Upload
dangthien
View
219
Download
2
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
IHS CHEMICALPresentation
InstitutoInstituto PetroquPetroquímicoímico ArgentinoArgentino
ih
InstitutoInstituto PetroquPetroquímicoímico ArgentinoArgentino-- An Overview of the An Overview of the Petrochemical Industry Petrochemical Industry --
ihs.com05 May 2015
Rina Quijada
© 2015 IHS
Rina QuijadaIHS Chemical Sr Director Latin America
Presentation Name / Month 2015
AGENDAAGENDA
•ECONOMIC OVERVIEW•ENERGY OVERVIEW•THE INDUSTRY•THE INDUSTRY •CLOSING REMARKS
© 2015 IHS 2
A gradual acceleration in the global economyWorld Outlook/ April 2015
• Global growth will gradually pick up, supported by lower oil prices and accommodative monetary policies.y p
• Consumer spending and homebuilding lead the US acceleration.
• The Eurozone’s delayed recovery is gaining momentum, aided by monetary stimulus, euro depreciation, and pent-up demand.
• China’s growth will slow to 6.5% in 2015, restrained by imbalances in credit, housing, and industrial markets., g,
• Several emerging markets are in recession—Russia, Venezuela, Argentina, and Brazil.
• Growth paths in emerging markets will depend on structural reforms that raise productivity and allocate capital more efficiently.
© 2015 IHS 3
Economic Perspectives for 2015
© 2015 IHS, Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
• Regional growth is now estimated at 0.6%, provided that Mexico grows 2.6%, with Colombia and Peru growing 3.5% and 4.4% respectively. Argentina, Brazil and Venezuela expected to report disappointing GDP
f i 2015performance in 2015. • Significant challenges expected. Although we expect lower oil prices,
global economic growth is slowing down. • Volatile commodity prices with continued downward pressure (agricultural
products, metals and minerals, oil and gas) along with inadequate fiscal polices and financial uncertainty will affect economic performance in the yregion.
• Currency devaluation should encourage exports, benefiting export oriented industries across the region. However, it can also drive inflation g ,up, constraint local demand and consumer confidence, and cause social unrest as people will see their income losing purchasing power.
• High inflation may also reverse the social advances the region has made
© 2015 IHS
High inflation may also reverse the social advances the region has made in the last 10 years.
GDP 2014 Latin America Main Economies
ArgentinaArgentina99%%
OthersOthers12%12% 99%%
PeruPeru
VenezuelaVenezuela5%5%
12%12%
OthersOthers45%45%
BrazilBrazilMexicoMexico21%21%
33%%
MercosurMercosur5555%%
4040%%
ColombiaColombiaChileChile4%4%
21%21%
Total GDP LatinTotal GDP Latin America = US$ America = US$ 5.72 Trillion (2010 US$)5.72 Trillion (2010 US$)Total LA Population = 623 million in 2014Total LA Population = 623 million in 2014
6%6%
© 2015 IHS
Total LA Population 623 million in 2014Total LA Population 623 million in 2014
** Mercosur includes Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Venezuela From IHS Database
Economic Growth in Latin America
© 2015 IHS, Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
GDP G th %GDP G th %
6,06,0
8,08,0Latin AmericaLatin America WorldWorld USAUSA
GDP Growth, %GDP Growth, %
2,02,0
44,,00
--2,02,0
0,00,0
--4,04,020082008 20092009 20102010 20112011 20122012 20132013 20142014 20152015 20162016 20172017 20182018
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018A ti 3 1 0 1 9 5 8 4 0 8 2 9 0 5 1 4 2 0 3 5 4 0Argentina 3.1 0.1 9.5 8.4 0.8 2.9 0.5 -1.4 2.0 3.5 4.0Brazil 5.2 -0.3 7.6 3.9 1.8 2.7 0.1 -1.1 0.7 1.9 2.5Chile 3.3 -1.0 5.8 5.8 5.5 4.2 1.9 2.8 3.5 3.8 4.3Colombia 3.5 1.7 4.0 6.6 4.0 4.7 4.6 3.5 3.7 4.2 4.1
© 2015 IHS
Mexico 1.4 -4.7 5.1 4.0 4.0 1.4 2.1 2.6 3.6 4.0 4.1Peru 9.1 1.1 8.4 6.5 6.0 5.7 2.4 4.4 5.0 4.9 4.7
Outlook for the Region
© 2015 IHS, Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
• Slower GDP growth for the region in 2015
P i V l tilit ill ti• Price Volatility will continue
• Lower crude oil prices will affect countries that depend on its income to balance budgets.
