British Journal of Addiction (1989) 84, 743-748

Is the Postwar Drinking Binge Ending?Cross-National Trends in Per Capita AlcoholConsumption

REGINALD G. SMART

Addiction Research Foundation, 33 Russell Street, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, M5S 2S1

SummaryExamination is made of per capita alcohol consumption data for 33 (largely developed) countries for 4 periodsof time—1951-1952, 1968-1970, 1974-1976 and 1983-1984. The trends indicate that there was a largeincrease in consumption between 1950-1952 and 1974-1976 in most countries. However, after 1974-1976,consumption stabilized or decreased in most. Declines appear to be more common in wine-drinking countriesand in those with very high levels of consumption. The tendency for countries to have a dominant beverage hasdeclined: the overall trend has been towards beer consumption and away from spirits consumption. Reasons forthe results include demographic changes and life style changes towards greater interest in health.

IntroductionFrom about 1950-1975, most developed countriesexperienced large increases in per capita alcoholconsumption in what might be called the postwardrinking binges. In many countries such as Canada,Hungary, Switzerland, New Zealand and the UnitedStates, consumption increased by about 50% be-tween 1950 and 1970. In a few countries such asHolland, Yugoslavia, Finland, Iceland and TheGerman Democratic Republic, consumption dou-bled. Only a few countries such as France and Cubashowed no increased alcohol consumption through-out the 195O's and 196O's (Brunn et al., 1975).Around 1975, however, the rate of increased con-sumption seemed to slow down in many places andactual declines in consumption were found in a few,e.g. Austria, Canada, Finland, and Norway, to nameonly some. The World Health Organization (1987)reported that beer consumption greatly increased inmost areas of the world including developingcountries in Africa, Asia, and South Americabetween 1960 and 1981. However, data for later

periods have not been reported. This paper isconcerned with the trends in alcohol consumptionand beverage choice in 33 countries between about1950 and about 1985. These countries were thoseoriginally contributing data to the World AlcoholProject (Brunn et al, 1975). Data for the period1983 to 1985 have just become available, and it ispossible to compare them with earlier data.

The period 1975-1985 is a particularly interest-ing one. During this period, the OPEC oil crisisdeveloped and created inflation and price increases.In many countries disposable income dropped,unemployment increased, and in general, affluencedecreased. People probably had less money to spendon expensive, recreational pursuits like drinking.However, these economic changes also coincidedwith changes in attitudes about healthy lifestyles; atleast in North America (Smart, 1987; Rootman etal., 1988), people were exercising more and payingmore attention to nutrition and to avoiding un-healthy foods such as butter and beef. If alcoholconsumption drops or even stabilizes, reductions in

743

744 Reginald G. Smart

alcohol-related problems are likely, and in somecountries they have been much larger than expected(Kendell, 1984; Smart & Mann, 1987).

MethodThe data for 1950-1976 were drawn from the WorldAlcohol Project. The basic approach has been toobtain and analyse data on alcohol from interna-tional sources. The data used refers to the pro-duction and importation of alcoholic beverages andthe stocks on hand in each year. Data was obtainedfrom a variety of reports including the Momento deL'Office Internationale de la Vigne et du Vin, theFAO Production Yearbook and Trade Yearbook,the Dutch Distillers Reports, and a variety of UNpublications on trade. These data were supple-mented by material sought from countries wherereporting was incomplete. Despite the efforts to getcomplete data from 176 countries, data from only 33was available for 1950-1952 and 1968-1970 for thereport by Brunn et al (1975). These data have beensupplemented by data from 1974-1976 from theWorld Alcohol Project and for 1983-1985 from theDutch Distillers reports.

The 33 countries are mainly developed countriesand most are in Europe or North America and hencethe data and conclusions apply to developed coun-tries. Only two developing countries (Cuba andPeru) are included, although there is a wide range ofcountries in terms of economic health and income.Data on alcohol consumption in most developingcountries is available only for the 197O's and later;hence, they could not be included here.

Countries were divided into those that were winecountries (seven), beer countries (12), and spiritcountries (four) based upon their status in1950-1952.

In order to examine the trends in alcoholconsumption and the contribution of each beveragetype (beer, wine, and spirits) over a period of 30years, I had to start with the 33 countries used byBrunn et al (1975). There are, of course, somelimitations in the data. Early data (1950-1952) existfor only 33 countries although good data areavailable for many more countries starting in the197O's. In addition, illicit or home production ofalcohol is not included. In many countries, e.g.North America, this is a trivial part of the totalconsumption, but in others, e.g. Norway, homeproduction may be 10-15% of the total. There areother problems with the data in that most so-calledconsumption figures are really figures expressing

amounts produced and imported (less those ex-ported). The figures also do not include illegalproduction or smuggled alcoholic beverages, orthose bought or consumed by people travelling inother countries. In general, our figures are for'apparent consumption' not real or observed alcoholconsumption. Hopefully, these problems do notobscure the major findings, and their contribution isprobably consistent over the years studied.

