Investment Ideas Ideas 2015.pdfRevamp of PSU bank: The government rolled out a seven step plan to improve performance of PSU banks. Cleaning of balance sheet: The newly appointed MD

Investment Ideas

November 7, 2015 2

Company Industry CMP (Rs) Target price (Rs) Expected Upside (%)

BOB Banking 167 248 49%

Cipla Ltd Pharmaceutical 657 875 33%

Goodyear India Tyre 560 750 34%

GPPL Marine Port 164 255 55%

IDFC Bank Banking 70 95 36%

Infosys Ltd IT 1138 1450 27%

NTPC Ltd. Power 135 215 59%

PTC India Ltd Power 64 85 33%

REC India NBFCs 238 350 47%

Tata Motors Automobiles 396 525 33%

Wonderla Holidays Amusement Park 331 550 66%

Investment Picks – SAMVAT 2072

Note: Investment period - 12 MonthsStock’s Price as on November 06, 2015

Profile:Bank of Baroda is an Indian state-owned banking and financialservices company. It is headquartered in Vadodara (earlier known asBaroda) in Gujarat, India. Bank of Baroda is the second-largest PSUBank in India, after State Bank of India.

Key Triggers: Credit growth to improve: Improving macro economic trends

and reduction in rates will enhance credit growth. Retail andSME will continue to remain the key drivers for credit growth.

Revamp of PSU bank: The government rolled out a seven stepplan to improve performance of PSU banks.

Cleaning of balance sheet: The newly appointed MD & CEO P SJayakumar and non-executive Chairman Ravi Venkatesan mayhelp Bank of Baroda clean the balance sheet aggressively, raisecapital and position the bank for growth.

Awards in H1, FY16: Bank of Baroda was conferred the BestPublic Sector Bank under the category Global Business at theDun & Bradstreet Banking Awards 2015 and Bank of Baroda wasawarded HR Excellence Award by Business world for "Bestinitiative for Engaging Superannuated Employees”.

Valuation & View:At the current price of Rs 167, the stock is trading at ttm P/BVmultiple of 0.88x which is lower than the 5 years average P/BVmultiple of 1.45x. Hence, we recommend a BUY rating for the targetprice of Rs 248 in 12 months perspective.

Key Risk: Bank of Baroda’s net profit for the September quarter fell

88.73% from a year ago due to higher provisions andcontingencies and lower net interest income (NII).

Recent negative news of an alleged forex scam of Rs 6000 crore.

Valuation Metrics

CMP (Rs.) 167

Target Price (Rs.) 248

CNX NIFTY 7954

52 Week H/L 228/137

Market Cap (Cr.) 37,338

P/E (ttm) 11.9

EPS (ttm) 13.40

P/BV (ttm) 0.88

Book Value (ttm) 182.03

Industry Banks

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Sep 15 June 15

Promoters 59.24 57.53

FII / NRIs / OCBs 12.04 13.55

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 21.17 20.68

Non inst./Others 7.55 8.24

Bank of Baroda Ltd.

Source: BSE3November 7, 2015

Profile:Cipla is a global pharmaceutical company which uses cutting edgetechnology and innovation to meet everyday needs of all typespatients. For 80 years, Cipla has emerged as one of the mostrespected pharmaceutical names in India as well as across more than150 countries. Its portfolio includes 1500 plus products acrosstherapeutic categories with one quality standard globally.

Key Triggers: Good Q2FY16 results: Growth in exports led to 44% increase in

Cipla's net profit in the second quarter FY 16. Net profit for theperiod stood at Rs 431 crore in Q2 FY 16 as against Rs 299 crorein the same period last year. Revenue grew 25% to Rs 3452crore in the quarter under review.

Cipla strengthens its focus on Biotech: Cipla BioTec will focuson research, development, manufacturing and marketing ofbiosimilars for cancer, auto-immune diseases, respiratorydiseases and diabetes. Cipla is seeing some very goodmomentum in its Biotech programmes.

Cipla has been strengthening its presence in US marketthrough inorganic growth route: In September, Cipla EU Ltdhad announced the acquisition of two US-based companies,InvaGen Pharmaceuticals Inc. and Exelan Pharmaceuticals Inc.,for $550 million to strengthen its presence in world’s largestpharma market.

Valuation & View:At the current price of Rs 657, the stock is trading at forward P/Emultiple of 27.6XFY16 & 22.3xFY17 with forward EPS of Rs 23.81FY16 & Rs 29.49 FY17. Hence, we recommend a BUY rating for thetarget price of Rs 875 in 12 months perspective.

