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Investor Presentation Citi 2018 Basic Materials Conference November 2018

Investor Presentation - Nutrien · 2018. 11. 27. · Citi 2018 Basic Materials Conference. November 2018. ... and the expected synergies associated with the merger of Agrium and PotashCorp,

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Page 1: Investor Presentation - Nutrien · 2018. 11. 27. · Citi 2018 Basic Materials Conference. November 2018. ... and the expected synergies associated with the merger of Agrium and PotashCorp,

Investor PresentationCiti 2018 Basic Materials ConferenceNovember 2018

Page 2: Investor Presentation - Nutrien · 2018. 11. 27. · Citi 2018 Basic Materials Conference. November 2018. ... and the expected synergies associated with the merger of Agrium and PotashCorp,

Forward Looking StatementsCertain statements and other information included in this presentation constitute "forward-looking information" or "forward-looking statements" (collectively, "forward-looking statements") under applicablesecurities laws (such statements are often accompanied by words such as "anticipate", “forecast”, "expect", "believe", "may", "will", "should", "estimate", "intend" or other similar words). All statements in thispresentation, other than those relating to historical information or current conditions, are forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to: Nutrien's 2018 annual guidance, including expectationsregarding our EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA (both consolidated and by segment); expectations regarding dividends per share and other shareholder returns in 2018; expectations regarding the on-goingsale of equity interests including the net proceeds to be realized in connection here within; capital spending expectations for 2018; expectations regarding performance of our business segments in 2018;our market outlook for 2018, including potash, nitrogen and phosphate outlook and including anticipated supply and demand for our products and services, expected market and industry conditions withrespect to crop nutrient application rates, planted acres, crop mix, prices and margin; expectations regarding completion of previously announced expansion projects (including timing and volumes ofproduction associated therewith) and acquisitions and divestitures; and the expected synergies associated with the merger of Agrium and PotashCorp, including timing thereof. These forward-lookingstatements are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control, which could cause actual results to differ materially from such forward-lookingstatements. As such, undue reliance should not be placed on these forward-looking statements.

All of the forward-looking statements are qualified by the assumptions that are stated or inherent in such forward-looking statements, including the assumptions referred to below and elsewhere in thisdocument. Although Nutrien believes that these assumptions are reasonable, this list is not exhaustive of the factors that may affect any of the forward-looking statements and the reader should not placean undue reliance on these assumptions and such forward-looking statements. The additional key assumptions that have been made include, among other things, assumptions with respect to Nutrien'sability to successfully integrate and realize the anticipated benefits of its already completed (including the merger of Agrium and PotashCorp) and future acquisitions, and that we will be able to implementour standards, controls, procedures and policies at any acquired businesses to realize the expected synergies; that future business, regulatory and industry conditions will be within the parameters expectedby Nutrien, including with respect to prices, margins, demand, supply, product availability, supplier agreements, availability and cost of labor and interest, exchange and effective tax rates; the completion ofour expansion projects on schedule, as planned and on budget; assumptions with respect to global economic conditions and the accuracy of our market outlook expectations for 2018 and in the future; theadequacy of our cash generated from operations and our ability to access our credit facilities or capital markets for additional sources of financing; our ability to identify suitable candidates for acquisitionsand divestitures and negotiate acceptable terms; ability to maintain investment grade rating and achieve our performance targets; assumptions in respect of our ability to sell equity positions, including theability to find suitable buyers at expected prices and successfully complete such transactions in a timely manner; the receipt, on time, of all necessary permits, utilities and project approvals with respect toour expansion projects and that we will have the resources necessary to meet the projects’ approach.

