Joe Lechtanski's Gun Facts vs. Emotion Article

7/29/2019 Joe Lechtanski's Gun Facts vs. Emotion Article

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Guns: Facts vs. Emotions

1) There is a zero or slight negative statistical correlation between gun ownership and homicide rates. Ifthere was a positive correlation between gun ownership and gun violence and/or homicide rates,

Wyoming, Idaho, North Dakota & South Dakota (all with household gun ownership rates in excess of50%) would be the most dangerous places in the United States to live and Illinois, Maryland and

California (all with household gun ownership rates less than 22%) would be the safest places to live.Yet here is how they rank in terms of gun homicides per 100,000 population (FBI Uniform crime

statistics 2010):

Maryland 6.95 2nd most dangerous state

California 4.82 4th most dangerous state

Illinois 4.59 7th most dangerous state

Idaho 1.22 41st (one of top ten safest states)

South Dakota 0.74 44th (one of top ten safest states)

North Dakota 0.71 46th (one of top ten safest states)

Wyoming 0.59 47th (one of top ten safest states)

There are also dozens of similar examples internationally such as Russia where the rate of gunownership is one-sixth the rate of US gun ownership (15 per 100 people vs. 88.8 per 100 population

in the US) but the per capita homicide rate is nearly 2.5X that of the United States (3.7/100,000 USvs. 10.2/100,000 Russia). Conversely, Switzerland, which has a gun ownership rate of 45.7 guns per

100 people (and nearly a 100% gun per home ratio) has one of the lowest homicide rates in the worldat .7 homicides per 100,000 population. Clearly, there is no statistical correlation between gun

ownership and violent homicides, either at the US State or international country level.

2) People also like to point to places like England as an example of how strict gun laws drive downmurder rates. England passed one of the strictest gun control measures in the western world in 1997

(Firearms (Amendment) (No. 2) Act 1997) that made the ownership of almost all pistols and semi-automatic rifles illegal. Since the passage of that law, crimes involving fire arms increased from

13,874 in 1998 to 21,521 in 2006, a 55% increase. A 2006 analysis by the British Journal ofCriminology found No measurable effect on crime from the 1997 Firearms act. The fact is that

even though gun ownership laws in the United Kingdom were very similar to the US gun ownershiplaws prior to the 1997 firearms act, the homicide rate in England was very low prior to the gun

control legislation act of 1997 and remained at essentially the same low level after the legislation waspassed (no meaningful change.). To point to the low gun ownership level in the UK ( 6.2 guns per

hundred population) as a cause and effect relationship for their low homicide rate (1.2 per 100,000population) requires ignoring the fact that it had no measurable impact on homicide rates and also

must ignore the following contradictory statistics:

a. In addition to Switzerland (cited above), Norway, with a gun ownership rate 5X that ofEngland (31.3/100 vs. 6.2/100) has a homicide rate half that of the UK (.6/100,000 vs.1.2/100,000) and France, with a gun ownership rate of 31.2/100, also has a lower homiciderate than the UK (1.1 per 100,000).

b. The Netherlands, Egypt, Bulgaria, The Bahamas, Taiwan, Malaysia and others all have gunownership rates equal to or less than that of the UK (in many cases less than 1 gun per

hundred population) yet all have homicide rates greater than that of the UK and in some case10X greater. If there were a direct causal relationship between guns and homicide rates, these

disparities/outright contradictions would not exist.


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c. If a gun/homicide rate correlation did exist then the United States with a gun ownership rateof 88.8 guns per hundred population (14.3 times greater than the UK ownership rate), would

have a homicide rate of 17.2 per 100,000 population instead of actual rate of 4.2 per 100,000(only 3.5 times greater than the UK rate of 1.2 per100, 000).

d. There also does not appear to be any strong correlation between gun ownership and thepercent of homicides committed with firearms.

i. In the US, with a gun population of 88.8 guns per 100 people, guns are used in 58% ofall homicides.

ii. In Italy, the gun ownership rate is only 11.9 per 100 people but guns are used in 79%of all homicides

iii. In Norway where the gun ownership rate is 31.3 per 100 people, the guns are usedonly in only 7% of all homicides

3) What does appear to drive total homicide rates and gun homicide rates (irrespective of gun ownershiprates) is widespread poverty, unemployment and/or the presence of large urban areas such with

concentrations of low income neighborhoods such as Detroit, Chicago, Philadelphia, LA, Newarkand Washington DC. Conversely, countries, states and cities with above average standards of living

have lower homicide rates, regardless of gun ownership rates.

