IIM Ahmedabad
Inventory and Future Emissions from India:
Analysis Using AIM Local Model
P.R. ShuklaIndian Institute of Management
Ahmedabad, India
7th AIM International WorkshopNIES, Tsukuba, Japan, March 15-17, 2002
IIM Ahmedabad
Overview
India Emission Inventory
India Future Emissions
Large Point Sources (LPS)
Area Sources
District Ahmedabad
IIM Ahmedabad
India Emission Inventory
IIM Ahmedabad
Emissions Inventory for India
Emissions (Tg) 1990 1995 2000 CAGR *
Carbon dioxide 593 778 935 4.9
Methane 17.050 18.050 19.100 1.2
N2
O 0.213 0.251 0.308 3.8
SO2
3.540 4.640 5.940 5.3
NOX
2.640 3.460 4.300 5.0
CO2
equivalent GHG 1016 1234 1432 3.5
* Compounded Annual Growth Rate over 1990-2000 (%)
IIM Ahmedabad
India Emission Trends (Tg)
Carbon dioxide Methane
1616.5
1717.5
1818.5
1919.5
1990 1995 2000
Emis
sion
s(T
g)0
200
400
600
800
1000
1990 1995 2000
Emis
sion
s (T
g)
Growth rate 4.9%
Growth rate 1.2%
IIM Ahmedabad
India Emission Trends (Tg)
SO2 and NOx N2O
01234567
1990 1995 2000
Emis
sion
s (T
g)
SO2 (GR 5.3%)
NOx (GR 4.9%)N2O Growth rate 3.9%
00.050.1
0.150.2
0.250.3
0.35
1990 1995 2000
Emis
sion
s(T
g)
N2O (GR 3.8%)
IIM Ahmedabad
Emission Inventory: 466 Districts of India
IIM Ahmedabad
CO2 Emission Distribution1995 2000
IIM Ahmedabad
No of Largest Percentage ofemitter districts total emission
1995 20001-5 16.1 15.81-15 36.7 36.91-25 50.3 56.41-47 67.4 73.61-233 95.3 95.9All India 100 100
Coal mainstay- hot-spots have high correlation with coal consumption
Thermal power plants (Coal), large cities (Oil) and industrial towns –main hot-spots
Electricity generation dominates the hot-spots
CO2 Emission Distribution
IIM Ahmedabad
SO2 Emission Distribution1995 2000
IIM Ahmedabad
No of Largest Percentage of emitter districts total emission
1995 20001-5 15.5 16.11-15 33.4 36.21-25 46.5 50.11-47 63.8 68.51-233 94.3 94.8All India 100 100
Hot-spots have high co-relation with CO2 emissions
Top 20 districts growth rate higher than national average
Least 400 contribution decreased but emissions marginally increased
SO2 Emission Distribution
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Delhi SO2 Emissions from Oil
SO2 Co-efficient decrease from 0.02 to 0.005 for Diesel over 1995-2000 has resulted in substantial SO2 emission reduction in case of Delhi
00.0050.01
0.0150.02
0.0250.03
0.0350.04
1900 1995 2000
Emis
sion
s (M
T)
HSD MS SKO LDO FO Naphtha LSHS ATF
IIM Ahmedabad
Future Emissions
IIM Ahmedabad
Emission projections for India
Emissions (Tg) 1995 2000 2010 2020 2030 CAGR*
CO2
778 935 1507 2097 2482 3.37
Methane 18.05 19.10 21.5 23.2 24.83 0.91
N2O 0.25 0.31 0.40 0.61 0.75 3.18
SO2
4.64 5.94 6.46 8.09 7.62 1.42
NOX
3.46 4.30 6.08 7.64 8.48 2.59
CO2
equivalent GHG 1234 1432 2063 2752 3233 2.79
* Compounded Annual Growth Rate over 1995-2030 (%)
IIM Ahmedabad
LPS Future Emissions
IIM Ahmedabad
LPS Database
Data for increasing numbers of LPS
Coverage of gases: CO2 and SO2
Emissions factors for India
Projections up to year 2030
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LPS Coverage for IndiaSector Sub-sectors LPS covered
2000 2010 2020 2030Power (coal & Oil) 82 111 131 150Power (natural gas) 12 17 20 23Steel 11 17 23 29Cement * 85 98 110 123Fertilizer 31 41 52 62Paper 33 38 43 48Sugar 28 28 29 30
Energy
Caustic Soda 19 21 23 26H2SO4 manufacturing 63 64 66 68Aluminium (Al) 3 4 5 5Copper ore smelting (Cu) 8 9 10 11Lead ore smelting (Pb) 5 6 7 8
Industrial processes
Zinc ore smelting (Zn) 3 4 5 5
Total 383 458 524 588
IIM Ahmedabad
LPS Locations2000 2030
IIM Ahmedabad
Database Generation
Sectoral demand projections on the basis of macro-economic parameters
Thirty year time series GDPGovernment projectionsExpert opinion
LPS demand on the basis of sectoral demand elasticity and past production trendsDemand over and above LPS capacities assigned to Area Sources
IIM Ahmedabad
CO2 from LPS
2000 2010
IIM Ahmedabad
CO2 from LPS2020 2030
IIM Ahmedabad
CO2 from Energy Sector LPS
0200400600800
100012001400160018002000
2000 2010 2020 2030
Year
Tg
Pow er (Coal & Oil) Pow er (Gas) Steel Cement Fertilizer Paper Sugar
IIM Ahmedabad
Sectoral LPS share for CO2 2000
LPSAll India
LPS Share66%
Other34%
Power (Coal & Oil)62%
Steel20%
Cement12%
Paper3%
Power (Gas)3%
IIM Ahmedabad
Sectoral LPS share for CO2 2030
LPS Share71%
Other29%
Power (Coal & Oil)64%
Steel15%
Cement14%
Paper2%
Power (Gas)5%
LPSAll India
IIM Ahmedabad
SO2 from LPS2000 2010
IIM Ahmedabad
SO2 from LPS2020 2030
IIM Ahmedabad
SO2 from Energy Sector LPS
00.5
11.5
22.5
33.5
44.5
5
2000 2010 2020 2030
Year
Tg
Pow er Steel Cement Fertilizer Paper Sugar
IIM Ahmedabad
SO2 from Industrial Processes LPS
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
2000 2010 2020 2030
Year
Tg
H2SO4 Copper (Cu) Lead (Pb) Zinc (Zn)
IIM Ahmedabad
Sectoral LPS share for SO2 2000
LPS Share66%
Other34%
Power (Coal & Oil)59%
Steel22%
Cement10%
Paper5%
Ind. Process4%
LPSAll India
IIM Ahmedabad
Sectoral LPS share for SO2 2010
LPS Share
Other
All India LPS
Steel20%
Cement12%
Ind. Process2%
Paper5%
Power61%
67%
33%
IIM Ahmedabad
Sectoral LPS share for SO2 2030
LPS Share63%
Other37% Power (Coal & Oil)
50%Steel23%
Cement15%
Paper5%
Ind. Process7%
LPSAll India
IIM Ahmedabad
SO2 Emissions in India
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035Year
Mill
ion
Ton
nes
IIM Ahmedabad
Kuznets’ Analysis - SO2 Emissions
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1500 3500 5500 7500GDP per capita (PPP$)
MT
2025
IIM Ahmedabad
AIM Local ModelAhmedabad District
IIM Ahmedabad
Ahmedabad District
AhmedabadMunicipal area
Gujarat
Gujarat State & Ahmedabad District
Area Population Sq. Km. Thousands
Gujarat 18509 184 196024 (3) 41310 (34)Ahmedabad Dist. 648 7 8707 (6) 4802 (75)
Villages Taluka
IIM Ahmedabad
Ahmedabad District
Viramgam
Dholka
AhmedabadCity
Daskroi
Dehgam
Sanand
Dhandhuka
AhmedabadMunicipal Area
21.90 N
23.40 N71.60 E 730 E
Lat
itude
Longitude
IIM Ahmedabad
Ahmedabad District Profile
Note: Figures in brackets show % Urban share
Area Population HouseholdsSq. Kms. Thousands Thousands
Ahmedabad City 292 (83) 3250 (99) 629 (99)Daskroi 664 (5) 338 (28) 68 (29)Dholka 1788 (2) 307 (26) 57 (25)Dhandhuka 2683 (4) 252 (21) 42 (22)Sanand 791 (5) 162 (16) 30 (16)Viramgam 1714 (4) 278 (22) 54 (22)Dehgam 620 (4) 214 (15) 41 (15)
Taluka
IIM Ahmedabad
Ahmedabad IndustriesIndustrial Area Number of Industries Vatva 283 Rakhial/Odhav 233 Naroda 345 Narol 40 Dudheshwar 66 Danilimda/Chandola lake 64 Saraspur/Bapunagar 59 Amraiwadi 25 Bavla 11 Dhandhuka 5 Daskroi 18 Sanand 108 Dholka 23 Isanpur 28
IIM Ahmedabad
Vehicles in Ahmedabad District
Class of Vehicles 1980 1990 2000 (Estimate)
Motor Cycle 241165 1257826 3100130Auto Rickshaw 31053 98917 201790Jeep 14328 33798 79623Motor Cars (3 and 4 wheelers) 52817 141584 357612Taxi Cabs 2896 9069 55487Buses 11203 20011 36264Trucks and Goods Vehicles 44392 119461 319182Tractors 32492 85386 206912Others 28158 107982 118584
All Vehicles 458504 1874034 4475584
IIM Ahmedabad
LPS Coverage for Ahmedabad
Industry LPS Covered Major Emissions
Chemicals Manufacturing 66 CO2, SO2, NOx
Dyes Manufacturing 25 CO2, SO2
Others Industries 9 CO2, SO2
Pharmaceuticals 2 CO2, SO2, NOx
Steel Foundries and Fabrication 94 CO2, SO2
Textile Mills 4 CO2, SO2, NOx
Textile Processing and Dyeing 17 CO2, SO2
IIM Ahmedabad
CO2 Emissions2000 2030
IIM Ahmedabad
SO2 Emissions2000 2030