Safety Rating of Road Infrastructure-Focus on Vulnerable Road Users

Said DahdahRoad Safety ConsultantEnergy, Transport and Water Department

Road Safety Learning Day

30 March 2007

1.7Trachea, broncus, lung cancer12

1.8Diabetes mellitus11

1.8Malaria10

2.4Road Traffic Injuries9

2.8Tuberculosis8

3.4Diarrhoeal diseases 7

4.6Perinatal conditions6

5.4Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 5

5.6HIV/AIDS4

6.7Lower respiratory infections3

10.0Cerebrovascular disease 2

12.4Ischaemic heart disease 1

Proportion of total (%)Disease or InjuryRank Deaths

Global Health LossesTwelve leading causes of mortality, 2005 in LMIC

1.0Tuberculosis12

1.0Malaria11

1.4Diarrhoel diseases10

2.5Perinatal conditions9

2.8Trachea, broncus, lung cancer8

2.8Diabetes mellitus7

3.2Road traffic injuries6

3.5Lower respiratory infections5

8.3Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 4

10.2HIV/AIDS3

10.9Cerebrovascular disease 2

13.1Ischaemic heart disease 1

Proportion of total (%)Disease or injuryRank

Global Health LossesTwelve leading causes of mortality, 2030 in LMIC

3

DALYs in low and middle income countries (Total Population)

020,000,00040,000,00060,000,00080,000,000

100,000,000120,000,000140,000,000160,000,000180,000,000200,000,000

2005 2015 2030

TuberculosisMalariaRoad Traffic InjuriesHIV/AIDSPerinatal Conditions

13

91012

1

612

17

1

4

1526

DALYs in low and middle income countries (Male Population)

0

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

2005 2015 2030

MalariaTuberculosisRoad Traffic InjuriesHIV/AIDSPerinatal Conditions

12

61014

1

31315

1

2

16 22

DALYs in low and middle income countries (Male Population age 15-44)

010,000,00020,000,00030,000,00040,000,00050,000,00060,000,00070,000,00080,000,00090,000,000

2005 2015 2030

Malaria

Tuberculosis

Road Traffic Injuries

HIV/AIDS

12

522

1

1

22

622 1117

DALYs in low and middle income countries (Children age 5-14)

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

2005 2015 2030

Malaria

Tuberculosis

HIV/AIDS

Road Traffic Injuries

Lower respiratoryinfections

1

2

4

1622

1

1

4

2022

2

2327

DALYs 000’ in East Asia and The Pacific Region (Total Population)

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2002 2015 2030

HIV/AIDS

Tuberculosis

Road Traffic Injuries

Perinatal Condition

Unipolar depressivedisorders

1

68

21

3

1

1549

5 57

4

DALYs 000’ in East Asia and the Pacific Region (Children age 5-14)

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2002 2015 2030

Road traffic injuries

Respiratory infections

Unipolar depressivedisorders

4

3 1

22

1 1

7

10

DALYs 000' Europe and Central Asia (Children age 5-14)

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2002 2015 2030

HIV/AIDS

Road Traffic Injuries

RespiratoryInfectionsUnipolar depressivedisorders36

104

42 3

2

713

11

1

DALYs 000' in Middle East and North Africa Region (Male Population)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2002 2015 2030

HIV/AIDS

UnipolardepressivedisordersRespiratoryinfections

Road trafficinjuries

Perinatalconditions

65

5

311

1

74

42

46

13

DALYs 000' in Middle East and North Africa Region (Children age 5-14)

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

2002 2015 2030

Unipolar depressivedisordersFalls

Respiratory infections

Road traffic injuries

11

1

4 2 23 3 32

47

DALYs 000' in South Asia Region (Children age 5-14)

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2002 2015 2030

Road Traffic injuries

Unipolar depressivedisordersRespiratory infections4

2 1

1

1

62 3 2

DALYs in Sub-Saharan Africa Region (Total Population)

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2002 2015 2030

Road traffic injuriesTuberculosisMalariaHIV/AIDS

11

1

10 66

9 9 9

3 34

DALYs 000’ in Sub-Saharan Africa Region (Children age 5-14)

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2002 2015 2030

TuberculosisMalariaRoad traffic injuriesHIV/AIDSRespiratory infections

11 11 1410

13 16

3

2

11

1

32 3 2

Road crashes kill an estimated 1.2 million persons and injure around 50 million persons annually in low and middle income countries. Policies will need to focus on country-level strategies owned by governments in order to combat this epidemic.

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

2002 2020

High Income Countries

Europe and Central Asia

Latin America and the Carribean

Middle East and North Africa

Sub Saharan Africa

South Asia

East Asia and Pacific

Road traffic fatalities are predicted to increase by 67% by the year 2020

Road Safety Components

Road Safety Components

Human Vehicle Environment

National Casualty Reduction Target

In developed countries analysis shows that road infrastructure improvements are expected to deliver the greatest saving compared to vehicles and driver behaviorIn developing countries it is expected to deliver faster savings compared to behavior and vehicles

Problem of Accidents

Problem of Injury

System User System Designer

Quality Assurance of Safe Infrastructure

Tools Used in Infrastructure Safety

Network Safety Upgrading –Continuous Improvement

1. Collect reliable data

Police and statisticians must ensure serious crashes and risk factors are well recorded

2. Track performance

carry out post-project appraisals so that what works, and what does not, is learnt

Update the evidence base and improve the targeting of efficient life-saving measures

3. Apply what works

Reliable Crash data from Developing countries?

512260006

202050005

303040004

302140004

202040004

202040004

TotalPed.NMV occupants

MV occupantsTotalPed.NMV

occupantsMV

occupants

Number of Injuries (04-06)Number of Fatalities ( 04-06)Number of

accidents (04-06)

Yes it can be reliable but why and how and when?

74213518943269

15782215

28101351128

89353816281310598

651242111411366

TotalPedNMV occupants

MV occupantsTotalPedNMV

occupantsMV

occupants

Number of Injuries 04-06

Number of Fatalities 04-06

Number of

accidents 04-06

International Road Assessment Program iRAP

Drive safety upgrading where large numbers are killed and seriously injured

Global methodology to generate effective and economic countermeasure programmes

Cost efficient scale: economically significant reductions in death and serious injury measured by DALYs

Implement performance tracking methodologies for funding bodies to assess outcomes

Provide the training, manuals and web tools to build and sustainnational capability

Network Safety Upgrading –The Process1. Define action network

2. Inspect roads & map serious deficits

find the busy network where large numbers of deaths and maiming injury are concentrated

from road inspections, map deficits in lifesaving counter-measures falling below intervention levels

estimate option costs, casualty reduction benefits, and size of economic return. Assess and refine.

3. Generate safety upgrading options

generate options of affordable, economically significant, counter-measure packages

5. Recommend upgrading for action

recommend affordable, high return route and network safety upgrading projects – and action

4.Evaluate safety upgrading options

Star Rating using the extendedRoad Protection Score

iRAP Safety Rating Methodology

Risk table for headRisk table for head--on collisionon collision

Median treatment risk matrix and assignment of star rating

NB: Relative risk figures included in the table above are for illustrative purposes only

Risk table for lane width ( AMFs)

Road Design Elements and Risk

Undivided

Severe roadside

Narrow shoulders

Bad overtaking

Curves

Road Design Elements and Risk

DividedModerate roadside

Wide lanesWide shoulders

Good lines

Good overtaking Straight

Relative fatality risk/km/year

1 10 200

Road Protection Score- overall route

RPS starsTotal

1234Not rated

Detail: side area and median score

RPS starsTotal

1234Not rated

Fatal accidents

RPS starsTotal

1234Not rated

Pedestrian/Cyclists Risk TableProbability of serious or fatal injury ( MAIS3+)

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100Impact Speed ( Kph)

Cumulative Density Function for Pedestrian Fatalities

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Impact Speed (Kph)

Prob

. Fat

ality PCDS

Ashton at al

Dahdah

Vision Zero philosophyIntegration and Separation.1. Vulnerable road users should not be exposed to

motorised vehicles at speeds exceeding 30 km/h

2. If 1. cannot be satisfied then separate or reduce vehicle speed to 30 km/h

3. Car occupants should not be exposed to other motorised vehicles at speeds exceeding 50 km/h in 90 degree crossings

4. If 3. cannot be satisfied then separate or reduce angel or reduce speed to 50 km/h

Big Question

Why Developing Countries will not adopt such philosophy?

1- Is that because of lack of resources?2- Is there any conflict between this

philosophy and Mobility?3- Institutional problems?4- Is that because they don’t know about it?

iRAP Pilot

EuroRAPusRAP

AusRAPSouth Africa

MalaysiaCostaRica

Chile

What Transport Staff Can Do?

Pedestrian Markings at Uncontrolled Intersections

Safety Islands at Uncontrolled Wide intersections