Events or circumstances that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to: general global economic, market and businessconditions; the failure to successfully integrate and realize the expected synergies associated with the merger of Agrium and PotashCorp, including within the expected timeframe; weather conditions,including impacts from regional flooding and/or drought conditions; crop planted acreage, yield and prices; the supply and demand and price levels for our products; governmental and regulatoryrequirements and actions by governmental authorities, including changes in government policy, government ownership requirements, changes in environmental, tax and other laws or regulations and theinterpretation thereof; political risks, including civil unrest, actions by armed groups or conflict and malicious acts including terrorism; the occurrence of a major environmental or safety incident; innovationand security risks related to our systems; the inability to find suitable buyers for our equity positions and counterparty and transaction risk associated therewith; regional natural gas supply restrictions;counterparty and sovereign risk; delays in completion of turnarounds at our major facilities; gas supply interruptions at our Egyptian and Argentinian facilities; any significant impairment of the carrying valueof certain assets; risks related to reputational loss; certain complications that may arise in our mining processes; the ability to attract, engage and retain skilled employees and strikes or other forms of workstoppages; and other risk factors detailed from time to time in Agrium, PotashCorp and Nutrien reports filed with the Canadian securities regulators and the Securities and Exchange Commission in theUnited States, including those disclosed in Nutrien’s business acquisition report dated February 20, 2018, related to the merger of Agrium and PotashCorp. The purpose of our expected adjustedconsolidated EBITDA and EBITDA by segment guidance range is to assist readers in understanding our expected and targeted financial results, and this information may not be appropriate for otherpurposes.

Non-IFRS Financial Measures AdvisoryWe consider net earnings from continuing operations before finance costs, income tax (recovery) expense and depreciation and amortization ("EBITDA"), adjusted net earnings per share, Nutrien combined2017 historical information, adjusted EBITDA, potash adjusted EBITDA, cash cost of product manufactured and other measures deriving from such non-IFRS measures, all of which are non-IFRS financialmeasures, to provide useful information to both management and investors in measuring our financial performance and financial condition. Refer to the disclosure under the heading “Selected Non-IFRSFinancial Measures and Reconciliations and Supplemental Information” included in our news release dated November 5, 2018 announcing our third quarter 2018 results, as filed on SEDAR atwww.sedar.com and EDGAR at www.sec.gov under our corporate profile, for a reconciliation of these non-IFRS measures to the most directly comparable measures calculated in accordance with IFRSand for a further discussion of how these measures are calculated and their usefulness to users including management. Non-IFRS financial measures are not recognized measures under IFRS and ourmethod of calculation may not be comparable to that of other companies. These non-IFRS financial measures should not be considered as a substitute for, or superior to, measures of financial performanceprepared in accordance with IFRS. The purpose of our adjusted annual earnings per share and adjusted EBITDA guidance ranges is to assist readers in understanding our expected and targeted financialresults, and this information may not be appropriate for other purposes.

Nutrien disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements in this document as a result of new information or future events, except as may be required under applicableU.S. federal securities laws or applicable Canadian securities legislation.

2

November 27, 2018Note: All dollar amounts are stated in US dollars throughout the presentation unless otherwise noted.

Page 3: Investor Presentation - Nutrien · 2018. 11. 27. · Citi 2018 Basic Materials Conference. November 2018. ... and the expected synergies associated with the merger of Agrium and PotashCorp,

Presentation Outline 3

1 Nutrien Overview

2 Market Fundamentals and Performance

3

1

Capital Allocation

November 27, 2018

Page 4: Investor Presentation - Nutrien · 2018. 11. 27. · Citi 2018 Basic Materials Conference. November 2018. ... and the expected synergies associated with the merger of Agrium and PotashCorp,

Nutrien Has a Unique Global Footprint and Well Positioned Assets 4

LEGEND:

RETAIL

POTASH

NITROGEN

PHOSPHATE

ESN®

GRANULATION

LOVELAND PRODUCTS AND AFFILIATED FACILITIES

AGRICHEM

INVESTMENTS AND JV’S

OFFICES

South AmericaNorth American Integrated Footprint

Australia

>26MmtCombined sales tonnes of potash,

nitrogen, phosphate & sulfate1

$600MExpected annual

synergies by end of 2019

$1.72Annual dividend

per share2

~1,600Retail locations in 7 countries

$1.7B5% NCIB

complete in September 2018

November 27, 2018NOTE: European distribution and our ownership stakes in Sinofert and the MOPCO nitrogen facility are not included on these maps.