• Currency exchange will continue to affect local resin pricesaffect local resin prices.
© 2015 IHS
Presentation Name / Month 2015
Global Energy Overview
Rina Quijada
© 2015 IHS 8
jIHS Chemical Sr Director Latin America
Crude Oil vs. Natural GasPresentation Name / Month 2015
15025Natural Gas, Dollars Per MMBtu Crude, Dollars Per Barrel
120
150
20
25
9015
30
60
5
10
0009A J O10A J O11A J O12A J O13A J O14A J O15A J O16A J O
© 2015 IHS 9
Natural Gas WTI Brent
Extreme Energy Differentials Create Opportunities and Presentation Name / Month 2015
Risks – March 2014
20Constant 2012 Dollars Per MMBtu
Brent Crude & US Energy Prices
15
20 Brent Crude & US Energy Prices
10
5
02000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
© 2015 IHS 10
Brent Crude USGC Light Naphtha Henry Hub Gas Ethane
Extreme Energy Differentials Create Opportunities and Presentation Name / Month 2015
Risks – March March 20152015
20Constant 2012 Dollars Per MMBtu
Brent Crude & US Energy Prices
15
20
10
5
02000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
© 2015 IHS 11
Brent Crude USGC Light Naphtha Henry Hub Gas Ethane
Production of Oil and Natural GasSelected Countries – USA, Russia and Saudi Arabia
Energy in Quadrillion BTU
50
40
45
50
25
30
35
USA Gas
USA Oil
Russia Gas
10
15
20Russia Oil
KSA Gas
KSA Oil
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
5
© 2015 IHS
Production of Oil and Natural GasU.S. Surplus Takes Stocks to Record Levels
© 2015 IHS
Production of Oil and Natural GasNatural Gas Stocks Also Healthy
U.S. NATURAL GAS UNDERGROUND STORAGE VS PRICE
7,00
8,00
3500
4000 2013Billion Cubic Feet US$ Per MMBtu
2014
4 00
5,00
6,00
2000
2500
3000
2,00
3,00
4,00
1000
1500
2000
0,00
1,00
0
500
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A
© 2015 IHS
NG Storage NG Price (Henry Hub)
Source: EIA
Presentation Name / Month 2015
Regional Energy Overview
Rina Quijada
© 2015 IHS 15
jIHS Chemical Sr Director Latin America
Oil and Gas - Winners and Losers
© 2015 IHS, Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
Oil Production in Oil Production in Latin AmericaLatin America
500Total Exports
(Billion (Billion US$) US$)
2014 2014 -- Oil and Gas Exports vs Total ExportsOil and Gas Exports vs Total Exports
MexicoMexico2727%%All OthersAll Others
9%9%
ArgentinaArgentina7%7% 398
400
Total Exports
Oil & Gas
ColombiaColombia99%%
225
300
VenezuelaVenezuelaBrazilBrazil2424%% 86
5874 83 100
200
VenezuelaVenezuela24%24%
1226
58
614293321
30
© 2015 IHS
Total in Total in 20132013: : 1010..94 94 MMBPDMMBPD
Oil and Gas - Winners and Losers
© 2015 IHS, Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
Electricity Generation by Sources Electricity Generation by Sources 20142014
NuclearNuclear2%2% HydroelectHydroelectOilOil4%4%
2%2%
OthersOthers1010%%
BrazilBrazil
HydroelectHydroelect1212%%
CoalCoal12%12%
OilOil1212%%
NuclearNuclear44%%
OthersOthers10%10%
HydroelectHydroelect6767%%
CoalCoal
Gas Gas 1313%%
1212%%
MexicoMexico4%4% Gas Gas
52%52%
© 2015 IHS
Oil and Gas - Winners and Losers
© 2015 IHS, Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
B il N h h S i iB il N h h S i i 20152015Brazil Naphtha Scenario in Brazil Naphtha Scenario in 20152015BrazilBrazil EthyleneEthylene RawRaw MaterialsMaterials Brazil Petrochemical Naphtha Imports in Brazil Petrochemical Naphtha Imports in 20142014
