 15.40 22/09/1992 - 15.45
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time and space scales
La Barbera, P.; Lanza, L. G. 2001 On the cumulative area distribution of natural drainage basins along a coastal boundaryWater Resour. Res. Vol. 37 , No. 5 , p. 1503
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uncertainty at the
meteo scale
interface
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DETERMINISTIC Single Site
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1-ot
t-96
3-ot
t-96
5-ot
t-96
7-ot
t-96
9-ot
t-96
11-o
tt-96
13-o
tt-96
15-o
tt-96
17-o
tt-96
19-o
tt-96
21-o
tt-96
23-o
tt-96
25-o
tt-96
27-o
tt-96
29-o
tt-96
31-o
tt-96
2-no
v-96
Q (m
^3/s)
Forecasted Hydrograph
Cumulative Distribution Function of peaks discharge in Tanaro at Belbo for 5 LAM-TEPS
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
Discharge [m3s-1]
Observed from rainguages
Estimated from the LAM-TEPS 1
P[Q
>q* ]
.5
.2
.1
.05
.01
.005
.3
.4
PROBABILISTIC
Downscaling
CDF of peak flow
GCM LAMEPS LEPS
DHM
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multicatchment distributed warning
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Exc
eed
ence
Pro
bab
ilit
y
Q QQQQQQQQQ
Single site
Regional
Regional (indepedent
basins)
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PROBABILISTIC Multi-catcment approach
Downscaling
EPS LEPS
DHM
Exceedence probability
curves
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