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Integrated health impact assessment of transport policies- Jochen Theloke
Integrated health impact assessment of
transport policies
Presentation on the Air Quality Conference in Athens
21. March 2012
J. Theloke, U. Kugler, C. Schieberle, T. Kampffmeyer, J. Roos, A. Kuhn,
S. Torras Ortiz, R. Friedrich
Integrated health impact assessment of transport policies- Jochen Theloke
Introduction
The most important environmental health risks in Europe are caused by
exposure to fine particles (PM10, PM2.5, EC, OC, PNC)
Current PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations result in an average reduction of
life expectation of the European population of a few (ca. 3 to 5) months.
The PM10 thresholds are frequently exceeded.
Thus a further reduction of the fine particle concentration is necessary.
This should be done with efficient measures, i.e. measures with the lowest
costs per unit of health risk reduced (e.g. expressed in DALYs – disability
adjusted life years).
The aim of TRANSPHORM is to identify and assess European transport
policies to reduce health risks on different scales.
Integrated health impact assessment of transport policies- Jochen Theloke
Approach
Development of mitigation and policy options for reducing transport
related particle emissions
Distinction between urban and European scale related measures
Developing and applying methodologies for assess these options
Compile a reference scenario for future years
Apply the full chain approach
Ranking the options for identifying the most cost efficient options
(Health Impacts avoidance costs) [Euro2010])
-
((Measure costs +Utility Losses) [Euro2010])
Integrated health impact assessment of transport policies- Jochen Theloke
Reference Scenario (2005, 2020, 2030)
For non transport related sectors we apply the MEGAPOLI scenario
(based on TIMES Modelling)
For the transport sector (road transport, aviation, navigation and
railways) has been generated activity data sets from TREMOVE
(based on PRIMES Energy modelling) (TML, Griet de Ceuster)
The Emission factors have been generated in the TRANSPHORM
project by LAT (Zissis Samaras), DLR (Andreas Petzold) and IVL
(Jana Moldonova)
The emissions have been calculated by IER (incl. Spatial resolution
for EU27)
The spatially resolved data set for EU27 has been integrated in the
TNO grid by TNO
Integrated health impact assessment of transport policies- Jochen Theloke 5
Elementar Carbon (EC)Emissions in EU27+NO+CH
Integrated health impact assessment of transport policies- Jochen Theloke
PM2.5-Emissions in Europe (EU27 + NO + CH)
Integrated health impact assessment of transport policies- Jochen Theloke
Total Particle Number (PN) Emissions in Europe (EU27+NO+CH)
Integrated health impact assessment of transport policies- Jochen Theloke
Urban related measures
Enhanced use of bicycles in cities
Traffic management (Green Wave, improved operation of signalized intersections)
Low emissions zones
Ban of through-traffic of heavy trucks
Increase in the cost of motoring (City toll)
Increase in the cost of motoring (Parking management)
Freight Consolidation Centre
Bus fleet with alternative engines (fuel cells, electric engines)
Freight transport in pipelines (CargoCap)
E-Logistics for commercial vehicles in cities
E and I city transport concept
Integrated health impact assessment of transport policies- Jochen Theloke
Measures with impact to the whole EU
Enhanced use of public traffic
Speed limit (motorways)
Speed limit (rural)
Car pooling (Promotion of low emission vehicles (E-cars))
Enhanced use of biofuels
Increase in the cost of motoring (Road pricing)
Increase in the cost of motoring (Fuel taxes)
Further emission limits (EURO 7/8)
Abrasion and noise optimised road surfaces and vehicle parts
Teleconferencing (ICT); Teleworking; Teleshopping
Enhanced use of public traffic
Integrated health impact assessment of transport policies- Jochen Theloke
Measures related to other traffic modes
Differentiation of track access charges for rail transport
Further development of emission limits in inland waterway transport
Kerosene Tax for aviation
Low emission zones for construction equipment
Shift from aviation to railway
Electric operations in harbours
DPF for navigation
Low NOx-zones for shipping
Differentiation of track access charges for rail transport
Further development of emission limits in inland waterway transport
Kerosene tax for aviation
Integrated health impact assessment of transport policies- Jochen Theloke
No Measure Rel.
for
city
t/n
Spatial
scale
Time
scale
Vehicle
category
EF
aff.
Stock
aff.
Traffic
volume
Modal
shift
Pollutants
1 Enhanced use of
bicycles in cities x n urban 2020 PC/MC x x x AP GHG
noise
2 Enhanced use of
public traffic x n urban 2020 PC/MC x x x AP GHG
3 Speed limit
(motorways) n motor-way 2020 All x GHG (AP)
4 Speed limit (rural) n motorway 2020 All x GHG (AP)
5 Car pooling (E-
cars, hybrid
vehicles)) x t
urban
rural 2030 PC x x x AP GHG
6 Traffic
management x t urban 2030 All x AP GHG
8 Low emission
zones x n urban 2020 All x x x AP GHG
Matrix for categorizing road transport measures
Integrated health impact assessment of transport policies- Jochen Theloke
Measure based scenario for road transport
Integrated health impact assessment of transport policies- Jochen Theloke
Measure based scenario for road transport
Integrated health impact assessment of transport policies- Jochen Theloke
Analysis of policies and measures
Traffic management RT 4
Description
The aim of this measure is to smooth the traffic flow by avoiding multiple braking and acceleration. This can be
done by e.g. optimising and coordinating the traffic light control in an urban area.
