Energy Efficiency as a Resource

Joel N. Swisher, PhD, PEDirector, Institute for Energy Studies

BA:Energy Policy &

Management

“Educating the leaders for our clean and efficient energy future through

interdisciplinary studies and research.”

INSTITUTE FOR

Western Washington University

ENERGY STUDIES

BS: Electrical Engineering w/ Energy

Concentration

Minor: Energy Policy

Minor: Energy Science

* see also energy.wwu.edu

ENRG courses now in the WWU catalogue

Autumn 2015 Winter 2016 Spring 2016 New in 2016-2017

ENRG 101 - Energy and Society ENRG 360 - Energy Efficiency and Carbon Neutral Design

ENRG 284 - The Business of Energy

ENRG 297B - The Geology of Energy Resources

ENRG 270 - Energy Science I ENRG 370 - Energy Science II ENRG 449 - Energy Systems

Transitions

ENRG 440 – Public/Stakeholder

Engagement in Energy Policy

ENRG 350 - Energy Policy and

Politics

ENRG 397C – Life Cycle Net Energy Analysis

ENRG 459 - Advanced Energy

Policy

ENRG 471 - Energy Project

Proposal

ENRG 372 - Electrical Power

and Electromechanical Devices

ENRG 374 - Energy Processing ENRG 378 - Smart and Renewable Power

ENRG 472 - Energy Project

Research and Development

ENRG 380 - Energy and

Environment

ENRG 380 - Energy and Environment

ENRG 480 - Applications in Energy Production

ENRG 473 - Energy Project

Implementation

ENRG 384 - Energy Economics ENRG 384 - Energy Economics ENRG 384 - Energy Economics ENRG 490 - Energy Capstone:

Energy System Synthesis

ENRG 386 - The Economics of

Electricity Markets

ENRG 484 - Economics of Alternative Energy

ENRG 386 - The Economics of Electricity Markets

ENRG 497D – Building Energy Management

>20 ENRG courses now in the catalogue:(several are cross-listed with ECON, EE, ENVS, ESCI)

Also: working with BTC on Associate of Applied Science – Transfer (AAS-T) degree in Engineering Technology: Clean Energy

Sample Job Titles:• Energy Economist• Energy Efficiency Analyst• Director of Energy Policy • Energy Program Manager • Energy Resource Planner• Renewable Energy Project Manager• Director of Greenhouse Gas Management • Founder, new energy-related enterprise

IES Advisory Board Members:• Snohomish PUD• Puget Sound Energy• Bonneville Power Administration• Ingersoll Rand/Trane Corp.• McKinstry Corp.• University Mechanical• Outback Power Systems• Alpha Technologies• Global Smart Energy• Alaska Airlines• Phillips 66• Climate Solutions• Glosten Associates• APCO Worldwide• Bullitt Foundation• Washington Dept. of Commerce.

A new initiative of the Institute for Energy Studies

(See Prof. Tom Webler or Prof. Sharon Shewmake)

7WWUInstituteforEnergyStudies

Award‐WinningWWUSolarWindowProject UnderdevelopmentbyWWUStudents IESfacultyadvisor,chemistryProf.DavidPatrick

SolarWindowTeambriefingSen.MariaCantwellatWWU,1May2015

(Bloomberg, 25 February 2015) Japan’s push to keep power flowing after it shuttered much of its nuclear program may be best illustrated by 73 million light bulbs. That’s the number of LED lamps sold in Japan since the beginning of 2012, representing about 30% of all lamps sold there. The LEDs, which consume a fifth the energy of standard lamps, are key to the country’s strategy to make energy use more efficient, even as it pursues alternative sources such as solar power, four years after the Fukushima nuclear meltdown.

Some History: the Oil Crises of the 1970s... will we run out? (and is that Elvis with Pres. Nixon?)

October 2012: Hurricane Sandy – signal or noise?Climate change impact or natural climate variability?

