International Applied Reliability Symposium Applied Reliability Symposium June 5 - 7, 2013 Minneapolis, Minnesota The 2013 ARS, North America will be held at the Minneapolis Marriott

Event Program

InternationalApplied Reliability Symposium

June 5 - 7, 2013Minneapolis, Minnesota

The 2013 ARS, North America will be held at the Minneapolis Marriott City Center in

Minneapolis, Minnesota. Participants must make hotel reservations on their own, either at

the Marriott or at another hotel of their choosing. For details, please see page 4.

THEME: Sharing applications, success stories and lessons learned in reliability and maintainability engineering.

28 PRESENTATIONS: The program offers a wide variety of results-oriented presentations by actual practitioners in industry and government. Topics include: Reliability Program Planning, Design for Reliability (DFR), FMEA, Reliability Growth Analysis, Accelerated Testing, Life Data Analysis, Repairable System Analysis, Life Cycle Costs, Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM), Optimized Maintenance Planning, Risk Analysis, and Reliability ROI.

2 TUTORIALS: The program also includes longer and more in-depth tutorials by experts in the field of reliability analysis:

Determining the Right Sample Sizes for Your Test: Theory and Application by Ed Pohl of the University of Arkansas

How to Develop an Effective Reliability Plan by Carl Carlson of ReliaSoft Corporation

industry

and

governMent

sharing success stories

and

lessons learned

prograM highlights

other syMposia

The Symposium is held annually at locations throughout the world. Other scheduled events include:

Europe April 2013

South America May 2013

India September 2013

Asia Pacific October 2013

http://www.ARSymposium.org

venue

1.888.886.0410 or [email protected] 1

The International Applied Reliability Symposium provides a forum for expert presenters from industry and government to come together with reliability practitioners from all over the world to discuss the application of reliability principles to meet real-world challenges. The Symposium has been designed to encourage results-oriented presentations with interactive discussions about best practices, success stories and lessons learned. Most of the presenters have been applying reliability, maintainability and related techniques in their day-to-day work for years.

Symposium Theme: "Sharing applications, success stories and lessons learned in reliability and maintainability engineering."

The Symposium's 28 presentations and 2 tutorials cover a range of subjects, such as:Reliability Program PlanningDesign for Reliability (DFR)Accelerated TestingFailure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA)Life Data Analysis

Reliability Growth Analysis Repairable System AnalysisOptimized Maintenance PlanningRisk AnalysisReturn on Reliability Investment

2013 international applied reliability syMposiuM - north aMerica

June 5 - 7, 2013Minneapolis, Minnesota

http://www.ARSymposium.org/northamerica/

The 2013 event is organized by ReliaSoft Corporation (www.ReliaSoft.com) and theSystem Reliability Center (SRC.AlionScience.com), with technical sponsorship from the

ASQ Reliability Division (www.ASQ.org/reliability).

http://www.ARSymposium.org/northamerica/2

2013 Wednesday - June 5th Thursday - June 6th Blue Room Red Room Blue Room Red Room

7:00 - 8:00 Registration and Check-in from 7:00 to 8:30 a.m. Continental breakfast available.

(You also have the option to check in on Tuesday from 4 - 7 p.m.)

Continental breakfast available.

8:00 - 9:00

Design for Reliability (DFR): Key Process Elements and the Application of Reliability Demonstration Tests Within the DFR Process

Richard B. RamirezViaSat Corporation

Practical Applications of the Three-Parameter Weibull

Tom RyanRolls-Royce

Welcome Address(starts at 8:30 a.m. in the New Century Theatre Room)

9:00 - 9:15 15 Minute Break

9:15 - 10:15

Integrate FMEA into Firmware Test Plan Development

Keyanna QiResearch Products Corporation

FRACAS – The Key To A Dynamic Reliability Program

Keith M. JanasakRaytheon Company

Integrated FMEAs – A Key to Organizational Efficiency

John Gebhard Rolls-Royce

Improvement of Electrical Submersible Pump Optimization and Reliability Using the Cox Proportional Hazards (PH) Model for Time-Dependent Data

K.C. SnyderBaker Hughes Incorporated

10:15 - 10:30 15 Minute Break

10:30 - 11:30

Relianomics: Changing the Mindset and Units of Measure for Reliability

Stan StephensonHalliburton

A One-Off Design with a World Class Maintenance Strategy

John HolmesMainnovation

Failure is ALWAYS an Option

Harland MacKenzieDana – Power Technology Group

Integrated Logistics Support - Processes and Applications

Richard CoronadoReliable Systems Solutions

11:30 - 1:00 1 Hour 30 Minute Lunch Break

1:00 - 2:00

Highly Accelerated Life Testing (HALT) – An Effective Tool for Streamlining Reliability Program Processes and Reducing Costs

Christopher LaplanteQualmark Corporation

The Applications of Reliability Growth on Hybrid Drive Systems

Tajure NemuParker Hannifin

Continuous Assessment Using an Integrated Data Management System

Andrew FooteAlion Science and Technology Corporation

Design for Reliability at the Board Level

Randy SchuellerDfR Solutions


2:15 - 3:15

Exploring a Scalable Field Reliability Management System: Roles, Tools and Processes to Support 2,500% Fielded Product Growth

Georgios SarakakisTesla Motors

Assessing Reliability in a Competitive DoD Procurement

D. David Dylis Alion Science and Technology Corporation

Applying Accelerated Testing in Lean New Product Development

John J. PaschkewitzWatlow

Accelerated Life Test Guide Lines

Amnon Ganot Orbotech Ltd.


3:30 - 4:30

Influencing Project Genetics: Reliability Before Design

Mike SilvermanOps A La Carte

Combinatorial Testing for a Complex Medical Device: A Case Study

Bart ChaseGE Healthcare

Success Is Around the Corner with Design for Reliability

Dev RahejaRaheja Consulting, Inc.

