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India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 February, 2014

India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 · 2016. 3. 23. · India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 February, 2014 . DSP BlackRock is BlackRock ... S

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Page 1: India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 · 2016. 3. 23. · India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 February, 2014 . DSP BlackRock is BlackRock ... S

India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 February, 2014

Page 2: India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 · 2016. 3. 23. · India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 February, 2014 . DSP BlackRock is BlackRock ... S

DSP BlackRock is BlackRock’s joint venture presence in India }  Established in April 1997 and now one of India’s leading investment management

companies managing/advising total assets of US$ 6.5861 bn as of December 31, 2013

}  Ownership: 60% by DSP Group & 40% by BlackRock Inc.

}  Also provides advisory services to offshore funds of BlackRock and eminent institutional investors (including sovereign wealth funds and pension funds)

}  Registered as a manager for proposed Alternative Investment Fund & Pension Fund (National Pension System)

About DSP Group }  Kothari family of D. S. Purbhoodas and Co. is the promoter and owner of DSP Group

}  Track record of over 145 years, one of the oldest financial services firms in India

}  One of the founding members and first directors of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE)

}  Each generation of the DSP Group has seen a partner serving as President of the Bombay Stock Exchange, bearing testimony to the long-standing position that the DSP Group occupies in the Indian financial arena

}  Hemendra Kothari, Non-executive Chairman of DSP BlackRock Investment Managers, has an experience of over 40 years in the financial services industry, and also served the Bombay Stock Exchange as President in 1991-92

Overview: DSP BlackRock Investment Managers

2

1 Includes domestic Equity and Hybrid schemes and offshore advisory mandates. For complete details of the latest AUM in SEBI prescribed format please visit our website: www.dspblackrock.com | 2 USD/INR Conversion Rate (Source: RBI Ref. rate as of 31 December-13): 61.8970

USD Million

Domestic Assets – Fixed Income 3,536.4

Domestic Assets – Equity 1621.3

Total (Domestic Assets) 5,157.4

Total (Offshore Advisory Assets) 1,428.6

Total Assets 6,586.0

Total Equity Assets 2,954

Equity Assets as % of Total Assets 45%

Domestic - Fixed

Income 55%

Domestic - Equity 24%

Advisory - Equity 19%

Advisory - Fixed

Income 2%

FOR PROFESSIONAL INTERMEDIARIES ONLY

Page 3: India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 · 2016. 3. 23. · India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 February, 2014 . DSP BlackRock is BlackRock ... S

Equities Investment Team

Mayur Patel (6) Oil & Gas,

Petrochemicals

Rohit Singhania (13) Auto & Auto Ancillaries, Metals, Infrastructure,

Hotel, Sugar

Vinit Sambre (14) Pharma, Power Utilities, Textiles,

Chemicals, Fertilizers

Chief Investment Officer S Naganath (26)

Macro Research & Investment Strategy

Mehul Jani (9) Banking & Financials,

Engineering, Derivatives

Portfolio Managers/Research Analysts

Macro View

Value / Growth

perspectives

In-depth research

Wider BlackRock

Highly experienced, rigorous approach, global reach

Interaction with BlackRock PMs/Analysts Risk & Quantitative Analysis professionals

Years in brackets ( ) is years of investment or investment-related experience

Product Strategist

Senior Portfolio Managers

3

Harrish Zaveri (20) FMCG, Retail, Media, Real Estate, Cement,

Construction, Technology, Telecom

Anup Maheshwari (20) Head - Equities & Corporate Strategy

Apoorva Shah (22) Senior Portfolio

Manager

Jay Kothari (9) Product Strategist

FOR PROFESSIONAL INTERMEDIARIES ONLY

Page 4: India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 · 2016. 3. 23. · India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 February, 2014 . DSP BlackRock is BlackRock ... S

Factors Affecting Indian Markets

Global factors: 2013 2014

1.  QE tapering

2.  Geo-political tensions

3.  Crude oil prices

4.  Global GDP Slowdown

Domestic factors:

1.  Inflation

2.  Interest rates

3.  CAD and FD

4.  Currency

5.  Politics/Policy

4

Neutral

Neutral

Neutral

Positive

Positive

Positive

Positive

Neutral

Neutral

Negative

Negative

Negative

Negative

Negative

Negative

Negative

Negative

Negative

FOR PROFESSIONAL INTERMEDIARIES ONLY

Page 5: India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 · 2016. 3. 23. · India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 February, 2014 . DSP BlackRock is BlackRock ... S

GDP Decomposition: India

Source: Spark Capital

Note: All of the above are real growth rates

}  For India’s GDP growth recovery, investment has to pick up. Investment is expected to rebound ahead on account of replacement capex, government focus on clearing projects and reforms in FDI

}  Private consumption growth has slowed down due to high inflation and subdued growth in disposable income of the households.

GDP Agri Industry Services

Contribution to GDP (FY13) 100% 13.7% 26.7% 59.6%

Average FY03 – 11 Growth 8.0% 3.0% 8.7% 9.4%

FY12 Growth 6.2% 3.6% 3.5% 8.2%

FY13 Growth 5.0% 1.9% 2.1% 7.1%

FOR PROFESSIONAL INTERMEDIARIES ONLY 5

Supply Side GDP Agriculture + Industry + Services

Page 6: India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 · 2016. 3. 23. · India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 February, 2014 . DSP BlackRock is BlackRock ... S

Themes driving India story

FOR PROFESSIONAL INTERMEDIARIES ONLY 6

Theme Factors impacting the theme Sectors expected to benefit

Consumption

}  India expected to witness one of the highest growth in urbanization amongst key emerging economies

}  Emergence of “The Thorties” – India has one of the youngest population

}  Worker dependent ratio expected to improve over the next three decades

}  Several variables like loan/GDP ratio, mutual fund AUM/GDP ratio, Mortgages/GDP ratio are much lower when compared with developed markets as well as many of emerging markets – indicating huge potential for growth

}  Financial Services

}  Automobiles

}  Media

}  Consumer Goods

Infrastructure

}  Investment in infrastructure to double in XII Plan

}  Deficiencies across various key parameters like power generation capacity, road network, port capacity, airport capacity – this creates significant investment opportunity

}  Rise in nuclear families expected to boost demand for new houses

}  Construction & Engineering

}  Metals

}  Cement

}  Power

Outsourcing

}  Low cost advantage

}  Highly skilled human resources

}  High quality communication infrastructure

}  Information Technology

}  Pharmaceuticals

Page 7: India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 · 2016. 3. 23. · India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 February, 2014 . DSP BlackRock is BlackRock ... S

Financial Services: Penetration Remains Low

Loan/GDP

Mutual Fund AUM/GDP Mortgages/GDP

Source: 1) Industry, IIFL Research 2) RBI, IIFL Research 3) Industry, IIFL Research 4) HDFC, IIFL Research.

7

5.3 6.2 12.4

23.7

49.7

80.3

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

China India Japan Korea Malaysia USA

8% 15% 20% 32% 36% 40% 44% 45%

54%

76% 84%

101%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Indi

a

Chi

na

Thai

land

Mal

ayas

ia

Kor

ea

Taiw

an

Hon

gkon

g

Ger

man

y

Sin

gapo

re

US

A UK

Den

mar

k

43 77

100

155 169 170 201 207

229.3

346.2

0 50

100 150 200 250 300 350 400

Indo

nesi

a

Indi

a

Sin

gapo

re

Chi

na

Kor

ea

Thai

land

HK

UK

US

Japa

n

-2 2 6

Population Bank accounts MF accounts Demat accounts (millions)

1,237 703 48 20

Large part of the population remains unbanked

FOR PROFESSIONAL INTERMEDIARIES ONLY

Page 8: India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 · 2016. 3. 23. · India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 February, 2014 . DSP BlackRock is BlackRock ... S