4) Anti - gun activist quote the figure that More than 30,000 people in the US are killed by guns everyyear. What they dont tell you (or dont know) is that more than two thirds of this total figure aresuicides leaving only 8,583 actual firearm homicides (2011 FBI Uniform Crime report). It is

noteworthy that 4 States have already legalized assisted suicide so that in many cases, the suicideitself is not even a crime.

5) FBI statistic show that in most large cities approximately 70% of all firearm related homicide victimsare convicted felons meaning the vast majority of firearm deaths in those cities are Felon on Felon

crime.

6) While estimates of the frequency of use for a firearm for self defense/property defense purposes varywidely, (including some estimates as high as 2.5 million times per year) a 1994 study conducted bythe United States Justice Department under President Bill Clinton and Attorney General Janet Reno

conclude that personal firearms are used defensively by their owners approximately 1.5 million timeannually! This figure was also included in the 1997 study Guns in America which was co-authored

by anti-gun criminologists Philip Cook and Jens Ludwig. This study did not imply that the guns weredischarged 1.5 million times annually but rather that frequently the mere act of producing a weapon

by a homeowner, shop keeper, intended rape victim or a woman defending herself against a domesticpartner or ex-boy friend violating a restraining order was enough to deter the assailant or would be

robber.

7) Of the 8,583 firearm homicides in the US in 2,011, only 323 were committed with a Rifle (all types,

including so called assault weapons). While FBI does not track homicide rates by type of rifle, ifyou assume that assault style rifles were used in 20% of the rifle homicides then approximately 65

people died from assault rifles in 2011 vs. 356 people that were killed by shotguns, 1,694 that werekilled by knives or cutting instruments and 728 people that were beaten or choked to death with no

weapon at all besides hands & feet. Given these facts, an extension of the prevailing logic mustdictate that we start limiting access to hands and feet and start registering all of those people that

possess these deadly devices.


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8) According to the FBI Uniform crime statistics, there has been a 15.5% decrease in the firearmhomicides in the past 6 years (10,158 in 2005 vs. 8,583 in 2011) despite an increase in the total

firearm population of approximately 16,800,000 guns (2,800,000 new guns/year sold in the US x 6years). If there were a positive correlation between gun ownership and gun homicides, the rates

would have gone up (not down) in proportion with the increase in gun ownership.

9) The six largest mass shootings in the United States in the past 15 years (Columbine, Sandy Hook

Elementary, the Amish School shootings, Virginia Tech, Aurora Theater Shooting and the Fort Hoodshootings) had only two things in common: A mad man and the fact that they were all Gun Free

Zones. People assume that Fort Hood (a military base) was not a gun free zone but the shooterchose the Soldier Readiness Processing Center on base where personnel receive routine medical

treatment immediately prior to and on return from deployment and by military policy, this buildingwas a gun free zone. So-called assault weapons were used in two cases and pistols and shotguns used

in the other three. Conversely, there have been numerous failed attempted mass shootings that havebeen stopped by armed citizens. The two most notable were:

a. The Universal Free Life Church shooting in Colorado Springs where a parishioner who wasformer female police officer shot and disabled a madman with an AK-47 after he entered the

building and shot another church member. After being wounded and disabled, the gunman

took his own life.

b. In December of 2012, an armed patron of the Clackamas mall in Oregon, returned fire againsta man that had begun shooting people at random (with an assault style rifle) in the Mall.

Pinned down by opposing fire, the gunman took his own life.

10)The largest mass murders in US history were the 911 attacks and these too originated in Gun freeZones Commercial airliners. Post incident reports now indicate that the terrorist commandeeredall four aircraft with box cutters and in the absence of an air marshal, the passengers and crews were

defenseless against these crude weapons. Since the 911 attacks, the TSA and FAA have approved aprogram where pilots (many of whom are former military pilots) may carry loaded firearms in the

cockpit after undergoing special testing and training.

11)The second largest mass murder in the United States was the bombing of the Murrah FederalBuilding in Oklahoma City that killed 168 people including 19 children under the age of 6. No gunswere used in this mass murder, just a crude bomb made from a mixture of fertilizer and diesel fuel.