Developing a Reliability Test Using Product Performance Data

Rahul K. RajgarhiaBoston Scientific


4:45 - 5:45

Design for Reliability Criticality When Developing New Technology and Entering a New Market

Dane RodgersAllison Transmission, Inc.

Reliability Data — Analysis vs. Plug and Chug

Elizabeth BakerCoherent, Inc.

Determining the Right Sample Sizes for Your Test: Theory and Application

Ed Pohl University of Arkansas

5:45 - 6:006:00 - 6:30 Welcome Reception

6:00 - 7:006:30 - 7:00 Hosted Dinner 6:30 - 9:00 7:00 - 9:00

Blue-S11

Blue-S12

Blue-S10

Blue-S1

Blue-S2

Blue-S3

Blue-S4

Blue-S5

Blue-S6

Blue-S7

Blue-S8

Blue-S9

Red-S1

Red-S2

Red-S3

Red-S4

Red-S5

Red-S6

2013 ars, north aMerica

You may attend sessions in either room.


Friday - June 7thBlue Room Red Room

7:00 - 8:00 Continental breakfast available.

8:00 - 9:00

Simulating System Capability to Reduce Life Cycle Cost and Capitalize on Reliability Growth

Justin WoulfeWPI Services

Reliability Program for Medical Devices

Julio PulidoReliaSoft Corporation


9:15 - 10:15

Estimating Future Product Returns

Mark WagnerWatlow

Case Study Using Monte Carlo Simulation to Analyze Complex Redundant Systems

Andrew J. MillerNorthrop Grumman Electronic Systems

10:15 - 10:30 15 Minute Break

10:30 - 12:00

How to Develop an Effective Reliability Plan

Carl CarlsonReliaSoft Corporation

12:00 - 12:30 Closing and Awards Presentation

2013 Wednesday - June 5th Thursday - June 6th Blue Room Red Room Blue Room Red Room

7:00 - 8:00 Registration and Check-in from 7:00 to 8:30 a.m. Continental breakfast available.

(You also have the option to check in on Tuesday from 4 - 7 p.m.)

Continental breakfast available.

8:00 - 9:00

Design for Reliability (DFR): Key Process Elements and the Application of Reliability Demonstration Tests Within the DFR Process

Richard B. RamirezViaSat Corporation

Practical Applications of the Three-Parameter Weibull

Tom RyanRolls-Royce

Welcome Address(starts at 8:30 a.m. in the New Century Theatre Room)


9:15 - 10:15

Integrate FMEA into Firmware Test Plan Development

Keyanna QiResearch Products Corporation

FRACAS – The Key To A Dynamic Reliability Program

Keith M. JanasakRaytheon Company

Integrated FMEAs – A Key to Organizational Efficiency

John Gebhard Rolls-Royce

Improvement of Electrical Submersible Pump Optimization and Reliability Using the Cox Proportional Hazards (PH) Model for Time-Dependent Data

K.C. SnyderBaker Hughes Incorporated

10:15 - 10:30 15 Minute Break

10:30 - 11:30

Relianomics: Changing the Mindset and Units of Measure for Reliability

Stan StephensonHalliburton

A One-Off Design with a World Class Maintenance Strategy

John HolmesMainnovation

Failure is ALWAYS an Option

Harland MacKenzieDana – Power Technology Group

Integrated Logistics Support - Processes and Applications

Richard CoronadoReliable Systems Solutions

11:30 - 1:00 1 Hour 30 Minute Lunch Break

1:00 - 2:00

Highly Accelerated Life Testing (HALT) – An Effective Tool for Streamlining Reliability Program Processes and Reducing Costs

Christopher LaplanteQualmark Corporation

The Applications of Reliability Growth on Hybrid Drive Systems

Tajure NemuParker Hannifin

Continuous Assessment Using an Integrated Data Management System

Andrew FooteAlion Science and Technology Corporation

Design for Reliability at the Board Level

Randy SchuellerDfR Solutions


2:15 - 3:15

Exploring a Scalable Field Reliability Management System: Roles, Tools and Processes to Support 2,500% Fielded Product Growth

Georgios SarakakisTesla Motors

Assessing Reliability in a Competitive DoD Procurement

D. David Dylis Alion Science and Technology Corporation

Applying Accelerated Testing in Lean New Product Development

John J. PaschkewitzWatlow

Accelerated Life Test Guide Lines

Amnon Ganot Orbotech Ltd.


3:30 - 4:30

Influencing Project Genetics: Reliability Before Design

Mike SilvermanOps A La Carte

Combinatorial Testing for a Complex Medical Device: A Case Study

Bart ChaseGE Healthcare

Success Is Around the Corner with Design for Reliability

Dev RahejaRaheja Consulting, Inc.

Developing a Reliability Test Using Product Performance Data

Rahul K. RajgarhiaBoston Scientific


4:45 - 5:45

Design for Reliability Criticality When Developing New Technology and Entering a New Market

Dane RodgersAllison Transmission, Inc.

Reliability Data — Analysis vs. Plug and Chug

Elizabeth BakerCoherent, Inc.

Determining the Right Sample Sizes for Your Test: Theory and Application

Ed Pohl University of Arkansas

5:45 - 6:006:00 - 6:30 Welcome Reception

6:00 - 7:006:30 - 7:00 Hosted Dinner 6:30 - 9:00 7:00 - 9:00

Tutorial 2

Tutorial 1

Red-S9

Red-S10

Red-S11

Red-S12

Red-S13

Red-S14

Blue-S13

Blue-S14

Red-S7

Red-S8

syMposiuM prograM

It is not necessary to pre-register for selected presentations.