Favorable demographics

80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80

0-4 5-9

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100+ Male Female

80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80

0-4 5-9

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100+ Male Female

Source: CLSA Research

The baby boomer period is just getting underway

India population distribution by age (mn) China population distribution by age (mn)

8 FOR PROFESSIONAL INTERMEDIARIES ONLY

Page 9: India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 · 2016. 3. 23. · India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 February, 2014 . DSP BlackRock is BlackRock ... S

9

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

FY96

FY97

FY98

FY99

FY00

FY01

FY02

FY03

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

$ bn

$bn

Projects stalled New Projects Announced (RHS)

Infrastructure Bottlenecks

Source: Citi

FOR PROFESSIONAL INTERMEDIARIES ONLY

Page 10: India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 · 2016. 3. 23. · India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 February, 2014 . DSP BlackRock is BlackRock ... S

Fiscal Deficit is Under Control

Fiscal Deficit

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

FY00 FY02 FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16

Return to fiscal prudence

% of GDP Fiscal stimulus post the crisis Fiscal prudence

}  India has always had a high fiscal deficit, but the deficit ballooned post 2008 due to consumption-oriented government spending and lower revenues due to slow growth.

}  However, the government has returned back to the path of fiscal prudence starting Sep 2012 by cutting back on spending and hiking diesel prices. Fiscal deficit in FY13 at 4.9% of GDP was better than budgeted (5.1%).

}  In FY14, rationalizing of spending, austerity measures and increased tax compliance is likely to help keep the fiscal deficit in check at 4.8% of GDP.

}  The government is committed to lowering the fiscal deficit to 3% of GDP by FY17. Structural reforms such as the Goods and Services Tax and the Direct Cash transfer will help bring down the fiscal deficit in the medium term.

}  Hence, risks from the fiscal deficit – a pre-dominant concern over the last 5 years - have receded.

10 FOR PROFESSIONAL INTERMEDIARIES ONLY

Source: Nomura

Page 11: India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 · 2016. 3. 23. · India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 February, 2014 . DSP BlackRock is BlackRock ... S

•  Source: CEIC and Nomura Global Economics estimates.

Current Account Deficit: Worst is Behind Us

11

}  INR deprecation - a medium term positive

Along with a fiscal deficit, India has also historically had a current account deficit. INR deprecation along with weak domestic demand has helped narrow the current account deficit. A weak INR/USD should boost export competitiveness and lead to import substitution thus reducing the trade deficit (J-curve effect).

}  Lower gold import bill

Controls on Gold imports should reduce the gold import bill significantly. Gold accounts for around 9% of India’s total imports

}  Financing concerns have also eased

RBI has been able to gather more than USD18bn through the swap window for FCNR(B) and Tier-I Banking Capital window

Further FII equity has seen strong inflows since September (~USD 5.7bn Sep 2013-till date)

}  Structural reforms an added positive

Government’s decision to gradually deregulate diesel prices should help rationalize domestic energy demand and thus reduce oil imports.

Therefore, we expect the current account deficit to moderate from 4.8% of GDP in FY13 to 2.5% in FY14 and stabilize around 3.0% by FY15.

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

% of GDP Current account balance

FOR PROFESSIONAL INTERMEDIARIES ONLY

Source: Nomura

Page 12: India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 · 2016. 3. 23. · India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 February, 2014 . DSP BlackRock is BlackRock ... S

Growth in large part is funded by saving

12

109 112 134 179234 279 328

456392

460544 585

668769

884

1018

1171

1346

1548

1780

FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

Cumulative saving:

US$2.7trillion

Source: Motilal Oswal

At 40% of GDP, decadal saving would exceed $10t till 2020

FOR PROFESSIONAL INTERMEDIARIES ONLY

Page 13: India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 · 2016. 3. 23. · India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 February, 2014 . DSP BlackRock is BlackRock ... S

Key Catalysts Going Forward

Page 14: India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 · 2016. 3. 23. · India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 February, 2014 . DSP BlackRock is BlackRock ... S

India Inflation Trend

Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research.

