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IISSnews May 2010

The ripple effects of the financial crisis, the fun-damental shifts in the global economy and their implications for the global distribution of power were hotly debated at the first IISS Geo-economic Strategy Summit: The Bahrain Global Forum held in Manama, Bahrain from 14 to 16 May. Hundreds of government officials, business leaders, inter-national civil servants, economists and strategic thinkers from Asia, Africa, North America, Latin America and Europe converged on the Bahrain capital to discuss the influence of economic fac-tors on geopolitics, and debate whether and how growing prosperity in emerging countries on one hand and economic malaise in parts of the devel-oped world were affecting global politics and governance. Coming on the heels of the Greek

debt crisis that fuelled fears over the euro and the global economic recovery, the conference served as a moment to reflect on the deep trends of geo-economics, examine the instruments for national, regional and international action, speculate on the intentions and trajectories of the main powers and discuss how to sustain development despite the global financial difficulties.

In the presence of His Royal Highness the Crown Prince of Bahrain Salman Bin Hamad Al Khalifa who attended the opening dinner, Dr John Chipman, IISS Director-General and Chief Executive, addressed the delegates at the open-ing of the IISS–Middle East office on 14 May and outlined the ambitious agenda of the conference: ‘Firstly, what will be the relationship between the

so-called emerging markets and the established industrialised world on the best ways to govern the now virtually indivisible and certainly inter-dependent global economies? Secondly, what is the right balance in this delicate economic envi-ronment between what has been styled state and private capitalism? What are the methods by which foreign direct investment can best be encouraged today? Thirdly, in what ways do various countries in the world have to diversify their economies and indeed change their national business models to adapt to the world as it is now? Fourthly, how should countries protect the economic recovery and also protect the open economic system that normally provides such global benefits? Fifthly, what new dynamic relationships between regions,

Bahrain Global Forum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1Key Addresses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9South Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11Non-proliferation and Disarmament . . . . . . 12Transnational Threats . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13IISS Focus on Afghanistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14Russia–Eurasia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

European Security/Climate Change and Energy Security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16Middle East and Gulf Security . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17IISS–Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18IISS–Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19IISS–US . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20Publications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

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Bahrain Global Forum 2010The 1st IISS Geo-economic Strategy Summit

2 | MAy 2010 IISS NEwS

bahrain global forum

especially between the Middle East and Asia, can help to promote growth?’

In his opening address, Montek Singh Ahluwalia, Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission of India, provided a cautiously opti-mistic assessment of the direction of the global economy. Noting with relief that countries had put forward strong stimulus packages, he shared his concern that the need for greater fiscal disci-pline in the industrialised world could complicate the economic recovery. Mr Ahluwalia argued that India itself was not decoupled from the global economy but argued that the trends behind India’s and indeed Asia’s growth had not been funda-mentally affected, and that while India is still a magnet for foreign investors, the country’s success and new outlook also mean that Indian firms are now looking for opportunities abroad. As India’s

representative for the upcoming G20 summit in Toronto, Mr Ahluwalia described the value of G20 deliberations and welcomed its more inclusive set-up, but preferred not to speculate on the outcome of the summit or to outline vast ambitions for it.

The first plenary session, entitled the Changing Global Balance of Economic Power and Its International Impact, brought to the fore the fortunes of the great powers. Professor Heizo Takenaka, Director of the Global Security Research Institute at Keio University, noted that the eco-nomic power balance was changing greatly and rapidly. China is expected to overtake Japan in terms of GDP after experiencing a V-type recovery from the crisis. Europe, he said, was following an L-shaped trajectory, while the US was performing better with a U-shaped course. The rise of China will be affected by three factors, Mr Takenaka said.

Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS

Dr Heizo Takenaka, Professor and Director, Global Security Research Institute, Keio University

Montek Singh Ahluwalia, Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission, India

Richard Cooper, Maurits C Boas Professor of International Economics, Harvard University

Firstly, its growth has so far been a reflection of the growing input of labour, capital and energy, but China is taking great strides in technology and productivity, a sign of economic maturity. Secondly, while China has benefited from a favour-able exchange rate against the dollar, the need to fight inflation may change that calculus in coming times and lead to an appreciation of its currency. Mr Takenaka speculated that China’s GDP could overtake the US GDP as early as 2015. Thirdly, he posited that the emergence of domestic challenges, from demographic considerations to the issue of democratisation, is taking place alongside a grad-ual change at the leadership level. The interplay between the two will have great implications for China. Japan, however, is lagging behind for lack of political leadership despite a wealth of technol-ogy and human talent. Mr Takenaka also noted a

IISS NEwS MAy 2010 | 3


revival of quasi-state capitalism in Asia. Professor Richard Cooper, Maurits C Boas Professor of International Economics at Harvard University, argued that for the change in the rest of the world, the US position remained firm as a result of its innovation potential, its flexible economy and its healthy demographics. Looking at the global evo-lution since the 1950s, the US had a more stable growth trajectory than other nations or regions. The gap in wealth between them has narrowed but never disappeared, as the US manages to sustain its development and set the bar ever higher. He expected China to become the world’s second-larg-est economy, but doubted it would overtake the US even by 2030. Mr Cooper insisted that the US

would preserve its global leadership role, if only because of the ‘thick skin’ it has developed, and which other contenders, like China, don’t have.

The second plenary session, Attracting Investment after the Financial Crisis, looked at how nations with varying strengths and chal-lenges managed to sustain their development and lure foreign investors in the new economic context. Imad Fakhoury, the Minister of Public Sector Development and Minster of State for Mega Projects of Jordan, explained how his country achieved ‘great successes in spite of some of the geopolitical constraints’. He noted that despite 2009 being a difficult year for the Middle East as a whole, Jordan avoided recession and was gearing up for

higher growth rates. Jordan’s targeted investment approach and decision to pursue a multi-dimen-sional modernisation agenda despite the difficult environment ensure its continued attractiveness for foreign investors. Liberalisation of the economy, partnerships between the public and private sec-tors and global integration remain the drivers of resource-poor Jordan’s development strategy.

Dongsun Park, the Ambassador for International Economic Cooperation of the Republic of Korea, posited that the G20 was well placed to deal with macroeconomic and governance challenges. US leadership and broad international dialogue are needed to advance its ambitious agenda. He stressed the need to combat trade protectionism, noting

Bill Emmott (Chair), Independent writer; former Editor, The Economist, UK

Lord Powell of Bayswater (Chair), former Private Secretary and Adviser on Foreign Affairs and Defence to Prime Ministers Thatcher and Major, UK

Imad Fakhoury, Minister of Public Sector Development and Minister of State for Mega Projects, Jordan

Abdullah Bin Hamad Al Attiyah, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy and Industry, Qatar

Dongsun Park, Ambassador for International Economic Cooperation, Republic of Korea

Tulsi Tanti, Chairman and Managing Director, Suzlon Energy Ltd, India

Kairat Kelimbetov, Chief Executive Officer, Samruk-Kazyna, Kazakhstan

Thongloun Sisoulith, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Laos



with satisfaction that G20 countries were uphold-ing their obligations, and continue to liberalise the global investment climate. Kairat Kelimbetov, the Chief Executive Officer of Samruk-Kazyna (Kazakhstan’s sovereign wealth fund), outlined his country’s development trajectory. High growth for several years in a row created fears of overheat-ing. The credit crisis and the drop in oil prices in 2008–2009 were two shocks absorbed by a stimu-lus package, but which also injected new thinking about diversification beyond reliance on oil, gas and raw materials exports. State modernisation and structural reforms are accompanying greater interaction with China, the GCC and traditional partners in the neighbourhood, the establishment of oil funds and investment vehicles.

The third plenary session, Harnessing Energy Resources for Economic Prosperity and Security, addressed how rising demand for energy, energy security, environmental considerations, energy efficiency and the development of energy-pro-ducing nations can be reconciled. Abdullah Bin Hamad Al Attiyah, the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy and Industry of Qatar, stressed the interplay between human progress and energy. Yet, ‘the way we produce and con-sume energy is not sustainable, neither from the overall consumptions and overall resources nor from the environmental standpoint,’ leading to an international need to rethink production and con-sumption. That adaptation needs to be taken into account in the developing nations’ requirement for

‘adequate, affordable and reliable modern sources of energy’, otherwise their development will be adversely impacted. For the energy-exporting countries, energy needs to be part of an integrated development strategy. Otherwise, they will remain vulnerable to price volatility. ‘High oil prices can have adverse effects on the economic and social developments of importing countries and low [prices] can undermine development in exporting countries,’ he said. Tulsi Tanti, the Chairman and Managing Director of Suzlon Energy, defended a definition of energy security that emphasised ‘access to secure, sustainable and affordable energy for every human being’. He underlined the value of new energy sources and energy efficiency in meeting this challenge, especially renewable

Lord Malloch Brown (Chair), International Consultant, world Economic Forum

Professor François Heisbourg (Chair), Chairman, IISS

Shaikh Ahmed Bin Mohammed Al Khalifa, Minister of Finance, Bahrain

Steffen Kampeter, Parliamentary State Secretary, Ministry of Finance, Germany

Otaviano Canuto, Vice President and Head of Poverty Reduction and Economic Management, world Bank

Lord (Robert) Skidelsky, Chairman, Centre for Global Studies

Dr Adel Abdalla Al wuqayan, Secretary General, Supreme Council for Planning and Development, Kuwait

Igor yurgens, Chairman of the Board, Bank Renaissance Capital, Russia



sources like wind power. In particular, the Middle East, with its high energy consumption and future needs, should invest in renewable energies to sus-tain efficient development. Thongloun Sisoulith, the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Laos, recounted how a landlocked, developing nation surrounded by fast-growing powers, can still carve itself a potential for growth by focusing on macroeconomic stability and better governance. Although lacking its own oil reserves, Laos has been vulnerable to oil volatility but it has invested greatly in hydropower and now exports energy to its neighbours.

