Issue 23 – June 2020 Group Strategy, Policy Coordination and Relations

JOBURG DEMOGRAPHICS AND KEY SOCIO ECONOMIC INDICATORS

For further informationPlease contact:

Mpho NemavundeEmail: MphoNema@joburg.org.za

Or

Khetho LomahozaEmail: KhethoL@Joburg.org.za

Image: Themarketresearch.com

Contents Population dynamics

Migration

Socio economic indicators

GDP (2010 prices): National vs. City of Johannesburg

Level of Education

Unemployment rate, City of Johannesburg

Human Development Index (HDI): CoJ vs. Regions

Gini coefficient: CoJ vs. Regions

Joburg residents living below the lower poverty line, 2019

HIV+ estimates by Region, 2019

Summary

Data was sourced from IHS Markit for all indicators unless specified otherwise

POPULATION DYNAMICS

Population: Quick facts• The latest UN world population data shows that world population has reached 7.7 billion, with the world population growth

rate currently at 1.05%

• According to the 2019 Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) mid year population estimates, South Africa’s population is estimatedto be 58.8 million

• Gauteng comprises the largest share of the South African population, with approximately 15.2 million people (25.8%) living inthe province. The Northern Cape has only 1.26 million (2.2%) people living in the province, making it the smallest province bypopulation size

• In 2019, there were an estimated 5.4 million people living in the City of Johannesburg

• The population in the City of Johannesburg increased by 2.35% between 2018 and 2019

• The city’s population represents 9.24% of total population in South Africa

• In 2019, the female population accounted for 49.94% and male population accounted for 50.06% of total city’s population

• The proportion of youth population (15 to 34 years) as a percentage to the City’s total population has shown a downwardtrend in the last 3 years, declining by 1.85% from 38.6% in 2016 to 36.75% in 2019 Image: daily maverick

POPULATION DYNAMICS

• In 2019, 80% of the Joburg population comprised Africans followed by the White population (10%).

• The Coloured and Asian population each accounted for 5% of total population in the city.

Image: COGTA

80%

10%

5%5%

Population by race: City of Johannesburg, 2019

African

White

Coloured

Asian

POPULATION DYNAMICS

• Region D has the highest population, accounting for 23% of the total population in the City of Johannesburg while Region B has the least number of people living there (7% of total city population)

• Region A has shown the highest population growth rate compared to other regions in 2019 at 3.28%Image: www.Joburg.org.za

879 462, 16%

372 485, 7%

880 873, 16%

1 219 886, 23%

559 958, 10%

716 282, 13%

800 018, 15%

Population by CoJ Region, 2019

Region A: Midrand /Diepsloot

Region B: Randburg /Rosebank

Region C: Roodepoort

Region D: Soweto

Region E: Sandton /Alexandra

Region F: Inner City /Southern Joburg

Region G: Deep South /Ennerdale / Orange Farm

CASES OF COVID-19 IN THE POPULATION

• Over 100 days since the coronavirus hit South Africa, the country has had to come to terms with a very different reality. Since the easing of Covid-19 lockdown restrictions on 1 June 2020, the rates of new infections have been increasing rapidly

• As of 22 June 2020, there were 22 341 reported cases of coronavirus in Gauteng and 122 deaths

• Johannesburg has the highest number of coronavirus cases in the province (11 079)

• Region F and Region D are the worst affected regions in the city with 2 679 and 1 944 cases respectively

• Out of the 11 079 cases, 3 087 have recoveredSource: Gauteng Provincial Government

MIGRATION

• According to the World Migration Report, in 2019 there were an estimated 272 million international migrants in the world,which accounted for 3.5% of the global population.

• The Census data estimates that there were 2.2 million foreign-born individuals living in South Africa in 2011. StatsSA Mid-year Population Estimates for 2018 indicate that between 2011 and 2016 a net total of 883 364 international migrantsentered South Africa. If accurate this might take the South African immigrant population to about 3 million.

• In 2011, there were approximately 507 727 foreign migrants residing in the city. At the time, the population inJohannesburg was estimated to be at around 3.9 million people (Census 2011). This means that only 13.1% of the city’spopulation in 2011 was foreign-born.

• The majority of foreign migrants in the city (78%) were born in the Southern African Development Community (SADC)countries (Census 2011). Most foreign migrants are between the ages 31-45, followed by the 15-25 age cohort.

• It is pertinent to note however, that contrary to the popular narrative, internal migrants from South African provinces makeup the bulk of Johannesburg’s population expansion. According to the most recent QoL V 2017/18 survey, the numbers arebroken down as follows: just over half (58%) of the population were born in Gauteng, 10% have migrated to the city fromother countries and nearly a third of the people in the city have come to Johannesburg from other parts of South Africa.

Image: freevector.com

MIGRATION TRENDS

Source: GSPCR Migration Patterns and Urbanization in CoJ

MIGRATION

Source: 2017/18 QoL V

MIGRANTS CONTRIBUTION IN ENTREPRENEURIAL ACTIVITIES

• Migrant entrepreneurs in the City ofJoburg are mostly in retail or servicerather than in production.

• According to the 2017/18 Quality of Life(QoL) V findings, within Johannesburginternational migrants are twice aslikely to report owning a business thanrespondents born in South Africa. Aquarter (25%) of internationalimmigrants reported owning abusiness.

• Moreover more than a third (34%) ofinternational migrants’ businesses arein the formal sector, meaning thatthese businesses are registered andcontribute either income tax or VAT

SOCIO ECONOMICS INDICATORS

• The city’s GDP growth rates have mirrored the downward trend of national GDP.• Between 2011 and 2019, the highest GDP growth rate in the city was recorded in 2013 (2.72%). Since then GDP growth

rates declined substantially with the city only recording a meagre 0.86% in 2019• In 2019, the city’s real GDP grew 0.7% faster than the national real GDP which was only 0.15%

Image: financialexpress.com

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

GDP (2010 prices): National vs. City of Johannesburg

National growth rate City of Johannesburg growth rate

SOCIO ECONOMIC INDICATORS

• The number of people in the city with only a matric qualification has been increasing over the past 5 years, increasing from 1.16 million to 1.34 million people in 2015 and 2019 respectively

• The number of people with matric and bachelors degrees has also been increasing over time, rising by 4.81% from 2018 to 2019

Image:UTEP connect

1 162 0771 206 829 1 247 228

1 296 504 1 340 130

246 820 250 269 261 508 272 908 286 044

0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

1 400 000

1 600 000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Level of Education

Matric only Matric & Bachelors degree Linear (Matric only)

SOCIO ECONOMIC INDICATORS

• There has been an upward trend in the unemployment rate in the City of Joburg between 2018 and 2019 (illustrated by the red line in the diagram above). The unemployment rate increased from 28.8% in the first quarter of 2018 to 32.7% in the first quarter of 2020

Image: IOLData source: StastsSA Quarterly Labor Force Survey (QLFS), various periods

28.828.5

29.2 29.0

29.8

30.7

32.432.7 32.7

25.0

26.0

27.0

28.0

29.0

30.0

31.0

32.0

33.0

34.0

Q1_ 2018 Q2_ 2018 Q3_ 2018 Q4_ 2018 Q1_ 2019 Q2_ 2019 Q3_ 2019 Q4_ 2019 Q1_ 2020

Unemployment rate %, City of Johannesburg

SOCIO ECONOMIC INDICATORS

• In 2019, the HDI in the City of Johannesburg was at 0.72 compared to 0.67 in 2009 indicating that there has been a slight improvement in the level of human development in the city over the past 10 years.

• At 0.67 and 0.62 respectively, Region D and Region G are the only 2 regions in the city whose HDI is below that of the City of Johannesburg (0.72).

• Region B has the highest HDI (0.81) across all regionsImage:constructionreviewonline.com

0.72 0.73

0.810.75

0.67

0.77 0.74

0.62

JHB City ofJohannesburg

Region A:Midrand /Diepsloot

Region B:Randburg /Rosebank

Region C:Roodepoort

Region D:Soweto

Region E:Sandton /Alexandra

Region F: InnerCity / Southern

Joburg

Region G: DeepSouth /

Ennerdale /Orange Farm

2019 HDI: CoJ vs. Regions

The HDI is an index that combines three basic dimensions of human development: A long and healthy life, knowledge, and a decent standard of living.

A maximum value of 1 indicates a very high level of human development, while the minimum value of 0 indicates no human development.