India Inflation Remains High… Expected to Decelerate as Food Prices Soften

14  FOR PROFESSIONAL INTERMEDIARIES ONLY

-2%

3%

8%

13%

18%

Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13

Headline CPI (IW) Headline WPI Food Inflation

YoY%

9.9%

6.2%

9.0%

CPI and WPI Decelerated sharply in December mainly on account of falling food inflation

Page 15: India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 · 2016. 3. 23. · India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 February, 2014 . DSP BlackRock is BlackRock ... S

India Inflation Trend

Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research.

India Inflation Remains High… Expected to Decelerate as Food Prices Soften

15  FOR PROFESSIONAL INTERMEDIARIES ONLY

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13

Headline WPI

Headline CPI - new index

YoY%

7.5%

11.2%

December WPI: 6.2%

December CPI: 9.9%

Page 16: India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 · 2016. 3. 23. · India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 February, 2014 . DSP BlackRock is BlackRock ... S

Source: GDP figures are Q3 CY 2013 numbers. CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research. For India policy rate is taken as Marginal Standing Facility Rate (MSF), as caps on liquidity available at repo rate have led to inter bank call rate to trade near MSF rate

AXJ Comparison - Policy Rates vs. Real GDP

FOR PROFESSIONAL INTERMEDIARIES ONLY

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

China Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Singapore Taiwan Thailand

Real GDP YoY% Policy Rates

India has room to cut interest rates to jump start the economy should inflation ease

16

Page 17: India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 · 2016. 3. 23. · India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 February, 2014 . DSP BlackRock is BlackRock ... S

EPS CAGR

17

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

Mexico Brazil India South Africa Turkey Indonesia China Russia

EPS CAGR of around 15% between 2013 to 2016 (%)

Source: Bloomberg estimates. All data is based on MSCI Index of relevant country

}  Corporate earnings have grown by an average rate of 7% for the past 5 years

}  This is well below the long term earnings growth of 15%

FOR PROFESSIONAL INTERMEDIARIES ONLY

Page 18: India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 · 2016. 3. 23. · India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 February, 2014 . DSP BlackRock is BlackRock ... S

Sensex 20 Year EPS CAGR: 15%

18 FOR PROFESSIONAL INTERMEDIARIES ONLY

Source: MOSL. Internal.

81 129 181 250 266 291 278 280 216 236 272

348 450 523

718 833 820 834

1,024 1,123 1,184

1,317

1,518

1,766

FY93

FY94

FY95

FY96

FY97

FY98

FY99

FY00

FY01

FY02

FY03

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

E

FY15

E

FY16

E

FY93-96: 45% CAGR

FY96-03: 1% CAGR

FY03-08: 25% CAGR

FY08-14: 8% CAGR

FY14-16E: 16% CAGR

FY93-FY13: 14% CAGR

Page 19: India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 · 2016. 3. 23. · India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 February, 2014 . DSP BlackRock is BlackRock ... S

P/E: Valuations Below Historical Averages

19

Current Premium: 22%

-25%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

200%

Premium/Discount to MSCI EM

Average Premium of 43%

Low Premium: 0% in March 2009

Source: MSCI EM Source is Bloomberg.

High Premium: March 2006

}  India usually trades at a premium valuations to other EM countries

}  Currently, the P/E is trading below the average premium levels

FOR PROFESSIONAL INTERMEDIARIES ONLY

Page 20: India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 · 2016. 3. 23. · India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 February, 2014 . DSP BlackRock is BlackRock ... S

Valuation Snapshot

Sensex 1 Year Forward P/E

Source: MOSL; as on December, 2013

20 FOR PROFESSIONAL INTERMEDIARIES ONLY

14.4

24.6

15.0

8.3

7

12

17

22

27

Dec

-98

Dec

-99

Dec

-00

Dec

-01

Dec

-02

Dec

-03

Dec

-04

Dec

-05

Dec

-06

Dec

-07

Dec

-08

Dec

-09

Dec

-10

Dec

-11

Dec

-12

Dec

-13

Sensex P/E (x) Peak(x) Avg(x) Min(x)

