Introduction to Systems Thinking. Zaipul Anwar Bin Zainudin Lecturer in Institute of Product Design & Manufacturing, (IPROM) Universiti Kuala Lumpur Tel:

Introduction Introduction to to

Systems ThinkingSystems Thinking

Zaipul Anwar Bin ZainuZaipul Anwar Bin Zainudindin

Lecturer in Institute of Product Design & Manufacturing, Lecturer in Institute of Product Design & Manufacturing, (IPROM) Universiti Kuala Lumpur(IPROM) Universiti Kuala Lumpur

Tel: 03-27154715, 019-3262427Tel: 03-27154715, 019-3262427

Email: [email protected]: [email protected]

Website: http://www.zaipul.comWebsite: http://www.zaipul.com

Blog: http://zaipul.com/category/blogsBlog: http://zaipul.com/category/blogs

FacebookFacebook: http://www.facebook.com/zaipul: http://www.facebook.com/zaipul

You may download softcopies of all my materials in this session from thisYou may download softcopies of all my materials in this session from thislink: link: http://www.zaipul.com/download/tech-innovation-mgt/ - To verify the URL, go to http://www.zaipul.com/download/tech-innovation-mgt/ - To verify the URL, go to

‘Download’ link at my website Zaipul.com‘Download’ link at my website Zaipul.com

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

““The significant problems we face today The significant problems we face today

cannot be solved at the same cannot be solved at the same level of level of

thinkingthinking at which they were created.” at which they were created.”

Albert EinsteinAlbert Einstein

Founded in 1956 by MIT professor, Jay Forrester.Founded in 1956 by MIT professor, Jay Forrester.System thinking allows people to make their System thinking allows people to make their understanding understanding of social system of social system explicit and improve them in the explicit and improve them in the same same way that people use engineering principles way that people use engineering principles to improve their to improve their understanding of mechanical system.understanding of mechanical system.

It is use to:-It is use to:-

• Examining how we create our own problemsExamining how we create our own problems• Seeing the big pictureSeeing the big picture• Structure influences performanceStructure influences performance

WHAT IS SYSTEMS THINKING?

SYSTEM THINKING APPROACH

Traditional analysis Systems thinking

Traditional analysis focuses on

the separating the individual

pieces of what is being studied; in

fact, the word “analysis” actually

comes from the root meaning “to

break into constituent parts.

Systems thinking, in contrast, focuses on how the thing being studied interacts with the other constituents of the system—a set of elements that interact to produce behavior—of which it is a part.

Complex problems that involve helping many actors see the “big picture” and not just their part of itRecurring problems or those that have been made worse by past attempts to fix themIssues where an action affects (or is affected by) the environment surrounding the issue, either the natural environment or the competitive environmentProblems whose solutions are not obvious

Examples of area System Thinking has proven its value include:

Encourages us to see the whole as well as the parts.

Systems Thinking Learning to see the world systemically

?? ??

!!!

WHOLE PARTS Holistic Thinking

Multiple (often) restricted views

Systems Thinking…

Webecoist.comMax Barret

Helps us explore interdependencies and looking for patterns.

Systems Thinking…

River Fractal - Héctor Garrido

Helps us understand feedback structures that change systems over time.

Systems Thinking…

http://www.systems-thinking.org/theWay/theWay.htm

Helps us understand results of our decisions…

Causal Loop DiagramsCausal Loop Diagrams

• A useful way to represent dynamic interrelationships

• Provide a visual representation with which to

communicate that understanding

• Make explicit one's understanding of a system structure - Capture the mental model

SYSTEMS THINKING TOOLSSYSTEMS THINKING TOOLS

Variables - an element in a situation which may act or be acted upon Vary up or down over time (not an event) Nouns or noun phrases (not action words)

Links / Arrows - show the relationship and the directionof influence between variables

