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Innovative Approaches for Addressing Floods
Katie Hirschboeck & Kate Sammler
Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research
Tree-Ring DayEarth Science Week
March 29, 2010
Hirschboeck Research Themes:
Extreme High and Low Flow Years in Upper Colorado & Salt-Verde Basins based on Reconstructed Streamflow* 1521-1964
< 10th Percentile < 25th and ≥ 10th Percentile ≥ 25th and ≤ 75th Percentile > 75th and ≤ 90th Percentile > 90th Percentile
Upper Colorado River Basin
(UCRB) ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔
Salt -Verde -Tonto River Basin(SVT)
1520
1530
1540
1550
1560
1570
1580
1590
UC
RB
↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔
SV
T
1600
1610
1620
1630
1640
1650
1660
1670
1680
1690
UC
RB
↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔
SV
T
1700
1710
1720
1730
1740
1750
1760
1770
1780
1790
UC
RB
↔ * ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ * ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔
SV
T
1800
1810
1820
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
* Reconstructed annual water year discharge
UC
RB
↔ HH years (high flow in both basins)
↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ LL years (low flow in both basins)
SV
T
LH = Low in UCRB / High in SVT
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
HL = High in UCRB / Low in SVT (no occurrences)
Figure 15 – LL and HH water years with quantile time series
Extreme High and Low Flow Years in Upper Colorado & Salt-Verde Basins based on Reconstructed Streamflow* 1521-1964
< 10th Percentile < 25th and ≥ 10th Percentile ≥ 25th and ≤ 75th Percentile > 75th and ≤ 90th Percentile > 90th Percentile
Upper Colorado River Basin
(UCRB) ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔
Salt -Verde -Tonto River Basin(SVT)
1520 1530 1540 1550 1560 1570 1580 1590
UCRB↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔
SVT1600 1610 1620 1630 1640 1650 1660 1670 1680 1690
UCRB↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔
SVT1700 1710 1720 1730 1740 1750 1760 1770 1780 1790
UCRB↔ * ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ * ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔
SVT1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890
* Reconstructed annual water year discharge
UCRB ↔ HH years (high flow in both basins)
↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ LL years (low flow in both basins)
SVT LH = Low in UCRB / High in SVT
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960
HL = High in UCRB / Low in SVT (no occurrences)
Figure 15 – LL and HH water years with quantile time series
Tree Rings& Drought
Hydroclimatology
1670 = missing ringwide rings
shift to narrower rings
1670 = missing ring1670 = missing ringwide rings
shift to narrower rings
The “HIRSCHBO” LAB
Co-advising with Holly Hartmann:Jeannette EstesM.S. Hydrology & Water Resources
Volunteer: Nazanin BabamarandiFormerly: Iran MeteorologicalOrganization
Ela CzyzowskaPh.D. ProgramArid Lands ResourcesSciences
How can I remove these
trees?
Kate SammlerPh.D. ProgramSchool of Geography& Development
How would I classify THIS
flood!?
Jennifer (Welti) LeeM.S. Atmospheric
Sciencesin absentia
National Weather Service Forecaster, Hunstville AL
How are climate patterns & daily weather maps linked?
Ongoing collaboration:
Ashley ColesPh.D. ProgramUA School of
Geography&
Development
Why do people drive into
flooded washes?
Innovative Approaches for Addressing Floods
Katie Hirschboeck & Kate Sammler
Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research
Tree-Ring DayEarth Science Week
March 29, 2010
Beyond “Cuisinart” Hydrology:
EXTREME
MAKEOVER:
Southwest Climate
Edition
How can water managers better deal with events in the “tails” of streamflow probability distributions — both floods & droughts?
. . . By moving beyond conventional approaches . . . .
Statistically, EXTREME EVENTS are phenomena of the Lower & Upper Tails of Skewed Probability Distributions . . .
. . . are compelling benchmarks that aid in planning for future extreme LOW FLOW conditions using :
-- tree-ring reconstructions -- simulations-- scenario-building-- climate projection
modeling
For WESTERN WATER MANAGERS :
Water supply simulation based on extreme low flow sequences in the
paleo-record
STREAMFLOW RECONSTRUCTION for 1330-2005
Tree-Ring StreamflowReconstructions . . .