Page 21: India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 · 2016. 3. 23. · India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 February, 2014 . DSP BlackRock is BlackRock ... S

21

Gap Between RoE and Interest Rates Near 10 Year Low

Source: MOSL Research

20.4  21.3  

23.4   24.2   24.0  22.8  

19.0  

15.3  16.9   17.1   16.6  

FY03   FY04   FY05   FY06   FY07   FY08   FY09   FY10   FY11   FY12   FY13  

Sensex  ROE  (%)  

13.5  

15.9  17.2   17.1  

16.2  14.9  

11.3  

8.0  9.0   8.7   8.4  

6.9  

5.4  

6.2  7.1  

7.8  7.9  

7.6  7.2  

7.9  8.4   8.2  

FY03   FY04   FY05   FY06   FY07   FY08   FY09   FY10   FY11   FY12   FY13  

Difference  RoE  -­‐  G-­‐Sec   10  Year  G-­‐Sec  (%)  Average  -­‐  RHS  

FOR PROFESSIONAL INTERMEDIARIES ONLY

Page 22: India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 · 2016. 3. 23. · India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 February, 2014 . DSP BlackRock is BlackRock ... S

22

Market returns Vs. Starting P/E

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

<10x 10-12 12-14 14-16 16-19 19-22 >22

Avg. 1 yr return

Median 1 yr return Current PE is 13.9x

% 1 yr return

Sensex PE at start of period

Historical analysis suggest that investing at current levels has generally yielded double digit returns in the equity market

P/E – Price/Earnings; Source: CLSA, data since 1992 for BSE Sensex Index

FOR PROFESSIONAL INTERMEDIARIES ONLY

Page 23: India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 · 2016. 3. 23. · India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 February, 2014 . DSP BlackRock is BlackRock ... S

Election / Parliament Session Calendar

23

Year State Elections Scheduled

Mar-May 2014 Budget Session

May-14 Andhra Pradesh

May-14 Orissa

May-14 Sikkim

May-14 General Elections

FOR PROFESSIONAL INTERMEDIARIES ONLY

Key event in 2014

Page 24: India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 · 2016. 3. 23. · India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 February, 2014 . DSP BlackRock is BlackRock ... S

INR REER - Oversold

24

Source: RBI, CEIC, IMF, Morgan Stanley Research. Data As on Jan 2014

FOR PROFESSIONAL INTERMEDIARIES ONLY

95

100

105

110

115

120

Jan-

01

Nov

-01

Sep-

02

Jul-0

3

May

-04

Mar

-05

Jan-

06

Nov

-06

Sep-

07

Jul-0

8

May

-09

Mar

-10

Jan-

11

Nov

-11

Sep-

12

Jul-1

3

MS REER on CPI (30 country)

10 Year Average

Index Jan 2001=100

Mean + St Dev

Mean - St Dev

Page 25: India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 · 2016. 3. 23. · India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 February, 2014 . DSP BlackRock is BlackRock ... S

INR has outperformed other EM currencies Since Sep-13

Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research

Trend In EM Currencies

FOR PROFESSIONAL INTERMEDIARIES ONLY

- 18.7%

- 16.0% - 15.8%

- 10.8%

- 8.3%

-20% -18% -16% -14% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0%

Indian Rupee Indo Rupiah Brazilian Real Turkish Lira S. African Rand

Currency Performance Between May 22 to Low Point in Aug / Sep

Negative shows depreciation

- 4.9% - 4.5% - 2.2%

2.4%

9.7%

-6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

10% 12%

Indo Rupiah Turkish Lira S. African Rand Brazilian Real Indian Rupee

Currency Performance From Low Point in Aug / Sep to Present

Positive shows appreciation

25

Page 26: India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 · 2016. 3. 23. · India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 February, 2014 . DSP BlackRock is BlackRock ... S