ResultsTrends in ConsumptionTable 1 shows the total per capita consumption infour periods of time the average for 1950-1952,1968-1970, 1974-1976 and 1983-1985 (the mostrecent available). Overall, mean consumption in-creased from 4.7 litres in 1950-1952 to 6.9 litres in1968-1970 and 8.4 litres in 1974-1976; but by1983-1985, it had decreased slightly to 8.1 litres.This paper presents the data and argues fromdescriptive rather than statistical analysis. In manycountries, the data from 1974-1976 to 1983-1985are not appropriate for trend analysis or regressionbecause of the small number of years and the auto-correlation in the data. The presentation follows thesame format as in Bruun et al (1975).

It can be seen that in 31 of 33 countries alcoholconsumption apparently increased between1950-1952 and 1968-1970. Only in France andCuba was there no increase. From 1968-1970 to1974-1976, only three countries (Italy, Portugaland Yugoslavia) showed decreases in consumptionand 28 showed increases. However, the situationbegan to change some time around the mid- to late-197O's. In the period between 1974-1976 and1983-1985, only 11 of 31 countries showed in-creased alcohol consumption, two were the same,and the remaining 18 showed declines. Between1968-1970 and 1974-1976, the average increase inconsumption was about 27%; but between1974-1976 and 1983-1985, there was an averagedecline of 3.6%. This is the first time since 1950 thata majority of countries showed stable or decliningalcohol consumption. The 11 showing increases areRumania, Switzerland, Belgium, Denmark, Ireland,Luxembourg, United States, German DemocraticRepublic, Iceland, Turkey and Yugoslavia.

Declines and increases in consumption varygreatly from one country to another. All of thecountries showing recent increases in consumptionare in Europe, except for the United States andIceland. Those showing stability or declines are

Cross-National Trends in Per Capita Alcohol Consumption 745

Table 1. Total Per Capita Alcohol Consumption in Four Time Periods of 33 Countries

Status in 1950-1952

Wine CountriesFranceHungaryItalyPortugalRumaniaSpainSwitzerland

Beer CountriesAustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzechoslovakiaDenmarkGermany, Fed. Rep.IrelandLuxembourgNew ZealandUnited KingdomU.S.A.

Spirit CountriesCubaCyprusFinlandGermany, Dem. Rep.IcelandIsraelNetherlandsNorwayPeruPolandSouth AfricaSwedenTurkeyYugoslavia

Mean Consumption(litres absolute alcohol)

Total per capita consumption(litres1

1950-52

17.64.89.4

12.9*4.7*8.16.6*

6.4*5.46.64.94.9*4.03.63.46.85.6*4.95.0

2.03.1*2.21.91.1*1.4*1.92.11.3*3.11.84.00.3*2.7*

4.7

of absolute2

1968-70

16.18.9

13.7.15.26.3

11.910.3

8.210.88.46.48.27.0

10.14.49.47.36.26.0

1.83.24.46.02.82.15.33.52.65.53.05.80.47.8

6.9

alcohol)3

1974-76

16.712.313.414.37.4

13.810.8

9.711.39.98.79.88.8

12.25.7

13.09.48.27.3

2.0—6.48.23.02.98.74.23.87.05.36.10.97.6

8.4

41983-85

13.611.512.013.17.7**

12.011.1

9.310.010.68.09.4

10.010.86.2

13.19.16.98.0

—5.76.4

10.34.11.0**8.74.01.56.64.45.21.17.8

8.1

% change:2 to 3

+ 3.7+ 38.2- 2.1- 6.7+ 17.5+ 16.0+ 4.9

+ 18.3+ 4.6+ 17.9+ 35.9+ 20.1+ 25.7+ 10.1+ 29.5+ 38.3+ 28.8+ 32.3+ 21.7

——

+ 45.5+ 3.67+ 7.1+ 33.3+ 64.2+ 20.0+ 46.2+ 27.2+ 76.7+ 5.2+ 117.5- 2.7

+ 26.6

time3 to 4

-18.6- 6.5-10.4- 8.4+ 3.9-13.0+ 2.7

- 4.1-11.5+ 7.0- 8.0- 4.1+ 13.6-11.5+ 8.8+ 0.7- 3.2-15.6+ 9.5

——0

+ 25.6+ 36.6-65.6

0- 4.7-60.5- 5.7-17.0-15.0+ 26.5+ 2.6

- 3.6

* These are estimates.** 1983 figure only.

more geographically spread out and include coun-tries in North America, South America, Oceania,and South Africa.