Energy and Energy Services

PRIMARY ENERGY

DELIVEREDENERGY

USEFULENERGY

SERVICERENDERED

CRUDE OIL OIL REFINERY ANDDISTRIBUTION SYSTEM

MOTORGASOLINE

AUTOMOBILE MOTIVEPOWER

DISTANCETRAVELED

COALPOWER STATION

AND GRID ELECTRICITY LAMPRADIANTENERGY ILLUMINATION

ENERGYCONVERSION

END-USETECHNOLOGY

Energy systems start with hot showers and cold beer*

*…unless you’re English…

US primary energy consumption as projected in 1976 by official sources and by Amory Lovins in “The Road Not Taken” article (Lovins was right)

Energy usage data is also a roadmap to the energy efficiency resource

EIA buildings energy data are comprehensive but not always up-to-date

Buildings: energy end-use breakdowns for residential and commercial sectors

Commercial: mostly electricity; lighting is largest end use (also adds to cooling load),

cooling and computers/electronics important, and also growing

Residential: major direct fuel use for space & water heat, cooking; electricity split between

lighting, appliances, computers/electronics, which is fastest growing end-use category

Thermal loads vary with seasonal weather –example from PSCo gas utility (my house)

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gas use vs temp

Electric loads also increase with higher temperatures…

Example of “bottom-up” energy analysis: Japan’s LEDs

If 73 million LED lamps save 50 watts on average:

Total lamp power reduced:

= 73 x 106 * 50W / 106 W/MW = 3,650 MW

Example of “bottom-up” energy analysis: Japan’s LEDs

If 73 million LED lamps save 50 watts on average:

Total lamp power reduced:

= 73 x 106 * 50W / 106 W/MW = 3,650 MW

Assuming lamps are used 6 hours/day on average:

Annual energy savings:

= 3,650 MW * 6 h/d * 365 d/y = 8 million MWh/y

Plant output = 1000 MW * 8000 h/y = 8 million MWh/y

a couple years’ of LED lamps = 1 avoided nuclear plant

Average U.S. Refrigerator Energy Use, Volume and Price over Time

Source: Appliance Standards Awareness Project, based on AHAM & US Census Bureau data

Energy Efficiency Measures in Residential Space Conditioning (heating & cooling) Building envelope (more important in small

buildings with surface high area/volume ratio)u Insulation, better windows, tighten against infiltrationu Passive solar: window orientation, thermal mass, etc.

Efficient air conditioning, heating, water heatingu Air-conditioning coefficient of performance ~4u (condensing) gas furnace or boiler efficiency 90+% u Electric heat pump >200% heating efficiency (COP>2)u Above all, avoid electric resistance heating! (COP≤1)u Water heating: heat pump or tankless gas-fired unit

The ductless heat pump – a potential game changer in electric space heating

• High efficiency (COP>3) down to ~0oF• No duct work (or duct losses)

• Individual room/zone sizing, control• Big challenge to natural gas heating

A Daylit Library

Fossil Ridge High School, Colorado

The ultimate goal:Efficient energy load- Energy productionZero energy building!

The Adam J. Lewis Center for Environmental Studies at Oberlin College, Ohio USA

Today’s largest zero net energy commercial building, a 50,000 ft2

living building… …in Seattle!

100% rooftop solar PV powered (no external solar panel area)

The Bullitt Foundation headquarters in Seattle

International fuel economy standards (mpg) Each Technical Option May Involve Three Types of Innovation to Achieve Success

q Technology innovation: better energy, environmental and functional performance

q Design methodology innovation: integrated, bottom-up (whole-system) solutions

q Business model innovation: capturing customer value, reducing company and societal risk, and responding to policy direction

Edwin Land: “People who seem to have had a new idea have often just stopped having an old idea”

Building and Industrial Electric Loads:Energy Efficiency + Peak Demand = DSM

Fuel costs and emissions are driven by total utility energy (kWh) consumption, which can be reduced by implementing energy efficiency programs

However, much of an electric utilities’ capital costs is driven by maximum peak demand (kW)

Therefore, utility resource planning (including energy efficiency programs) is designed to manage both total consumption (kWh) and peak demand (kW)

Utilities call this combined strategy demand-side management (DSM), in which they treat technology that improves energy efficiency as an energy resource

One approach: utilities invest in their customers’ efficiency

Energy efficiency resource standard (EERS) - an absolute target for energy efficiency to be achieved by utilities - Map shows 2020 cumulative electricity savings targets by state*

VT-30%

26%MA-26%

18%

17%

CT-18%MD-25%DE-25%

RI-14%

15%

16%

14%

3%13%

14%

12%11%

12%

10%11%

17%13%

4%

7%8%

10%

4%

*Includes extensions to 2020 at savings rates that have been established

4%

For historical perspective, the 1991 resource plan from the Northwest Power Planning Council (in a relatively low-cost region for electric energy)

1990 NW efficiency resource was estimated at about 4,000 average MW (35 million MWh/year) at less than $0.06/kWh ($60/MWh)

In its sixth plan (2010), the Northwest Power and Conservation Council estimated the efficiency resource at about 4000 average MW (35 million MWh/year) at less than $50/MWh, not counting tighter Federal efficiency standards

* The efficiency resource seems to be getting bigger and cheaper, despite achieving massive savings to date (half of regional load growth since the 1980s)

2010 NW efficiency resource is estimated at about 4,000 average MW (35 million MWh/year) at less than $0.05/kWh ($50/MWh) -the efficiency resource gets bigger & cheaper!