In the fourth plenary, entitled Developing World Economies: Building Growth and Security, the speakers addressed the nexus between gover-nance and growth. Shaikh Ahmed Bin Mohammed Al Khalifa, the Minister of Finance of Bahrain who also serves as the Chairman of the Development Committee of the World Bank, discussed the ways world governance was changing with the advent of the G20 to better reflect the balance of world economic power, including at the World Bank. The international system needs to build a better regulatory framework to help developing nations with their own challenges, from debt to energy subsidies to trade. Otaviano Canuto, the Vice President and Head of Poverty Reduction and Economic Management at the World Bank, considered that the climate change crisis, the economic and financial crisis and the fragile and post-conflict-affected states crisis create acute chal-lenges for the developing world. The nexus among economics, governance and security is a main focus of the World Bank’s work because the per-vasive and transnational nature of contemporary violence, whether born from crime, competition or exclusion, has a profound impact on a country’s

prospects, he said. Adel Abdalla Al Wuqayan, the Secretary-General of Kuwait’s Supreme Council for Planning and Development, described the role of Kuwait in supporting the international action through the G20 and other international institu-tions and responding to the regional aspect of the economic crisis, including through the convening by Kuwait of an Arab summit in 2009 to look into consequences and responses. He noted that eco-nomic imbalances in the Arab world have created threats to national and regional stability and secu-rity.

The fifth plenary session, European Perspectives on Economic Growth, Security and the World Economy, was an opportunity to reflect on Europe’s economic future at a time when member states’ budget deficits were coming under scrutiny and questions were arising about the strength of the euro. Dr Steffen Kampeter, the Parliamentary State Secretary of the German Federal Ministry of Finance, mounted a spirited defence of the EU’s efforts to contain the Greek debt crisis and prevent further ripple effects. He recognised that ‘the crisis has revealed weaknesses in the governance mech-anism of the EU and the euro area’, but stressed that ‘politicians all over Europe in all member states, the ECB and the European Commission will undertake all necessary steps to strengthen and stabilise the euro and the financial stability of our currencies’. The short term priority is to sta-bilise the economies of the euro and the medium term is for European countries to consolidate their finances. This will require ‘deeper coordination and surveillance of fiscal and economic policies’ in parallel to other growth strategies and the pro-motion of open market and free trade around the world. Lord Robert Skidelsky, the Chairman of the Centre for Global Studies and a Member of the UK

House of Lords, offered a contextual perspective of Europe and its role in the world. Member states of the EU see the world and Europe’s role differently, which creates a tension at the heart of the European project. For those who believe in a multipolar world, the EU is a pole in itself, but Lord Skidelsky argued that ‘without the classic sinews of power, Europe cannot seriously claim pole status’. For those who believe in a multilateral world defined by an ‘American-led global partnership’, the EU is an indispensable partner that complements and supports its American ally. Lord Skidelsky offered a sceptical view of European power and achieve-ments so far, arguing that ‘the euro zone was a flawed construction, driven largely by political motives, and it is now unravelling’, and that the democratic deficit of the EU was a limitation on its power. Professor Igor Yurgens, Chairman of the Board of Russia’s Bank Renaissance Capital and an IISS Council Member, noted that Russia’s econ-omy has been hit by the global crisis, which has exposed some structural weaknesses that must be addressed through greater openness. Europe has become an important actor in the Russian sphere as Russia modernises its system and its economy. In Mr Yurgens’s mind, ‘overcoming the aftermath of the crisis as well as solving more long-term tasks, requires Russia’s broadest possible integra-tion into the world economy’. EU cooperation, capital and markets remain indispensable in that regard. Russia also needs to couple cooperation with the EU with other relationships, especially the Community of Independent States.

Pascal Lamy, the Director-General of the World Trade Organisation, gave a Special Address enti-tled ‘Reshuffling the Deck of Global Economic Cards’. He noted that ‘global economic gover-nance is undergoing a major overhaul’ at a time

Pascal Lamy, Director-General, world Trade Organisation Alison Smale (Chair), Executive Editor, International Herald Tribune, US



when diversity within the developing world and interdependence in matters ranging from financial recovery to food security, were growing as well, creating a more complex landscape. A more rep-resentative G20 may have coordinated an effective response to the financial crisis, but it has not yet ‘filled in the regulatory gap in international finance that was [its] main cause’. At the same time, the role of the G20 in relation to international institutions is still not clear. Commenting on global governance and the Doha trade talks, Mr Lamy described ‘an attempt by the developing world to set the trade record straight, an attempt to rebalance the rules of the international game in its favour.’ Because of the ‘one country one vote’ system, Mr Lamy said, the WTO was less in need of reform than the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, but change is happening daily ‘in terms of the substance, shape and form of the regulatory frame-work for international trade’. He predicted that ‘the conclusion of [the Doha round] will be one of the world’s first confirmations of this changed eco-nomic power balance,’ and would ‘inject $300–400 billion a year into the global economy.’ He put the onus on ‘governments to push through their par-liaments or the equivalent of the parliaments the necessary trade-offs and convince public opinion that this is a win-win game.’ Mr Lamy expressed his relief that, despite the global economic crisis, WTO members ‘have not backtracked from their commitments and obligations under WTO rules,’ also mentioning the creation of ‘a special monitor-ing mechanism aimed at detecting trade-restrictive measures around the globe’. The multilateral trad-ing system had successfully dealt with the crisis, but he warned against complacency.

The sixth plenary session, entitled New Centres of Economic Power: Towards a 21st Century Global

Economic Architecture, offered a broad perspective of the interplay between geopolitics and geo-eco-nomics. Carl Bildt, the Foreign Minister of Sweden, asserted that ‘economic strength, growth and inte-gration are important when it comes to shaping the strategic relationships of tomorrow’s world.’ Politics and markets are inherently linked and one cannot dominate one or the other without caus-ing tensions or imbalances. The global response to the economic crisis, ‘a near-death experience’ that could have seen economic collapse, financial paralysis and protectionism, was two-fold: ‘new mechanisms for global dialogue, in particular the G20 and the mother of all stimulus programmes in virtually all countries with China in the lead.’ That combination worked to some extent, reviving growth in some parts of the world. Other countries are now struggling with the ripple effects, which have exposed the need for structural reform. Mr Bildt said other countries can draw on the experi-ence of the Nordic states in reforming the state and slashing deficits in the 1990s for lessons about how to tackle their current fiscal woes. Mr Bildt stressed the need for a global perspective on challenges and instruments. Taking stock of the Doha Round and the Copenhagen Climate Agreement difficulties, he stated that ‘we are no longer living in a world where things can simply be dictated by the Atlantic powers. We need to look at reforming the United Nations.’ He also called for rethinking member-ship of the G20 to better represent constituencies rather than states, and proposed it could evolve into ‘a global economic council side-by-side with the Security Council.’ Geoffrey Allen, the National Chairman of Australia’s Committee for Economic Development, emphasised the growing influ-ence of developing nations in the global economy, illustrating his claim with IMF figures showing

that ‘developing countries will generate 70% of global growth in 2010, up from 40% a decade ago. ... China alone will generate more growth than the entire 67 [countries], and India will generate more growth than all the 27 countries in the EU.’ Global governance needs to reflect that reality and reform accordingly. Mr Allen noted that the more inclusive G20 and other reforms mean that Asia has ‘benefited most from the smooth operation of global institutions in recent decades and has a deep interest in its continuance.’ Asia itself needs to work out how to organise itself to discuss, raise and promote issues and interests at the G20. Sanjaya Baru, the Editor of the Business Standard and the IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for Geo-Economics and Strategy, posited that, while many nations are experiencing rapid growth, ‘whether and when the new centres of prosperity become new centres of power is not yet clear.’ Japan, for instance, has not translated its wealth into power. New centres may content themselves with greater wealth and not produce ‘new economic perspectives,’ thus perpet-uating the western dominance on economic ideas. Mr Baru saw the G20, now an accepted forum but once a heretical idea, as ‘the womb in which the new architecture will take shape’. He wondered how a reform of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund giving India and China a greater voice would change their policies and approach, perhaps leading one day to a ‘Beijing Consensus’. The effectiveness of the revamped institutions will also determine whether multilateralism continues to dominate over regionalism. Offering an Indian perspective, he explained that India’s grand strat-egy was deeply intertwined with its development goals and quoted an former Indian foreign minister as saying India was a ‘Premature Power’ that relies on the international system to advance.