There is a slight tendency for declines to be morecommon in wine countries than others. Of sevenwine countries, five showed recent declines; butonly seven of 12 beer-drinking countries did and sixof 12 spirits-drinking countries. This may bemediated by other factors. For example, winecountries typically have higher levels of consump-

tion than do beer or spirits countries. It can be seenthat reductions are more common among countrieswith high levels of consumption. For example, six ofthe seven countries with a per capita consumptionrate of 12 or more litres of absolute alcohol in1974-1976, showed declining consumption by1983-1985. However, of 13 countries with 7 to 11.9per capita consumption in 1974-1976, only sixshowed declines by 1983-1985.

The mean change in consumption for the wine-

746 Reginald G. Smart

growing countries was —7.1% from 1974-1976 to1983-1985, but it was —6.4% in spirits countriesand only —1.5% in beer countries. It appears thatpeople in wine- and spirits-drinking countriesdecreased their drinking far more than did those inbeer countries.

The countries with the largest recent declines inalcohol consumption are Israel, Peru, France andSouth Africa. Those with the largest recent in-creases are Iceland, German Democratic Republic,Turkey and Denmark. Very little seems tounite these groups in terms of level of alcoholconsumption, dominant beverage, economics, orgeography.

Trends in Beverage PreferencesTable 2 shows the contribution of each beveragetype to alcohol consumption in 1950-1952 and 1980or 1981. Most countries have a dominant beveragewhich represents a large part of the total consump-tion. However, even this has been changing. In1950-1952,18 of 33 countries had a beverage whichcounted for 60% or more of the consumption, but by1980, only five did. In 1980, there is a tendency forconsumption to be spread more evenly across beer,wine, and spirits than was the case in 1950-1952.This is an extension of the homogenization whichhas been found by Brunn et al (1975) and others forthe period from 1950-1970.

The preferred beverage changed in some coun-tries during the 30-year period being examined. Ofseven wine-dominated countries in 1950-1952, allbut one remained so 30 years later in 1981. Hungarychanged from a wine-drinking to a spirits-drinkingcountry. Also, all but one of the 12 beer-drinkingcountries remained so through the 30-year period.However, Luxembourg became a spirits-drinkingcountry. Surprisingly, eight of 14 spirits-dominatedcountries changed; all but one of them changed tobeer domination by 1980, Clearly the trend since1950 has been away from spirits and towards greaterbeer consumption. This general trend can be seen inthat wine represented 27.1% of all consumption inthe 33 countries in 1950-1952 and 27,5% in 1980,i.e, not much change. Spirits was 36,1% of totalconsumption in 1950-1952 but 34,3% in 1980,However, beer represented 36,8% of consumptionin 1950-1952 and 38,2% in 1980, The changes aresmall in terms of overall shares in consumption butconsistent with the trend towards beer on a country-by-country level.

DiscussionThe results indicate that significant trends inalcohol consumption have occurred over the past 30years, at least in those 33 countries for which wehave the best data. It should be recalled that 31 ofthe 33 countries are developed countries, and hencethe results should be taken to apply to them and notdeveloping countries. Unfortunately, we know rela-tively little about 30-year trends in developingcountries, except for Cuba and Peru, The maintrends are:

(i) There was a large overall increase in per capitaalcohol consumption between 1950-1952 and1974-1976, Consumption went from about 4,7 litresper year in 1950-1952 to 8,4 litres in 1974-1976,However, by 1983-1985 there was a small reductionto 8,1 litres which indicates a stabilization as muchas a decline in consumption,

(ii) Although almost all countries showed in-creased consumption up to 1974-1976, most re-cently most countries showed declines and a fewessentially a plateau. Countries with increasingconsumption are now in the minority. Countrieswith recent increases in consumption appear to bemainly in Europe.

(iii) Declines in consumption appear to be greateramong countries which had high levels of consump-tion (i,e, 12 or more litres per capita) and perhaps inwine-drinking countries,

(iv) Declines in overall consumption are greatestin wine- and spirits-dominated countries and less inthose which are beer dominated,

(v) The past tendency for countries to have adominant beverage has greatly declined and the lesspopular beverages in the 195O's have become morepopular almost everywhere.

(vi) Beer-dominated and wine-dominated coun-tries in 1950 tended to remain so over the 30 yearsexamined. However, a majority of countries thatwere spirits dominated in the 195O's ceased to be soand in most of these, beer became the most popularbeverage,

(vii) Overall, beer accounts for slightly more ofthe total consumption and spirits for slightly less in1980-1981 than in 1950-1952, Wine consumptionremains about the same.

There are a number of interesting trends in these33 countries which deserve further comment andresearch. It is interesting that the overall changes inalcohol consumption are quite large over the 30-year period. Total consumption doubled between1950-1952 and 1974-1976; however, there has been

Cross-National Trends in Per Capita Alcohol Consumption 747

Table 2. Beverage Preferences in 1950-52 and in 1980 or 1981

Status in 1950-52

Wine CountriesFranceHungaryItalyPortugalRumaniaSpainSwitzerland

Beer CountriesAustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzechoslovakiaDenmarkGermany, Fed. Rep.IrelandLuxembourgNew ZealandUnited KingdomU.S.A.

