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Fast Track Forward to
Trades & Movements by Sector Theme of the Week
Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, Bowen Square, Dr Ferrière Street, Port-Louis | BRN C07007947Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 213 3475 | Fax (230) 213 3478 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com
1Yr T-Bill
News Snippets
110.00 5.0
ENL(P)
0.0% 3.04-3.52 0.05 0.00
5,596 MCB
Most Active
Volume Most Active
ValueΔ WoW
ROGE 11.821.40
31.15
PAD
NMHL
175
SITLH 21,500.00 43.3 92.3
Latest
26.20
Investment Outlook27-Sep-2013
Equity Equity Fixed IncomeLocal IndicesWeekly Prices:
Listed DebenturesMkt Summary & Highlights
Official ListMauritian Yield Curve
Market AnnouncementsDEM
PLIBORDividend Declarations
Earnings:
NMHL 8.3
Δ WoWLaggers
▲
-4.7 10.2
VEM
▬-0.18% 1,958.74 0.16%
SEMDEX ▼ USD/MUR
ASL INNO
POLI5.4
[%] [# k]-15.7 SBM
-7.0 5.1CSE 133.0029.30
CIMENLC
0.19
[Rs] [%]Leaders
7.003,914-9.5 CIEL
Latest
COVI[Rs]
19.0
50.50 -4.7 5.0
Weekly TMT at Rs100M stood at half itsRs200M Week-39 average.
Market cap. of top liquid stocks slid by0.1%, and that of those on our Daily by 1%.
Foll. inclusion of most recent earnings, PER deteriorated from 17.8x to 19.7x; while Div. Yield – buoyed by NMHL – improved fr2.6% to 2.7%.
Foreign Pariticipation
31.40MSIL NITL
CurrencyOfficial List Domestic FX Market Watch
FX/MUR Spot Rates
[Rs M]
926
DEM
Share of TMT
International Indices
WoW Movements
335
SODIA
Technical Listings NAVs
1,650
1,750
1,850
1,950
Sem
dex
[pts
]
-3
-2
-1
0
1
Δ% in
USD
/MU
R si
nce
30-J
un-1
2
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
1Yr-
GM
TB [%
]
30%
26%
18%
14%
7% 11% MSCH
FIN
TL
INVH
COND
Others
-0.1
-0.4
-0.6
0.3
0.1
-0.6
-0.3
0.0
0.3
MSCH FIN TL INVH COND
WoW
Chn
age
[%]
1
Official Market Indicators
SEMDEXSEM-7SEMTRI [MUR]SEMTRI [USD]Market Cap [MUR bn]Value Traded [MUR M]Net Foreign Purchases [MUR M]Market PER [x]Market Dividend Yield [%]
DEM Market Indicators
DEMEXDEMTRI [MUR]DEMTRI [USD]DEM Market Cap [MUR bn]DEM Value Traded [MUR M]DEM Net Foreign Purchases [MUR M]DEM PER [x]DEM Dividend Yield [%]
Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, Bowen Square, Dr Ferrière Street, Port-Louis | BRN C07007947Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 213 3475 | Fax (230) 213 3478 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com
YTD
27-Sep-2013
0.22%
15.02%
▼
1,962.26▼
▲▼
29.00
192.03
17.79
Week Ended
▼
191.60▲
380.84
▲
6,177.46
1 WeekChange
13.61%
Investment Outlook
134.03%
-0.39% 10.74%
16.24%
27-Sep-2013 52 Week20-Sep-2013
3.32 14.25%
9.00
14.71%
Official Market
▼
▼
Week Ended
48.92
3.46%
16.03%
0.39%3.31182.32%
14.42%
▼
19.35%
▼
▲ 27.79
8.25%
2.20
49.12
-0.39%
2.98
▲▲
▼
23.28
18.58%
188.11
-14.14%
11.53%
199.01
19.68
199.37
-0.18%
20-Sep-2013
15.01%
10.64%
8.53%
1,958.74
-0.18%
-13.67%
94.57-11.58
Change52 Week1 Week
188.84
▼
YTD
34.11%
13.09%12.87%
2.5839.30%
-0.39%
▲ -57.66
6,188.563,134.59 3,121.09
15.16%
157.07 6.46%
Dev. & Enterprise Market27-Sep-2013
-0.04%
-0.18%
157.68
15.74%18.89%
0.43% 14.86%
380.69
214.29
2.67
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Indi
ces R
ebas
ed to
100
on
30-Ju
n-20
10
8 per. Mov. Avg. (Semdex) 8 per. Mov. Avg. (Demex) 8 per. Mov. Avg. (S&P 500)S&P 500 Semdex Demex
2
Investment Outlook 27-Sep-2013
Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, Bowen Square, Dr Ferrière Street, Port-Louis | BRN C07007947 Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 213 3475 | Fax (230) 213 3478 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com
Summary & Highlights A wait-and-see week Weekly TMT at Rs100M stood at half its Rs200M average during Week 39. Turnover slid in-line with a decrease in Foreign Participation to 23% when compared to its 35% 52Wk-average, and perhaps because local investors have already adopted a wait-and-see stance with the National Budget due to be read out in six (6) weeks. Following the inclusion of the most recent FY13 earnings, Market PER on an adjusted (for non-recurrent items) R4Q basis deteriorated from 17.8x to 19.7x; while NMHL’s dividend declaration following a two-year hiatus boosted Div. Yield from 2.6% to 2.7%. The combined market cap. of the twenty most liquid stocks declined by a mere 0.1%, while that of the stocks featuring on our Daily Flash fell by 1%. Finance In a slow week where trades were more balanced, financial stocks only made up 26% of Weekly TMT. SBM which has remained range bound since its unorthodox 1-100 share split, held steady at Rs1.01, while BBCL which traded with VWAP Rs6.27 (-0.2%) jumped to 