Key Risk: Pharmaceutical industry has always been under intense scrutiny

by various regulatory authorities, both Indian and international.

Valuation Metrics

CMP (Rs.) 657


CNX NIFTY 7954

52 Week H/L 752/572


P/E (ttm) 31.68

EPS (ttm) 20.79

P/BV (ttm) 4.52


Industry Pharmaceuticals


Sep 15 June 15


FII / NRIs / OCBs 22.51 18.29



Cipla Limited


Profile:Goodyear India Limited (GIL) is engaged in the business ofmanufacturing and trading of tyres, tubes and flaps withmanufacturing facility at Ballabgarh, Haryana, India. The Companymanufactures automotive bias tyres, such as farm tyres andcommercial truck tyres at its Ballabgarh plant and also markets inGoodyear branded tyres (including radial passenger and Off The Road(OTR) bias tyres manufactured by Goodyear South Asia Tyres PrivateLimited (GSATPL), Aurangabad.

Key Triggers: Leadership position in tractor tyres industry: GIL commands

leadership position in tractor tyres industry. This segment isexpected to see strong growth buoyed by rising tractor salesdriven by growth in the agricultural sector and increasingtractor penetration.

Strong balance sheet: The Company is a zero debt companywith Rs.397.42 crore cash balance as of 30th Sept, 2015 whichis equivalent to Rs. 172.26 cash per share.

Benefited from lower raw material prices: Softening in rubberprices and crude oil will give boost in profitability to theCompany.

Strong parent company: Goodyear India has a technical-cum-financial collaboration with Goodyear Tire and RubberCompany, US. The American parent (which holds 74% equitystake) is among the top three players in the world.

Valuation & View:At the current price of Rs 560, the stock is trading at ttm P/E multipleof 12.9x. Hence, we recommend a BUY rating for the target price ofRs. 750 in 12 months perspective.

Key Risk: Slow growth in rural areas and tractor sales.

Valuation Metrics

CMP (Rs.) 560


CNX NIFTY 7954

52 Week H/L 712/502

Market Cap (Cr.) 1291

P/E (ttm) 12.92

EPS (ttm) 43.33

P/BV (ttm) 2.38


Industry Tyre


Sep 15 June 15


FII / NRIs / OCBs 0.84 0.80



Goodyear India Limited


Profile:Gujarat Pipavav Port Limited is Inidia’s first private sector port. PortPipavav is managed and operated by APM Terminals, the ports andterminals company of the maritime giant, the A.P. Moller-MaerskGroup. APM Terminals is one of the largest container terminaloperators in the world and offers the global shipping community anintegrated Global Terminal Network of 56 ports and 154 inlandfacilities in 63 countries.

Key Triggers: Global Reach: With a presence in every major market, APM

Terminals serves all major trade lanes providing its customerswith the most advanced terminal technology, equipment andoperations in the industry. It has two facilities in India currently- India's largest and most successful container terminal, APMTerminals Mumbai ( earlier known as Gateway Terminals India),in JNPT at Nhava Sheva, Mumbai; and Port Pipavav in Gujarat.

Large land Bank: The company has large land bank area of 631hectares available for growth, there is plenty of land availablefor expansion of port-related services and businesses. The porthas leased out land for a variety of services including liquidcargo facilities.

Strategically located all weather port: It is an all weather portlocated just 152 nautical miles from Nhava Sheva Mumbai.

Valuation & View:At the current price of Rs 164, GPPL is trading at FY2016E andFY2017E P/E multiple of 25.2x and 27.4x, respectively with forwardEPS of Rs 6.50 FY16 & Rs 5.98 FY17. Hence, we recommend a BUYrating for the target price of Rs 255 in 12 months perspective.

Key Risk: Slow down in Economy can dent the earnings for the company.

Valuation Metrics

CMP (Rs.) 164


CNX NIFTY 7954

52 Week H/L 262/156


P/E (ttm) 27.47

EPS (ttm) 5.99

P/BV (ttm) 4.14


Industry Marine Port Services


Sep 15 June 15


FII / NRIs / OCBs 38.67 38.37



Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd.


Profile:IDFC Bank Limited is one of the emerging banks in India, which hasdemerged from IDFC Limited. Going forward, IDFC Bank will have 3business verticals namely Corporate (Wholesale) Bank, Consumer(Retail) Bank and Rural (Bharat) Bank. To start with, the majority ofthe branches will be in Rural India. The Quality of Customer Serviceand Digital Banking will be the primary focus of IDFC Bank. It is whollyowned subsidiary of IDFC Financial Holding Company Limited. It doesnot have any Subsidiary, Joint Venture or Associate Companies.