1 2017 sales volume excluding sales tonnes from Conda and North Bend.

2 Based on Nutrien quarterly dividend declared November 5, 2018. Future dividends subject to board discretion.

Page 5: Investor Presentation - Nutrien · 2018. 11. 27. · Citi 2018 Basic Materials Conference. November 2018. ... and the expected synergies associated with the merger of Agrium and PotashCorp,

~33%

~25%~7%

~35%

Diversified Portfolio Provides Stability and Multiple Avenues for Growth 5

Retail

Phosphate and Sulfate Nitrogen

Potash

2017 Adjusted Combined EBITDA Split1,2

1 Adjusted EBITDA is calculated as net (loss) earnings from continuing operations before finance costs, income tax (recovery) expense and depreciation and amortization, merger and related costs, and impairment losses. See “Selected Non-IFRS Financial Measures and Reconciliations and Supplemental Information” in Nutrien’s Q3 2018 news release.2 Reflects adjusted EBITDA, which is derived from historical financial information of PotashCorp and Agrium and does not include the effects of a) intersegment eliminations, b) the equity earnings and operating results of completed or anticipated divestitures in connection with the merger, or c) the impairment charge related to Phosphate, and merger-related costs. Determination of adjusted combined EBITDA required allocation of historical amounts on a basis consistent with how Nutrien will report financial information in the future. This information does not purport to project the future operating results of Nutrien, and is not necessarily indicative of what Nutrien’s results of operations would have been had the merger been completed on January 1, 2017.3 Based on the mid-point of Nutrien’s adjusted EBITDA guidance range as of November 5, 2018.

2018F Adjusted EBITDA GrowthUS$ Billions

Significant earnings growth expected across all business units in 2018

November 27, 2018

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2018FPotash2017 Phos & Other

Retail Nitrogen

~33-40%

3

Page 6: Investor Presentation - Nutrien · 2018. 11. 27. · Citi 2018 Basic Materials Conference. November 2018. ... and the expected synergies associated with the merger of Agrium and PotashCorp,

Cash Grower Margins 6

US Corn US Soybeans US Wheat US Cotton CAN Canola BRZ Soybeans

Cash Grower Margins1

Local Currency Margin/Acre

Prospective 2019 margins supportive of fall input demand; Driven by favorable US corn and Brazilian soybean margins

Source: USDA, Green Markets, CME Group, IMEA, Nutrien1 2016-2017 margins are based on average realized cash crop prices and estimated average fertilizer costs; 2018F margins are based on new crop 2018 futures prices less estimated basis and estimated average retail fertilizer prices; 2019F margins are based on new crop 2019 futures prices less estimated bases and estimated spot retail fertilizer prices; Brazilian grower margins are based on IMEA cost of production and price estimates for Mato Grosso.

November 27, 2018

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Page 7: Investor Presentation - Nutrien · 2018. 11. 27. · Citi 2018 Basic Materials Conference. November 2018. ... and the expected synergies associated with the merger of Agrium and PotashCorp,

Consistent growth in EBITDA margins achieved through Operational Excellence initiatives including proprietary product growth and footprint optimization

Retail: Long Term Growth of Margins and Earnings 7

$769$951 $986

$1,119 $1,033 $1,091 $1,1457.5%

8.3% 8.3%8.6% 8.5%

9.3%9.5%

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F

EBITDA Retail EBITDA Margin $1.2-1.3B

Retail EBITDA MarginPercent

Retail EBITDA Millions

Source: Nutrien November 27, 2018

Page 8: Investor Presentation - Nutrien · 2018. 11. 27. · Citi 2018 Basic Materials Conference. November 2018. ... and the expected synergies associated with the merger of Agrium and PotashCorp,