9Wk-High Rs6.46 (+2.9%) with Q3 coming to a close. MCB which spent most of the week at Rs192.50 (-0.6%) recouped 50cts to Rs193 (-0.3%) following a slight increase in EPS to Rs18.15, ie yielding a PER of 10.6x. MCB’s PAT stood Rs300M below AXYS expectations principally due to a two-fold increase in impairments. CIM slid further on continued profit taking to its lowest level in four weeks, ie to Rs8.22 (-3.1%). Insurers MUA and SWAN were marginally traded at a flat Rs122 and Rs310 respectively, while MEI jumped to Rs98 (+3.2%) seemingly boosted by its highly improved dividends. Travel & Leisure The only hotel group to pursue along an upwards trajectory was SUN which peaked at a new 52Wk-High Rs35 (+2.9%) on Monday but slid to Rs34.50 (+1.5%) by week’s end. LUX held steady at Rs28.40 although trading at a higher Rs28.50 (+0.4%) all week, and NMHL recouped its intra-week Rs2-loss back to Rs80 on Friday after unexpectedly declaring a Rs1 dividend. CHSL’s holding, HTLS, gave up 50cts to Rs22, and a volatile MK slid to Rs12.80 (-0.8%) while ASL – seemingly buoyed by end-of-quarter fever – soared to 2Yr-High Rs110.25 (+5.0%) on thin trading. Multi-Sector Conglomerates | Holdings Among MSCH involved in the sugarcane industry, ALTEO and OMNI improved to Rs35.30 (+1.6%) and Rs85 (+1.2%) respectively, while TERRA inched marginally lower by 10cts to Rs40, and MEDL – whose FY13 are expected by Monday – finished unmoved at Rs66.
IBL and ROGE which after a long time dominated trading, moved in opposite directions. ROGE – driven higher by a return to profits at its 5-Star Heritage hotels – picked up another Rs1 to Rs191 [10% of TMT]; while IBL gave up Rs1 to Rs96 [5% of TMT]. HML was also appreciable traded at an unchanged Rs110 while CIEL gave up 4cts to Rs3.46 (-1.1%). Consumer Staples | Discretionary In-line with their respective drops in profitability, INNO {-8%}, PBL {-52%}, MOR {-39%}, ENLC {-2%}, and CTL {-3%} declined to Rs50.50 (-4.7%), Rs195 (-2.5%), Rs29.45 (-0.8%), Rs21.40 (-7.0%) and Rs23.60 (-1.7%) respectively. Trouble livestock, primate and poultry breeder, SODIA tumbled to 19cts (-9.5%) perhaps in anticipation of its upcoming FY13 financials. With the exception of downstream fuel provider, VEM which edged up by Rs1 to Rs140 having witnessed some 44k shares exchanged at VWAP Rs139.21 (+0.2%); all of CSE, MSIL and UBS soared to 1½Yr-High Rs133.25 (+5.1%), 2¼Yr-High Rs31.40 (+5.0%), and UBS to a new All-Time High Rs35.10 (+3.2%) on very thin trading, just days before Q3 end. Materials Among construction material companies, UBP and GAMMA moved in opposite directions. GAMMA which renewed with profits following a turnaround in its Malagasy lotto operations slid by 10cts to Rs28.40; while UBP which experienced a slight improvement in EPS on the back of exceptional dividends and improvements at associates, picked up 50cts to Rs95. PIM – unaffected by the halving of its earnings – traded at a flat Rs80, while PCCL experienced a low-vol. ascent to 52Wk-High Rs47.20 (+2.8%). Property Property stocks experienced a rough week. ENLL eased off further to Rs47.90 (-2.1%) in-line with a 22% fall in YoY EPS, and COVI cascaded down to 5Wk-Low Rs7 (-16%). CAUD and BLFE both traded at flat Rs1.10 and Rs7.16 respectively in spite of positive FY13 results. Investment Holdings The results of the unforeseen trading patterns were that the traditional MDIT-POLI-NITL trinity did not dominate trades. PAD witnessed exchanges of 103k shares at a level Rs81; followed by POLI which jumped to its highest level of 2013, i.e. to Rs7.02 (+0.9%); and ENL(P) which soared on thin vols. to 9Wk-High Rs29.30 (+5.4%). WoW climbers include: ENIT at Rs46.25 (+0.5%) and UFL at Rs6.92 (+0.6%) which both disclosed improved profits this week. On the other hand, WoW declines were noted on: MDIT at Rs5.80, NITL at Rs26.20 (-4.7%), and DRIL at Rs51 (-1.9%).
3
Foreign Participation
Market Announcements
Dividend Declarations
CIM ▲ROCK ▲MEI ▲ABC ▬NMHL ▲
Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, Bowen Square, Dr Ferrière Street, Port-Louis | BRN C07007947Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 213 3475 | Fax (230) 213 3478 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com
Activity Spread
Investment Outlook27-Sep-2013
2.40 1.30 85% 26-Sep-13 14-Oct-13 03-Dec-13 Fin 2
1.00 0.50 100% 27-Sep-13 16-Oct-13 02-Dec-13 Fin 1
Net Flows
The United Basalts Products Ltd (UBP)UBP has received the SEM’s approval for the listing of up to 10M 5-Year Repo+1.2% bonds with a par value of Rs100 each.The subscription process will take place via a private placement.
IPRO African Market Leaders Fund (IAMLF)The SEM’s LEC approved the listing of 1M Non-Voting Redeemable Participating no-par value Preference Shares of IAMLFClass (I2) Institutional Class shares (IAMFLI2) on Oct 16th 2013. The subscription process will take place via privateplacement at $157.96 per share. IAMFLI2 aims to achieve long-term capital growth by investing in liquid sub-Saharanequities.
0.12 — — 20-Sep-13 07-Oct-13 24-Oct-13 Fin 2
1.70
— — 13-Sep-13 09-Oct-13 14-Oct-13 Int 2
1.70 0% 26-Sep-13 16-Oct-13 13-Jan-14 Fin 1
COMPANYDividend Change Key Dates Properties
Current Previous Div/Div Declaration Ex-Div. Pay Date Type Freq. p.a.
0.04
41%
13% 9%
8%
6%
23% MCB
NMHL
PAD
SBM
ALTEO
Others
-2
-5
-1 -1
0
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
MCB NMHL PAD SBM ALTEO
Net
For
eign
pur
chas
es [R
s m]
4
Weekly Official List Movements
SEMDEXMCB ASBM HBBCL SCIMFINCMEIMUASWAN
NMHL RSUN RLUX RMKASL
ALTEO* ATERRA BOMNI HIBL AROGE RHML
INNOPBL BMORGOLICMPL
VEMMSMENLC
MCFIUBPGAMMPIM
ENLL AMERITCAUDROCKSAREFUTDL
MDITNITLPOLIPADBMHLDALE
Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, Bowen Square, Dr Ferrière Street, Port-Louis | BRN C07007947Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 213 3475 | Fax (230) 213 3478 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com
▼
Con.
Sta
ples
1.10
Con.
Dis
c.
▼▲
190.00
4.1
Mat
eria
ls 25.50
—
▬
▬
6.1
80.00
▬▼▲
Mul
ti-se
ctor
Con
g.
122.00
106.50
12.60
110.00
85.00 84.00
3.743.74
Prop
erty
26.20
▬
▲▬
5.80 5.88
6.98
Inve
stm
ent H
oldi
ng
—
Change
▼
PBV
1.05
10.2
▲
YTD
2.1
▼
8.366.28
67.00
7.02
1.016.46
▬122.00
8.10
—
▬
▬
▲
191.00
80.00
96.00
0.0
2.2
3.0
25.00
3.5
3.6
3.2
2.5
0.7
0.8
—0.0
97.2598.00
▼
▲
9.02
▬
47.90
140.00
50.50199.25195.00
193.00 193.50
▼
▲
34.75
1.10
▲
34.50 34.00
97.00
40.00
▲
▼
▬
▬
50.50
35.30 35.40 4.3
18.00
▬
215.00
0.067.00
— —
30.8%▼▼ 0.2
8.3
▬
2.3
0.3
6.96
5.76
31.2%—
49.8%81.00
11.4%215.0081.00
-56.0%
81.00
8.50179.00
-46.6% —
11.610.8310.00
28.1%
12.7
▬ 0.0
67.00
26.95
94.7594.5028.40
—▼
1.35
9.02▬
▬1.08
5.50
0.0
▬
1.6115.00
27.50 27.5%
—
0.0
—
▬▲
25.500.40.9
95.00
1.35
28.50
14.71,654 2.7
ROELow DY
19.0
52-Wk
▼
Investment Outlook
VWAP HighYoY27-Sep-13
5.515.0% 19.7
1.73.4
0.5
1.1
4.01.56
8.95
192.50
18.2%4.90 8.2
678.75
1.35.90
13.1%
1.272.00100.0013.8%
15.0%92.3
232
34.5%
59.3%
0.30.9
20-Sep
1,965
0.76-27.6%-19.0%0.2
18.00
8.8
2.7 2.6
Trav
el &
Lei
sure
122.25
Fina
ncia
l
59.00
14.70
9.5
53.1%
89.3%28.0%
155.001,958.7
3.94.80.3
▬
N/A8.22
80.00
13.8018.00
16.7%3.2
6.26
25.5%
0.0 2.7130.00
As atWeek Ended
27-Sep-2013
10.6194.001,962.3
23.4%1.01 31.3%1.01
PER27-SepOfficial Mkt
Val.
31.6
14.9
80.00
11.90.1
28.40 28.40
18.10
110.2512.9012.80
34.5579.50
26.7%28.50
5.9%
8.48
14.70.4%
95.00
1.50.4
310.00 315.00
12.90
45.5%
3.13.80.7
35.0082.00
15.00
34.341.6%
340.00
3.5
0.275.3%
26.7%
—
110.00
28.90
65.8
0.7
2.8
5.4
52.00
75.9%
2.011.4%
-5.5%
1.5126.00
9.55
3.2 0.8
4.11.6
2.6
—0.0
17.9
—
1.00.60.9
0.6
0.6
2.127.30
7.80.5
27.001.3
13.6310.00
18.3
70.50 1.7
0.0118.3
4.8
27.605.90
7.00
3.70
1.00
5.5
1.20
82.50
1.3
22.4
0.91.927.10 19
0.7
19.60
62.00
52.9
84.00215.00
25.50
1.5
15.7
0.8
0.3
37.60
1.15.50 5.50
28.50
1.2
4.9
26.6
3.9
4.111.7
—
0.0
33.4
1.5
—
1.1
2.5
9.19.8
20.618.3
—
0.6
3.46.8
0.4
0.0 1.0
1.9
0.0
0.72.3
2,2145.6
* ALTEO did not publish FUEL's FY12 attributable earnings, hence our R4Q PER is not accurate as for the other listed companies
15.0
87.7 5.357.0
10.1
12.2
—
4.65
0.3
0.4
1.7
1.40 —1.5
18.6011.4%
-8.9%
25.0%-18.0%
-0.1%
-15.1%
30.2%
24.4%
N/A34.2%
9.3
N/A
-7.9%-4.9% 87.50
24.9%
6.70
61.50
9.00
54.00
2.9
—
4.1
23.4
0.4
3.8%
5.9%
3.3
5.3
23.5%
130.00
—
-0.7%
—
180.00
31.10
12.80
134.00
—
1.005.00
—
1.4
—
10.0%
0.030.0% 0.40.310.00
3.62.2
41.5
—
0.79.7
6.00
0.2
-10.4% -12.2%
23.50
-0.9%
25.7
0.08
7.5
17.0%
—
25.20
78.00
16.9
101.00
-2.7% -14.5%
20.9%
-2.5%
1.2%
34.4%
34.2%
-12.4%
5.3%
3.1%
12.60
53.00
0.04
139.25
200.00
110.00
139.00
—
1.0 8.9
—
15.00
30.90—
50.00
40.90
21.1
-4.4%
8.60
29.00
0.0
10.8
4.40
20.3%
35.3%
80.25
3.6
36.50
26.7%45.9
98.003.1
-15.2%
193.00
191.0010.6%110.00
-0.9%
2.7
10.0%
15.1
16.9%
190.0095.75
42.6088.50
74.0032.4%
7.4%
53.00
3.9%40.10 40.0017.5%84.50
5.410.2
▼
—21.40▼
▼
8.10 —
—30.05
—
0.3
2.5
23.00 21.55
—
0.50.229.45
0.548.95 47.35
0.8
25.0%11.8
0.04 -50.0%
2.7
0.2
21.9%
37.50
-2.2%
105.00
29.70
11.4
109.00
216.00
24.1%14.5%
5
Weekly DEM Movements
DEMEXANGLO
CHSL SHTLSMOLISCT HTPL
CIELMEDLEUDCUTIN
PHINVITALQBLCSE AUNSE RSODIALFLLMLCMILMCOSSAIL
CTLABCACCMSILRHTUBS
BYCHCHEMGAZPCCL
FORTMFRE
ASCEBLFECIMOCOVISITLH
BTEL
MASC
DRILENL(P)ENITFIDESUFLALMABRILMSH
Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, Bowen Square, Dr Ferrière Street, Port-Louis | BRN C07007947Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 213 3475 | Fax (230) 213 3478 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com
0.07.00
42.00
157.68
66.00▼
▬
34.00
▬
140.00
—
47.20
160.00
26.00
22.00
▬
▬
489.00
—
▬
▬
—
Fin.
27-Sep-2013
▬
M-s
ec. H
ldg.
—
▬
133.25▬
▬
130.00
▬
—
▲
12.50▬
▬
9.00
—
▬0.0
—
▼
▬
Com
.
▼
▬
Cons
umer
Sta
ples
0.1952.00
123.00
5.74 —
0.51,420
—
—
0.8
140.00
10.50
0.3
47.50 0.0
21.50
0.015,000
7.16 7.16 7.16
6.80
DEM
12.50
0.2
▲10.50
-70.8%
-25.0%
0.0
26.00
▼
▲
Trav
el &
Lei
sure 23.00
155.00
10.50
Con.
Dis
cret
iona
ry
35.10
29.90
8.3%
—
—
0.0%
▬
—
Week EndedVal.
—
—
—
650.00
—
23.00 —22.00
6.5%
0.1921.50
0.1
-2.9%
—
Investment Outlook
▬
8.1%
31.9%
13.8%
▬
-26.2%
27-Sep
123.00
5.9%
1.9%
-25.0%
9.3%
133.25
0.021.50
23.1%
6.80
9.00
123.00
3.165.75
-75.6%
-5.6%0.1
45.007.12
0.43.46
31.9%
30.0%
-2.6%
12.5%
Change
6.3%
-18.4%
19.6%
-1.9%
0.0
66.0012.50
157.07
22.20
5.74
650.00
—
0.0—
130.00
31.40
—155.00 —
1,405
22.00
47.20
YTD
152.00
42.00
9.90
157.85
70.50
127.00
6.80
50.00
186.0024.90
-10.3%
20-Sep
—
8.30489.00
▲
▬
▬
45.90▬
—140.00
1,420
170.00
—
35.10
▬
0.5
0.0
29.3025.6%
▬
▬
Inve
stm
ent H
oldi
ng
0.0
101.25
2,830 3.6
Ind.
Mat
eria
ls
3.9%
——
489.00
1,420
13.3%
52.00
▼
13.3%
52.00
Hlth
.Pr
oper
ty
0.0
8.40 6.15
▬
▼
-23.6%2,940 2,450
45.25
3.3
0.0
2.7
79,630
332,700
21,25021,500
54.0
5.5
-29.3%
7.00
3.2
45.25
2,700
25.3%
93.25
▬
13.9%2,700▬
101.25 101.00
2.1
101.25▲
2,120
93.25
38.6%
22.50
7.10
48.1
60.002.9%
25.00
6.40
14.5
780.00152.00
0.0
923.00923.0050.00
52.00
7.6%
-2.1%4.8%
3.7%
1.5%
3.50
9.00
42.00
— —126.75
45.007.12
0.21
—
44.2%
9.2
10.9
0.07.9
1.1
1.140.00
13.30
0.78
-20.0% 9.65133.00 96.00
45.8050.00
13.8%
20.4%
9.8%
4.8%
25.6
650.003.3140.05 27.8DY
3.32 —
10.4
10.6%
10.6
438.00
11.4
0.3
10.2
229%
925.00
3.5
2.3%
1.7
10.6
As at
59.50
6.70
3.60
0.045.5
2.40.0
0.9
2.350.7
6.10
11.5%13.8%
9.0▼▬
22.60
27-Sep-13
—
0.8570.00
19.00
9.9
—18.50
ROE
0.2
34.6
—1.95.5
2.7
1.0
76.4
1.21.1
0.0
—
— —
2.5—
HighVWAP
4.7
0.8
0.8
7.30.8
16.7
19.20122.00
34,400
6.7%
—
1.1
4.4
0.0
2.6
5.3
24.2
0.3
5.90
2.6
47.1
9.3
1.4
0.02.0
13.86.1%
0.1
1.12,130
-5.6%
49.8039.60
45.30
3.6
39.6% 42.4%
27.80
2,130 2,130
— —
1.79
0.2
1.79
0.0
6.88 6.88 0.2
27.9
7.6086.00
4.65 6.7
46.00
6.92
51.6%2.2 60.9%
46.255.8
12.7
30.50
1.3
1.6 9.6
12.1
72.5%5.1
2.4
—
13.7
2.8
1.1
-10.9%
38.0%
-7.0%
70.00
19.7
43.4
24.70
10.5
0.50.5
0.6
-6.8%
0.0%
10.5%
0.0 1.1
0.0
47.20
0.8165.00
0.53.2
1.4
1.6 —
0.4
46.50
N/A
0.6101.00
6.80
0.9
0.6
38.9
2.3
—
-23.6%
9.2%
2.3
—
51.5%
0.0
2.8
▼
1.81
0.7
18.20
16.6 2.0
—
15.5
5.2
1.6
0.2%
6.9%
6.35
-0.5%-27.6%
7.0%
89.00
6.54.2
1.5
25.55.2
2.1
142.00 0.73.8
39.50
0.0
3.0
16.2
0.4
11.2
17.7
0.12
1.9
49.9
—0.6
0.67.6
27.10
0.7130.00
—
0.5
1.58.80
-5.8%
4.5
8.9%1.3
118.00
15.9%
23.10 0.0
7.8
0.6
1.20
140.00
5.326.00
18.6%
42.00
15,000
0.0
6.3
1.6
1.30.9
-10.3%
16.90
0.7
61.5
4.8
6.4
—11.016.30
45.00
20.6 2.90.54.80
7.00
55.4
PBVPER
1.8—
—
11.50
4.4—
3.4
0.5
0.60.6
3.316.10
Low
34.8%11.7
0.95.4
—
2.2
17.8
0.0
52-WkYoY
▲
▲▲
▬
23.65
31.406.7%
0.9%▬
—6.80
0.1
170.00
30.8%46.25
▬
▬
0.0
34.00
-26.9%
27.7551.25
34.00
12.4%
0.2
1.2%
157.00
27.5%145.00
170.00
51.6%
50.00 -19.2%
-6.7%—
3.0%
—
51.00
10.6%
35.1%
24.0023.60
35.5015.1%
0.0
-20.4%
—
35.10
8.95
2.00
29.00
25.20
31.4019.70
7.5%
14.50
0.0
4.2
3.5
1,170
8.9
0.5
15.0
3.4
24.0%
52.00
6
Official List Results for Financial Year ended Jun 30th 2013
Result comments
MCB
MEI
FINC
T&L
LUX
ALTEO
IBL
ROGE
INNO
PBL
MOR
MSM
ENLC
GAMM
UBP
PIM
ENLL
MERIT
CAUD
ROCK
UTDL
MDIT
NITL
PAD
* Attributable earnings adjusted for non-recurrent items and fair value gains
Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, Bowen Square, Dr Ferrière Street, Port-Louis | BRN C07007947Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 213 3475 | Fax (230) 213 3478 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com
Con
Dis
c.Pr
oper
ty
▼ -1.76 -1.31 -34.1 Axess' (Car dealer) profits improved to Rs26M, while a Rs200M shortfall in its industrial segment(mainly construction) → greater losses; esp. after Port Chambly went into administration.
▲ 6.06 5.64 7.4Overall turnover ↓ 5%, but core biz. marg. ↑ from 14% to 16%. However, retail and agri. biz.registered steeper losses. Higher EPS stemmed fr assocs. & excep. divs.
▼ 0.49 0.84
▼ 2.05 2.61 -21.5 Op. profits ↑ 59% due to ↑ sugar prices. However, substantially reduced proceeds fr sales of land &investments → EPS ↓.
-0.59 -0.03 -1,988 FY12 losses stemmed from the initial setting of the company, while FY13 losses stemmed from thedecreased fair value of its real estate investments coupled with FX rate.
▬ — -0.96 — Not yet released. Expectd by Sep 30th.
12.26 -52.4 Although revenue ↑ 6.5%, op. profits ↓ 15% due to the ↑ taxes on alcoholic bevs + new "sugar" taxon drinks. EPS halved due to substantially accentuated losses (fr Rs50M to Rs130M) in Réu. & Mada.
▼ 1.40 2.30 -39.4 Rev. ↓ 8% in part from the drop in retail prices of edible oils + volatile prices of crude edible oilsreduced margins from 5.6% to 3.8%.
Inve
stm
ent ▬ — 0.07 — Not yet released. Expectd by Sep 30th.
▲ 0.46 0.02 2,200As markets, both local and overseas, picked up, NITL experienced Rs108M in fair value gains againstRs78M in losses the year before.
▲ 0.04 -0.09 L to PWhile PAD benefitted from the improved results of CAUD, it mostly benefitted from higher gains on"bargain purchases".
Mat
eria
ls
▲ 1.46 -0.66 L to PAlthough Lottery revenue dropped 10%, a renewal with profits in Madagascar, resulted in overallprofitabililty for the group.
▼ 4.74 9.75 -51.4 Reduction in crate sales volumes resulted in an Rs11M drop in turnover which trickled down to itsEPS.
-41.5 Rev. halved and margins shrank from 27% to 18%. With its on-going Ellipsis project, we expect thesurplus to fund its construction.
Con.
Sta
ples
▼
▲ 0.05 0.04 41.2Boosted by improved rentals and security business, both revenue and operating profits improved byRs9M.
4.43 4.81 -7.9 Although revenue ↑ 7%, op. profits ↓ 7%. INNO was unable to offset rising feed & prod. coststhrough its increased poultry retail price; ergo the reduced margins.
▼ 5.83
Cong
/Hld
gs
▲ 1.93 0.85 126.2AXYS FY12 adj. EPS = FUEL 9Mth + DRBC FY12; hence we are unable to compare results. That theonly comparable was at TPC (ALTEO's Tanzanian sugar ops.) where net income ↓ 18%.
▬ — 6.37 — Not yet released. Expectd by Sep 30th.
▲ 7.42 3.50 112.0AXYS adj. EPS is for a 12Mth period and excludes discontinued ops. PAT boosted by incrementalimprovements across most sectors, but principally by a turnaround at up-market Heritage Resorts.
▼
▬ — -19.01 — Deadline extension obtained from the FSC. Expected by Nov 30th.
% Δ
Fina
ncia
ls
▲ 18.15 17.32 4.8Loans & Depo. ↑ 10% → const. LDRs & NII Marg. NFCI ↑ 18% boosted by X-border trade fin. CIRimproved fr 46% to 45%. EBT before impair. ↑ 13%, but impair. 2x ↑ to Rs1bn → 5% EPS growth.
▼ 10.31 10.40 -0.9 Commendable performance in spite of a slight dip in earnings. Op. profits fell 10% due to floodrelated claims. Both insurance and leasing bizs. grew by >15%.
▲ 0.27 0.19
Jun-12
40.9Substantial ↑ in EBT from Rs31M to Rs42M driven by improved leasing business whichcompensated for heightened share of losses at associates.
—▬ — 0.24
Investment Outlook27-Sep-2013
Adj. EPS*Yr Ended YoY
Jun-13
Not yet released. Expectd by Sep 30th.
7
DEM Results for Financial Year ended Jun 30th 2013
Result comments
MOLI
TPL
MEDL
EUDC
UTIN
PHIN
SODIA
LFL
LMLC
CTL
ABC
ACC
MSIL
RHT
UBS
MAT GAZ
ASCE
BLFE
DRIL
ENL(P)
ENIT
FIDES
UFL
ALMA
BRIL
MSH
* Attributable earnings adjusted for non-recurrent items and fair value gains
Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, Bowen Square, Dr Ferrière Street, Port-Louis | BRN C07007947Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 213 3475 | Fax (230) 213 3478 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com
▬ — 39.41 — Related to MEDL, EUDC and SODIA.
Inve
stm
ent H
oldi
ngs
Cong
/Hld
gs
▼ 16.17 16.86 -4.1 Reduced income from FAST (stone crushing) and dividends almost entirely offset by higher proceedsfrom the disposal of investments.
▲ 1.03 0.47 119 Related to FIDES and BLFE.
▬ — 3.10 — Related to MEDL, EUDC and SODIA.
▬ — 56.16 — Related to MEDL, EUDC and SODIA.
▬ — 1.88 — Related to ENLL, ENIT, ENLC, ROGE, ASCE and NMHL.
▲ 1.66 0.62 169AXYS used company EPS for a like-with-like comparion, but will switch to group EPS starting thisquarter. Performance related to NMHL, ROGE and ASCE.
▲ 3.72 2.82 32 Related to CIEL, ALTEO and CTL.
—
▬ — 0.26 — Not yet released. Expectd by Sep 30th.
▬ — 15.67 —
4.46 -0.99 L to P Turnaround in bus operation from losses of Rs7M in FY12 to profits of Rs14M + fair value gains fromMCB's share price ascent.
▬ — 6.62 — Not yet released. Expectd by Sep 30th.
14.85 11.95 24.2
▼ 4.54 4.68 -2.9 PAT marginally lower (Rs2M) than FY12. The decline in woven fabrics sales was offset bysubstantially improved knitwear segment.
▬
▼ 5.09 8.35
— -0.64 — Not yet released. Expectd by Sep 30th.
6.12 — Not yet released. Expectd by Sep 30th.
Prop
erty ▼ 36.50 76.90 -52.5 Rental income plunged significantly due to the closure of Riche Terre commercial centre for
renovation works and the disposal of properties amid the CIM/ROGE spin-off.
▬ 0.43 0.00 N/A Rs62M in profits stemmed from its joint venture with IOREC in the development of the "Azuri" real-estate development at Roches Noires.
Cons
umer
Dis
cret
iona
ry -39.0 Fewer cars sold led to an 11% decline turnover and margins shrank from 5% to 3%.
▬ — 24.67 — Not yet released. Expectd by Sep 30th.
▬
▲
Jun-13 Jun-12 % Δ
Cons
umer
Sta
ples
▼ 4.80 10.59 -54.7 PBL's holding company. Please consult PBL's comments.
▬ — -0.03 — Not yet released. Expectd by Sep 30th.
▼ 1.95 3.45 -43.6 Turnover from sales increased by Rs150M, but margins halved from 6% to 3% due to the increasedcost of raw materials.
▲
▬ — 1.07 — Not yet released. Expectd by Sep 30th.
T&L ▼ 0.55 0.89 -38.2 Drop in occupancy rates triggered by fewer German & French tourists coupled with partial closure of
hotel for planned refurbishments.
▲ 0.13 0.10 23.2 Refurb. at Hennessy Park + opening of Wellness center @ Le Suffren boosted topline by Rs19M.Although op. margins shrank by 200bps to 11% smaller fin. Costs → improved earnings.
Investment Outlook27-Sep-2013
Adj. EPS*Yr Ended YoY
Not yet released. Expectd by Sep 30th.
Revenue, boosted by both improved domestic sales and exports, jumped 25% at constant margins.
8
SEM Debt Securities
LUX 9% ConvertibleMCB Repo+1.35%UTIN Repo+3%OMNI 7.15% [Rs k]OMNI 5.7% [Rs k]
Fixed Income Instruments
Moody's Credit Rating: Baa1
Overnight [% p.a.]1 Week [% p.a.]1 Month [% p.a.]3 Months [% p.a.]* Assumes conversion into equity in Dec-14; and factors for conversion discount and dilution
Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, Bowen Square, Dr Ferrière Street, Port-Louis | BRN C07007947Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 213 3475 | Fax (230) 213 3478 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com
1,010.4 1,000
▼
20-Sep
104.11
1,136.3
6.3%
27-Sep8.8% 3.5% 12.26
27-Sep-2013
YTM Week Ended YTM @ FV
Investment Outlook
▲ 11.94
-7.0%
Debentures
2.67
106.14
@ Par
20
-16
1,049.6
-20
@ Par
YTD in bps
27-Sep
3.29
105.47
3.7%
1,104.2
106.82
27-Sep
5.4%
12.77
YTM
101.62
1 Week
0.00%
6.2%
13.5%
100
8.8%
▲▬
2.673.29
-0.9%
@ ParAXYS Fair Valuation
99.85
27-Sep-20131.68
1,000
Settlement Price
▲
20-Sep-2013
10.7%
Change
7.3% 7.3%
5.4%
▬
1,134.1
10
PLIBOR
-2 2.14
27-Sep
▬ 0.00% -4.6%
4.2%
5.8% 100
3.07%
Week Ended
4.8%
YTD
▲
0.00%
1.632.14
5.4%
5.8%▼ 5.6% 5.6% 4.2% 7.2% 1,038.8
1
2
3
4
INte
rest
Rat
e [%
]
PLIBOR 1-Day PLIBOR 3-Mth Tbill 91-Day
3.0 4.3
6.2
2
4
6
8
10
0 5 10 15
Sove
reig
n Yi
elds
[%
]
Instrument Maturity [Yrs]
Poly. (Current)
Poly. (Previous)
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
-100
0
100
200
300
p
[bps]
YTM
pre
miu
m o
ver R
isk
Free
[bp
s]
MCB Repo+1.35% UTIN Repo+3% OMNI 3Yr 5.7% LUX 9% CB*
Current
Prev. Yr
9
SEM Listed Fund Net Asset Values
Africa Sustainability Fund (ASF)
CIEL Investment Ltd (CIEL)
Evisa Investments Ltd (EIL)
Fidelis Opportunity Fund PCC - Focus Cell 2 (FOF)
Global Diversified Fund PCC - Cell No. 1 (GDF)
IPRO Growth Fund Ltd (IGF)
JPT Capital Agrifund (JCA)
Mauritius Development Investment Trust Co Ltd (MDIT)
National Investment Trust Ltd (NIT)
Novare Africa Fund PCC (NAF)
NinetyEast Timaeus Capital Fund PCC - Cell A (NTCF)
P.O.L.I.C.Y. Ltd (POLI)
RSJ Prop, PCC
Theseus Property Fund Ltd (TPFL)
Triangle Real Estate India Fund LLC (TREIF)
AXYS Capital Management Ltd (ACML)
– ACM India Focus Fund (AIFF)
– ACM Aussie Ltd (AAL)*
– ACM European Ltd (AEL)*
Global Investment Opportunities Fund Ltd (GIOF)
– Kotak Indian Growth Fund (Class A)
– Kotak Indian Mid-Cap Fund (Class C)
– Kotak Liquid Fund (Class I)
Imara
– Imara African Opportunities Fund Ltd
– Imara Global Fund Ltd
Lancelot Global PCC*
– Commodities Partners International (CPIL)
Kotak Investment Opportunities Fund Ltd (KIOFL) Class D Shares
– Kotak Indian Infrastructure & Realty Fund (Series 1)
– Kotak Indian Infrastructure & Realty Fund (Series 2)
*NAV provided every Friday. AXYS uses the NAV value closest to month's end
Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, Bowen Square, Dr Ferrière Street, Port-Louis | BRN C07007947Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 213 3475 | Fax (230) 213 3478 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com
▼
$
388
0.68
899
▼
957
-0.3%
0.09
▼
▼
▼
5.32
72.56 -0.3%
16.06
-27.3%
▼
-15.0%
4.2%
-3.7%
-13.9%
17.10
2.92
-12.5%
$
$
$
433
-29.3%
▼
2.73 -29.3%
3.04
$
0.80
16.89
-32.1%
-1.3%
13.0%
▼
-1.8%23.65
0.0%
24.49
8.698.70
▼
8.3%
7.3%
▬ $
-0.2%901
1.75
#REF!
▲
9.6%▲
—
▼
▼ 2.1%
0.71$
1,602
9.2%
1.29
$ (AUD)
72.87
401
-0.3%
110112
0.6%
55.01
Rs
4.31
-0.4% 4.8%
12.9%
—
1.5%
16.3% 59.4%
—
1.23
1.00
49.36 51.53
1.00
-22.1%
-0.9%
7.4%
Rs 27.57
1.00
26.92
17.1%
70.24
1.6%
$
0.0%
€
0.0%
-12.3%
▲
£
26.68
▲
112
$
▼
0.79
▼
▼
▲
▼
▲
1.27
▲
0.79
24.18
0.77
10.84
8,919 8,960 8,997
Rs
1.70
902
-12.8%
-2.1%
€
5.39
106.61
Rs 4.23
270
$
300
4.36
0.09
10.84 10.84
249
5.44
1.63
Rs 0.08
▼
$
3.30
2.84
-12.3%
3.08
$
£
Jun-13
1,605 1,605 2.7%
4.6%
3.9%0.4%
$
YTD
-36.0%
1.1%
£
890
May-13
8.65
2.72 -42.1%▼
MtoM$
Official Market
Investment Outlook27-Sep-2013
Jul-130.1%
4.70
Change
Rs
942▲
4.67
Month Ended
10
Domestic FX Market Watch
Sep-2013Aug-2012Jul-2013Jun-2013May-2013Apr-2013Mar-2013Feb-2013Jan-2013H2-2012H1-2012H2-2011H1-2011H2-2010TOTALTOTAL weighted average price
Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, Bowen Square, Dr Ferrière Street, Port-Louis | BRN C07007947Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 213 3475 | Fax (230) 213 3478 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com
78.1
31.83
The Bank of Mauritius intervened on the domestic foreign exchange market on Tuesday and Friday of this week purchasing atotal of $0.7M at VWAP Rs30.40 and €0.4 at VWAP Rs41.03.
148.6 77.1
28.4
Intervention Periods
364.5
31.08
27.1
Price [Rs]
Investment Outlook27-Sep-2013
246.6 30.64
4.0 30.79 49.8 40.45
47.9 3.1
Price [Rs]Qty [M]
40.65
30.56
39.13 30.55
3.3 38.94
EUR
43.3
264.8
40.74
219.5 40.53
USD
30.93
40.48
40.72
19.8
31.04 40.25
28.44
40.09 1,086.2
30.05
24.6
Qty [M]
2.1 30.84 9.9 40.91
45.3
7.9
0.7 30.40 3.2
40.44 15.0
19.2
40.40
29.57
15.3 31.01 44.8
31.7
39.6
40.76
29.27 38.58
37.00
38.00
39.00
40.00
41.00
42.00
43.00
26.50
27.50
28.50
29.50
30.50
31.50
32.50
MU
R per EUR M
UR
per U
SD
BoM Interventions USD EUR ECB derived EUR
11
Forex Rates
USD / MUREUR / MURGBP / MURZAR / MURAUD / MUR100 JPY / MUR
International Indices
DOW JONESNASDAQS&P 500FTSE 100CAC 40DAXALL ORDNIKKEI 225HANG SENGBSE 30
Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, Bowen Square, Dr Ferrière Street, Port-Louis | BRN C07007947Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 213 3475 | Fax (230) 213 3478 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com
27-Sep-2013
▼
29.58-16.8%
Change
-0.98% -9.8%
-0.5%
▼
31.15
3.16
▼
31.56
▲
-1.37%1,698.67
31.77
3.24
20-Sep-2013
31.10 0.16%
International Indices
1,722.34
-0.46%
Investment Outlook
▼
▼
▲▼
49.97
▼▼
▼
-0.90%
19,844.02 20,263.71 2.1%
5,270.80 0.60%
23,502.51 11.4%
27-Sep-2013
21.7%
42.11 -0.28%
8,664.10
YTD
8,694.18
27-Sep-2013
20.3%14,742.42
1 Week
-2.47%
41.99
-10.1%
0.15%49.89
Week Ended
AXYS Stockbroking Ltd has issued this document without consideration of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any individualrecipient. AXYS Stockbroking Ltd will not be under any liability for loss or damage of any kind whatsoever arising in connection with the contents of thisdocument. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment.This document has been based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but which have not been independently verified. AXYSStockbroking Ltd makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. AXYSStockbroking Ltd is a member of the Stock Exchange of Mauritius and is licensed by the Financial Services Commission.
15,328.30 15,636.55 -1.97% 18.5% 13.7%3,787.43 3,789.38 -0.05% 27.9% 20.7%
6,565.59
42.0% 66.4%14,760.07▼
0.12%-1.26% 2.4%
▲
5.8%23,207.04
-2.07%
18.8%-0.35%
6,625.39
5,302.26
17.4%
13.7%
-0.9%
15.6%4,206.04
▲
▼
Change
▲
52 Weeks
20-Sep-2013
4.6%
52 WeeksWeek Ended
0.67% -21.0%-12.6%
-14.8%
0.6%YTD
29.29
1 Week0.3%
13.8%
21.1%10.8%
4,186.72
Currencies
13.6%
2.4%
ORR Start
80
85
90
95
100
105
Inde
x =
100
on
30-
Jun-
2010
8 per. Mov. Avg. (USD) 8 per. Mov. Avg. (EUR) 8 per. Mov. Avg. (GBP)USD EUR GBP
12