Session 1 9:15 to 10:15 a.m. on Wednesday, June 5thblue rooM Keyanna Qi and Eric Brodsky - Research Products CorporationIntegrate FMEA into Firmware Test Plan Development FMEA has been widely used as a powerful tool for design for reliability; the FMEA methodology can also be applied to firmware system validation and test case design. Comprehensive understanding of the critical functions and the potential failure modes are keys to a successful firmware test plan development and test cases design. By integrating FMEA into the firmware testing process, the efficiency and effectiveness of the firmware validation process can be intensely improved.

In this presentation, the author will introduce an innovative test development methodology for the firmware system validation process. The FMEA is integrated into test plan development and detailed test cases design. The simplified FMEA process dramatically improves the structure of the test plan for designing sufficient test cases (e.g., reduces unnecessary test cases to save testing time). The failures identified during the test are reported and evaluated by the team for an effective control plan, which leads to corrective actions. This new process has significantly reduced testing time and ensures that the product is released with higher quality.

red rooM Keith M. Janasak and Ken D. Millspaugh - Raytheon Company FRACAS - The Key to A Dynamic Reliability ProgramAnalysis of Raytheon programs indicates an aggressive FRACA program that spans the product life cycle of subassembly production, system level integration and test, and field deployment is one of the most critical reliability program tasks that can be performed. Raytheon SAS is currently implementing a comprehensive FRACA program that will standardize our FRACA activities around the new Synthesis-enabled XFRACAS tool. Information integration with related knowledge systems and reliability analysis tools is a key area of emphasis. Providing FRACAS users with a comprehensive look at product reliability performance history, combined with the ability to look across the enterprise for trends will realize significant productivity improvements. Perhaps the most anticipated productivity improvements will be the ability to utilize the reliability performance history data in XFRACAS to create reliability performance models, and dynamically leverage those models to keep related reliability analyses such as FMEAs and Predictions current.

Welcome Address 8:30 to 9:00 a.m. on Wednesday, June 5th

To begin the event program, Pantelis Vassiliou will represent the Symposium’s organizers by delivering a brief welcome address.

Pantelis Vassiliou is President and CEO of ReliaSoft Corporation. He directs and coordinates ReliaSoft’s R&D efforts to deliver state-of-the-art software tools for applying reliability engineering concepts and methodologies. He also consults, trains and lectures on reliability engineering and related topics to Fortune 1000 companies worldwide. Mr. Vassiliou is the original architect of ReliaSoft’s Weibull++® software and is ReliaSoft’s founder. He holds an M.S. degree in Reliability Engineering from the University of Arizona.

Wednesday June 5, 2013

The 2013 North America Applied Reliability Symposium will be held at the Minneapolis Marriott City Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Please make hotel reservations on your own, either at a hotel of your choosing or at the Minneapolis Marriott City Center. A rate of US$169.00 for Single/Double (US$121.00 for government employees) is available to Symposium participants. To be eligible for this rate, rooms must be reserved by May 15th. Please refer to “ReliaSoft Corporation” and/or the “Applied Reliability Symposium” when making your reservations.

NOTE: Given seasonal occupancy rate conditions, the hotel might engage in promotions that occasionally offer a lower rate. Be sure to check the online rates before booking to take advantage of any additional discounts that may be available.

Contact Information and Reservations:

• Address: Minneapolis Marriott City Center, 30 S. 7th Street, Minneapolis, MN 55402• Telephone Reservations: 1.612.349.4000• Website: http://www.Marriott.com/hotels/travel/mspcc-minneapolis-marriott-city-center/

event location and hotel accoMModations



Session 3 1:00 to 2:00 p.m. on Wednesday, June 5thblue rooM Christopher Laplante - Qualmark CorporationHighly Accelerated Life Testing (HALT) – An Effective Tool for Streamlining Reliability Program Processes and Reducing Costs Reliability faces the same pressures as all other groups in industry today. Budget and manpower reductions, faster product development cycles and higher demands for product reliability and durability push the limits of what can be achieved using traditional methods.

Highly accelerated life testing (HALT) is a qualitative life test that is becoming increasingly popular for finding weak links in a product’s design. HALT can be a valuable tool for reliability engineering to reduce the test time necessary to achieve meaningful MTTF/MTBF data from accelerated life testing (ALT) and reliability growth testing (RGT), while reducing the total number of units needed in these tests. HALT can also provide data that can be fed back into FMEA/FMECA predictions to improve their accuracy. This is valuable not only for the product currently in design, but also for the evaluation of engineering changes throughout the product’s life cycle, and for predictions for future generations of the product.

This presentation provides a basic introduction to HALT, then describes how to incorporate HALT into the reliability plan for a new product to realize the advantages described above. It also discusses modifications to the traditional HALT procedure that can increase its effectiveness in particular reliability applications.

red rooM Tajure Nemu and Prasad Venketiswaran - Parker HannifinThe Applications of Reliability Growth on Hybrid Drive SystemsHybrid drive system reliability has improved remarkably over the past few years. This is due to an effective execution of TAAF (Test, Analyze, Assess and Fix) reliability principles coupled with the use of the reliability testing methodology. The achievements include an increased system uptime from < 2% in 2007 to 98% in 2012. We were able to implement over 1200 corrective actions, which improved hybrid drive system reliability growth enormously. In addition, improved reliability has been achieved though accelerated reliability testing and effective use of TAAF principles in the following hybrid components: Power Drive Unit, Accumulators, Hoses, the Hydraulic Brake Module and the Electrical Control Module. The test, find and fix approaches have proven to be effective when resources and time are limited. For a newly developed product such as the hydraulic hybrid drive system, the current reliability can be considered to be a great achievement.

This presentation will include: 1) Hydraulic hybrid drive system overview. 2) Reliability growth application. 3) MTBF tracking, measurement. 4) TAAF methodology. 5) Product life cycle cost analysis.