Total of Total of 44..8 8 MMMM--tonstons
Ref GasRef Gas3%3%
EthanolEthanol55%%
1%1% 55%%
ArgeliaArgelia
VenezuelaVenezuela
E/PE/P13%13%
4242%%88%%77%%
3%3%1%1%
ArgentinaArgentina
USAUSA
PP
1010%%
9%9%PeruPeru
MoroccoMorocco
SpainSpainNaphthaNaphtha
79%79%1515%%
The NetherlandsThe Netherlands
OthersOthers
Total Naphtha Demand inTotal Naphtha Demand in 20142014 was overwas over 88 MMMM--tonstons
© 2015 IHS
Total EthyleneTotal Ethylene CapacityCapacity: 3.95 : 3.95 MMTAMMTATotal Naphtha Demand in Total Naphtha Demand in 2014 2014 was over was over 8 8 MMMM tons tons
Over Over 5050% of this fulfilled with imported naphtha% of this fulfilled with imported naphtha
Oil and Gas - Winners and Losers
© 2015 IHS, Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
B il N h h S i iB il N h h S i i 20152015Brazil Naphtha Scenario in Brazil Naphtha Scenario in 20152015Brazil Ethylene Raw Brazil Ethylene Raw MaterialsMaterials Brazil Petrochemical Naphtha Imports in Brazil Petrochemical Naphtha Imports in 20142014
Total of Total of 44..8 8 MMMM--tonstons
Ref GasRef Gas3%3%
EthanolEthanol55%%
1%1% 55%%
ArgeliaArgelia
VenezuelaVenezuela
E/PE/P13%13%
4242%%88%%7%7%
3%3%1%1%
ArgentinaArgentina
USAUSA
PP
10%10%
99%%PeruPeru
MoroccoMorocco
SpainSpainNaphthaNaphtha
79%79%1515%%
The NetherlandsThe Netherlands
OthersOthers
Total Naphtha Demand in 2014 was over 8 MMTotal Naphtha Demand in 2014 was over 8 MM--tonstons
© 2015 IHS
Total EthyleneTotal Ethylene CapacityCapacity: 3.95 : 3.95 MMTAMMTATotal Naphtha Demand in 2014 was over 8 MMTotal Naphtha Demand in 2014 was over 8 MM tons tons
Over 50% of this fulfilled with imported naphthaOver 50% of this fulfilled with imported naphtha
Presentation Name / Month 2015
Currency Overview
Rina Quijada
© 2015 IHS 20
jIHS Chemical Sr Director Latin America
Latin America Dealing with Currency Exchange Risk in 2015
Currency Devaluation in Latin America 2013 2015Currency Devaluation in Latin America 2013-2015
12/15/2013 3/15/2014 6/15/2014 9/15/2014 12/15/2014 3/15/2015 4/15/2015 % Dev.
Argentina 6.32 7.92 8.13 8.40 8.55 8.79 8.87 40%
Brazil 2.32 2.35 2.23 2.35 2.69 3.26 3.06 32%
Chile 529.5 572.0 554.8 590.6 617.5 639.0 614.0 16%
Colombia 1931 2045 1877 1995 2405 2662 2551 32%
Daily Referencial Market Rates
Mexico 12.93 13.25 12.98 13.21 14.52 15.40 15.29 18%
Peru 2.76 2.81 2.79 2.86 2.96 3.10 3.12 13%
© 2015 IHS
Mexican Polyolefins Average Prices
28 000
30.000 1.900 MEX $US$
24.000
26.000
28.000
1.500
1.700
18.000
20.000
22.000
1.300
12 000
14.000
16.000
900
1.100
Mexico is not as affected by devaluation as Brazil. Up to
10.000
12.000
700 oct-14 nov-14 dic-14 ene-15 feb-15 mar-15 abr-15
April 2015, there is 9% difference between price in US$ versus price decrease in MEX pesos (26% vs 17%).
© 2015 IHS
Ave. US$ Ave. Pesos Ave. Pesos w/o Devaluation
Brazilian Polyolefins Average Prices
6.700 2.300
BRA R$US$
5.700 1.900
2.100
3 700
4.700
1 300
1.500
1.700
2.700
3.700
900
1.100
1.300
From October 2014, while prices in US$ are down by 19% prices in BRA reais actually increased by 1%
1.700 700
900
oct-14 nov-14 dic-14 ene-15 feb-15 mar-15 abr-15
19%, prices in BRA reais actually increased by 1% due to te steep devaluation of the Brazilian currency
© 2015 IHS
Ave. US$ Ave. Reais Ave. Reais w/o Devt.