= 6th Power Plan 2010

Case study in energy efficiency hoaxes and real opportunity: 1999 – internet “smelters”

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Forbes article Corrected by LBNL

Ele

ctri

city

use

(bi

llio

n kW

h/ye

ar) Energy to manufacture equipment

Routers in LANS and WANsRouters on InternetPCs at home for all purposesPCs in offices for all purposesTelephone central officesWeb sitesMajor dot-com companies

Koomey, Jonathan, Kaoru Kawamoto, Bruce Nordman, Mary Ann Piette, and Richard E. Brown. 1999. Initial comments on 'The Internet Begins with Coal'. Berkeley, CA: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. LBNL-44698. December 9. (http://enduse.lbl.gov/projects/infotech.html)

Electricity “used by the internet in 1999”from the Forbes article, corrected by LBNL

The first serious consideration of data center energy efficiency, 2003

Energy Efficient Data Centers’ Potential

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Current Practice Best Practices with Current Products Projected with Advanced Concepts

UPS & Other

Lighting

HVAC

Computing

200 W/ft2

100 W/ft2

current practices ‘state-of-the-shelf’ advanced designs

UPSLightingCooling

Computing

• Data centers’ “power utilization effectiveness” = total power / server power• Legacy systems’ PUE > 2; state-of-the-art now about 1.1 (>90% reduction in auxiliaries)• This still doesn’t account for server utilization or recognize virtualization potential

Frying an egg on an Athlon XP1500+ in 11 minutes

Compounding energy losses (and hence saving potential) in data centers(site energy only)

(all of these losses, except lighting, are in series with each other…)

Compounding energy losses (and hence saving potential) in data centers(including power supply system, i.e., emissions)

Applicability of air-side economizer (outdoor air) cooling in data centers with 27oC (80oF) threshold

Legacy systems’ power supplies are inefficient, especially at part load, where data center servers nearly always operate

Energy efficiency in developing countries

In China, for example, every new building, factory or vehicle is a commitment to new infrastructure

• Power generation capacity• Power transmission and distribution• Fuel supply and processing• Railroad capacity and fueling• Fuel transportation pipelines, etc.• Water supply and treatment• Local and GHG emissions

Compounding energy losses (and hence saving potential) in vehicles

Fuel Chemical Energy

Mechanical DrivetrainWork

Energy to Wheels

Total Kinetic Energy

Payload Kinetic Energy

100% 38% 15% 5% <1%62% thermodynamic losses in the engine3% accessories, 20% drivetrain friction and idling lossesOf the remaining 15% of the fuel energy (actually delivered to the wheels):5% aerodynamic drag loss, 5% rolling resistance friction loss5% accelerates the car, of which <1% moves the driverEach unit of energy saved at the wheels saves ~7 units of gasoline in the tank

The “Idea” from Bright Automotive: - A light-weight, high-efficiency plug-in hybrid fleet vehicle for short-haul delivery and utility work truck - Operates at low speed with many stops, so lightweight design is key, and plug-in hybrid power-train is effective

The “Idea” from Bright Automotive:

www.brightautomotive.com

q Because both renewable and conventional energy will be expensive and limited, there is powerful leverage to high-efficiency energy end-use technology Reducing loads lowers supply capacity, cost, O&M, etc. Or, with fixed capacity, enables service to more customers

q Customers can’t finance high-efficiency end-use equipment Must be packaged with energy supply (thus saving supply cost) Concession model: customers can pay over time, but not up front

q Classic example: CFL/LED lighting 4x efficiency gain vs incandescent May even justify LEDs (higher cost, same efficiency, more robust)

q Other examples DC power supplies, chargers Matched motors/pumps Freight transportation? Cooling, refrigeration (medical)

u (such 24/7 end-uses may require dedicated energy storage capacity) The “Mai Ruwa”

Role of energy efficiency in basic economic development Decompounding mass and complexity also decompounds cost

Only ~40–50 kg C, 20–45 kWe, no paint?, radically simplified, little assembly,...