Carl Bildt, Minister for Foreign Affairs, Sweden Geoffrey Allen, National Chairman, Committee for Economic Development of Australia

Dr Sanjaya Baru, Editor, Business Standard, IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for Geo-Economics and Strategy



The panel presented a historical perspective of the relatively prominent role of the state in the cases of China, Egypt, South Africa and the Gulf countries. The discussion provided a diver-sity of views, which related directly to socialist market economies, state-led and market-based economies. Participants agreed that a better understanding required:

• a deeper analysis of both recent market and state failures;

• a more accurate definition of the state not only as the executive branch but also as the legis-lative and judiciary branches of power;

• the factoring of cultural differences across countries;

• better identification of the role that a value system should play in well-functioning societies;

• acknowledgment of the role of political elites in the political economy of change and the incen-tives that they might have to bring about change;

• the potential for south–south trade and cooperation across developing countries as a rela-tively new phenomenon and analyse its possible implications; and

• the factoring of the growing role of sover-eign wealth funds and their potential impact on both corporate and economic governance.

There were differences in defining the revamped role of the state in economic develop-ment in the 21st century. However, there was consensus on the need for the state (1) to develop a vision of the strategic future in conjunction with the private sector, (2) to ensure development and not just promote growth, and provide the appro-priate legal and regulatory framework, including good governance practices and where necessary the incentives for the private sector to lead inno-vation and production processes, and finally (3) to provide safety nets and public goods to the population.

An active debate took place on the political and economic aspects of post-conflict peace-building, with a particular focus on the role of capital in fostering peace and the conditions necessary for sustainable security. From the perspective of the multilateral institutions, it was emphasised that the growing debate between trade and aid as the key foundation for development was obscuring

a more prosaic reality, namely that in order for trade and investment to be successful and sus-tainable, a necessary foundation of infrastructure and good governance would have to be put in place, which often only was provided through traditional channels of development aid. There is an increasing desire for developing coun-tries – and post-conflict countries with natural

resources in particular – to attract investment in return for long-term infrastructure development that is critical to the creation of a functioning market economy. Key lessons were drawn from the examples of Iraq, Colombia and Lebanon. It was made clear that in the absence of an inclusive political, rules-based settlement, economic and other incentives would have limited potential.

(l–r): Juan Fernando Vargas, Professor of Economics, Universidad del Rosario; Dr Sinan Mohammed Rida Al Shabibi, Governor, Central Bank of Iraq; Sir John Scarlett (Chair), Senior Adviser, Morgan Stanley, Chief, Secret Intelligence Service 2004–2009, UK; Fouad Makhzoumi, Chairman, Future Pipe Group, Chairman, Future Management Holdings; Alastair McKechnie, Director, Fragile and Conflict-Affected Countries Group, world Bank

(l–r): Moeletsi Mbeki, Deputy Chairman, The South African Institute of International Affairs, IISS Council Member; Chen Feng, Chairman, HNA Group Company Ltd; Shaikh Mohammed Bin Essa Al Khalifa (Chair), Chief Executive Officer, Bahrain Economic Development Board; Khalid Ibrahim El Saied Emara, Deputy-Assistant Foreign Minister for International Economic Relations, Egypt; Simon williams, Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa, HSBC

Simultaneous Special Session 2: Investing for peace: stability in post-conflict economies

Simultaneous Special Session 1: The changing role of the state in economic development: state vs private capitalism



The panel agreed that the financial crisis was followed by a rejection of trade protection-ism, a contrast with the reaction to the Great Depression of the 1930s. There is however a move towards heavy and unilateral regulation that was resisted by emerging market govern-ments, who came out as defenders of markets and of capitalism.

There have been moves towards national financial regulations: the requirement by the EU for hedge funds and other funds to have a regula-tory presence in Europe, the UK’s rules for bank liquidity, which insist that banks hold their cash and near-cash in the UK, and the Volcker Rule, which would split banks into those taking big market risks and those taking customer deposits.

There are some signs of fractures in the G20, with differences for example on the bank tax, which Australia, Canada and others oppose. If some members go one way and some go the other, there’s a risk that the G20 will lose its spe-cial position. The self-appointed G20 already suffers from a legitimacy deficit. But it’s too big to be an effective negotiating forum.

Simultaneous Special Session 3: Financing economic recovery: protecting open markets

The group actively debated why, how and when the oil-producing countries should diversify economy from oil revenues. Despite their wealth, some oil-producing countries are growing at a slower rate than non-producing countries, which is causing social and political problems. Oil-producing countries cannot grow their economies in a sustainable manner with swinging oil prices. Diversification, all agreed, is critical for oil econo-mies, because dependency on one commodity is risky. Oil producing countries need to assess their competitive and comparative advantage to achieve economic and social diversification. Productivity and competitiveness are prerequi-sites. Capital is available, technical capacity can be bought, however, structural changes are most dif-

ficult to achieve. Diversification, however, should not favour industries reliant on oil, gas, electricity or water subsidies; it should also be regionally coherent. Countries should not all develop the same industries, so that when an economic crisis hits, the whole region suffers. Finally, diversifi-cation should not be a job creation programme; industries should be economically sustainable programmes.

So far, government talks much but do little in terms of diversification. Governments do not want to lose power; they compete rather than complement the private sector and populations don’t trust their leaders. That is why structural changes are very important. A change in mindset is required to move from a paradigm of wealth

creating wealth to one of work creating wealth. Privatising state companies will engage the pop-ulation and get them involved in diversification. Countries can also diversify by updating their commercial and labour laws, and investing in education.

Nation building is a prerequisite to economic diversification and stability. Societies needs to be involved, understand their rights and not seeking favours from government. The political structure for diversification is very important. Government creation of jobs is superficial diversification and does not provide long-term solution. Knowledge, structure and attitude need to change. There was agreement that diversification is a continuous, multidimensional process.

(l–r): David Scott, Director of Economic Affairs, Executive Affairs Authority, UAE; Mahmoud Gebril Elwarfally, Director General, Libyan Economic Development Board; Mark Fuller (Chair), Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, The Monitor Group; Hossein Ghazavi, Economic Vice Governor, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran; Dr Mohammad Al Zuhair, Professor of Finance and International Business, Kuwait University

(l–r): Daniel Price, Partner, Sidley Austin LLP, and former Assistant to the President and Deputy National Security Advisor for International Economic Affairs, US; Durmuş yılmaz, Governor, Central Bank of Turkey; Tom De Swaan (Chair), Chairman, Van Lanschot Bankiers; willem Buiter, Chief Economist, Citigroup; Zhao Changhui, Chief Country Risk Analyst, Export-Import Bank, Director, Asia-Africa Development and Exchange Society

Simultaneous Special Session 4: Diversifying economies in the Middle East and building stability


KEY ADDRESSES

UK Service Chiefs Address Britain’s Defence Choices

Address on Turkey’s Strategic TrajectoryTurkey’s Foreign Minister, Ahmet Davutoğlu, addressed the IISS on 29 January 2010. Professor Davutoğlu is associated with a vision for a more ambitious and extroverted foreign policy for Turkey that blends that country’s traditional orientation and alignment towards the United States and Europe with closer engagement of neighbours in the Middle East and the Caucasus as well as larger powers further afield. In his address he advanced the argument that Turkey stood at the intersection of strategically significant regions and had the capacity to develop as a major centre of strategic gravity in its own right. The address was chaired by IISS Director of Studies Adam Ward.

Israel’s Strategic Environment SurveyedDaniel Ayalon, Deputy Foreign Minister of the State of Israel, a former ambassador to the United States and previously adviser to former prime minister Ariel Sharon, addressed the IISS on 8 February. His talk, chaired by IISS Director of Studies Adam Ward, ranged over Israeli assessments of Iran’s nuclear activities and strategic intentions, the prospects for the resumption of meaningful dialogue between Israel and the Palestinians, US–Israeli relations and the wider security dynamics in the Middle East.

Following the general election of 6 May 2010, the United Kingdom has embarked on a wide-ranging strate-gic defence and security review that is intended to establish what place it should occupy in international security matters; the threats to its interests it perceives and needs to respond to; the missions its defence forces should be able to undertake; and the defence and security capa-bilities that this will require. In the months preceding the election, the IISS became a centre of debate on these and other questions, with all three Service Chiefs of the UK armed forces giving distinctive addresses to the Institute.

On 18 January, General Sir David Richards, the Chief of the General Staff, spoke on ‘Future Conflict and Its Prevention: People and the Information Age’. Richards sought to describe a form of future conflict that even between states would have irregular characteris-tics, such as the use of proxies and asymmetrical capabilities, and in which an excessive reliance on sophisticated and expensive equipment

was to be avoided. Speaking on 15 February, the Chief of the Air Staff, Air Chief Marshall Sir Stephen Dalton, Spoke on ‘Dominant Air Power in the Information Age’, pointing to the indispensability of air and space superiority in conflict and highlighting the adaptability of air power. In the final presentation on 24 March, the First Sea Lord, Admiral Sir Mark Stanhope, in a

speech entitled ‘Delivering Defence Today and Tomorrow: The Maritime Contribution’ set out the centrality of naval forces to missions which the UK is likely to continue to seek to undertake. General the Lord Guthrie, former Chief of the General Staff, chaired the first of these meetings, with the remainder chaired by IISS Director of Studies Adam Ward.

General Sir David Richards

Ahmet Davutoğlu

Daniel Ayalon

Air Chief Marshall Sir Stephen Dalton Admiral Sir Mark Stanhope


KEY ADDRESSES

Keynote Address by India’s Foreign Secretary India’s Foreign Secretary, Ms Nirupama Rao, delivered an address at the IISS on ‘Perspectives on Foreign Policy for a 21st Century India’ on 22 February. She said that although India has emerged as the third-largest economy in Asia, it needed to grow at 8–10% every year for the next 20 years to eradicate poverty. She added that the G20 process was a more representative mechanism to manage global economic and financial issues, but called for urgent reform of the UN Security Council with India as a permanent member. Ms Rao said the Copenhagen Accord could contribute to negotiations on the Kyoto Protocol and on long-term cooperation, but it could not be a substitute for them. She also said India was concerned about the possibility of nuclear terrorism, with ter-rorists seeking to undermine the country’s ‘sovereignty, security and economic progress, aided and abetted by forces beyond [its] borders’. The greatest threat to peace and stability in South Asia emanated from ‘the shelter terrorists find in the border of Afghanistan–Pakistan and in Pakistan itself’.

The Foreign Secretary emphasised that any integration process in Afghanistan should be Afghan-led, including only those who abjured violence, gave up armed struggle and terrorism and were willing to abide by the values of democracy, pluralism and human rights as enshrined in the Afghan Constitution. For the Afghan Government to take greater ownership of security, it was imperative that the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) were properly trained and equipped. Whereas Pakistan had, under pressure, taken steps to fight terrorism, these were ‘selective’. She repeated India’s demand that Pakistan ‘should bring the perpetrators of the Mumbai terrorist attack to justice expeditiously and in a transparent manner. It should act decisively to dismantle the infrastructure of terrorism on its territory.’ And, finally, she noted that there was ‘both competition and collaboration in the dynamic equilibrium of our relationship with China’. Nirupama Rao, India’s Foreign Secretary

Jean-Marie Guehenno

Karl Eikenberry

Peacekeeping and StabilityOn 10 February, Jean-Marie Guehenno, who between 2000 and 2008 served as UN Undersecretary-General for Peacekeeping, addressed the IISS on the policy challenges in this area. During his term at the UN, there was a quantum increase in peacekeeping activities, with about 130,000 personnel involved in 18 missions around the world. The last 15 years have been marked interna-tionally by a wide variety of civil conflicts, state-to-state confrontations and external interventions, leading to the need for much greater clarity regard-ing how peacekeeping operations, stabilisation missions and peacebuilding efforts need to be organised, resourced, directed and sustained in their many various military, political and economic components. Adam Ward, Director of Studies at the IISS, chaired this event.

US Ambassador to Afghanistan Gives Progress ReportKarl Eikenberry, the US Ambassador to Afghanistan on 23 March spoke in a closed session convened by the IISS Afghanistan Security Programme on the implementation of the recalibrated strategy towards Afghanistan being pursued by the US and its allies. The audience consisted of IISS experts, UK defence and foreign policy officials, and senior journalists. Adam Ward, Director of Studies, chaired the event.


south asia programme

Third IISS–MEA Foreign Policy Dialogue held in LondonThe IISS hosted its third foreign policy dialogue with the Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) in London on 22 February 2010. This unique series of dialogues, begun in 2007, facili-tates wide-ranging exchanges between senior officials and experts from India and the UK on key strategic and political issues. The keynote address was delivered by the Foreign Secretary of India, Ms Nirupama Rao, just days before the resumption of talks with her Pakistani counter-part after nearly 15 months.

Following the keynote address, three sessions took place: Countering Terrorism & Extremism (discussing varied perspectives in South Asia and Europe); Nuclear Non-proliferation & Disarmament (discussing FMCT, CTBT, the NPT Review conference & ‘global zero’); and Climate Change & Security (discussing perspec-tives post-Copenhagen summit). Navdeep Suri, Joint Secretary (Public Diplomacy), Ministry of External Affairs led the Indian team at the dia-logue.

Later this year, the inaugural IISS–Afghanistan Foreign Ministry dialogue and the IISS–Sri Lankan Foreign Ministry dialogue are expected to take place, along with the third round of the IISS–Pakistan Foreign Ministry Dialogue.

Round Table DiscussionsThree round table discussions on South Asia were held. On 16 April, Col. (Retd) Jack Gill, Professor, Near East–South Asia Centre, National Defence University, US, spoke on ‘Tigers in the Trenches: Sri Lanka’s Counter-insurgency & Counter-terrorism Campaign’. On 15 March, General (Retd) Jehangir Karamat, former Chief of Army Staff, Pakistan, and a good friend of the IISS, spoke on ‘Trends in Civil–Military Relations in Pakistan’. On 10 March, Jaswant Singh, former Indian Cabinet Minister for Finance, External Affairs & Defence spoke on ‘Jinnah: India-Partition-Independence’.

Session 1: Nigel Inkster, IISS; Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, IISS; and Praveen Swami, Associate Editor, The Hindu

Session 3: John Ashton, UK Special Representative for Climate Change; Nigel Inkster, IISS; and Sunita Narain, Director, Centre for Science and Environment (CSE)

General (Retd) Jehangir KaramatJaswant Singh

Session 2: Professor Amitabh Mattoo, Professor of International Politics, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi; Sir Hilary Synnott, IISS; and Mark Fitzpatrick, IISS


non-proliferation and disarmament programme

IISS–IDSA New Delhi workshop On 8 March, the IISS and the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) co-hosted a one-day workshop at IDSA headquarters in New Delhi as part of the ‘Perspectives on nuclear and radiological security’ project managed by the IISS Non-proliferation and Disarmament Programme. A joint paper on the potential benefits of UK–India cooperation in this area emerged from papers pro-duced for the workshop as well as from remarks made by other participants, and is to be found on the IISS website.

Discussion MeetingOn 1 February, the IISS Non-proliferation and Disarmament Programme hosted a discussion meeting featuring Joseph Cirincione, President of the Ploughshares Fund, who spoke on ‘Assessing Obama’s Nuclear Strategy: Is the Prague Promise Fading?’ Cirincione predicted that the coming months would see a series of successes in Obama’s nuclear policy strategy. An article based on the talk was published in the April–May 2010 edition of Survival.

ICNND ReportAt Arundel House on 4 February, Gareth Evans, Co-chair of the International Commission on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament (ICNND) pre-sented the recently released Commission report on ‘Eliminating Nuclear Threats: A Practical Agenda for Global Policymakers’. The aim of the report was to reinvigorate international efforts on nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament, in the context of both the 2010 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference, and beyond.

Discussion MeetingOn 1 April, Mark Fitzpatrick, Director of the Non-proliferation and Disarmament Programme chaired a lively discussion session at which Brigadier General (Retd) Feroz Khan from the US Naval Postgraduate School gave a presentation on ‘Emerging Nuclear Postures in South Asia’.

Joseph Cirincione, President of the Ploughshares Fund The Hon . Gareth Evans, Co-chair of the ICNND

Brigadier General (Retd) Feroz Khan and Mark Fitzpatrick

Participants at the IISS–IDSA workshop on nuclear and radiological security, New Delhi


TransnaTional ThreaTs and PoliTical risk

New Projects and Discussions Between January and March, Nigel Inkster, Director of Transnational Threats and Political Risk, and Virginia Comolli, Research Analyst, were partially seconded to the Ministry of Justice to take part in a project entitled ‘Security and the Legal Domain’ with the aim of scanning, identifying and assessing future developments in the legal terrain and their impact on UK national security over the next five–15 years.

On 18 January, the Transnational Threats and Political Risk programme hosted the visit of a group of Fellows from several African countries as part of the Peace and Security Fellowships for African Women and the Conflict, Security and Development Group (CSDG)/ Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), Peace and Security MA Studentships and Mentoring Programme at King’s College London. The Fellows, who hold mid-ranking positions in government, military and civil societies in their respective countries, had the opportunity to meet with several colleagues at the IISS and to gain a better understanding of the work done by the Institute in terms of research, conferences and publications.

On 5 February, Col (Retd) Christopher Langton, Senior Fellow for Conflict and Defence Diplomacy hosted an address by Dušan Spasojević, the Serbian Secretary of State for Defence Policy. Mr Spasojević offered his views on ‘Serbia’s contribu-tion to regional and extra-regional stability’.

Nigel Inkster delivered a lecture on ‘Transnational Islamist terrorism: Is it Here to Stay?’ at the International Relations Society, London School of Economics on 23 February.

On 2 March, Christopher Langton chaired a teleconference on ‘Balkan countries and their future participation in European security’. The dis-cussion was attended by IISS staff, representatives from Croatia, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and the UK.

On 8 March, Nigel Inkster chaired a discussion meeting on ‘US–China relations’ where the guest of honour was Frank Lavin, Chairman, Public Affairs Practice, Edelman Asia Pacific and Former Under Secretary for International Trade, US Department of Commerce.

On 25 March, Ellen Laipson, a Member of President Obama’s Intelligence Advisory Board, and President and CEO, Henry L Stimson Centre, offered a public address on ‘Intelligence reform in the USA’. The event was chaired by Nigel Inkster. Ellen Laipson is also a member of the IISS Council.

Christopher Langton was invited by the Romanian National Defence College in Bucharest to participate in two panels as part of one of the College’s training courses. The discussion, on 13 April, focused on ‘Security Challenges and EU policies in the Eastern Neighborhood’ and ‘EUBAM Moldova & Ukraine – Underpinning a Solution to Frozen Conflicts?’

(l–r): Nigel Inkster and Frank Lavin

(l–r): Dušan Spasojević and Christopher Langton

Ellen Laipson

On 18 May, Nigel Inkster took part in a panel discussion organised by the Global Strategic Forum together with Stefan Halper, author of The Beijing Consensus.