Presentation Name / Month 2015
THE INDUSTRY
Rina Quijada
© 2015 IHS 24
jIHS Chemical Sr Director Latin America
Presentation Name / Month 2015Customers of the Customers of the Chemical IndustryChemical IndustryChemical Industry Value ChainNatural Natural ResourcesResources
Mining, Drilling, Refining & Gas
Basic Chemicals
• Automotive /Transportation
Chemical Intermediat
esFormulated Products / Performance Materials
Processing Olefins(ethylene, propylene, butylene)
• Consumer products
• Packaging• Building &
construction
Commodities
• Plastics & Engineering Resins− Extruded films, pipe, profiles,
coatings, sheet, foams, sheet− Blow-molded parts
I j ti ld d t
• Oil
Aromatics(benzene, toluene,
xylenes)
Chlor-Alkali
construction• Recreation /Sport• Industrial• Medical
Pharmaceuticals
− Injection molded parts− Composites
• Synthetic Fibers• Rubber Products• Paints & Coatings
• Gas• Coal• Minerals
Chlor Alkali(chlorine, caustic
soda)
Methanol
• Pharmaceuticals• Personal care• Textiles• Electrical/
Electronics
Differentiated Commodities
a ts & Coat gs• Adhesives & Sealants• Lubricants• Water Treatment products• Cleaning Products
Industrial Chemicals• Renewables
Others(e.g., ammonia, phosphorous)
Electronics• Aircraft /
Aerospace• Business
equipmentTechnical
Specialties
• Industrial Chemicals• Flame Retardants• Many others…
© 2015 IHS 25
phosphorous)
Basic Chemical Global Statistics - 2014 Presentation Name / Month 2015
90200Million Metric Tons Capacity Utilization, %
80
90
160
200
60
70
80
120
40
50
0
40
400
© 2015 IHS 26
Capacity Demand Utilization
Base Chemical Capacity Additions: Presentation Name / Month 2015
2010 – 2020 = 231 Million Metric Tons
80Million Metric Tons
60
80
MethanolMethanol PropylenePropylene
BenzeneBenzeneParaxyleneParaxylene
EthyleneEthylene40
MethanolMethanol pypy
ChlorineChlorine
20
0Methanol Propylene Ethylene Paraxylene Chlorine Benzene
© 2015 IHS 27
2010/15 2015/20 2010/20
Ethylene Cash Cost Comparison Presentation Name / Month 2015
16002011 2013 2015US$ / Metric Ton
1200
1600
800
400
0Saudi Arabia
U.S. Ethane
Western Canada
China CTO Saudi Arabia
Northeast Asia
West Europe
China MTO
© 2015 IHS 28
Ethane Naphtha Naphthap
Naphtha
Ethylene Cash Cost Comparison Presentation Name / Month 2015
16002013 2015US$ / Metric Ton
1200
1600Brent Crude Natural Gas
Year ($/Bbl) ($/MM Btu)2011 111 4.14
800
2013 109 3.762015 48 3.26
400
0Saudi Arabia
U.S. Ethane
Western Canada
China CTO Saudi Arabia
Northeast Asia
West Europe
China MTO
© 2015 IHS 29
Ethane Naphtha Naphthap
Naphtha
Presentation Name / Month 2015
Investment Drivers Vary By Region By Value Chain
• North America (USA)Leverage low cost natural gas based
chemicals into investments in ethylenechemicals into investments in ethylene, propylene and methanol based derivatives.
Invest to establish export channels to market that exceed historical norms
• Middle East (Saudi Arabia)Moderated investment pace, diversified
feedslate to support downstream market d l t d ti d i d t i ldevelopment and continued industrial expansion well beyond ethylene chemistry
• North East Asia (China)St d ti i t t f dStrong domestic investment focused on reducing import dependencies.
Leverage coal to chemicals technology near term
© 2015 IHS 30
Presentation Name / Month 2015
Investments Seek A Sustainable Advantage
• Energy & Feedstocks60-70% of the costs of chemical
production; competitive advantage in energy and feedstock costs is key
Raw Material Raw Material & Energy & Energy
CostsCosts• Technology & ScaleEnable competitive production costs,
capital cost savings, economies of Demand Demand G th &G th &
Technology Technology gscale, high performance products.
• Proximity & Access to MarketsP i it t d d th ti l
Growth & Growth & Access to Access to MarketsMarkets
& & Economies Economies
of Scaleof Scale
Proximity to demand growth essential without distinct cost or technology advantage. Trade access is also key.