Spirit CountriesCubaCyprusFinlandGermany, Dem. Rep.IcelandIsraelNetherlandsNorwayPeruPolandSouth AfricaSwedenTurkeyYugoslavia

Wine

79.178.590.895.8*60.8*69.8*51.7*

13.432.711.04.0

10.39.8

20.03.5

42.84.22.19.8

12.243.7

6.63.6

15.916.43.87.2

10.24.6

29.74.5

27.58.9

Consumption of dominant beverageType as

1950-52Beer

5.16.01.70.46.01.8

29.6

73.8*43.578.461.763.1*78.350.275.043.175.3*87.151.7

34.613.033.947.037.925.328.241.624.024.221.431.817.38.3

% of total

Spirits

15.815.57.53.8

33.228.418.6

12.723.810.634.326.611.929.821.514.120.510.838.5

53.243.3*59.549.546.1*58.3*68.151.265.8*71.24.9

63.755.2*2.9*

consumption1981

Wine

65.830.177.774.143.559.447.2

25.829.421.813.212.922.422.1

8.527.624.016.014.6

8.426.516.315.522.925.619.913.65.1

26.919.024.219.143.8

or 1980*Beer

13.130.6

7.318.927.617.432.4

64.155.552.248.452.257.854.557.020.553.959.950.0

49.644.837.844.710.020.850.047.457.114.848.031.025.933.4

Spirits

21.138.515.07.0

28.9*23.220.4*

10.1*15.126.038.434.919.823.434.5*51.922.124.135.4

42.0*28.7*45.939.867.153.628.139.037.8*58.333.044.852.0*22.8

* These are estimates.

almost no overall change since that time. There iseven evidence of a small decline. More countrieshave declining than increasing alcohol consump-tion.

There are many possible explanations for thesedeclines, e.g. decreases in real incomes and increasesin employment. Demographic changes such as theaging of population may account for part of thedecreased consumption. As people age, they tend todrink less, at least in North America (Smart &Adlaf, 1988; Cahalan, Cisin & Crossley, 1969).There may also be many countries such as Canadawhere more general changes in attitudes are taking

place. These changing attitudes and lifestyles areindicated by the increased interest in fitness andhealthy lifestyles, more sports participation, reducedlevels of smoking, and the like (Rootman et al.,1988). Other changes that have occurred are ineating and other drinking habits. In Canada, there isa clear trend towards the consumption of less beefand butter and more chicken, fish, and margarine(Smart, 1987). Consumption of whole milk hasdeclined and the consumption of low calorie andunsweetened beverages has greatly increased. Itwould be of interest to investigate these changes inhealthy behaviours in other countries and to see

748 Reginald G. Smart

whether they are as important as the economicchanges.

The data suggest that alcohol consumption mayhave some sort of natural limit at the country level.Most countries (except France), which achieve percapita consumption of 12-14 litres of absolutealcohol per person, show a decline or stabilization inconsumption within a few years. Perhaps at thatlevel, social problems from alcohol become so greatthat anti-alcohol forces are mobilized. Such forcesmight be improved prevention or treatment pro-grams by governments, higher taxes and prices, or avariety of personal controls about which we knowvery little. Of course, the acceptable level ofconsumption in many countries, e.g. Scandinavia, ismuch lower than 12 litres. Whatever the acceptablelevels are, we should know more about them.

Another interesting phenomenon is the overalltrend towards greater beer consumption. Homogen-ization in beverage preferences is affecting spiritsconsumption which is declining and beer which isincreasing. This trend is of small size overall, but itappears in many countries. At present, we areuncertain what the reason might be for such awidespread shift in drinking habits from spirits tobeer. Is it due to the improved marketing andadvertising of beer, or to the wider variety ofproducts they offer, i.e. 'low cal beer', 'light beer','super light' etc? It may be part of the trend towardshealthier lifestyles in that beer is the weakestsolution of alcohol which is customarily drunk.However, the trend towards more beer consumptionmay relate to the increasing youthfulness of thedrinking population in some countries.

It is difficult to speculate about the future forglobal consumption and the results shown hereapply to only a few developed countries for whichwe have data. The current plateau is likely related todemographic or economic events which may betemporary or to long-term, gradual changes. Is the

postwar drinking binge ending? It seems to be inmany developed countries, although there is still along way to go in most. However, reductions inalcohol-related problems should occur in manycountries as a result of the reductions in alcoholconsumption.

DisclaimerThe views expressed in this paper are those of theauthor and do not necessarily reflect those of theAddiction Research Foundation.

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