Abatement potential
In a research project in the German city of Ingolstadt, the control of traffic lights was optimised so that a smoother
traffic flow was reached. From data on reduced waiting times and reduced number of stops necessary, GEVAS
(2008) assumed a 19% reduction in fuel consumption. It is assumed that the degree of implementation will be
relatively low (20%) as this measure involves high costs. Implementation Possible to implement: 2030 Costs
Costs involve the installation of a traffic management system and personnel costs. The city of Ingolstadt estimates
costs of 350,000 € for the installation of a traffic management system (Ingolstadt 2008). Further costs for operation,
maintenance and human resources are not stated. It is assumed that at minimum one extra personnel of 50,000 €
per year is needed. On the other hand, there are fuel cost savings due to the improved traffic flow.
Synergies/interactions with other environmental objectives (eg climate change) + Reduction of fuel consumption + Reduction of waiting times
Integrated health impact assessment of transport policies- Jochen Theloke
Methodology and tool for
impact assessment
15
The Full Chain Approach
Integrated health impact assessment of transport policies- Jochen Theloke
Ecosense Approach
Estimate the damages to human health caused by the emissions of
the city by using the results of the atmospheric modelling and
exposure modelling and applying concentration- response as well as
exposure-response relationships;
Aggregate the different health endpoints into DALY (disability
adjusted life years) or QUALY (quality adjusted life years);
Convert the aggregated endpoints and the impacts on climate change
into a common monetary unit to allow comparisons and cost-benefit
analyses.
Result: Ranking of single measures based on specific cost
efficiency
Integrated health impact assessment of transport policies- Jochen Theloke
Emission
Delta
Concentrations
Case-
Scenario
Base-
Scenario
SR-Matrices
Ecosense Approach
Integrated health impact assessment of transport policies- Jochen Theloke
Pollutant
Concentration in
µg/m3
The typically higher pollutant levels in urban areas for
most pollutants can be referred as urban increment, i.e.,
the difference between regional and urban background
pollutant concentrations
Rural background
Urban background
Integrated health impact assessment of transport policies- Jochen Theloke
rurali
avgUE
UEi
iiurbani CuA
EC
where
Ci urban = Urban increment of pollutant i.
EiUE = Total emission of pollutant i within the urban entity in tons.
AUE = Urban entity area in km2.
uavg = Urban entity average wind speed in m/s.
Ci rural = Rural background concentration of pollutant i in µg/m3
ωi, φi, and γi = Multiple-regression parameters for pollutant i.
Urban increment
developed by Torras Ortiz (2010), USTUTT
Torras Ortiz, S. (2010). "A hybrid dispersion modelling approach for quantifying and assessing air quality in Germany with
focus on urban background and kerbside concentrations," submitted Doctoral Thesis, University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart.
A model to estimate the urban increment (i.e., the difference between regional and
urban background pollutant concentrations) was included in the analysis within
MEGAPOLI. The modelling approach is based on a multiple regression analysis with
the following components:
Integrated health impact assessment of transport policies- Jochen Theloke
Exposure modelling
Integrated health impact assessment of transport policies- Jochen Theloke
Exposure modelling- Outdoor
Integrated health impact assessment of transport policies- Jochen Theloke
Exposure modelling- indoor
2 ) indoor m-environments
Integrated health impact assessment of transport policies- Jochen Theloke 23
Exposure modelling- personal exposure
Integrated health impact assessment of transport policies- Jochen Theloke
Conclusion
• An integrated health impact assessment approach for transport
policies will be developed in the TRANSPHORM project
• A full chain approach will be applied (incl. urban increment and
exposure modelling)
• 33 transport related policy options have been identified and will be
analysed in the TRANSPHORM project according to their efficiency
(costs versus benefits (avoided monetarized human health impacts))
and effectiveness (costs versus avoided DALYs).
• Other effects e.g. change of noise levels, congestion/time losses
and gains and change of number of accidents will be also
considered.
Integrated health impact assessment of transport policies- Jochen Theloke
And many thanks for the good cooperation in TRANSPHORM to my
colleagues: Christian Schieberle, Ulrike Kugler, Melinda Uzbasich, Sona
Orlikova, Markus Blesl, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Antoon Vischedijk,
Jeroen Kuenen, Dick van den Hout, Zissis Samaras, Jana Moldonova,
Andreas Petzold, Griet de Ceusters and others from the TRANSPHORM
team
Thank you for your attention