EM & India

Page 27: India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 · 2016. 3. 23. · India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 February, 2014 . DSP BlackRock is BlackRock ... S

MSCI EM Composition

27

DESC Country index weight

GDP (USD % billion) % of EM GDP

CHINA 19.5% 8,939 39% KOREA 15.8% 1,198 5% TAIWAN 11.7% 485 2% BRAZIL 10.5% 2,190 10%

SOUTH AFRICA 7.3% 354 2% INDIA 6.5% 1,758 8%

RUSSIA 6.0% 2,118 9% MEXICO 5.5% 1,327 6%

MALAYSIA 3.9% 312 1% INDONESIA 2.4% 867 4% THAILAND 2.2% 401 2% POLAND 1.7% 514 2%

CHILE 1.6% 282 1% TURKEY 1.5% 822 4%

COLOMBIA 1.0% 369 2% PHILIPPINES 0.9% 272 1%

GREECE 0.5% NA NA PERU 0.4% 210 1%

HUNGARY 0.3% 131 1% CZECH REPUBLIC 0.2% 199 1%

EGYPT 0.2% 262 1%

Source: Morgan Stanley. GDP is IMF 2013e

India ranks 6th on the basis of weight within MSCI EM Index, while it ranks 4th on the basis of GDP

India has a 6.5% weight on the basis of Market Cap (within MSCI EM Index) compared to its GDP contribution of 8.0%

FOR PROFESSIONAL INTERMEDIARIES ONLY

Page 28: India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 · 2016. 3. 23. · India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 February, 2014 . DSP BlackRock is BlackRock ... S

MSCI India – Well Diversified vs. Other EMs

28

EM India China Brazil Korea Taiwan South Africa Russia

Energy 11.1% 12.0% 13.6% 14.4% - 0.7% 10.5% 55.3%

Materials 9.6% 6.3% 3.1% 17.6% 9.5% 12.1% 10.8% 7.9%

Industrials 6.5% 4.2% 6.6% 4.8% 11.7% 3.3% 3.9% -

Cons disc 8.9% 6.4% 5.3% 4.9% 17.6% 4.9% 23.5% -

Consumer staples 8.6% 10.8% 6.1% 17.3% 4.9% 2.8% 5.4% 6.9%

Healthcare 1.7% 7.0% 1.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.1% 6.1% 19.4%

Financials 26.7% 23.1% 37.9% 29.1% 14.0% 18.3% 26.1% 9.2%

Info tech 16.2% 24.3% 11.6% 3.1% 36.7% 52.8% - -

Telecoms 7.4% 2.5% 10.4% 3.1% 0.9% 4.9% 13.9% 1.2%

Utilities 3.4% 3.6% 3.8% 5.0% 1.8% - - -

1.  India has a very well diversified index in terms of sector concentration.

2.  India has a better domestic and global sector balance with about equal weight between the two.

3.  The large domestic economy lowers India’s risk in the event of any global crisis.

Source: Morgan Stanley

FOR PROFESSIONAL INTERMEDIARIES ONLY

Page 29: India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 · 2016. 3. 23. · India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 February, 2014 . DSP BlackRock is BlackRock ... S

1993-2008 – India Outperformed Significantly

29

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1993 1997 2001 2005

MSCI India MSCI EM MSCI World

CAGR % (USD) MSCI India MSCI EM MSCI World

1993-2008 +13.5% 9.6% 8.2%

FOR PROFESSIONAL INTERMEDIARIES ONLY

Source: Credit Suisse

Page 30: India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 · 2016. 3. 23. · India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 February, 2014 . DSP BlackRock is BlackRock ... S