12)Armed response times: In every gun free zone shooting, the time for armed response to arrive (agood guy with a gun) was more than 10 minutes and in most cases, more than 20 minutes. Here is

the break down and how many rounds each shooter was able to fire:

a. Sandy Hook Elementary (27 dead, 2 injured weapons = 1 assault rifle, 2 pistols). Policeresponse time = 20+ minutes. The shooter fired at the victims repeatedly over an 11- 14-minute period before committing suicide prior to the arrival of police. It was reported that he

reloaded his weapons numerous time firing between 50 and 100 total rounds. The shooter

obtained the weapons illegally by stealing the weapons from his mother after he murderedher. The final report on the school shootings has not yet been released.

b. Virginia Tech (32 dead - weapons = two pistols): Police response time = 20 + Minutes. Theshooter walked casually from classroom to classroom, knocking down student erectedbarricades and shooting most in the head at close range, many with a 10 round, .22 caliber

target pistol. He actually returned to two classrooms twice, killing additional facultymembers and students on each of the two return visits. He fired a total of 203 rounds and shot

most of his victims at least three times. The shooter committed suicide approximately 12


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minutes after the shootings in Norris Hall began. The shooter obtained the weapons legallyby purchasing then from a sporting goods store after passing a State & FBI background check.

c. Amish School Shootings: October 2, 2006 (10 shot, 5 dead excluding the shooter - weapons =1 pistol, 1 shotgun). Even though a police officer arrived on the scene within 8 minutes, none

entered the building for more than 30 minutes. The victims were all killed with a 9MMhandgun

d. Columbine (13 dead, 21 wounded weapons = 2 shotguns, 1 rifle, one pistol and numerousexplosive devices): Even though police responded to the scene within 5 minutes, they did not

enter the building for 42 minutes from the time of the first shot. During a 7-minute periodwhile police were on site but assembling in the parking lot, the shooters killed another 10

students in the school library. Both shooters committed suicide 49 minutes after the shootingsbegan. The shooters were minors and obtained the weapons illegally by having and older

acquaintance buy the weapons for them (also illegal at the time). The weapons used were:

i. The rifle, with a maximum magazine capacity of 10 rounds, was fired 96 times(reloaded 10 times).

ii. The pump action shotgun was fired 25 times. It has a maximum capacity of 5 rounds

and does not contain a replaceable magazine. Reloading it required the shooter topush new rounds into the tube magazine one at a time.

iii. Sawed off, double-barreled shotgun. There is no evidence that this illegal weapon wasfired.

iv. Tec-9, 9MM pistol: Fired 55 times, numerous magazine changes

v. 99 improvised explosive devices

e. Fort Hood (13 dead, 29 wounded weapon = single pistol): The shooter fired 214 round bycontinually reloading the pistol with new pre-loaded magazines until base police officers

(Good guys with guns) arrived more than 10 minutes after the shooting started and broughtit to an end by shooting and paralyzing the shooter with their own guns. The shooter

purchased the weapon legally at a gun shop after passing the required FBI background check.

f. Aurora Theater shootings: (12 dead, 58 wounded weapons = AR-15 assault rifle, 1shotgun, and one .40 caliber Glock pistol). By police accounts, the AR-15 rifle was firedfewer than 30 times. Numerous patrons were killed or injured by buckshot rounds from the

shotgun or pistol rounds. Police response did not stop the shootings. Police arrested theshooter 7 minutes after the shooting started when they found him waiting patiently for their

arrival by his car in the parking lot. The shooter purchased the weapons legally over a periodof several weeks from a variety of gun stores, passing an FBI & State background check each

time.

13)Within this document, the term assault rifle has been put in quotes. True assault weapons are

available only to the members of the military and police forces. An assault weapon is capable offiring in either a fully automatic mode (continues firing as long as the trigger is held depressed) or in

burst mode (3 round burst every time the trigger is pulled).

a. When cited above, the so-called assault weapons had visual characteristics similar tomilitary assault weapons but functionally they were no different from hundreds of other semi-automatic (one trigger pull = 1 shot) sporting rifles used for over 50 years by hunters in the

United States.


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b. The biggest difference between the so called assault weapons cited above and their moreconventional counterparts is that the AR style weapons use a plastic frame (for weight

reduction) and may have an adjustable butt stock (to accommodate the different physicalframes of their owners) vs. the pretty fixed wooden frames of their conventional counterparts.