Exotic materials, low-volume special propulsion components, innovative design

Compounding losses…or savings—so start saving at the downstream end Texas Instruments, Richardson, Texas

300 mm wafer fab, 100,000m2 cleanroom

The RMI team’s assignment:30% more energy efficient……at no net incremental cost

Why is the efficiency resource getting bigger and cheaper even as we “use it up?”

q Short answer – technology (a renewable resource) and incentives

q Policy (standards, procurement, DSM) encourage tech development

q Cheaper production: efficient mass production (often offshore), higher volumes, cheaper electronics, competition, better technology Compact fluorescent lamps: >$20 in 1983, $2–5 now, LED prices falling too

Electronic T8 ballasts: >$80 1990, <$10 now (and lm/W up 30%)

Direct/indirect luminaires: gone from premium to cheapest option

Industrial variable-speed drives: ~60–70% cheaper since 1990

Window a/c: 54% cheaper than 1993, 13% more efficient, digital

Low-E window coatings: ~75% cheaper than ten years ago

q New products, e.g., ductless “mini-split” room heat pumps

q Occasional “no-brainer” energy use, e.g., 500-W torchiere lighting, plasma TV, data centers from the 1st internet boom…

q Only a few technologies are getting saturated (e.g., T8 lamps…)

LED Lamp Example

q 15 watts, 20,000 hours, costs $20 (!)

q Replaces (20x) incandescent light bulb (ILB):

75 watts, 1000 hours, $0.50 each

q If we use the CFL 2000 hours/year,

it lasts 10 years and replaces 2 ILBs/year

q CRF (10 years, 8% discount rate) = 0.15

q Annual cost = 0.15 ($20) - 2 ($0.50) = $2/year

q Annual savings = 2000 hours (75 W - 15 W) = 120 kWh/year

Cost of Saved Energy = $2 / 120 kWh = $0.017/kWh

(much less than $0.11/kWh retail price of electricity)

q Wait! New Federal lighting efficiency standards require all light bulbs of this size to use no more than 55 watts!

q Annual savings = 2000 hours (55 W - 15 W) = 80 kWh/year

Cost of Saved Energy = $2 / 80 kWh = $0.025/kWh

(…and CFLs are cheaper still…)

Boeing 787: reducing fuel & emissions from aircraft is all about weight!

Data center energy loss reduction potentialq Cooling system: 60% reduction via relaxed set

temperature, air management (hot/cold aisles, air-side economizers

q Lighting: 50% reduction via hardware, controls q UPS: 30% reduction via rotary UPS, delta circuit

conversionq Server fans: 50% reduction via removal of unneded

fans enabled by proper air managementq Power supply: 60% reduction via high-efficiency (at

part-load power supply hardware)q Utilization: 50% reduction via virtualization, better

softwareq Overall efficiency rises from 2.5% to 20% => 8x!

Simply separating hot (return) and cold (supply) data center air flows prevents short-circuiting, improves efficiency

Energy savings $75k/year

Incremental costs:Windows $68kDaylighting $18kInsulation $17kLighting $21kTotal $124k

(1.6 year payback)

HVAC saving $160kNet total -$36k

(immediate payback!)

Grand Forks Office Example

“Tunneling through the cost barrier”Saving from design integration > cost of efficient technology

Per Capita Spending on Electric Efficiency Programs

4%

1.5%

2.5%

Share of annual utility revenues committed to energy efficiency

The forgotten math of utility planning

1. Customer bill {$} = energy tariff {$/kWh} * energy usage {kWh} Minimizing the tariff is usually the wrong goal

What is a “ratepayer” anyway?

2. Capacity reserve = supply capacity – load Increasing supply capacity isn’t the only way to

balance supply and demand

Managing load can improve reliability

3. …and…

Demand-Side Efficiency

1x 1,000MWDistributed Renewables

= 1,000 x 1MW

Plug-In HybridsUtility Scale Renewables Sources of energy losses (& efficiency opportunities) in class 8 trucks

• Although most energy losses occur in the engine, overall truck fuel economy depends on multiple sources of engine load

• For long-haul trucks travelling at high speed, aerodynamics is key (cube law)• Cab/trailer integration is crucial, but hard to achieve in fragmented industry• Other efficiency gains in reduced rolling-resistance tires, auxiliary power units

How can this energy efficiency potential exist?

Economic indicators of the “barriers” to efficiency investments

q Observed activity of energy users indicate that treat energy savings as highly risky (>40% ‘internal discount rate’ or <2 year ‘payback’)

q Estimated price elasticity of demand is in the range -0.1 – -0.3 across all sectors, indicating tendency of energy users to require steep energy prices before investing in energy efficiency (or changing habits)