Key Triggers: Bank focus on Rural Areas: In India, there is only 35% of the

population have formal Banking accounts in rural areas. Hence,IDFC bank will be benefited from the focus in rural India.

Going forward strong Treasury Portfolio will be benefited:IDFC has aggressively built an investment portfolio of Rs. 250bln. IDFC is sitting on higher MTM gains, and with a further fallin interest rates, treasury gains are likely to increase, which willhelp in providing cushion for NPAs or direct technology cost.

Balance Sheet Size: On October 1, 2015 IDFC had transferredall assets and liabilities of its lending business (financingundertaking) to IDFC Bank. Currently, it has net worth stands atRs 13,322 crore and the bank has a balance sheet size of Rs73,447 crore.

Valuation & View:At the current price of Rs 70, the stock is trading at P/BV multiple of1.78x with the book value of Rs 39.11. Hence, we recommend a BUYrating for the target price of Rs 95 in 12 months perspective.

Key Risk: The asset quality might be remain weak for at least a few more

quarter.

Valuation Metrics

CMP (Rs.) 70


CNX NIFTY 7954

52 Week H/L 73.45/67.00


P/E (ttm) --

EPS (ttm) --

P/BV (ttm) 1.78


Industry Banks


Oct - 15 June - 15

Promoters 53.00 --

FII / NRIs / OCBs 21.68 --

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 12.12 --

Non inst./Others 13.20 --

IDFC Bank Limited


Profile:Infosys is a global leader in consulting, technology, outsourcing andnext-generation services. It enables clients, in more than 50countries, to stay a step ahead of emerging business trends andoutperform the competition. It helps them transform and thrive in achanging world by co-creating breakthrough solutions that combinestrategic insights and execution excellence.

Key Triggers: Stronger than expected revenue growth and EBIT margins in

Q2FY16: Revenue grew 6.9% QoQ on constant currency basisand EBIT% at 25.5% beating market expectations.

Revenue guidance has been retained. Revenues are expectedto grow 10%-12% in constant currency.

Strong deal wins: Company won large deals worth USD983m,which compares with USD688m in the previous quarter.Revenue from top ten clients grew broadly in-line with thecompany growth rate. Revenue growth should accelerate as thecompany sharpens focus on large deal wins in core Business ITsegment and enhances sales effectiveness.


Key Risk: Slower pick up in IT spend Appreciation of INR against USD, Euro and GBP

Valuation Metrics

CMP (Rs.) 1138


CNX NIFTY 7954

52 Week H/L 1219/932

Market Cap (Cr.) 2,61,622

P/E (ttm) 20.18

EPS (ttm) 55.62

P/BV (ttm) 4.50


Industry IT


Sep 15 June 15


FII / NRIs / OCBs 39.89 40.99



Infosys Limited


Profile:NTPC is India’s largest energy conglomerate. The total installedcapacity of the company is 45,548 MW (including JVs) with 18 coalbased and 7 gas based stations. 7 Joint Venture stations are coalbased and 8 renewable energy projects. The company has set a targetto have an installed power generating capacity of 1,28,000 MW bythe year 2032.

Key Triggers: New bailout plan for state power utilities to be benefited for

NTPC: The Cabinet has cleared an ambitious $7 billion debt-recast and reform package to revive loss-making state utilities,which have choked the power sector by imposing blackouts oncustomers and refusing to buy surplus electricity from powerstations because of mismanagement, power theft and heavylosses.

Increased visibility on capacity addition: NTPC operationalisedits first hydro project (Koldam: 800MW) in Q1FY16. Additionally,the company has commissioned ~1,410MW of projects whichshould become commercially operational in FY16E.

Captive coal blocks: NTPC was reallocated all 5 coal blocks de-allocated post the Supreme Court order. In addition, it wasallocated three more coal blocks, viz. Banai, Bhalumuda andKundanali –Luburi, in Mar’15.

Valuation & View:At the current price of Rs 135, the stock is trading at forward P/Emultiple of 12.13X FY16 & 11.15x FY17 with forward EPS of Rs 11.17FY16 & Rs 12.15 FY17. Hence, we recommend a BUY rating for thetarget price of Rs 215 in 12 months perspective.

Key Risk: Inadequate fuel supply Delay in execution of projects

Valuation Metrics

CMP (Rs.) 135


CNX NIFTY 7954

52 Week H/L 164/107


P/E (ttm) 10.09

EPS (ttm) 13.40

P/BV (ttm) 1.29


Industry Power Generation


Sep 15 June 15





NTPC Limited


Profile:PTC India Limited, the leading provider of power trading solutions inIndia. The Company has maintained its leadership position in powertrading since inception. PTC has also been authorized by theGovernment of India to trade electricity with Bhutan, Nepal andBangladesh. PTC is a unique example of a successful public-privatepartnership with major PSUs of the Ministry of Power, Government ofIndia as promoters and wide ownership interest.

Key Triggers: Long Term PPA in Pipeline: The company has tied up with

various power producers around 11GW of capacity. In whicharound 4GW capacity is already operational and is being sold &4.2 GW capacity is expected to be operational for long termsales during FY16 & FY17.

Management outlook: The power sector in recent times hasbeen in transient state, leading to volatility in short term tradedvolumes. Despite the volatility we have been able to maintainour leadership position in the market. It continues toconsolidate in its core trading business with improvement inaverage margin realizations. It believes that with reopening ofmedium term market for power traders in revised policydocuments, the trading opportunities in the power tradingmarket will increase in near future.

Valuation & View:At the current price of Rs 64, the stock is trading at P/BV multiple of0.63x on ttm basis which is lower than the 5 years average P/BVmultiple of 0.88x. Hence, we recommend a BUY rating for the targetprice of Rs. 85 in 12 months perspective.

Key Risk: Any adverse policy changes in power sector can dent the

profitability of the company.

Valuation Metrics

CMP (Rs.) 64


CNX NIFTY 7954

52 Week H/L 104/50


P/E (ttm) 7.54

EPS (ttm) 8.66

P/BV (ttm) 0.63


Industry Power


Sep 15 June 15


FII / NRIs / OCBs 30.27 28.75



PTC India Ltd.


Profile:Rural Electrification Corporation Ltd (REC) is one of the leading publicfinancial institutions in the country, funding almost all needs of entirePower Infrastructure space. Its main objective is to finance andpromote rural electrification projects all over the country. It providesfinancial assistance to State Electricity Boards, State GovernmentDepartments and Rural Electric Cooperatives for rural electrificationprojects as are sponsored by them.

Key Triggers: High Dividend Yield is cushion for investor: REC has dividend

yield of 4.03% with solid fundamentals. Huge Loan Book Size: REC having Rs. 1,70,000cr of loan assets,

well distributed between generation and T&D segments, islikely to witness a pick-up in disbursements and asset growthover the coming 3years.

Road ahead: India is today one of the most vibrant amongglobal economies, on the back of robust banking and insurancesectors. The country is projected to become the fifth largestbanking sector globally by 2020, as per a joint report byKPMGCII. The report also expects bank credit to grow at acompound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17% in the mediumterm leading to better credit penetration.

Valuation & View:At the current price of Rs 238, the stock is trading at P/BV multiple of0.94x on ttm basis which is lower than the 5 years average P/BVmultiple of 1.33x. Hence, we recommend a BUY rating for the targetprice of Rs. 350 in 12 months perspective.

Key Risk: Significant exposure to these State Electricity Boards and State

Power utilities. Any adverse changes in policy will affect theearnings of the company.

Valuation Metrics

CMP (Rs.) 238


CNX NIFTY 7954

52 Week H/L 371/211


P/E (ttm) 4.90

EPS (ttm) 54.12

P/BV (ttm) 0.94


Industry NBFCs


Sep 15 June 15


FII / NRIs / OCBs 21.42 21.65



Rural Electrification Corp. Ltd.


Profile:Tata Motors Limited is India’s largest automobile company in term ofSales. Through subsidiaries and associate companies, Tata Motors hasoperations in the UK, South Korea, Thailand, South Africa andIndonesia. Among them is Jaguar Land Rover, the business comprisingthe two iconic British brands. It also has an industrial joint venturewith Fiat in India. With over 8 million Tata vehicles plying in India, It isthe country’s market leader in commercial vehicles and among thetop in passenger vehicles. Tata cars, buses and trucks are beingmarketed in several countries in Europe, Africa, the Middle East,South Asia, South East Asia, South America, Australia, CIS and Russia.

Key Triggers: Strong Jaguar Land Rover business: Strong sales in the UK,

Europe and North America which helped in offsetting weakersales in China and other emerging markets in the Jaguar LandRover business.

Domestic business recovering: Continued robust growth inMHICV segment (35.3 % Y-o-Y) in the domestic business.

New product launches: New launches in the Prima LX and Ultrarange as well as other product enhancements provide a strongfoundation for the future growth.

China showing signs of recovery: Car sales in China advanced inOctober for the first time in four months.


Key Risk: Deterioration in global economic conditions could have a

material adverse impact on the Company's sales and results ofoperations.

Valuation Metrics

CMP (Rs.) 396


CNX NIFTY 7954

52 Week H/L 605/279


P/E (ttm) 10.07

EPS (ttm) 39.24

P/BV (ttm) 1.94


Industry Automobile


Sep 15 June 15


FII / NRIs / OCBs 21.46 20.49



Tata Motors Limited


Profile:Wonderla Holidays Limited is one of the largest amusement parkoperators in India with over 14 years of successful operations.Management has operational experience in the amusement parkindustry for over a decade. Own and operate two amusement parksunder the brand name Wonderla situated at Kochi and Bangalore anda Resort at Bangalore.

Key Triggers: Strong Financials: Consolidated Revenues, EBITDA and PAT

were Rs 1,864.8 mn, Rs 851.7 mn and Rs 506.3 mn in FY15having grown at CAGR of 19.6%, 15.7% and 12.6% over FY11 toFY15. Both the Parks Operational in Kochi and Bangalore aregenerating positive cash flows from operations. Robust balancesheet with Total Debt to Equity at 0.03x as of FY15. HealthyReturn Ratios: FY15 ROCE – 25.7%, FY15 ROE – 20.0%.

In-house manufacturing facility at Wonderla at Kochi: It has in-House Design Capability for the Amusement Park & in-HouseRide Manufacturing Facility in Kochi that is adage advantage tothe company.

Future Guidance: The Company is coming up with its newamusement park in Hyderabad spread over 49 acres of land (27acres developed). The park is expected to be operational fromFY17.


Key Risk: Highly capital intensive business. Land availability, location and connectivity.

Valuation Metrics

CMP (Rs.) 331


CNX NIFTY 7954

52 Week H/L 348/241


P/E (ttm) 31.35

EPS (ttm) 10.50

P/BV (ttm) 4.69


Industry Leisure Facilities


Sep 15 June 15





Wonderla Holidays Ltd.


November 7, 2015 14

Previous Diwali Picks 2014 - Performance

Company Rec. Price High after Rec. Target Price Return from High Return from Target Price /CMP

Bharti Airtel 396 425.45 575 7.4% -14.4%

Biocon 469 487.8 610 4.0% -6.0%

Concor 1305 1994 1685 52.8% 29.1%

Federal Bank 67.5 79.8 92.5 18.2% -18.5%

HPCL Ltd 491 991 680 101.8% 38.5%

IDFC Ltd* 139 175.15 195 26.0% -10.1%

PVR Ltd 642 885 995 37.9% 27.7%

Ricoh India 268 1072 375 300.0% 40.0%

Siemens 798 1558 1045 95.2% 31.0%

Tata Motors 475 606 650 27.6% -16.6%

Tata Steel 448 345.1 675 -23.0% -50.9%

Average Return 59% 4.5%

CNX Nifty 7779 9119 7954 17% 2.2%

*IDFC Ltd. has demerged in IDFC Bank & IDFC Ltd. (1:1)

15November 7, 2015

Wishing you all Happy Diwali

Source: Bloomberg, Ace-equity, Globe Research etc.

Research Team ([email protected] )

Globe Capital Market Ltd704,Ansal Bhawan,16,K.G Marg,

Connaught Place, New Delhi -110001,

India ,Tel: (91 11) 43666400 / 43666500Website: www.globecapital.com

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.globecapital.com/

Disclosure

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group and associate companies, promoters, directors, employees and affiliates.

Globe Commodities Limited, Globe Derivatives and Securities Limited & Globe Fincap Limited are subsidiaries of GCML. Rolex Finvest Private Limited, A to Z Consultants Private

Limited, A to Z Venture Capital Limited, M. Agarwal Stock Brokers Private Limited, A M Share Brokers Private Limited, Shri Adinath Advertising Company Pvt. Ltd., Orient

Landbase Private Limited, Bolt Synthetic Private Limited, Price ponder Private Limited and Lakshya Impex Private Limited are associates of GCML. Globe Comex International

DMCC is step down subsidiary of GCML.

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Regulations, 2014, for use by the recipient as information only and is not for general circulation or public distribution. This report is not to be altered, transmitted, reproduced,

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projections and the forecasts described in this report are based on estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies.

Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the projections are forecasts were based may

not materialize or may vary significantly from actual results and such variations will likely increase over the period of time. This report should not be construed as an offer to sell

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immediately preceding the date of publication of the document.16November 7, 2015

Documents

Investment Ideas Ideas 2015.pdfRevamp of PSU bank: The government rolled out a seven step plan to improve performance of PSU banks. Cleaning of balance sheet: The newly appointed MD