© 2015 IHS 31
Presentation Name / Month 2015
Top 5 Countries Adding Base Chemical Capacity f231 Million Tons from 2010 to 2020
120Million Metric Tons
80
100
120
Top five will add nearly 75% of base chemical capacity. China will dominate new
20
40
60 capacity, adding 45% of total
0
20
China United States
Saudi Arabia
S. Korea India
Chlorine Paraxylene Benzene
Methanol Propylene Ethylene
© 2015 IHS 32
Presentation Name / Month 2015
Regional Trade Is Critical To Success
• Trade is an essential element of basic chemical supply chainsbasic chemical supply chains
• Low cost countries such as the United States and Saudi Arabia
ill t i i lwill export increasing volumes
• On-purpose technology will change propylene trade patterns5 Countries Adding 75% of Base Chemical g y
• Significant investment in ships, ports, and infrastructure is needed to support increasing
Capacity: 2010 to 2020 (231 MM Metric Tons)
needed to support increasing trade volumes
© 2015 IHS 33
Presentation Name / Month 2015
Polyethylene Market Outlook
Rina Quijada
© 2015 IHS 34
jIHS Chemical Sr Director Latin America
Latin America PE DemandLatin America PE DemandMillion Metric TonsMillion Metric Tons PercentPercent
7%7%88%%9%9%1010%%
77 008,08,099,,00
10,010,0
44%%5%5%6%6%7%7%
44,,005,05,066,,0077,,00
0%0%11%%22%%3%3%
0 00 01,01,02,02,033,,00
0%0%0,00,020102010 20112011 20122012 20132013 20142014 20152015 20162016 20172017 20182018 20192019 20202020
LDPE Demand LDPE Demand LLDPE Demand LLDPE Demand HDPE Demand HDPE Demand
© 2015 IHS
CapacityCapacity Demand Growth %Demand Growth % GDP % ChangeGDP % Change
Ethylene Equivalent Trade Continues To ExpandPresentation Name / Month 2015
40 0Ethylene Net Equivalent TradeMillion Metric Tons
20,0
40,0Net Exports
0,0
-20,0
-40,000 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
North America South America West Europe Middle East
Net Imports
© 2015 IHS 36
North America South America West Europe Middle EastIndian Sub. Northeast Asia Southeast Asia Others
NAM PE Capacity Addition ListLDPELDPE LLDPELLDPE HDPEHDPE
20152015--2016201620152015--20162016 20152015--20162016
201720172017201720172017 20172017
20182018--2019201920182018--20192019 20182018--20192019
Ascent Ascent ((BraskemBraskem))
Ascent Ascent ((BraskemBraskem))NovaNova
ShellShell
© 2015 IHS
ShellShell Badlands Badlands NGLNGL
Appalachian Appalachian ResinResin
Presentation Name / Month 2015
Polypropylene Market Outlook
Rina Quijada
© 2015 IHS 38
jIHS Chemical Sr Director Latin America
PP America’s Supply & Demand
Million Metric TonsMillion Metric Tons Operating Rate Operating Rate
8080%%
100100%%
12,012,0
1515,,00
4040%%
6060%%
6,06,0
9,09,0
AAGR AAGR 1414--19 19 Americas =Americas =22..77%%
00%%
20%20%
0,00,0
3,03,0 11..4 4 MMTMMT
--20%20%--3,03,020092009 20102010 20112011 20122012 20132013 20142014 20152015 20162016 20172017 20182018 20192019
© 2015 IHS
Domestic DemandDomestic Demand Net ExportsNet Exports Total Capacity Total Capacity Operating RateOperating Rate
Polypropylene: Americas Trade B lBalance
1 51 5
Net Trade, Million Metric TonsNet Trade, Million Metric Tons
11,,00
1,51,5
00 00
00,,55
--00,,55
00,,00
--1,01,00909 1010 1111 1212 1313 1414 1515 1616 1717 1818 1919
S th A i N t T dS th A i N t T d N th A i N t T dN th A i N t T d NAM E tNAM E t SAM I tSAM I t
© 2015 IHS
South America Net TradeSouth America Net Trade North America Net TradeNorth America Net Trade NAM Exports NAM Exports -- SAM ImportsSAM Imports
Who Will Announce PP in North America?