Nutrien Has Multiple Avenues to Deliver Strong Retail Earnings Growth 8

TUCK-IN/ROLL UP Continue to acquire farm centers across

North America and Australia

PROPRIETARY PRODUCTIncrease our proprietary

product offerings & sales

AG CREDIT FINANCE Expand the credit & finance business

earnings, retain & attract new customers

BRAZILIAN AG-RETAILBuild the retail business, leveraging our

proven strengths and experience

DIGITAL PLATFORMDeliver a world-class integrated platformthat supports growers ease of business

Grow

Build

Expand

Increase

Deliver

NutrienAg Solutions

Strategy

November 27, 2018

Page 9: Investor Presentation - Nutrien · 2018. 11. 27. · Citi 2018 Basic Materials Conference. November 2018. ... and the expected synergies associated with the merger of Agrium and PotashCorp,

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

Relatively Tight Potash Supply & Demand

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Demand*

Operational Capability

Global Potash S&DMillion Tonnes KCl

Global Utilization Rate1

Percent

Expect demand growth and capacity closures to offset capacity additions; operating rates expected to be at or above historical average

Source: CRU, Fertecon, IFA, Nutrien

.

9

November 27, 20181 Based on estimated operational capability. Forecast utilization rate range based on high and low demand forecast.

* Demand growth range based on 20 year CAGR (2002 to 2022) of 2.8 to 3.0 percent. 5-year forecast range of 2.3 to 3.3 percent.

Page 10: Investor Presentation - Nutrien · 2018. 11. 27. · Citi 2018 Basic Materials Conference. November 2018. ... and the expected synergies associated with the merger of Agrium and PotashCorp,

Potash: World’s Largest Producer; Lower-Cost Operations

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F

10.8Mmt12.2Mmt

12.5-13.0Mmt

~5Mmt

2016 2017 2018F ProductionCapability

~5 Mmt of incremental production capability in Saskatchewan that we can bring on with limited capital as global demand grows

Potash Production1

Million Tonnes KClCombined1Cash-related Cost of Goods Sold2

US$/Tonne

Source: Nutrien1 Amounts are the historical combined results of legacy PotashCorp and Agrium and are considered to be non-IFRS measures. See “Select Non-IFRS Financial Measures and Reconciliations and

Supplemental Information” in Nutrien’s Q3 2018 news release.2 Refers to total cost of goods sold less depreciation and amortization.3 Assuming full ramp up of Saskatchewan mines.

10

3

November 27, 2018

Page 11: Investor Presentation - Nutrien · 2018. 11. 27. · Citi 2018 Basic Materials Conference. November 2018. ... and the expected synergies associated with the merger of Agrium and PotashCorp,

Tightening Global Nitrogen Supply & Demand

Global Nitrogen S&DMillion Tonnes Nitrogen

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180 Demand Operational Capability

Relatively stable capacity utilization in 2019 followed by rapid tightening

Global Utilization Rate1

Percent

Source: CRU, Nutrien1 Based on estimated operational capability.* Demand growth based on 20 year CAGR (2002 to 2022) of 2 percent.

November 27, 2018

11

Page 12: Investor Presentation - Nutrien · 2018. 11. 27. · Citi 2018 Basic Materials Conference. November 2018. ... and the expected synergies associated with the merger of Agrium and PotashCorp,

Significant Opportunity to Grow the Company and Return Cash to Shareholders 12

Merger Synergies

$600 Millionannual run-rate expected to be

achieved by end of 2019

Crop Nutrient Leverage

~$650 Million increase in EBITDA from a

$25/mt improvement in prices

Retail Stability$50-$140 Million

expected Retail EBITDA growth per year

Equity Proceeds

~$5 Billionnet proceeds from divestitures

expected by end of 2018

Return Cash to Shareholders(~$2.6B expected cash returned in 2018)

Invest in Growth(Focus on growing Retail, opportunistic Wholesale expansion)