Both styles are capable of semi-automatic fire at similar rates and use detachable magazines.

c. The United States had a 10 year ban on so called assault rifles from September of 1994 until

September of 2004 (Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act of 1994). The law alsonumerous high capacity pistols and shotguns and the sale of high capacity magazines

(capacity in excess of 10 rounds) for all weapons. Numerous studies, including thoseconducted by the Center for Disease control (CDC). Concluded that the 10-year ban had no

measurable effect on reducing gun violence in the United States. Considering that less than1% of all firearm homicides are committed with assault style weapons (see FBI data above),

this result is not surprising. Http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Assault_Weapons_Ban

d. The belief that limiting magazine capacity to 10 rounds or less would lessen the magnitude ofthe homicides committed by these types of shooters is not borne out by the facts.

i. First, in only two of the six mass shootings cited above was an assault type rifleused

ii. Changing a magazine in any rifle or pistol takes only 2 4 seconds based on theproficiency of the shooter. The shooting time available to a shooter using three, 10round magazines instead of a single 30 round magazine would at most be 8 seconds (2

magazine changes at 4 seconds apiece). Considering that the average armed responsetime in the mass shootings cited above was more than 20 minutes, even if a shooter

changed 10 round magazines nine times (100 total rounds) subtracting 90 secondsspent changing magazines from 1,200+ seconds (20 minutes = 1,200 seconds) would

have reduced the shooters shooting time by less than 7% unless the shooter changedmagazines those while walking from class room to class room in which case 10 round

magazines would not have changed the death toll at all.

iii. Note that in three of the six cases (Sandy Hook, Virginia Tech & Columbine), theshooters all committed suicide prior to the arrival of the police and had ample time tocontinue reloading and firing their weapons had they needed or chose to. The same

holds true in the case of the Aurora Theater shooting where the gunman finished andthen waited by his car for the police to arrive. In only one case (Fort Hood) was the

shooter eventually stopped by the arrival of armed police officers.

iv. Some US Senators and Congresswomen have advocated limiting magazine capacitieson the basis that it would give the victims an opportunity to rush the shooter while hewas reloading. Again, the data does not support this hypothesis. In only one of the

six mass shootings cited in this analysis did any of the victims attempt to rush the

shooter(s) despite numerous magazine changes. In the one case where two potential(unarmed) victims attempted to rush the shooter (Fort Hood), they were both killed bythe shooter.

v. Even if you could somehow magically make all of the existing 3+ million so calledassault rifles (and all of their associated high capacity magazines) disappear

overnight, 89% of the people killed in mass shootings over the past 20 years wouldstill be dead (see attached table) and that assumption is low since it assumes that none

of the mass shooters included in the analysis would have substituted a differentweapon (or glass bottles full of gasoline) and killed at least one victim with their

alternate weapon of choice.


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14)Legislative bans in general and gun bans in particular have proved to be ineffective. The mostmemorable legislative ban in the United States was the failed attempt at alcohol prohibition from

1920 - 1933 which had little to no effect on the availability of alcohol but did result in numerousmurders amongst rival bootlegging gangs (and some police officers) and made millionaires out of

criminals such as Al Capone. Today, the manufacture, possession sale or use of methamphetamines,heroin or cocaine is illegal yet thousands of transactions involving these drugs take place every day.

History has shown that with a few exceptions, the only thing bans accomplish is to create lucrative

markets run by and for the benefit of criminals. A 1997 survey of Federal inmates convicted ofcrimes involving guns found the following:

a. 35% obtained the gun from a friend or family member

b. 23% obtained the guns from a drug dealer or other black market source

c. 9% stole the guns from someone else

d. 15% bought the guns legally before they became felons

e. The remaining 18% came from a variety of sources including pawnshops, gun shows (nowcovered by the back ground check requirement) and borrowed.

15)While there is no statistical correlation between absolute homicide rates and/or gun homicide rateswith gun availability, it could be argued that fewer guns might result in fewer gun homicides but notthe absolute number of homicides. If that were true and you cared more about the manner of death

than the likelihood of death, decreasing the availability of guns might have some small impact onhow people are killed but not on the absolute number of deaths. If the Aurora Theater shooter did not

have access to his weapons, does anyone believe he could not have achieved a comparable (orgreater) level of mayhem with 3 or 4 Molotov cocktails thrown into a crowded movie theater? If he

had used Molotov cocktails instead of guns, would there now be a cry for more controls on glassbottles and gasoline? If not, why not? Can you still buy fertilizer and diesel fuel?