RefineryRefineryEthyleneEthyleneyy
© 2015 IHS © 2015 IHS, Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
NorthNorth American American PropylenePropyleneNorth America On Purpose Propylene Capacity Additions LatestNorth America On Purpose Propylene Capacity Additions LatestNorth America On Purpose Propylene Capacity Additions Latest North America On Purpose Propylene Capacity Additions Latest UpdateUpdate
Company Location 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020+ TotalTh d M t i T
BASF US Gulf Coast 250 250 500Dow Freeport, TX 375 375 750Enterprise Mont Belvieu, TX 362 363 725Ascend Alvin TX 586 587 1173
Thousand Metric Tons
Ascend Alvin, TX 586 587 1173Formosa Point Comfort, TX 600 600Williams Redwater, Alberta 250 250 500RexTac Odessa 400 400
Firm: 0 375 737 363 1436 1487 250 4648
Other Developments:Other Developments:•• Flint Hills purchases the Flint Hills purchases the PETROLOGISTICS PETROLOGISTICS Propylene PDH facility. Propylene PDH facility.
Firm: 0 375 737 363 1436 1487 250 4648
•• BASF evaluating “Methane to Propylene” unit for 2019. BASF evaluating “Methane to Propylene” unit for 2019. Estimated capacity at close to 500 Estimated capacity at close to 500 ktonsktons with a world scale 1.5 with a world scale 1.5 mmtmmt methanol methanol plant.plant.
•• LYB announces PO/TBA unit for 2019LYB announces PO/TBA unit for 2019
© 2015 IHS
LYB announces PO/TBA unit for 2019. LYB announces PO/TBA unit for 2019. This would consume approximately 300 This would consume approximately 300 ktonsktons of propylene.of propylene.
•• OxeaOxea to build 2to build 2--EH facility with start up in 2016. EH facility with start up in 2016.
North America PP Projects
Company Location 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Company Location 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Rextac Odessa, TX 370 (Thousand Metric Tons)
Unknown(s)* US Gulf Coast 200 220 95Unknown* Canada 440
Total: 0 0 0 200 595 535Total: 0 0 0 200 595 535* Reported projects not fully verified or approved and not included in IHS capacity database* Reported projects not fully verified or approved and not included in IHS capacity database
New Market Player LikelyNew Market Player Likelyy yy y
© 2015 IHS 43
Presentation Name / Month 2015
Closing Comments
Rina Quijada
© 2015 IHS 44
jIHS Chemical Sr Director Latin America
Conclusions
• Short term debottlenecks most likely source of new PP in Americas
• Oversupply in Asia to redirect exports to other emerging regions including the Americas
• Cyclical peak of profitability ahead in North America should drive newCyclical peak of profitability ahead in North America should drive new PP investment matched with PDH or GTP
• South American margins likely to improve also though Asian imports and finished goods could provide a capand finished goods could provide a cap
© 2015 IHS
The New Normal
© 2015 IHS, Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
• Geopolitical situations have less impact on crude oil prices.• Supply/Demand balance over rules global unreast• Supply/Demand balance over rules global unreast.• Opec ‘s production less responsive to price levels.• Top Largest Oil producer in the World. • Top Largest Natural Gas producer in the World.• Oil dynamics have Changed.
N T h l i i d l ti i P t h i l• New Technologies improve and revolutionizes Petrochemical production globally.
• Significant challenges expected. Although we expect lower oil i l b l i th i l i dprices, global economic growth is slowing down.
© 2015 IHS
Presentation Name / Month 2015
The Impact of Energy At The Extremes…Conclusions
• Basic chemicals and derivatives markets adjust to “new energy”markets adjust to new energy
• Price setters have lower cost…prices decline seeking new steady statesteady state
• Integrated margins for low-cost producers decline, some high-cost producer margins improvecost producer margins improve
• Approved “advantaged” projects advance; new projects may pausepause
• Demand declines followed by demand surge; trade patterns shift; potential upcycle in
© 2015 IHS 47
shift; potential upcycle in ethylene and vinyl's
© 2015 IHS, Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
Warren Buffett’sa e u ett s3 Principles for Investments:
•Cash•Emotions•Information© 2015 IHS
•Information
IHS CHEMICALPresentation
InstitutoInstituto PetroquPetroquímicoímico ArgentinoArgentino
ih
InstitutoInstituto PetroquPetroquímicoímico ArgentinoArgentino-- An Overview of the An Overview of the Petrochemical Industry Petrochemical Industry --
ihs.com05 May 2015
GRACIASGRACIAS
Rina Quijada
© 2015 IHS
Rina QuijadaIHS Chemical Sr Director Latin America