Protect Balance Sheet(Strong investment grade rating BBB/Baa2)

Capital Priorities

Expect to have $6-8 billion in cash to redeploy over the next 3 yearsSource: Nutrien

1 Through NCIB and dividends.November 27, 2018

Invest in Growth

(Focus on growing Retail, opportunistic Wholesale expansion)

Return Cash to Shareholders

(>$2.6B cash returned in 2018)1

Protect Balance Sheet

(Strong investment grade rating BBB/Baa2)

Page 13: Investor Presentation - Nutrien · 2018. 11. 27. · Citi 2018 Basic Materials Conference. November 2018. ... and the expected synergies associated with the merger of Agrium and PotashCorp,

Opportunity to Replicate Our Retail Model in Brazil 13

Brazil Profile and Priority Regions

GO

DF

MS

SP

MG

RS

PR

MT

Bold – PrimaryItalics - Secondary

Expand Retail network through a combination of M&A and greenfield builds

Acquire specialties platform, backward integrate Loveland products portfolio

Identify priority regions to replicate our proven Retail model

Brazil Retail Focus

BA

SE

87M HaOne of the largest countries in

the world by arable land and Ag production

3% CAGRExpansion in acreage in

production since 2000 across a diverse crop mix

35MmtN-P-K fertilizer

deliveries in 2018E

$10BCrop chemistry

expenditures, largest global market with greatest

growth outlook

Invest $1-$2B over the next 3-5 years to grow our Brazilian Retail business

Utilfertil

Agrichem

Source: Nutrien November 27, 2018

Page 14: Investor Presentation - Nutrien · 2018. 11. 27. · Citi 2018 Basic Materials Conference. November 2018. ... and the expected synergies associated with the merger of Agrium and PotashCorp,

Benefit from Equity Stake Sales and Expected Fourth-Quarter Seasonal Cash Inflow

NTR Net Debt/Adjusted EBITDARatio

Expect significant decline in net debt with equity sales and seasonal cash flow; maintained strong investment

grade rating

Projected net debt to EBITDA ratio below 2 times following equity sales

NTR Net Debt1

US$ Billions

1 Net debt is the total of short-term debt and long-term debt less cash and cash equivalents. This is a non-IFRS financial measure.2 Adjusted EBITDA represents a twelve-month rolling period. This is a non-IFRS financial measure. Refer to Selected Non-IFRS Financial Measures and Reconciliations and Supplemental Information in Nutrien’s Q3 2018 news release.3 Based on the mid-point of Nutrien’sannual adjusted EBITDA guidance range as of November 5, 2018.

14

Q3 2018 Q4 2018F0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Q3 2018 Q4 2018F0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

November 27, 2018

2 3

Source: Nutrien

Estimatedrange

Estimatedrange

Page 15: Investor Presentation - Nutrien · 2018. 11. 27. · Citi 2018 Basic Materials Conference. November 2018. ... and the expected synergies associated with the merger of Agrium and PotashCorp,

Nutrien Provides Unique Investment Opportunity in the Agriculture Sector 15

Leading position in both retail/distribution (stable & growing earnings base) and crop nutrient production

Unmatched upside to a recovery in crop nutrient markets -$25/mt improvement in nutrient prices expected to generate ~$650M in EBITDA

Clear line of sight on expected $600M in annual operating synergies; $401M run rate achieved as at September 30, 2018

Significant free cash flow expected to provide opportunity for meaningful shareholder returns: $2.6 billion returned in 2018

November 27, 2018

Page 16: Investor Presentation - Nutrien · 2018. 11. 27. · Citi 2018 Basic Materials Conference. November 2018. ... and the expected synergies associated with the merger of Agrium and PotashCorp,

Thank you!

INVESTOR PRESENTATION

For further information please visit Nutrien’s website at: www.nutrien.com

Follow Nutrien on:

twitter.com/nutrienltd

facebook.com/nutrienltd

linkedin.com/company/nutrien

November 27, 2018