Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

Dr. Louis W. Uccellini

Director, NCEP

COPC Meeting

Offutt Air Force Base, NE

May 2, 2007

2

*Science, data resolution, computer issues,… need to be addressedTop priority Science issue: Surface Emissivity

Received = All observations received operationally from providersSelected = Observations selected as suitable for use (cloud free, …)*Assimilated = Observations actually assimilated into models

Five Order of Magnitude Increases in SatelliteData Over 15 Years (2000-2015)

Cou

nt (

Mill

ions

)

Daily Satellite & Radar Observation

Count

20001990 2015

100 M obs

125 M obs

Level 2 Radar

239 M obs

Satellite Data Ingest

Re

ceived

Da

ta

Daily Percentage of Data

Ingested into ModelsS

ele

cted

Data

100%

7%

Assim

ilate

d Da

ta

239.5M

17.3M5.2M2%

*2006 DataNPOESS

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Funding FTE

NOAA $8,745 41.6

NASA $1,442 5.3

DOD $4,901 17.4

NSF/NCAR $60 0.0

Total $15,148 64.3

Infrastructure*External

R&D / R2O

Internal

R&D / R2OTotals

NOAA $2,945 $500 $5,300 $8,745

NASA $285 $500 $657 $1,442

DoD $0 $500 $4,401 $4,901

Total $3,230 $1,500 $10,358 $15,088

* Infrastructure Includes: Director, Deputy, Program Support, Travel, Pubs, Desktop IT, Forecast System Maintenance, Database Management, High-Performance Computing/Communications

HPC/C accounts for 60% of $

JCSDA Resources(In $K)

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• COSMIC capability in NCEP Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS)

• Increased AIRS data ingested (all fields of view)

• New NCEP GDAS –

• Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) analysis

• Hybrid (sigma-pressure) coordinate model

• Global and regional application with same code

• Implemented 1 May 2007

• Improved short-term forecasts

• Includes COSMIC and AIRS upgrades

Major Accomplishments:Highlights

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• Key Milestones Achieved since November 2006 COPC Meeting:• Completed WINDSAT vector wind data forecast impact

assessment using the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) – improved forecasts

• Completed AIRS forecast impact assessment using all fields of view in the NCEP GFS – improved forecasts

• Completed COSMIC forecast impact assessment using the NCEP GFS; assessment was completed within seven months of data availability; possible data QC issues under investigation

• Implemented Jason altimeter data into the NCEP operational Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS)

• Completed AMSR-E radiance forecast impact assessment using the NCEP GFS

• Completed SSMI/S radiance forecast impact assessment using the NCEP GFS

Major Accomplishments: Details

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Major Accomplishments: EMC-GMAO-STAR Code Management for Atmospheric Data Assimilation

Time

GMAO

EMC

* * EMC, GMAO System change Repository change

+ Repository Merger (new tag)

* * * * * * * *

* * * * * * *

Repository

1 3Accepted changes

2

GSI & CRTM supported

Process: similar to ECMWF & Météo-Francewho have annual code mergers

But, to promote collaboration, EMC and GMAO use same repository and mergers are more frequent (3 months)

Protocols1 – EMC, GMAO take (agreed-upon) merged

code from repository to begin work2 – EMC, GMAO incorporate developments into

repository3 – Code mergers, repository changes and

timing are NCEP’s decision

+ +

3 months

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GSI Summary

• 500 hPa heights neutral in both Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere

• Improved hurricane track forecasts beyond 3 days

•

• Forecast mid-latitude winds fit radiosondes significantly better (0-48 h)

• Bias of 200 hPa winds over East Asia substantially reduced in GSI hybrid

• GSI hybrid analysed moisture closer to radiosondes

• GSI hybrid precip over continental US slightly more skill than operational

• Rms vector wind error in pry at 200 and 850 hPa in tropics reduced

Ops

GSI

OpsGSI

8

GSI 6h Forecast Error – June 2006

Operations GSI Parallel

SSI – large 6h forecast errorGSI – well balanced incrementFields leads to small 6 h error

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~5 day forecasts from the operational GFS (top left) and the hybrid/GSI GFS (top right) and verifying analysis (bottom) on 1 April 1200 UTC

ExampleOf 5 dayForecast

10 m windValid

1 April 2007NCEP

ParallelSystem

GSIAnalysis

ParallelForecast

OpsForecast

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Impact Study with COSMIC

• 500 hPa height anomaly correlation as a function of forecast day for two different experiments: – PRYnc (assimilation of

operational obs ) – PRYc (PRYnc + COSMIC)

• Approximately 1,000 COSMIC profiles were assimilated per day

• Results with COSMIC are very encouraging

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Operational Parallel

Total Ozone Forecast Errors(courtesy Craig Long – CPC)

NC

EP

Implem

entation

August 2006Ozone Physics

• Uses algorithms contributed by NRL through JCSDA • Adapted by EMC, evaluated by CPC

• Removes low tropical bias in total ozone in GFS

NCEP / NRL Interaction

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Satellite Data Status – May 2007

Jason Altimeter Implemented into NCEP GODAS

AIRS with All Fields of View Implemented – 1 May 2007

MODIS Winds Implemented– 1 May 2007

NOAA-18 AMSU-A Implemented– 1 May 2007

NOAA-18 MHS Implemented– 1 May 2007

TOPEX,ERS-2 ENVISAT ALTIMETER Test and Development (Envisat) ERS-2 (dead) TOPEX implemented in NCEP GODAS

SSMI/S Radiances Preliminary forecast assessment completed

GOES 1xa imagery Forecast Assessment in progress

METOP AMSU-A, MHS, HIRS Forecast Assessment in progress

COSMIC/CHAMP Implemented (COSMIC – 1 May); CHAMP in prep.

MODIS Winds v2. Test and Development

WINDSAT Preliminary forecast assessment completed

AMSR/E Radiances Preliminary forecast assessment completed

AIRS/MODIS Sounding Channels Assim. Data in Preparation

GOES – SW Winds To be Tested

GOES Hourly Winds To be Tested

GOES 11 and 12 Clear Sky Rad. Assim(6.7µm) To be Tested

MTSAT 1R Wind Assim. Data in Preparation

AURA OMI * Test and Development

FY – 2C * Data in Preparation

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Status of the JCSDA MOA

• NOAA, Air Force, and Navy legal reviews have been completed• Awaiting resolution of one remaining issue with NASA regarding the number of signatories• The MOA should be ready for signature within 30 days after successful resolution of signatory issue