Session 2 10:30 to 11:30 a.m. on Wednesday, June 5thblue rooM Stan Stephenson and Curtis Jacks - Halliburton Relianomics: Changing the Mindset and Units of Measure for ReliabilityRegardless of how successful a reliability program is technically, it may be viewed as just another cost or time adder to a project unless one learns the language of “Relianomics.” Relianomics changes the focus from a product’s probability of failure to the improved economics that result from the improved reliability of the product. Every company has different economic metrics, and part of Relianomics is expressing the improvements in terms of the metrics most valued by the company.

This presentation will show Relianomics examples at Halliburton ranging from simply calculated values to distributions of values solved by Monte Carlo simulation. The values to be demonstrated include both reduced cost from reliability growth and the often overlooked value from cost avoidance. Methods will be demonstrated to present simply calculated values in such a way that the chance of the values being questioned is minimized. A brief primer on economics will also be presented to help everyone better understand how to implement Relianomics.

red rooM John Holmes and James Ross - MainnovationA One-Off Design with a World Class Maintenance Strategy This presentation will discuss how Encana Natural Gas utilized a reliability roadmap to create the maintenance program for a greenfield liquid natural gas fueling station. The foundation of this were the FMEAs created for this equipment utilizing RCM++. This was the first ever design of its kind used to fuel tractor trailer trucks hauling process water for the oil & gas drilling operations in northwest Louisiana. The presentation will also discuss how Encana was able to replicate the maintenance strategies developed to many additional mobile fueling units derived from the fixed station design that started the project.


Wednesday June 5, 2013Session 4 2:15 to 3:15 p.m. on Wednesday, June 5thblue rooM Georgios Sarakakis and Noah Lassar - Tesla Motors Exploring a Scalable Field Reliability Management System: Roles, Tools and Processes to Support 2,500% Fielded Product Growth In this presentation, we’ll discuss the quest to achieve a scalable field reliability management system to match Tesla Motors’ aggressive production ramp up. We’ll discuss our strategy to support a 2,500% electric vehicle field product growth. (Tesla has evolved from producing the Roadster — a total of 2,500 vehicles since the company’s inception — to a planned 20,000 Model S vehicles just for 2013.)

We’ll discuss the development of a closed-loop field reliability system from a blank slate, looking into fundamental concepts of reliability information and its flow. This will include a discussion of how we have dealt with a) centralizing information in one hub, b) capturing, reviewing and reporting on relevant data and c) assessing risk and setting priorities.

The presentation will also describe the roles and responsibilities for assigning problems, forming teams and leading field items to resolution — touching on organizational effectiveness aspects. We’ll also provide a view on the processes that are required to sustain and scale the system, and make it central and relevant to the organization. We’ll provide observations, pitfalls to avoid and lessons learned. The focus of this discussion is to open up a dialogue on reliability management best practices.

red rooM D. David Dylis - Alion Science and Technology Corporation and Jeff Peterson - US Army AMRDEC

Assessing Reliability in a Competitive DoD ProcurementThe Weapon Systems Acquisition Reform Act of 2009 and DoDI 5000.02 Operation of the Defense Acquisition System are aimed at improving the outcome of defense acquisitions through the use of competition. To improve contractor performance, these latest reforms mandate the use of competitive prototyping and require that programs offices provide the option to introduce competition throughout the life of program. Competitive prototyping is a risk mitigation tool that offers several advantages:

• Proves concept designs are sound.• Provides competition during the development effort.• Allows efficient and effective communication among operational users, the procurement agency, and commercial contractors to identify

marketplace capabilities and best solutions available.• Facilitates firm fixed-price contracting for production.• Helps ensure development efforts remain constrained.

The US Army is currently in the Technology Development (TD) phase of a competitive prototyping program. This presentation will address the overall prototyping process highlighting reliability testing processes and lessons learned.

Session 5 3:30 to 4:30 p.m. on Wednesday, June 5thblue rooM Mike Silverman and Les Warrington - Ops A La Carte Influencing Project Genetics: Reliability Before Design Reliability of products is frequently considered to be a technical challenge alone and the responsibility of engineering disciplines. The point in the development life-cycle where reliability activities have been undertaken has moved forward in recent decades, driven by efficiency, time-to-market and cost considerations. This paper considers the logical extension of this trend, namely of reliability influence before project conception. In the current generation reliability practices, analysis of reliability is usually considered from early design phases forward, not so much during early conceptual studies. But this means that reliability potential is constrained and that design analyses and simulation are used simply to identify and mitigate reliability risks of the chosen concept. Testing is targeted on outstanding risks.

red rooM Bart Chase and Mohamed Yahiaoui - GE Healthcare Combinatorial Testing for a Complex Medical Device: A Case StudyExhaustive testing of complex systems such as medical equipment is often unpractical. Combinatorial testing is a strategy to scale the testing effort to a manageable size. This testing approach is rooted in Design of Experiments (DOE) techniques. Until recently, its use has been limited due to the lack of efficient algorithms. Newly developed algorithms however, provide a practical means of generating effective combinatorial tests. These algorithms allowed us to design a test plan for a complex medical imaging system.

In this work, we execute the combinatorial test plan then compare defect discovery effectiveness and test coverage with prior methods. Additionally, other factors such as length of testing and cost of test execution are evaluated.


thursday June 6, 2013

Session 6 4:45 to 5:45 p.m. on Wednesday, June 5thblue rooM Dane Rodgers - Allison Transmission, Inc. Design for Reliability Criticality When Developing New Technology and Entering a New Market Introducing new technology and simultaneously growing into a new market presents inherent challenges to a company during product development, largely due to the number of “unknowns” that each of those program attributes contain. With the expectations in the commercial, transportation industry to deliver highly reliable products with long life cycles, a wide spectrum of end-user duty cycle requirements and at a competitive cost, product development is driven to more heavily rely on Design for Reliability (DFR) principles as a result of moving outside of current products, markets and experience.