S's and O's - show the way one variable moves or changes in relation to another S stands for "same direction” O stands for "opposite direction”

or B - Balancing feedback loop that seeks equilibrium

or R - Reinforcing feedback loop that amplifies change

Components of Causal Loop DiagramsComponents of Causal Loop Diagrams

EmployeePerformance

Supervisor’sSupportiveBehavior

UnsupportiveBehavior

Structure

S

S

Reinforcing LoopReinforcing Loop

Perf.Level

Time

Behavior Over Time

Supportive Behavior

EmployeePerformance

Supervisor’sSupportiveBehavior

Types of Causal Loop DiagramsTypes of Causal Loop Diagrams

Discrepancy

InventoryAdjustment

Structure

ActualInventory

DesiredInventory

Desired Inventory

Time

Behavior Over Time

100

100 - -

100 ++

Actual Inventory

S

S

S

O

Balancing LoopBalancing Loop

Types of Causal Loop DiagramsTypes of Causal Loop Diagrams

• A class of tools that capture the "common stories” in systems thinking

• Powerful tools for diagnosing problems and identifying high leverage interventions that creates fundamental change

SYSTEMS THINKING ARCHETYPES

1. Fixes that Fail / Backfire

2. Limits to Growth/Success

3. Shifting the Burden / Addiction

4. Tragedy of the Commons

5. Drifting Goals

List of System Thinking Archetype

UnintendedConsequences

FixProblemSymptom

Delay

S S

S

O

Time

Behavior Over Time

1. Fixes that Fail1. Fixes that Fail

1. Fixes that Fail1. Fixes that Fail

Breaking a “Fixes that Fail” cycle usually Breaking a “Fixes that Fail” cycle usually requires two actions: acknowledging that requires two actions: acknowledging that the fix is merely alleviating a symptom, and the fix is merely alleviating a symptom, and making a commitment to solve the real making a commitment to solve the real problem now.problem now.

A two pronged attack of applying the fix and A two pronged attack of applying the fix and planning out the fundamental solution will planning out the fundamental solution will help ensure that you don’t get caught in a help ensure that you don’t get caught in a perpetual cycle of solving yesterdays perpetual cycle of solving yesterdays “solutions”“solutions”

PositiveReinforcement

Structure

Perf.Level

Time

Behavior Over Time

Corrective Action

Target

DiminishingReturns

“Burnout”

Growing Action

Actual Performance

S

S

S

O

S

2. Limits to Growth2. Limits to Growth

PotentialCustomers

Market Exposureto Potential Customers

Sales

S

S

O

S

2. Limits to Growth2. Limits to Growth

MarketSize

S

3. Shifting the Burden3. Shifting the Burden

Quick fixes

Problem/symptom

Source of problem/Root cause

Side effects

+

__

+

_

+

+

__

Efforts Quick fix

Time

Behavior Over Time

Capacity of systemto fix itself

Problem symptom

3. Shifting the Burden3. Shifting the Burden

Apply Patches

Damage of Road

Proper RoadContruction

Feeling of Okay

+

__

+

_

+

+

__

Apply patches

Time

Behavior Over Time

Proper road construction

Damage of road

4. Tragedy of the Commons4. Tragedy of the Commons

Total ActivityGain perIndividualActivity

ResourceLimit

O

S

S

S Time

A

Time

B

A’s Activity

B’s Activity

Net Gainsfor B

S

S

S

S

Net Gainsfor AS

S


Investmentin Integration

PerceivedSuccess fromIntegration

S

O

O

Time

A

Time

B

Investmentin features

S

S

S

S

O

O

Success fromProductInvestment

Success fromProductInvestment

Investmentin features

FixedBudget

FixedBudget

Investmentin Integration

DELAY

S

S

Solutions for a “Tragedy of the Commons” never Solutions for a “Tragedy of the Commons” never lie at the individual level lie at the individual level (The Libertarian Nightmare(The Libertarian Nightmare))

What are the incentives for individuals to persist What are the incentives for individuals to persist in their actions? in their actions?

Can the long-term collective loss be made more Can the long-term collective loss be made more real?real?

Find ways to reconcile short-term individual Find ways to reconcile short-term individual rewards with long-term cumulative rewards with long-term cumulative consequencesconsequences


5. Drifting Goals5. Drifting Goals

Goal Pressure to Lower Goal

Gap

Corrective ActionActual

SS

O

SO

S

Delay

Time

Goal

5. Drifting Goals5. Drifting Goals

Drifting performance figures are indicators Drifting performance figures are indicators that the “Drifting Goals” archetype is at that the “Drifting Goals” archetype is at work and that real corrective actions are work and that real corrective actions are not being taken.not being taken.