16)Note that in the six mass shootings cited in this review, none of the newly proposed firearm controlswould have changed how the shooters obtained their weapons. In two cases (Columbine & Sandy

Hook) the shooter broke existing laws to obtain the weapons. In two others (Virginia Tech, & theAurora Theater shooting) unless there is legislation that makes a persons psychiatric and/or medical

records available to the FBI, the current background system did not and would not have preventedthose individuals from passing the requisite background checks. In the case of the Fort hood

shootings and the Amish school shootings, no proposed legislation would have prevented eithershooter from legally obtaining their handguns.

17)Six states have never had a ban on teachers, staff or visitors possessing legal firearms on schoolproperty. In 12 more, teachers and staff are allowed to possess guns on school property with written

permission. In more than 12 years, there has not been a single instance in any of those states of asingle shooting attributed to any of those lawful weapons nor have there been any mass shootings in

any of the K-12 public schools in those states.

18)From the data, it would appear that the emotional and political energy being directed at tighter guncontrol measures will be, even if successful, another ineffective waste of those efforts if the goal is toreduce gun violence in our schools and places of public assembly. The data would imply that the best

way to minimize (but not eliminate) mass shootings in schools is to adopt the approach that the TSA& FAA took with pilots and, on a voluntary basis, test (and periodically retest) teachers and school

staff for the mental fitness to carry (or have access to) a firearm on school property and then givethem extensive training on the proper defensive use of a firearm, whether it be a concealed hand gun

on their person (or in a lock box in the desk or mounted to the wall), or a loaded rifle in a lockedlocker with access restricted to those who have been certified to handle it. Does anyone doubt that


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the Virginia Tech or Sandy Hook shooters would have killed fewer children had they been met withan armed response within the first two minutes of their respective rampages?

If you feel that this data has any merit, I would encourage you to pass it on to your friends and electedrepresentatives both at the State and Federal levels.

See attached table for statistical summary of mass shootings


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Mass Shooting Summary: United States & Europe ranked by lethality

Mass shootings

Victimsdead

Victimswounded

AssaultRifleY/NName Date Location Weapons

Norway Youth League 7/22/2011 Norway 77 110 9 MM pistol

Mini 14 rifle .223 N

Virginia Tech 4/16/2007 Virginia 32 17 Glock 9mm pistolWalther .22 pistol N

Sandy Hook Elementary 11/30/2012 Connecticut 26 2Bushmaster XM-

15 Sig 9MMpistol Y

Luby's restaurant 10/16/1991 Texas 23 20 2 pistols N

Dunblane school 3/13/1996 Scotland 17 0 2 - 357 revolvers2 - 9MM pistols N

Erfurt massacre 4/26/2002 Germany 17 1Pump action

shotgun9mm Glock N

Ecole Polytechnique 12/6/1989 Montreal 14 14 Ruger Mini 14 N

Colombine 4/20/1999 Colorado 13 21

9mm Hi Pointrifle Pump

shotgun doublebarreled shot gun

Tec 9 pistol N

Fort Hood 11/5/2009 Texas 13 29 Pistol N

Kauhajoki school 9/23/2008 Finland 10 1 .22 Pistol N

Jokela School 11/7/2007 Finland 8 1 .22 Pistol N

Aurora Theater 7/20/2012 Colorado 12 58

12 gaugeshotgun 9MM

pistol

M&P 15 rifle Y

Cumbria 6/2/2010 England 12 11

Double barreledshotgun

Bolt action .22caliber rifle N

Sikh Temple - Oak Creek 8/5/2012 Wisconsin 6 4 9 MM pistol N

Pearl River school 10/1/1997 Mississippi 3 0 Lever action rifle N

Totals 15 283 289

Total killed with assault rifles 32 See note below

Total killed with pistols 139

Total other/unknown 112Percent killed by "assault

rifle" 11% See note below

Total US mass murders 128

US deaths from assault rifles 32Exact number of deaths by type of weapon atAurora theater not yet released. AR-15 rifle

jammed after 30 rounds. Assume 50%

US deaths from otherweapons 96

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Joe Lechtanski's Gun Facts vs. Emotion Article