This presentation takes a case study of a recent transmission development program from a company known for world-class reliability, and provides a walk through the evolution of its DFR practices, articulating why those principles became so critical and how they were utilized to provide confidence in the organization about the product being delivered to market.

This case study will include discussion about early specification assumptions, DFMEA’s and supplier risk assessments and associated DVP&R plans, validation testing and failure analysis, and how each of these drove an increased focus on reliability principle utilization. Lastly, an overview of the broader organizational impacts being driven from the lessons learned throughout this activity.

red rooM Elizabeth Baker - Coherent, Inc. Reliability Data — Analysis vs. Plug and ChugReliability software has made our lives easier in many ways, but there is a danger in just blindly plugging numbers into the software without engaging the brain equally. This talk will demonstrate how simply running the numbers without understanding the problem and the question that needs to be answered can send you down the wrong path. In the process, some of the questions that need to be asked before undertaking any reliability analysis will be covered, such as:

• Why do you need the analysis? What is the business need?• Why is this failure behaving in this manner?• Why does the data look as it does, do the answers make sense?• Does the answer relate to the requirement for the analysis?


Session 7 8:00 to 9:00 a.m. on Thursday, June 6thblue rooM Richard B. Ramirez - ViaSat Corporation Design for Reliability (DFR): Key Process Elements and the Application of Reliability Demonstration Tests Within the DFR Process Design for Reliability (DFR) is a process that needs to start from the initial design concept phase and continues through the design sustaining phase of the design life cycle. This presentation will cover a high level overview of the seven key DFR process element steps and the key strategies that have proven successful in achieving reliability goals and metrics. The application of Reliability Demonstration Tests (RDT) will be presented as one set of activities that were utilized within the larger architecture of the DFR process. The development of the design “Usage Model” is a fundamental building block for any DFR process and, in this presentation, the usage model for a medical device is developed and applied to the Reliability Block Diagram (RBD) and RDT test process. The field return warranty analysis is used as an example for DFR process feedback and ongoing product improvement initiatives. An effective DFR process results in customer satisfaction, development cost efficiency and competitive advantage.

Welcome Reception 6:00 to 7:00 p.m. on Wednesday, June 5th A welcome reception on Wednesday evening (with hosted bar and light appetizers) provides a relaxing way to end the first day of the Symposium. This casual gathering will be held from 6:00 to 7:00 p.m.

See next page for the other abstract for this session...



Session 9 10:30 to 11:30 a.m. on Thursday, June 6thblue rooM Harland MacKenzie - Dana - Power Technology GroupFailure is ALWAYS an Option During R&D, understanding the variables that go into product performance and life estimation is generally quite challenging. Bench testing of components and sub-systems is often used to fill in data that can be difficult to estimate from design models. The problem is, many models and test setups do a poor job of duplicating the impact of field conditions. This presentation will outline the steps taken to identify a potential durability issue in the design of a new charge air cooler. Early bench testing showed what appeared to be fatigue or vibration related failures in the mounting system. An extensive series of vibration tests, with ever increasing levels of complexity, was undertaken. Ultimately we were unable to reproduce any of the failure modes, and the failures were assumed to be from the highly accelerated nature of the sub-system test. The development of new methods and specifications ended up being the key output of the effort. The focus of this presentation will be about learning not only from failures of components but also how to improve a testing program based on the “failure” of the effort to aide in the development program.

red rooM Richard Coronado - Reliable Systems SolutionsIntegrated Logistics Support – Processes and ApplicationsIntegrated Logistics Support (ILS) is an engineering discipline that has developed with the evolution of technologies that have created significant support challenges. This session will present how ILS is used to plan, develop, acquire and sustain well-defined, affordable support strategies to meet end-user requirements. When ILS is implemented early in systems design, companies in both the commercial and military sectors will develop viable design alternatives with the goal of improving the overall system availability, while reducing the system life cycle costs. The major points covered in this presentation include: 1) Goals of Integrated Logistics Support, 2) ILS and the Acquisition Cycle and 3) Creating the Design Solution.

Session 8 9:15 to 10:15 a.m. on Thursday, June 6thblue rooM John Gebhard - Rolls-RoyceIntegrated FMEAs – A Key to Organizational EfficiencyApplying a failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) technique is a common way to analyze the risk of a system. As systems grow, larger and more complex FMEAs are helping teams organize their risk mitigation priorities and design approaches. Imagine a situation where your own company had generated — through the best intentions — as many as four different FMEA types, which did not communicate together. Rolls-Royce Corporation in Indianapolis recognized a global issue that needed to be addressed. The approach taken was to integrate these FMEAs into a single system, which captured all of the interfaces between different groups in order to save time and money in the process.

red rooM K.C. Snyder and David Beck - Baker Hughes IncorporatedImprovement of Electrical Submersible Pump Optimization and Reliability Using the Cox Proportional Hazards (PH) Model for Time-Dependent DataA critical part of successful electrical submersible pump (ESP) operation in the oil & gas industry is a monitoring/optimization program that prevents premature failures, optimizes efficiency and increases production. The overall industry increase in secondary recovery techniques, such as gas injection and water-flooding, has important implications for ESP operation and reliability. In addition, ESPs must perform in increasingly harsher environments, including steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD), arctic and deepwater environments. The Baker Hughes Vision™ web-based well monitoring system facilitates decision making by managing data collection, storage, visualization and analysis. The system is currently deployed in more than 3,000 wells in 18 countries. With a typical sampling frequency of 20 minutes and 12 channels or more of data, the Vision system has collected a massive database of well data and run-life data since its launch in early 2008. Data mining techniques such as the Cox proportional hazards (PH) model for time-dependent data are being developed at Baker Hughes to determine the most influential factors for ESP reliability, and to design improved alarms for exception reporting. This presentation discusses the progress and methodology for using the Cox PH model to improve the capability of the Vision system to extend ESP reliability and performance.