SOCIO ECONOMIC INDICATORS

• There has not been significant improvement in the inequality levels in the city in the past 10 years. This is illustrated by the Gini coefficient which is currently at 0.62 relative to what it was in 2009 (0.62)

• At 0.63, region A is the only region out of the 7 regions that has a Gini coefficient higher, and therefore more unequal, than that of the City of Johannesburg

• Region B which has a Gini coefficient of 0.55 is the most equal region compared to other regions in the City of Johannesburg Image: IOL

0.62

0.63

0.55

0.61

0.59

0.61

0.59 0.59

JHB City ofJohannesburg

Region A:Midrand /Diepsloot

Region B:Randburg /Rosebank

Region C:Roodepoort

Region D:Soweto

Region E:Sandton /Alexandra

Region F: InnerCity / Southern

Joburg

Region G: DeepSouth /

Ennerdale /Orange Farm

2019 Gini coefficient: CoJ vs. Regions

The Gini coefficient is a summary statistic of income inequality. It varies from 0 to 1. If the Gini co-efficient is equal to zero, income is distributed in a perfectly equal manner, in other words there is no variance between the high and low income earners within the population. In contrast, if the Gini co-efficient equals 1, income is completely inequitable

SOCIO ECONOMIC INDICATORS

• In 2019, the City of Joburg had 1.76 million people living below the lower poverty line, an increase of 3.7% from 2018

• Region B had the least number of people living below the lower poverty line (55 717)

• Region D had the lowest growth (2.55%) but also the highest number of people living below the lower poverty line.

Image: Daily maverick

1 760 053

267 488

55 717

239 897

501 813

129 808190 804

374 527

3.70%

3.93%

4.45%4.31%

2.55%

3.98%

4.72%

3.96%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%

4.50%

5.00%

0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

1 400 000

1 600 000

1 800 000

2 000 000

JHB City ofJohannesburg

Region A:Midrand /Diepsloot

Region B:Randburg /Rosebank

Region C:Roodepoort

Region D:Soweto

Region E:Sandton /Alexandra

Region F:Inner City /Southern

Joburg

Region G:Deep South /Ennerdale /

Orange Farm

Joburg residents living below the lower poverty line (StatsSA defined), 2019

SOCIO ECONOMIC INDICATORS

• The number of people living with HIV in the city reached 783 040 in 2019, from just 549 989 in 2009.• Region D has the highest percentage of its population living with HIV, accounting for 17.16%, followed by Region A (15.4%)

and Region F (14.65%).• The number of AIDS related deaths reported in the City of Johannesburg has declined by 4.47% from 11,077 in 2018 to

10,582 in 2019 Image: institute of tropical medicine

15.40%

9.58%

13.19%

17.16%

13.32%

14.65%

13.35%

HIV+ estimates by Region

Region A: Midrand / Diepsloot

Region B: Randburg / Rosebank

Region C: Roodepoort

Region D: Soweto

Region E: Sandton / Alexandra

Region F: Inner City / Southern Joburg

Region G: Deep South / Ennerdale / OrangeFarm

SUMMARY

The analysis demonstrated the latest trends in demographics and socio economic indicators of the City of Johannesburg. The key findings are summarised below:

- CoJ GDP growth rateGDP growth rates have been low in the past 8 years with the city only recording a meagre 0.86% GDP growth in 2019

- CoJ Gini coefficientJohannesburg is still regarded as an unequal city. This is illustrated by the Gini coefficient which is currently at 0.62

- CoJ HDIHDI in the City of Johannesburg is relatively high (0.72) and has improved over the past 10 years.

- Number of CoJ population with Matric or aboveThe number of people with matric and bachelors degrees has been increasing over time. In 2019, 286 044 of Joburg residents had post matric degrees

- % CoJ unemployment rateThe unemployment rate has been rising and as of the first quarter of 2020 was 32.7%

SUMMARY

- % CoJ population living below the poverty line32.42% of the Joburg population were living below the lower poverty line in 2019. This has increased over time.

- CoJ population and health In 2019, 14.42% of the CoJ population were living with HIV. This has been increasing over time. As of 22 June 2020, 11 079 confirmed cases of coronavirus with 3 087 recoveries were reported in Johannesburg.

- Regions A-G population as % of CoJ total

- Foreign migrant population as % of CoJ total (2011)Only 13.1% of the city’s population in 2011 were foreign-born

Region A: Midrand / Diepsloot 16.20%

Region B: Randburg / Rosebank 6.86%

Region C: Roodepoort 16.23%

Region D: Soweto 22.47%

Region E: Sandton / Alexandra 10.31%

Region F: Inner City / Southern Joburg 13.19%

Region G: Deep South / Ennerdale / Orange Farm

14.74%