Issues Surrounding The Separation of Quebec

• What Will Happen to R.O.C.?• Labrador Border• Allocation of Assets & Liabilities

e.g., proportion of national debt; valuation date of assets

• Partition of Quebec Itself- esp. aboriginal people

• Who Will Negotiate for Canadaif PM is from Quebec?

• Free-trade - Quebec-Canada; Quebec-USA

• Ill-will• “Once things start to unravel, they’ll

move very quickly in ways we cannot foresee. No one can predict the outcome.” (Gordon Richie)

The Rise of a New Force in Quebec: Action Democratique du Quebec

• Elections of Realignment (e.g. 1936, 1970) a “third party” moves above 20% of

votes

• Formation of the ADQdissident Liberals in midst of

Charlottetown negotiations in 1992

• Distribution of Voter Support in Quebec

Elections Polls

1994 1998 2001 2002

Parti Quebecois 44 44 34 25

Liberals 42 45 40 30

ADQ 7 12 18 40

Causes of theRise of the ADQ

• Leadership• Scandal• Strategic Impasse• Desire for Political Stability• Belief that The Current Model of

Government in Quebec is Not Sustainable

What Would an ADQ Victory Mean to Canada?

• Quebec will be more involved in alliances with other provincial governments

• Fading of the BQ from the federal political scene

• Intergenerational Conflict- Leading cadre of ADQ is

in early 30s. They want the baby boom generation to “pay its fair share”.

- ADQ is strongest among age 18-28 year olds, but is 1st or 2nd in every age group.