2008-2013 – India Underperformed

30

20

40

60

80

100

120

2008 2012

MSCI India MSCI EM MSCI World

}  Currency depreciation has been a key driver of underperformance

}  Domestic factors like slower policy decision making, inflation, CAD and FD are other important factors which impacted growth and

market performance

CAGR % (USD) MSCI India MSCI EM MSCI World

2008-2013 -8.0% -3.6% +0.2%

FOR PROFESSIONAL INTERMEDIARIES ONLY

Source: Credit Suisse

Page 31: India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 · 2016. 3. 23. · India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 February, 2014 . DSP BlackRock is BlackRock ... S

Rising US Bond Yields Have Historically Been Positive for EM/India

31

- 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000 M

ay-9

2

May

-93

May

-94

May

-95

May

-96

May

-97

May

-98

May

-99

May

-00

May

-01

May

-02

May

-03

May

-04

May

-05

May

-06

May

-07

May

-08

May

-09

May

-10

May

-11

May

-12

May

-13

US

yields (%) S

ense

x

Sensex US 10 yr yields

}  Periods of rising US bond yields have historically been the periods of best returns for India and other EM equities

}  Rising yields indicate a global economy returning to normalcy which should augur well for EM and Indian growth too

}  This should also lead to increased risk appetite for investors leading to reallocation of money from the 'safety' trade of the past few years

Source: Ambit Capital. Average returns for Sensex, S&P500 and MSCI EM in the grey regions (of rising US Bond yields) versus average returns in all periods since 92 on a quarterly basis. While the Sensex has delivered 3.1% on average per quarter in all periods since '92, it has delivered 8.6% average per quarter in these grey regions. Similarly EMs have delivered 2.3% on average per quarter in all periods since '92, while they have delivered 7.7% average per quarter in these grey regions.

FOR PROFESSIONAL INTERMEDIARIES ONLY

Page 32: India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 · 2016. 3. 23. · India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 February, 2014 . DSP BlackRock is BlackRock ... S

Risks

Page 33: India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 · 2016. 3. 23. · India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 February, 2014 . DSP BlackRock is BlackRock ... S

Risks

}  Inflation – Despite recent moderation, CPI and WPI are at elevated levels

}  Political risk and election outcome

}  Oil prices: India imports ~85% of its oil requirement yearly

}  Twin Deficits: Fiscal Deficit and Current Account Deficit (CAD) - though there has been some improvement recently

}  Rupee Depreciation

}  Global macro/pace of taper

33 FOR PROFESSIONAL INTERMEDIARIES ONLY

Page 34: India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 · 2016. 3. 23. · India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 February, 2014 . DSP BlackRock is BlackRock ... S

Summary

34

}  GDP growth will hit a trough in the December 2013 or March 2014 quarter

}  This will coincide with the national elections scheduled in May, which we believe will play a pivotal role in the trajectory of growth over the medium term

}  We expect earnings growth to pick up after 5 years of sub-par growth and average 15% for the next couple of years

}  The mix of the market is shifting towards “value” and we believe that the differential between the top quintile and the bottom quintile stocks will converge after almost 5 years of divergence

FOR PROFESSIONAL INTERMEDIARIES ONLY

Page 35: India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 · 2016. 3. 23. · India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 February, 2014 . DSP BlackRock is BlackRock ... S

Disclaimer

•  BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Registered office: 12 Throgmorton Avenue, London, EC2N 2DL. Registered in England No. 2020394. Tel: 020 7743 3000. Tel: 020 7743 3000. For your protection, telephone calls are usually recorded. BlackRock is a trading name of BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited.

•  This information can be distributed in and from the DIFC by BlackRock Advisors (UK) Limited - Dubai Branch which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”) and is only directed at 'Professional Clients' and no other person should rely upon the information contained within it. Neither the DFSA or any other authority or regulator located in the GCC or MENA region has approved this information.

•  This information and associated materials have been provided to you at your express request, and for your exclusive use. This document is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution would be unlawful under the securities laws of such. Any distribution, by whatever means, of this document and related material to persons other than those referred to above is strictly prohibited.

•  Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and is not guaranteed. You may not get back the amount originally invested. Changes in the rates of exchange between currencies may cause the value of investments to diminish or increase. Fluctuation may be particularly marked in the case of a higher volatility fund and the value of an investment may fall suddenly and substantially. Levels and basis of taxation may change from time to time.