Session 7 (continued) 8:00 to 9:00 a.m. on Thursday, June 6thred rooM Tom Ryan - Rolls-RoycePractical Applications of the Three-Parameter WeibullThe 3-parameter Weibull distribution has several advantages over the 2-parameter Weibull. If sufficient data exists, it can provide better event forecasting than the 2-parameter solution. A known failure-free period with a high level of confidence can be used in logistics planning and warranty cost estimation. Additionally, when failure data fits the 3-parameter distribution, it can facilitate and focus the root cause investigation. This presentation will discuss the differences between the 2- and 3-parameter Weibull distributions, the advantages and disadvantages of both, when it is appropriate to use the 3-parameter, and how the 3-parameter distribution can provide better insight and forecasting.


thursday June 6, 2013Session 10 1:00 to 2:00 p.m. on Thursday, June 6thblue rooM Andrew Foote - Alion Science and Technology CorporationContinuous Assessment Using an Integrated Data Management SystemA continuous assessment process enables an organization to continue to define and document the capability and limitations imposed by the level of reliability, maintainability and supportability on the system, with an emphasis on the operational impacts. Continuous assessment can be optimized through the introduction of an integrated data and information management system to monitor lessons learned and bridge to future product development.

Effective data collection and analysis is absolutely essential to accurately identifying problem areas and identifying solutions that offer the greatest impact to the bottom line. Properly executed and integrated, data collection and analysis can eliminate costs associated with inefficient or inaccurate problem identification, allowing engineers and managers to concentrate on those issues affecting reliability, maintainability and supportability. Effectively identifying the needs of a data collection program early is vital to the success and accuracy of the data analysis it later supports. Unfortunately, needs are often misidentified or change as the data collection process continues. Solutions must then be identified to bridge the gap between the needs of the data collection program and the existing data. An integrated data management system increases the value of the data from being a historical record to a forward-thinking utility.

red rooM Tom O’Connor and Randy Schueller - DfR SolutionsDesign for Reliability at the Board LevelWith the increasing complexity of electronic circuits and the introduction of new components and material technologies, ensuring the reliability of electronic designs is becoming increasingly difficult. This presentation addresses the methods currently used to predict reliability at the design stage. Many companies are now reconfiguring their design teams into DFR/DFX design teams.

This presentation will address this change. It will focus on design activities that ensure that reliability is being designed. It will discuss What, Who, When and How reliability should be inserted in the DFR/DFX design process. Finally, the presentation will discuss how reliability simulation helps to speed up the design cycle, improve communications and encourage concurrent engineering.

Session 11 2:15 to 3:15 p.m. on Thursday, June 6thblue rooM John J. Paschkewitz - Watlow Applying Accelerated Testing in Lean New Product Development Lean New Product Development (Lean NPD) is knowledge based and focused on up-front learning to develop more robust designs and eliminate the waste of iterative rework when problems are found later in development. This presentation discusses an opportunity to improve reliability through better understanding of customer needs, design for reliability and accelerated testing to find and correct failures much earlier. A summary of key Lean NPD elements is provided. The presentation focuses on using Design of Experiments (DOE) to select materials and components, qualitative accelerated stress testing to find limits and weaknesses, and quantitative accelerated life testing to estimate product reliability. Test to failure and failure analysis are emphasized to maximize learning and support robust design decisions for greater reliability.

are you interested in presenting next year?Do you have a useful reliability application or lesson learned that you would like to share with your colleagues in the field? Would you like to receive complimentary registration to the Symposium? Consider presenting at next year’s event!

The “Call for Presentations” for the 2014 ARS, North America will be posted soon after the completion of this year’s event. The proposals will be reviewed in December 2013.

As the primary author of a presentation delivered at the ARS, you will receive complimentary registration to the event, a “Presenter” shirt with the ARS logo and our sincere appreciation for helping to make the Symposium thought-provoking and rewarding for your fellow reliability professionals. You will also have a chance to win one of the cash prizes that will be awarded to the top three presentations, as voted by attendees.

For specific details, including the required proposal submission form, please visit http://www.ARSymposium.org/present.htm.

See next page for the other abstract for this session...



Hosted Dinner 6:30 to 9:00 p.m. on Thursday, June 6th On Thursday evening, we hope you’ll join us for a hosted bar and buffet dinner from 6:30 p.m. to 9:00 p.m. You are welcome to bring a guest to this event, which provides another opportunity to interact with colleagues in a comfortable and relaxed setting. As with the rest of the Symposium, the typical style of dress will be “business casual.”

Tutorial 1 4:45 to 6:00 p.m. on Thursday, June 6thblue rooM Ed Pohl - University of ArkansasDetermining the Right Sample Sizes for Your Test: Theory and ApplicationOne of the most critical tasks in designing a reliability test is determining how many samples are needed. If the sample size is too large, unnecessary costs may be incurred. If the sample size is too small, the uncertainty of the reliability estimates can be unacceptably high. This tutorial discusses popularly used methods in determining sample sizes in reliability tests. These methods are grouped into two general approaches. The first is the estimation approach where the sample size is determined based on the desired confidence interval width. The second is the risk control approach where the goal is to determine sample size in order to control the Type I and Type II errors. The tutorial will cover the theory behind those two approaches and provide application examples for each method.

