INTEGRATED FOOD SECURITY PHASE CLASSIFICATION€¦ · The August/September 2015 Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) report is the second detailed food security and

INTEGRATED FOOD SECURITY PHASE CLASSIFICATION

REPUBLIC OF SOUTH SUDAN FULL REPORT AUGUST-SEPTEMBER 2015

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OVERVIEW The August/September 2015 Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) report is the second detailed food security and nutritional analysis report produced by the South Sudan Integrated Food Security Classification in the year 2015. The IPC process started with state level IPC analyses for the 8 states of Eastern Equatoria, Western Equatoria, Lakes, Warrap, Western Bahr el Ghazal, Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Upper Nile and Jonglei in late August and early September followed by a 12-day national-level analysis workshop in Nimule from 8th to 19th September. The Nimule workshop was open to other Food Security and Livelihoods Cluster members who are not directly involved in the IPC but had some information and analysis to contribute. The workshop was attended by at most 94 participants from 16 organizations which included government ministries, UN agencies, and NGOs. On 2nd October, the IPC draft report received a technical. Thereafter, the RSSFSC, NBS and MAFCRD presented to the Deputy Minister for MAFCRD. On the 22nd October 2015, the GRSS endorsed and released the IPC Report. The IPC report was released by the Minister for Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, in the presence of Minister of Agriculture, Minister of Health, Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Chairperson of RRC publicly endorsed the IPC results in a press release and followed by a press conference.

KEY MESSAGES An estimated 3.9 million people (3.1 million in Crisis and 800,000 in Emergency) or 34% of the population

are classified as severely food and nutrition insecure and are unable to meet their food needs in September.

This is an 80% increase compared to the same period last year. Of extreme concern is the estimated 30,000 people

in Unity State who are experiencing Catastrophe and are likely to deteriorate into famine in the absence of

urgent and immediate humanitarian access. Although the August-September period typically marks the start of

green harvests and reflects an improving situation from the peak-lean season, the long-term effects of the conflict

coupled with high food prices, erratic rainfall patterns, depleted livelihood options and limited humanitarian access

continue to put pressure on households’ food security affecting not only the Greater Upper Nile States, but also

extending to traditionally stable states like Northern Bahr el-Ghazal, Lakes, Warrap and the Greater Equatoria

States.

1. The food security situation of an estimated 30,000 people in Unity State (particularly Leer, Guit, Koch and Mayendit counties) is extremely concerning as there is likelihood of a famine occurring in the next few months if urgent humanitarian access is not provided. Limited but reliable evidence from recent assessments shows displaced households facing huge consumption gaps, with some households facing catastrophic food security conditions reducing consumption to as little as one meal per day consisting of only fish and water lilies. Data from Bentiu Protection of Civilian (PoC) camp shows Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) prevalence is at very critical levels (GAM >30%) indicating the situation in these counties of origin is likely to be worse. Similarly, the surrounding counties show above the WHO Emergency level malnutrition thresholds (GAM >15%). Multiple shocks such as loss of livestock through looting, crop failure and multiple displacements have left these people with no choice but to rely on wild food and/or humanitarian assistance. Humanitarian action is therefore urgently needed to prevent escalating malnutrition and death. In order to confirm the extent of the Catastrophe, the IPC Technical Working Group urgently seeks to conduct rapid verification assessments in all the worst affected areas.

2. For the first time in the IPC history of South Sudan large deterioration can be seen in the Greater Equatoria region due to a combination of factors: market disruption, economic downturn, insecurity and localized crop failures. Preliminary data indicates average to below-average production of the first harvest due to poor rainfall distribution, however the situation is likely to improve with the expectation of normal to above-normal rainfall for the second season, which will likely translate to better crop yields.

3. The economic downturn has resulted in record high food prices (up to 150% compared to average) which

has significantly affected the purchasing power of households across the country with significant effects being felt in Greater Bahr el-Ghazal States and the Urban-Poor population (30% in IPC Phase 3 and 4).

4. Conflict continues to have a profound impact on livelihoods. In Unity and Upper Nile States conflict

continues to be a major driver of food insecurity through population displacements. Households have increased the sale of natural resource products, which is now the main source of income for approximately half of households in both states. Sales of livestock and livestock products have increased both in Jonglei and Upper

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Nile States as households grapple with high food prices, and participation of households in the traditional formal economy in terms of salaried and casual labour remains very limited. Limited income opportunities cause a further shift to less-stable low-income activities.

5. As the harvest season progresses (October to December), the food security situation is expected to

progressively improve as households will have greater access to own production and income from crop sales. In addition to the crop harvests, households are also expected to have improved access to fish, livestock products and wild foods. However, the expected improvement will be lower than the levels realized in 2014 and other typical years in South Sudan. It is projected that about 2.4 million people (a 60% increase from same period last year) will continue to face severe food and nutrition insecurity, the majority of whom are in Unity, Upper Nile and Jonglei States. Further, in the period just before the start of the lean season (January to March) an estimated 2.6 million will remain severely food and nutrition insecure. It is important to note that changing conditions relating to economy and trade plus security and conflict may significantly affect the projections.

6. The overall nutrition situation in August-September remains Critical with GAM prevalence above the

Emergency threshold (GAM >15%) in the conflict affected states of the Greater Upper Nile region (Jonglei, Unity and Upper Nile States) and the perennially high malnutrition prevalence in the states of Northern Bahr el-Ghazal and Warrap. The nutrition situation has particularly deteriorated in Unity State to Very Critical (GAM >30%). High prevalence of acute malnutrition is attributed to inadequate food consumption, poor maternal and child feeding practices, morbidity, and constrained health and nutrition service delivery. From October to December 2015, the nutrition situation is likely to remain in Emergency situation for conflict-affected and perennially high prevalence states, and Serious (GAM 10-14.9%) in Lakes and Western Bahr el-Ghazal States and among Juba’s urban-poor households. Nutrition situation deterioration is emerging in the previously stable Western Equatorial counties of Mundri East and Mvolo. Overall, continued integrated interventions are required to prevent further deterioration.

7. Although the analysis shows the impact of humanitarian assistance in mitigating food insecurity for at least five counties, humanitarian assistance needs remain high in states most affected by the conflict where it has been inadequate due to lack of access. The IPC TWG requests urgent support for immediate rapid verification assessments in these worst- affected areas, specifically Leer, Guit, Koch and Mayendit counties.

THE IPC APPROACH

The IPC is a set of standardized international protocols that provide a global ‘common currency’ for classifying food insecurity, allowing for comparison across countries and over time. The IPC is a multi-stakeholder process based on broad technical consensus, offering decision makers an objective and rigorous analysis of food insecurity. The conclusions of this IPC analysis were reached using the protocols of IPC 2.0. The units of analysis were counties and livelihoods zones. The data that fed into the IPC analysis came from a wide range of sources, including reports from state government officials, state coordinators from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the latest Food Security and Nutrition Monitoring System (FSNMS) Round 16 survey, nutrition SMART surveys, and other sources. The analysis is divided into three timeframes, each with a corresponding map and population figures: the current situation is in August-September 2015, the first projection is made for the harvest season months of October to December 2015, and a second projection has been made for the post-harvest months of January to March 2016.1 In the scenario planning for January to March, the following factors were considered:

1Notes on IPC maps and population tables:

Mid-year population figures are provided by NBS and projected using the official 2008 Census growth rates, and include returnees. Population of IDPs in POCs have been classified separately while refugees in Maban and Pariang have been excluded from the classification as these are expected to be reached directly by other agencies. In determining population in different Phase Classification, out-migration to neighboring countries from Greater Upper Nile was estimated and subtracted from the calculated figures. Source: FEWSNET. State and County Boundaries on the map are provided officially by National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) South Sudan, and do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. Final boundary between the Republic of Sudan and the Republic of South Sudan has not yet been determined and the final status of the Abyei area is not yet determined. Population estimates in phase classifications are rounded to the nearest 5,000 Map data sources: NBS.

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(a) Insecurity would significantly reduce as implementation of the peace agreement continues and a ceasefire is put in place across the country; (b) With reduced insecurity, humanitarian and livelihoods assistance is highly likely to reach populations that had been inaccessible before; (c) Households cereal stock levels are expected to have started dwindling as they approach the start of the lean season; (d) Markets that aren’t disrupted by conflict/insecurity are expected to be functioning at near normal levels as road conditions improve with the onset of the dry season and hoarded cereal stocks purchased during the harvest season are released for sale; (e) The depreciating currency is expected to lead to high market prices even as household purchasing power is eroded. Internally displaced persons (IDPs) are included in the tallies for the population tables and maps. South Sudanese who fled the country as refugees were deducted from population totals. The IPC in South Sudan is produced by the IPC Technical Working Group. For more information, please contact the Chair of the Technical Working Group, John Pangech ([email protected]), NBS Livelihoods Analysis Unit, Mr Phillipe Dau Thiong ([email protected]) or the Policy and Communication Officer for FAO South Sudan, Lieke Visser ([email protected]).

mailto:[email protected]



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THEMATIC SECTORS

CLIMATE According to the 40th Forum of Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook, there was an increased likelihood of an El Nino Phenomenon on the region resulting in normal to below normal rainfall for the northern part of the country and normal to above normal for the Southern part of the country during the June to August 2015 period. For the September to December 2015 period, it’s predicted that phenomena will continue, with the rains abating towards then end of December. It is also worth noting that areas with increased likelihood of near normal to above normal rainfall are susceptible to episodic weather events that may lead to flash floods whereas other areas may experience dry spells. In line with the GHACOF 40 outlook, most regions to the North of the country have already started experiencing reduced rainfall amounts and the dry season is setting in whereas towards the South, the rainy season is persisting. In Eastern Equatoria, the areas of Lafon, Loleapan, Paringa and Lokwamor are most likely to flood during the October-December period if the current rains persist.