•  Any research in this document has been procured and may have been acted on by BlackRock for its own purpose. The results of such research are being made available only incidentally. The views expressed do not constitute investment or any other advice and are subject to change. They do not necessarily reflect the views of any company in the BlackRock Group or any part thereof and no assurances are made as to their accuracy. This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer, advice or invitation to anyone to invest in any BlackRock funds and has not been prepared in connection with any such offer. Subject to the express requirements of any client-specific investment management agreement or provisions relating to the management of a fund, we will not provide notice of any changes to our personnel, structure, policies, process, objectives or, without limitation, any other matter contained in this document. The information contained in this material is confidential and may not be reproduced or circulated beyond the intended recipients without the prior consent of the BlackRock Legal and Compliance department

•  © 2012 BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited. All rights reserved. Calls may be monitored or recorded.

•  This presentation is intended solely for specific category of audience and the same shall not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part to large audience, for any purpose whatsoever without prior written consent.

•  In this material DSP BlackRock Investment Managers Pvt. Ltd. (the AMC) has used information that is publicly available, including information developed in-house. Information gathered and used in this material is believed to be from reliable sources. The AMC however does not warrant the accuracy, reasonableness and / or completeness of any information.

•  For scheme risk factors and other details, please read the Scheme Information Document, Statement of Additional Information and Key Information Memorandum available on the AMC website www.dspblackrock.com.

•  All figures and other data mentioned in this material (unless otherwise specified) are as on 26th November, 2013 and the same may or may not be relevant in future. The data or figures mentioned in this material shall not be construed as indicative yields/returns/guarantee any performance of any of the Schemes of DSP BlackRock Mutual Fund.

•  Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future.

•  Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.

35

Page 36: India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 · 2016. 3. 23. · India Equity Market Outlook Dubai/Abu Dhabi Power of 3 February, 2014 . DSP BlackRock is BlackRock ... S

Disclaimer Cont…

•  BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Registered office: 12 Throgmorton Avenue, London, EC2N 2DL. Registered in England No. 2020394. Tel: 020 7743 3000. Tel: 020 7743 3000. For your protection, telephone calls are usually recorded. BlackRock is a trading name of BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited.

• 

•  This information can be distributed in and from the DIFC by BlackRock Advisors (UK) Limited - Dubai Branch which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”) and is only directed at 'Professional Clients' and no other person should rely upon the information contained within it. Neither the DFSA or any other authority or regulator located in the GCC or MENA region has approved this information.

• 

•  This information and associated materials have been provided to you at your express request, and for your exclusive use. This document is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution would be unlawful under the securities laws of such. Any distribution, by whatever means, of this document and related material to persons other than those referred to above is strictly prohibited.

• 

•  Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and is not guaranteed. You may not get back the amount originally invested. Changes in the rates of exchange between currencies may cause the value of investments to diminish or increase. Fluctuation may be particularly marked in the case of a higher volatility fund and the value of an investment may fall suddenly and substantially. Levels and basis of taxation may change from time to time.

• 

•  Any research in this document has been procured and may have been acted on by BlackRock for its own purpose. The results of such research are being made available only incidentally. The views expressed do not constitute investment or any other advice and are subject to change. They do not necessarily reflect the views of any company in the BlackRock Group or any part thereof and no assurances are made as to their accuracy. This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer, advice or invitation to anyone to invest in any BlackRock funds and has not been prepared in connection with any such offer. Subject to the express requirements of any client-specific investment management agreement or provisions relating to the management of a fund, we will not provide notice of any changes to our personnel, structure, policies, process, objectives or, without limitation, any other matter contained in this document. The information contained in this material is confidential and may not be reproduced or circulated beyond the intended recipients without the prior consent of the BlackRock Legal and Compliance department

• 

•  © 2012 BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited. All rights reserved. Calls may be monitored or recorded.

36