In contrast . . . FLOOD & WATERSHED MANAGERS are far more constrained in the ways they can incorporate climate change information operationally.
This is due to . . . .
-- the extreme, short-term, localized, and weather-based nature of flooding . . . .Photo by Ashley Coles
-- existing flood management policy and practices 100-Year Flood
Hazard Area
and . . . -- inconclusive evidence for increases in
extreme flooding in the U.S. :
“ There is no evidence of widespread or systematic increases in peak streamflows, although there is widespread evidence of increases occurring in annual low flows.”
Lins ( 2005)see also: Douglas et al., 2000; Lins and Slack 2005
LAND USE CHANGES = perceived as the more important issue
A Workshop on Global Change and
Extreme Hydrologic Events: Testing Conventional Wisdom
January 5, 2010 - January 6, 2010
Committee on Hydrologic Sciences
National Academy of Sciences
Information presented in an operationally useful format for flood & watershed managers
which describes how changes in the large-scale climatic “drivers” of hydrometeorological
extremes will affect flooding variability in SPECIFIC WATERSHEDS
What’s Needed:
Meteorological & climatological flood-producing
mechanisms operate at
varying temporal and spatial scales
FLOOD-CAUSING DRIVERS & MECHANISMS
What does it look like when classified hydroclimatically?
What kinds of storms produced the biggest floods?
Can we find out more about what drives this history of flooding?
FLOOD HYDROCLIMATOLOGY = classifying each flood in the record according to cause
As seen in a newspaper ad . . . .
“FLOOD PROCESSOR”
With expanded feed tube – for entering all kinds of flood data
including steel chopping, slicing & grating blades
– for removing unique physical characteristics, climatic information, and outliers
plus plastic mixing blade – to mix the populations together
Current practice analyzes floods using
“CUISINART”HYDROLOGY!
A Mixture of Flood Causes: Data from key flood subgroups may be
better for estimating the probability and type of extremely rare floods than a single “100-Year Flood” calculated from all the flood data combined!
Moving Beyond “Cuisinart” Hydrology . . . .
-- Useful for defining regions; -- Can then be used to estimate flow behavior in ungaged basins
(new USGS collaboration)
FLOODHYDROCLIMATOLOGY:
(1) Different types of FLOODS
(2) Different types ofSEASONAL FLOW REGIMES
Tropical Storm -related
Summer convective
Wintersynoptic (extreme )
Winter synoptic
(moderate)
From: Haney (2007) Southwest Hydrology
ConceptualEcological Modelfor a SouthwesternRiver Ecosystem
Flow regime is of central importance in sustainingthe ecological integrity of flowing water systems
Ecosystem Services Analysis of Climate Change and Urban Growth in the Upper Santa Cruz Watershed; the Santa Cruz Watershed Ecosystem Portfolio Model (SCWEPM) A decision support tool to mimic ecosystem services and alternative scenarios based on predictions of urban development and climate change
.
Based on USGS “peaks-above-base” record (annual & partial series)
PURPOSE: to determine hydroclimatic context for causes of floods in AZ watersheds
Flood Hydroclimatology Database
Model runs to link surface hydrology with scenario-
driven atmospheric circulation
Increasingly Important Research Needs:
DOWNSCALING-- clearly communicate accuracy in downscaled model results
-- don’t oversell the degree of precision
-- “scaling up from local data is as important as scaling down from globally forced regional models.”
-- regionally tailored indices may be better than the latest “index-de-jour”
Process studies at the watershed scale to specify climate linkages
Coupled with PROCESS-SENSITIVE
UPSCALING
WHAT WILL THE FUTURE HOLD?
. . . will climatic change
make floods more extreme? more
frequent?
or will they get smaller? more
frequent? less
frequent?
Some Important Flood-Generating Tropical Storms
Tropical storm Octave Oct 1983
(2) A Change in Frequency or Intensity of Tropical Storms?
(1) A Northward Shift in Winter Storm Track?
Roosevelt Dam Jan 1993 Winter flooding
on Rillito in Tucson
(3) A More Intense Summer Monsoon?
RillitoJuly 2006
THANK YOU!