Understand how goals are setUnderstand how goals are set

5. The Boiled Frog5. The Boiled Frog

If you put a frog in boiling water, it will If you put a frog in boiling water, it will hop out immediatelyhop out immediately

If you put a frog in cold water and slowly If you put a frog in cold water and slowly bring the water to boil, the frog will bring the water to boil, the frog will unwittingly enjoy its last blissful warm unwittingly enjoy its last blissful warm bathbath

Perceived DesiredTemperature

Tolerance for Temperature

TemperatureGap

Hop Out

Time

TempS

S

O

S

O


If you put a frog in cold water and slowly If you put a frog in cold water and slowly bring the water to boil the frog will jump bring the water to boil the frog will jump out when it gets uncomfortable. out when it gets uncomfortable.

If you put a frog in boiling water, it will If you put a frog in boiling water, it will croak immediately.croak immediately.


Systems ThinkingSystems ThinkingCase StudyCase Study

Crop Damaging by InsectsCrop Damaging by Insects

When an insect is eating a crop, the conventional response is to spray the crop with a pesticide designed to kill that insect.

Putting aside the limited effectiveness of some pesticides and the water and soil pollution they can cause, imagine a perfect pesticide that kills all of the insects against which it is used and which has no side effects on air, water, or soil.

Is using this pesticide likely to make the farmer or company whose crops are being eaten better off?

Reducing Crop Damage by Insects:


InsectsDamaging Crops

PesticideApplication

O

If we represent the thinking used by thoseapplying the pesticides, it would look like this:

1. The letter indicates how the two variables are related: an “s” means they change in the same direction - if one goes up then the other goes up, and an “o” means they change in the opposite direction - if one goes up then the other goes down (or vice versa).

2. This diagram is read “a change in the amount of pesticide applied causes the number of insects damaging crops to change in the opposite direction.”

3. The belief being represented here is that “as the amount of pesticide applied increases, the number of insects damaging crops decreases”.

Total number of Insects damaging crop

PesticideApplication

S

O

S

Number of Insect A Damaging Crop

Number of Insect B

Number of Insect BDamaging Crop

S

S

O



4. The problem of crop damage due to insects often does get better - in the short term.

5. Unfortunately, what frequently happens is that in following years the problem of crop damage gets worse and worse and the pesticide that formerly seemed so effective does not seem to help anymore.

6. This is because the insect A that was eating the crops was controlling the population of another insect B, either by preying on it or by competing with it.

7. When the pesticide kills the insects A that were eating the crops, it eliminates the control that those insects were applying on the population of the other insects, insects B).

8. Then the population of the insects B that were being controlled explodes and continue to damage the crops.

So now how do you solve the problem of Insect B damaging the crop?

Find the solution…..


THE FIVE DISCIPLINES

To more about Systems Thinking,To more about Systems Thinking,read this book!read this book!

TeamLearning

PersonalMastery

Mental

Models

Shared

Vision

Systems

Thinking

ReferencesWarfield, J. Warfield, J. Societal SystemsSocietal Systems, Intersystems, 1989., Intersystems, 1989.Joseph O’Connor & Ian McDermott. Joseph O’Connor & Ian McDermott. The Art of Systems ThinkingThe Art of Systems Thinking, , Thorsons, 1997.Thorsons, 1997.Senge, P.M. Senge, P.M. The Fifth Discipline: The Art & Practice of the Learning Organization, The Fifth Discipline: The Art & Practice of the Learning Organization,

Doubleday, 1990.Doubleday, 1990. The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook: Strategies and Tools for Building A The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook: Strategies and Tools for Building A

Learning Organization, Doubleday, 1994.Learning Organization, Doubleday, 1994.System Dynamics / Systems Thinking Mega Link ListSystem Dynamics / Systems Thinking Mega Link List

http://www.uni-klu.ac.at/users/gossimit/links/bookmksd.htmhttp://www.uni-klu.ac.at/users/gossimit/links/bookmksd.htmThe Way of Systems (System Archetypes)The Way of Systems (System Archetypes)

http://www.outsights.com/systems/theWay/theWay.htmhttp://www.outsights.com/systems/theWay/theWay.htm

Daniel Aronson, Overview of Systems Thinking, 1996-8Daniel Aronson, Overview of Systems Thinking, 1996-8

http://www.thinking.nethttp://www.thinking.net

Documents

Introduction to Systems Thinking. Zaipul Anwar Bin Zainudin Lecturer in Institute of Product Design & Manufacturing, (IPROM) Universiti Kuala Lumpur Tel: