International Conference on Establishment Surveys

Montreal, 2007

Richard Rosen, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics rosen.richard@bls.gov

Any opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not constitute policy of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Adding New Data Elements to an Ongoing Survey: Operational and Response Issues

Current Employment Statistics Survey

One of the oldest and largest US Surveys Number of workers, payroll and hours Monthly Quick turnaround:

Reference period is the pay period of the 12th

12 collection days Data published first Friday of following month

Data closely watched by policymakers, financial markets, media, business, labor

Current Data Items

All Employees Woman Employees Production/Construction/

Nonsupervisory Employees Payroll Hours Overtime (Manufacturing)

New Data Items

All Employee Payroll Hours Overtime (Manufacturing)

Gross Monthly Earnings (GME)

Reason for New Data Items Production workers only comprise about

80% of total, therefore the hours/earnings measures are not comprehensive

Research showed that more respondents could provide total payroll and hours

GME: broader measure of earning wanted by BEA for personal income and GDP

Data Item Issues: OLD

Production/Construction/Nonsupervisory Definition not clearly understood Hard to obtain from payroll records Data item response about 40% for

payroll/hours

Data Item Issues: NEW

Availability of Hours for Supervisors/managers, etc.

Multiple payrolls (i.e.. Managers paid biweekly, Nonsupervisory paid weekly)

Gross Monthly Earnings: New concept, different time period

Tasks

Forms Design Systems Updates

Two processing/estimation systems Six collection systems Data transport system

Estimator for GME Train interviewers and other staff

Planning

Began in 2003 for implementation in 2005

Teams to work on all major aspects Forms Systems Edits Estimation

Forms

How to get additional data items on form (twice as many items)

How to handle multiple payrolls Separation of GME from other items

Different concept/definition Different time period (entire month) Different “reasons for change”

Forms-Cont.

Interdisciplinary Team Developed four different layouts Expert review Two rounds of cognitive field tests

· Downey, Goldenberg, Rosen, Gomes, Manning, “Cognitive Testing of New Forms for the Current Employment Statistics Survey”, ASA, August 2005.

Bureau of Labor Statistics Report on U.S. Department of LaborEmployment, Payroll, and Hours -- Transportation, Communication, andPublic Utilities, Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and ServicesThis report is authorized by law 29 U.S.C. 2. Your cooperation is needed to make the results of this survey comprehensive, accurate, and timely.The Bureau of Labor Statistics and the State Agency collecting this information will use the information you provide for statistical purposes onlyand will hold the information in confidence to the full extent permitted by law.

Form ApprovedO.M.B. No. 1220-0011

Report Number Industry

For Location:

,

Please retain for your records

: 1-

A. Contact person, in case of questions: Your Name

Title Phone Number

E-mail Address

FAX Number

B. Please provide the number and location of establishments covered by this report. Number of establishments City County State

C. Please check one: Production workers are paid: each week every 2 weeks twice a month once a month other, specify:

D. Please complete columns 1-5 for the single pay period checked above which includes the 12th of the month. Detailed directions are on the back.

ReferencePeriod

Please report dataonly for the payperiod that includesthe 12th of themonth

(1)All employees:

Report the number ofpaid employees whoworked during orreceived pay for anypart of the pay periodthat includes the 12thof the month

(2)Women

Employees:

Report thenumber ofemployees fromcolumn 1 who arewomen

(3)Nonsupervisory

Employees:

Report thenumber ofemployees fromcolumn 1 who arenonsupervisoryworkers

(4)Nonsupervisory

Employees Payroll:

Report the total non-supervisory worker payroll,including overtime andexcluding lump sum pay-ments for the pay periodthat includes the 12th of themonth

OMIT CENTS

(5)Nonsupervisory

Employees Hours

Report the totalnonsupervisoryworker hours paid,including overtime,for the pay periodthat includes the12th of the monthOMIT FRACTIONS

(6)

Com Cm oe dn et

BLSUseOnly

LP12=DEC $

OMIT CENTS

01=JAN $OMIT CENTS

02=FEB $OMIT CENTS

03=MAR $

OMIT CENTS

04=APR $

OMIT CENTS

05=MAY $

OMIT CENTS

06=JUN $

OMIT CENTS

07=JUL $

OMIT CENTS

08=AUG $

OMIT CENTS

09=SEP $

OMIT CENTS

10=OCT $

OMIT CENTS

11=NOV $

OMIT CENTS

12=DEC $

OMIT CENTS

E. Please report comments on significant changes in your employment, payroll, or hours on the back. Also list the corresponding comment code in column 6.BLS-790 H Rev Jul 96

We estimate that it will take an average of 7 minutes to complete this form each month including time for reviewing instructions, searchingexisting data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing this information. If you have anycomments regarding these estimates or any other aspect of this survey, send them to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Division of MonthlyIndustry Employment Statistics (1220-0011), 2 Massachusetts Avenue, NE, Washington, DC 20212. Persons are not required torespond to the collection of information unless it displays a currently valid OMB control number.

CES Collection Form-NewCurrent Employment Statistics Report Form — Service Providing U.S. Department of Labor

START HERE for Report Number What and who to count: See reverse side of this form. Same pay schedule for all employees? Enter the information requested in Pay

Group 1 below. Different pay schedules for some employees—for example, weekly pay for some

and monthly for others? Enter the information for one group in Pay Group 1 on this page and for the second group in Pay Group 2 on the next page.

If this information is not correct, please tell the data specialist. Your name: Title:

Phone: Ext: Fax: E-mail:

Title: Phone: Ext: Fax: E-mail:

THIS FORM REQUESTS INFORMATION FOR: , Location: Industry: UI: /

Your report #

FOR MORE INFORMATION: 1-

ALL EMPLOYEES IN PAY GROUP 1 A. Employees receive pay: (check one) …… Each week Every 2 weeks Twice a month Once a month

B. Do employees receive commissions? …… Yes No (IF YES) .. Employees receive commissions: (check one) Each week Every 2 weeks Twice a month Once a month If you checked one of the boxes above, report commissions in Column 4 for the most recent complete period available.

Less often than once a month. Enter 0 in Column 4 but include in Gross Monthly Earnings (Column 7) when paid. (IF NO) .... Enter 0 in Column 4.

C. Report columns 1-6 for the pay period that includes the 12th of the month Report columns 7-8 for the

entire previous month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Month

Employee

Count

Women Employee

Count

Payroll, Excluding

Commissions (Whole dollars)

Commissions Paid at Least Once a Month

(Whole dollars)

Hours, Including Overtime

(Whole hours)

Reason for Large

Changes (D1-D2 below)

Gross Monthly Earnings, previous

calendar month (All workers)

Reason for Large Changes

(D1-D3 below)

All Workers

$ $

Nonsupervisory Workers

$ $

$

All Workers $ $

Nonsupervisory Workers

$ $

$

All Workers $ $

Nonsupervisory Workers

$ $

$

All Workers $ $

Nonsupervisory Workers

$ $

$

All Workers $ $

Nonsupervisory Workers

$ $

$

All Workers

$ $

Nonsupervisory Workers

$ $

$

All Workers $ $

Nonsupervisory Workers $ $

$

D. Reason for Large Changes: To explain changes of 25% or more, enter numbers from the list below into columns 6 and 8. You may enter one or two numbers per month into each column.

D1. Changes in Employment (Columns 6 and 8) D2. Changes in Pay and Hours (Columns 6 and 8) D3. Changes in Gross Monthly Earnings (Column 8 ONLY)

01 Seasonal increase 08 Strike 20 Wage rate decrease 40 Shorter scheduled workweek 28 Stock options exercised and distributed 02 Seasonal decrease 12 Internal reorganization-decrease 21 Wage rate increase 41 Longer scheduled workweek 29 Severance pay distributed 03 More business/expansion 13 Internal reorganization-increase 25 Higher hourly earnings for 46 Workers on unpaid vacation 30 Change in number of pay periods 04 Less business/contraction 19 Employment returns to normal piecework or incentive pay 50 Bad weather 31 Bonuses, executive pay, or profit 05 Short-term project starting 09 Temporary shutdown 26 Less overtime pay 55 Return to normal following distributions 06 Short-term project ending 86 Permanent shutdown 27 More overtime pay bad weather 93 Quarterly or annual commissions paid 07 Layoff 37 Other reason 32 More/fewer commissions paid 38 Other reason, pay or hours 95 Other reason

Edits: No Real History What would relationship be between All

Employee Earnings and Production Worker Earnings? General expectation that it would be higher,

but by how much GME even more difficult

Inclusion of bonuses, stock options, severance pay could really skew data

Made some initial assumptions; revised as actual data became available

Respondents

How to notify respondents of change?

How will respondents react? More data items Increased burden

Will response rates suffer?

Respondent Contact

Varied by mode Many respondents on self-

reporting modes; touchtone, mail. CATI: Interviewer began to discuss

two months before change FAX: Interviewers made special

efforts to contact in advance

Respondent Contact-cont.

Special Transition Letter Electronic: Began intensive work

with firms to reprogram electronic files

Touchtone and mail: Designed “mock form” to highlight new items

U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics Data Collection Center

dccaddress dcccity, dccst dcczip

May 23, 2007 Attn: Payroll Manager Con_Firm Con_Address Con_City, Con_State Con_Zipcode Dear Payroll Manager: Enclosed is a new Current Employment Statistics (CES) monthly report form. We are mailing new forms because we have made major changes to them. Beginning with this month’s report, please use the enclosed form rather than the one you received in January 2005.

We would like to call your attention to these changes. We are now asking for several new data items:

Payroll, Hours, and Commissions for All Workers, in addition to those for production, construction, or nonsupervisory workers

Gross Monthly Earnings for All Workers for the entire previous month. Tips if included on an employee W-2 should be included in payroll and in Gross Monthly Earnings

To help offset the addition of these data elements, we discontinued the reporting of Women Workers. The enclosed report form provides additional details. Why did we make these changes? There are two reasons:

Payroll and hours for All Workers will provide policymakers and businesses with more complete information for decision-making purposes.

Many firms can provide employment, payroll, and hours information for all of their employees but not for their production, construction, or nonsupervisory workers. If yours is one of these firms, we hope you will now supply the information for all workers.

Do I still need to report data for production, construction, or nonsupervisory workers?

Yes. If you currently report employment, payroll, and hours information for your production, construction, or nonsupervisory workers, please continue to do so.

Why does the form look so different?

Because of the new data items, the CES Report only holds data for 6 months. That means you will receive a new report form twice a year.

Are all of your employees paid on the same schedule?

Some firms pay their employees on different time schedules, such as weekly for some workers and biweekly for others. If our records indicate that you have more than one pay group, we have provided separate reporting sheets for each group.

If you have more than one pay group and did not receive a second reporting sheet, please do not use the new form this month. Continue to report using the old form. When we call, tell our data specialist that you have more than one pay schedule.

If you have any questions, please call 1- . Thank you for your ongoing participation. Sincerely yours,

dcccntct Data Collection Center Manager

Instructions for Filling out Your New CES Form

Page 1: For Pay Group 1

Page 2: For Pay Group 2

* Note: Depending on your industry, the form you received may look slightly different than the one displayed here and may refer to production or construction workers rather than nonsupervisory workers.

Your CES report number

If the worksite has only one Pay Group or payroll, ignore this page. If the worksite has a second Pay Group, report the data for the second Pay Group on this page.

Report the data requested for this location

Your new CES form contains two data entry sheets in case the worksite you are reporting for has more than one Pay Group. See the second entry sheet below.

If you pay commissions, check a box to indicate how often employees receive commissions.

Check a box to indicate how often employees in this Pay Group receive pay.

Report Gross Monthly Earnings for the ENTIRE PREVIOUS calendar month

Report for All Workers for the pay period that includes the 12th of the month for this Pay Group on this line

Report for Nonsupervisory Workers* for the pay period that includes the 12th of the month for this Pay Group on this line.

Enter one or two codes to indicate a reason for large changes in your data reported. The codes are listed at the bottom of the form.

Enter one or two codes to indicate a reason for large changes in your Gross Monthly Earnings data. The codes are listed at the bottom of the form.

Results

Overall transition has been successful Higher data item response for All

Employee Payroll/Hours Reasonably high item response for

GMEBut: Overall response rates have declined

Response Rates for Preliminary ReleaseMay 2003 - April 2007

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Response Rates for Preliminary and Final Estimates May 2003 - April 2007

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Final

Prelim

Average TDE Interview Time

0:00

0:28

0:57

1:26

1:55

2:24

2:52

Sep-

04

Nov

-04

Jan-

05

Mar

-05

May

-05

Jul-0

5

Sep-

05

Nov

-05

Jan-

06

Mar

-06

May

-06

Jul-0

6

Sep-

06

Nov

-06

Jan-

07

Mar

-07

Data Item Response

AE Payroll and GME reporting mostly mirrors what respondents were providing for PW Payroll by mode

TDE: Good reporters= high response CATI/FAX: More reluctant reporter,

hence need CATI= modest response EDI: Many large firms not currently

providing PW payroll; difficult to convince firms to re-program their data files; slow improvement

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

AE Payroll AE Hours PW Payroll PW Hours GME

Data Item Response Rates

Data Item Response Rate for New Enrollment Units, March 2006

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

AE Payroll PW Payroll Gross Monthly Earnings

CES Data Item Response Rates by Mode, March 2007

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

AE Payroll PW Payroll Gross Monthly Earnings

TDE

CATI

EDI

Looking at the new data …

Hourly Earning for All Workers averages about 15% higher than current series

Gross Monthly Earnings is somewhat volatile, shows spikes at end of each quarter, especially 4th Quarter; likely due to Bonus Payments

Total private average hourly earnings for all employees and

for production and nonsupervisory workers, NSAEXPERIMENTAL SERIES

$15.00

$16.00

$17.00

$18.00

$19.00

$20.00

$21.00

Mar 2006 Apr 2006 May 2006 Jun 2006 Jul 2006 Aug 2006 Sep 2006 Oct 2006 Nov 2006 Dec 2006 Jan 2007 Feb 2007

all workers

production andnonsupervisory workers

Total private average weekly hours for all employees and

for production and nonsupervisory workers, NSAEXPERIMENTAL SERIES

33.0

33.5

34.0

34.5

35.0

35.5

Mar 2006 Apr 2006 May 2006 Jun 2006 Jul 2006 Aug 2006 Sep 2006 Oct 2006 Nov 2006 Dec 2006 Jan 2007 Feb 2007

all workers

production and nonsupervisoryworkers

Total private all employee gross earnings ratio, NSA

EXPERIMENTAL SERIES

$2,900

$3,000

$3,100

$3,200

$3,300

$3,400

$3,500

$3,600

$3,700

$3,800

Mar 2006 Apr 2006 May 2006 Jun 2006 Jul 2006 Aug 2006 Sep 2006 Oct 2006 Nov 2006 Dec 2006 Jan 2007

LT estimator

R1 estimator

Conclusion Conversion to new data elements

appears to be successful. Conversion has been easier with smaller firms.

Some decline in overall response due to increased respondent burden

Trade-off in terms of improved data item response and usefulness of new data