Session 12 3:30 to 4:30 p.m. on Thursday, June 6thblue rooM Dev Raheja - Raheja Consulting, Inc. Success is Around the Corner with Design for Reliability Look at your warranty costs and you will find design flaws. And when you look for design flaws, you will find specification flaws. Just managing these two functions guarantees success with very high probability. The focus of this presentation is to learn to develop comprehensive requirements by using the evidence based methods of requirements analysis, and design out flaws by using the reliability-critical systems industry methods of risk analysis including preliminary hazard analysis, functional FMEA and fault tree analysis. Case histories of successful reliability outcomes will be presented.

red rooM Rahul K. Rajgarhia, David J. Smith, Joseph C. Walker and Daniel J. Cooke - Boston Scientific

Developing a Reliability Test Using Product Performance DataPre-market laboratory testing to ensure cardiac lead reliability is under intense scrutiny in the community of device users, regulators and manufacturers. In this study, the performance of marketed leads and failure analysis of malfunctioning leads returned from the clinic are used to develop and validate a test for conductor reliability. The test applies a cyclic bending deflection to sections of lead from full devices while monitoring conductor resistance to detect fracture. The bending deflection is similar to that published for the shoulder region in chronically-implanted cardiac leads during extreme arm motions. Three different cardiac lead designs are tested, with different field performance with respect to conductor fracture rate per year and fracture failure mechanism.

The test produces a rank order of time-to-failure in the three lead designs, which matches the rank order in the field performance data despite the fact that the number of arm motions per implant month would vary among patients. The multiple fracture surface morphologies observed in field returns are reproduced in the test failures. The reliability test is indicative of the relative field performance among three different lead designs. The test performance of the marketed leads is used as a baseline for comparison to new lead designs.

Session 11 (continued) 2:15 to 3:15 p.m. on Thursday, June 6thred rooM Amnon Ganot - Orbotech Ltd. Accelerated Life Test Guide LinesThis presentation will focus on a recommended procedure to prepare and conduct an accelerated life test (ALT) using a guided template. A flowchart that will help you decide on the test duration as well as sample size will be presented, including software tools. A real test example will be demonstrated.


Session 14 9:15 to 10:15 a.m. on Friday, June 7thblue rooM Mark Wagner - WatlowEstimating Future Product ReturnsPredicting the quantity of future returns has advantages for cost containment and financial planning. This presentation introduces a powerful approach that can be used to predict future product returns and allow the reliability professional to work with the appropriate resources (CFO, CEO, upper management) to help generate appropriate mitigation plans.

Based on the product return history and leveraging the Weibull++ forecasting tool, estimates of future product returns can be generated. Ideally if a rolling, regular analysis can be maintained, a proactive forward-focused approach to impending product return issues can be established, thereby thwarting unexpected cost expenditures.

red rooM Andrew Miller - Northrop Grumman Electronic Systems Case Study Using Monte Carlo Simulation to Analyze Complex Redundant SystemsMany systems under development specify certain reliability criteria desired by the customer and end user. Often this includes serial reliability and mission reliability. The customer uses serial reliability as a measure of the resources a system will require to support it in the field. Maximizing serial reliability will result in a system with a lower support footprint allowing customer deployment resources to be used elsewhere. Mission reliability is a measure of the likelihood that a system will be able to start and complete a mission. A common method of improving system mission reliability is to add redundancy into the system. When a few items within a system are redundant, the mission reliability is easily calculated. In more complex situations where there may be hundreds or even thousands of redundant items, the calculation can quickly become cumbersome. One way to simplify this would be to use a Monte Carlo (MC) simulation to model the redundancy to simulate actual system mission reliability. In this case study, we will show an example MC simulation of the mission reliability of an Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) antenna having hundreds of radiating elements.

Friday June 7, 2013Session 13 8:00 to 9:00 a.m. on Friday, June 7thblue rooM Justin Woulfe - WPI Services and Oskar Tengo - Systecon ABSimulating System Capability to Reduce Life Cycle Cost and Capitalize on Reliability Growth Using a simulation-based methodology is ideal to analyze the effects of reliability growth on system capability. It is also useful in justifying reliability growth programs as a life cycle cost (LCC) reduction tool. Using an advanced logistics simulation tool to analyze system performance and life cycle cost as part of a robust decision model, it is shown how an engineer can analyze the effects of various scenarios, the cost impact of decisions, and the resulting mission capability that is expected, quickly and accurately as part of the business case development, proposal development or continuing operations.

red rooM Julio Pulido - ReliaSoft CorporationReliability Program for Medical DevicesDesign for Reliability (DFR) programs do not work in an organizational vacuum. To be successful, the program should be integrated into what is called an Advanced Product Quality Process (APQP) or a Design for Six Sigma (DFSS) process. APQP is a framework of procedures and techniques used to develop products in industry, particularly the automotive industry. It is quite similar to the concept of Design for Six Sigma.

When the DFSS and DFR approaches are integrated in your product development processes, the results are an enterprise-wide quality- and reliability-centered culture with great productivity benefits. This presentation focuses on the required steps to develop a Design for Reliability program from the ground up in an APQP or DFSS design environment, and its benefits in terms of warranty cost and time to market.

interested in sponsorship or exhibitor opportunities?Becoming an ARS sponsor or exhibitor is a great way to support the reliability and maintainability engineering profession, and to gain exposure for the products and services that your organization can provide to Symposium attendees. While attending the 2013 ARS, we hope you’ll take advantage of the daily continental breakfast and catered breaks between sessions to explore some of the solutions that will be demonstrated by exhibitors at this year’s event.

If you’re interested in becoming a sponsor or exhibitor for 2014, please contact [email protected] for more information. Several different sponsorship levels have been established to meet your organization’s particular interests and needs.


Friday June 7, 2013Tutorial 2 10:30 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. on Friday, June 7thblue rooM Carl Carlson - ReliaSoft CorporationHow to Develop an Effective Reliability PlanEvery company desires to be a leader in achieving high reliability for its products and processes throughout the service life. This objective can be challenging, given cost and timing pressures experienced by companies around the world today. In order to achieve the highest possible reliability, it is often necessary to develop and implement a Reliability Program Plan. Developing effective reliability plans requires using skills from the body of knowledge called “Reliability Management,” in addition to the subject of “Reliability Engineering.” This naturally brings certain topics and questions into view:

• What is a Reliability Plan and how should it be developed? • Which reliability tools should be included in a Reliability Plan and how are these tools selected? • When should Reliability Plans be originated, who should be involved and what approvals are required? • What are the skills needed to develop Reliability Plans? • How do you ensure that your Reliability Plan is successfully implemented to the desired results?