On 24 May, Nigel was invited by Pax to speak at a workshop co-hosted with Google to discuss conflict prevention tools based on information technology and cooperation among foreign policy bodies, academia and media groups.


I ISS FOCUS ON AFGHANISTAN

Focus on AfghanistanOn 19 January, Col (Retd) Christopher Langton, Senior Fellow for Conflict and Defence Diplomacy, hosted Antonio Maria Costa, Executive Director of the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) for the lunch of the UNODC report ‘Bribery and Corruption in Afghanistan’.

Christopher Langton was invited to attend a conference on Afghanistan in London organised by BAAG in cooperation with the Canadian High Commission on 26 January. The conference was convened to ensure that Afghans working in the fields of humanitarian and development assist-ance, human rights, governance and rule of law have an opportunity to share their views with policymakers in the lead up to the International Conference in London on 28 January. The event was co-hosted by the United Kingdom, the United Nations and the Government of Afghanistan.

On 29 January, IISS experts involved in the IISS Afghanistan Secuirty Programme offered a special briefing for press and members on ‘Assessing The Outcome of the London Conference’. The panel, chaired by Sir Hilary Synnott, Consulting Senior Fellow, comprised Dr Dana Allin, Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs, Oksana Antonenko, Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, Dr Mamoun Fandy, Senior Fellow for Gulf Security, Nigel Inkster, Director for Transnational Threats and Political Risk, Christopher Langton, Senior Fellow for Conflict and Defence Diplomacy, and Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, Senior Fellow for South Asia.

The IISS hosted a discussion on 1 February around the book My Life with the Taliban, the mem-oirs of Mullah Abdul Salam Zaeef, translated from Pashto and edited by journalists Felix Kuehn and Alex Strick van Linschoten.

On 11 February, Christopher Langton deliv-ered a lecture at a day-long case-study on peace support operations in Afghanistan as part of the FCO/Chevening course on Peacekeeping and International Capacity-Building. The lecture, which took place in Bradford, focused on Western

military engagement, and the British experience. The course was attended by academics, security officials, police officers and civilians from ten dif-ferent countries, including China, Vietnam, India, Ukraine and Argentina.

On 10 March, Nigel Inkster gave a briefing for Corporate Members on ‘Assessing the Impact of the New Afghan Strategy on Global Terrorism’. It was the threat from transnational terrorism that led to the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan, and the continuing NATO/ISAF operation is justified by the need to prevent al Qaeda from re-establishing a base there. Depending on how the next phase of the Afghan campaign plays out, how likely is it that Afghanistan might revert to being a global

Antonio Maria Costa, Executive Director, United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime

(r–l): Dr Mamoun Fandy, Oksana Antonenko, Nigel Inkster, Sir Hilary Synnott, Col Christopher Langton, Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, and Dr Dana Allin .

(l–r): Felix Kuehn and Alex Strick van Linschoten

security threat? This issue was explored by Nigel Inkster.

Nigel Inkster also spoke on 12 March at a RUSI event on ‘Pakistan, Its Neighbours and Regional Security’. His presentation analysed the security implications and implications for transnational ter-rorism of recent Pakistani Army operations against the Pakistani Taleban in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas.

On 15 April, Christopher Langton moderated a telephone conference on ‘A Comparison of Views and Practices on Counter-narcotics: South America and Afghanistan’. The discussion brought together experts and practitioners from the UK, Afghanistan and Colombia

Manama Dialogue 2010The 7th IISS Regional Security Summit: The Manama Dialogue will be convened in the Kingdom of Bahrain from 3 to 5 December 2010.

The 7th meeting will draw together the highest con-centration to date of policymakers involved in regional security.


russia–eurasia programme

Georgian–Russian Dialogue website

IISS Eurasia Security SeminarsOn 22 January, Arda Inal-Ipa, Centre for Humanitarian Programmes, Sukhum, Abkhazia and Paata Zakareishvili, Institute for the Study of Nationalism and Peace, Tbilisi spoke on ‘The Georgian–Abkhaz conflict – Is it all about Russia?’. This seminar provided a unique opportunity to hear views from influential Georgian and Abkhazian experts on the post-August war situation in the Caucasus. This seminar discussed how Georgians and Abkhazians per-ceive Russia’s role during and after the August conflict and the importance of the Georgian–Abkhazian confidence-building process as the key prerequisite for the lasting peace in the South Caucasus.

On 29 April, Dr Bobo Lo, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for European Reform (CER), spoke on ‘China’s role and objectives in Central Asia’. In this seminar, Dr Bobo Lo examined the complex relationship between Russia, China and the United States in Central Asia, particularly after 2001. Dr Lo addressed China’s objectives in the region through the lens of geopoliti-cal competition between the great powers. This included discussion of the increasing US military presence in Central Asia; Russian economic engage-ment in the region, and China’s use of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to promote pan-regionalism in Central Asia. The meeting was attended by senior policy experts, business representatives and key NGO representa-tives. Listen to the speech and read an event summary at http://www.iiss.org/events-calendar/2010-events-archive/april-2010/chinas-role-and-objectives-in-central-asia/

On 10 May, Roland Dannreuther, Professor of International Relations, University of Edinburgh, spoke on ‘Terrorism in Moscow; Insurgency in the North Caucasus’. Professor Dannreuther provided an overview of how the terrorist attack on the Moscow metro on 29 March is connected with the insur-gency and radical Islamist movements in the North Caucasus. The speaker examined political, economic as well as ideological factors which are driv-ing the increase in violence in the North Caucasus. He also assessed to what extend the radicalisation of the young generation of Caucasus people relates to similar trends in Europe and other parts of the world. Finally discussions

focused on what policies could we employed to help mitigate the grow-ing threat of violence and what international experience can be relevant to Russia’s case, of developing a new comprehensive approach in tackling ten-sions within Islamic communities and their sense of isolations within a wider sociality and the political elite in Russia.

Listen to the speech and read an event summary at http://www.iiss.org/events-calendar/forthcoming-events/terrorism-in-moscow-insurgency-in-the-north-caucasus/

As part of an EU-funded project entitled ‘Georgian–Russian Dialogue on Post-August War Challenges’, the IISS Russia and Eurasia programme has developed a website dedicated to examining the regional consequences of the August 2008 war and the future challenges and prospects for Russian–Georgian relations. The IISS started the project on the Georgian–Russian Dialogue in November 2009, and this new website contains its own expert analysis on the August 2008 war, alongside an examination of its regional implications and the role of inter-national bodies in conflict-resolution processes in the South Caucasus.

Intended as a comprehensive resource for policy experts involved in the region, it includes timelines, listings of relevant official government, NGO and independent expert publications, links to external resources and much more.

A special section is devoted to EU monitoring, funding, conflict- management and conflict-resolution activities in Georgia. Also included are regular updates on the Geneva talks between Russian and Georgian represen-tatives, spearheaded by the EU, OSCE and UN.

The new IISS website is also launching a ‘Caucasus Security Insight’ forum, which allows leading Georgian, Russian and Western experts to share their views and analyses of the war’s legacy and consequences, and of the latest developments between Russia and Georgia.

Visit the new website at http://www.iiss.org/programmes/russia-and-eur-asia/about/georgian-russian-dialogue/

(l–r): Oksana Antonenko and Dr Bobo Lo

(l–r): Roland Dannreuther and Oksana Antonenko


EUROPEAN SECURIT Y / CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY SECURIT Y

Adam ward and Admiral Mark P . Fitzgerald

Visit of German Armed Forces Staff College

workshop NATO’s Maritime StrategyOn 25 March, the IISS, with the support of NATO’s Public Diplomacy Division, organised a workshop to analyse NATO’s future maritime strategy and the role of the maritime domain in the context of the new strategic concept due to be unveiled later in 2010. The case of the Horn of Africa has drawn attention to NATO’s forays into the area of maritime security. Intensive international maritime efforts to limit the threats to international shipping transiting both the Gulf of Aden and the Horn of Africa and with the importance of maintain-ing the free and unhindered movement of trade at sea in light of the fragile state of the global economy are of significant concern. However, Allied naval forces have to serve a variety of purposes, ranging from traditional power pro-jection and sea control to supporting crisis response operations and defence diplomacy, as well as maritime security operations. With the drafting of both NATO’s new strategic concept and NATO’s new maritime strategy currently under way, the mix of traditional and novel approaches requires in-depth reflection on maritime strategy. To further this goal, the workshop brought together some 40 experts and policymakers and featured a keynote speech to a wider audience of IISS members and press by Admiral Mark P Fitzgerald,

Commander, US Naval Forces Europe, Commander, US Naval Forces Africa, Commander, Allied Joint Force Command Naples, who spoke on ‘NATO’s Strategic Concept – Fundamentals for the Future Alliance: Military Strategy’.

Members and faculty of the German General Staff Course visited the IISS on 1 April for briefings on regional security issues. Sir Hilary Synnott, Consulting Senior Fellow, IISS, analysed the security situation in Afghanistan and in par-ticular the role of Afghanistan’s neighbours. Dr Toby Dodge, Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East, IISS, briefed the group on the future role of Iran in

regional security. Mark Fitzpatrick, Senior Fellow for Non-proliferation, IISS, provided an assessment of Iran’s nuclear programme and its likely future trajectory. The presentations were followed by an hour-long discussion with the course participants. The meeting was chaired by Dr Bastian Giegerich, Research Fellow, European Security, IISS.

workshop on Climate Change & Energy Security: Overlapping PrioritiesOn 16 March 2010, the IISS hosted a roundtable workshop entitled ‘Climate Change & Energy Security: Overlapping Priorities’ at the Hyatt Regency Capitol Hill, in Washington DC. This was the third workshop of the Transatlantic Dialogue on Climate Change and Security; two previous work-shops had explored the intersections between climate change and water and food security (in July and November, 2009, respectively). The participants at the March workshop were a diverse selection of over 40 representatives from government agencies, research and academic institutions, and NGOs.

The programme featured four panel discussions, each examining dif-ferent aspects of energy security: (1) Resource Conflict and the Geopolitical Competition for Energy Supplies, (2) Linking Energy Security and Climate Change, (3) Policy Trade-Offs between Climate and Energy Security – Transatlantic Differences, and (4) International Governance of Energy and Climate – The Outlook After Copenhagen.

Concerns about energy security and climate change are strategic con-cerns common to governments around the world, but the relative priorities given to them are dependent upon variables such as each country’s politi-cal system, economic development, natural resource allotment, and energy dependence.

Participants were divided on how closely related concerns about cli-mate change were to concerns about energy security, and a sharp debate

ensued. Some presenters directly linked climate change, energy depen-dence, and national security, stating that continued reliance on fossil fuels creates ‘an unacceptably high threat level from a series of converging risks’ that include conflicts over fuel resources, destabilisation driven by ongo-ing climate change, and threats to critical infrastructure. Others, however, argued that climate change is as much a security risk as other transnational factors, like religion or ethnicity, and governments should not raise it to the same priority as energy security. Though there was disagreement among participants about how closely related the problems of climate change and energy security were, it became clear that the solutions were linked. Energy and climate security are two major and separate problems, but most partic-ipants agreed that they shared a common solution: a move to a low-carbon economy.

Politicians and policymakers should not believe that there are any short-term ‘magic bullets’ that will instantly solve each of these problems. Instead, this workshop proved that there were some small steps that can be taken to incrementally improve both energy and climate security. Given the long-term strategic uncertainty presented by both energy dependence and climate change, it would be prudent to take preventative actions before climate change or energy dependence force policymakers into far more costly and damaging actions.


Middle east and Gulf securit y ProGraMMe

IISS workshop – Iranian Politics and Foreign Policy Decision-making after the Green Movement Professor Ali Ansari, School of History, University of St Andrews, gave the opening address at the conference. His talk put the Green Movement into his-torical perspective, against the background of the 1979 revolution, the Iran’s ‘liberal moment’ and the rise of President Mohammad Khatami and the ori-gins of Iran’s current ruling elite.

During session one, ‘The Green Movement as a political force: its ideol-ogy, organisation and future prospects’, Ian Black, Middle East Editor, The Guardian and John Simpson, BBC World Affairs Editor, who were in Tehran during the Green Movement detailed its origins, organisational capacity and possible future trajectory. George Lawson, Department of International Relations, London School of Economics and Political Science, then discussed the future possibilities of the Green Movement, what is required for a social movement in a dictatorship to trigger or drive meaningful and sustainable change.

In session two entitled ‘Iran’s ruling elite after the Green Movement’, Professor Anoush Ehteshami, School of Government & International Affairs, Durham University and Con Coughlin, Executive Foreign Editor, The Daily Telegraph examined the effects that the Green Movement had on Iran’s ruling elite, detailing how the number of people running Iran has narrowed, both in terms of personnel but also ideological outlook. The speakers agreed that this process was not best understood as a ‘coup’ by the Revolutionary Guard but as a process which had its origins in the revo-lution itself.

Session three on ‘Iranian foreign policy decision making and the inter-national community after the Green Movement’ was addressed by Dr Dana Allin, International Institute for Strategic Studies, Sir Richard Dalton, Chatham House and Nader Mousavizadeh, International Institute for Strategic Studies. This session pulled together the conclusions of the first two sessions and sought to gauge the effect that the movement and the regime’s response to it has had on Iran’s foreign policy decision making. It then examined the inter-national community’s policy towards Iran after the Green Movement. The whole day was organised and chaired by Dr Toby Dodge, Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East, IISS.

(l–r): George Lawson, Ian Black, Toby Dodge and John Simpson

(l–r): Con Coughlin, Toby Dodge and Professor Anoush Ehteshami

(l–r): Dr Dana Allin, Sir Richard Dalton, Toby Dodge and Nader Mousavizadeh

Professor Ali Ansari

(l–r): Dr Dana Allin and Sir Richard Dalton


I ISS–MIDDLE EAST

Opening of the IISS–Middle East Office

open and explained what the establishment of the IISS in Bahrain meant for the kingdom and for the region.

‘The office will be the centre of IISS scholarship in the region,’ he said. ‘Independent, high-quality research and analysis – not to mention candid dis-cussions with visiting dignitaries, thinkers, business leaders and Fellows – will be of tremendous value to not only us at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in helping to inform our thinking and future strate-gies on geopolitical and strategic issues, but also to many other ministries, government agencies, aca-demic institutions and the wider public.

‘Second, the IISS office can add momentum to the crucial work undertaken in the Manama Dialogue, now a fundamental pillar of regional security diplomacy, and the Bahrain Global Forum to be launched tomorrow evening and which will explore more closely the relationship between eco-nomics and security, a timely issue both for today and most certainly for the coming years.

‘And third, I have very high hopes that the IISS will serve as an effective incubator for some of our bright young diplomats, our future ambassadors and decision-makers, through secondment oppor-tunities, immersing themselves in particular areas of specialisation and expertise that are instrumen-tal as we embark on a new era of diplomacy, in a new international environment for foreign policy that caters to an accelerating, globalised world.’

François Heisbourg, Chairman of the IISS, thanked Shaikh Khalid Bin Ahmed Al Khalifa for his remarks, and on behalf of the IISS council and trustees, thanked the Kingdom of Bahrain for the

‘This will be not just the IISS Bahrain office, but more importantly, the IISS–Middle East office in Bahrain, serving the whole region and indeed the wider world interested in this region.’ So said Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS, launching the latest endeav-our for the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). With headquarters in London, the organisation has long-standing regional offices in Washington and Singapore. However, having launched the high-profile Manama Dialogue secu-rity conference and the Bahrain Global Forum on geo-economics in recent years, the IISS needed to establish a major presence in the Middle East.

The new office was opened at a reception in the Kingdom of Bahrain on Thursday 14 May. IISS staff, trustees and council members welcomed Bahrain government representatives and members of the Bahraini diplomatic and business communi-ties at the newly completed offices on the 14th floor of the GBCORP Tower in the Bahrain Financial Harbour.

In his opening remarks Dr Chipman intro-duced the IISS, its publications and research work, its international conference activities, the mission of the IISS office in Bahrain and the ambitions for its first year of operations. He also thanked the Kingdom of Bahrain for its support.

HE Shaikh Khalid Bin Ahmed Bin Mohammed Al Khalifa, Foreign Minister of Bahrain, was joined by HE Shaikh Khalifa Bin Abdullah Al Khalifa, the Head of the National Security Agency, to inaugurate the IISS–Middle East office. Shaikh Khalid Bin Ahmed declared the office officially

support it has provided to the IISS in its interna-tional mission.

‘I look forward to greater engagement of the IISS throughout the region,’ he said. ‘I now declare the office opening complete.’

For further information please contact: International Institute for Strategic Studies – Middle East 14th floor, GBCORP Tower, Bahrain Financial Harbour,Manama, Kingdom of BahrainTel. +973 1718 1155, Fax. +973 1710 0155Email [email protected]

(l–r): François Heisbourg, Chairman of the IISS; Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS; and Shaikh Khalid Bin Ahmed Bin Mohammed Al Khalifa, Foreign Minister of Bahrain

The new office is in the GB Corp tower in Manama

Shaikh Khalid Bin Ahmed Bin Mohammed Al Khalifa talksto the media at the new IISS–Middle East office


i iss–asia

New AppointmentsOh Puay Fong joined IISS–Asia in January 2010 as Manager. She is responsible for the day-to-day administration of the IISS Asia office and is a member of the team based in various IISS offices that organises the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue. She will also support fundraising efforts for IISS–Asia research programmes and wider IISS activities and will be involved in developing the Institute’s regional membership.

Ho Yi Jian joined IISS–Asia in January 2010 as Project Coordinator. He is heavily involved in organising the Shangri-La Dialogue and other IISS events, including IISS–Asia seminars and workshops

Dr Ellen Frost

Oh Puay Fong

(l–r): Tim Huxley, Amitav Acharya and ANM Muniruzzaman

Maritime Confidence-Building Measures Meeting

Asia, spoke on ‘CBMs, preventive diplomacy and maritime security in Asia’ in the concluding session.

Seminar on Obama’s First yearOn 10 February, Dr Ellen Frost, a 38-year veteran of Washington’s foreign policy community and now a visiting fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and an adjunct research fellow at the National Defense University’s Institute of National Strategic Studies, spoke in the IISS–Asia seminar series, which is sponsored by the Australian Department of Defence. Countering the notion that the US is in irreversible decline, Dr Frost argued that the same combination of politics, populism and personality that made President Obama’s first year so difficult would ultimately work to his advantage. She extended this viewpoint to her analysis of US policy in Asia, where she saw both continuity with the previous administration’s policies and selective improvements.