CIVIL INSECURITY In August and September, there have been incidents of insecurity and fighting across the country. The most affected areas are Leer, Guit, Koch and Mayendit in Unity State; Malakal, Baliet, Fashoda and Panyikang in Upper Nile; banditry cases have been reported along the Torit-Kapoeta, Kapoeta-Jie road and Napak-Kapoeta North roads in Eastern Equatoria. Cattle raiding is also expected to … At the beginning of October 2015, UNOCHA estimates that South Sudan has 1.65 million IDPs distributed across the country with 184,000 of them taking refuge in UNMISS protection of civilian (PoC) sites. In addition, there are approximately 265,000 refugees in South Sudan from Sudan, DRC, Ethiopia and CAR. A total of approximately 632,000 South Sudanese have fled into neighbouring as refugees. Displaced persons continue to arrive in Panyijiar, Mayom and Bentinu in Unity State in search of food assistance and protection whereas in Upper Nile State, there is an influx of people from the Western bank of the River Nile to the Malakal PoC site.

AGRICULTURE The total area planted under cereal crops across the country was below that of a normal season and this is likely to be manifested by a below average harvest in the October-December 2015 period. This reduction in area planted is attributed to insecurity, lack of seeds and farming tools. A reduced harvest is as a result of erratic rainfall and dry spells during the grain setting stage. Agricultural performance across the country, where people managed to farm, has been near normal in the Southern parts of the country and near normal to below normal in the Southern parts of the country. The biggest challenge to farmers this season has been lack of rains which are affecting production in most parts of the country.

MARKETS AND TRADE The SSP continue to persistently lose ground against the USD on the backdrop of constrained fiscal space, reduced oil revenues and depleted foreign reserves. The SSP to U.S. Dollar (USD) black market exchange rate rose by 9 percent in November 2015 from the previous month and is nearly hitting 19 SSP/USD compared to 6.1 SSP/USD at the beginning of the year. Currency depreciation, as well as US dollar and fuel shortages continued to exert pressure on markets and generated major seasonal price increases. As a consequence, food prices remain at all-time high, reaching record peak levels in June 2015 in most markets. However in July, localized seasonal price drops were recorded for locally produced cereals in key cropping areas. Nonetheless, the relief was short-lived as grain prices rebounded from August in Juba’s main markets by 23-28 percent for sorghum and maize. Across the country, sorghum is currently traded at about SSP 30-40/malwa (3.5 kg), more than double the cost at the

beginning of 2015 as well as last year, with the highest peaks registered in conflict-affected states.

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In line with increased staple food prices, the cost of living as measured by the Minimum Expenditure Basket (MEB) increased in Oct 15, only second to the peak rise in June 2015, after having fallen in July following seasonal crop harvests. Current MEB Cost stands at SSP 3,388 nearly double their levels in Jan this year and triple the same period last year. Corresponding increase in expenditure shares on food was discernible in October 2915, further deepening the vulnerability of highly market dependent livelihoods, particularly urban poor and greater swaths of the Bahr el Ghazal areas. Labour to cereal as well as goat to sorghum terms of trade have been on a free fall for the most of the year, currently fetching half the quantity of cereals they were affording the same time last year.

NUTRITION SITUATION The September 2015 integrated analysis based on recent data2 indicate that the nutrition situation remains Critical and above the Emergency threshold (GAM >15%) in the conflict affected states of the Greater Upper Nile region (Jonglei, Unity and Upper Nile States) and the perennially high malnutrition rates in the states of Northern Bahr el Ghazal and Warrap. The nutrition situation has particularly deteriorated in Unity state to Very Critical thresholds (GAM >30%). High prevalence of acute malnutrition is attributed to inadequate food consumption, poor maternal and child feeding practices, morbidity, and constrained health and nutrition service delivery. From October to December 2015, the nutrition situation is likely to remain in Critical (GAM 15-29.9%) to Very Critical situation for conflict-affected and high burden states, and Serious (GAM 10-14.9%) in Lakes and Western Bahr el Ghazal States

and among Juba’s urban-poor households. Nutrition situation is deteriorating to Serious levels in the previously stable. The conflict in the GUN had the highest impact on the nutrition service delivery leading to suspension of services in this affected counties. Over 21% and 24% of the OTP/SC and TSFP services are closed respectively by September 2015 leading to thousands of beneficiaries lost to follow up and as similar number failing to access services. Unity was the highest hit with the insecurity and thus bore the highest burden of nutrition service disruption with about 38.8% and 29.5% of the OTP/SC and TSFP services suspended. Key counties most affected include Guit, Leer and Mayendit of Unity state.

2 Nutrition data from 34 SMART surveys (April-September 2015), Juba Urban Assessment, EFSA and FSNMS R16 data (July-August 2015) were used

in the current IPC Analysis.

MAPS & POPULATION TABLES

AUGUST-SEPTEMBER 2015 (CURRENT) Key observations during the FSNMS Round 16 period:

A countrywide consumption of green harvest has eased household hunger and this situation is expected to improve further into the harvest period of October to December 2015, with a projected 1.5 million people expected to move out of Crisis and Emergency acute food insecurity.

Prices of food commodities were generally high across the country even as households reported that they source 52% of their food from markets. The high prices are as a result of tough economic times exacerbated by a depreciating currency and scarcity of dollars in the economy for importing food products from neighbouring countries.

Insecurity continues to play a major role in the dynamics of food insecurity across the country with Unity and Upper Nile most affected and some incidents reported in Western Equatoria’s Yambio, Mundri, Mvolo, and Maridi counties. Lakes states has also been rocked by insecurity along the main trade access routes from Juba into the Greater Bahr el Ghazal region thereby adversely affecting access to food through markets.

Trade with neighboring Sudan was minimal because of insecurity, trade bans and impassable roads due to the rainy season. Similarly, trade with Ethiopia is also minimal due to border closures and trade bans.

Some areas along the swamps are still flooded from the rainy season, providing increased access to fish. This however means that these areas have less farmed areas as a result of water logging and will suffer lesser harvests.

The overall nutrition situation remained critical with Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) prevalence above the emergency threshold (GAM greater than 15%) in the conflict affected states of Greater Upper Nile (Jonglei, Unity and Upper Nile) and in states generally associated with high malnutrition rates (Northern Bahr el Ghazal and Warrap). Notable is the deterioration in Lakes state, with rates approaching the emergency threshold. High levels of acute malnutrition are attributable to inadequate food consumption, poor maternal and child feeding practices, morbidity, and constrained health and nutrition service delivery.

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IPC CLASSIFICATION FOR SOUTH SUDAN: CURRENT PERIOD (AUGUST-SEPTEMBER 2015).

POPULATION DISTRIBUTION FOR CURRENT PERIOD (AUGUST-SEPTEMEBR 2015)

State Mid-2015 Population (NBS)

Minimal Stressed Crisis Emergency Famine

Central Equatoria 1,554,187 1,050,000 325,000 170,000 35,000 -

Eastern Equatoria 1,122,365 495,000 430,000 175,000 25,000 -

Jonglei 1,759,071 230,000 620,000 425,000 120,000 -

Lakes 1,075,135 380,000 380,000 370,000 20,000 -

Northern Bahr el Ghazal 1,368,984 230,000 630,000 370,000 135,000 -

Unity 1,011,925 45,000 155,000 420,000 290,000 30,000

Upper Nile 1,214,871 120,000 230,000 610,000 185,000 -

Warrap 1,276,953 365,000 530,000 360,000 20,000 -

Western Bahr el Ghazal 526,666 265,000 145,000 115,000 - -

Western Equatoria 784,492 550,000 185,000 50,000 - -

Total 11,694,648 3,730,000 3,630,000 3,065,000 830,000 30,000

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OCTOBER-DECEMBER 2015 (PROJECTED)

Main assumptions for the projection period:

Household food security is expected to improve as they harvest their crops and consumption of own production increases, reducing reliance on markets.

Markets that haven’t been disrupted by insecurity/conflict are expected to operate at normal capacity as harvests find their way into these markets. With households still having stocks, prices of commodities are expected to drop as compared to the pre-harvest period.

Insecurity will continue to limit the availability of non-food commodities in local markets because of illegal road blocks, banditry along trade routes and looting of markets especially in Lakes Southern Unity states.

The scarcity of dollars in the economy to import market goods is expected to affect availability of non-food items. The depreciating local currency is also likely to reduce demand for non-essential

items from markets further limiting their importation.

Military activity in trouble spots in Upper Nile and Unity is expected to increase as the dry season kicks in and overland movement improves.

Flooded swamps in Upper Nile, Unity, Jonglei and parts of Warrap, Northern and Western Bahr el-Ghazal are expected to provide fish.

The impact of humanitarian food aid was factored mostly in Unity state as well as IDP camps.

Food prices are likely to remain higher than normal due to effects of high inflation and dollar scarcity.

Livestock migration back to homesteads as a result of pasture and water availability (residual effects of the rainy season) will result in increased availability of animal based diets (blood, milk, meat) which will supplement household diets.

IPC CLASSIFICATION FOR SOUTH SUDAN FOR HARVEST PERIOD (OCTOBER-DECEMBER 2015)

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POPULATION DISTRIBUTION FOR HARVEST PERIOD (OCTOBER-DECEMBER 2015)

State Mid-2015 Population (NBS)




Jonglei 1,759,071 370,000 635,000 340,000 60,000 -

Lakes 1,075,135 695,000 230,000 225,000 - -

Northern Bahr el Ghazal 1,368,984 510,000 720,000 135,000 - -

Unity 1,011,925 90,000 200,000 360,000 240,000 40,000

Upper Nile 1,214,871 205,000 385,000 460,000 75,000 -

Warrap 1,276,953 535,000 615,000 130,000 - -


Western Equatoria 784,492 650,000 135,000 - - -

Total 11,694,648 5,115,000 3,750,000 1,965,000 415,000 40,000

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JANUARY-MARCH 2016 (PROJECTED) Main assumptions for the projection:

The states of Upper Nile, Unity, Jonglei and Eastern Equatoria will fall into the lean season earlier than normal because of their less than normal harvests. The other states are expected to still have adequate household cereal stocks to maintain low food insecurity levels.

Implementation of the peace agreement is expected to start in earnest and this is likely to improve the security situation and reduce the cost of doing business (lower transportation costs, less taxes and availability of dollars) and slightly lower market prices thus increasing household access to food through markets.

Towards the end of the post-harvest season and as the lean season starts, livestock migration is expected to be away from homesteads towards the swampy areas where there is pasture and water. This will rob households of livestock products and they are likely to rely more on wild foods.

The water levels in the swampy areas of Upper Nile, Unity, Jonglei and parts of Warrap, Northern and Western Bahr el-Ghazal are expected to start reducing and households’ access to fish is likely to reduce.

IPC CLASSIFICATION FOR SOUTH SUDAN FOR JANUARY-MARCH 2016

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POPULATION DISTRIBUTIONFOR POST-HARVEST PERIOD (JANUARY-MARCH 2016)

State Mid-2015

Population (NBS)




Jonglei 1,790,579 435,000 700,000 385,000 125,000 -

Lakes 1,094,426 640,000 325,000 210,000 - -

Northern Bahr el Ghazal 1,393,547 450,000 800,000 140,000 - -

Unity 1,030,081 125,000 260,000 355,000 195,000 -

Upper Nile 1,236,597 290,000 445,000 475,000 70,000 -

Warrap 1,299,058 410,000 690,000 195,000 - -


Western Equatoria 798,416 700,000 100,000 - - -

Total 11,903,088 5,060,000 4,320,000 2,170,000 440,000 -

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GREATER UPPER NILE In Greater Upper Nile, approximately 2,080,000 people (52% of the population) are facing Crisis and Emergency acute food insecurity in August-September 2015 compared to 1,645,000 people (41% of the population) in April 2015, which was the start of the lean season. Projections for the harvest season that runs from October to December 2015 indicate that approximately 1,575,000 people (40% of the population) are likely to face Crisis and Emergency acute food insecurity, the same levels as those seen in April 2015. This apparent lack of improvement of the food security situation is attributed to reduced farmed areas as a result of insecurity related movement and access restrictions especially in Upper Nile and Unity; market disruptions because of insecurity and impassable roads during the rainy season; reduced humanitarian assistance in Upper Nile and Unity because of insecurity. The situation though could have been worse had it not been for availability of fish, livestock products, wild foods and some humanitarian and livelihoods assistance where the security situation permitted. Conflict and insecurity continued to affect most of the Northern Western counties of Upper Nile, particularly Malakal, Melut, Baliet, Panyikang, Fashoda and Manyo. For Unity, the central and southern part counties of Mayendit, Leer, Koch, Guit as well as Rubkona were most affected by the conflict. The security situation in Jonglei was fairly better compared to Unity and Upper Nile states. The effects of this conflict were movement and access limitations, disruptions to markets and livelihood activities such as farming, and reduced delivery of humanitarian assistance. The 16th round of FSNMS assessments conducted in July-August 2015 in the Greater Upper Nile states found out that majority of households rely heavily on natural resources (Jonglei - 24%, Upper Nile - 47% and Unity - 57%) for their livelihoods and are mainly surviving through small-scale agriculture and sales of cereals, fish, firewood, livestock and grass; there are very few formal employment opportunities. The major shocks faced by most households are lack of free access/movement, returnees/IDPs living with households, weeds and pests, insecurity/violence and floods. Markets in the three states of Greater Upper Nile remain significantly affected and are recording very high commodity prices whenever and wherever they are available. This is because of high transportation costs of commodities to the markets attributable to insecurity and impassable roads as a result of heavy rains; a rapidly depreciating local currency that affects price stability; and lack of dollars for importing food

and non-food items from the neighbouring countries. The FSNMS result show that most households were on a monthly basis spending most of their of their household incomes (up to 54%) on buying food. With food prices very high in local markets, poor households can only purchase little staple food. Agricultural activity in Greater Upper Nile was generally much lower than that of a normal season because of the conflict-related insecurity and displacements that disrupted secure access to farming lands. The dry weather roads and airstrips were rendered unusable by the rains and this led to low availability of agricultural inputs such as seeds and digging implements because of disrupted trade routes and reduced distribution of crop kits by humanitarian agencies because of logistical and access issues. Nonetheless, for the few households that were able to plant, the crop performance was normal and green harvest consumption has greatly contributed to the improvement of household food security. Overall, the September nutrition situation in Greater Upper Nile remains in critical emergency (GAM rates above 15 per cent) 3 compared to the situation in April 2015 and since July 2014. Elevated GAM rates persist throughout the three states in September 2015 including Fashoda County where interventions had previously sustained GAM rates below 15%. Three other counties of Akobo, Longuchuk, and Panyijiar that had Very Critical malnutrition levels (GAM rates of over 30 per cent) to Critical levels (GAM rates between 20 and 30 per cent) in April sustained Critical malnutrition levels. However, the nutrition situation has deteriorated to Very Critical levels in Mayom, Bentiu PoCs and most probably in the neighbouring counties of origin for those in the PoCs signalling catastrophe in parts of Southern Unity. Many households in these and other areas have been in protracted food emergency (Phase 4) for the last one year with limited humanitarian access, extreme human suffering and irreversible consequences.

JONGLEI In Jonglei state, approximately 545,000 people are estimated to be facing acute food insecurity (Crisis (Phase 3) and Emergency (Phase 4)) in September 2015. This number is expected to reduce to 400,000 during the post-harvest period of October to December 2015 as most households will have access to sorghum harvests. The counties of Fangak, Duk and Uror are classified Stressed (Phase 3)

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WHO classifies nutrition situation as Acceptable

(GAM<5%), Serious (GAM 10-14.9%), and Emergency

(GAM≥15%). IPC classifies GAM rate of 15-29.9% as Critical

and >30% as Very Critical.

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classification in the period September to December 2015 but would have been in Emergency (Phase 4) were it not for substantial humanitarian assistance. In addition, Bor South County would have been in Crisis food insecurity (IPC Phase 3) in the absence of humanitarian assistance but is classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2). The positive effects of humanitarian assistance notwithstanding, Jonglei state has 10 out of 12 counties in Crisis (Phase 3) and Emergency (Phase 4) food insecurity classification. Findings from the FSNMS Round 16 show that in September 2015, about 88 per cent of households were facing poor and borderline food consumption. The major shocks faced by households included lack of free movement and access (24 per cent) and having returnees and IDPs living with them (21 per cent). The 30 per cent of households found to rely on markets for food were allocating close to half (48 per cent) of their expenditure on food purchases, whereas 31 per cent relied on food aid, 22 per cent on own production and 9 per cent on gathering. Prolonged dry spells during the cropping season in many of the state counties4 means that the harvest is expected to be below average and households are likely to run out of cereal stocks earlier than normal. This is reflected in the projected 510,000 people who are expected to slip into Crisis (Phase 3) and Emergency (Phase 4) during the January-March 2016 period. Access to milk products was disrupted in Bor and Twic East counties as a result of cattle raiding. The FSNMS observed that in Ayod, Duk, Twic East, Bor, Pigi/Canal and Pochalla there was limited access to markets because roads were impassable as a result of the rainy season. This has caused restocked adequately thus leading to high commodity prices, further affecting household access to food; this was observed in the counties of. Insecurity and movement restrictions also affected market access in the counties of Pigi/Canal and Pochalla as well as Fangak. The food distributed in the IDP camp in Bor South also finds its way into the local market thus helping increase the supply of cereals and slightly lowering the prices. Access for traders to inland markets remains constrained by insecurity and movement restrictions as well as impassable roads due to rainy conditions. The purchasing power of the affected populations remains extremely low, further lowering the incentive for traders to venture inland into insecure areas. The September 2015 nutrition situation is sustained in Critical phase with GAM rates of 20-30 percent in most of the counties reflecting humanitarian

4 These counties include Bor, Twic East, Duk, Ayod,

Fangak, Nyirol, Uror and Pibor.

emergency due to poor food security factors, high incidences of disease related to poor water and sanitation facilities and the effects of conflict. Earlier in the April analysis improvements were noted from Very Critical GAM rates (above 30 per cent) recorded in Akobo East in December 2014. Other counties such as Uror, Nyirol, and Akobo West have experienced Critical nutrition situation since December 2014. Nutrition indicators were not computed for Jonglei in FSNMS R16 assessment as a result of inadequate sample size (only 210 children assessed) as more than 10% of the selected clusters could not be reached. However, the FSNMS R15 had recorded a statewide GAM rate of 19.5% indicating Critical emergency levels of malnutrition in Jonglei. Recent SMART surveys conducted in May 2015 in Twic East, Uror, Ayod and Akobo East counties reported high (>20%) GAM rates of 20.1%, 23.2%, 22.9% and 22.1% respectively indicating the counties face Critical nutrition situation. However, counties that have had relative access to nutrition services or adequate consumption from market purchases such as Pigi Canal, Bor South, Pibor and Pochala have improved nutrition situations and are classified in Serious (GAM rate of 10-14.9%) or Alert (GAM rate of 5-9.9%) based on programme data. With the harvest season, there is improved access to own production by the households that planted and for those relying on markets, they will experience some price reductions as cereal supply to the market improves. The key challenges though still remain insecurity, poor infrastructure, heavy rainfall and accessibility. Livelihoods and food aid support is still needed for large proportions of the population, some of whom are hosting IDPs and returnees within their households.

UPPER NILE Conflict in Upper Nile State continues, especially in the Northern Western counties, with Malakal being most affected. The number of IDPs in Upper Nile state has reached 300,000 IDPs and Maban County still continues to host about 133,000 refugees. It is estimated that 795,000 people are facing a Crisis (Phase 3) and Emergency (Phase 4) food insecurity situation in September 2015, with this number expected to reduce to approximately 535,000 people during the harvest period of October-December 2015. Food security indicators monitored during the FSNMS Round 16 indicate that about 58 per cent of households were experiencing poor and borderline food consumption; about 93 per cent of the households were experiencing severe and moderate hunger; and about 54 per cent of households were using Crisis and Emergency livelihoods coping

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strategies with about 47% of them relying on sale of natural resources for income, an indication of depleted livelihood assets as well as lack of labour opportunities. . The major shocks suffered by majority of households in the state include insecurity and lack of free movement as well as high food prices especially when you consider that 45% of food consumed in households is sourced from markets. Markets continue to be severely disrupted with Baliet County having no functioning markets. Malakal market has also been significantly disrupted by continued fighting and the Malakal PoC market is serving the IDPs, with cereals being the distributed food aid. The heavy rains that had disrupted movement of market supplies are likely to reduce during the projection period of October-December 2015 and it is expected that the influx of goods into the markets on the backdrop of reduced transportation costs will lead to a drop in prices and increased household access to food. Markets in the border towns with Ethiopia continue to be depressed because of border closures whose resultant informal trade is characterized by limited stocks and high prices. The FSNMS R16 did not have sufficient sample size (only 297 children assessed) for anthropometric analysis (more than 10% of selected clusters could not be reached). However, based on historical data and the several SMART surveys conducted in May-August 2015 in Longochuk, Ulang, Nasir, Renk and Fangak counties, the nutrition situation in Upper Nile generally remains Critical and above the 15% emergency threshold, except in Maban, Maiwut and Panyikang that are classified at Serious nutrition situation (GAM rate of 10-14.9%). SMART surveys in camps also reported the nutrition situation as Critical among the displaced populations in Renk IDPs (GAM rate of 21.8%) and Malakal PoCs (GAM rate of 18.9%). The FSNMS round 15 in March 2015 had recorded statewide GAM rate of 15.4% reflecting a sustained emergency situation since round 13 in July 2014. The generally high rate of acute malnutrition in Upper Nile is attributed to the effects of ongoing conflict which has hindered humanitarian access to food and nutrition services, disrupted market supply of food and displacement of the population to the PoCs. Majority of the livestock keeping counties are consuming livestock products as pastures are plenty because of the rainy season. This trend is expected to continue till the end of the year and livestock migration to swampy areas in search of pastures is expected to commence towards the end of January-March 2016 projection period. Other areas such as Malakal, Melut and Baliet that have suffered

continued insecurity have limited livestock holdings and these communities are supplementing their diets with wild foods and fish.

UNITY In Mayom, Pariang, Panyinjiar, Rubkona, Abiemnhom counties: the situation in September 2016 showed that: The situation was following normal seasonal patterns. Green harvest of maize had started compensating the deficit in the lean season. And humanitarian assistance was ongoing and was not hampered. Consumption of animal based products was following normal pattern as livestock, mainly cattle, returned from grazing areas to homesteads and contributed to food availability. Fishing activities continued but was limited due to lack of fishing gears. Stable security situation contributed to increase access and availability of Food. High market prices were likely to continue to impact negatively on food access, with bad roads, lesser food is likely to reach the counties, however, its impact was going to be compensated by the increased own production. High inflation coupled with limited income sources, high market prices result in significant access to food. Due to the difficulties to collect data using FSNMS as it is required to be representative at state level therefore food security indicators were collected using Emergency Food Security Assessment (EFSA) and the outcomes were applied as indicative only. EFSA results for food consumption (FCS) showed that 18.5 per cent had poor food consumption, while 24.9 per cent had borderline and 56.6 per cent had acceptable consumption. In terms of dietary diversity, 16.6 per cent had low and medium HDDS while 83.4 percent had high HDDS. Adults were estimated to take 1.5 meals while children were taking 2.4 meals per day suggesting that there was crisis coping going on. Main source of income sale of firewood, charcoal, grass (35,7%), sale of livestock and livestock products (14,5%), sale of alcoholic beverages (12,7%), sale of fish (9,2%), agriculture (9,2%), casual labour (6,7%), gifts, borrowing, begging, sale of food aid (3,6%). Rainfall in non-highly conflict affected counties was usually average to above average and it enhanced good agro-pastoral activities. The only exception was Panyijiar where a long dry spell (5 dekads in Jul –Aug) was observed. The counties with the worst food security outcomes in Unity state are Guit, Koch, Mayendit and Leer as a result of a new wave of conflict which escalated in early May resulting in looting of most of the livestock, especially cattle, from most of the four

16

counties resulting to no access to milk and meat for most of the households Very few animals are reportedly in some hiding places in the swamps but diseases like liver flukes have been reported. This will significantly limit the productivity of the animals. In some areas green harvest is not possible because people did not cultivate as a result of the conflict. No humanitarian assistance is provided in the County due to insecurity which has limited humanitarian assistance. Markets were destroyed and informal markets like in Kok were happening in the entire County. Price inflation had increased by 100%. Fishing activities was ongoing in the hiding areas and was contributing significantly to people’s access to food. However, the key limitations are lack of fishing gears, less flood and limited access to fishing grounds due to insecurity. Security is very much volatile and the majority of the people, mostly men, were in hiding places. There was lack of clarity on displacement of populations. However, there was an increased caseload in POC Bentiu and Panyijiar which was believed to have mainly originated from displacement in Guit, Koch, Mayendit and Leer counties. Other IDPs have crossed the county border to neighboring counties in Old Fangak in Jonglei state. There was no nutrition data at the time of analysis, however, it was expected to be very critical and was projected from recent arrivals nutrition data from PoC. The only food consumption data was from EFSA, and therefore can only be used as indicative of the reality, due to small sample size and limited accessibility. Generally, people were relying on water lilies, fish, wild vegetables, and fruits. EFSA results suggested that 56.3 percent of the population had poor consumption, while 20.3 per cent had borderline and 23.4 per cent reported acceptable consumption. In terms of dietary diversity, 54.2 per cent had low dietary diversity while 13.6 per cent had medium diversity and 32.2 had access to high diversity, these could be as a result of some humanitarian assistance that was still available from prior to wen the conflict escalated.

Main source of income was the sale of fish for about 30.5 per cent of the population, while 28.5 per cent were involved in firewood, charcoal and grass sales, 7.6 per cent were involved in the sale of alcoholic beverages and 5.7 per cent were engaging in borrowing, begging, and sale of food aid. Only 2.9 per cent were selling livestock and livestock products and only 1 per cent was involved in casual labour. Rainfall: combination of dry spell between June and August, and conflict-related reduction in cropping areas in the central (highly conflict affected) parts of Unity resulted into significant reduction in agriculture production and food availability. Water resources and pasture availability for livestock significantly deteriorated in the same period. For a second time in a row, no FSNMS was conducted in Unity due to security challenges. Instead an EFSA was conducted with limited access to some areas in southern and central parts of the state. The EFSA MUAC assessment results could not be used due to poor data quality but indicated proxy GAM rates of >30%. SMART surveys conducted in April-August 2015 in some counties recorded very high acute malnutrition levels. The GAM rate for Mayom was 30%, indicating a Very Critical nutrition situation. In Abiemnhom (26.5%), Panyijiar (24.2%) and Pariang (23.4%) the GAM rates were >20% indicating Critical nutrition situation. A SMART survey among the Bentiu PoCs reported GAM rate of 34.1%, above the Very Critical threshold of 30%, and was taken as a reflection of the neighbouring counties of origin including Mayendit, Leer, Koch, Guit and Rubkona where no nutrition surveys were conducted. Despite the high GAM rates the mortality rates were below emergency threshold in most counties except Panyijar. The elevated mortality above the emergency threshold with a crude mortality rate of 2.56/10 000 people per day (1.77- 3.71) and under five mortality rates of 2.69/10 000 people per day (1.59-4.52) in Panyijar were mainly due to illness in under five as well as a combination of illness and conflict for the above 5 years old deaths Deterioration in food security indicators and renewed conflict since May 2015 is likely to have impacted on the worsening of nutrition situation in the Southern and Central Unity counties, with little or no food production, market access, and disrupted humanitarian services.

GREATER BAHR EL-GHAZAL The Greater Bahr el-Ghazal is the second worst food insecure region after the GUN region during the lean season months May-July with 53 per cent of the population facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food insecurity levels

which totals 2,260,000 people. While the current IPC report has put the population from the GUN facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food insecurity levels at 51 per cent, the situation is based on huge amounts of food aid that are flowing or is planned to flow into the region. In reality, without that humanitarian assistance, food insecurity levels would be higher. The 2014/2015 CFSAM report showed that there was an overall crop production deficit of 57,990 tons of cereal in the Greater Bahr el Ghazal region in the 2015 harvest. The Terms of Trade of Cattle for Sorghum had fallen significantly at varying rates due to increasing prices of food and falling livestock prices at the same time. Increased insecurity along major trade routes from Uganda where most of the cereal comes from has continued throughout the most recent months. Food products will pass through Central Equatoria and Lakes states routes to reach as far as Western Bahr el Ghazal and Northern Bahr el Ghazal states. Some food commodities also come from Sudan mainly through informal routes. The two states of Northern Bahr el Ghazal and Warrap have perennially reported high malnutrition rates and are considered high malnutrition burden states in the Greater Bahr el Ghazal region. The nutrition situation remains Critical (GAM rates of 15-29.9%) in all the counties in the two states except Tonj North, where the nutrition is Serious (GAM rate of 10-14.9%). The nutrition situation however, is relatively stable at Alert to Serious levels in the rest parts of the region in Western Bahr el Ghazal and Lakes states. From August to September 2015, the population in need facing Food Crisis (IPC Phase 3 and Food Emergency (IPC Phase 4) decrease to 732, 000 as green harvests start. NORTHERN BAHR EL-GHAZAL In September 2015, Northern Bahr el Ghazal state has an estimated 505,000 people facing a Crisis (Phase 3) and Emergency (Phase 4) food insecurity situation, representing about 37 per cent of the total population and a 65 per cent increase compared to the same period last year. All the counties in Northern Bahr el Ghazal were generally in a Crisis

(Phase 3) food insecurity situation but this is expected to improve to Stressed (Phase 2) food insecurity situation during the harvest and post-harvest periods that span October 2015 to March 2016. Note though that during this improvement period, approximately 140,000 people are expected to be in a Crisis (Phase 3) food insecurity situation, which is less than the 20 per cent IPC threshold for phase classification. . The FSNMS Round 16 findings for the August-September 2015 post-lean period that is characterized by green harvest consumption indicate that 49 per cent of households have poor and borderline food consumption. Households that get 73 per cent of their food from markets were allocating up to 79 per cent of their expenditure on purchase of food whose prices are high because of trade restrictions imposed by Sudan to the North as well as accessibility issues from Juba in the South as a result of insecurity and roads rendered impassable by the heavy rains; consumption of own production was reported by a comparatively low 18 per cent of households. It was also found out that 62 per cent of households were exercising crisis and emergency coping strategies 5 . The findings also indicate that of the assessed households, 40 per cent were facing lack of free access and movement, while 22 per cent felt that hosting IDPs and returnees was putting a strain on their food stocks; and 24 per cent reported weeds infestation as a problem they faced. Households were getting 25 per cent of their income from casual labour opportunities and 32 per cent from the sale of natural resources whose availability has been enhanced by a favourable rainy season. The harvest period that runs from October-December 2015 is predicted to be normal and majority of households are expected to start consuming their own production and rely less on markets, whose prices are likely to ease as demand decreases. During this same period, livestock prices are expected to increase in line with an increase in demand by traders from Sudan; this is expected to positively impact on the ToT for livestock to sorghum thus further improving household access to food. Consumption of livestock products is expected to continue at normal levels as the near normal rainfall has led to adequate pasture that is expected to sustain the livestock into the next year. Fishing is also expected to be sustained at high levels and this will

5 28 per cent crisis and 34 per cent emergency coping

strategies respectively.

18

provide extra income to households as well as supplement their diets. The nutrition situation remains Critical with the statewide FSNMS R16 in August 2015 recording a GAM rate of 24.2% and a slight deterioration from the GAM rate of 19.7% in R15 in March 2015. According to SMART surveys conducted in April 2015, Aweil Centre and Aweil South remain in Critical phases with GAM rates of 23.1% and 24.9% respectively. On the other hand, Aweil North and Aweil West deteriorated from Serious (GAM rate of 10-14.9%) in the April analysis to Critical phase, based on the FSNMS data. The food security situation in Northern Bahr el Ghazal is expected to significantly improve during the October-December 2015 projection period with the overall state-wide phase classification being Stressed (Phase 2) and this is expected to persist into the first quarter of 2016 during which period it is expected that cereal stock levels will be adequate to meet household food and income needs. Livestock products, fish, wild foods and availability of natural resources are also expected to be normal during this period, further contributing to the stability of household food security.

WESTERN BAHR EL-GHAZAL The IPC classification for Western Bahr el-Ghazal, approximates that 115,000 people are facing a Crisis (Phase 3) food insecurity situation in September 2015, representing 22 per cent of the total population. This number is projected to reduce to 35,000 people during the October-December harvest period because household food stocks and incomes are expected to greatly improve and the overall food insecurity situation will be Stressed (Phase 2) for all counties in the state despite some population being in Crisis and Emergency. The food security indicators monitored indicate that 48 per cent of the households have poor to borderline food consumption. Up to 70 per cent of households were found to be exercising crisis and emergency coping strategies. The assessed households were getting 29 per cent of their income from sale of agricultural produce, 27 per cent from sale of natural resources and 23 per cent from both skilled and casual labour. The major shocks faced by households include lack of free movement and access, pressure placed on food stocks by IDPs and returnees being hosted as well as weeds infestation for those that had farms. Most households in Western Bahr el-Ghazal were found to source 58 per cent of their food from own production and 37 per cent from markets.

The nutrition situation in Bahr el Ghazal state generally remains at Serious levels (GAM rate of 10-14.9%) or improved to Alert (GAM rate of 5-9.9%). Statewide FSNMS assessments have reported GAM rates of 12.1%, 12.0%, and 10.1 in successive rounds 16, 15 and 14 indicating no significant change from the FSNMS data. However, two SMART surveys conducted in June-September 2015 recorded improved nutrition situation in Jur River (GAM rate of 9.8%) and Raga (GAM rate of 9.3%) indicating Alert nutrition situation. The SMART survey conducted in Wau county in the same period reported a GAM rate of 10.2% indicating Serious malnutrition levels and no significant change from the GAM rate of 14.4% in July 2014 SMART survey in the same population. In the first quarter of 2016, household food stocks are expected to start dwindling, but because of the expected good harvest, the food security situation is projected to remain at Stressed (Phase 2) levels. In Jur River County, consumption of livestock products is expected to supplement household food needs. Even with the positive food security outlook, Western Bahr el-Ghazal still faces challenges which include insecurity, unpredictable rainfall patterns, high food prices and a depreciating currency which all constrain household access to food.

LAKES In September 2015, the situation in Lakes state has deteriorated compared to the same period last year and it is approximated that 390,000 people are in a Crisis (Phase 3) food insecurity situation, representing 36 per cent of the total population. In September, only Wulu County is in Stressed (Phase 2) levels whereas the rest are in Crisis (Phase 3). In the October-December projection period, it is expected that the situation will improve and approximately 225,000 people will be facing a Crisis (Phase 3) food insecurity situation, about 21 per cent of the total population; during this period, Wulu moves to Minimal (Phase 1) food insecurity levels whereas the rest move to Stressed (Phase 2) food insecurity levels. The FSNMS Round 16 food security indicators show that in Lakes state, 43 per cent of households have poor and borderline food consumption score, a situation that is attributed to availability of green harvest, milk and fish during the rainy season which has supported crop growth, pasture availability and increased fish levels in the rivers and swamps. It was also found out that 58 per cent of households are exercising crisis and emergency coping strategies though this is expected to ease as the harvest period commences and there is a reduction in the sale of high value livelihood assets, wild food gathering and

19

kinship reliance. Majority of households source 51 per cent of their food from markets and 39 per cent from own production, with some minimal amounts of food aid, gifts and gathering of wild foods. The major sources of income for most households are agriculture and crop sales, livestock products sales and casual / skilled labour; of this income, approximately 53 per cent of it is dedicated to the purchase of food items on a monthly basis. Restricted access and movement, insecurity and violence and pressure on households as a result of hosting IDPs and returnees were identified as the major shocks experienced by majority of households in Lakes state. Markets are functional but characterized by high prices, which are expected to reduce as harvests find their way to the markets and households consume own production. Livestock prices are expected to increase, even as cereal prices decrease, thus further improving households’ access to food through markets. For the salaried, currency depreciations and associated inflation are likely to negatively impact on their purchasing power and this might drive them into crisis coping strategies in the absence of productive assets and savings. Insecurity continues to be a problem in Lakes state with highway robberies and cattle rustling reported. This disrupts inflows of commodities earmarked for market restocking and the resultant scarcity is likely to lead to high prices especially for non-food items during the October-December 2015 period; for the January-March 2016 period, high food prices are expected to start manifesting as household stocks start dwindling, especially for households whose harvest was compromised by erratic rainfall and prolonged dry spells during the cropping season. The FSNMS round 16 in August 2015 reported a statewide GAM rate of 14.4%, indicating a sustained Serious level (GAM rate of 10-149 per cent) of acute malnutrition and similar to the GAM rates of 12.2 per cent and 10.6 per centreported in the FSNMS R15 and R14 in March 2015 and November 2014 respectively. Nutrition data from SMART surveys is still limited. Nutrition data from SMART surveys conducted in April 2015 in Wulu and Yirol East reported GAM rates of 7.4 per cent and 13.9 per cent indicating Alert and Serious nutrition situations respectively. Another recent SMART survey conducted in Awerial/Minkerman in August 2015, reported a GAM rate of 14.1 per cent, again indicating a sustained Serious level (GAM rate of 10-149 per cent) of acute malnutrition since November 2014.

WARRAP The September 2015 IPC analysis approximated that 30 per cent of the population (380,000 people) are facing a food security Crisis (Phase 3) and Emergency (Phase 4). With the onset of the harvest period starting from October 2015, it is expected that this number will reduce to 130,000 (10 percent of the population) and increase slightly to 195,000 (15 percent of the population) in the January-March 2016 projection period as household start exhausting their cereal stocks from the harvests. According to the FSNMS Round 16 findings, the major shocks faced by households include lack of free movement and access as well as weeds and pests for the farming communities. To a lesser extent, households also reported that hosting IDPs and returnees placed a strain on their food stocks. A total of 70 per cent of households are having poor to borderline food consumption. It was found that households are sourcing up to 59 per cent of their food from markets and 27 per cent from own production with 58 per cent of their expenditure being on food purchases. Furthermore, 61% of households were found to be employing crisis and emergency coping strategies. Recurrent cattle raiding, resource based conflict and revenge killings are a major source of insecurity in Warrap state and this has a profound negative effect on households’ access to food. Warrap has borne a perennial burden of elevated malnutrition levels with GAM rates above 15 per cent, even during times of good harvest, signifying the contribution of multiple causal factors of malnutrition, which require a separate nutrition causal analysis study to understand. The August 2015 FSNMS reported a state-wide GAM rate of 17.2 per cent, similar to the GAM rates of 17.2 per cent recorded in FSNMS round 14 of November 2014, but a slight improvement from the GAM rate of 21.2 per cent in FSNMS round 15 in March 2015. Recent SMART surveys conducted in May-June 2015 reported varied levels of malnutrition ranging from GAM rate of 29.1 per cent in Gogrial West, 18.3 per cent in Gogrial East indicating Critical nutrition situation, to 11.6 per cent in Tonj North indicating a Serious nutrition situation. The nutrition situation thus remains Critical (GAM rate of 15-29.9 per cent) in all the counties of Warrap except for Tonj North where the nutrition situation is Serious, with GAM rates less than 15 per cent.

GREATER EQUATORIA Food security situation in Greater Equatoria Region is more favourable compared to the two regions of Greater Upper Nile and Greater Bahr el Ghazal during the April 2015 IPC analysis. However it is expected to deteriorate during the lean season with Kapoeta North, East and Loppa/Lafon likely to be in Crisis (Phase3) and 9 counties across the region expected to be in stress (Phase 2). During the first season harvest August to September food security situation is expected to improve across the region with all the counties in Western and Central Equatoria projected to bounce back to minimal (Phase 1) food insecurity while the counties earlier mentioned in crisis will slip to stress (Phase 2 Nutrition information is still limited to the regular FSNMS rounds since July 2014 and a few SMART surveys conducted in parts of Eastern Equatoria and Central Equatoria where there are on-going nutrition programmes. FSNMS data generally indicates stable situation with GAM rates ranging from below 5 per cent to between 10 to 15 per cent across Greater Equatoria.

EASTERN EQUATORIA The recent IPC analysis estimated that in Eastern Equatoria State (EES), 200,000 people (18% of the total population) will be facing Crisis and Emergency acute food insecurity; of this total, 175,000 will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and 25,000 in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). For the post-harvest period of October-December 2015, it is projected that the situation will marginally improve to 190,000 (17% of total population) people being in Crisis and Emergency (i.e. 170,000 in Crisis and 20,000 in Emergency). However, the situation is expected to deteriorate in the first quarter of 2016 (January-March) with approximately 270,000 people (24% of the total population) facing Crisis and Emergency acute food insecurity. This is attributed to dwindling cereal stocks at household level; insecurity that will affect market access and re-stocking; a depreciating currency and scarcity of dollars in the economy that will further drive market prices upwards. The FSNMS Round 16 assessments found out that the major shocks faced by the rural households in Eastern Equatoria State include lack of free access/movement, returnees/IDPs living with households and weeds and pests for the farming communites. Up to 47% of households were found to have a poor to borderline food consumption score with 45% of households facing moderate hunger.

Assessment results show that households source 45% of their food from markets and 39% from own production; these households were also found to allocate 62% of their monthly expenditure on food purchases. The greatest contributor to household income is sale of livestock and livestock products (31%), sale of agricultural products (29%) and sale of natural resources (20%). The nutrition situation in Eastern Equatoria remains Serious, with GAM rates between 10 to 15 per cent. FSNMS R16 data recorded a statewide GAM rate of 11.1%, a sustained situation from the GAM rates of 10.0% and 11.0% in FSNMS rounds 15 and 14 respectively. However recent SMART surveys conducted in Kapoeta North in April, Lopafon in une, Ikotos and Kapoeta East in August 2015 also reported mixed results ranging from Alert to Critical malnutrition levels with GAM rates of 15.2%, 18.4%, 13.6% and 8.4% respectively. Nutrition situation is thus Alert in Kapoeta East, Serious in Ikotos and Critical in both Kapoeta North and Lopafon counties, based on the SMART surveys. Previous SMART survey results in Kapoeta North (GAM rate of 12.6%) in June 2014 and in Torit (GAM rate of 8.0%) in October 2014 had reported similar range of GAM rates. The state is vulnerable to food insecurity shocks such as droughts and to disease outbreaks with risk to increased acute malnutrition levels. However, no disease outbreak was reported during the period of review.

CENTRAL EQUATORIA In September, the food security situation in Central

Equatoria State (CES) is fairly good with majority of

the population being classified as Stressed (IPC Phase

2), with the counties of Yei, Morobo and Kajo-keji

being classified as Minimal (IPC Phase 1). Overall,

205,000 people, representing 13% of the total

population are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and

Emergency (IPC Phase 4) acute food insecurity out

of which 170,000 are in Crisis and 30,000 are in

Emergency. In the first projection period of

October-December, the number of people in Crisis

and Emergency acute food insecurity will reduce to

130,000 (8% of the total population) and even reduce

further to 125,000 people (8% of total population) in

the January-March 2016 projection period.

According to the FSNMS Round 16 food security

indicators, the major shocks affecting the rural

households are lack of free access/movement (21%),

21

returnees and IDPs living with households (20 per

cent), high food prices (17%), weeds and pests (15%)

and insecurity/violence (13%). Majority of the

households (67%) are not adopting any coping

strategies and only 20% of households are adopting

both crisis and emergency coping strategies. This can

be attributed to availability of food stocks in all

counties following the first harvest in all state

counties, with Morobo having the best harvest.

Nevertheless, the assessment shows that 76% of

households are having a poor to borderline food

consumption score, which could be explained by the

fact that majority of households are consuming

cereals and milk products and not other protein rich

foods. For example, fishing is mainly found in

Terekeka county where a paltry 4% of households

responded as depending on fishing for food. Because

of the early first harvest, households reported getting

58% of their food from own production and 37%

from markets; this is further supported by the fact

that 33% of their monthly expenditure is on food

items. Due to the first harvest and subsequent cereal

availability and surplus, households reported that they

get 43% of their income from agriculture and crop

sales, 22% from casual (farm work) and skilled labour

and 13% from sale of natural resources.

The state is prone to isolated cases of insecurity

which include armed robberies and inter-clan /

communal fighting, although these are expected to

reduce as implementation of the peace agreement

progresses. The armed robberies are especially

responsible for disruptions to market supplies, which

coupled with inaccessible feeder roads because of the

rainy season, are responsible for increases in

commodity prices in the markets. Nevertheless,

markets in the state are accessible throughout the

year with supplies coming from local production and

neighbouring countries.

The nutrition situation in the Central Equatoria state is stable with GAM rates of <10% according to rounds of FSNMS data. The statewide GAM rate of 3.7% in FSNMS round 16 indicates an Acceptable nutrition situation in the rural counties, and a slight improvement of the Alert GAM rate of 7.2% in FSNMS Round 15 assessment. A SMART survey conducted in Yei county in July 2015 recorded a GAM rate of 6.9%, indicating an Alert nutrition situation. However the nutrition situation is worse and at Serious levels (GAM rate of 10-14.9%) among the Juba PoCs and Urban populations. A SMART survey conducted among the PoCs in July 2015

reported a GAM rate of 14.8%. An Urban Food Security & Nutrition Assessment among Juba urban poor settlements in August 2015 reported a GAM rate of 12.2%. The urban population are vulnerable to shocks in increased food prices and disease outbreaks frequently experienced in Juba, thereby aggravating their food consumption and nutrition status.

Overall, Central Equatoria State is expected to maintain to face Minimal (in Yei, Morobo and Kajo-keji) and Stressed (in Terekeka, Juba and Lainya) acute food insecurity classifications till March 2016, which shall mark the end of the post-harvest period and start of the lean season. Worth looking out for during this period is the security situation and inflation that is caused by a rapidly depreciating currency and scarcity of dollars in the economy.

WESTERN EQUATORIA The September 2015 IPC analysis for Western Equatoria State (WES) showed that the state is the most food secure with only three (Nagero, Mvolo and Mundri East) of the ten counties facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity. The rest of the counties are facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity. The analysis approximated that in September; only 50,000 people (6% of the total population) were in Crisis food insecurity. This situation is expected to improve (no one in Crisis food insecurity) during the October 2015 to March 2016 period with only Nagero, Mvolo and Mundri East being in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) classification and the rest being in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) classification. The major factor driving this positive change is due to availability of green harvest from the first crop season, availability of green vegetables, fish, groundnuts, sesame, green grams and cassava. More cereals are expected as a result of increased availability from the second harvest, households are expected to reduce spending on staples or purchase the same at reduced prices, and the savings can be used to purchase other food types thus leading to an improved dietary diversity. The FSNMS Round 16 assessment found out that in Western Equatoria state, 76% of households have poor to borderline food consumption. The major shocks reported by the assessed households include lack of free access/movement (21%), returnees/IDPs living with the household (20%) and weeds and pests (15%). 58% of food consumed in the household was sourced from own production and 37% from markets because majority of households had first harvests and are expected to commence the second harvest early next year. This is further supported by the fact that of the total monthly expenditure budget for households, only 33% was committed to

22

purchase of food items from the markets. Despite the availability of food at household level, the dietary diversity score is low for 40% of the respondents. Agricultural and crop sales contributed towards 43% of household income, with casual and skilled labour accounting for 22%, brewing 14% and sale of natural resources 13% of the income. The nutrition situation in Western Equatoria has for a long time remained stable with GAM rates of <10% based on historical data from FSNMS rounds. In the recent FSNMS Round 16 assessment, the nutrition situation in Western Equatoria state was 5.9% indicating Alert situation and a deteriorating situation from the Acceptable situation in the March 2015 FSNMS Round 15 assessment when a GAM rate of 1.8% was recorded. Although, no recent SMART survey data was available during the September analysis, data from nutrition screening and rapid assessments in August-September indicates the a deteriorating nutrition situation in the previously stable Western Equatorial counties of Maridi, Mundri East and Mvolo due to civil insecurity and poor green harvest production and consumption. Nutrition situation is deteriorating to Serious levels in the previously stable Western Equatorial counties of Mundri East and Mvolo due to civil insecurity and poor green harvest production and consumption. The nutrition situation in these counties is affected by conflict and is likely to deteriorate to Serious levels (GAM rate >10%) in the October-December period, if the conflict is not resolved, displacements stop and access to nutrition services improved.

APPENDICES

APPENDIX I: Comparison of Population in Different IPC Phases Since September 2012

Note: prj = Projected

2,290 2,220 3,190 3,435 3,400 3,385 3,675 3,465 3,855 3,955 3,280 3,630 3,750 4,320

850 740

955 1,230 1,015

2,630 1,750 1,260

1,630 2,885 3,575 3,065

1,965 2,170

240 375

1,260

415 245

890

865 1,035 830

415 440

30

40

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

Aug -Sept2012

Oct -Dec2012

Jan -Mar2013

Aug -Sept2013

Oct -Dec2013

Jun -Aug2014

Aug -Sept2014

Oct -Dec2014

Jan -Mar2015

Apr2015

May -Jul 2015

Aug -Sept2015

Oct -Dec2015(prj)

Jan -Mar2016(prj)

Thousands

Stressed Crisis

24

APPENDIX II: Population Breakdown by State Counties for Current Situation and Projection Periods

CENTRAL EQUATORIA

AUGUST-SEPTEMBER 2015 OCTOBER-DECEMBER 2015 JANUARY-MARCH 2016

County Minimal Stressed Crisis Emergency Famine Minimal Stressed Crisis Emergency Famine Minimal Stressed Crisis Emergency Famine

Juba 249,000 150,000 97,000 34,000 - 280,000 144,000 88,000 18,000 - 423,000 208,000 81,000 9,000 -

Kajo-keji 216,000 41,000 14,000 - - 243,000 27,000 - - - 234,000 41,000 - - -

Lainya 87,000 36,000 22,000 - - 124,000 22,000 - - - 126,000 22,000 - - -

Morobo 173,000 19,000 - - - 182,000 10,000 - - - 176,000 20,000 - - -

Terekeka 99,000 54,000 27,000 - - 152,000 18,000 9,000 - - 137,000 27,000 18,000 - -

Yei 226,000 27,000 13,000 - - 226,000 40,000 13,000 - - 230,000 27,000 14,000 - -

EASTERN EQUATORIA



Budi 46,000 52,000 11,000 6,000 - 52,000 46,000 11,000 6,000 - 41,000 58,000 17,000 - -

Ikotos 67,000 42,000 14,000 7,000 - 70,000 42,000 14,000 4,000 - 54,000 53,000 21,000 4,000 -

Kapoeta East 57,000 104,000 28,000 - - 66,000 94,000 19,000 9,000 - 38,000 106,000 29,000 19,000 -

Kapoeta North 41,000 59,000 18,000 - - 47,000 53,000 18,000 - - 30,000 60,000 24,000 6,000 -

Kapoeta South 51,000 28,000 14,000 - - 56,000 23,000 14,000 - - 38,000 33,000 19,000 5,000 -

Lafon 53,000 27,000 47,000 7,000 - 60,000 27,000 47,000 - - 41,000 34,000 54,000 7,000 -

Magwi 123,000 61,000 20,000 - - 133,000 51,000 20,000 - - 125,000 63,000 21,000 - -

Torit 56,000 56,000 21,000 7,000 - 63,000 49,000 28,000 - - 50,000 50,000 43,000 - -

JONGLEI



Akobo 23,000 91,000 23,000 15,000 - 30,000 99,000 15,000 8,000 - 35,000 106,000 18,000 18,000 -

Ayod 23,000 54,000 62,000 15,000 - 46,000 54,000 46,000 8,000 - 44,000 61,000 53,000 18,000 -

Bor South 29,000 136,000 22,000 10,000 - 39,000 136,000 22,000 - - 59,000 161,000 61,000 15,000 -

Canal/Pigi 10,000 2,000 12,000 4,000 - 16,000 12,000 10,000 2,000 - 14,000 12,000 12,000 2,000 -

Duk 9,000 21,000 24,000 6,000 - 18,000 21,000 18,000 3,000 - 15,000 21,000 18,000 6,000 -

Fangak 26,000 60,000 68,000 17,000 - 51,000 60,000 51,000 9,000 - 41,000 57,000 49,000 16,000 -

Nyirol 20,000 41,000 61,000 14,000 - 54,000 61,000 20,000 - - 49,000 63,000 28,000 - -

Pibor 23,000 73,000 11,000 6,000 - 34,000 62,000 11,000 6,000 - 52,000 70,000 35,000 17,000 -

Pochalla 19,000 29,000 13,000 3,000 - 26,000 29,000 10,000 - - 44,000 31,000 13,000 - -

Twic East 18,000 41,000 47,000 12,000 - 35,000 41,000 35,000 6,000 - 32,000 45,000 38,000 13,000 -

Uror 30,000 71,000 81,000 20,000 - 20,000 61,000 101,000 20,000 - 52,000 73,000 63,000 21,000 -

25

LAKES



Awerial 17,000 26,000 86,000 - - 38,000 15,000 77,000 - - 41,000 21,000 79,000 - -

Cueibet 44,000 62,000 62,000 9,000 - 107,000 44,000 27,000 - - 99,000 54,000 27,000 - -

Rumbek Centre 96,000 84,000 60,000 - - 156,000 48,000 36,000 - - 134,000 73,000 37,000 - -

Rumbek East 76,000 66,000 47,000 - - 123,000 38,000 28,000 - - 106,000 58,000 29,000 - -

Rumbek North 14,000 16,000 22,000 3,000 - 27,000 19,000 8,000 - - 25,000 22,000 8,000 - -

Wulu 37,000 26,000 11,000 - - 63,000 7,000 4,000 - - 60,000 11,000 4,000 - -

Yirol East 30,000 43,000 43,000 6,000 - 79,000 24,000 18,000 - - 74,000 37,000 12,000 - -

Yirol West 65,000 57,000 40,000 - - 105,000 32,000 24,000 - - 99,000 49,000 16,000 - -

NORTHERN BAHR EL GHAZAL



Aweil Centre 16,000 49,000 33,000 11,000 - 33,000 65,000 11,000 - - 28,000 72,000 11,000 - -

Aweil East 108,000 242,000 135,000 54,000 - 242,000 242,000 54,000 - - 219,000 274,000 55,000 - -

Aweil North 41,000 136,000 68,000 27,000 - 95,000 150,000 27,000 - - 83,000 166,000 28,000 - -

Aweil South 22,000 66,000 44,000 15,000 - 52,000 81,000 15,000 - - 45,000 90,000 15,000 - -

Aweil West 45,000 136,000 91,000 30,000 - 91,000 181,000 30,000 - - 77,000 200,000 31,000 - -

UNITY



Abiemnhom 3,000 16,000 8,000 5,000 - 6,000 20,000 3,000 2,000 - 9,000 19,000 2,000 2,000 -

Guit - - 11,000 28,000 4,000 - - 15,000 22,000 7,000 2,000 7,000 15,000 20,000 -

Koch - - 21,000 53,000 8,000 - - 29,000 41,000 12,000 4,000 12,000 29,000 37,000 -

Leer - - 17,000 44,000 7,000 - - 24,000 34,000 10,000 3,000 10,000 24,000 31,000 -

Mayendit - - 21,000 53,000 8,000 - - 29,000 41,000 12,000 4,000 12,000 29,000 37,000 -

Mayom 27,000 54,000 72,000 27,000 - 54,000 81,000 27,000 18,000 - 54,000 90,000 27,000 9,000 -

Panyijiar - 27,000 68,000 41,000 - - 27,000 54,000 54,000 - - 34,000 61,000 41,000 -

Pariang 14,000 51,000 58,000 22,000 - 29,000 65,000 36,000 14,000 - 43,000 65,000 29,000 7,000 -

Rubkona - 5,000 145,000 15,000 - - 5,000 145,000 15,000 - 5,000 10,000 140,000 10,000 -

26

UPPER NILE



Baliet - 1,000 15,000 6,000 - - 2,000 17,000 3,000 - - 6,000 41,000 16,000 -

Fashoda 2,000 10,000 21,000 6,000 - 4,000 15,000 17,000 2,000 - 6,000 22,000 13,000 2,000 -

Longochuk - 10,000 43,000 15,000 - 10,000 24,000 27,000 7,000 - 17,000 41,000 21,000 4,000 -

Luakpiny/Nasir 5,000 32,000 146,000 61,000 - 24,000 85,000 110,000 24,000 - 26,000 77,000 141,000 13,000 -

Maban 5,000 32,000 13,000 3,000 - 8,000 37,000 8,000 - - 6,000 42,000 16,000 - -

Maiwut 10,000 20,000 40,000 30,000 - 20,000 40,000 30,000 10,000 - 31,000 52,000 16,000 5,000 -

Malakal - 22,000 146,000 22,000 - - 43,000 117,000 14,000 - 15,000 76,000 99,000 8,000 -

Manyo - 9,000 32,000 5,000 - 2,000 16,000 25,000 2,000 - 3,000 33,000 26,000 3,000 -

Melut 4,000 15,000 49,000 8,000 - 8,000 34,000 30,000 4,000 - 18,000 33,000 9,000 - -

Panyikang - 1,000 16,000 6,000 - - 2,000 18,000 4,000 - - 3,000 37,000 13,000 -

Renk 86,000 60,000 17,000 9,000 - 112,000 43,000 17,000 - - 155,000 18,000 9,000 - -

Ulang 5,000 16,000 71,000 16,000 - 16,000 44,000 44,000 5,000 - 11,000 44,000 50,000 6,000 -

WARRAP



Gogrial East 36,000 65,000 43,000 - - 58,000 72,000 14,000 - - 44,000 81,000 22,000 - -

Gogrial West 114,000 114,000 82,000 16,000 - 147,000 147,000 33,000 - - 116,000 166,000 50,000 - -

Tonj East 34,000 61,000 40,000 - - 54,000 67,000 13,000 - - 41,000 75,000 21,000 - -

Tonj North 53,000 95,000 64,000 - - 85,000 106,000 21,000 - - 65,000 119,000 32,000 - -

Tonj South 39,000 39,000 28,000 6,000 - 50,000 50,000 11,000 - - 39,000 56,000 17,000 - -

Twic 87,000 157,000 105,000 - - 140,000 174,000 35,000 - - 106,000 195,000 53,000 - -

WESTERN BAHR EL GHAZAL



Jur River 81,000 71,000 50,000 - - 101,000 81,000 20,000 - - 82,000 93,000 31,000 - -

Raga 44,000 26,000 18,000 - - 48,000 35,000 4,000 - - 45,000 36,000 9,000 - -

Wau 142,000 47,000 47,000 - - 154,000 71,000 12,000 - - 145,000 72,000 24,000 - -

27

WESTERN EQUATORIA



Ezo 78,000 26,000 - - - 83,000 21,000 - - - 95,000 11,000 - - -

Ibba 37,000 10,000 2,000 - - 41,000 7,000 - - - 45,000 5,000 - - -

Maridi 71,000 20,000 10,000 - - 87,000 15,000 - - - 88,000 16,000 - - -

Mundri East 30,000 18,000 12,000 - - 48,000 12,000 - - - 49,000 12,000 - - -

Mundri West 38,000 11,000 5,000 - - 46,000 8,000 - - - 47,000 8,000 - - -

Mvolo 27,000 21,000 12,000 - - 45,000 15,000 - - - 46,000 15,000 - - -

Nagero 8,000 5,000 3,000 - - 9,000 6,000 - - - 10,000 6,000 - - -

Nzara 60,000 15,000 - - - 64,000 11,000 - - - 69,000 8,000 - - -

Tambura 59,000 11,000 4,000 - - 63,000 11,000 - - - 67,000 7,000 - - -

Yambio 142,000 47,000 - - - 161,000 28,000 - - - 184,000 10,000 - - -

APPENDIX III: Nutrition Data Table

State Source of Data

SMART Surveys (April-September 2015) FSNMS R16 Rapid Assessments/RRM Screening (Reports Proxy GAM and SAM by MUAC)

Jonglei Tearfund-Twic East_0515: GAM 20.1%; SAM 2.3; CDR 0.96; U5DR 1.39 Tearfund-Uror_0515: GAM 23.2%; SAM 4.6%; CDR 1.00; U5DR 1.78 COSVI-Ayod_0515: GAM 22.9; SAM 5.8% (Rapid SMART - RS) IMC-Akobo East_0515: GAM 22.1; SAM 6.3%; CDR 0.59; U5DR 0.87

Nutrition indicators were not computed for Jonglei in R16 assessment as a result of inadequate sample size for anthropometry. More than 10% of the clusters could not be assessed.

Fangak (RRM Apr-May15):

Kuernyang: GAM 16.0%; SAM 2.0%

Juaibor: GAM 6.0; SAM 2.1 Ayod (RRM May15):

Pagil: GAM 7.0%; SAM 1.5%

Haat: GAM 6.0%; SAM 1.2%

Upper Nile State

RI- Maban_0515: GAM 11.7%; SAM 4.8%; CDR 1.52: U5DR 2.50 RI- Longochuk_0515: GAM 19.5%; SAM 7.7%; (Rapid SMART) GOAL-Ulang_0515: GAM 15.3%; SAM 2.6%; CDR 0.36; U5DR 0.61 (RS) UNKEA-Nasir_0615: GAM 19.9%; SAM 5.4; CDR 0.65; U5DR 0.43 MEDAIR-Renk_0715: GAM 17.6%; SAM 4.1; CDR 0.93; U5DR 0.87 NHope-Fangak_0715: GAM 21.5%; SAM 5.5; CDR 1.03; U5DR 0.56 IMC-MalakalPoC_0815: GAM 18.9%; SAM 4.6; CDR 0.39; U5DR 0.38 MEDAIR-RenkIDPs_0815: GAM 21.8%; SAM 4.8; CDR 1.86; U5DR 1.15

Nutrition indicators were not computed for Upper Nile in R16 assessment as a result of inadequate sample size for anthropometry. More than 10% of the clusters could not be assessed.

Ulang (RRM Jun-Jul15):

Makak: GAM 3.8%; SAM 1.0%

Dome: GAM 3.8; SAM 0.2 Maiwut (RRM Jun15):

Pagak: GAM 7.5%; SAM 1.9%

Maiwut: GAM 3.0%; SAM 0.1% Malakal (RRM Aug15):

Wau Shilluk: GAM 7.4%; SAM 0.7% Fashoda (RRM Aug15):

Buroc: GAM 7.9%; SAM 1.1%

29



Unity CARE-Abiemnhom_0415: GAM 26.5%; SAM 8.8%; CDR 0.56; U5DR 1.28 CARE-Mayom_0415: GAM 30.0%; SAM 7.5%; CDR 1.65; U5DR 1.76 CARE-Pariang_0515: GAM 23.4%; SAM 5.3%; CDR 0.81; U5DR 1.92 IRC-Panyijiar_0515: GAM 24.2%; SAM 7.2%; CDR 2.56; U5DR 2.69 CWW-BentiuPoCs_0815: GAM 34.1; SAM 10.5; CDR 1.29; U5DR 0.17

No FSNMS was conducted in Unity due to unique security challenges An EFSA MUAC assessment results could not be used due to poor data quality but indicated proxy GAM rates of >30%.

Rubkona (RRM Aprl15):

Ngop: GAM 4.5%; SAM 0.9% Mayendit (RRM Jul15):

Dublual: GAM 38.0%; SAM 10.5% Reconnaissance Mission (Nov15):

Guit-Bil: GAM: N/A; CDR 0.58; U5DR 1.01

Koch-Boaw: GAM 4.8; SAM 0.0; CDR 0.13; U5DR 0.22

Mayendit: o Dublual: GAM 9.4; SAM 2.4; CDR 0.33; U5DR

0.58 o Jaguar/Thaker: GAM 10.0; SAM 2.2; CDR 0.44;

U5DR 0.58

NBeG IRC-Aweil S_0415: GAM 24.9%; SAM 4.6%; CDR 0.10; U5DR 0.18 MC-Aweil C_0415: Gam 23.1%; SAM 5.5%: CDR 0.48; U5DR 1.33

24.2% are acutely malnourished (WHZ<-2/oedema) and 5.0% severely malnourished (WHZ<-3/oedema) [n=595] A further deterioration from GAM and SAM rates of 19.7% and 5.3% respectively in R15 (n=599)

No RRM or Rapid assessments conducted.

WBeG Johanniter-Jur River_0615: GAM 9.8%; SAM 2.1% (No mortality data) MoH/UNICEF-Wau_0915: GAM 10.2%; SAM 1.4%: CDR 1.37; U5DR 1.33 MoH/UNICEF-Raga_0915: GAM 9.3%; SAM 2.4%; CDR 0.50: U5DR 0.77

12.1% are acutely malnourished (WHZ<-2/oedema) and 3.7% severely malnourished (WHZ<-3/oedema) [n=380] No change from GAM and SAM rates of 12.0% and 1.7% respectively in R15 (n=436)

No RRM or Rapid assessments conducted

30



Lakes CCM-Yirol E_0415: GAM 13.9%; SAM 1.0%; CDR 0.27; U5DR 0.35 SCI-Wulu_0415: GAM 7.4%; SAM 0.5%; CRD 0.64; U5DR 0.63 IMC-Awerial/Minkerman_0815: GAM 14.1%; SAM 3.2%:

CDR 0.98; U5DR 0.0

14.4% are acutely malnourished (WHZ<-2/oedema) and 3.3% severely malnourished (WHZ<-3/oedema) [n=389] No significant change from GAM and SAM rates of 12.2% and 3.4% respectively in R15 (n=614)

No RRM or Rapid assessments conducted since September 2014.

Warrap GOAL-Twic_0315: GAM 25.6% SAM 6.3%; CDR 0.56; U5DR 1.44 ACF/WVI-GogrialW_0515: GAM 29.1%; 4.0%; CDR 0.91; U5DR 0.91 WVI-TonjN_0615: GAM 11.6%; 1.0%; CDR 0.06: U5DR 0.2 WVI-GogrialE_0615: GAM 18.3%; SAM 4.0%: CDR 0.15: U5DR 0.4

17.6% are acutely malnourished (WHZ<-2/oedema) and 4.2% severely malnourished (WHZ<-3/oedema) [n=433] No significant change from GAM and SAM rates of 17.2% and 4.4% in R14 (n=453). In R15, a Calculated GAM of 21.2% (SD of 1) was used due to wide observed SD (>1.2) [n=465].


EES SMOH-Kapoeta N_0415: GAM 15.2; SAM 2.8%; CDR 0.21; U5DR 0.25 SCI-Lopafon_0615: GAM 18.4%; SAM 5.0%: CDR 0.32; U5DR 0.45 MoH/UNICEF-Ikotos_0815: GAM 13.6%; SAM 3.3%: CDR 0.32: U5DR 0.61 MoH/UNICEF-KapoetaE_0815: GAM 8.4%; SAM 1.6%; CDR 0.12; U5DR 0.31

11.1% are acutely malnourished (WHZ<-2/oedema) and 1.7% severely malnourished (WHZ<-3/oedema) [n=422] No change from GAM and SAM rates of 10.0% and 3.5% respectively in R15 (n=457)


CES CWW-JubaPoCs_0715: GAM 14.8%; SAM 3.2%: CDR 0.73: U5DR 0.52 MoH/UNICEF-Yei_0715: GAM 6.9%; SAM 1.1%; CDR 0.55: U5DR 0.93

3.7% are acutely malnourished (WHZ<-2/oedema) and 0.7% severely malnourished (WHZ<-3/oedema) [n=458] An improvement from the


31



GAM and SAM of 7.2% and 0.8% respectively in R15 (n=503), but similar to the GAM and SAM rates of 4.1% and 1.0% respectively in R14 (n=526)

WES No SMART surveys conducted so far in the counties of this state in 2014.

5.9% are acutely malnourished (WHZ<-2/oedema) and 0.3% severely malnourished (WHZ<-3/oedema) [n=340] No significant change from GAM and SAM rates of 5.8% and 0.6% in R14 (n=538). In R15, a Calculated GAM of 1.8% (SD of 1) was used due to wide observed SD (>1.2) [n=422].


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APPENDIX IV: Nutrition Map, September 2015

33

APPENDIX IV: Nutrition Map, October – December 2015

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