These questions and more will be covered in this comprehensive tutorial.

Awards Presentation and Closing 12:00 to 12:30 p.m. on Friday, June 7th

In order to recognize outstanding contributions to the discussion at the event, “Excellent Presentation Awards” will be granted to the primary authors of the top three presentations (as voted by attendees). Ballots and voting instructions will be distributed during registration/check-in. The awards will be presented during this short session at the conclusion of the Symposium.

Choose the sessions that you will attend The 2013 Symposium offers a choice of 28 presentations and 2 expert tutorials. You can use the matrix on pages 2 and 3 to mark the sessions that you plan to attend.

Vote for the top 3 presentations you attendedPlease remember that you will have an opportunity to vote for your three favorite presentations. Awards will be presented during the short closing session on Friday.

Take advantage of opportunities to converse with colleaguesThe catered breaks between sessions, welcome reception on Wednesday evening and the hosted dinner on Thursday provide good opportunities to talk with — and learn from — fellow reliability practitioners.

Learn about available software tools and servicesWe encourage you to spend some time visiting the exhibit booths to learn about a variety of available products and services.

Make the Most oF your syMposiuM experienceMeet Colleagues, Share Ideas, Explore Available Solutions

2013 International Applied ReliabilitySymposium, North America

Industry and government sharing applications, success stories and lessons learned.

June 5 - 7, 2013 in Minneapolis, MinnesotaRegistration Information - One Form Per Attendee Advanced Registration (must be received by April 12, 2013) $995.00 Standard Registration $1195.00 Full-Time Student (Student ID Required) $495.00

Submit Registration Via Phone, Fax, Web or Mail:Phone: +1.520.886.0410 Fax: +1.520.886.0399 Web: http://www.ARSymposium.org/register.htm Mail: ReliaSoft Corporation, 1450 S. Eastside Loop, Tucson, AZ, 85710-6703, USAPayment Method Company Purchase Order (attached)We accept Purchase Orders from government and industry on NET 30 terms

Check/Money Order Payable to ReliaSoft Corporation

Credit Card Order (Vcode and credit card billing address are required. Please indicate the billing address below or provide it separately.)

Credit Card: VISA MASTERCARD AMERICAN EXPRESS

Card Number: _____________________________________________ Exp: _______________ Vcode: _______________

Name on Card: __________________________________ Signature: __________________________________________

Attendee Information Billing Information (if other than attendee) Same as credit card billing address. Same as credit card billing address.

Name: Name:

Company: Company:

Address: Address:

City, State, Zip:(Province, Country)

City, State, Zip:(Province, Country)

Phone: Phone:

Fax: Fax:

E-mail: E-mail:

Will you be attending the hosted dinner? (check one) ____ With guest ____ Without guest ____ NoWhat size do you prefer for the complimentary polo shirt? (circle one) S M L XL XXLWould you like to share your contact information with other participants? (check one) ___ Yes ___ No

Additional Details

• Travel & Accommodations: Attendees are responsible for their own travel arrangements and hotel reservations. • Substitutions: Substitutions are allowed provided that ReliaSoft is notified prior to the event start date. • Cancellations: Cancellations received up to 10 working days prior to the event start date will be entitled to a refund of the registration fee. After this

period, all cancellations will be subject to the entire fee. If purchasing a software/training bundle, seminar cancellations are not refunded; however, you may substitute another attendee or transfer to another course (see “Transferring” below).

• Transferring: Provided that ReliaSoft receives notification prior to the event start date, you may transfer to another scheduled event once at no cost; a small fee will be assessed for each additional transfer. If the price for the new event is higher, you will be billed for the difference. There are no refunds when transferring to an event with a lower fee.

• No Shows: Registrants who do not attend the event and who do not notify ReliaSoft prior to the start date will be subject to the full registration fee and will not have the ability to transfer the registration.

• Event Cancellation: Although unlikely, ReliaSoft reserves the right to cancel an event at any time up to 2 weeks prior to the start date at ReliaSoft’s discretion, or at any time prior to or during the course due to circumstances outside ReliaSoft’s control (including natural disaster, act of terror, etc.). If this occurs, you will automatically be transferred to the next upcoming event. If transfer is not acceptable, registration fees will be refunded upon request. ReliaSoft is not responsible for any other costs that you may incur, including non-refundable airline tickets.

• Video/Photograph Disclaimer: By registering for this event, you recognize that ReliaSoft Corporation and its affiliates might occasionally take photos or video footage of the event, and you agree to ReliaSoft’s Video/Photograph Disclaimer Policy.

• ARS Registration Fee Includes: Attendance to your choice of presentations, the event Proceedings and any other handouts, daily continental breakfast and refreshments during the breaks, the Wednesday night reception and the Thursday night dinner. A certificate of attendance will be provided. Attendees are eligible for 0.1 Educational Units per contact hour and 1 Certified Reliability Professional (CRP) course credit.

international applied reliability syMposiuM

north aMerica 2013

Applied Reliability Symposiumc/o ReliaSoft CorporationWorldwide Headquarters1450 S. Eastside LoopTucson, AZ 85710-6703

Prst StdU.S. Postage

PAIDTucson, AZPermit #541

Documents

International Applied Reliability Symposium Applied Reliability Symposium June 5 - 7, 2013 Minneapolis, Minnesota The 2013 ARS, North America will be held at the Minneapolis Marriott