Building on a call by French defence minister Hervé Morin in his address at the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue in 2008 and with support from the French defence ministry’s Directorate for Strategic Affairs (DAS), on 26 January, IISS–Asia, the Paris-based Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS) and the French branch of the Council for Security and Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific, jointly convened a day-long international seminar on the theme ‘Enhancing Asian Maritime Security and Confidence-Building Measures’. The seminar brought together maritime security experts from the Asia-Pacific and beyond to discuss contemporary trends affecting regional maritime security, particu-larly in terms of naval modernization including the potential proliferation of submarines, and the related question of how maritime confidence-building measures might be enhanced. Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director of IISS–

The IISS, with support from the MacArthur Foundation’s Asia Security Initiative, organised two consecutive one-day workshops in Singapore on 14–15 April concerned with strategic and security issues in the Asia-Pacific region. On 14 April the first in a series of Intersessional Workshops on ‘Asia-Pacific Security and Defence Policies’, aimed at taking up key IISS Shangri-La Dialogue themes assessed the Dialogue’s role in developing discussion of the future of America’s security role in the Asia-Pacific, emerging powers’ regional security roles, security cooperation and security community-building in the Asia-Pacific, defence policy and military modernisation, and the transnational security agenda in the region. The workshop also looked towards possible future developments in the Shangri-La Dialogue’s agenda.

On Thursday, 15 April the second in a series of workshops (following one held in Washington DC in November 2009) on ‘Major Power Dynamics in the Asia-Pacific: Implications for Small- and Medium-sized Powers’ focused on responses within the broad region to the evolving strategic roles of the United States, China, Japan and India. It investigated the defining geopolitical assumptions among policymakers and international relations thinkers about great power competition, the reactions of smaller states to major powers’ mili-tary programmes, the types of security order that lesser powers wish to see materialise, and the challenges ahead for small and medium powers as the regional power dynamics change.

In all, 35 participants from Asian countries, the US, Australia and Europe, including many leading experts on international relations and security and defence policies in the Asia-Pacific region, participated in the workshops.

Asia Security Initiative workshops

I ISS–uS


Masoud Barzani

Masoud Barzani, President of the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq, spoke on developments in Iraq and the Kurdistan Region at a dis-cussion hosted by the IISS–US on 27 January.

Pakistan’s war within

On 28 January, C. Christine Fair, Assistant Professor at the Center for Peace and Security Studies, Edmund A Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University, spoke on her article, ‘Pakistan’s War Within’ (co-written with Seth Jones), in the December 2009–January 2010 issue of Survival. Andrew Parasiliti, Executive Director, IISS–US, and Corresponding Director, IISS–Middle East, moderated the discussion.

US–Bahrain Relations

Houda Nonoo, Ambassador of the Kingdom of Bahrain to the United States, spoke on ‘Developments in Bahrain and US–Bahrain Relations’ at an IISS–US Ambassador’s Forum luncheon, hosted by the Ambassador at the Embassy of Bahrain on 13 January.

China and Cyber PowerNigel Inkster, IISS Director of Transnational Threats and Political Risk, spoke on ‘China and Cyber Power’ on 17 March. Andrew Holland, Programme Manager and Research Associate, Transatlantic Dialogue on Climate Change and Security, IISS, moderated the discussion.

Building Peace After warOn 18 February, Mats Berdal, Professor of Security and Development at Kings College London, and IISS Senior Consulting Fellow, spoke on his Adelphi Book, Building Peace After War. Andrew Parasiliti, Executive Director, IISS–US, and Corresponding Director, IISS–Middle East, moderated the discussion.

Back to the Brink in Bosnia?On 5 March, Christopher Chivvis, Political Scientist, RAND Corporation, and Adjunct Professor, European Studies Program, School of Advanced and International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, spoke on his article, ‘Back to the Brink in Bosnia?’ in the February–March 2010 issue of Survival. Andrew Parasiliti, Executive Director, IISS–US, and Corresponding Director, IISS-Middle East, moderated the discussion.

Houda Nonoo

Masoud Barzani Andrew Parasiliti and C . Christine Fair

Andrew Parasiliti and Mats Berdal Nigel Inkster and Andrew Holland

Andrew Parasiliti and Christopher Chivvis

I ISS–uS


Adelphi 410Towards Nuclear Zero by David Cortright and Raimo Väyrynen

This Adelphi examines practical steps for achieving progress towards disar-mament, assessing the challenges and opportunities associated with achiev-

ing a world without nuclear weapons. It places the current debate over abolition in the context of urgent non-prolifer-ation priorities, such as the need to prevent nuclear weapons from falling into the hands of extremist regimes and terrorists. It distils lessons from states that have already given up nuclear programmes and from the end of the Cold War to suggest ways of countering

the efforts of Iran and North Korea to acquire nuclear weapons. For the longer term, it offers policy recom-mendations for moving towards a reduced global reliance on nuclear weapons.

To order this publication, and for more details go to http://www.iiss.org/publications/adelphi-papers/adelphis-2010/towards-nuclear-zero/

Arctic Security and Climate Change

On 27 April, Wegger Chr. Strømmen, Ambassador of Norway to the United States, addressed the IISS–US Ambassadors’ Forum on ‘Arctic Security and Climate Change’. Ambassador Strommen also briefed IISS members on the maritime delimitation agreement between Norway and the Russian Federation, signed earlier that same day. Dr Andrew Parasiliti, Executive Director, IISS–US, moderated the programme. In attendance was Dr John Chipman, IISS Director-General and Chief Executive.

Iran’s Nuclear Programme

Mark Fitzpatrick, IISS Senior Fellow for Nonproliferation, spoke on ‘Iran’s Nuclear Programme’ at the IISS–US on 14 April. Dr Andrew Parasiliti, Executive Director, IISS–US, and Corresponding Director, IISS–Middle East, moderated the programme.

Taking the Field: Obama’s Nuclear Reforms

On 29 April, Joseph Cirincione, President of the Ploughshares Fund, spoke on his article, ‘Taking the Field: Obama’s Nuclear Reforms’, in the April–May 2010 issue of Survival. Michael Elleman, IISS Senior Fellow for Missile Defence, moderated the discussion.

Ambassador Klaus SchariothOn 16 March, after an IISS roundta-ble workshop on ‘Climate Change and Energy Security: Overlapping Priorities’, Dr Klaus Scharioth, Ambassador of the Federal Republic of Germany to the United States, spoke to a group of approximately 40 IISS Members and invited guests. During his speech, Ambassador Scharioth said that the US should learn from Germany’s efforts to ‘Kill three birds with one stone’. He said that moving to a low-carbon econ-omy can address climate change, increase energy security, and spur job creation. Dr Klaus Scharioth

Andrew Parasiliti and Mark Fitzpatrick

Andrew Parasiliti, John Chipman and wegger Chr . Strømmen

Michael Elleman and Joseph Cirincione

New Adelphi


PUBLICATIONS

On Monday 10 May 2010 the IISS launched its latest Strategic Dossier Iran’s Ballistic Missile Capabilities: A net assess-ment.

The dossier was introduced by Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS. Mark Fitzpatrick, Senior Fellow for Nuclear Non-proliferation, IISS and Michael Elleman, Senior Fellow for Missile Defence, IISS–US, answered questions.

In tandem with progress in its nuclear programme, Iran is making robust strides in developing ballistic missiles, with the apparent aim of being able to deliver nuclear warheads well beyond its borders. Iran’s modifications of the North Korean No-dong missile, resulting in the longer range Ghadr-1, and its recent success in testing locally produced space-launch vehicles and two-stage solid-propellant mis-siles have heightened concerns. Yet the worst-case scenario projected at the end of the twentieth century about Iran being able to develop an interconti-nental ballistic missile capable of striking the United States within five years has not materialised.

The IISS Strategic Dossier on Iran’s Ballistic Missile Capabilities: A net assess-ment aims to contribute to the policy debate about Iran’s strategic challenges by establishing a shared understanding of the missile programmes. Produced

by an international team of experts, the dossier offers the most detailed infor-mation available in the public domain about Iran’s liquid- and solid-fuelled missiles and its indigenous production capabilities. The dossier also analyses the military and strategic effectiveness of Iran’s potential arsenal, including both conventional and non-conventional warheads. By comparing Iran’s progress with that of missile-development programmes elsewhere, the dos-sier assesses the types of missiles Iran might try to develop in future, how long it could take, and what observable trends and indicators will allow other nations to monitor Iranian progress and to plan appropriate responses.

To order this publication, and to see the launch go to http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-dossiers/irans-ballistic-missile-capabilities/

New Adelphi

All IISS publications can be purchased online at www.iiss.org/publications

Adelphi 409Climate Conflict by Jeffrey Mazo

Climate change has been a key factor in the rise and fall of societies and states from prehistory to the recent fighting in the Sudanese state of Darfur. It drives instability, conflict and collapse, but also expansion and reorganisation. The ways cultures have met the climate challenge provide object lessons for how the modern world can handle the new security threats posed by unprecedented global warming.

Combining historical precedents with current thinking on state stabil-ity, internal conflict and state failure suggests that overcoming cultural, social, political and economic barriers to successful adaptation to a changing climate is the most important factor in avoiding instability in a warming world. The countries which will face increased risk are not necessarily the most fragile, nor those which will suffer the greatest physical effects of cli-mate change.

The global security threat posed by fragile and failing states is well known. It is in the interest of the world’s more affluent countries to take measures

Iran’s Ballistic Missile Capabilities: Press Launch

Co-editors Michael Elleman and Mark Fitzpatrick

Dr Jeffrey Mazo at the launch

both to reduce the degree of global warming and climate change and to cush-ion the impact in those parts of the world where climate change will increase that threat. Neither course of action will be cheap, but inaction will be cost-lier. Providing the right kind of assistance to the people for whom and places where it is most needed is one way of reducing the cost, and understand-ing how and why different societies respond to climate change is one way of making that possible.

To order this publication, and to see the launch go to http://www.iiss.org/whats-new/iiss-podcasts/adelphi-webcasts/climate-conflict/


Publications

Skeletal AgendaAll events will take place at the Intercontinental Hotel, 7–9 Chemin Du Petit-Saconnex, Geneva 1209The Plenary Sessions (Presentations and Discussion) will be on the record. Break-Out Groups are off the record

Friday 10 September 2010Afternoon Delegates Arrive in Geneva; Registration18:30–19:30 Opening Reception 19:30–22:00 Keynote Address and Opening Dinner Power Shifts and Security

Saturday 11 September 201008:30–08:45 Opening Remarks08:45–10:00 First Plenary Session The United States and China:

Visions of Global Order10:00–10:30 Coffee Break10:30–11:45 Second Plenary Session Security Systems and Institutions: Regional

Perspectives 11:45–13:00 Third Plenary Session Issue of the Day 13:00–14:45 Lunch

15:00–16:30 Simultaneous Break-Out Groups (First Sitting)

Group 1: The EU After the Lisbon Treaty: A Credible Global Security Actor?

Group 2: Does India Have a Grand Strategy? Group 3: Is Indonesia Outgrowing ASEAN?Group 4: Iran, the US and the Future of the

Middle East Group 5: How Can a South American Security System be

Built? Group 6: Towards a New Framework for the Southern

Caucasus?Group 7: International Law and International Security 16:30–17:00 Coffee Break 17:00–18:30 Simultaneous Break-Out Groups (Second

Sitting)Group 8: Can US Global Leadership be Sustained?Group 9: Yemen, Somalia and Beyond: State Building as

Counter-TerrorismGroup 10: Has Turkey Rejoined the Middle East? Group 11: Military Capabilities: New Trends in Sea, Land

and Air Power

Group 12: Addressing the Drugs Trade as an International Security Threat

Group 13: Nuclear Security Group 14: The Global Defence Economy: Who Spends

What and Why? 18:30–19:30 Reception19:30–20:15 Discussion Panel Defining NATO’s Future: Afghanistan and

Beyond20:15–22:30 Dinner

Sunday 12 September 201008:45–10:00 Fourth Plenary Session Strengthening the Global Arms-Control and

Non-Proliferation Regime 10:00–10:30 Coffee Break10:30–11:45 Fifth Plenary Session Towards a Comprehensive Energy Security 11:45–13:00 Sixth Plenary Session Cyberpower and Strategy13:00–13:15 Envoi13:15–14:30 Closing Luncheon

The 8th IISS Global Strategic Review

‘Global Security Governance and the Emerging Distribution of Power’10–12 September 2010, Geneva, SwitzerlandThe Global Strategic Review (GSR) is the most cosmopolitan of the major international conferences of the IISS, bringing together approximately 400 leading strategists from 40 countries. The GSR this year will seek to reach conclusions about the policies required for the effective

management of the global security system in an era of increasingly distributed power.

The keynote address on the theme of Power Shifts and Security will be delivered by former US Secretary of State Dr Henry Kissinger.

Military Balance 2010 Book Launch In February 2010 the IISS launched The Military Balance 2010, the annual assessment of the military capabili-ties and defence economics of 170 countries world-wide. Dr John Chipman, IISS Director-General and Chief Executive, introduced the book and provide a detailed press statement and a panel of IISS experts answered questions.

The Military Balance 2010 contains region-by-region analysis of the major military and economic developments affecting defence and security policies

and the trade in weapons and other military equipment. Comprehensive tables detail major military training activities, UN and non-UN deployments, and give data on key equipment holdings and defence economics, as well as defence-expenditure trends over a ten-year period.

The Military Balance 2010 contains an essay on the defence industry in India. It includes an updated Chart of Conflict, a wallchart showing cur-rent conflicts around the world, with selected supporting tables. Military Balance examines key issues including the conflict in Afghanistan; the development of Iraq’s security forces; the debate over NATO’s strate-gic concept and operations in Afghanistan; an update on EU military operations; the progress of reforms in the Russian armed forces; military

developments in Africa, including conflicts and the progress of the African Standby Force initiative; and developments in China’s People’s Liberation Army. The book examines wider defence developments in East Asia and Australasia; South and Central Asia; Latin America and the Caribbean; Europe; the Middle East and North Africa; and North America. The launch was streamed live and is available to view at http://www.iiss.org/publications/military-balance/the-military-balance-2010/military-balance-2010-press-launch/

John Chipman at the launch of The Military Balance 2010


OBITUARIES

Olivier Debouzy (1960–2010)

Olivier Debouzy, who has died suddenly at the age of 49, made a singu-lar contribution to defence and security policy. He brought intelligence and insight to his work as a Research Associate at the IISS, and later as a member of the Institute’s Council and Trustees.

These qualities were apparent from our first meeting, when he was a student in his early 20s. I was struck by his intelligence, the acuteness of his interest in defence problems, the mastery he already displayed, and the depth of his thoughts on security matters. In these respects he was a typical alumnus of the Ecole Nationale d’Administration, an institution of advanced learning that prepares students for prominent roles in the political, economic and administrative life of France.

As the years went on, Olivier’s qualities won him the confidence of officials endowed with defence responsibilities. He was appointed to two bodies entrusted to produce White Papers on French defence policy. He was also a member of the Commissariat à l’Energie Atomique, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the International Bar Association.

Sidney Bearman (1925–2010)

It is with deep regret that the IISS has to report the death of one of its most respected alumni. For 24 years Sidney Bearman edited Strategic Survey, the Institute’s annual review of international affairs, turning it into an essential tool for government policymakers, journalists, academ-ics and business leaders around the world.

Sidney Bearman was born in Cambridge, Massachusetts, on 15 August 1925. After serving in the Second World War and subsequently in the military government in Korea, he attended the first veterans’ class at Brown University, graduating magna cum laude with honours in History in 1950. He subsequently attended the Russian Institute at Columbia University until 1952 when Dr Barnaby Keeney, previously with the OSS and later president of Brown, recruited him to join the newly organised CIA in Washington DC as an analyst working on Russian affairs.

After a four-year tour with the US Embassy in Bern, Switzerland, and the Sino-Soviet split, he took over the CIA’s China section, with other analysts from various government agencies. In 1968–69 he was at the East Asian Research Centre at Harvard on a sabbatical designed to facilitate his efforts to develop new approaches to solving the situation in Vietnam

Olivier was also a barrister at law who practised in Paris and Brussels, and a co-founder of the boutique business law firm August & Debouzy. On top of these commitments, he also found the time to write several books (Anglo-French Nuclear Co-operation: Perspectives and Problems; The Presence and Rôle of the United States in Europe: A History; Western European Nuclear Forces: A British, a French and an American View) and articles. After reading the 2007 Wall Street Journal article by Henry Kissinger, Sam Nunn, George Shultz and William Perry, Olivier and I decided to collaborate on an article for the French quar-terly journal Commentaire, discussing the pros and cons of eliminating nuclear arms. Olivier brought to this task his thorough knowledge of recent international events, the accuracy of his judgements and the exactitude of his arguments. I have fond memories of working with him on this article. His death deprives not just France, but also the wider community of international defence and security experts, of his wisdom and insights; but his ideas will live on in spite of his loss.

François de RoseFormer Vice-President of IISS (1986–1995)

without expanding a war that he strongly opposed. He served as Chief of Division, Far Eastern Affairs, from 1969 to July 1973, and retired from the US Government in 1975 after serving two years as an Attaché at the US Embassy in London.

He and his wife of 65 years, Dorothy (nee Beresnack) travelled widely before and after settling in London, where he joined the IISS, first as a Fellow and later as Editor of Strategic Survey. For eight years he also edited Asian Security, a similar journal, for the Research Institute for Peace and Security in Tokyo.

For more than two decades the Bearmans’ mews house in Chelsea was a centre of vigorous, but always amicable, discussion and debate among their many friends from London’s artistic, theatrical, legal and diplomatic circles. A lover of chamber music, jazz, opera, and tennis, he was an avid reader and critic and always willing to tell it ‘as it is’ After 28 years in London, the Bearmans retired to La Jolla California where they gave their wholehearted support to La Jolla’s vibrant musical life, while keeping open house for their many friends from London and around the world.

Sidney Bearman died in La Jolla on 4 May 2010. He is survived by his wife Dorothy, his four children, Richard, David, Peri and Peter; nine grandchildren and three great-grandchildren.

Fleur de VilliersChairman of the IISS Trustees

Documents

The International Institute for Strategic Studies · PDF fileThe International Institute for Strategic Studies The International Institute for Strategic Studies, ... Suzlon Energy